The fourth and final leaders’ debate will be broadcast on the Seven Network from 8pm this evening, to be moderated by political editor Mark Riley. We can also presumably expect a Newspoll result from The Australian late this afternoon or early this evening, that having been the case on every other Sunday of the campaign, unless it’s been decided to handle things differently in the final week.
• The Australian Community Media newspaper group has published YouGov polling of ten regional seats from an overall sample of 3000. With due caution for the small individual sample sizes and error margins of around 5.5%, the results are as follows:
| L-NP | ALP | GRN | ON | IND | OTH | |
| Ballarat | 23.8% | 38.5% | 17.7% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% |
| Braddon | 30.6% | 33.2% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 15.7% | 6.2% |
| Calare | 25.1% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 13.9% | 38.9% | 8.8% |
| Dickson | 40.3% | 24.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 16.5% | 6.0% |
| Eden-Monaro | 26.0% | 42.2% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% |
| Gilmore | 33.5% | 36.2% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 4.7% |
| Hunter | 14.6% | 35.8% | 8.8% | 25.3% | 0.5% | 15.0% |
| Lyons | 27.8% | 33.4% | 13.0% | 4.4% | 9.3% | 12.1% |
| Paterson | 25.9% | 30.9% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 15.9% | 1.6% |
| Wannon | 33.2% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 35.7% | 6.8% |
| AVERAGE | 28.1% | 29.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 6.9% |
| Swing | -10.0% | -2.2% | +0.8% | +4.8% |
Which is obviously none too encouraging for the Coalition, suggesting the loss of Calare and Wannon to independents and Braddon to Labor, and failure in the crucial Labor marginals of Gilmore and Lyons. The results for Labor-held Hunter suggest One Nation are at least competitive (I haven’t troubled to record Trumpet of Patriots’ numbers, but it may be noted that their candidate for the seat, Prime Minister-presumptive Suellen Wrightson, was on all of 0.5%), and Labor’s primary vote in Paterson is low enough to be of concern for them.
• Paul Sakkal of the Nine Newspapers reports that differing viewpoints within the Labor and Coalition camps about the state of play could be “partly explained by the more optimistic polling coming from Dutton’s pollster, Mike Turner of Freshwater Strategy, which contrasts with the data from Labor pollster Campbell White, who also runs Newspoll”. This is reflected in the published polling of their respective outfits: Freshwater Strategy’s poll last week for the Financial Review had a tie on two-party preferred and the Coalition leading Labor 39% to 32% on the primary vote, while Newspoll had Labor leading 52-48 and the Coalition’s primary vote lead at 35% to 34%. So while the Coalition has been talking up its chances in Whitlam and Gorton, on respective Labor margins of 8.4% and 10.0%, Labor is “preparing to start spending on ads in Liberal-held seats such as Deakin and Menzies”.
• Paul Sakkal’s report further relates that Peter Dutton will spend much of the last week of the campaign on “a blitz of teal-held inner-city seats he has shunned to date”, with the Coalition believing “Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong and Mackellar are tough but winnable seats, in that order”. On Friday, Sakkal’s colleague David Crowe related that Dutton had been avoiding such seats “for good reason”: “Liberals admit that he will drag down the vote for a Liberal candidate in a teal seat if he turns up at a polling station”.
• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times cites unspecified “sources” saying former state Nationals leader Mia Davies is running third in the new Perth fringe seat of Bullwinkel, leaving Liberal candidate Matt Moran the favourite, although Labor sources consider their candidate Trish Cook has a “healthy chance”.
• The Poll Bludger’s Charts of the Day (I’ll at least try and make this a regular feature) make an effort to determine if there has been any particular pattern to voting intention by age cohort over the past three years, though I’m not sure how illuminating they are. For three pollsters that have provided such breakdowns with any kind of regularity, these record the difference between each cohort’s voting intention and the overall results, so as to highlight change in relative rather than absolute terms. Only Essential Research’s data was voluminous enough to make trend calculations worthwhile. Unfortunately, anything vaguely interesting for one pollster was uncorroborated or even contradicted by the others. Perhaps I’ll have more luck when I get around to doing gender. I did observe last week that the more interesting story here – namely a cavernous gender gap among young people – would require age-by-gender data, of which very little exists.
‘frednk says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 8:12 am
Boerwar
I think you at least should stick with the facts. Chines peak increase in Coal generation occurred in 2007 with an increase of 88.6 GW., the rate of increase in 2024 was 30.5 GW, the rate has declined.
TO put this in context. The solar install in 2024 was 92GW, there wind install was 42 GW, Hydro 2.9GW., Nuclear 2.3GW.
As I said in previous posts, how you present this data reflects your prejudices, not the data.’
==============================
Not one of your facts contradicts my facts. They are adjacent facts. (And good on China for its massive investment in renewables on all fronts.)
My problem is that the China’s apologists simply refuse to countenance the mention of ANY critical statements about china.
The routine response includes personal attacks, deflections, red herrings, whataboutism and context.
The fact is that in the face of climate science, china burns more coal than the rest of the world combined. Further, China is ramping up its coal-fired capacity.
The fact is that China’s coal burning emits a fifth of the world’s CO2.
How anybody can be silent on that is one of the world’s mysteries.
frednk @ #49 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 8:23 am
I think you mean Pi. P1 no longer posts on China, as it only encourages the troll.
Looks like the good folk in the Hunter don’t want a nuclear power station.
———————————
I’d suggest the good folk have a good, hard working MP with a backbone these days instead of a whining windsock.
Holden Hillbilly thanks for the foreign roundup. Sadly as I suggested in my posts last night and on Friday night, the Ukraine peace process is going nowhere under Trump. Donald is finally admitting it.
“Trump says he doubts Putin’s willingness to end the war in Ukraine, a day after saying a deal was close:”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-doubts-putins-willingness-135648095.html
Macron and Starmer’s plans to have a ceasefire along the current frontline with EU military presence to deter further attacks is the only current realistic option. IMO this will probably lead to a Korean peninsula style frozen conflict, with Ukraine never getting its Russian occupied territory back.
Braddon might be caused by the little reported story that the LNP candidate who sold himself as a battler actually has a 10 properties at $5m for the whole portfolio.
I mentioned it when the story dropped, but apart from a very small single day story in the local newspaper the Advocate it got almost zero mention.
As we all said, no way was Trump going to be sat in the 3rd row for the Pope’s funeral.
The fact is that China’s coal burning emits a fifth of the world’s CO2.
How anybody can be silent on that is one of the world’s mysteries.
The fact is, no one is silent on it. However, YOU are silent on the facts about what China is doing about moving its economy away from that scenario.
I’m no fan of China’s imperialist ambitions, but at least I am not constantly cavilling at the gargantuan efforts, yes to make a profit, to transition their own country, and facilitate the rest of the world, away from the use of fossil fuels. You are.
Confessions says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 8:33 am
1000% Vatican tariff threat..
However seating was supposed to be in alphabetical order per French language spelling of the pertinent country.. has anyone wasted their time checking if this occurred?
Thank you ‘fess and HoldenHillbilly! I really enjoy my Sunday’s off. And your differing perspectives reinvigorates the Dawn Patrol. 🙂
Never really understood how braddon ended up so heavily liberal with its industrial base.
Sceptic:
The NY Times has this photo:
Those up ticks in green votes give me some hope for the future despite the despair reading the comments of you Labor voters who really believe that the people who worked essential jobs in the pandemic deserve to be living in tents while white collar work from homers who could all be shot tomorrow and society would continue to function as normal deserve housing and cost of living relief fills me with. Especially as we’re meant to die because you guys think it’s better that people are dead than anyone appear to be vaguely left of centre.
Im not sure why I am meant to die in the streets and be grateful for it. But I am looking forward to watching the ALP and LNP try and explain that over the next 3 years as people realise the social contract is dead and voting is not the only option we have to deal with corrupt politicians and those who support them. Violence begets violence and denying people housing/healthcare so they die is pretty violent.
The AEC says 2,395,245 early votes have been received as the close of pre-poll voting yesterday, and roughly half a million postal votes. That brings the total number of votes cast so far to about 2.9 million, or 16 per cent of the electoral roll.
Speaking of polls, these breakout questions in YouGov deserve attention. In the past nine months the percentage of voters who think Australia can rely on USA for security has fallen 25%. Now 66% do not believe we can rely on USA including 69% of Labor voters.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-27/yougov-poll-united-states-alliance-donald-trump-relationship/105210660
AsI have said before AUKUS does not defend Australia. It also does not win Labor any votes either.
The same poll showed high negativity about USA’s economic impact on Australia.
If the technical and economic arguments against AUKUS won’t shift Labor policy perhaps the electoral ones will.
Player One says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 8:26 am
frednk @ #49 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 8:23 am
P1’s post on Chine was factual. In today’s world that alone make it worthwhile.
I think you mean Pi. P1 no longer posts on China, as it only encourages the troll.
Sorry. I will admit I was surprised you posted something factual.
Another miserable, rain-sodden day here on the Glorious Mid Coast of NSW.
Surrounded by three lakes, then by the Pacific Ocean, and all of that boxed in by a range of littoral hills that corrals and focuses rainfall like a demented fire hose, right onto our little village, whenever there’s shithouse weather on, we cop it. 20mm in 15 minutes? Ridiculous, but true!
The other things that are ridiculous are the barrage of YouTube and TV ads by an ever more desperate Suellen Trumpet telling us she will stop immigration, tell the aborigines to piss off with their “Welcomes To Countrys”, provide housing and jobs for everybody, cancel Global Warming, and dig up that runway in the Pilbara the Chinese are planning on using when they invade, because Labor and the Coalition want to destroy Australia. On, and bloody on, she drones, two out of three ad breaks, even beating the bewildering Sportsbet three-minute sagas about some Aussie UFC fighter who wants to be a record producer.
The Nats are also running ads about how a vote for a generic independent is really just a vote for Albo, and we don’t want THAT.
We have a pretty hi-profile, male independent candidate up here in Lyne. Jeremy Miller, said independent, is the Deputy Mayor of Mid Coast Council and therefore well-known in the seat, as opposed to the local Nat lady chancer, whom no-one’s ever heard of after the long-term Nat incumbent, David Gillespie retired.
Reports from Labor sources at Pre-Poll say Jeremy Miller is aceing it. This may be just jealousy (as most of Mr Miller’s poll workers are Labor moonlighters). Nevertheless, the Nats are sure acting as though he’s a threat, and Lyne has a bit of a history of returning independents (cf. Rob Oakeshott).
We can only hope. Lyne sure needs a makeover, especially in roads and ESPECIALLY as regards GP availability. Most GPs up here have closed their books. They are not accepting new patients. That’s a crisis situation.
Trump derangement syndrome on here peeps forget Aussie shares up now since libration tariff day.
Mind you those tariffs are going nowhere so market will tank big time when it wakes up hopefully not before Monday week libs need another good week with clear air like this week.
Petrol price bowser boy a winner.Have labor peaked a week or two early?
Mind you the delayed Greens balance of power aka state gov announced last week in WA may have played into the hands of coalition as the Nats leader was here in Perth smashing out the prospect of Greens state and fed balance of power.
Lots of fifo about obviously in WA whose mining and gas jobs under threat and unions back on mine sites will swing votes.
No wonder Cook is covering for Albo.
Get ya ass over here Dutton and spend quality time here.
———
That PP is saying this strongly suggests he shouldn’t.
“Socratessays:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 8:47 am
Speaking of polls, these breakout questions in YouGov deserve attention. In the past nine months the percentage of voters who think Australia can rely on USA for security has fallen 25%. Now 66% do not believe we can rely on USA including 69% of Labor voters.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-27/yougov-poll-united-states-alliance-donald-trump-relationship/105210660
AsI have said before AUKUS does not defend Australia. It also does not win Labor any votes either.
The same poll showed high negativity about USA’s economic impact on Australia.
If the technical and economic arguments against AUKUS won’t shift Labor policy perhaps the electoral ones will.”
Labor will shift with diplomatic finesse, not for expediency in an election campaign.
Strategically, the best outcome for Australia is we get out of AUKUS due to an American default
Electorally, the best conditions to put Australia on a more balanced and independent diplomatic settings is that the LNP are routed.
The worst outcome for sustained change for pretty much everything is if there is any plausible perception that Adam Bandt and Max MC are driving policy
Today’s Sunday Mail (Brisbane) front page:
‘I HAVE A SOFTER SIDE’
Guess who?
Oliver Sutton @ #69 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 8:57 am
But he also has a bloody hard-arsked side as well. 😐
That ON is on 25.3% in Hunter and 14.2% in Paterson proved my concerns that ON is competitive in Hunter. Although, nobody is polling Shortland, my gut feeling says ON is polling well to in Shortland.
This regional poll also tallies with other National YouGov poll, where ON was 10.5% (due to which nadia was absolutely shocked).
What it means is that ON is polling well in Regional and Rural QLD areas. I sm not sure that is because L-NP has swapped preferences with ON. But ON numbers are concerningly high.
In NSW State election, ALP did not get majority even with 54-46 2PP in its favour. Also, another thing is in NSW State election, other parties got about 30% PV.
In this poll major parties are only getting 57.6% . That means others are getting 42.4%
Socrates @ #63 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 8:17 am
What are the mechanics of changing this? There are signed agreements, no?
Is there an early out clause? Wait for a breach from the US? Negotiate an end to the contract (negotiate with Trump?)? Just walk away (from a revenge fiend like trump?)? Wait for midterms – if Trump goes full autocrat, use that as an out?
While ONP in Hunter may do quite well and beat out the nats I don’t think they’d be close to those published numbers. But I’ll take the rest gladly ( Gilmore )!
From last night :
A long day today for LB. Headed up the F3 to Cessnock to spend the last half of the day with big Dan on pre poll. I was quite taken by his universal levels of personal popularity and the enormous goodwill extended to him by practically all and sundry domiciled into the electorate.
I dare say he may be the most popular local mp in the reps- eclipsing that of bobby Katter in Kennedy. It doesn’t go more than about 2-3 minutes without a honk and enthused declaration of approval towards Dan from a passing vehicle. Every 3rd voter stopping to thank Dan for something he has helped them with be it an NDIS issue or the signage at a dodgy local intersection.
The magnitude of his support up there leads me to think he may well win on primaries alone. It was interesting to note that ONP ‘volunteers’ easily numbered or bettered the nats and a complete absence of the self-declared ‘next PM of Australia’, Sue Ellen of the trumpets. Not only did she not show up, she had no workers on the booth or any corflutes.
If the Hunter is anything to go by the LNP would be lucky to get through the other side with a low 50’s in the reps.
It was truely stunning to see. And to top it all off we were even treated to a delicious burger by the big man. My colloquial take away is that the LNP and Dutton are in deep, deep shit. The news limited exit polling published may not be a rouse after all.
Boerwar
“My problem is that the China’s apologists simply refuse to countenance the mention of ANY critical statements about china.”
No, your problem is your stupid obsession with China. It’s now at McCarthyist levels of crazy
Maybe look to switch it up now and again… Maybe have a go at the Saudi’s for a while, or perhaps the Sudanese or Congolese?
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 7:03 am
Amy Remeikis has an interesting take on the election in The New Daily:
“I haven’t flip-flopped. I said no originally, then I said yes, then I have said no and I’ve stuck to it!”
Pauline Hanson’s 2018 ‘Schrödinger’s denial’ that she ‘flip flopped’ on supporting the Turnbull government’s proposed company tax cuts exists on the outer rim of the collective memory of Australian politics.
Both known and unknown, and so humorously expected it barely rates remembering.
It has, however, also been the guiding principle for how the Coalition has handled this election campaign.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/04/26/coalition-election-fiasco
”
So what Amy is saying that LNP became ON in its nature and characteristics. No bloody wonder that Dutton is flip flopping like pan cake.
Leftie
Where in Hunter?
My guess is ON is strongest in the rust bucket villages around Cessnock and Kurri Kurri – a significant but not very large part of the electorate
Sceptic @ #58 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 8:37 am
Sceptic
I think there was an explanation in the Age article on the funeral. Sorry I am in hospital on my mobile that I never to make cut and paste properly
We’ve had ~80mm of rain in the last 24 hours on the lovely Temperate Rainforest area of the Cenny Coast of NSW. And it’s still bucketing down. 🙁
SA and Victoria, you’re welcome to it! 😯
Insiders doing these stupid, curated Vox pops about leaders
Oakshott Cessnock prepoll.
I’ve 25 years or so of being around this sort of stuff I’ve never seen anything even close to the big Dan phenomena in a seat anywhere
I am NO ‘China apologist’. Any perusal of the record on PB would show that.
But I’m no intransigent old fool who can’t see the wood for the trees about China either.
The first 15 minutes of Insiders has been pathetic!
Speers says the Liberals believe the lost votes to the RWNJ will come back – their polling is better than the published polls
Quiet confidence that the quiet voters will come back. Grist for the journos who need a horse race.
Lefty et al – I live in Maitland, post rarely but have posted a few times over the months that Dan Repacholi was never in danger in Hunter because he is hard working and very popular.
Paterson is going to be interesting as Maitland mayor Philip Penfold will have the majority of the 16% independent vote and it will be interesting where his preferences go. He has an Instagram stating “make up your own mind on preferences”. If the MIA Swanson is returned it will be due to his voters preferencing Labor over the libs IMHO.
But not seeing the groundswell they expected to see – blaming international events
Labor closing on improving Medicare – 24/7 triaging nurse free service
Geez, Leweez!
60 mm in the rain gauge since 8.30am.
Speers going for the gotchas with Mark Butler, who is too smart for that stunt
Speers goes for too many gotchas with everyone.
Desperate Speers
“I want to be significant” he screeches with every moment.
Butler is performing better here:
‘Peter Dutton wants to Americanise the health system – and Peter Dutton was voted by doctors the worst Health Minister in the history of the system’
The way to answer a gotcha…
Next up is the lazy Bridget McKenzie. How will Speers handle her, I wonder?
Dan Repacholi definitely seems a good fit in Hunter has that nice Aussie bloke next door vibe, he can relate to people in ways many career politicians can’t.
BK @ #82 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 9:18 am
Are they trying to generate a frisson of interest in the outcome?
Propaganda in the media that the federal lib/nats are coming back is a repeat of what they tried in the last week of 2022 federal election campaign ,
on election day
The federal lib/nats combined primary vote didn’t come back into the 40%’s it was 35.7% at the 2022 federal election
Did Speers land a single punch?
sprocket_ @ #85 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 9:19 am
A poor workman always blames his tools.
sprocket_ @ #83 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 9:18 am
I have to say that this is what concerns me, plus the number of so-called ‘soft’ voters who haven’t yet decided.
Well Terminator you know exactly what I’m talking about then!.
On a side note Dan got the burgers from ‘ Burgerfiend’ in Cessnock. I was genuinely impressed with it and reminded me of the five points at north Sydney that I got to enjoy for a period when they opened that the bottom of my office.