The fourth and final leaders’ debate will be broadcast on the Seven Network from 8pm this evening, to be moderated by political editor Mark Riley. We can also presumably expect a Newspoll result from The Australian late this afternoon or early this evening, that having been the case on every other Sunday of the campaign, unless it’s been decided to handle things differently in the final week.
• The Australian Community Media newspaper group has published YouGov polling of ten regional seats from an overall sample of 3000. With due caution for the small individual sample sizes and error margins of around 5.5%, the results are as follows:
| L-NP | ALP | GRN | ON | IND | OTH | |
| Ballarat | 23.8% | 38.5% | 17.7% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% |
| Braddon | 30.6% | 33.2% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 15.7% | 6.2% |
| Calare | 25.1% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 13.9% | 38.9% | 8.8% |
| Dickson | 40.3% | 24.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 16.5% | 6.0% |
| Eden-Monaro | 26.0% | 42.2% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% |
| Gilmore | 33.5% | 36.2% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 4.7% |
| Hunter | 14.6% | 35.8% | 8.8% | 25.3% | 0.5% | 15.0% |
| Lyons | 27.8% | 33.4% | 13.0% | 4.4% | 9.3% | 12.1% |
| Paterson | 25.9% | 30.9% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 15.9% | 1.6% |
| Wannon | 33.2% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 35.7% | 6.8% |
| AVERAGE | 28.1% | 29.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 6.9% |
| Swing | -10.0% | -2.2% | +0.8% | +4.8% |
Which is obviously none too encouraging for the Coalition, suggesting the loss of Calare and Wannon to independents and Braddon to Labor, and failure in the crucial Labor marginals of Gilmore and Lyons. The results for Labor-held Hunter suggest One Nation are at least competitive (I haven’t troubled to record Trumpet of Patriots’ numbers, but it may be noted that their candidate for the seat, Prime Minister-presumptive Suellen Wrightson, was on all of 0.5%), and Labor’s primary vote in Paterson is low enough to be of concern for them.
• Paul Sakkal of the Nine Newspapers reports that differing viewpoints within the Labor and Coalition camps about the state of play could be “partly explained by the more optimistic polling coming from Dutton’s pollster, Mike Turner of Freshwater Strategy, which contrasts with the data from Labor pollster Campbell White, who also runs Newspoll”. This is reflected in the published polling of their respective outfits: Freshwater Strategy’s poll last week for the Financial Review had a tie on two-party preferred and the Coalition leading Labor 39% to 32% on the primary vote, while Newspoll had Labor leading 52-48 and the Coalition’s primary vote lead at 35% to 34%. So while the Coalition has been talking up its chances in Whitlam and Gorton, on respective Labor margins of 8.4% and 10.0%, Labor is “preparing to start spending on ads in Liberal-held seats such as Deakin and Menzies”.
• Paul Sakkal’s report further relates that Peter Dutton will spend much of the last week of the campaign on “a blitz of teal-held inner-city seats he has shunned to date”, with the Coalition believing “Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong and Mackellar are tough but winnable seats, in that order”. On Friday, Sakkal’s colleague David Crowe related that Dutton had been avoiding such seats “for good reason”: “Liberals admit that he will drag down the vote for a Liberal candidate in a teal seat if he turns up at a polling station”.
• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times cites unspecified “sources” saying former state Nationals leader Mia Davies is running third in the new Perth fringe seat of Bullwinkel, leaving Liberal candidate Matt Moran the favourite, although Labor sources consider their candidate Trish Cook has a “healthy chance”.
• The Poll Bludger’s Charts of the Day (I’ll at least try and make this a regular feature) make an effort to determine if there has been any particular pattern to voting intention by age cohort over the past three years, though I’m not sure how illuminating they are. For three pollsters that have provided such breakdowns with any kind of regularity, these record the difference between each cohort’s voting intention and the overall results, so as to highlight change in relative rather than absolute terms. Only Essential Research’s data was voluminous enough to make trend calculations worthwhile. Unfortunately, anything vaguely interesting for one pollster was uncorroborated or even contradicted by the others. Perhaps I’ll have more luck when I get around to doing gender. I did observe last week that the more interesting story here – namely a cavernous gender gap among young people – would require age-by-gender data, of which very little exists.
Newspoll wow is an old twitter meme where people would post newspoll wow when there was no newspoll to fuck up the trending hashtags.
When twitter was “good”
Oswald Cobblepot getting hit with tariffs is surely going to affect drink prices at the Iceberg Lounge.
twitter was never good. it was only not shit.
Wat Tyler @ #544 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 5:30 pm
I’m not so sure of that. From what I gather, there’s a big difference in Federal and Provincial Canadian politics. For example Doug Ford might be popular in Ontario, but to win Federally he’d have to make gains in Quebec, British Columbia, the Atlantic Provinces while staying popular in the Conservative heartland in the Prairies.
It’d probably be something like if Gladys Berejiklian became Federal leader of the Liberal party here after her 2019 election victory but before she resigned over the ICAC stuff.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-27/nfl-draft-denver-broncos-punter-jeremy-crawshaw/105220962
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Maybe a new career for Centre? Who knew Australia’s gambling obsession could pay off with Australian punters being hired by NFL teams. And I thought our obsession with pro gambling was over the top.
Wait, seems punter means something different in the US, where is the tariff on importing Aussies competing against local players – Trump needs to stop it, next there will be those meddling Canadians playing in the NFL/NHL.
Dr Fumbles McStupid wrote @
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 5:31 pm
As soon as the Antarctic denizens can put together a credible Olympic team I’ll be the first to advocate for a sixth ring. They’d have to be a shoo-in for the 100m freestyle.
EDIT: I haven’t posted here for a while and I just tried to change my nickname, but it looks like it didn’t take. I don’t want to be mistaken for “Paul A” – which has already happened and it’s rather annoying
lol Dr Fumbles McStupid
I’ve watched so many old timey British and Australian TV police dramas I just think of punters as anyone out in public.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-27/federal-election-2025-live-campaign-albanese-dutton/105220030
Working holiday visas to be exempt from Coalition plan to cut migration
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Excellent work, knew he wouldn’t let those struggling families reliant on their au pairs to be disadvantaged
TTT, I was seconded to Treasury in Canberra in 1971 and Ian Wilson was the MP for Sturt when I knew him in Canberra circa 1971-1973 both inclusive
I returned to Adelaide at the time of Whitlam’s second electoral success the result confirmed the day I settled and moved into my house (30 day settlements at that time)
Rex, ‘Newspoll wow !’, very Peter van Onselen!
Dr Fumbles McStupid wrote @
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 5:31 pm
What about Antarctica? Shirley the penguins and sea lions deserve a ring, especially after being hit with Tariffs
As soon as the Antarctic denizens can put together a credible Olympic team I’ll be the first to advocate for a sixth ring. They’d have to be a shoo-in for the 100m freestyle.
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Don’t forget the winter games, luge, bobsleigh an Antarctic bobsleigh team of walrus would be hard to beat – if they could get in the sleigh.
Watching my team Hawks routing Eagles on 7plus every goal goes to a lib,labor or advance ad that one is Weak,Woke and Broke referring to labor!
lmao yabba
looks like he’s had dewlap reduction surgery from that angle
Georgia and Kazakhstan also straddle the continents of Europe and Asia. By Georgia I refer to the nation (a.k.a. Sakartvelo) in the Caucasus, not the US state of that name. One cannot be too careful.
Long may the RWNJ’s advocate their parties go further right. It’s not what the vast majority want.
James Campbell wrote a more downbeat article today about the Liberals and the polls. Didn’t he write an article talking up the Liberals chances just the other day? Sure, he acknowledged Labor leading, but emphasized the Liberals had a chance to claw back support. Today’s article suggested the Liberals were in trouble if they didn’t court the young vote. But Campbell’s see-sawing analysis makes it feel his first article wasn’t genuine and either designed to please the Liberal readership or was doing the media’s bidding, talking up the two-race contest.
Omar Comin’ says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 5:45 pm
lol Dr Fumbles McStupid
I’ve watched so many old timey British and Australian TV police dramas I just think of punters as anyone out in public.
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Never thought of that but yeah, Sweeney, Minder, Fools and Horses and the all time classic “Bargearse”
Ok, you made me look, Schroedinger’s blue bagger supporter has now shot their chances of winning as they are currently 12 pts up 5 minutes into the 4th, I reckon a 15pt loss by the blues.
I think newspoll will leave us hanging tonight, and just do one last pre-election one.
Dutton statement saying ABC and Guardian being hate media indicates that he is not handling the pressure well.
Won’t go down well with most voters.
Omar Comin’ says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 5:50 pm
lmao yabba
looks like he’s had dewlap reduction surgery from that angle
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They picked the cartoon Trump mouth as well – could the Granuard be deliberately trolling RWNJs
Dr Fumbles McStupid good list there
Bargearse lol… The Chinese takeaway was called the “Golden Retriever” xD
Doug Ford won’t make the move from Provincial politics to Federal any time soon in Canada. He is in power in Ontario for at least 4 more years. Where as taking over the federal Conservative leadership at this stage will mean 4 years of being in opposition. Governing is more fun than opposition.
The sixth Olympic Ring represents the “continent” of Oceania. This comprises Australia, NZ, PNG and the Pacific Islands. West Papua, being part of Indonesia, is Generally considered to be part of Asia, but it used to be considered to be in Oceania.
We could just throw Antarctica in with Oceania. No need for another ring.
Dutton statement saying ABC and Guardian being hate media indicates that he is not handling the pressure well.
Won’t go down well with most voters.
@Spence
Joe Gildebrand wrote today that he thought it suggested anger. It was an odd comment, but it may not have been done strategically to appeal to the One Nation/Trumpets of Patriots vote like some have speculated. And instead, Peter Dutton was lashing out.
Does the continent of Atlantis get a ring?
Speaking of Canada – Ramming attack in Vancouver. NDP leader was on the scene.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vehicle-hits-crowd-filipino-festival-lapu-lapu-day-block-party-1.7519778
When did the Olympics get a sixth ring?
The colour code is said to be:
Blue Oceania
Green Europe
Black Africa
Red The Americas
Yellow Asia
I think the Falangist who used to head the Olympics would have approved of this meaning
Hi All,
Does anyone have a reference / link for Dutton saying “The coalition will be able to claim victory by 6pm on election night.”
I have not been able to confirm this so far.
Omar Comin’ says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 6:00 pm
Dr Fumbles McStupid good list there
Bargearse lol… The Chinese takeaway was called the “Golden Retriever” xD
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“I want a Pizza Woggo” – then on the teletype Pizza Van hijacked By Christopher Skase
Or ”they forgot your fries”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbAvfdAtD58
”Does the continent of Atlantis get a ring?”
Most definitely, were it to reappear…
Dr Fumbles McStupid wrote @
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 5:48 pm
Good idea, Scandinavia’s had an unfair advantage for far too long.
Vancouver attack looks to be an incel attack perpetrated by a south east asian man.
Atlantis does have a ring, unfortunately the Americans can only access it through their stargate if they have a Zero Point Module.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeN_OSmZvG4
I doubt Presidentrump could secure one.
“Hi All, Does anyone have a reference / link for Dutton saying “The coalition will be able to claim victory by 6pm on election night.” I have not been able to confirm this so far.”
The only reference I can find is a Guardian post from 11am, but they don’t specifically quote it or have a video, they simply state that he “predicted” it.
Also, the polls close at 6pm? How is anyone going to claim victory right on 6pm?
Labor $1.13 with Sportsbet now. Libs out to $6.00. That $2.50 I got on Labor five weeks ago is looking better by the day. It’s going to be my biggest collect of the year.
D&M asked whether anyone has a link to a Dutton comment about claiming victory by 6pm.
I read it earlier (about 5 30pm) in the Guardian live blog, but it was not in quote marks – just part of the narrative It’s no longer there, so they seem to have recanted.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/27/peter-dutton-criticised-as-illiberal-for-calling-abc-and-the-guardian-hate-media-ntwnfb
Edit: OK, found it again. At 1106am in the live blog. I think I can link to it here: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/apr/27/australia-election-2025-live-updates-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-debate-labor-liberal-cost-of-living-medicare-telehealth-nsw-vic-ntwnfb
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 6:19 pm
Atlantis does have a ring, unfortunately the Americans can only access it through their stargate if they have a Zero Point Module.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeN_OSmZvG4
I doubt Presidentrump could secure one.
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Even Trump wouldn’t risk a war with human-form replicators to secure one, you would hope.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/27/trump-poll-approval-rating-100-days/
Trump 2.0 is less popular than Trump 1.0 who was already the least popular president in their first 100 days.
That’s quite an achievement.
B. S. Fairman wrote @
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 6:06 pm
A friend of mine in Vancouver just messaged me about this. Seems to have been a deliberate attack. Horrific. She warned me not to click on the videos
I’m assuming this newspoll isn’t good for the libs with it not being published before tonight’s debate. The Murdoch press going hard with positive libs and negative independent and labor stories all day is another indicator
Bystander says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 6:23 pm
Labor $1.13 with Sportsbet now. Libs out to $6.00. That $2.50 I got on Labor five weeks ago is looking better by the day. It’s going to be my biggest collect of the year.
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I don’t gamble on principle, but at the time I thought those odds were a gift once uncertainty became rife under Trump and people would start looking for safety with the devil they knew. Subject to what happens next weekend it’s a super gift. Mind you, I don’t think anybody could predict the complete screw-up of the Coalition campaign, which reinforced the massive risk of Dutton against the current government.
Dutton’s comment about winning the election:
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/australian-election-2025-albanese-dutton-on-day-31-of-may-3-election-campaign/news-story/7940244bf4c58dea026eaa303ba07453
I forgot the election debate tonight, Dutton on TV should reduce Lib primary another half a %
Here is another datapoint from the AFR, who have been analysing YouTube spending of the majors…
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/want-to-know-where-the-election-will-be-won-or-lost-follow-the-money-20250425-p5luao
@Fess – so very very conditional then 🙂
Also – who cares? Random venting from a LOTO in the last week of the campaign.
And Olympic Rings? My God this place fixates on some weird things.
Trump has the biggest and best Zero Point Module in the world… In fact forget the stuff about zero. His is a 100-point gold-plated module.
And here it is in case this is disappeared from news.com.au
Spence
“ Dutton statement saying ABC and Guardian being hate media indicates that he is not handling the pressure well.
Won’t go down well with most voters.”
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Just catching up on today’s political events after a pleasant afternoon out.
Incredible for Dutton to think this, much less say it. Thinking it is a huge self-delusion from a man who has spent three years avoiding the National Press Club. Even his ABC appearances, including the debate, have been with former Sky News figure David Speers. So this is obviously pure sour grapes from a failing leader.
Yet to say it is even worse than thinking it. Even if he actually believed it, what does he gain by saying it? ABC and the Guardian have huge audiences. Are those people fond of hate-speech?
And what should political journalists think of this? Does he want them to self censor bad news from Dutton’s campaign? The fact is Dutton’s campaign has been riddled with errors and he has gone backwards. You rarely win friends shooting the messenger.
@Entropy at 6:25pm
I’m not so sure, he’s married to one for a start, although one built by the Russians is probably a very early prototype.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6NqscIsidQ