The fourth and final leaders’ debate will be broadcast on the Seven Network from 8pm this evening, to be moderated by political editor Mark Riley. We can also presumably expect a Newspoll result from The Australian late this afternoon or early this evening, that having been the case on every other Sunday of the campaign, unless it’s been decided to handle things differently in the final week.
• The Australian Community Media newspaper group has published YouGov polling of ten regional seats from an overall sample of 3000. With due caution for the small individual sample sizes and error margins of around 5.5%, the results are as follows:
| L-NP | ALP | GRN | ON | IND | OTH | |
| Ballarat | 23.8% | 38.5% | 17.7% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% |
| Braddon | 30.6% | 33.2% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 15.7% | 6.2% |
| Calare | 25.1% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 13.9% | 38.9% | 8.8% |
| Dickson | 40.3% | 24.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 16.5% | 6.0% |
| Eden-Monaro | 26.0% | 42.2% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% |
| Gilmore | 33.5% | 36.2% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 4.7% |
| Hunter | 14.6% | 35.8% | 8.8% | 25.3% | 0.5% | 15.0% |
| Lyons | 27.8% | 33.4% | 13.0% | 4.4% | 9.3% | 12.1% |
| Paterson | 25.9% | 30.9% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 15.9% | 1.6% |
| Wannon | 33.2% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 35.7% | 6.8% |
| AVERAGE | 28.1% | 29.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 6.9% |
| Swing | -10.0% | -2.2% | +0.8% | +4.8% |
Which is obviously none too encouraging for the Coalition, suggesting the loss of Calare and Wannon to independents and Braddon to Labor, and failure in the crucial Labor marginals of Gilmore and Lyons. The results for Labor-held Hunter suggest One Nation are at least competitive (I haven’t troubled to record Trumpet of Patriots’ numbers, but it may be noted that their candidate for the seat, Prime Minister-presumptive Suellen Wrightson, was on all of 0.5%), and Labor’s primary vote in Paterson is low enough to be of concern for them.
• Paul Sakkal of the Nine Newspapers reports that differing viewpoints within the Labor and Coalition camps about the state of play could be “partly explained by the more optimistic polling coming from Dutton’s pollster, Mike Turner of Freshwater Strategy, which contrasts with the data from Labor pollster Campbell White, who also runs Newspoll”. This is reflected in the published polling of their respective outfits: Freshwater Strategy’s poll last week for the Financial Review had a tie on two-party preferred and the Coalition leading Labor 39% to 32% on the primary vote, while Newspoll had Labor leading 52-48 and the Coalition’s primary vote lead at 35% to 34%. So while the Coalition has been talking up its chances in Whitlam and Gorton, on respective Labor margins of 8.4% and 10.0%, Labor is “preparing to start spending on ads in Liberal-held seats such as Deakin and Menzies”.
• Paul Sakkal’s report further relates that Peter Dutton will spend much of the last week of the campaign on “a blitz of teal-held inner-city seats he has shunned to date”, with the Coalition believing “Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong and Mackellar are tough but winnable seats, in that order”. On Friday, Sakkal’s colleague David Crowe related that Dutton had been avoiding such seats “for good reason”: “Liberals admit that he will drag down the vote for a Liberal candidate in a teal seat if he turns up at a polling station”.
• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times cites unspecified “sources” saying former state Nationals leader Mia Davies is running third in the new Perth fringe seat of Bullwinkel, leaving Liberal candidate Matt Moran the favourite, although Labor sources consider their candidate Trish Cook has a “healthy chance”.
• The Poll Bludger’s Charts of the Day (I’ll at least try and make this a regular feature) make an effort to determine if there has been any particular pattern to voting intention by age cohort over the past three years, though I’m not sure how illuminating they are. For three pollsters that have provided such breakdowns with any kind of regularity, these record the difference between each cohort’s voting intention and the overall results, so as to highlight change in relative rather than absolute terms. Only Essential Research’s data was voluminous enough to make trend calculations worthwhile. Unfortunately, anything vaguely interesting for one pollster was uncorroborated or even contradicted by the others. Perhaps I’ll have more luck when I get around to doing gender. I did observe last week that the more interesting story here – namely a cavernous gender gap among young people – would require age-by-gender data, of which very little exists.
The ACM/YouGov polling in Dickson (“with due caution for the small individual sample sizes”, of course) is interesting.
Those numbers put Dutton within 10% of a 2PP majority. A fair share of PHON’s 5.4% and Others’ 6.0% could bridge more than half of that gap … but would he score any significant preference flow from independent Ellie Smith’s 16.5%?
That’s all highly speculative with “error margins of around 5.5%”. But one to watch on Saturday night, anyway.
ON ran in Wannon and Braddon in 22
“… the more optimistic polling coming from Dutton’s pollster, Mike Turner of Freshwater Strategy …”
Indeed. Sharri Markson on Sky News:
“Now tonight I’m going to tell you how the polls you’re reading in the news are wrong when it comes to this federal election and what’s really going on here.”
‘The Sky News host assured viewers the national polls favouring Labor were “inaccurate” and the Liberals’ internal polling of individual seats indicates Dutton is “within touching distance” of forming a government.’
Ha! In 2022 Samantha Maiden retailed the same tale to anyone who would listen … and ended up with egg on her face.
Those who ignore the lessons of history …
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2025/apr/25/sharri-marksons-exclusive-inside-information-puts-coalition-in-poll-position
‘… Peter Dutton will spend much of the last week of the campaign on “a blitz of teal-held inner-city seats he has shunned to date” …’
Tell him he’s dreamin’!
Thanks for the Charts of the Day, William.
Maybe it’s too early in the morning for me … but what do the vertical axes represent?
Is it the deviation of each age cohort from the overall percentages for the population? For example, support for the Coalition in the 55+ cohort is 10 percentage points higher than in the population generally (Essential)?
Sharri Markson might be right and maybe things are closer than we hope.
On the other hand she might be wish casting based on faulty intelligence and trying to keep the 26,000 angry old blokes who regularly watch sky from sinking into a funkhole. After all it seems a bit strange that only one poll is showing Dutton in the game and it also seems ludicrous to dismiss the polling company that the Murdoch Australian uses as a ALP booster. It’s a sad state of affairs that much of Australia’s media has descended into a three ring circus with clowns riding elephants but there you have it. No wonder it’s hard to get your hands on the truth these days. John Lennon would be ropeable.
Peter Dutton would lose the seat of Dickson with a primary vote of 40%
Dutton often gets a PV in the 40s in Dickson. I’m going to put Dickson in the same basket as Texas and Florida.
10 point swing against the Big Reactionaries…suggests they will lose more than 1/4 of their PV. Excellent. That vote is going to Independents and No Notion. Of the 10 seats shown 5 are held by Reactionaries. They are all at risk: 3 to Labor and 2 to Independents. This makes perfect sense. The electoral destruction of the Reactionaries appears to be in train. Excellent.
If the demolition of the Liberal PV suggested by the poll, above, were to be reproduced across the whole electorate the Liberals would lose most of their seats. I’m hopeful this will occur. They are treachery. They are more or less completely estranged from our electorate, having been mesmerised by Trump. They have opposed every single positive measure proposed for this country in the last 42 years. They deserve to be politically destroyed.
That poll result in Calare augers well for Andrew Gee, as does the Wannon result for Alex Dyson. 🙂
Interesting discussion yesterday about China’s continuing use of fossil fuels, advancements in renewable energy, and some allusion to secondary effects.
Well here is one secondary effect in what China is doing with heavy transport, which is worth reading in light of the global fight against emissions. And the rise of swap-out batteries as a preferred technology.
China’s heavy vehicle sector took major strides toward electrification in 2024, underscoring the country’s continued leadership in the global transition toward zero-emission commercial transportation. Heavy road vehicles, including trucks, buses, construction equipment, and special-purpose vehicles, have traditionally lagged passenger cars in the electrification race, mainly due to operational challenges and cost sensitivities.
However, new data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) and industry sources like chinatrucks.org reveal a significant acceleration in new energy vehicle (NEV) adoption across these heavy segments, particularly highlighting battery-electric vehicles as the clear technology frontrunner.
Heavy-duty trucks, the backbone of China’s freight transport and logistics industry, accounted for about 901,700 domestic sales in 2024, reflecting a slight decline of roughly 1% year-on-year. Despite this modest contraction, the new energy share within heavy trucks surged, with around 82,000 NEV units sold, representing nearly 10% of the heavy truck market.
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/22/chinas-electrification-of-trucks-buses-construction-vehicles-accelerates-rapidly/
Looking at the seat of Gilmore
Constance couldn’t win with a primary vote of 42% , at the 2022 federal election
even if you add 5.5% on liberal party primary vote of 33.5% = 39%
Wouldn’t be enough for him to be elected
The PV swing against Dutton is sufficient for him to lose if that swing ultimately accumulates for Labor. There must be a reasonable chance of that occurring. Notably, the PHON vote share has not moved since 2022.
As my grandson would say…wow.
Dutton can join Howard and Bruce as reactionary leaders to be defeated while also losing their own seats at general elections.
Pi’s comment from the previous thread is worth repeating:
Pi,
Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 2:34 am
Comment #709
China is a big complex country. Forgetting the governance for a second, it is more akin to Europe in its diversity. Like Europe, if you walk from one side to some other side, you’ll encounter people speaking five different languages or more. It is not some monotheistic construct. That’s why this simplistic virtue signalling doesn’t apply. China has emitted less carbon per capita than pretty much any cohort in the Western world. That carbon that our forebears put into the atmosphere because of our industrialisation is still in the atmosphere. I posted the graph earlier today. They will never meet our historical emissions per capita, maybe by an order of magnitude.
China isn’t pushing this massive expansion in renewables because of anything that anyone thinks about them. No more than Australia. They’re doing it because it is the cheapest option to achieve energy independence and increase productivity. They manufacture between 90% and 98% of solar and battery production in the world, depending on which subset of the market you’re looking at. We are reliant upon them to decarbonise, not the other way around. The economies of scale improvements of renewables and batteries have been borne by them.
Musk is FUCKED…
NYT..
Terry Ross, a retired lawyer, has lived in Mill Valley for 54 years and said he loves that it has retained its character. He bought his red Model 3 in 2022 for about $64,000, but said that he put his car up for sale after he saw Mr. Musk give that salute. Six days later, a used car company hauled it away.
He received $28,000.
“Bottom line,” Mr. Ross said, “I had to get rid of that thing as soon as I could.”…..
She said she was inspired by Sheryl Crow, the famed singer who sold her Tesla and donated the proceeds to NPR.
The risk with Calare is that there are two independents (Gee and Kate Hook), splitting the anti-Dutton vote.
Apparently polling shows that either would win if it were just one of them vs the Nationals, but with both in the race, there’s going to be enough leakage that the Nats could regain it.
Still, my money would be on Gee at this point.
“I haven’t troubled to record Trumpet of Patriots’ numbers, but it may be noted that their candidate for the seat, Prime Minister-presumptive Suellen Wrightson, was on all of 0.5%”
LOL
Hunter 25% One Nation sounds almost unbelievable but it’s possible they got 22% in 2019 there. One of those traditional working class seats where there is a large cohort of one time loyal Labor voters who are very disillusioned.
Amy Remeikis has an interesting take on the election in The New Daily:
“I haven’t flip-flopped. I said no originally, then I said yes, then I have said no and I’ve stuck to it!”
Pauline Hanson’s 2018 ‘Schrödinger’s denial’ that she ‘flip flopped’ on supporting the Turnbull government’s proposed company tax cuts exists on the outer rim of the collective memory of Australian politics.
Both known and unknown, and so humorously expected it barely rates remembering.
It has, however, also been the guiding principle for how the Coalition has handled this election campaign.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/04/26/coalition-election-fiasco
Regarding the wishcasting by some that the One Nation rise in polls to near 10%, and the latest Clive Palmer vanity, will mean near certain preference flow back to the LNP, a few observations;
1. In 2022, there were 727,464 primary votes for PHON. They won exactly zero seats.
Preferences flowed eventually to the major parties, like this:
LNP – 467,768 – 64.30%
Lab – 259,696 – 35.70%
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseStateTppFlow-27966-NAT.htm
2. The Trumpet of Patriots predecessor, UAP, had a similar flow of
LNP – 61.86%
Lab- 38.14%
3. I know some pollsters have looked at higher PHON flow rates to the LNP in the Queensland state election, and some by elections to weight these flows higher than the 2022 outcome. But by and large, the cohort who voted PHON in 2022 are likely to be the same federally.
4. So why does Labor get a non insignificant preference flow from RWNJ parties? Some thoughts:
– every vote lost from the LNP column to a RWNJ is discounted by 35%
– a PHON voter is disappointed with LNP, likely to not preference them higher
– the same voters may not understand that preference matter, and after putting 1 in the PHON box, will just donkey vote the rest of the candidates – resulting in random final results
– some PHON voters are actually disgruntled Labor voters, who know what their preferences intend
– the RWNJ voters may not be taking the election choice seriously, and certainly not to the extent of taking or understanding HTVs or any adjacent issues of the parties
5. As a comparison, the Greens preference flow in 2022 was
LNP – 14.34%
Lab – 85.66%
Calare will be one of those hard to call seats on election night, due to there being 2 independents in the mix. Andrew Gee would have the advantage of being the sitting member.
As for Wannon, Alex Dyson would need a big enough lead on election night to overcome what will be a fair sized advantage Tehan would have with postal votes.
As for Dickson, my gut tells me Dutton holds on, but the amount of text messages I am getting urging me to donate to Ali Frances’s campaign indicates Labor are having a red hot go this time.
mj says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 6:45 am
Yeah. If Labor were to cave in to Greenmail PHON would likely threaten Labor in dozens of seats. The Greens know that, of course…..which is why they never cease waging their Labor-phobic campaigns. The Greens hope to inflict losses on Labor wherever they can. At least somewhat fortunately, in WA neither the Greens nor PHON represent a threat to the party of strong and safe government.
A large number of ON voters are working class, more socially conservative, economically left Calwell Laborites who obviously do not fit easily with modern Labor but ultimately many will preference Labor over the alternative. They are sort of Labor’s version of inner city Liberals and they are sending a warning shot by voting ON.
Looks like the good folk in the Hunter don’t want a nuclear power station.
Hack, woke, Partisansays:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 6:31 am
They have opposed every single positive measure proposed for this country in the last 42 years. They deserve to be politically destroyed.
_____________________
Jesus Hack.
Just remember, No Liberal Party. No marriage equality.
Labor certainly weren’t going to do it.
Expat @ #18 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 6:45 am
Thanks for that. Anyone know if they’ve preferenced each other?
Flawless @ #25 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 7:20 am
With the recent earthquake fresh in their minds, I’m guessing not.
Taylormade
When Labor in government tried to introduced Marriage equality , the federal lib/nats voted against it
Voters in seats like Hunter would vote in droves for a party like the Sara Wagenknecht Alliance or Workers Party of Great Britain if something like that existed here.
Was considering volunteering to handout for Dyson in Wannon, just checked their ‘reservation system’ for the 84 booths in the electorate, which also offers ‘persuasion training’ sessions once per week.
They have 2 and a half hour shifts, upto 10 people per shift, with some shifts booked out. Every past campaign ive been involved in would triage booths covered, near half day shifts, usually solo.
I feel like a trainspotter, there has been this magnificent rarely seen train approaching, im too mesmerised to move closer for a better look. (did attend one event and make a donation).
Many lay the blame on a poorly performing shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, who may be a technically better economist than his counterpart, Jim Chalmers, but is a far worse political performer.
Angus is a ‘technically better economist’? Really?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/27/peter-duttons-team-have-looted-economic-policies-used-to-fight-past-wars-and-its-not-working-in-2025
The Coalition having to worry about normally reliable seats like Wannon and Forrest and Calare – this doesn’t help them to get more lower house seats than Labor.
The Sun Herald reports Dutton will be barnstorming Teal seats next week – too little, too late?
Albo’s announcement today concerns a new free phone line for Medicare and Telehealth services.
Sportsbet: Coalition on odds of 6.00 in terms of who forms the next government.
‘Pi says:
Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 2:34 am
China is a big complex country. Forgetting the governance for a second, it is more akin to Europe in its diversity. Like Europe, if you walk from one side to some other side, you’ll encounter people speaking five different languages or more. It is not some monotheistic construct. That’s why this simplistic virtue signalling doesn’t apply. China has emitted less carbon per capita than pretty much any cohort in the Western world. That carbon that our forebears put into the atmosphere because of our industrialisation is still in the atmosphere. I posted the graph earlier today. They will never meet our historical emissions per capita, maybe by an order of magnitude.
China isn’t pushing this massive expansion in renewables because of anything that anyone thinks about them. No more than Australia. They’re doing it because it is the cheapest option to achieve energy independence and increase productivity. They manufacture between 90% and 98% of solar and battery production in the world, depending on which subset of the market you’re looking at. We are reliant upon them to decarbonise, not the other way around. The economies of scale improvements of renewables and batteries have been borne by them.’
=====================
It is just as well no-one is doing simplistic virtual signalling.
Which is why I wonder why bludgers who routinely get stuck into the US never, ever do so with china.
These same bludgers are routinely triggered by any criticism of china and routinely come up with deflections, red herrings and what abouts.
Europe just happens mostly to consist of democracies. Some compromised, for sure. But none within a bull’s roar of China’s despotism.
Here are some virtues for the virtue signallers to deflect from.
China is an autocratic police state run by a megalomaniacal mass murderer.
It is the mother of all surveillance states.
Trade unions are fictional entities.
Minority rights are a savage joke.
Han racism is the norm.
Judicial murder is operationalized as a matter of state rule.
The truth is ruthlessly suppressed.
Lies are ruthlessly dispersed.
There are no human rights. None.
There is no democracy.
It used trade bullying as a normal state tool.
Statistics are shamelessly abused.
History is what the CPC wants it to be.
Oh, and did I mention that the state burns more than half the world’s coal which represents a fifth of global CO2 emissions. And, to add to the virtue of all that coal-burning, this same state is ramping UP the construction of coal-fired power generating capacity?
None of the teal seats are going back to Dutton at this point, they’ll lose more. He ticks none of the boxes voters in these seats are looking for in leaders. He’d do better if he avoided them entirely. I don’t think the Liberals will ever win these seats again even with another leader. Where’s FUBAR gone?
Braddon is a surprise. Bookie odds have coalition @ 1.14 and alp 4.90
Bass would be in play as well I assume.
“That’s all highly speculative”
“my gut tells me”
“voters who are very disillusioned”
“the wishcasting by some ”
” They deserve to be politically
destroyed”
“I’m going to put Dickson in the same
basket as Texas and Florida.”
“ended up with egg on her face.”
“Tell him he’s dreamin’!”
Three years of campaigning does this to you unfortunately.
Especially after nine years of one party changing leaders like their underpants and then claiming a need to get the nation “back on track”.
The lasting memory of the Nationals contribution to the election remains Barnaby resting “off the beaten track”
The Greens continue to insist on ” my way or the highway” while the Teals have “discovered a new way over the great dividing range”
Many would have us on “the highway to hell”
The answer of course, as to the question “who’ll win the election” is always the same, “a politician”!
It’s worth remembering that we’d all “blow up” without elections.
But you do wonder!
(with one week to survive)
World News & Politics Patrol:
Trump says he doubts Putin’s willingness to end the war in Ukraine, a day after saying a deal was close: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-doubts-putins-willingness-135648095.html
Russian military helicopter violates Polish airspace: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/04/26/7509286/
20,000 troops surround 1,000 Naxals in major op in Chhattisgarh: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/naxals-india-biggest-anti-naxal-operation-three-states-chhattisgarh-maharashtra-telangana-killed-surrounded-2713840-2025-04-24
India and Pakistan trade gunfire across Kashmir border after deadly attack: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/26/india-and-pakistan-trade-gunfire-across-kashmir-border-after-deadly-attack
Russia says ‘Ukrainian special services agent’ detained in connection with car blast that killed a Russian general: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/26/europe/russia-general-bombing-suspect-detained-intl-latam/index.html
Russia’s military confirms North Korean soldiers fought against Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-military-confirms-north-korean-111406067.html
Missile that killed 12 in Kyiv made with 116 foreign components, majority US-made: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/04/25/7509187/
Trump accused of Pope Francis funeral faux pas after ‘breaking dress code’ then leaving early: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/trump-pope-francis-funeral-blue-suit-b2740006.html
Trump Gets Called Out in Front of Millions at Pope’s Funeral: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-gets-called-out-in-front-of-millions-at-popes-funeral/
Tulsi Gabbard Tries to Blame Signalgate on Biden: https://www.thedailybeast.com/us-director-of-national-intelligence-tulsi-gabbard-shades-biden-admins-use-of-signal-messaging-app/
Hegseth Fires Dozens of Pentagon Advisory Board Members, Cites Need for ‘Fresh Thinking’ to ‘Drive Bold Change’: https://www.latintimes.com/hegseth-fires-pentagon-advisory-board-members-cites-need-fresh-thinking-bold-change-581771
Justice Department revokes Biden-era protections for reporters in leak investigations: https://www.npr.org/2025/04/25/nx-s1-5377624/pam-bondi-reporters-subpoena-leaks
Israeli airstrike kills 10 people, half of them children, as mediators try to restart a ceasefire: https://toronto.citynews.ca/2025/04/26/49-killed-by-israeli-strikes-in-gaza-over-24-hours-as-mediators-scramble-to-restart-ceasefire/
Gordon Brown makes criminal complaint against Rupert Murdoch’s media empire: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2025/apr/26/gordon-brown-criminal-complaint-rupert-murdoch-news-group-newspapers
Pakistan’s Army Attache in UK makes throat slit gesture at Indian community protestors: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/pakistans-army-attache-in-uk-makes-throat-slit-gesture-at-indian-community-protestors/articleshow/120635943.cms
#weatheronPB
The fresh cool air waits,
in the absolute stillness,
of an empty sky.
The Guardian/Patrick Commons
That’s a contender for………..
Perth swinging? first it was this week Tangney looking good for libs,now Bulwinkel looking good for libs-Mia Davies as I said had no hope -and now Pearce is also a big chance for libs.
Other Perth seats lost at last election by libs would be interesting to know if they are back in play.
NT seat gone for labor after tragedy this week and it’s other may be in danger crime is a massive issue in NT.
So what’s that maybe five before Victoria who me thinks are waiting with baseball bats.
Pied Piper
The federal lib/nats going backwards from the 2022 federal election
There is no pathway for Peter Dutton
Which is why I wonder why bludgers who routinely get stuck into the US never, ever do so with china.
These same bludgers are routinely triggered by any criticism of china and routinely come up with deflections, red herrings and what abouts.
Which is exactly what you do, but on the other side of the equation.
I see Labor Majority has moved for the first time in the most likely next government betting on Sportsbet.
2.00 Labor Majority
2.10 Labor Minority
7.00 LNP Minority
26.00 LNP Majority
But maybe Peter Dutton’s whistle stop swing through the Teal electorates will arrest the slide..
pied piper @ #40 Sunday, April 27th, 2025 – 8:03 am
In. Your. Wet. Dreams. 😐
But maybe Peter Dutton’s whistle stop swing through the Teal electorates will arrest the slide..
What exactly is Peter Dutton offering Teal voters besides himself next week? Surely he won’t be proffering some ‘Woke’ policies? Because, if he does, then he’s simply wedging himself with the base.
Boerwar
I think you at least should stick with the facts. Chines peak increase in Coal generation occurred in 2007 with an increase of 88.6 GW., the rate of increase in 2024 was 30.5 GW, the rate has declined.
TO put this in context. The solar install in 2024 was 92GW, there wind install was 42 GW, Hydro 2.9GW., Nuclear 2.3GW.
As I said in previous posts, how you present this data reflects your prejudices, not the data.
Dutton for example wanking on about china’s Nuclear program. The smallest increase in the list.
Data source: https://globalenergymonitor.org/
.
Forgot to mention Curtin in WA also a huge chance for libs as well.Flip flop Teal in big trouble.
So four real winnables at least in Perth.
Get ya ass over here Dutton and spend quality time here.
Morning all. Thanks for the really interesting lead in article and regional seat results William. Whilst appreciating your caveats on small sample sizes they are very encouraging for Labor. You can’t have the Liberal PV collapse this much and not be in trouble somewhere.
I’m not holding out much hopes in Dickson, but if Labor increases its PV and seat numbers in being reelected that would still be a great result compared to historic norms and a strong mandate for its policies.
P1’s post on Chine was factual. In today’s world that alone make it worthwhile.
Morning all.
From the Home of the Brave and the Land of the Free
The hottest new trend in GOP political messaging is parroting the literal regime propaganda of central American tinpot authoritarians, writes Bulwark columnist Andrew Egger. Plus a tongue-in-cheek suggestion that it is Bukele not Vance who is the GOP candidate frontrunner for POTUS in 2028. 😆
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/nayib-bukele-2028-republican-frontrunner-a8c
Trump’s 14 hours in Rome. Of course he tries to make the Pope’s funeral all about him!
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/26/world/europe/trump-pope-francis-funeral.html
Meeting with Zelensky in Rome Trump says Putin may not want to stop the war. Yeah, no shit Sherlock!
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/26/trump-putin-zelenskyy-meeting-00311685
As Trump wrecks the economy the GOP and Wall St execs sit silent. The silence of Wall St is just incredible to me.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/04/26/trump-economy-tariffs-federal-reserve-wall-street/
In an escalation of effort by Trump in his attempts to deport as many immigrants as possible, a Wisconsin judge has been arrested charged with obstruction of justice.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/25/politics/fbi-director-wisconsin-judge-arrested/index.html
There are some however who argue the judge’s arrest is an attempt to deflect away from the increasing commentary about Garcia, and Trump’s economic disaster. The charges against her will go nowhere, so this does appear to be a ‘look over there!’ attempt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsSQESmfJR8
Then again, as Dugan was being arrested AG Bondi stepped up the attack on the judiciary with new threats.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/fbi-arrests-judge-wisconsin-ag-pam-bondi-directs-new-threats-judiciary-rcna203061
And surprise, surprise, the MAGA base just LOVES the arrest of Dugan.
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/26/maga-maximalism-trump-base-wisconsin-judge-arrest
NY Times / Siena Poll finds voters souring on Trump as his disapproval ratings continue to climb. Tellingly only 31% of those polled approve of his handling of Garcia’s wrongful deportation, indicating that Democrats should’ve been carrying on about this issue from the get-go.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/25/us/politics/trump-poll-approval.html
A round up of Trump’s ugly polling numbers.
https://charliesykes.substack.com/p/slouching-toward-100-days?r=2k4r8&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
As expected Trump’s gutting of FEMA is already causing headaches for red state governors like Huckabee-Sanders who now has the difficult choice of going up against Trump to get disaster funding for her state (FEMA has already rejected her twice), or sitting silent and risk being thrown out by angry voters. What comes around, goes around!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/25/sarah-huckabee-sanders-arkansas-fema-trump/
American retailers are growing worried that President Trump’s trade war and increased volatility will lead to empty shelves, higher prices and store closures as Chinese imports screech to a halt.
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/26/trump-tariffs-shortages-prices-china-products
The coming economic nightmare. Trump’s tariffs could cause stagflation for the first time in decades. It may go on for a long, long time.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/06/trump-economy-tariffs-stagflation/682572/
Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he would make peace between Ukraine and Russia in a day. Three months later, he’s behind schedule, and his plan now is to end the fighting quickly by selling out Ukraine and its people to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/04/trump-ukraine-russia-deal/682564/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Remember Rumeya Ozturk the Tufts student who was snatched off the streets in Boston by plain clothed ICE people and hasn’t been heard from since? A group of congressional Democrats visited her in Louisiana and have reported back on her. This is a very sombre read.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/25/opinion/trump-rumeysa-ozturk-ice.html
Three U.S. citizen children from two different families were deported with their mothers by Immigration and Customs Enforcement during the early hours of Friday morning. One of them is a 4-year-old with Stage 4 cancer who was deported without medication or the ability to contact their doctors, the family’s lawyer said. The other children are aged 2 and 7.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/04/26/us-citizen-children-deported-ice/
100 days in, mass deportation is a failure.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/100-days-in-mass-deportation-is-a-failure-fishy-statistics-poll-numbers-incompetent-focus-donald-trump-voters-group
Trump throws cold water on the growing Republican chatter of raising taxes on the ultra-wealthy, handing Democrats a win. Now they just need to use it!
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-tax-cuts-rich-budget-johnson-rcna202908
Trump’s cosplay cabinet: the president’s appointees often appear to be acting out a made-for-television version of their jobs rather than actually doing them.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/04/trumps-cabinet-cosplay/682601/
Trump and DOGE take aim at a program that helps poorer households pay their energy bills, a critical program if you live in cold parts of the country.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/26/trump-liheap-cuts-heating-assistance/