YouGov: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)

A new poll finds Labor drawing ahead of the Coalition on the primary vote and a surge in support for One Nation.

The weekly campaign YouGov poll provides no relief for the Coalition, who are down two on the primary vote to 31%, maintaining a descent from 37% in mid-March. Less than half of this has bane gained by Labor, the latest result having them up half a point to 33%. The Greens are up a point to 14%, while One Nation enjoys a remarkable three-and-a-half point fillip to 10.5% — their best result in any poll since the 2022 election. Labor’s lead is out from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5 on two-party preferred, using a formula that allocates them 80% of preferences from the Greens, 33% from One Nation, 59% from independents and 49% from others. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and steady on disapproval at 49%, while Peter Dutton is down four on approval to 36% and up four on disapproval to 54%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 48-38 to 50-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1500. We should be seeing something in the way of MRP polling from YouGov over the weekend.

UPDATE: In response to a commenter’s query, some further context for the One Nation spike. “Independent” is down from 9% to 5% in this poll because respondents must now choose a specifically listed independent from their electorate rather than “an independent” in abstract. Presumably a lot of the 4% who made this category their proxy for “none of the above” are now with One Nation, who are fielding candidates everywhere except the three Australian Capital Territory seats. Trumpet of Patriots is unchanged at 2%, though they are only contesting two-thirds of the seats and will duly have disappeared as an option for a third of the respondents, and “Other” is up from 3% to 4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

827 thoughts on “YouGov: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 5:24 am
    “… at the last election, there were no Labor politicians on the top ten most distrusted list. This year, there are three: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen, and Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan.”

    That’ll put the C@t among the pigeons.

    OS
    You collect some baggage when you are in power and in-charge of things.
    That is reason it is remarkable and even astonishing that Modi remained the most popular and trustworthy leader continuously for 11 years in India with a population of 1.4 billion people .

  2. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 8:14 am

    As voters tune in to the choices the Reactionary PV is likely to decline to 30% or less and the 2PP split should widen further…hopefully to around 54/46 or 55/45. The groundswell for Labor has occurred as voter attention to the election has increased and as the campaigns have become more prominent.

    Duttonism will have worked to consolidate the Teals in Parliament and to have cemented the Reactionaries in Opposition for years to come.

  3. “Hack, woke, Partisansays:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 8:43 am
    sprocket_ says:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 8:14 am

    As voters tune in to the choices the Reactionary PV is likely to decline to 30% or less and the 2PP split should widen further…hopefully to around 54/46 or 55/45. The groundswell for Labor has occurred as voter attention to the election has increased and as the campaigns have become more prominent.

    Duttonism will have worked to consolidate the Teals in Parliament and to have cemented the Reactionaries in Opposition for years to come.”

    This is looking increasingly plausible and undeniably desirable to anyone remotely progressive let alone anyone who isn’t themselves reactionary

    It is sad that Labor’s ascendancy is causing so much sorry among those who have convinced themselves are progressive!

  4. TPOF

    I have also been to Gallipoli, and the Turkish visitor centre there – where their perspective of the conflict and the participants, is displayed in full multi media. The Turks were fighting another empire – the British – and those poor souls from the British colonies were there for the imperial project.

    It added a lot to visiting those parts of the peninsula where the famous ANZAC stories were conducted.

    There is always multiple sides to each story.

  5. Don’t the right in Australia look at Trump’s rapidly fading popularity, the paucity of talent in his administration, it’s lack of due process, it’s constant lying, it’s totally unconstitutional actions with DOGE, it’s anti-intellectual attacks on Universities, it’s increasing war-mongering and it’s unravelling of progressive programs like DEI and pause to reconsider their political ideology? Because it’s becoming increasingly apparent that the average Australian voter doesn’t want a bar of this insanity.

  6. @Reason4:

    “And yet it is still known by the Labor faithful as the Tampa election. Now indisputable that Labor must race the Coalition to the bottom on asylum seekers because Beasley paused for a nanosecond before falling in line”

    Missed the Rudd era did you?

    We aren’t stuck with offshore processing because of Tampa and Beasley. We’re stuck with it because Labor actually tried undoing it with Kevin Rudd and got absolutely pasted for it with boat arrivals, followed by Scott Morrison parleying “I stopped the boats” into ending up Prime Minister.

    To the Australian public it is now a truism that ending offshore processing will be a disaster that sees boats flooding back to Australia and people dying at sea.

    Good luck convincing the public otherwise. I don’t think anybody is even trying anymore. Maybe in another 10 years?

  7. The Revisionist says:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 8:50 am
    “Hack, woke, Partisansays:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 8:43 am
    sprocket_ says:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 8:14 am

    It is sad that Labor’s ascendancy is causing so much sorry among those who have convinced themselves are progressive!

    Yup. The Greens prosper by running interference for the Reactionaries. They hope to disable Labor. Ultimately this is a self-wedging strategy but it does mean Labor has to do alone what it has always done – defeat the Reactionaries.

  8. pied piper just because you support nazis and their shipping of people off to their death camps and such, that doesn’t necessarily make you a nazi, as I’m sure BTSays can explain in more detail.

  9. Slurs from the lefties above who are the supporters of the slaughter of the innocents aka Hamas supporters.

    Nazis were scum.

    Anyone who is not a leftie is a nazi says the sick left.View above.

    Dutton needs to hammer the Labor/Greens lovein and a vote for labor is a vote for the Greens should be the message need to hear more of it.

    Newspoll needs to improve in two days or libs are cactus.

  10. DPRee: totally agree with the descriptions Bob bestowed on the LNP front bench especially Jane who likes a good stoush and the amazing Michaelia, oh my godfather where they get em!!! Lol. With a talent pool consisting of these two plus Angus ,Paterson, Thunderbird Hastie and Sussan you’ve have to wonder why they are not further behind.

  11. The Turks and the Australian can quietly remember the fallen together.
    Welcome to country is also a solemn affair.
    All is nothing to the thugs.

  12. So the debate on Sunday becomes kind of a big deal, although likely too late, will Dutton throw everything at it to try and win back some votes?

    Will he just make things worse if he does?

    Well over 1/3rd voting for other parties / independents now, we need to find a way for us to be represented on the debate stage

    #25in25

  13. Celebration of war and the heroics individuals exhibit, is a fraught activity.

    I can recall purposefully visiting the Vietnam section of the Australian War Memorial before a trip 8 years ago to Vietnam.

    The displays at AWM did not prepare in any way for what was exhibited at the War Remnants Museum in Saigon https://baotangchungtichchientranh.vn/?language=en

    The Vietnamese were fighting first the French, and then the USA. Most of the large facility is dedicated to those enemies – and the atrocities they committed – with one small section listing out ‘other’ participants, where Australia gets its only mention along with South Korea, Phillipines and some other US allies.

  14. “Anyone who is not a leftie is a nazi says the sick left.View above.”

    Yeah, how dare the left call well known neo-Nazi Jacob Hersant a Nazi.

    You’re the fish that jumped on the hook.

  15. pied pipersays:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 9:01 am

    Slurs from the lefties above who are the supporters of the slaughter of the innocents aka Hamas supporters.

    Nazis were scum.

    Anyone who is not a leftie is a nazi says the sick left.View above.

    Dutton needs to hammer Labor/Greens love in via preferencing and a vote for labor is a vote for the Greens should be the message need to hear more of it.

    I suspect your advice, repeated loudly and indiscriminately hasn’t helped anyone, particularly the randomly navigating Dutton, inventing uncosted policy “on the run” and unintentionally “doing a favour” for an entire nation.
    Dutton and the Liberals are that bad.

  16. I’m going to put it out there. The bludge track suggests to me herding of pollsters due to a lack of variance.

    Also feel this time is opposite to 2019. Post trump, the shy Tories are in no way shy. They are out and proud. So suspect the poll bias is actually recency bias, and likely overstating LNP vote this time around.

    The 220% more distrust number is important. Distrust is visceral and political poison. Especially at this time of global uncertainty due to Trump. The somewhat dodge pre-poll is actually important as I can only see it as overstating LNP due to pre-poll likely bias for factors mentioned yesterday.

    Labor in the 80s, LNP in the 50s, independents up, greens flat, Dutton to no longer have a seat. That’s my read now FWIW

  17. Hard Being Green
    Independents are a divided lot. Until that changes all that matters is who independent voters preference first in the real competition between the two leading candidates. That is still often Labor or Liberal. Look upon the debate as information on how you should allocate your preference, the part of your vote that matters. In most seats voting Green is of no consequence, how you alocate your preferences is.

  18. Arky my point about the so called Tampa election stands

    It is, was and always will be a sad self defeating evidence free fiction

    As for Rudd/Gillard/Rudd that had nothing to do with ridiculous implosion of disunity – it was all Bob Brown’s fault!

    Through all that I remained a rusted on until Shorten proposed throwing a new 1.5 billion subsidy to massively expand gas extraction

    The local idiot still gets my vote (and knows it) just through preferences

  19. Hard Being Green says:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 9:06 am
    So the debate on Sunday becomes kind of a big deal, although likely too late, will Dutton throw everything at it to try and win back some votes?

    Will he just make things worse if he does?

    Well over 1/3rd voting for other parties / independents now, we need to find a way for us to be represented on the debate stage

    #25in25

    ________

    I am glad that other Green voters do not think One Nation/Green, same, same.

  20. pied piper says:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 9:01 am

    ….could be parody….could be….but nah…just plain old bad blood.

    There’s nothing to be gained by trying to disabuse you of your misunderstandings. It’s better that you remain completely out of touch with reality, in a fantasy zone where you can do less harm.

  21. Labor ignore the Greens Israel hatred and with their shared love of Hamas and also human rights trashing communist China it’s no surprise the failing labor federal government have preferenced their besties the Greens second in nearly all seats.

    Libs need a week of smashing this and exposing Greens kooky policies and balance of power .

    Also do this in WA bigtime as the state gov is now beholden to Greens balance of power.

  22. frednk says:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 9:18 am
    Hard Being Green
    Independents are a divided lot. Until that changes all that matters is who independent voters preference first in the real competition between the two leading candidates. That is still often Labor or Liberal. Look upon the debate as information on how you should allocate your preference, the part of your vote that matters. In most seats voting Green is of no consequence, how you alocate your preferences is.

    __________

    Hard Being Green uses inclusive language such as “we” and “us” to refer to “other parties / independents” voters. Rather telling.

  23. So we are about to enter the final week of the “Who do you trust?” election.

    The first preference poll predictions are quite clear. The lesser preferences less so.

    I suspect there will be very few clear cut seat wins on election night. There may be few seats that don’t go down to close-run preference distributions.

  24. Plus PP must be an AI bot. Or a very sad man who lives in a fantasy world on this site 24/7. Even the PP bot seems to not be claiming a LNP win anymore….thats probably the last LNP true believer bot closing the door and turning out the lights

  25. So a young man is being questioned over the booing at Melbourne’s Ceremony today.
    Yet another young man influenced by commentary such as the stuff we read from PP.
    I don’t know whether it was Goebbels or the head of the Jesuits who said something along the lines of ” get them young and you’ve got them for life”.
    Hitler Youth = MAGA youth
    Manipulation of impressionable youth by left or right- wing extremists.
    A human tragedy continuing.


  26. Bellwethersays:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 9:03 am
    PP, you’ve stopped making sense. Time to chill?


    Omar Comin’says:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 9:06 am
    touched a nerve hey pied piper

    suck it up snowflake

    Nervous breakdown?

    I almost had one when I saw ALP PV @25% in Resolve poll

  27. As for the polls, either it’s like 2019 and they’re completely wrong or they’re underestimating the Conservative vote, OR they’re bang on and there’s been a definite move to Albanese and Labor since earlier this year. We’ll find out on May 3 of course!
    Watch where the 2 leaders go in the final week of the campaign, which seats they visit for their media appearances. If Albanese continues to target Coalition held seats, that’ll tell you that Labor’s own internal research indicates somewhere like Deakin or Menzies or Bonner or even Dickson is a chance for the ALP.
    Today’s SMH points out that Dutton so far hasn’t campaigned in any Teal seats at all, the ones the Liberals would need to get back in their column if they had a chance of majority government.
    He is spending all his time in seats on the outer metropolitan fringe of Melbourne – Hawke and McEwen especially.

  28. Just how many Russian agents in Trump administration?

    Hegseth reportedly had unsecured internet connection set up to use Signal in his Pentagon office

    Hegseth had an unsecured internet connection set up in his Pentagon office so that he could bypass government security.

    PP is probably one of them

  29. The voters are still waiting for Dutton and the federal lib /nats to show the full details of the nuclear thought bubble as promised by Peter Dutton

    Reality is that the federal lib/nats were never serious about it as a policy, but seeing if the thought bubble has picked up any support which it hasn’t

  30. Griff @ #137 Friday, April 25th, 2025 – 9:24 am

    frednk says:
    Friday, April 25, 2025 at 9:18 am
    Hard Being Green
    Independents are a divided lot. Until that changes all that matters is who independent voters preference first in the real competition between the two leading candidates. That is still often Labor or Liberal. Look upon the debate as information on how you should allocate your preference, the part of your vote that matters. In most seats voting Green is of no consequence, how you alocate your preferences is.

    __________

    Hard Being Green uses inclusive language such as “we” and “us” to refer to “other parties / independents” voters. Rather telling.

    That’s why this article by Adrian Beaumont is worth taking the time to read:

    https://theconversation.com/preference-deals-can-decide-the-outcome-of-a-seat-in-an-election-but-not-always-255005

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