The weekly campaign YouGov poll provides no relief for the Coalition, who are down two on the primary vote to 31%, maintaining a descent from 37% in mid-March. Less than half of this has bane gained by Labor, the latest result having them up half a point to 33%. The Greens are up a point to 14%, while One Nation enjoys a remarkable three-and-a-half point fillip to 10.5% — their best result in any poll since the 2022 election. Labor’s lead is out from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5 on two-party preferred, using a formula that allocates them 80% of preferences from the Greens, 33% from One Nation, 59% from independents and 49% from others. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and steady on disapproval at 49%, while Peter Dutton is down four on approval to 36% and up four on disapproval to 54%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 48-38 to 50-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1500. We should be seeing something in the way of MRP polling from YouGov over the weekend.
UPDATE: In response to a commenter’s query, some further context for the One Nation spike. “Independent” is down from 9% to 5% in this poll because respondents must now choose a specifically listed independent from their electorate rather than “an independent” in abstract. Presumably a lot of the 4% who made this category their proxy for “none of the above” are now with One Nation, who are fielding candidates everywhere except the three Australian Capital Territory seats. Trumpet of Patriots is unchanged at 2%, though they are only contesting two-thirds of the seats and will duly have disappeared as an option for a third of the respondents, and “Other” is up from 3% to 4%.
So this is either 2019 all over again (and every polster has it wrong!) or we are witnessing the biggest collapse in polling for the Liberal Party since the second world war.
On these numbers, Labor can lose seats in some places (VIC) and win them in others (SA, WA, NSW). If Labor wins a majority, Dutton is gone. If Dutton wins less than 5 seats, he is gone.
This time, something feels different.
In February I was hoping Labor would not go to an election in April – I had the feeling the longer Trump was in the more damage he’d do and the more damaging it would be to Dutton and co.
Then Cyclone Alfred (which would have been called Anthony if not for it being the PM’s name) blew in, and the rest is history. (I hope!!)
don’t fret my children, Dutton is dead meat…
Cactus
Dead.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is 220% more distrusted than Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
At this election, Peter Dutton has moved up to become the most distrusted politician in Australia, ahead of Clive Palmer and even ahead of US President Donald Trump. While not an Australian politician, Donald Trump had enough respondents nominate him as a distrusted political leader to put him on the list.
An interesting insight is that at the last election, there were no Labor politicians on the top ten most distrusted list. This year, there are three: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen, and Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan.
Anthony Albanese, who is also more distrusted than trusted, has a far better standing than Peter Dutton. Viewed through the Net Distrust Score lens, Dutton is 220% more distrusted than Albanese.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9772-roy-morgan-trust-and-distrust-in-politics-federal-election-webinar-press-release
“I don’t think Howard was that far from Hanson on many non economic issues anyway. The only reason he disendorsed her in the 1996 election was because of his sensitivity to criticisms about racism based on his past history. I also think that if he hadn’t disendorsed Hanson she probably would not have won in 1996 and would now be a forgotten footnote in the dustbin of history.”
@bc
Rubbish. The reason Pauline Hanson won in 1996 is because the Liberals couldn’t get her off the ballot. But because the voters had their baseball bats out for Labor they still voted for Hanson who was listed as the Liberal candidate. Hanson ditched Oxley for the seat of Blair in 1998. Where she failed to win but in hindsight should have contested the senate. It was planned for her come back through the senate in 2001, but it all got derailed with one event. Tampa. A event in which droves of voters from One Nation headed back to the Liberals.
It also didn’t assist Hanson under the old voting senate system. The major parties and some of the minor parties could gang up against One Nation and lock One Nation out on preferences. Which also played a role in Hanson failing to get elected to the senate in 2001.
It was planned for her come back through the senate in 2001, but it all got derailed with one event. Tampa.
@ Political Nightwatchman
One event?
As always, I’m amazed people forget the far, far bigger event that swung the 2001 election
A little thing called 9/11
Appears the LNP are very likely to be going backwards at the election and Dutton will not continue as leader even if he manages to hold on to his seat for which his hold is looking increasingly shaky.
Looks like even rusted on conservatives are jumping off the LNP train looking at how high the ON vote is. I thought the combined major party vote would drop as the campaign went on considering the lack of policy vision from either major party and it looks like this is being borne out. Some Lib voters look to be going to Labor and One Nation while some Labor voters look to be going to the Greens. A tanking of the Liberal vote may not necessarily equate to a Labor majority but they should still get close if not reach a majority.
at least 20 unaided mentions?
@fancy dancer
Seems a bizarre metric. What did they do? Sit down and have a session on the beer and see what bile spilled out?
This is an interesting visualisation of the drift away from the major parties over the last 50 years.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-24/election-data-rise-independents-major-party-drift/105144918
“… at the last election, there were no Labor politicians on the top ten most distrusted list. This year, there are three: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen, and Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan.”
That’ll put the C@t among the pigeons. 😉
I also think that what we’re looking at is generational change. The rusted on earlier baby boomers are exiting, stage left, at an accelerating pace.
Gen Jones & Gen X started voting after 1975, largely in the Hawke/Keating years but still have more party affiliation than the younger ones.
The newest voters see no reason for party loyalty & thus we see the drift towards independents (where there is a choice). I can’t blame them, since Howard got into power the deck has been stacked against them & neither party seems prepared to address the inequities introduced during the Howard years.
Angus is surely counting the numbers.
He reckons he has 4732 of the votes in the party room …
The visualisation is interesting shows we reached a tipping point in 2022 where seats started to fall away from the duopoly and looks like more will fall.
No doubt generational change is part of it why would younger people be loyal to parties that are not addressing their key needs and concerns.
RogerRabbit:
“So this is either 2019 all over again … or we are witnessing the biggest collapse in polling for the Liberal Party since the second world war.”
The mirror image of what’s happened for the Liberal Party (actual liberals) in Canada.
Gee, I wonder if there could be some underlying common factor?
Reminder, ALPs best post ww2 result was 52.7% to Kevin07.
This victory will be more special because he is likely to be relected with a higher margin (than his first run), the first re-elected leader since Howard in 04, the first re-elected ALP leader since Hawk in 1990
Political Nightwatchman:
“The reason Pauline Hanson won in 1996 is because the Liberals couldn’t get her off the ballot. But because the voters had their baseball bats out for Labor they still voted for Hanson who was listed as the Liberal candidate.”
A bit from both columns, I strongly suspect.
Some Oxley residents likely believed they were voting for a Liberal candidate.
But others were fully aware of what she’d said to prompt her dumping, and, sadly, liked what they heard.
(My late mother-in-law, who lived around the corner from Australia’s most infamous fish and chips shop, used to tell of her encounter with the big-noting redhead at the local hairdressers: “I’m the Liberal candidate, you know.”)
Oliver Sutton @ #14 Friday, April 25th, 2025 – 5:32 am
Yes, both the Liberals in Canada and Labor in Australia have calm, thoughtful leaders who don’t frighten the electorate and appear to go about the business of policy formation in an effort to address the electorate’s concerns.
And then there’s Donald Trump. 😀
Oliver Sutton @ #12 Friday, April 25th, 2025 – 5:27 am
Great job, Angus! 😀
aeforecasts.com now has Labor/Coalition at 77/56, and 78/55 on their ‘nowcast’ – King O’Malley also has Coalition at 55.
I think the hardest thing for models or pundits to predict is new independents winning seats. From memory in 2022 most of the Teals were not expected to win by pundits or betting markets.
If the Coalition lose a few more to independents and don’t win any back they are heading for the low 50s in seats. And that independent ‘wall’ will become a real obstacle to them forming government next time around also.
1983 on steroids be 2025.
Perhaps those askance small sample exit polling numbers from news limited yesterday weren’t all that suspicious.
83 seats for Labor. In the days since this number came to me the Dutton show really has upped the ante and the intro to the absolutely fabulous tv show sums it up perfectly : wheels on fire, rolling down the road !
Oliver Sutton @ #10 Friday, April 25th, 2025 – 5:24 am
Except this is the money quote, OS:
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is 220% more distrusted than Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
As an article I put up the other day stated, our elections are becoming more presidential every election. 😉
If our elections are becoming more presidential that does not augur well for the major parties this election.
“One event?
As always, I’m amazed people forget the far, far bigger event that swung the 2001 election
A little thing called 9/11”
@Reason4
9/11 would of also played a role. But research suggested Tampa won the One Nation voters back for the Liberals. While 9/11 won the swinging voters back.
“mjsays:
Friday, April 25, 2025 at 4:45 am
Appears the LNP are very likely to be going backwards at the election and Dutton will not continue as leader even if he manages to hold on to his seat for which his hold is looking increasingly shaky.
Looks like even rusted on conservatives are jumping off the LNP train looking at how high the ON vote is. I thought the combined major party vote would drop as the campaign went on considering the lack of policy vision from either major party and it looks like this is being borne out. Some Lib voters look to be going to Labor and One Nation while some Labor voters look to be going to the Greens. A tanking of the Liberal vote may not necessarily equate to a Labor majority but they should still get close if not reach a majority.”
Why does “some Labor voters look to be going to the Greens”?
In terms of the YouGov polling, Labor’s PV is 3.5 points higher than what it got 3 weeks ago and 5.5% higher than what it got at the nadir two months ago. The Greens got 13 in both of those polls too.
The Greens going from 13 to 14 in this poll, to the extent that this was more than rounding and statistical noise, is just as likely to be the people who would prefer to vote Teal but now officially don’t have one to vote for.
Labor’s PV has massively improved.
By my back of the envelope, Labor had an average PV of 29.5 in February polling which has increased to an average 32.8 in April. So a 3.3% increase while Coalition has dropped 4.8, Greens have increased theirs 0.5, PHON are up 1.6 and “other ” are down 0.7.
Labor’s PV increase is about 80% of the 4.2% turnaround in TPP.
You can certainly say that the coalition has been losing votes to the PHON and Labor…..you certainly cannot say that Labor has been losing support to the Greens in net terms.
I would say it is more likely the other way around. The miniscule movement in the Greens can be explained by a share of the massive drop in the LNP PV and the lower “Other” category.
ANZAC day special….
Australia is lucky to have so far avoided the worst of anti-democratic sentiments, such as the increasing polarisation of views and violence seen elsewhere. That fact should be recognised and celebrated. It was, at least in part, what the Diggers fought for. As prime minister at the time Billy Hughes stated, “We fight not for material wealth, not for aggrandisement of Empire, but for the right of every nation, small as well as large, to live its own life in its own way. We fight for those institutions upon which democratic government rests.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-so-many-diggers-voted-no-to-conscription-in-wwi-20250424-p5ltvw.html
AAP doing some nice work with the YouGov poll…
And the gender breakdown in YouGov…
“mjsays:
Friday, April 25, 2025 at 6:11 am
If our elections are becoming more presidential that does not augur well for the major parties this election.”
The Polling has Labor at a higher 2PP than it has got at any election since 1946.
It is currently augering very well for Labor
It is augering badly for the coalition
Nathaniel Smith introduced at the Bowral Dawn service as hopeful
“Defence respectfully requests those standing for political office to refrain from using imagery of themselves in uniform or imagery of ADF personnel as part of any campaign material,” a defence spokesperson said.
The shadow minister for defence, Andrew Hastie. The former troop commander in the SAS was sacked from the army reserve in 2016 after he continued to include images of himself in uniform on campaign material
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/24/military-uniforms-election-campaign-materials-ntwnfb
The last refuge of scoundrels……
YouGov primaries
Coalition primary at 31%. I doubt it’ll be that low at election but still. Must be giving coalition MPs in marginal seats the shivers.
Welcome to country booed loudly this morning in Melbourne at Anzac ceremony.
Aussies fed up being welcomed to their own country.Labor love it!
The Yougov poll has Albanese more popular in rural than Dutton.If you believe that I have a condo on the beach to sell you…
Post below pollsters stuffed up for years on Trump popularity – underestimated.
Some Fox News polling…
Trump’s reaction…
😆
pied pipersays:
Friday, April 25, 2025 at 6:37 am
Welcome to country booed loudly this morning in Melbourne at Anzac ceremony.
____________________________________
Followed by much louder applause.
Ditch your ignorance and stupidity.
Bug 1
Post War Labor had higher 2pp votes than the 52.7% scored in 2007 in both 1946 and 1983. In 1972 , the 2pp was 52.7% as well.
And meanwhile in the UK
From Stats for Lefties @LeftieStats
“Does this outcome look absurd? Yes! But that is what happens when a party goes from leading Reform by a 20pt margin (in GE2024) to **trailing them** by 8pts. (And presumably FPTP)”
NEW | Poll suggests a Labour wipeout
Voting intention 23 April 2025 and Changes from 16th April
REFORM: 28% (-)
CONSERVATIVE : 20% (-)
LABOUR: 20% (-2)
LIBERAL DEMOCRAT: 14% (-)
GREEN: 13% (+3)
[Find Out Now, 23rd April, N=2,139]
Seat Projections:
Reform.: 374. (+ 369)
Liberal Democrats: 81 (+ 72)
Conservative: 58 (- 63)
Scottish National: 44 ( + 35)
Labour: 41 ( – 370)
Green: 16 ( + 12)
Plaid 4 ( – )
https://x.com/LeftieStats
#weatheronPB
Wet, grey-sky doldrums,
the new rain gauge filled last night,
and it’s dripping still.
“Reminder, ALPs best post ww2 result was 52.7% to Kevin07.”
@bug1
Nope Bob Hawke was higher at 53.23% at the 1983 election. I think partly because John Howard ran the mother of all scare campaigns to bring the vote back particularly the rusted on’s in 2007. Despite Labor running a great campaign.
Malcolm Fraser snap election in 1983 was stupid. It concided with Bob Hawke taking over the leadership so Hawke’s honeymoon period was effectively the federal election campaign. It couldn’t have worked out worst for the Liberals.
Another Nutjob yelled “ free Palestine” during the Sydney ceremony.
No surprise the left hate their own country.
I was only wondering what had happened to the other person wrongly deported to El Salvador, the Venezuelan make-up artist. The NY Post has a story about how he’s an ‘gangbanger’ who was given TPS under the Biden administration. The story has used these photo of him. I don’t know any violent Venezuelan gang members, but this is not how I’d envisage one allowing themselves to be photographed.
https://x.com/JennieSTaer/status/1915401592091660552
Mundo. I don’t know if you’re around. But, in answer to your question last night, I bought a DVD of Newsfront at the wonderful Title: a Sydney book/CD/DVD shop with branches in Surry Hills and Barangaroo.
However, Newsfront is also one of a rapidly-growing group of classic flicks that is readily available to watch for free on the internet (eg, on Internet Archive). Try typing “Newsfront Free” into Google.
Good morning, all.
Beautiful ANZAC morning.
A reminder of how history is distorted.
The Gallipoli campaign cost half a million casualties. It was a significant Turkish victory and a major Allied defeat.
Allied casualties were around 140,000
Australian casualties were around 22,000
French casualties (did you even know they were there at all?) were nearly double those of the Australian casualties.
Fess at 7.07am
It’s those hitmen who love giant cuddly toys that are the most dangerous. Everyone knows that. 🙂
PP
A free Palestine has been the official bipartisan policy for many decades.
Booing the welcome to country at Melbourne this morning was pre-organised by the same neo-Nazi networks who targeted Australia Day ceremonies (Sewell, Cottrell etc). They’ve got a whole program.
BW at 7.11am
Gallipoli was the first military campaign by what was effectively the Australian Army. The men fought bravely and heroically in what was an ill-judged campaign, and a substantial number of them died.
Thus they are especially dear to us and we will always commemorate them. The Turkish people fully appreciate this, so why can’t you, you old curmudgeon.
Welcome to country is a moment full of reflection. Designed to remember and respect history, ancestry and recognise place and coming together in that place in peace. Looking back, looking forward. There is a beautiful stillness in it. Perfect for the occasion.
I can’t imagine what resides in the heart of someone booing it, on a hallowed sombre day. Perhaps they equate patriotism with being a f’wit. In that, they might be right.
meher baba @ #46 Friday, April 25th, 2025 – 7:11 am
He’s lethal with a make-up brush!