A record 542,143 voters cast their ballots on the first day of early voting on Tuesday, compared with 314,496 on the first day in 2022. Four thousand of those who voted yesterday and on Tuesday across 19 seats were surveyed as part of an “exit poll” conducted by the News Corp papers, an exercise I am a little dubious about, particularly when reported at seat level from samples of barely more than 200 each. The degree of care needed to produce properly illuminating results does not seem to have been taken: the swing figures reported at seat level do not take account of redistributions, and at national level the results are aggregated and compared to the party totals from 2022, without regard to the peculiarities of the targeted electorates.
Let’s be optimistic though and say that broadly representative voting centres were chosen, and that to the extent that they were not, the problem cancels out when results are aggregated across multiple electorates (and also that the earliest early voters are representative of the whole, which is impossible to say) (UPDATE: Adrian Beaumont points out that US experience says voters earlier in the period tend to be older, which may explain some of the weak results for the Greens). In the following analysis, I have gone to the effort of basing swing calculations off redistribution-adjusted results from 2022 at pre-poll voting centres only:
• The three Greens-held Brisbane seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith were all targeted, with average results of Greens 33.7%, up 2.4%; Labor 31.8%, up 5.2%; and LNP 32.8%, down 2.9%.
• Average results in the New South Wales seats of Werriwa, Gilmore, Paterson and Bennelong were Labor 43.1%, up 4.3%; Liberal 37.2%, down 2.5%; and Greens 4.8%, down 2.8%. I have excluded the part of North Sydney that was transferred to Bennelong from my baseline calculation here, due to the complication there of teal independent Kylea Tink.
• Average results in the Victorian seats of Corangamite, Chisholm, Bruce and McEwen were Labor 42.1%, up 3.4%; Coalition 40.1%, up 4.6%; and Greens 8.6%, down 3.5%.
• Boothby and Sturt averaged Labor 44.5%, up 13.3%; Liberal 44.3%, down 0.3%; and Greens 9.0%, down 4.5%.
• In the two seats with competitive teals, Goldstein and Bradfield, there was an average Liberal vote of 43.5%, up 0.6%, and an average teal vote of 32.5%, up 2.3%. In this case I did not include areas added to Goldstein in the redistribution for the baseline, as they did not have a teal candidate in 2022.
Other seats covered by the exercise were Leichhardt, McPherson, Lyons and Solomon.
There is another item of polling in the shape of a second Ipsos poll for the Daily Mail, which provides leadership ratings but not voting intention. Anthony Albanese is up three on approval since last week to 38% and steady on disapproval at 39%. The report says only that Peter Dutton has a net rating of minus 20, unchanged on last week when he recorded 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Albanese leads 46-32 as preferred prime minister, out from 44-30. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 2000.
I’ve heard it said that a large part of the PHON base is from divorcee’s and failed business owners who attempted the LNP’s “You have a go, you get a go” mantra and went bankrupt and bitter.
Ven says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:09 pm
…..
nadia
Do you know why PHON vote is increasing and L-NP vote is decreasing?
RWNJs think Hanson is genuine and Dutton is not.
RWNJs think that he betrayed them by backflipping on many LNP policies and in their opinion became ALP lite.
===============
Not too sure Ven.
Dutton literally swallowed up the UAP vote this parliamentary term, but left PHON alone.
Dutton made a play for the “fringe Pauline” vote in early December over the flags nonsense.
Somehow Pauline has turned the tables on him, and she appears to be now pulling primary votes off the Libs.
Where – I don’t know. Looks like it’s in S.A. and W.A. Possibly Tassie.
The PHON vote in Vic (per BT) is anaemic. Must be in W.A. and S.A. as they are the only states recording big increases to PHON per BT.
To be honest, I’m not too sure what to make of the current polling except that it is clear the ALP is taking votes off the Greens (and possibly Indies) and the LNP are losing votes to PHON.
Maybe some ALP voters in Teal seats are thinking the “Teals” are not much chop, and they’d prefer to vote for the real deal – ie: a Labor member.
Socrates @ #646 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 10:22 pm
Thanks for that, Soc. The rest of her support comes from the other groups. 😉
nadia88 at 9.15, 9.38 and 10.03 pm, Arky at 9.48 pm, Ven at 10.09 pm and Bludgeoned Westie at 10.10 pm
Before you bother aggregating 10% for Hanson consider if it is real, i.e. if the 3.5% rise from the previous YouGov poll is credible. Hint: it isn’t.
As Arky said, the Hanson figure is most probably inflated.
Remember what Bob Hogg said after the 1990 election. If you get a 4% shift in a week there is an outlier. Even more so for a minor like Hanson.
It is possible that this YouGov poll has more of a skew to older voters, despite the drop in the Lib vote. Also, the conservative group could be more skewed toward Hanson and away from Libs, compared to the last poll.
Hogg was speaking a few weeks after the 1990 election, criticising the media for their incredulity on polls.
@bizzcan that’s a great point. Many of my fellow progressives are fully paid up teal supporters now but they are unaware that many of the teals hold views on key issues such as industrial relations, live sheep trade, which are totally opposed to their own. But the teal “vibe” is progressive and anti-establishment so they overlook particular issues.
No wonder Dutton’s favourite network tonight are obsessed with Ali Frances’s social media posts from 2017.
Maybe they’re doing that to try and save Dutton himself? 😉
Dutto not cooker enough for over 10% of Australians is a scary thing to contemplate
@Dr Doolittlesays: Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:28 pm
Whether PHON getting 10.5% of the vote is real or not, the fact that it’s exceeding 10% is alarming and needs to be looked at.
MI at 10.14
It’s legal because its a political party. There was no way the laws around blocking contact was ever going to apply to political parties. They get your number because they buy contact lists, or have access to the electoral role.
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I don’t mind getting them from other parties because then I can see what they’re up to.
The one from crumpet was so simplistic I could see those who never follow politics would vote for that shit.
With their vote hovering around the 1% mark that just about sums up their base.
I have to restrain myself from using derogatory words to describe their mentality.
Yougov poll not believable me thinks.Has fleas.
Newspoll one nation vote went down last poll.
Main story now West Australian teal Chaney getting bucks from WA Green Coordinator.
Good week so far for libs.Broke even last week.
Reason4 says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:14 pm
If it’s banking up in Tassie, then I think we’re going to see Pauline’s daughter elected there, probably replacing Jacqui.
Zero chance
PHON have never done anything in Tassie
Last time less than 4% and Lambie got up a nobody
====================
Depends where the PHON vote is “hiding away”.
BT gives a clue – it looks like it’s hiding away in W.A. & S.A.
WB will put this latest YouGov poll through the rack and hopefully extract where exactly this PHON vote of 10.5% is parked.
I’m actually shocked she’s topped 10% on an official poll.
Looks like the “U.K. Reform” crowd has arrived in Oz, today being the day it happenned. Anzac Eve 2025.
Reform is eating into the U.K. conservativates like termites, and it looks like today, this trend is now occuring in Oz.
A 10% primary is a significant primary, & from a reputable pollster.
pp is their any piece of news that would dampen your swivel eyed optomism?
Bizzcan
A broadly sensible take.
My issue with the independents/teals discussion is that, while it is broadly accepted that a “party” policy platform gets picked apart (“lack of detail” is the usual reaction), people get incredulous when the same focus is put on independents/teals policies.
As example, I don’t support the teals specifically because much of the platform across the candidates are either anti-union, or for workplace deregulation that makes IR conditions worse for workers. For example, i don’t agree with their campaign to redefine a “small business” – it would expose too many additional workers to unfair dismissal and wage theft
—————–
Ryan is seen as the most left wing teal but voted against bills someone really left wing wouldn’t vote against.
I know hubris is dangerous but I am wondering if this poll for Labor including the 2PP is actually correct. It would explain some of Dutton’s recent behaviour.
The Liberals may have internal polling that is similar. If they know they are not going to win they might be going conservative to “save the furniture”. Hence Dutton’s backflips on stuff like EV subsidies. They are giving up on the Teal seats and holding onto the outer suburbs and regions.
Kirsdarke at 10.26 pm
The Hanson base is particularly racist. Always has been. They also are mostly the euphemistically called “low info voters”, who have difficulty thinking other than in a dogmatic mode.
People should stop looking at the minutiae and ask the big question:
Hanson has been around for longer than Marine Le Pen and has much less influence- why?
Note that the corrupt Le Pen’s group controls some local governments in France.
The answer is that, ever since Howard in the late 1990s, the Libs have taken on the xenophobic rhetoric of Le Pen.
Hanson is nothing like Le Pen in terms of organisation and illusion, i.e. professional window-dressing.
There is also the fragmentation of the RW nutter vote, characteristic of Australia but not Europe.
E.g. in Leichhardt there are 5 RW nutters standing. This is a minor factor in Matt Smith’s favour, the major one being Entsch retiring.
It’s only a loss of a net four seats and labors in the hell zone.
Minority gov.
It’s the same duds from labor I expect a swing back next week to libs.
Palmer has thrown that much money he is scooping up votes as well.
Yes, I’m giving my number 1 vote to Trumpet of Patriots. They deserve the top of the ticket given their humdinger ads and policies.
Pauline’s One Nation gets 2 and to make sure the preference flow stays well away from the Green lunatics and the Socialist Red, the Liberals will get 3.
pied pipersays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:38 pm
Good week so far for libs.Broke even last week.
___________________
I rarely laugh out loud from a PB post – thank you from that.
Here, have a clip from the LNP campaign this week:
https://youtu.be/aKnX5wci404?feature=shared
Laughed off earlier polls having phon on 6% but Dutton’s campaign has been that bad it’s possible Dutton will lose votes to the right since Morrison lost many on the left.
The Albonator @ #657 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 10:31 pm
The penetration of their media has been insidious but effective. You can get it all on YouTube and elsewhere…Steve Bannon’s War Room, The Daily Caller, Breitbart, Newsmax, Joe Rogan, Theo Von, Dave Ruben, Andrew Tate, Benny Johnson. Plus heaps of others!
Busy at the Dunkley pre poll today at the Frankston footy oval. If the visibility of billboards around the constituency were a measure of likely success then the LNP’s Nathan Conroy would win by a country mile. Cant see it happening.
Of the dozen or so elections I’ve voted in, this feels like the one I’m least engaged in. The ALP got my first preferences as usual but for the first time I ignored the ALP how to vote card and placed the Greens last on both the House and Senate. They’ve lost me on prioritising Palestine, trans rights and other luxury beliefs over the environment.
Bludgeoned Westie at 10.35 pm and nadia88 at 10.40 pm
When you get a similar Hanson figure in Newspoll then treat it as nothing like an outlier. Meanwhile it’s just that.
Dr Doolittle says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:46 pm
Kirsdarke at 10.26 pm
The Hanson base is particularly racist. Always has been. They also are mostly the euphemistically called “low info voters”, who have difficulty thinking other than in a dogmatic mode.
People should stop looking at the minutiae and ask the big question:
Hanson has been around for longer than Marine Le Pen and has much less influence- why?
Note that the corrupt Le Pen’s group controls some local governments in France.
The answer is that, ever since Howard in the late 1990s, the Libs have taken on the xenophobic rhetoric of Le Pen.……..
***********
That raises the interesting possibility that the LNP preferencing to One Nation has sent a signal to a slab of their voters that voting for One Nation is now OK.
The Albonator says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:41 pm
pp is their any piece of news that would dampen your swivel eyed optomism?
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I doubt it Albonator, where do you think he got his name and ideas from.
Hint :-Crispian St Peters 1966.
Hey, come on, babe
Follow me, I’m the Pied Piper
Follow me, I’m the Pied Piper
And I’ll show you where it’s at
Come on, babe
Can’t you see, I’m the Pied Piper
Trust in me, I’m the Pied Piper
And I’ll show you where it’s at
Hey, babe
What are you tryin’ to prove?
It ain’t true
That your life has kicked you, it’s your mind
And that’s all that’s trickin’ you
So step in line.
Suellen Wrightson is the official leader of the Trumpet party. And how sexy did she sound reeling off those good policies in the ad at half-time in the footy…
Same first name as JR’s wife in Dallas – beautiful.
Made the Broncos back on track even more enjoyable.
Great to hear from you again, Rossmore!
Bizzcansays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:46 pm
pied pipersays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:38 pm
Good week so far for libs.Broke even last week.
___________________
I rarely laugh out loud from a PB post – thank you from that.
Here, have a clip from the LNP campaign this week:
https://youtu.be/aKnX5wci404?feature=shared
===============================================
Only had to backflip on one policy and still has a couple of policies left. It was an exceptionally good week for Dutton, who might still have a policy left when he gets to the election date.
C@T: “The penetration of their media has been insidious but effective. You can get it all on YouTube and elsewhere…Steve Bannon’s War Room, The Daily Caller, Breitbart, Newsmax, Joe Rogan, Theo Von, Dave Ruben, Andrew Tate, Benny Johnson. Plus heaps of others!”
Watched an excellent mini series drama on Netflix called “Adolescence” the other week which dealt with much of this internet corruption of mostly young males minds. Very much worth a look. Watched it with my 12yo daughter and discussed it and issues surrounding the internet, cyber-bullying and such like. Well worth watching
A good friend of mine works with a major union in SEQ and gave me some interesting information today.
Labor have thrown a hell of a lot of money, and I mean a hell of a lot at Dickson. They have pumped over $250 K in Dickson in the last week. Her words were ‘the party isnt spending that type of money in the last two weeks of a campaign if they didnt think they were a big chance.’
She also said that Leichhardt was very, very close and Labor think they can get it, as Matt Smith has built up a lot of momentum and the LNP candidate hasnt helped himself. The Libs are on a 3.4% margin, so for them to lose it would mean a big swing in the context of this election. If the Libs do lose a seat like Leichhardt then they will be in a world of pain elsewhere.
Apparently there is some rather damaging information that is about to be dropped about the LNP candidate, if its true then I would imagine he is toast.
‘If’ being the important word there, as always.
Centre says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:56 pm
Suellen Wrightson is the official leader of the Trumpet party. And how sexy did she sound reeling off those good policies in the ad at half-time in the footy…
Same first name as JR’s wife in Dallas – beautiful.
Made the Broncos back on track even more enjoyable.
…………………………………………………………………………………………
You forgot to mention that she IS the next Prime Minister of Australia.
How disrespectful of you.
A short video – Bernie Sanders 20 years ago – why do people vote Republican even though hardly anyone like their actual policies:
https://youtube.com/shorts/t6OLyRdydZU?si=XyT_7MGwrNyLpACA
Replace “Republican” with “Liberal” and much of it applies here.
Dr Doolittle
The answer is that, ever since Howard in the late 1990s, the Libs have taken on the xenophobic rhetoric of Le Pen.……..
Well no, give her that much ‘credit’, he got it directly from Hansen #1
98.6
Who would you rather have as PM? Suellen or Bandt.
At least the ASX wouldn’t fall 5,000 points on the first Monday morning of trade if Clive Palmer was calling the shots instead of Bandt – Lord help us!
. Karabotsos says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 11:01 pm
A good friend of mine works with a major union in SEQ and gave me some interesting information today.
Labor have thrown a hell of a lot of money, and I mean a hell of a lot at Dickson. They have pumped over $250 K in Dickson in the last week. Her words were ‘the party isnt spending that type of money in the last two weeks of a campaign if they didnt think they were a big chance.’
,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,..,
I’m proud to say I gave a small donation to make up that $250k.
Dr Doolittle @ #662 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 10:46 pm
Well, to be fair, Marine Le Pen does have the years of her father’s work behind her. All Pauline Hanson has is being a fish and chip shop owner from Ipswich that went in way over her head, especially when Tony Abbott went out of his way to put her in prison.
But I’m not underestimating her, I’m sure her new best friend Gina Rinehart is hoping to use her for something in this election.
Albonator,
‘Adolescence’ has been highly recommended to me by a couple of very reputable sources. One said that when the kid is interviewed, he (the source) found himself leaning back in his chair and hanging onto the chair arms.
I haven’t seen it yet, but it’s on my list.
Centre has gone full delulu. Sad.
If you google old mate Suellen you can see how she looked back in 2013 when she first lobbed for what I assume is her boss (Clive loves forcing his workers into being candidates for him), a young 20 something with a chip on her shoulder. Fast forward a a decade and she looks like a 50 year old grandma.
Shows what living with cooker hatred does to you.
Thankfully Pauline dropped off the radar for a while which hurt her badly. I will never forgive the mainstream media and their right-wing owners who resurrected her career in 2015 and doing it by paying her millions of dollars so she could plow it back into election campaigning, bringing back one nation from the dead.
Cheers C@t, hope your in a good space. As I said, finding it difficult to get excited about this election. Perhaps that’s a good thing. Politics isn’t everything in life. On a happier note, planted out some dill and coriander seedlings today which, despite the best efforts of our politicians, will consume my interest far more over the coming months.
I’d like to see that One Nation figure be replicated by a few other polls before I start believing it’s that high (if we even have enough time) but, if it is, it would probably translate to at least a 4 seat gain in the Senate for them. One from each mainland state (bar QLD which already has a ON Senate seat up for re-election.) I don’t know about Tasmania, as Jacqui Lambie mixes things up there. Good news is, in each of these cases, it’d probably be at the expense of a third Coalition seat, rather than a Labor/Greens seat.
What a great day for LB. Two projects I’ve worked on at ground level are finally coming to fruition.
Gilmore all but a shoe in for Labor.
The mighty North Sydney Bears- a foundation 1908 club that will finally have the respect it is deserved restored with the confirmation of the Western Bears. I’ve worked for over 2 years on this one as a back and forth intermediary in various capacities with other members of my family.
And to think News limited delivered me both these vessels of news on the very same day. I struggled with the 12 hour embargo but I made it through.
Our data suggested 50.9- 51.5ish at best in Gilmore. They are saying it’s actually an 8 point swing.
I know William explicitly mentioned the small ~200 seat sample sizes as too minuscule to be credible however it would be negligent to dismiss consistent, weekly small sample quantitative surveys. Despite the modest number if conducted very frequently one can establish a baseline of which can be used to measure and scale the weekly movements.
Reason4 at 11.03 pm
Yes, but the point is that Le Pen’s father was spouting xenophobia when P. Hanson was still in the Old Country.
Ms Le Pen runs a slick operation. Hanson does not. She’s a mouth with a front and nothing much upstairs.
Hanson would have foundered except for the help she got along the way from ex-Lib staffers. Her biggest push came from Turnbull’s 2016 DD.
How can anyone not be excited about this election?
It’s a watershed election, the most important in a generation, according to the people who said the same thing about the last election, and the one before that, and the one before that, and …
Question re the flow of preferences: if Alp gets 40% first preferences, Libs get 40%, and One Nation gets 10%, and if the preference flow statistically is 80/20 to Libs from ONP, and say 50% of ONP voters follow the HTV cards, doesn’t that mean that the Libs get 10 x .8 x .5 of the TPP vote from ONP? That is an extra 4% TPP vote?
98.6, I did too. I might be on the other side of the country but no one I’d like to see win more than Ali France.
C@t, I was responding to 98.6.
However, hypothetically speaking, believe it or not, I’m sure many would prefer a Clive Palmer PM than Adam Bandt.
Ante Meridian well yes 🙂
Ante Meridian @ #693 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 10:44 pm
Oh man, Leno’s gonna kill when he opens with that one tonight!
How about this as a Labor ad-
Are you one of the 185,343 Australian Public Service workers?
Under Dutton you have a 1 in 5 chance of being sacked.
Who will you vote for?
Who will your spouse vote for?
Who will your Mum and Dad vote for ?
Who will your family members vote for?
VOTE LIKE YOUR JOB DEPENDED ON IT !
Looking back to last time Zoe Daniel and Mon Ryan did well in the prepoll but Ryan lost the Hawthorn prepoll before easily winning election day booth.