A record 542,143 voters cast their ballots on the first day of early voting on Tuesday, compared with 314,496 on the first day in 2022. Four thousand of those who voted yesterday and on Tuesday across 19 seats were surveyed as part of an “exit poll” conducted by the News Corp papers, an exercise I am a little dubious about, particularly when reported at seat level from samples of barely more than 200 each. The degree of care needed to produce properly illuminating results does not seem to have been taken: the swing figures reported at seat level do not take account of redistributions, and at national level the results are aggregated and compared to the party totals from 2022, without regard to the peculiarities of the targeted electorates.
Let’s be optimistic though and say that broadly representative voting centres were chosen, and that to the extent that they were not, the problem cancels out when results are aggregated across multiple electorates (and also that the earliest early voters are representative of the whole, which is impossible to say) (UPDATE: Adrian Beaumont points out that US experience says voters earlier in the period tend to be older, which may explain some of the weak results for the Greens). In the following analysis, I have gone to the effort of basing swing calculations off redistribution-adjusted results from 2022 at pre-poll voting centres only:
• The three Greens-held Brisbane seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith were all targeted, with average results of Greens 33.7%, up 2.4%; Labor 31.8%, up 5.2%; and LNP 32.8%, down 2.9%.
• Average results in the New South Wales seats of Werriwa, Gilmore, Paterson and Bennelong were Labor 43.1%, up 4.3%; Liberal 37.2%, down 2.5%; and Greens 4.8%, down 2.8%. I have excluded the part of North Sydney that was transferred to Bennelong from my baseline calculation here, due to the complication there of teal independent Kylea Tink.
• Average results in the Victorian seats of Corangamite, Chisholm, Bruce and McEwen were Labor 42.1%, up 3.4%; Coalition 40.1%, up 4.6%; and Greens 8.6%, down 3.5%.
• Boothby and Sturt averaged Labor 44.5%, up 13.3%; Liberal 44.3%, down 0.3%; and Greens 9.0%, down 4.5%.
• In the two seats with competitive teals, Goldstein and Bradfield, there was an average Liberal vote of 43.5%, up 0.6%, and an average teal vote of 32.5%, up 2.3%. In this case I did not include areas added to Goldstein in the redistribution for the baseline, as they did not have a teal candidate in 2022.
Other seats covered by the exercise were Leichhardt, McPherson, Lyons and Solomon.
There is another item of polling in the shape of a second Ipsos poll for the Daily Mail, which provides leadership ratings but not voting intention. Anthony Albanese is up three on approval since last week to 38% and steady on disapproval at 39%. The report says only that Peter Dutton has a net rating of minus 20, unchanged on last week when he recorded 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Albanese leads 46-32 as preferred prime minister, out from 44-30. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 2000.
adam bankssays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:15 pm
Some of the minor party and independent candidates are smart, talented and successful people. So good to have some of them in parliament.
However I think one should still be realistic about some things.
_________________
A broadly sensible take.
My issue with the independents/teals discussion is that, while it is broadly accepted that a “party” policy platform gets picked apart (“lack of detail” is the usual reaction), people get incredulous when the same focus is put on independents/teals policies.
As example, I don’t support the teals specifically because much of the platform across the candidates are either anti-union, or for workplace deregulation that makes IR conditions worse for workers. For example, i don’t agree with their campaign to redefine a “small business” – it would expose too many additional workers to unfair dismissal and wage theft.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-05/teal-mps-push-for-changes-to-small-business-definition/104686700
I keep highlighting this sort of example because its a policy platform that gets little to no media coverage (MSM, or the partisan second tier commentary).
YouGov poll very interesting.
The figure for the Indies was always going to go down once voters got the readout of whom was actually in their seat. I suspect the One Nation and Greens votes are higher than they will end up being. But you know, it makes sense that the right wing Trumpers that the Coalition have fostered are now preferring the openly Trumpy party rather than Trump Lite.
Might be due some media scrutiny on One Nation at this point though.
In 2022 65% of PHON preferences went to the LNP.
I agree with Luigi Smith. Dutton has beaten Dutton.
Constable Backflip has made enough mistakes to lose two elections. Policies have been vague, inconsistent or non-existent with still no explanation of how they will be paid for one week out from election day. Dutton could have disowned his Trumpish policies but has doubled down on them.
The latest YouGov more or less validates this morning’s News Corpse exit poll of pre-poll voters. The assorted Libs on a combined 31% – FARK!!! The ALP will score well north of 80 seats on those figures. As Boerwar notes, at least it’s nice to dream of 80+. Albo’s no Gough, but he might end up being as unlikely a hero for Labor as Howard was for the Libs. It’s the Napoleon effect of determined, short, quiet ones who prosper.
Dr Doolittle says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:27 pm
I left the 😉 off
Hard Being Green @ #598 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 9:44 pm
I think the rough estimate is that they’ll go around 75-25 to the LNP.
In the Queensland state election the preferences went about that way, 73.6-26.4.
nadia88says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:38 pm
Hard Being Green,
I’m always on the hunt for a poll! No doubts about that from me.
Not too sure what to make of this.
When Dutton did his flag stunt in early December, I thought he was trying to eat into the Pauline vote, after having swallowed up the U.A.P. vote this term.
Looks like Pauline has somehow turned the tables on him in 2025. Not too sure how this has happenned as I haven’t really heard much from her this year. She’s not that active in QLD, so perhaps she’s been elsewhere. Anyway, I think this is the first poll to have her above 10%.
WB – I gather you will bang out a new thread overnight. Could you possibly offer a political comment regarding the Hanson vote and her voting cohort. Do they think Dutton is “too woke”, and as such wish to park their vote to the right of Dutton? Will this return to Labor 35-65%, or much lower?
Interested in your honest opinion, if you can drop a line please. If not, maybe Meher, Arange, Bludg Westie or Fubar?
Sorry, just after brutal pseph analysis, not partisan BS please.
===================================================
Then your asking the wrong people. Only Scott has been getting pseph analysis right. The rest of us have just been spinning BS.
Phon on 10.5?!?!?! Haven’t heard squat from poorlene in this campaign but on those figures you’d have to rate Malcolm Roberts a shot at being reelected
A bunch of Canberra depsecs no doubt just did a collective facepalm at the thought of more of his efforts in estimates……
”
adam bankssays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:15 pm
Some of the minor party and independent candidates are smart, talented and successful people. So good to have some of them in parliament.
However I think one should still be realistic about some things.
”
Smart independent and minor party MPs should be in a position to review and advice major party government but not dictate what major party government should do.
1. Review and advice is possible when the major party government is in majority.
2. Dictate and demand happens when major party is in minority.
3. In current conditions, a majority government is essential, the reasons for which I wrote previously. ALP government is the only government, which will at least listen to minor party and independent suggestions, whether they implement it or not is another story.
4. Dutton majority government will not listen to minor or Independents, if they get majority.
Pageboi @ #609 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 9:53 pm
Even worse, if the One Nation vote is actually that high, they could end up winning seats from other states as well. Mostly at the expense of the LNP, but if they do then they’ll be locked in until 2031 (unless of course a double dissolution election happens before then).
YouGov combined Phon/trumpet vote isn’t far off (a MOE) from 2022.
Kirsdarkesays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:56 pm
Pageboi @ #609 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 9:53 pm
Phon on 10.5?!?!?! Haven’t heard squat from poorlene in this campaign but on those figures you’d have to rate Malcolm Roberts a shot at being reelected
A bunch of Canberra depsecs no doubt just did a collective facepalm at the thought of more of his efforts in estimates……
Even worse, if the One Nation vote is actually that high, they could end up winning seats from other states as well. Mostly at the expense of the LNP, but if they do then they’ll be locked in until 2031 (unless of course a double dissolution election happens before then).
___________________
Is the public service going to do ab “orange book” now?
Bulldogs sort of redeemed themselves to score 3 tries in the 2nd half but still lost 42 to 18 to the Broncos.
Still 6 wins out of 7 games for the dogs keeps them in top spot .
I think the more astonishing figure from the poll is the LNP on 31%….If thats even within 5% margin of being true then Dutto is toast
Just goes to show how successful Hanson can be when she keeps her mouth shut.
If Dutton had been able to get away with that the Libs wouldn’t be in this mess.
”
Entropysays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:18 pm
nadia88says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:15 pm
Latest YouGov
Labor 53.5% 2PP
* ALP 33.5%
* LNP 31%
* Grn 14%
* PHON 10.5% ( Gosh, they’ve broken the 10% barrier for, I believe, the first time)
Link: https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/52063-yougov-poll-labor-reaches-record-high-two-party-preferred-lead-as-coalition-primary-vote-slumps
===================================================
Wow!
ALP primary 2.5% above the LNP one.
Looks like PHON not only got Centre’s vote but Scromoll, PP and Fubars.
”
Centre’s vote went to Palmer party.
But why scromo would vote for PHON when scromo posted that Dutton is ‘once in a 200 year’ leader
I am doubtful that FUBAR will vote 1 for PHON. But PP may vote PHON 1. 🙂
Boerwar says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:29 pm
The Sundries to have the BOP in the House and PHON to have the BOP in the Senate?
I warned youse!
==========================
Depends where the PHON vote is banking up. Per Bludgertrack, it appears S.A. has the highest PHON vote aggregate.
If it’s banking up in Tassie, then I think we’re going to see Pauline’s daughter elected there, probably replacing Jacqui.
Anyway, WB manages to extract the state vote tallies from youGov, so I suppose we’ll see exactly where the PHON vote is aggregating in due course.
That move in the betting markets $1.14 to $6.10. Wow! That’s a whooska moment if ever there was one. WHOOSKA BABOOSHKA!
subgeometer @ #597 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 9:40 pm
Yes, one wonders where those 7 pickups for the LNP in Victoria are going to come from now?
Team Katichsays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:58 pm
YouGov combined Phon/trumpet vote isn’t far off (a MOE) from 2022.
======================================================
Yep, PHON got 5% and UAP 4.1% for a combined vote of 9.1% in the 2022 election.
Kevin Bonham tweet
“Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham·1m
hmmm…
#YouGov ALP 33.5 L-NP 31 GRN 14 ON 10.5 (yep) IND 5 TOP 2 Other 4
2PP 53.5 to ALP (+0.5) by YouGov modified prefs
I get 55.0 (+0.5) by 2022 prefs
Voters are offered candidate names as per ballot.”
It doesn’t matter how many folk vote for PHON and ToP (within reason). What matters is where their preferences go.
The Albonator @ #615 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 10:01 pm
What will he backflip on tomorrow?
Pauline is on Sky News quite a bit
Dutton’s the Hot Potato no one wants touch.
‘Radioactive’ comes to mind…
”
nadia88says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:18 pm
To say the “right” vote is fragmenting, is probably an understatement.
Trumpets 2%, but PHON at 10.5%, … from a reputable poster.
YouGov polls internationally. They are not a “nonsense polling outfit”.
Gosh – 10.5% for Pauline. I need a glass of wine & an emergency cigarette
”
nadia
Do you know why PHON vote is increasing and L-NP vote is decreasing?
RWNJs think Hanson is genuine and Dutton is not.
RWNJs think that he betrayed them by backflipping on many LNP policies and in their opinion became ALP lite.
How come no YouGov numbers for the Trumpets?
If I’ve missed this being discussed before I apologise but given this blog isn’t separated into easily seen topics then it involves a lot of scrolling.
How is it legal that I receive a text message from “Trumpets” that I have no option to block the number?
In my small business if I send an email I have to have an “unsubscribe” option.
What disturbs me most is that any other text message that I have that is similar is a company or government entity that I do “business” (business or personal) with. I have never willingly given my number to that group. How did they get my number and how is it legal?
@nadia88says: Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:38 pm
“Could you possibly offer a political comment regarding the Hanson vote and her voting cohort. Do they think Dutton is “too woke”, and as such wish to park their vote to the right of Dutton? Will this return to Labor 35-65%, or much lower?
Interested in your honest opinion, if you can drop a line please. If not, maybe Meher, Arange, Bludg Westie or Fubar?”
~~~
I’m still shocked ngl. But regarding ur question about whether Labor can return to 35% primaries and 65% 2pp, I doubt Labor will return to these levels. PHON voters have gotten more disciplined with their preferences since 2022 so I think more of it will flow to the Coalition this time around. Not to mention PHON is preferencing Liberals 2nd in seats like Blair, Lyons, Paterson, Calare, Hunter, etc.
As for why those on the right will be voting PHON. I did go around and speak to some of my PHON supporting friends ik to better flesh out my semblance of an idea on why they would vote PHON over Liberals. Before anyone judges, I knew them before they became Far Right, I don’t hold their views, nor do I endorse them.
To boil it down in 2 points:
1. They view the Liberals as being a part of the establishment; ideologically the same as Labor and both parties are funded by corporations and lobbyists. Imo it’s a variant of the 2 Party Duopoly, just from a far right position.
2. The Liberals had 9 years to implement the policies like free speech laws, lowering immigration and slashing government waste but have failed to do so. Therefore their promises to do so now (and their mimicry of Trump) sounds moot. They want proper change and think PHON will be the party that brings about decisive action.
As a side note, we stopped off at a local suburban shopping mall (small centre just Coles and aldi and some small shops), it’s NOT a prepoll location, and at around 6om there was a trumpet handing out for some reason. My wife politely declined to take a pamphlet and was met with an absolute torrent of abuse from this clearly deranged woman. I resisted the urge to tear strips off her, there’s no saving someone dumb enough to hand out for Clive Palmer and not even at a polling place…..
Vensays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:03 pm
”
Entropysays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:18 pm
nadia88says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:15 pm
Latest YouGov
Labor 53.5% 2PP
* ALP 33.5%
* LNP 31%
* Grn 14%
* PHON 10.5% ( Gosh, they’ve broken the 10% barrier for, I believe, the first time)
Link: https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/52063-yougov-poll-labor-reaches-record-high-two-party-preferred-lead-as-coalition-primary-vote-slumps
===================================================
Wow!
ALP primary 2.5% above the LNP one.
Looks like PHON not only got Centre’s vote but Scromoll, PP and Fubars.
”
Centre’s vote went to Palmer party.
But why scromo would vote for PHON when scromo posted that Dutton is ‘once in a 200 year’ leader
I am doubtful that FUBAR will vote 1 for PHON. But PP may vote PHON 1.
\===============================================
Fair enough, what i posted was probably not true.
Just a joking way to suggest the LNP had just lost a fair section of its right flank to PHON.
nadia88 @ #613 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 10:03 pm
Pauline’s daughter has a pretty much non-existent presence in the south of the state, Jacquie has her old signs out that are at least a decade old, but there’s lots of them.
It would not surprise me if PHOn replaced JLN, and even though I’m not a fan of JLN, that would be a backward step for the senate. I’m expecting Tas voters to punish JLN for the debacle in the state parliament where JLN couldn’t hold their party together for 12 months.
If PHON does win a lower house seat (very unlikely) I expect the party to break up in the normal 12 month window as well.
The YouGov poll says Libs on 31%.
A comment was that is the lowest since Libs formed in 1944.
But I think that might even overlook that 6% of the Coal vote is Nats. So Libs on 25%
Holdenhillbilly says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:48 pm
In 2022 65% of PHON preferences went to the LNP.
…………………………………………………………………………………….
As Cousin Eddy would ask “Are you serious, holdenhillbilly?
parkySP @ #624 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 10:10 pm
It’s legal because its a political party. There was no way the laws around blocking contact was ever going to apply to political parties. They get your number because they buy contact lists, or have access to the electoral role.
Are there any seats actually vulnerable to One Nation at the moment? I’ve heard a bit of murmurings in the outer west of Melbourne, but would have thought this came mostly at the expense of Palmer’s latest waste of everyone’s time as Labor + Greens + assorted left is too strong out there.
It’s the interesting thing with Dutton’s “outer suburban campaign”, trying to say Trumpy things without saying it, causing the audience who’s actually receptive to it to move from the Libs to ON/further afield. I’ve thought for a while it’s a serious misreading of the electorate and strategically quite bizarre. This election is possibly going to be a lesson in how you do have to consider the local political context before trying to import a strategy from another country (and probably also your party/leader’s ability to implement such a strategy).
It’s also interesting given the media and commentary focus has been on how the reduction in major party vote could affect the Greens and Teals, without any real discussion on what it means for any party outside of that, despite ON and “others” seeming to be the main beneficiary in the polling.
If it’s banking up in Tassie, then I think we’re going to see Pauline’s daughter elected there, probably replacing Jacqui.
Zero chance
PHON have never done anything in Tassie
Last time less than 4% and Lambie got up a nobody
We really need FUBAR to comment on the view from within the right wing echo chamber to explain the move from Libs to One Nation although I do like my guess that it is the Trumpy voters pissed off at Dutton denying their master three times – and at Easter!
That PHON figure interests me from the pov that today when I voted at the pre poll the PHON guy handing out their HTV seemed very much like an Ex Army guy and so I’m wondering whether a breakdown of the PHON vote would show a lot of types like that, MAGA believers, White Nationalists and Far Right-leaning males in general who have been sucked into the Manosphere and the podcasts they do?
There was no PHON or JLN presence at the southern early voting center in Franklin.
Socrates at 10.06pm.
KB is an hour behind our nadia88 with poll drops.
Scroll back.
Greens back to 14%. Go the Greens.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 9:16 pm
*****flash*****
A dispute between Pakistan and India is escalating: Following an attack which killed 26 people in the Indian-administered Kashmir region, Indian Prime Minister Modi has said they will punish ‘every terrorist and their backers.
India has rolled out a series of diplomatic moves against its neighbour Pakistan and accused it of supporting “cross-border terrorism” after a deadly attack in Kashmir sent relations to their worst levels in years. It is believed militants killed 26 men – all but one of whom was Indian – at Himalayan tourist spot Pahalgam, in the deadliest attack on civilians on Indian soil in nearly two decades. India suspends Indus Waters Treaty as tensions with Pakistan surge. Pakistan says it is suspending trade with India. India calls on its citizens to leave Pakistan.
In response:
– Pakistan has suspended all trade with India
– Pakistan has also closed its airspace to Indian aircraft
– India has suspended visa services for all Pakistani nationals
– India has also called on citizens to leave Pakistan immediately
– India has expelled Pakistani military diplomats
– A landmark water-sharing Treaty has also been suspended between the two countries
– Pakistan has said it will consider the suspension of the Treaty as an ‘act of war’ should the flow of water stop
”
And West lost whatever leverage against India when they went all in with Israel in Gaza war.
I saw Modi speech. He absolutely meant what he said. He was talking in Hindi and then in middle of speech he changed he started talking in English to convey his message to the world.
This is the biggest terrorist attack under his watch. The opposition are demanding action. People all over India are absolutely furious.
With Trump in office and Macron being very good friend of Modi, no world leader may be able to restrain Modi.
@Bludgeoned Westie “To boil it down in 2 points:
1. They view the Liberals as being a part of the establishment; ideologically the same as Labor and both parties are funded by corporations and lobbyists. Imo it’s a variant of the 2 Party Duopoly, just from a far right position.”
Something something horseshoe theory.
Pageboisays:
“was met with an absolute torrent of abuse from this clearly deranged woman”
That’s nuts! MAGA style.
Cat
No doubt PHON attracts a high percentage of ex ADF service voters. But as a demographic they can’t explain 10.5% vote share.
The total ADF now is roughly 60,000 plus 30,000 reserves. That is army, navy and air force. Even including former soldiers of all ages the total in the community is 580,000. That is under 3% of voters.
Expatsays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 6:53 pm
Talking footy teams:
It’s easy to be nostalgic about Fitzroy, but before the AFL killed them off, they were already struggling from a legacy of questionable business decisions.
Nath mentioned the Brunswick Street Oval – as nice a place as it is, it was also part of the problem. Turning it into a modern boutique venue just wasn’t financially viable, even by 1960s standards, and a club without a home base was in dire straits pretty quick.
All that said, I’m a Footscray man from way back, and I know what it’s like to be staring down the barrel.
According to research, the Dogs have the highest % of the supporter base who vote Labor by the way, a long margin ahead of Collingwood and Richmond, who are 2nd and 3rd respectively.
Great to see a fellow Scragger on PB.
In Bont We Trust.
Brunswick Oval is a lovely little ground, but it could never have been a long term option in the modern game. I still think Carlton could play from a renovated Princes Park, but I doubt that would ever happen.
I played for Edinburgh Gardens Cricket Club (Z Grade) and sometimes watched the Fitzroy Reds down at BO and every home game, Kevin Murray would be selling raffle tickets. He would always be dressed well, slacks, collared shirt, jacket, Fitzroy/Lions tie and his Brownlow around his neck.
Chatted with him a few times, what a friendly and humble bloke, he seemed like an absolute champion.
I spent a few lovely days playing social bowls at the Fitzroy Bowls Club, a great place to be on a sunny Melbourne afternoon.
Ven,
Isn’t China funding Pakistan to a large degree? And doesn’t China also have a border dispute with India, which I thought they had resolved amicably recently?
@C@t:
“How come no YouGov numbers for the Trumpets”
They were at 2%.
Sportsbet: Coalition odds have drifted from 4.30 to 5.80.
Coalition Primary vote of 31 equates to 80 seats for Labor.
No wonder Dutton’s favourite network tonight are obsessed with Ali Frances’s social media posts from 2017.
This is the worst Liberal campaign in my memory – Howard always had a professional outfit behind him, none of that with Team Dutton.