A record 542,143 voters cast their ballots on the first day of early voting on Tuesday, compared with 314,496 on the first day in 2022. Four thousand of those who voted yesterday and on Tuesday across 19 seats were surveyed as part of an “exit poll” conducted by the News Corp papers, an exercise I am a little dubious about, particularly when reported at seat level from samples of barely more than 200 each. The degree of care needed to produce properly illuminating results does not seem to have been taken: the swing figures reported at seat level do not take account of redistributions, and at national level the results are aggregated and compared to the party totals from 2022, without regard to the peculiarities of the targeted electorates.
Let’s be optimistic though and say that broadly representative voting centres were chosen, and that to the extent that they were not, the problem cancels out when results are aggregated across multiple electorates (and also that the earliest early voters are representative of the whole, which is impossible to say) (UPDATE: Adrian Beaumont points out that US experience says voters earlier in the period tend to be older, which may explain some of the weak results for the Greens). In the following analysis, I have gone to the effort of basing swing calculations off redistribution-adjusted results from 2022 at pre-poll voting centres only:
• The three Greens-held Brisbane seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith were all targeted, with average results of Greens 33.7%, up 2.4%; Labor 31.8%, up 5.2%; and LNP 32.8%, down 2.9%.
• Average results in the New South Wales seats of Werriwa, Gilmore, Paterson and Bennelong were Labor 43.1%, up 4.3%; Liberal 37.2%, down 2.5%; and Greens 4.8%, down 2.8%. I have excluded the part of North Sydney that was transferred to Bennelong from my baseline calculation here, due to the complication there of teal independent Kylea Tink.
• Average results in the Victorian seats of Corangamite, Chisholm, Bruce and McEwen were Labor 42.1%, up 3.4%; Coalition 40.1%, up 4.6%; and Greens 8.6%, down 3.5%.
• Boothby and Sturt averaged Labor 44.5%, up 13.3%; Liberal 44.3%, down 0.3%; and Greens 9.0%, down 4.5%.
• In the two seats with competitive teals, Goldstein and Bradfield, there was an average Liberal vote of 43.5%, up 0.6%, and an average teal vote of 32.5%, up 2.3%. In this case I did not include areas added to Goldstein in the redistribution for the baseline, as they did not have a teal candidate in 2022.
Other seats covered by the exercise were Leichhardt, McPherson, Lyons and Solomon.
There is another item of polling in the shape of a second Ipsos poll for the Daily Mail, which provides leadership ratings but not voting intention. Anthony Albanese is up three on approval since last week to 38% and steady on disapproval at 39%. The report says only that Peter Dutton has a net rating of minus 20, unchanged on last week when he recorded 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Albanese leads 46-32 as preferred prime minister, out from 44-30. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 2000.
Lynchpin @ #689 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 11:15 pm
It’s honestly hard to say, but I have doubts that the ON to LNP preferential flow would get as strong as the Greens to Labor preferential flow.
I don’t see how PHON gets 10%+ buuuuut it might still be telling a meta story of the Libs bleeding first pref votes to the fringe which would explain their craven pivot to law and order and defence (something many of us have hypothecated for the past week and a bit).
Ante Meridien, ‘Adolescence’ is quite harrowing, especially the last episode. I believe that the British PM Starmer has somehow made viewing of it free. I recommend it to everyone to see, whether or not you have kids and young adults in your life. Eye opening indeed.
@Kirsdarke
“I’m sure her new best friend Gina Rinehart is hoping to use her for something in this election.”
The weird think is for Gina election night at Mar a Lago was ‘the best night of my life’ Rinehart she hasn’t tried
I’m sure she would do a much better job than Palmer but thankfully it seems she couldn’t be arsed.
Perhaps she already has enough control over Lib and Lab anyway
Kirsdarke buddy old mate what the hell is going on in your part of the world?!. Are the nats really a chance ?!!
Reason4says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 11:22 pm
The weird think is for Gina election night at Mar a Lago was ‘the best night of my life’ Rinehart she hasn’t tried
______________________
I read that line with a rather uncomfortable innuendo…
“if preference flow statistically 80/20 to Libs from ONP, and say 50% of ONP voters follow the HTV cards”
If One Nation has preference the LNP (and ON finish 3rd) and their voters are following their HTV cards then these two statements don’t line up because you don’t get 80/20 preferencing if their voters follow the HTV card.
C@tmomma says Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:46 pm
There are a lot of echo chambers on social media, so what’s happening on the right wing fringe can easily fly under the radar.
If this poll is in anyway accurate I wonder if the Liberals are now regretting preferencing PHON? They did it in WA a few years ago and it bit them big time.
Last week I couldn’t get a simple differential equation right even though I was the one who asked the question, so I refuse to try to work out the PHON preferencing equation.
But I’ll say this : Labor and the Liberals won’t get 40% each, so the starting assumptions are scheisse.
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:24 pm
Ven,
Isn’t China funding Pakistan to a large degree? And doesn’t China also have a border dispute with India, which I thought they had resolved amicably recently?
”
I think Modi has something serious in mind. I don’t know what it is.
China is founder of BRICS along with India and Russia. Russia will side with India. Pakistan is not part of BRICS.
Pakistan is now regularly admonished by International Islamic council.
US under Trump will not be receptive of Pakistan complaints.
The Vance couple have either completed their trip to India or in the middle of it when this Terrorist attack happened.
Modi was in Saudi Arabia on when this terrorist attack happened. He cut short that visit and went back to India. This terrorist attack originated from Pakistan.
Those terrorists asked the tourists to Kashmir what their religion is and killed them. 2 foreign tourists were also killed.
Well done LNP, you have legitimised Pauline. The LNP and One Nation have 1/2ed each other in 137 seats.
Dutton=pauline=trump.
OK, instead of Dutton sacking 41,000 public servants mainly out of Canberra, maybe he can do a triple backflip and say ‘I didn’t mean I’ll sack them but I’ll deploy them to answering the phones at Centrelink, the Dept of Social Services, NDIS etc where the average ‘on hold’ wait time is about 45 minutes.
Now he might win the election because if he can shorten the time on the phone listening to those recordings over and over about your call is important or you can request a call back but you won’t miss your place in the queue or having the line drop out on you after 1 hour on the phone.
”
Dr Doolittlesays:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 10:28 pm
nadia88 at 9.15, 9.38 and 10.03 pm, Arky at 9.48 pm, Ven at 10.09 pm and Bludgeoned Westie at 10.10 pm
Before you bother aggregating 10% for Hanson consider if it is real, i.e. if the 3.5% rise from the previous YouGov poll is credible. Hint: it isn’t.
As Arky said, the Hanson figure is most probably inflated.
Remember what Bob Hogg said after the 1990 election. If you get a 4% shift in a week there is an outlier. Even more so for a minor like Hanson.
It is possible that this YouGov poll has more of a skew to older voters, despite the drop in the Lib vote. Also, the conservative group could be more skewed toward Hanson and away from Libs, compared to the last poll.
Hogg was speaking a few weeks after the 1990 election, criticising the media for their incredulity on polls.
”
Dr. D
ALP PV is currently in the range of 32-34%. So Labor is almost static
So what is happening is that L-NP vote is collapsing. Where I don’t know. Even if you think PHON vote is between 6-8%. that doesn’t account for L-NP collapse from around 39% to 31 %.
@ Dr Doolittle
“Hanson would have foundered except for the help she got along the way”
Quite likely but the point is she was dragging enough of the redneck vote away from Howard that he was forced to copy her … actually strike that, he could have challenged her and called out her racism – he chose to copy her instead. The LNP haven’t been bothered with the dog whistle ever since
You know what I’ll make my opinion tomorrow but yeah I think the coalitions f***** there’s no coming back the probably the other problem is where’s one nation popular oh it’s in Queensland in areas where it’s already popular okay so who’s more confident that Labour’s going to win
leftieBrawler @ #700 Thursday, April 24th, 2025 – 11:24 pm
No chance in Ballarat since the Nationals are not running a candidate. It’s Bendigo where the Liberals and Nationals are running against the Labor incumbent. And since they have a 61-39 margin to overcome there, probably not happening.
So now that Gina is out with her own defence policy (and seemingly campaigning against the LNP), is there a chance of a Gina backed party ala Clives bugles in 2028? Clive is targeting Gina with his ” iron ore royalties” pledge after all.
Also, now that Gina let the 5% defence spend of GDP out in the open, all it does is make Dutton look weak to whoever actually cares about that number.
WhAtEvEr HaPpEnNeD tO tHe GuY wHo UsEd To PoSt LiKe ThIs.
WhAt WaS hIs NaMe AgAiN ?
True Believer says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 11:57 pm
WhAtEvEr HaPpEnNeD tO tHe GuY wHo UsEd To PoSt LiKe ThIs.
WhAt WaS hIs NaMe AgAiN ?
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Was it DaS KaPItaL?
I think it was das too many kapitals.
Kirks I must confess as someone who was raised on the firmly rugby league NSW south coast I had little subtlety for the Victorian towns. For many a new south Welshman the differences between Ballarat and Bendigo are trivial at best.
But in the years I’ve come to learn that while both are on the outer fridges of the northern Melbourne metroplex it is Ballarat that has a more gritty urban Labor vibe to it compared to the slightly more rural, smaller and provincial Bendigo.
Bizzcan says Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 11:55 pm
I’m assuming Gina isn’t calling for tax increases to pay for the extra defence spending. So, she must have some pretty large expectations around spending cuts.
Ven at 11.47 pm
Look at the state figures in updated BT.
The only state where Labor is down compared to 2022 is Victoria and now down there less than 2%.
Everywhere else Labor is up, fairly marginally in QLD but significantly in NSW and a lot in WA and SA.
And most of that has occurred in the past 4 weeks, including recovery in Victoria.
Ven, haven’t you noticed the absence, for whatever reason, of the sub-prime speculator, Lars? Clearly the Labor primary will be well above 30%.
The main shift in the past 6 weeks has been voters going from Lib back to Labor. Everything else is quite minor.
Dr Bonham’s aggregate is now 52.7%, excluding the Hanson bonus to Libs.
That is the same as the 2007 election.
Yes, the Labor primary is much less than 2007, but this is a preferential system and that primary has grown in the past 6 weeks, to such an extent that even a cautious man like A_E will soon be expecting a Labor majority.
Reason4 says Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 11:48 pm
I don’t think Howard was that far from Hanson on many non economic issues anyway. The only reason he disendorsed her in the 1996 election was because of his sensitivity to criticisms about racism based on his past history. I also think that if he hadn’t disendorsed Hanson she probably would not have won in 1996 and would now be a forgotten footnote in the dustbin of history.
Dr Doolittlesays:
Friday, April 25, 2025 at 12:11 am
Ven at 11.47 pm
Look at the state figures in updated BT.
The only state where Labor is down compared to 2022 is Victoria and now down there less than 2%.
—————————-
Yep Menzies looks the only seat in labor’s column flipping to the liberals but phon might push McEwen across the line and Aston gets talked about as a liberal win but that might change by next week.
After losing a long time pet today, we tried to cheer up through John Oliver, there was much on tariffs, and also this, https://dutchreview.com/news/john-oliver-loves-this-dutch-fish-doorbell/
Enjoy the long weekend, apparently Warfare is the latest movie that’ll sort any glorification of war
@Dr Doolittle:
“Before you bother aggregating 10% for Hanson consider if it is real, i.e. if the 3.5% rise from the previous YouGov poll is credible. Hint: it isn’t.
As Arky said, the Hanson figure is most probably inflated.”
You should note that one of the reasons for the huge jump is that for YouGov this is the poll where they start doing readouts of the actual candidates in a person’s seat, rather than generic. If not for that I’d agree that such a huge swing in one week is fanciful, but this is swing produced by a methodology change.
As such, the “independent” column collapsed – many people who say they will vote independent to the generic question discover there is no good independent in their seat. It makes sense that a lot of this finds a home in minor parties, and One Nation seems to have hoovered up the right wing independent portion of that.
I think the numbers for the minors in YouGov look a bit inflated just on general principle rather than that jump specifically – a little out of whack, and in at least the past few elections state and federal most pollsters miss a point or two high on the Greens primary, which could be people changing their minds on the day or whatever.
I have updated my election forecast model. The latest version incorporates a polling error variable (kindly suggested by AEF) to account for the possibility of the polls getting it wrong to a similar degree as they did in 2019.
The median seat forecast values are the same, but the likely ranges of seats are extended and as a result, the LNP win probabilities increase somewhat, but are still very low.
In my view, the $1.20 on offer for the ALP on TAB is overs. I think they should be more like $1.08.
Full explanation of the model with discussion on the results: https://socialchangemedia.net.au/blog/2025-federal-election-forecast-model-primer
Labor reaches record high two-party preferred lead as coalition primary vote slumps
YouGov
YouGov
Politics & current affairs
April 24, 2025, 7:08 PM GMT+8
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The latest YouGov Public Data poll reveals a significant shift in the political landscape, with the Labor Party surging to its highest two-party preferred (2PP) rating this term, now leading the Coalition 53.5% to 46.5% — a 0.5% increase since the April 18th poll.
Labor also leads on the primary vote for the first time this term, recording 33.5% (+0.5%) compared to the Coalition’s 31%, which marks a 2% decline and positions them 4.7% below their 2022 Federal Election result. This would represent the lowest primary vote ever recorded by the Coalition since the Liberal Party’s founding in 1944 if replicated at the next Federal election.
https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/52063-yougov-poll-labor-reaches-record-high-two-party-preferred-lead-as-coalition-primary-vote-slumps
This poll largely makes sense. By doing a pref deal with PHON Dutton has effectively endorsed them as a Lib-alternate. He has encouraged erstwhile Lib voters to switch columns. Really, he has sacrificed PV in the hope of picking up prefs. In fact, he will drive primary support down. There are many sometime Lib voters who will not wear the deal with PHON.
The destruction of the Reactionary PV is entirely predictable. Duttonism is an absolute electoral truck wreck. He has been campaigning against himself for months, well-supported in this by the other trump-o-maniacs in his party and in the media.
I continue to expect a further decline in the Lib PV, and for prefs to follow the direction of PVs…that is, to Labor and the other counter-Reactionary voices. The aggregated counter-Reactionary vote will ultimately approach 60/40.
The Dutton-led Liberal Party is an ideological monster. They are more or less completely estranged from contemporary opinion…and they are very smugly contented with themselves in their profound political, economic, social and cultural ignorance.
Nothing will save them now. They are ill-organised, very badly-led, incoherent and inconsistent. Voters are generally very happy to choose Albo’s safe hands and to wave goodbye to the Reactionary idiots.
With regard to pets, here’s my favourite quote from John Varley (from memory).
“We are in charge of accommodation, meals, and healthcare. And everything else. They are in charge of love and unconditional loyalty. We get the better of the deal.”
leftieBrawler @ #716 Friday, April 25th, 2025 – 12:04 am
Probably the main difference between Ballarat and Bendigo is that Ballarat is South of the Great Dividing Range, while Bendigo is to the North. Otherwise, yes, they’re pretty much identical big inland Victorian goldfields cities.
Historically, Bendigo has been stronger for Labor, but that was mostly due to Ballarat’s strong Catholic origins, which meant the DLP years from 1955-1973 hit Labor candidates in Ballarat much harder.
These days, since Bendigo is further away from Melbourne than Ballarat, it means that National candidates have given it a much closer contest. In fact at the 2010 state election, the footballer Steven Oliver ran for the Nationals in Bendigo West and polled better than the Liberal candidate, but ultimately lost 53-47 to sitting Labor MP Maree Edwards.
Arky at 12.20 am
Yes, it’s a change partly produced by the altered methodology. What we don’t know is which seats the Hanson voters came from.
It is possible they came from the typical outer urban, rural and less educated seats with higher Hanson voting, more than proportionally.
Consider McEwen. The Hanson vote is unlikely to be 10%, even if it is higher than the VIC average (5%).
If McEwen is lost by Mitchell it will be because he lost votes to Libs for a second election against the national trend, not because Hanson is a big hit.
I have heard stories tonight from Goldstein prepolls of Lib voters turning up very unhappy to see One Nation second on the Lib how to vote and Tim Wilson audibly complaining that head office is fucking him again (I recall he had some similar displeasure that while he was fighting for his political life last time, Morrison kept on saying stuff that went over like a glass of cold sick in the Teal seats). People will remember that Wilson (in one of his few good qualities) previously made a virtue of putting One Nation last.
@Dr Doolittle – how these polling trends map to individual marginal seats remains the great unknown of this election for sure. The lack of published individual seat polling this time is noticeable.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/04/24/news-corp-early-voting-exit-poll-and-ipsos-leadership-polling-open-thread/comment-page-15/#comment-4509400
Interesting, our house was build by people that got their second – having been deported from the quaint island off the coast of Europe – luck in the goldfields of VIC in the 1800s from ‘trading’; though it sounds like they actually ultimately went from TAS by way of VIC and England to Canada (Ontario) …, just looking forward to catching up with council historical society soonish.
Of course, TASmania on maps goes back to 1642 from facts, and potentially longer than that, rather than imagination.
Interesting kirky! Thanks for the clarification around Bendigo. I’d have gone my life assuming that Ballarat, not Bendigo was more labor heartland. Thanks for the local clarification 🙂
Through an amateur pursuit
Of meteorology since I was around 13 due to skiing I always knew that Ballarat straddled the 500 meter ASL mark and thus due to its southerly range invited one or two snow falls a year. In NSW you’d need to be at least 800ish to get some snow
STOP PRESS: Updated forecast that includes the latest YouGov poll.
Source: https://socialchangemedia.net.au/blog/2025-federal-election-forecast
Wow king.
What is the provenance , methodology and capture period ?
leftieBrawlersays:
Friday, April 25, 2025 at 1:04 am
Wow king.
What is the provenance , methodology and capture period ?
—
Based on latest poll aggregations and historical swing variations over the last 6 elections.
All explained in detail here: https://socialchangemedia.net.au/blog/2025-federal-election-forecast-model-primer
King due to many quirks of modern life such as the introduction of the news cycle and the decentralisation of primary source harvesting I place little value on trackers that hold too much weighted cumulative data.
With the dominance of the right wing news MSM over the national political narrative I find these sorts of historical trackers largely irrelevant. The national mood and inclination is much more fluid , dynamic and unpredictable these days when you consider the factors referenced
leftieBrawler I agree that the electorate is becoming more volatile.
The swing variations from the national average down to seat level show this increasing over the last few elections. But my model incorporates these swings variations. It uses how much swings varied from 2022, which was a recent high, as well as potential polling errors based on the 2019 election.
So all I can say is that based on recent history, this forecast is a reasonable expectation.
Regarding Gina Rinehart, I think the reason she hasn’t really been bothered is if she were to seriously try anything in the federal sphere (beyond the type of things she has done to date), then at a state level she losses all power, WA Labor (particularly important for her given commercial interests) would go from trying to maintain a amicable relationship to full battle mode (as seen with the relationship with Clive Palmer going increasingly acrimonious) and Gina as much as she is a maga copycat wannabe, she does not want to have it impact her most precious thing: her wealth (aka: look at palmer’s ability to get projects done now and also Tesla’s shares due to Elon and DOGE).
I’m tellin’ ya, the Liberal Party are in the midst of taking over Hanson’s One Nation with a view that in the future, they will be Sky/Gina’s/IPA glove puppets completely and to hell with the so-called moderates of the Liberal Party; those remaining that is.
The Liberals have conceded this election and will install Hastie, another Morrison type nutter but prettier. This election is to gauge electorate response to the PHON-“Liberal” unity ticket for future reference and strategic planning. The National Party is also part of the deal.
The moderates will have to make a choice: “teals” or ALP but no way the Greens. Same applies to the National’s constituency although, there has been growing resentment to the current National political Party by many who have voted for them over the decades. This is because of COVID and the infiltration of the conspiracy/anti-vax so and sos; in other words, the current National party are not right-wing enough for many of their adherents ….. come on down Hanson’s One Nation Party.
@leftiebrawler at 12:48am
My grandpa (who grew up in Stawell) has noted that there’s a distinct difference in towns in Victoria North and South of the Great Dividing Range. While at points it’s not a very high mountain range, in fact it’s barely 300m above sea level where it crosses between Stawell and Ararat, there’s a lot of subtle differences between the two towns, well, outside of the obvious ones such as Ararat being connected to the state railway system and Stawell not, that’s more of a modern development.
New thread.
Just how many Russian agents in Trump administration?
Hegseth reportedly had unsecured internet connection set up to use Signal in his Pentagon office
Hegseth had an unsecured internet connection set up in his Pentagon office so that he could bypass government security.
@Nadia last night:
“ Sorry, just after brutal pseph analysis, not partisan BS please.”
_________
Lols, the chutzpah of that post.
@Dr Doolittle:
“ Yes, the Labor primary is much less than 2007, but this is a preferential system and that primary has grown in the past 6 weeks, to such an extent that even a cautious man like A_E will soon be expecting a Labor majority.”
_____
I see no reason to shift from my NY punt that Labor will end up with 75 seats after the final count.
Anzac Day NRL match in Melbourne – Welcome To Country cancelled!
Good.
Now if the incoming government would grow the balls to announce a national ban on Welcome to Country ceremonies before public events and to end “Pride rounds”.