A major campaign milestone is reached today with the commencement of early voting. The third of the campaign’s leaders’ debates will be conducted from 7:30pm this evening by the Nine Network, to be moderated by A Current Affair host Ally Langdon with questions posed by Charles Croucher of Nine, Deb Knight of 2GB and Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review. The Roy Morgan poll that normally comes out on Monday will presumably be along later today. Note that there is a new post below this one on a state poll for New South Wales.
Other than that:
• The Courier-Mail reports a DemosAU poll collectively targeting the Greens-held Brisbane seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan has the Liberal National Party on 36% and the Greens and Labor on 29% each, compared with 35.7% for the LNP, 30.7% for the Greens and 26.2% for Labor at the 2022 election. Were the implied swings to occur uniformly across the three seats, the likely outcome would be Labor gaining Brisbane and the Greens retaining Ryan and Griffith. The poll was conducted “mid-April” from a sample of 1087. UPDATE: The poll further includes a finding of 56-44 two-party preferred between Labor and the LNP and 55-45 between the Greens and the LNP.
• The Financial Review reports a Nationals source as being “pessimistic about Cowper”, where Pat Conaghan is under pressure from teal independent Caz Heise, but believing the party to be ahead in Calare, where former Nationals member Andrew Gee seeks re-election as an independent and teal independent Kate Hook is again in the field after performing strongly in 2022. In the latter case, the source says “if only one independent had run, that independent would have won”.
• The News Corp papers report that One Nation is changing its how-to-vote cards in Hunter and Paterson to elevate the Coalition, having initially favoured right-wing minor parties and independents, and is reviewing the situation elsewhere. Hanson’s chief-of-staff, James Ashby, is quoted saying the party was “was restructuring its preferences in seats where the Trumpet of Patriots has put the chance of a conservative candidate’s success ‘at risk’” – though this is not in fact the case in Hunter or Paterson, where Palmer’s party has Labor last in keeping with its approach of directing against sitting members (in a related development, its candidate for Flinders is telling voters to put him last out of displeasure at his how-to-vote card favouring teal independent Ben Smith). The only seats I can think of where One Nation does not already have the Coalition ahead of everyone it could conceivably lose to are Kennedy, where Bob Katter is presumably safe, and Monash, where a second preference is recommended for Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent, for whom Trumpet of Patriots has made an exception by placing him third behind another independent.
Ven
MTG would probably call Jesus evil or woke if he born now.
___________________________________
No doubt she would condemn him as not being a true Christian.
With 11 days to go, the betting markets are largely unchanged since Newspoll.
@ work to rule
The seat betting is stagnant too. Not enough marginal polling at this stage.
”
Stocks tumble and dollar hits three-year low as Trump bashes Powell again: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/21/investing/us-stock-market/index.html
”
What is with Trump and Stock markets tumbling.
Trump has opened battle lines on so many fronts, it is unbelievable. Added to that he has evil, bad and incompetent people in his candidate.
As I see Trump will not be able to win on any of these fronts.
He may think the only way to control the situation is Martial law.
Folks, we are in for a very ugly ride.
Only ALP can cushion the impact of ride to an extent.
As we speak Trump is destroying Western way of life. The only way to preserve current orthodoxy is by fighting him head on.
Nice graph but I think the legend should be in the same order as the stacked bars.
What does suspending the campaign actually mean in practice?
@C@t
Labor will lose Aston by default, likely McEwen and maybe Chisholm on a very generous swing to LNP of 3-4% 2PP.
Any other seat in Victoria is a 5%+ outer suburban safe ALP seat that is strongly affected by COL. These seats will not have a significant PV increase for LNP but an increasing right and to some extent left minors PV.
It would be a large upset if Labor lost more than Aston, McEwen and Chisholm on current polling.
Socrates @ #89 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 10:50 am
Unleaded Petrol down to $1.59/litre at my local Servo yesterday. And that’s during the annual Easter price spike period. Can’t imagine what it will be next week or when Trump succeeds in screwing the American Bond markets completely? Which point will come at the end of his 90 Day Tariff Pause, unless he bottles it again. Even then the destabilisation that will cause may tip America into at least a Recession. Not to mention what China will do should he continue his farce against them. They being the largest holders of American Bonds.
I thoroughly recommend the Stephen Bartholomeusz article about it all if you want an easy to comprehend explanation of the full horror Trump may cause:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/regulators-warned-the-us-bond-market-was-vulnerable-trump-is-proving-them-right-20250421-p5lt3q.html
TPOFsays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 10:57 am
In the past, when the voting % was a lot lower, there was clear evidence that pre-poll was biased towards the LNP voters. But as the voting % has increased, pre-poll has naturally become more of a representative sample of the electorate. So I suspect this bias has greatly diminished, to the point where it may be negligible.
Interesting point on undecideds. There may be a case to argue that as pre-polling progresses, the proportion of undecided voters of the electorate remaining to vote increases, potentially making the vote on polling day more volatile.
pithicus says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 11:04 am
Regarding the tobacco wars, I just checked the price for 50 grams of rolling tobacco. It’s around $150.00 au.
I think the cost of “chop chop” as it’s called is around $25.00 for 50 grams.
______________________________________________
I’m very disappointed that the Government won’t step back from the ultra high duty being charged on tobacco products. I’m all for a tax penalty on tobacco as a way of discouraging smoking, but even when cigarettes were a lot cheaper people still gave up for financial reasons – the savings calculations were really quite the incentives even then.
If duty is too high, then it becomes a form of prohibition – and when you have prohibition you have organised crime with the incentive to enter the market. Law enforcement does not work – if it did we wouldn’t have the problems with all sorts of illicit drugs that we still have. All that happens is that if you take one player out of the game, it just presents an opportunity for another player to step into the vacuum. As long as the rewards are high, there will always be people prepared to take the risk. Especially if the risk is borne by underlings or other dispensable people while the bosses get the rewards.
Tobacco addiction is a complex thing. Great strides have been made in massively reducing the number of smokers through what has been done to date. But the prices need to be enough to encourage quitting (or not taking it up) but no so high that going to criminals is a feasible, perhaps necessary, way to maintain the addiction when giving up is simply not an option.
Ven @ #88 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 10:49 am
Basically, preference funnelling machines.
I think Labor state governments should build low bridges with overhanging cladding everywhere to catch Liberal message trucks each election. 😉
Diogenes @ #102 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 11:16 am
I think it means Dutton is losing.
@TPOF
“If duty is too high, then it becomes a form of prohibition – and when you have prohibition you have organised crime with the incentive to enter the market”
===============================
This is exactly what’s happened.
@ Scepticsays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 7:07 am
Didn’t see this one coming….
Investors in Boeing……………
(I was reading that China has cancelled between 170 t0 180 planes from Boeing).
Diogenes @ #101 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 11:16 am
Shorter queue at the servo.
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:16 am
Victoria
I haven’t checked the crime statistics for other states.
My point is that Dutton has something real to work with in Victoria.
More importantly, no Day no HOKball?
=====================================================
Crime rates are higher in Queensland than in Victoria. Check the statistics for police proceedings in the linked document. Then, also incorporate the court action section. For instance, NSW has very high police proceedings but very low court proceedings for them. Unlike other states , NSW police charge people for fare evasion; other states rely solely on transport inspectors for this.
Overall, far more crimes go before the courts in Queensland than in Victoria, even though Victoria has the larger population.
So for 2023-24:
Victoria had 103987 police proceedings of which 76% went on to court action.
Queensland had 149836 police proceedings of which 80% went on to court action.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-offenders/latest-release#police-proceedings
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-20/australian-bureau-of-statistics-household-crime-qld-nt/103608778
WA Liberals railed against the upgrading of perths public transport system.
They should be grateful that the famous Bayswater subway was removed.
https://howmanydayssincebayswaterbridgehasbeenhit.com/
One less place for their trucks to come to grief
Some speculation about the Senate after the election:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/22/whoever-wins-australias-election-will-need-to-work-with-the-senate-heres-how-it-could-look
C@t
“Out of 8 candidates 6 candidates are from right wing reactionaries (Libs and ON) and RWNJ.
Although the Liberals get around 40% PV here, this time RW votes will be split in 6 ways.
Progressive votes will be split into 2.”
Basically, preference funnelling machines.
___________________________________
It won’t matter in Hughes, but a large number of right-wing candidates and a smaller number of left-wing ones (especially if only the Greens) can be devastating in this election for the Coalition.
The problem is that while people who vote for the Greens are pretty reliable in preferencing Labor ahead of the Coalition – because there is proximity on the spectrum – people who vote for PHON or Strumpets or just some random independent (not Teal or Voices) tend to be more people who are protest voters – wanting to send a message to whoever is in government that they are unhappy. For the vote to count at all they will still have to number the rest of the squares.
While the policies of these parties/independents may more reflect Coalition rhetoric, there would be a much larger contingent, compared to Greens voters, who will then vote for whoever they think will be the lesser of two evils. After the campaign of the Coalition so far, I suspect that Labor will be the beneficiary of significantly more leakage from these voters than would normally be the case.
pithicus @ #109 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 11:27 am
Hence, black market for a drug. 😐
‘Entropy says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 11:29 am
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:16 am
Victoria
I haven’t checked the crime statistics for other states.
My point is that Dutton has something real to work with in Victoria.
More importantly, no Day no HOKball?
=====================================================
Crime rates are higher in Queensland than in Victoria.
….’
=================
There is some confusion about my intent.
My point was that crime rates are going up in Victoria. This is not hypothetical. It is not a proposition relative to other states. The stats are there for Victoria. My point was that Dutton was taking electoral advantage of this. (As the oppositions have already done successfully in the NT and Queensland state elections.)
TPOF,
Contra that, those RWNJ parties help get Liberals elected in the Senate. Hence why they are as everywhere as they can be at election time.
TPOF
The cost of tobacco product part pays for the increased medial cost that society pays because you use the product.
Suspending the campaign here means that neither of the leaders will attend campaign events except for the debate this evening. All other campaign activities will continue.
Peter Dutton not being a campaigner , Lib/nats federal campaign was always like it has been suspended
frednk @ #120 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 11:37 am
Yes, think of it as a down payment on the chemo.
frednk @ 11.37am
In total agreement.
Double the excise and let the bikies etc fire bomb each other chop chop shops out of existence.
Let the consumers of tobacco products pay more their overuse of valuable health services.
I notice that peeps who advocate making mary jane legal and freely available also want to make tobacco prohibitively expensive to use… cos health budget implications.
“What does suspending the campaign actually mean in practice?”
Both get to have a nice nap before the debate tonight? 🙂
And they have a day when they can probably avoid making any kind of gaffe before the televised debate.
Funny campaign this. My understanding is that generally the whole holday / long weekend thing is avoided if possible. I think the “campaign breaks” we had for Easter, and next the Anzac day weekend are probably more of a negative for the opposition ………. particularly this opposition that have not done very well when campaigning is “active” and need to build some kind of momentum going into polling day.
Saving any BIG announcments for the last week of the campaign probably of much less value this time around. Will be interesting to read the post election analysis.
TPOF @ #115 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 11:33 am
In the Senate, it is possible to effectively vote only for right wing loons and not specify a preference between the majors. Hopefully this will advantage the “left” candidates.
Can’t imagine what it will be next week or when Trump succeeds in screwing the American Bond markets completely? Which point will come at the end of his 90 Day Tariff Pause, unless he bottles it again. Even then the destabilisation that will cause may tip America into at least a Recession. Not to mention what China will do should he continue his farce against them. They being the largest holders of American Bonds.
I thoroughly recommend the Stephen Bartholomeusz article about it all if you want an easy to comprehend explanation of the full horror Trump may cause:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/regulators-warned-the-us-bond-market-was-vulnerable-trump-is-proving-them-right-20250421-p5lt3q.html
A prudent central banker would not want to hold US Treasuries. These American IOUs are of dubious value as long as Trump is in power. Defaulting on obligations is his specialty. The longer he is in office the less credible will be US-denominated debt.
Markets are selling the USD…in effect, imposing a devaluation on the US and revaluation elsewhere. This is inflationary in the US and contractionary in economies where currencies appreciate.
Instability is obviously also becoming more intense. This will have its own effects on consumption and investment…on employment and global economic output. Trump has propagated the next economic crash. If the US Federal Reserve cannot be relied on – Trump is going to make it an auxiliary office of his White House – it may be very difficult to rescue the US from serious recession.
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 11:34 am
‘Entropy says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 11:29 am
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:16 am
Victoria
I haven’t checked the crime statistics for other states.
My point is that Dutton has something real to work with in Victoria.
More importantly, no Day no HOKball?
=====================================================
Crime rates are higher in Queensland than in Victoria.
….’
=================
There is some confusion about my intent.
My point was that crime rates are going up in Victoria. This is not hypothetical. It is not a proposition relative to other states. The stats are there for Victoria. My point Dutton was taking electoral advantage of this. (As the oppositions have already done successfully in the NT and Queensland state elections.)
=========================================================
I was responding to your sentence: “I haven’t checked the crime statistics for other states.”
I thought it worth doing and as Dutton is a Queenslander. I thought a Victoria versus Queensland comparison would be most apt.
My conclusion is if Dutton believes Victorians should fear going to the shops due to the crime rate. Queenslanders should be absolutely petrified to go to shops relatively speaking.
The strategic problem for the sellers of US bonds, if they are intent on currency sabotage, is that the value of their bond holdings is sadly devalued as well.
Tobacco consumption is a complex issue, need to self medicate for various reasons as 1 example. Smokers do tend to die younger. Lessening the burden on elderly care. Replacing nicotine and it’s synergistic chemicals in tobacco with something less harmful should be part of the conversation.
Trump is not at war with Harvard. Trump is at war with Science …
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/21/trump-administration-scientific-data-climate
Science will win out in the end, of course. But many people (and not just Americans) will die in the process.
It surprises me that this site is still functional.
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today
King OMalley says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 10:34 am
And so with pre-poll opening today, let the real baking in process begin!
As Antony Green reports, last Federal election 51.2% of people voted early (and hopefully not often). Based on recent trends, this election it will be probably higher.
The ever-rising proportion of early voting presents a dilemma to pollsters and forecasters that they are yet to account for; the fact that these people have already voted at times when the estimated voting intention may be different from the time of polling the electorate up to polling day.
It is a factor of compulsory voting, where pollsters assume everyone they poll will vote (even though we know eventual turnout and deliberate informal are closer to 90% https://www.aec.gov.au/elections/federal_elections/voter-turnout.htm).
There is also a number of postal voters who have voted already.
In the US for example, voting is not compulsory – so turnout is a key variable.
pollsters categorise by
1. Adults
2. registered voters
3. Likely voters
They will ask, ‘have you voted already?’ – and those who have get added to the likely voters when deriving poll results.
Maybe here, with 2 weeks to go, pollsters could just add the question.
Well thats two extra votes labor in WA has to get!Voted labor last time not this time!
Went to Jesus polling booth Gormless Gorman local Fed member there presenting to all a vote labor card i waved the anti Christ off!
Bad news for Libs 12 ahead of me when poll opened 10 took Gormans card lib staffer attractive blonde got me and one other to take vote cards.
Bad news in upper house libs when i voted one libs were i think one off the end had to screen through top of line about 10 other candidates.
Cowan lower house -libs put Anne Aly fourth out of 7 or 8. Libs 1 ,2 christians 3 one nation, Aly 4 Trump palmer 5 independent- Socialist? 6 Greens 7
Gorman at this booth today suggests labor is more concerned about outer perth than inner!
Old guy i spoke to in Queue said he was voting libs as well said he had an issue contacted Gormans office who ignored him!
Women voters have deserted the Coalition with a dramatic fall in support since the start of the campaign, as Labor makes gains in every mainland state including Victoria where Peter Dutton was counting on anti-Labor anger to tip the scales in his favour.
An exclusive Newspoll state-by-state and demographic analysis shows the Coalition has also lost significant ground in Middle Australia, with the mortgage belt swinging back towards Labor ahead of the final fortnight of the campaign.
The 35 to 49-year-old group, which was leaning the Coalition’s way at the end of last year, is regarded as the key swing demographic that decides election outcomes. Labor now leads the Coalition 56-44 on a two-party-preferred basis among these voters.
Younger voters have also moved sharply away from the Coalition with the Liberal/Nationals now trailing the Greens by five points among 18 to 34 year olds on primary vote with Labor now commanding 64-36 two-party-preferred lead.
The Newspoll analysis covers surveys conducted since the election was called and includes answers from 5033 voters. The analysis shows that Labor has made gains in every mainland state and either improved or remained steady in all key demographics.
But the largest shift has been among female voters with a five point swing in two party preferred terms toward Labor since March 26.
This marks a dramatic decline in support for the Coalition which strategists will attribute to the deeply unpopular policy of forcing public servants back into the office which Mr Dutton was forced to dump at the beginning of the campaign.
However, cost of living is also considered a more critical issue for female voters with women viewing Labor more favourable on this measure according to the most recent Newspoll survey.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/women-voters-and-35to49-year-olds-abandon-peter-dutton-with-two-weeks-to-go-till-election-day/news-story/7c8b8615be6cb6b872427e8a8d405e6d?amp
This is bizarre: two trucks in two days.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/video-shows-man-removing-liberal-branding-from-truck-that-hit-voting-centre-20250422-p5ltd3.html
Yesterday was Noble Park,
today is Quakers Hill
Who is doing the driving?
Player One says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 11:47 am
Trump is not at war with Harvard. Trump is at war with Science …
We have local imitators, subscribers and advocates for Trump. They are our home-grown Reactionaries…cowards who lend their allegiance to foreign ideologues. They are on the ballot in this election. They should be rated last. Absolutely last. They do not deserve to sit in the Parliament at all. Dutton, Hanson and their co-mutineers. They should be run out of politics in this country.
CNN
—
Shares of Boeing fell Tuesday following a report that China has halted the delivery of all its jets to airlines in the country as part of an escalating trade war that has enveloped the world’s two biggest economies.
Boeing (BA), a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, fell in early trading after a Bloomberg report that Chinese authorities had ordered its airlines not to take any further Boeing deliveries. Shares were down 1% by midday.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-boeings-self-inflicted-damage-leaves-it-vulnerable-in-trade-war-as/
Boeing can hardly afford the blow. Almost 70 per cent of its sales of commercial aircraft were to carriers outside the U.S., and China is the largest global market for commercial airline purchases. The company projected that Chinese airlines would buy almost 9,000 planes in the next 20 years. If Boeing is shut out of the market, the spoils will go to its main global competitor, Airbus.
Trump holds all the cards, he probably holds shares in Airbus
Christian vs no religion was actually the best determinant of voting behaviour
Just received a phone poll from UComms here in Fremantle. Almost a push poll given the ‘questions’ around the teal independent. Pretty amateurish too, the sitting Labor candidate Josh Wilson was referred to as John throughout.
sorry but people who refer to a higher rate of tax as prohibition need to consult a dictionary.
what we have ATM is criminals who are trying to take advantage of taxation changes by bringing in illegal tobacco. it’s illegal cause it’s outside the excise system. the product itself is not illegal. in order to stop the illegal importing of tobacco it would be necessary to reduce the excise to virtually nothing, otherwise the crims would keep doing it.
Australia has led the world in reducing tobacco usage through excise hikes and banning advertising and product labelling. we have close to the lowest tobacco usage in the world. the reason tobacco crims can be dealt with better is because they rely upon legal outlets to sell their goods. unlike “illegal” drugs tobacco has a front door that can be kicked in
in general agreement Sprocket but for this prepoll 3 out of the 11 days for prepoll are cancelled by holidays. will that impact numbers?
Younger voters have also moved sharply away from the Coalition with the Liberal/Nationals now trailing the Greens by five points among 18 to 34 year olds on primary vote with Labor now commanding 64-36 two-party-preferred lead.
Yup. The Counter-Reactionary vote will reach 2:1 in various places. They propose nothing of relevance to the progress of this country. On the contrary, they will erode the values, systems and institutions that we rely on. The Reactionaries are ideologically-obsessed and out of contact with the electorate. They will be electorally crushed. The swing is on.
Labor federal and state governments massive high taxing says ABS today!
‘Taxation Revenue, Australia
Latest release
Data download
Statistics about taxation revenue collected by the various levels of government in Australia
Reference period
2023-24 financial year
Released
22/04/2025
Key statistics
In the year 2023-24 across all levels of government, total taxation revenue was:
$801.7 billion
$46.2 billion (6.1%) higher than 2022-23
30.0% as a percentage of GDP’
Fed Gov…
Commonwealth government 481,032 550,830 617,876 649,363 UP 5.1%
Less intergovernmental taxes 15 26 5 1 -80.0
Tax revenue net of intergovernmental taxes 481,017 550,804 617,871 649,362 5.1
pied pipersays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 11:56 am
Well thats two extra votes labor in WA has to get!Voted labor last time not this time!
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While Dutton has told many lies during this campaign. I think PP has just trumped him with the claim he voted Labor last time.
Classic Wedge Strategy:
