A major campaign milestone is reached today with the commencement of early voting. The third of the campaign’s leaders’ debates will be conducted from 7:30pm this evening by the Nine Network, to be moderated by A Current Affair host Ally Langdon with questions posed by Charles Croucher of Nine, Deb Knight of 2GB and Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review. The Roy Morgan poll that normally comes out on Monday will presumably be along later today. Note that there is a new post below this one on a state poll for New South Wales.
Other than that:
• The Courier-Mail reports a DemosAU poll collectively targeting the Greens-held Brisbane seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan has the Liberal National Party on 36% and the Greens and Labor on 29% each, compared with 35.7% for the LNP, 30.7% for the Greens and 26.2% for Labor at the 2022 election. Were the implied swings to occur uniformly across the three seats, the likely outcome would be Labor gaining Brisbane and the Greens retaining Ryan and Griffith. The poll was conducted “mid-April” from a sample of 1087. UPDATE: The poll further includes a finding of 56-44 two-party preferred between Labor and the LNP and 55-45 between the Greens and the LNP.
• The Financial Review reports a Nationals source as being “pessimistic about Cowper”, where Pat Conaghan is under pressure from teal independent Caz Heise, but believing the party to be ahead in Calare, where former Nationals member Andrew Gee seeks re-election as an independent and teal independent Kate Hook is again in the field after performing strongly in 2022. In the latter case, the source says “if only one independent had run, that independent would have won”.
• The News Corp papers report that One Nation is changing its how-to-vote cards in Hunter and Paterson to elevate the Coalition, having initially favoured right-wing minor parties and independents, and is reviewing the situation elsewhere. Hanson’s chief-of-staff, James Ashby, is quoted saying the party was “was restructuring its preferences in seats where the Trumpet of Patriots has put the chance of a conservative candidate’s success ‘at risk’” – though this is not in fact the case in Hunter or Paterson, where Palmer’s party has Labor last in keeping with its approach of directing against sitting members (in a related development, its candidate for Flinders is telling voters to put him last out of displeasure at his how-to-vote card favouring teal independent Ben Smith). The only seats I can think of where One Nation does not already have the Coalition ahead of everyone it could conceivably lose to are Kennedy, where Bob Katter is presumably safe, and Monash, where a second preference is recommended for Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent, for whom Trumpet of Patriots has made an exception by placing him third behind another independent.
Boerwar
Yes. The Hawks aren’t the same without Will Day.
He is being sorely missed.
Other half and son went to game yesterday. Despite playing badly, they could have won the game.
Will the democracy sausage at the little Jesus polling booth be circumcised?
Confessions @ #19 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 7:59 am
He can’t say he’s resigning to spend more time with his family…because he already does! 😆
– Aunty
Mavis
It is a feature of Dutton’s campaign that he catches himself in contradictions.
We already know from last time that Trump is happy to fire people who embarrass him and considers it a strength rather than demonstrating that he keeps appointing dumbasses.
Hesgeth can consider himself lucky Trump isn’t in full dictator pomp yet or the firings would probably become summary shootings a la Stalin.
pied pipersays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 8:49 am
Yep about to pop up to the infant Jesus polling booth this morning hope it’s open today due to Pope snuffing it.
Sniff Sniff!
I smell a big swing in the next week or so back to coalition.
China is dragging its economy down and dragging the Failed Albanese government economy with it due to labor being in bed with communists economically.
Liberals fuel policy excellent.
Liberals crime policy excellent
Liberals tax policy excellent
Liberals economic growth policies excellent
Liberals Aboriginal policy excellent
Liberals anti woke policies excellent.
Liberals health and education policies excellent
And lots more other lib policies great!
________________________________
Hey PP, can you give us all more DETAIL on why?
Having a glossy brochure is not a detailed policy…
Dutton’s entire campaign has been correcting what he said the previous day.
“If not China or the US, where?
Will Australia get a boost in foreign investment?”
I will be keeping an eye on Australian $ bonds.
US Cartoons:
Diogenes @ #37 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 8:47 am
What was it that John Howard used to say about ‘the great good sense of the Australian people’? 😉
The media’s get Victoria seems to be in full swing re crime rates. However, the Bureau of Statistic’ most recent data doesn’t seem to back that up.
“There were 115,905 offenders proceeded against by police in New South Wales in 2023–24, a decrease of 2% from the previous year.
Accounting for population change, the overall offender rate in New South Wales also decreased from 1,627 offenders in 2022–23 to 1,556 offenders per 100,000 persons aged 10 years and over in 2023–24.”
“There were 61,559 offenders proceeded against by police in Victoria in 2023–24, a decrease of 6% from the previous year.
Accounting for population change, the overall offender rate in Victoria decreased from 1,111 offenders in 2022–23 to 1,008 offenders per 100,000 persons aged 10 years and over in 2023–24.”
Time for the Vatican National Anthem.
The military version, not the mamby-pamby one favoured by the last several anti-popes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6H3zLLB67U
Alpha Zero @ #56 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 9:39 am
Liberals don’t do detail. It hurts the brains of the voters they’re trying to catch.
“ For its part, the Coalition “is preferencing One Nation second in a record-high 93% of lower house seats”.”
Let that sink in.
A party that needs to win back moderate seats has done this. What the?
I hope all those alleged moderates who vote liberal because they always have are taking note.
The subjugation of the liberal party to QLD white nationalists is complete. It is no coincidence that the leader of the liberals and the leader of the Nationals are members of the same party.
Boerwar
I do not have a feel for the situation in Victoria re crime. I note your and Victoria’s examples and also Sohar’s data. Anecdotal evidence is a bad way to judge such issues.
Either way I think it is a stretch to go from a series of crimes to people being afraid to go to the shops.
Here in Adelaide talking up a crime wave sounds quite silly.
Thanks, Alpha Zero for the US cartoons. This one really lit a fire in my mind due to the way it portrayed Trump’s hair which suggested to me an Australian colloquialism that perfectly describes him methinks:
He’s a mug lair. 😀
“ For its part, the Coalition “is preferencing One Nation second in a record-high 93% of lower house seats”.”
So, they have done a preference deal with PHON. Hopefully will show up in the campaigning in W.A.
Has anyone seen their actual printed HTV cards yet? Do they have party affiliations on them??
Mabwm @ #64 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 9:47 am
And the leader of PHON is a Queenslander, also where her party is hweadquarted.
Crime is an issue in Vic Boer, but I do think people recognise it’s a state issue (it’s already baked into the low vote for Allan, and to the extent people just blame Labor, baked into the reduced Labor vote in Vic already).
But Dutton’s “people are scared to go to the shops” shit doesn’t resonate because it isn’t true, and even more because he pulled this shit before about Victoria and sunk his ratings here ever since.
Dutton says: “Today’s not the day for big politicking.”
Interesting how he doesn’t say ‘campaigning’ but instead ‘politicking’. This absolutely gives the game away about what he believes elections are all about.
Interesting that Dutton is on the wombat trail in Orange today.
Must be worried big time about Calare staying Independent.
And the debate on ch9 tonight is still on…
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Dutton have paused campaigning in the wake of Pope Francis’ death but will still go head to head in Tuesday night’s leaders’ debate.
Both leaders’ campaign teams have confirmed the cancellation of scheduled events as the news sends shockwaves around the world.
The Prime Minister begun the day in Melbourne, attending mass at St Patrick’s Cathedral to pay his respects.
He was captured looking sombre as he attended the regular 7am service.
Mr Dutton is in Orange where he was scheduled to campaign alongside Nationals Leader David Littleproud after a more toned-down Easter weekend.
The Opposition Leader is scheduled to attend a church service in Sydney to pay his respects.
In an interview on Tuesday morning, he flagged the day would be mostly reserved for reflection although confirmed the Channel 9 leaders’ debate would still go ahead.
“I don’t think there’s any need for over-the-top politics today. I think we can respectfully put our positions,” Mr Dutton told the Today Show.
“Polling obviously opens today. There’s a leadership leaders debate tonight. I understand the Prime Minister is happy to proceed with that.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-cancel-election-campaign-events-after-pope-francis-death-leaders-debate-to-resume/news-story/8d06f565ca313f592833435e9ca84ac7#
Socrates
Fair enough.
Sohar’s data refers to offenders being proceeded against. That could reflect, for example, policing effort or changes in prosecution policy.
The following data refers to offences.
https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statistics/latest-victorian-crime-data/recorded-offences-2
‘sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:56 am
Interesting that Dutton is on the wombat trail in Orange today.
Must be worried big time about Calare staying Independent.
…’
================
I saw a discussion somewhere that in Calare the Teal might cancel the sitting Independent, gifting the seat to the dark side.
Who will be the next leader? I think it will be the guy in the Red Hat…
“Electioneering is suspended as a mark of respect following the death of the Pope”.
When will they think of the athiests?
I just came back from pre-poll booth for my electorate.
No crowds.
There are 8 candidates contesting this electorate.
Liberal and One Nation candidates were handing their own HTV cards.
Labor candidate has volunteer to give HTV card. No one else is there for other candidates.
Liberals won this electorate since 1996. Voters even voted for notorious Craig Kelly 2 times from this electorate.
I collected the HTV cards from all 3 parties but I did not vote.
Liberal candidate is standing a few feet away from other 2 people i.e.
Labor volunteer and One Nation candidate were standing almost shoulder to shoulder. (BTW all the people handing out HTV cards are women)
The candidates are ALP, Liberals, One Nation, Greens, Family first, Libertarian, Palmer party Citizens party
Liberals put ALP 4th and ALP put Liberals 3rd on HTV cards.
One Nation put Liberals 6th, Labor 7th and Greens 8th
Labor put Greens 2nd and Liberals put Greens 8th.
So it appears LNP made a decision regarding HTV to put Greens last on all of their HTV cards.
Last time a community Independent contested this seat and got 14% PV. But this time no independent is contesting this electorate.
When will they think of the athiests?
===========================
And Pastafarians?
“Electioneering is suspended as a mark of respect following the death of the Pope”.
I’ll believe that when I stop seeing mobile Liberal billboard trucks roaming the streets.
Incidentally the trucks also give a clear picture of what Dutton thinks of climate change. Why he thinks that will help him with their roaming two of the best educated electorates in SA escapes me.
Hard Being Green says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 8:09 am
Goll the best possible outcome is minority government imo
As Adam has been saying, do everything possible to keep Dutton away from the Lodge and push Labor to do better
Labor don’t deserve majority although the LNP campaign has been such a disaster they might get it anyway. I hope not
The Greens, being unprepared to defend the peoples, laws and lands of this country do not deserve to sit in the Parliament at all. They also play tag with the Reactionaries 24/7. They run interference for Dutton and Hanson as a matter of tactical pleasure. They deserve to lose everything they have ever held.
And so with pre-poll opening today, let the real baking in process begin!
As Antony Green reports, last Federal election 51.2% of people voted early (and hopefully not often). Based on recent trends, this election it will be probably higher.
The ever-rising proportion of early voting presents a dilemma to pollsters and forecasters that they are yet to account for; the fact that these people have already voted at times when the estimated voting intention may be different from the time of polling the electorate up to polling day.
If one major party is behind (2PP) during the pre-poll period, then the proportion of 2PP votes they have to win on polling day becomes greater because the available supply votes has decreased. It’s a bit like one day cricket, when you are behind on the run rate, the required run rate starts to increase more steeply as the remaining overs reduce.
I have spoken to some pollsters and forecasters about this issue over the years, and have yet to receive a satisfactory response from them on it. The answers I’ve received can be summarised with words to the effect of, “we don’t know how people voted”, “there are biases that we can’t account for” (really with 50%+ voting early? and even if there is, you can calculate any bias from previous results), “it’s too hard to incorporate” and “it doesn’t really matter anyway”.
This is why, like last time, I will be running regular reports on pre-poll votes, estimated 2PP votes cast (based on the AEF 2PP Nowcast) and the required LNP 2PP % for the remainder of the campaign for majority and minority government, with probabilities for these.
I’m also completing my own election simulator to estimate the required LNP 2PP value for majority and minority government, based on historical swing variations across states and seat types. But more on that later once I finish the model in the next couple of days.
The candidates are ALP, Liberals, One Nation, Greens, Family first, Libertarian, Palmer party Citizens party
Labor will do the heavy lifting unassisted. The spectrum is dominated by the One Nation Front Party, aka Dutton’s Reactionaries, crypto-Reactionaries and their substitutes, trainees and allies and the parasitic Greens. It sounds like you are in Hughes. I wish you well. Labor might not get there but they will give it a shot.
The real problem for voters is buried in the last paragraph.
“Moreover, by voting early, people may be missing out on the sausage sizzle, the craft stands, and the bake sales that many communities hold on voting day.”
I’m going to be interstate on election day and thus I am postal voting this time, and it saddens me immeasurably to miss the puns at my local school’s cake stand.
I guess from now the polling companies can switch to asking people who they voted for rather than who they will vote for
I think early voting numbers could be down a bit this year given plenty will be taking this week off and the public holiday on Friday
That could be good for the sale of democracy sausages
Update on the Noah Balta case that was discussed over the weekend regarding comments from former Richmond FC coach Hardwick in relation to a comment made by the Victorian Premier.
Balta has been sentenced with a three month curfew meaning he cannot leave his house between 2200 and 0600 and he must abstain from alcohol during this period.
This means he cannot play any night or away games for Richmond FC.
Apparently he paid the victim a settlement of $45,000
A pretty lightweight outcome for what was a brutal attack on an innocent person. As one PB noted Balta has form and was known as a thug and a bully back in the day.
Not good enough.
Richmond FC have been HAMMERED over the weekend in regards to the decision to play him. Best thing now is to drop him to the VFL for the rest of the year.
Dutton has to get his trucks out – to use all that fuel he keeps pumping into them.
It probably defines the sequence of his wombat trail: “Who’s got an empty truck for me to fill next?”
A thief stole DHS Secretary Kristi Noem’s bag this weekend, including her driver’s license, medication, apartment keys, passport, DHS access badge, makeup bag, blank checks, and about $3,000 in cash, per @JoshCampbellcnn.
https://cnn.com/2025/04/21/politics/homeland-security-kristi-noem-purse-stolen/index.html?cid=ios_app
“I just came back from pre-poll booth for my electorate.”
Ven, did the Liberal HTV’s have party affiliations as well as names for each candidate??
Socrates says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 10:28 am
“Electioneering is suspended as a mark of respect following the death of the Pope.
I’ll believe that when I stop seeing mobile Liberal billboard trucks roaming the streets.
Incidentally the trucks also give a clear picture of what Dutton thinks of climate change. Why he thinks that will help him with their roaming two of the best educated electorates in SA escapes me.”
…and a fuel truck.
”
Hack, woke, Partisansays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 10:35 am
The candidates are ALP, Liberals, One Nation, Greens, Family first, Libertarian, Palmer party Citizens party
Labor will do the heavy lifting unassisted. The spectrum is dominated by the One Nation Front Party, aka Dutton’s Reactionaries, crypto-Reactionaries and their substitutes, trainees and allies and the parasitic Greens. It sounds like you are in Hughes. I wish you well. Labor might not get there but they will give it a shot.
”
HWP
Out of 8 candidates 6 candidates are from right wing reactionaries (Libs and ON) and RWNJ.
Although the Liberals get around 40% PV here, this time RW votes will be split in 6 ways.
Progressive votes will be split into 2.
Luigi Smith
I think the message trucks / fuel pumping stunt illustrates Dutton’s inability to read the room and change tactics during the campaign.
Presumably it was designed as a message about cost of living at a time of high fuel prices. But since Trump blew up the US economy fuel prices have eased off. So it is yesterday’s issue. But Spud can’t see that.
As a millionaire Dutton would have no idea of the real cost of living and where the pressure is.
He’s not a shopper.
Would there be many undecided voters, voting early though?
WB: • The Courier-Mail reports a DemosAU poll collectively targeting the Greens-held Brisbane seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan has the Liberal National Party on 36% and the Greens and Labor on 29% each, compared with 35.7% for the LNP, 30.7% for the Greens and 26.2% for Labor at the 2022 election. Were the implied swings to occur uniformly across the three seats, the likely outcome would be Labor gaining Brisbane and the Greens retaining Ryan and Griffith. The poll was conducted “mid-April” from a sample of 1087.
Me: That is interesting to put it mildly.
So if ALP can defend their 5 seats centred around Brisbane City and add 1 more, that could compensate to an extent any loses elsewhere.
Nadia, what is your opinion?
People in Melbourne are too terrified to fill up their cars……..in case Dutton’s at their local servo campaigning.
King OMalley says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 10:34 am
And so with pre-poll opening today, let the real baking in process begin!
______________________________________________
Thanks for that.
Large-scale pre-polling has really only become a thing since Covid, so I imagine the amount of meaningful research on its implications would be fairly limited.
I wonder to what extent this pre-polling, like postal voting, would naturally have a different make-up because of the number of people who pre-poll because they have well and truly made up their minds – like myself, for example, and like almost all of the bludgers here.
This could have implications if the undecideds are leaving it as late as possible (i.e. polling day) and are still there to be convinced which way they should go. So these last 12 days of politicking/electioneering would still have an impact comparable to past years when the vast majority of people did not vote until polling day.
”
sprocket_says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 7:01 am
Trump is going to attend the funeral of the Pope.
Cue saturation coverage crowding out our humble antipodean election..
”
Wow!
Regarding the tobacco wars, I just checked the price for 50 grams of rolling tobacco. It’s around $150.00 au.
I think the cost of “chop chop” as it’s called is around $25.00 for 50 grams.
There’s a huge incentive for a dodgy tobacco market.
Big seizures make good headlines , but won’t make any difference whatsoever.
As long as I can remember, there was always “chop chop” available, and occasionally a seller would get busted, and another one would pop up a week later. But it’s getting scary now. A shop in Ararat of all places was firebombed.
Maybe the govt should at least allow availavle a less harmful nicotine delevery system? Oh wait, they kinda banned that too.
Like the war on drugs, this seems like it belongs in the too hard basket.
”
Marjorie Taylor Greene Says ‘Evil Being Defeated’ After Pope Francis Death: https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-says-evil-being-defeated-after-pope-francis-death-2062157
”
MTG would probably call Jesus evil or woke if he born now.
Ven @ #90 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 10:54 am
Labor will lose 7 seats in Victoria. 😐
Who would Jesus vote for?