A major campaign milestone is reached today with the commencement of early voting. The third of the campaign’s leaders’ debates will be conducted from 7:30pm this evening by the Nine Network, to be moderated by A Current Affair host Ally Langdon with questions posed by Charles Croucher of Nine, Deb Knight of 2GB and Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review. The Roy Morgan poll that normally comes out on Monday will presumably be along later today. Note that there is a new post below this one on a state poll for New South Wales.
Other than that:
• The Courier-Mail reports a DemosAU poll collectively targeting the Greens-held Brisbane seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan has the Liberal National Party on 36% and the Greens and Labor on 29% each, compared with 35.7% for the LNP, 30.7% for the Greens and 26.2% for Labor at the 2022 election. Were the implied swings to occur uniformly across the three seats, the likely outcome would be Labor gaining Brisbane and the Greens retaining Ryan and Griffith. The poll was conducted “mid-April” from a sample of 1087. UPDATE: The poll further includes a finding of 56-44 two-party preferred between Labor and the LNP and 55-45 between the Greens and the LNP.
• The Financial Review reports a Nationals source as being “pessimistic about Cowper”, where Pat Conaghan is under pressure from teal independent Caz Heise, but believing the party to be ahead in Calare, where former Nationals member Andrew Gee seeks re-election as an independent and teal independent Kate Hook is again in the field after performing strongly in 2022. In the latter case, the source says “if only one independent had run, that independent would have won”.
• The News Corp papers report that One Nation is changing its how-to-vote cards in Hunter and Paterson to elevate the Coalition, having initially favoured right-wing minor parties and independents, and is reviewing the situation elsewhere. Hanson’s chief-of-staff, James Ashby, is quoted saying the party was “was restructuring its preferences in seats where the Trumpet of Patriots has put the chance of a conservative candidate’s success ‘at risk’” – though this is not in fact the case in Hunter or Paterson, where Palmer’s party has Labor last in keeping with its approach of directing against sitting members (in a related development, its candidate for Flinders is telling voters to put him last out of displeasure at his how-to-vote card favouring teal independent Ben Smith). The only seats I can think of where One Nation does not already have the Coalition ahead of everyone it could conceivably lose to are Kennedy, where Bob Katter is presumably safe, and Monash, where a second preference is recommended for Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent, for whom Trumpet of Patriots has made an exception by placing him third behind another independent.
Rocket Rocket says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 8:43 pm
TPOF
It will to SkyNews and The Australian, still smarting after their hand picked audience awarded the first debate to Albanese
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Yes. It’s incredible how dumb most of that audience was. 😉
Albo = PM
Dutton = Queensland cop
Are all the ToP ppl, white anglo-saxon types?
It is pretty funny that it goes from the unedited, unfiltered real politician talking, full of waffle and ums and arrrs to an advertisement where the same politician is polished with perfect lighting and perfect angles and perfect speech. What a strange world
Sliding doors – double shot
The fundamental message of the Trumpets is that patriots are white.
JenAuthor @ #600 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 8:46 pm
Mostly pretty much, ask them anything and they’ll start a gish-gallop of “Glory be to Presidentrump” and nothing can stop them.
Thanks for the commentary folks.
Ch 7 debate will be Sunday 27th at 8pm. That’s only five days away. It seems this multiple debate thing has become a bit ridiculous. How many people will be interested in watching a fourth debate, especially when they’ve heard Albo and Dutton say the same thing several times before?
Coorey wants to give it to Dutton
Thats 75 minutes of my life I can never get back! Albo comes across much more likeable but I won’t be watching the next one
Deb Knight wants to give it to Dutton
The ToP ads are just damned irritating nonsense.
Thanks to those on PB taking one for the team on what seems to have been a pretty ordinary event.
I suspect of the 27 million people who live in this fair land of ours, nearly all of them would have found something more useful to do and cheerful to participate in other than the just completed “debate”.
With early voting, and perhaps with more than half the electorate having voted by polling day, the media – in general – will be the losers.
They love the “let’s you and him fight” and “it is just too close call and will go down to the wire ….” blah, blah.
Having voted myself today, quite frankly I intend to essentially tune out until the election is over and done with….I get the sense so will a lot of other people.
As someone on ABC Radio said this morning, that Channel 9 panel of journalists would be tilted in Dutton’s direction – 2GB lady, Phil Coorey.
But as others have said, as 500,000 people have already voted, do we need any more debates? Who is left to persuade either way? It’s more an excuse for Channels 9 and 7 to promote their brands and give their political anchors a platform on which to perform.
Bahahaha, are nine really going to have their panel declare the winner???
That is worse then the ol room of undecided (allegedly) voters
citizensays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 8:49 pm
Thanks for the commentary folks.
Ch 7 debate will be Sunday 27th at 8pm. That’s only five days away. It seems this multiple debate thing has become a bit ridiculous. How many people will be interested in watching a fourth debate, especially when they’ve heard Albo and Dutton say the same thing several times before
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It is especially given they really have very little to say. Seems to be no point to these debates. I think Labor will be reelected being seen as the less risky placeholder but with a shallow mandate and support.
So Ch9 will “call the debate” based on the 3 journos who asked the questions and didn’t call out answers that weren’t.
Meaningless.
No winner, just losers including us. They need to find a way to include the 33% of voters not voting for the majors
Or at least bring back the worm
Dunno why Coorey is there — he just mumbles
Bludgeoned Westie,
I’ll get back to you on Anzac Day (per your post yesterday). I’ve read your post and also Dr.D’s opinion.
M.I. is close to opening the predictions for the next election, probably mid next week.
11 days to go!
Who will want to watch on Sunday if there is Trumpet of Patriot ads in the middle of it?
Panel calls it for Albo.
Phil coorey says albo didn’t use the 600 billion number for dutts nuclear… saying it shows albo somehow knows it isn’t true, but Albo did use it though… *shakes head*
Blue suit will award debate win to Albo. The other two will choose Dutton.
33% of voters not voting for the majors
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It’ll probably end up being more than that, the average voter is getting less and less enthused with the major parties the longer this campaign goes on.
This panel is deluded.
I don’t think political tragics should be suggesting that the campaign or debates be closed down. Ordinary people are entitled to have the full time allocated.
The discussion is cringeworthy.
Which channel is MAFs on?
Twitter poll puts it 80-20 to Albo.
In all the debates Albo has looked much more confident answering than he did in interviews before Christmas. Same again here. He is dispatching the nonsense questions very confidently. I think the body language and confident tone of voice is almost as important as the content of the answers.
Dr Doolittle @ #432 Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025 – 7:19 pm
Yeah I had Labor at 71 two months ago, I’ve switched to 76 based on the change in polling.
Was there a knockout blow either way?…..Did one of them make a an embarrassing gaffe?….No?….then it was a largely pointless exercise. I think most people have made up their minds….4-5 % are uncommitted at this stage….those uncommitted will maybe break 50-50….if its 60-40 one way or the other that will make very little difference in most seats. I think the result is largely baked in at this stage…..ALP will win between 70 to 79 seats….so Government in some form or other
This debate was brought to you by our sponsors ,the liberal party,the Labor party and the strumpets.
Effin hell — wouldn’t bother waiting to see the verdict but I’m interested to hear the ‘juicy rationalisations’ they’ll use to give it to Dutton — or will they assess tht Dutton is so far behind they’d better be on the leading side?
For those who were smart enough to switch off the post debate discussion panel, they have just gone to a second ad break after previously saying “we will have a winner declared after this”. Maybe they have a secret focus group they are relying on… or more accurately they are trying to work out how to sell awarding it to dutton in a way that doesn’t show the obvious bias to him
Bait and switch from Ch9
What would actually be interesting is if the other 1/3rd of Australians were represented in the debates. Maybe the leaders of the Greens and the Nationals and a representative of the Teals.
After three debates these two men have gotten their talking points out.
It’s an interesting election at an interesting time but you wouldn’t know it from these media presentations of just two parties.
Spot on Luigi – they’re trying desperately to make it sound like it was exciting
ArchaeWA says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:04 pm
For those who were smart enough to switch off the post debate discussion panel, they have just gone to a second ad break after previously saying “we will have a winner declared after this”. Maybe they have a secret focus group they are relying on… or more accurately they are trying to work out how to sell awarding it to dutton in a way that doesn’t show the obvious bias to him
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Occam’s razor. They are stringing it out to maximise the income from advertisers.
2GB lady for Dutton
Coorey for Dutton- scratch that – Coorey for Albo
Blue suit for Dutton
ALP will win between 70 to 79 seats
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Probably around that mark and think there will be a handful more crossbenchers with the seat difference between ALP and LNP not changing much.
sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:07 pm
2GB lady for Dutton
Coorey for Dutton
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But wait! There’s a twist!
LukeM
Definitely get the Nationals leader in – then they could constantly contradict Dutton!
The Albonatorsays:
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 at 9:03 pm
Was there a knockout blow either way?…..Did one of them make a an embarrassing gaffe?….No?….then it was a largely pointless exercise. I think most people have made up their minds….4-5 % are uncommitted at this stage….those uncommitted will maybe break 50-50…
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The informal vote is around 5% at most elections. That’s not counting the donkey vote too. Those 4-5% undecided plus a few more. Will make up the informal and the donkey vote.
*shakes head* well I expected them to do that but is still hysterical to see
Crowcher on the point he made about secret cuts probably should have given it to Albo. Anyway this debate doesn’t look like it’ll change much.
So um what do you think’s gonna be the rest of the election because I don’t see a way for Peter to come back especially if those news polls of women voters going swinging against him oh god I said in January there’d be no major party will be happy now be probably labour will be happy
Who keeps saying they miss the worm
The worm was plenty evident tonight.
Big winner tonight.Strumpets with full on put you to sleep telly ad commercials funding channel nine for the next 6 months.
Albonator
“Was there a knockout blow either way?…..Did one of them make a an embarrassing gaffe?….No?….then it was a largely pointless exercise. I think most people have made up their minds….”
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I agree but that is why I think my comment about Albo’s body language and tone of voice matters. He looked and sounded like a winner, and I think audiences judge on that.