The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 34% (up one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Leadership ratings are a mixed bag for Anthony Albanese: his approval rating is down two to 43% with disapproval up three to 52%, but his lead on preferred prime minister widens from 49-38 to 52-36. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 35% and up one on disapproval to 57%. The poll also finds the Coalition favoured 34-29 on growing the economy and 35-23 on defence, but Labor favoured 31-28 on the cost of living, 42-22 on health, 33-26 on lowering taxes, 29-24 on helping first home buyers and 39-32 on “dealing with uncertainty caused by Donald Trump”. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1263.
Also, Nine Newspapers has further results from Resolve Strategic’s poll of last week as to what respondents’ “biggest hesitations or concerns” are in voting for either major party. Labor’s are “a lack of action on the cost of living” and economic management, while the Coalition’s is “Peter Dutton’s personality as leader”.
Further recent posts you might care to take note of: one analysing the how-to-vote cards and their likely impact, one summarising recent reports of internal polling and a guest post from Adrian Beaumont on next week’s Canadian election.
Last time the claim was restaurants now its shops.
“The Coalition has seized on community concerns about crime to launch an extraordinary claim about the rising threat of violence, suggesting that many Victorians were scared to go to the shops because of the risk to their safety.”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/victorians-afraid-to-go-to-the-shops-because-of-rising-crime-dutton-20250421-p5lt6u.html
If you live in a marginal Victorian electorate, the real reason you might be scared to go to the shops is that you could meet Dutton there.
Entropy,
I don’t know about the Melbourne shops but I was at the shops today and it was full of happy people. No one seemed scared.
C@tmommasays:
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 9:32 pm
Entropy,
I don’t know about the Melbourne shops but I was at the shops today and it was full of happy people. No one seemed scared.
=====================================================
Dutton has given up on Robertson, so it’s pretty safe to go there now. It is likely a Dutton-free zone.
Quote: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself”
They genuinely didn’t learn from the last time Dutton tried to make out that Melbourne is some kind of skid row no-go zone. The reaction is going to be swift and it is going to be to tell the Queenslander to stick it up his fucking jumper.
Doing it after people have just been out and about having happy family time at Easter is particularly dumb.
Tobacco shops being firebombed doesn’t scare anybody except people in the illegal tobacco trade, who can go fuck themselves anyway.
I live and work in many areas around NSW.
I have never heard anyone say they are afraid to go to the shops because of rising crime.
Desperation from Dutton indeed!
I hope you all realise we are watching his last days as a member of parliament.
He knows that, either he loses his seat or resigns after an inglorious defeat.
Those are the only two options I’m seeing.
Bookmark if you want Dutton/Trump crew, frame it even.
Dutton is the only thing standing between us and a wave of criminals and rock spiders.
And to think this guy wanted to replace Malcolm Turnbull because he thought he would be a better PM.
People are afraid to go to the shops because of the folk handing out Blue Bags there in droves…
We have Juvenal to thank for “rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno”. A rare bird on earth, like a black swan. He was describing the perfect wife.
Thinking about it for the past few hours, I think Francis was probably about as good as it got with popes. He was relatively progressive, he preached for generosity, which is much better than what came from his predecessor, Benedict XVI.
While I’m not a Catholic myself, I did learn about what Catholicism meant in school and how important the Pope was. Unfortunately the Pope at the time was John Paul II and he was barely functional, to the point it was actually cruel to keep him in power.
For the time being, I hope the next Pope continues his progressive legacy, and that things don’t regress into hypocritical US-style Evangelism.
Why is it that the Coalition wants to make us afraid or angry or both. Don’t they have any policies? Don’t they have a good story to tell?
(Spoiler alert: No and No).
So this the what another relaunch of his campaign also all the polls that have been released have crime been mentioned as one of the main topics because if I remember was cost of living and health holy s*** I think he’s trying to save his seats
I recall the 2002 Vic state election where the Liberals claimed that crime had gone through the roof in the first few years of the Bracks government. The ads aired non stop and convinced no one. They lost 19 seats.
Dutton is now embracing the full fear-preaching Trump course. The only thing we need to fear is fearmongers who divide and conquer by making the world a far nastier place.
Boinzosays:
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 4:26 pm
…………………….. I’m enjoying watching the slo mo train wreck that is Dutts. Remember he’s an old Qld Policeman from the Jo Bjelke era – verballing people was standard operating procedure to cops like Dutts. He can’t help it, it always was a substitute for not having done the actual investigative work (policy dev).
=====================================================
Welcome back Boinzo,
Keep your helmut on, things tend to get a bit bombastic around here.
Just one minor correction re Dutton; he is not of the Bjelke-Petersen era.
Bjelke was finished by 87. Dutton joined the police in 1990.
He had an unimpressive career working in the Drug Squad and in the Sex Offenders Squad (also some time with the National Crime Authority). By 1990 it was apparent that he would not advance beyond Detective Senior Constable level and he resigned to look for other opportunities.
Sadly, it seems he hasn’t found his niche yet.
A Liberal pamphlet in our letterbox proclaims Safer communities – We will get tough on violent crime by non-citizens, boost our defence and border security, and improve online safety for children.
Note “crime by non-citizens”. That is Dutton to a T. Dutton is a Trump mini-me trying to link immigration and crime in voters’ minds.
According to Dutton, soon it will not be safe to go anywhere because of African, Asian, non-white
gangs. His aim is a frightened population who will believe a “strong man” like himself. Just like Trump.
Buyer’s remorse sets in in Ireland: (poll April 17)
Sinn Féin 26% (up 7 since December election)
Fianna Fáil 22(-)
Fine Gael 16 (-5)
Social Democrats 7 (+2)
Labour 4 (-1)
Aontú 1 (-3)
Greens 3 (-)
People before Profits 3 (-)
Independent 17 (+1)
Maybe Dutton is gearing up for a transfer to State politics after the election. I wonder if Dutton has a secret fantasy about being Police Minister in a pre Fitzgerald era Queensland Govt with his one man war on crime rhetoric.
Early voting starts tomorrow…..Almost everyone I know is planning to vote early ….as early as tomorrow many have mentioned. All of them with minds unchanged from the 2 weeks of ads and ineffective campaigning. So every hour that passes from tomorrow onward should be diminishing Dud Dutts chances
Like I’m seriously wondering is Peter just don’t know what he’s doing like like I don’t know like ah but do you think it will change anything honestly I don’t like he’s so unpopular
I live in Melbourne. Been to the shops all long weekend. Happy places and people. Just today, me and a friend were commenting on how mixed and happy the crowds were in the northern suburbs. Dutton is a f*ckwit. Jumped the shark and all of Sea World with his stupid, incorrect, and bargain basement fear mongering.
citizensays:
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 9:51 pm
A Liberal pamphlet in our letterbox proclaims Safer communities – We will get tough on violent crime by non-citizens, boost our defence and border security, and improve online safety for children.
Note “crime by non-citizens”. That is Dutton to a T. Dutton is a Trump mini-me trying to link immigration and crime in voters’ minds.
According to Dutton, soon it will not be safe to go anywhere because of African, Asian, non-white
gangs. His aim is a frightened population who will believe a “strong man” like himself. Just like Trump.
=====================================================
How soon before we hear “they eat the pets”?
Been Theresays:
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 8:59 pm
The Toorak Toffsays:
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 8:42 pm
I thought Dutton had Presbyterian roots.
,,,,,,,,,,,,
I had many roots, some Presbyterian, I wasn’t fussy about those sorts of matters when I was younger.
……………….
I doubt any were Catholic, they never told anyone about what roots they had.
citizen
By far the majority of violent crime is committed by citizens. And apparently Dutton and the Coalition aren’t planning to get tough on those people at all!!
PS – Luigi Smith
Thanks for telling us about Juvenal creating the Black Swan image. Though in Australia we probably should talk about a ‘White Swan event’ if we mean something rare!
Is there a Haitian community in Melbourne? Will Dutton say they’re eating the cats and dogs? Or will he just transpose the line onto the South Sudanese? :\
Entropy says:
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 9:56 pm
citizensays:
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 9:51 pm
A Liberal pamphlet in our letterbox proclaims Safer communities – We will get tough on violent crime by non-citizens, boost our defence and border security, and improve online safety for children.
Note “crime by non-citizens”. That is Dutton to a T. Dutton is a Trump mini-me trying to link immigration and crime in voters’ minds.
According to Dutton, soon it will not be safe to go anywhere because of African, Asian, non-white
gangs. His aim is a frightened population who will believe a “strong man” like himself. Just like Trump.
=====================================================
How soon before we hear “they eat the pets”?
_________________________
Cmon Dutton, just say the words Deporting non-citizens for the full Trump effect
Kirsdarke says:
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 9:42 pm
Thinking about it for the past few hours, I think Francis was probably about as good as it got with popes. He was relatively progressive, he preached for generosity, which is much better than what came from his predecessor, Benedict XVI. ….
***********
Although I’d agree with that assessment it is worth pointing out, as another demonstration of how organised religion, politics and life in general is rarely black and white, that Francis was Benedict’s chosen successor and that Benedict well and truly put his thumb on the scale to ensure that outcome. The numbers were counted and the arrangements made prior to the abdication.
@tmommasays:
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 9:17 pm
It’s back! Peter Dutton has just said that people are afraid to go to the shops because of rising crime.
…………………………………………………………………………………..
A lot of people think that Coles and Woollies are crooks.
The fourth Premier of Tasmania was of Haitian descent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Smith_(Australian_politician)
Some old geezer in Europe dies so they don’t show the only program on TV that I never miss live.
Can someone tell me when Media Watch will be on.
Dutton’s just making it up as he goes along:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/victorians-afraid-to-go-to-the-shops-because-of-rising-crime-dutton-20250421-p5lt6u.html
OC
Perhaps Ireland will now join the political upheavals in the rest of the democratic world.
I mentioned at the time I was in Ireland when the election was called last November, staying with very politically aware friends in Ranelagh, not far from Trinity College, Dublin, where one of my friends works.
I got a good feel for the various parties standing, and was surprised that in the end some of the “new” parties (Social Democrats for example) did so poorly compared to the two civil war parties.
I wonder if Sinn Fein are still suffering from being associated with the IRA? My friends and colleagues of ages between around 40 and 55 (well this is the age bracket of my younger friends) loathe the IRA and anything vaguely associated with it.
But, there is a new generation now, coming up on their heels, and perhaps the social democratic left as espoused by Sinn Fein may appeal to them more than new parties?
It always amazes me with Dutton – he was the Minister responsible for Commonwealth Policing and Immigration for 7+ years (and I did work in Home Affairs) and it was one of the worst run Departments and then he keeps on the issue with criminal elements – when he could have stopped them. The Richardson Report provides some really interesting reading … “the Department seem to lack accountability, with nobody found responsible for any of the failings.”
He seems to only want to say issues with criminal elements when he suits them, yet did nothing to stop them. It is also interesting that the National Anti Corruption Commission has found nothing against former Liberal Ministers. One person I know went to them, and unless he provided his allegations in writing, they would not meet with him. This person was in fear for his life.
Haiti are the world champion in AFL
(Although if your team includes a white woman of ample proportions wearing torn jeans, you would have to wonder about the standard).
https://www.consulathaitiaustralie.org/post/haiti-champion-of-the-afi-world-cup
The one actual Haitian in the team was interviewed elsewhere and said he had never heard of AFL but he went to the Melbourne consulate about a visa matter and the next thing he knew he was the captain of the national team.
At the moment I’m minding three cats and a large brown dog. I’m afraid to go to the shops in case someone breaks in while I’m away and eats them…
“ It’s pretty shitty to start rewriting history for your own point scoring when the body is barely cold.”
Geez, what a fucking hypocrite.
For months now the Dutton plan has been:
1) Give up on teal seats.
2) Win outer metro seats in Melbourne, because we can’t win the teal seats, which according to PetA (not Peter…) Credlin, are “rightfully ours”.
3) Pretend there is data to support this notion until the media pick it up.
4) Win the election.
It seems he has now decided to alienate Melbourne and Victorians.
I am reminded of the Underpants gnomes.
Our liberal candidate can almost string a sentence together.
Kirsdarke
+1 for me.
I was brought up Catholic, but had an easy slide into atheism when I was about 16, when I realised that I did not believe any of it.
But, having once been a believer, I understand how important religion is to around 80% of the World’s population.
So, if we “need” religion, as humans, I want to make sure they are by and large good ones: believing in social justice, and providing the best outcomes for humanity in this world.
Dutton truly is a moron. He’s once again insulted the people of Melbourne – the very people he hopes might elect some Liberal candidates.
D&M
Interesting point
During the campaign, Taoiseach Simon Harris, in particular , would make the occasional remark about the hypocrisy of SF blaming the Garda for letting the racist riot the previous December get out of hand when they were past murderers of Garda. The riot and SF’s response were the point where their vote began to tank – it is hard to be both populist and also act like adults.
I don’t think it had much effect. I agree, no one under the age of 50 has much memory of the troubles and anyone with a knowledge of Irish history knows that none of the civil war parties has a blameless foundation story.
The question remains whether Ireland will ever have a leftist government, which at the moment must be SF led, or whether the same government, under different names, that has been in power for 103 years will continue.
Guys this is in Victoria actually doing better for labour at the moment so I don’t know what Peter’s doing but someone on Reddit said that he would have had an easier time getting at least minority government if he focus on the independence seats he basically made it harder for himself unless something massive happens to change also don’t give me the about the poles been wrong in the 2024 election it was actually really close also they got a lot of Governor races right
Back in the mid part of last century a lot of Catholics would not trumpet (oh no, did I just use that word) their religion, because some ads for jobs in newspapers would say “Catholics need not apply”.
Could this have affected some older Catholic folk when filling in their census form.
C@tmommasays:
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 9:32 pm
Entropy,
I don’t know about the Melbourne shops but I was at the shops today and it was full of happy people. No one seemed scared.
________
@cat I live in the epicentre of Duttons worst nightmare, Southbank, Melbourne. I took the outrageously dangerous walk home from Marvel last night. Every step a sense of fear. Crossing over from “Jeff’s shed” to the river I was paralysed and then it happened. A bunch of people wearing Western Bulldogs scarves singing and enjoying their win. As a sad Sainter it left a bitter taste. Melbourne after a game of footy is a grim place when your team has lost…
On a serious note. Was a typical night walking around Melbourne. If you’re out at 1:30am you need to incorporate more caution than at 1:30pm. That is no different to what it’s ever been.
Dutton again playing up to the 3AW, 2GB audience..the acolytes of those shows are falling off the perch at a rapid rate these days one would think.
Well done Dutton cutting through in Victoria.Vote winner!
Weak labor premier.
Q: By far the majority of violent crime is committed..
Against women in domestic situations- and the highest risk of death.
Of course he has said nothing about that during the campaign…..
Speaking of suburban crime:
https://old.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/1k4b7lm/liberal_candidate_for_greenway_rattan_virk/
“Liberal candidate for Greenway Rattan Virk volunteers just crashed one of their branded trucks into a prepoll centre. As soon as it happened, they started ripping off the signage till the police came; it’s estimated that over 100k worth of damage was caused.”
Now that’s one way to stop the votes.
C@tmommasays:
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 7:09 pm
What a day top re-watch ‘Apocalypse now’.
I came straight out of that into news that the Pope had died.
Phew!
………………………………………………………………………………………………….
No doubt we will all remember what we were doing when we heard that yet
another Pope has died.
I’ll add that to my list of Dianna, JFK, John Lennon and Tiny Tim.
pied pipersays:
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 10:55 pm
Well done Dutton cutting through in Victoria.Vote winner!
Weak labor premier.
=====================================================
Every MAGA voter in Victoria can disregard the pale imitations now, as only Dutton and the LNP are truly MAGA.
Well, before Pope Frankie died today – probably not in suspicious circumstances, despite his last meeting being with J.D. Vance.
Earlier, I was thinking of answering a question from a poster (sorry, forgotten who) about where Bob Carr and Paul Keating are in this election.
Well, I cannot answer that particular question, but I can tell you where Nick Greiner was today: At a recital, at St Patrick’s Cathedral in Parramatta, which I also attended: A concert by the Western Sydney Philharmonic Orchestra https://www.westphil.org.au
But I digress. Apparently while I was watching the chamber music, Peter Dutton was telling us all that it was too dangerous to go out in the mean streets of the burbs.
After the recital was finished, we went to Wigram Street in Harris Park for a fantastic dosa. There were people everywhere on the street , with street stalls selling momo and other wonderful street food, and it never even occurred to me that anyone was frightened.
The corflutes on Wigram street were fascinating. Each business (restaurant, child care centre, beautician) had coflutes for the three main candidates, Liberal, Labor and Independent. I commented to my DIL, who is part Indian, and who has also worked as a Liberal party staffer, that I was amazed at how politically engaged the businesses were.
She suggested that the businesses were not really that politically engaged, but instead were enthusiasts for the electoral process and were therefore happy to host all parties corflutes on their fences. I love it!
But the Federal Electoral Division of Parramatta, which is currently held by Andrew Charlton for Labor, is quite marginal. If Peter Dutton thinks that scaring people about crime, in this division, because “they are not game to go out on the streets to shop or eat” is going to work, he is dreaming.
Weirdly, given that most of the people and families I saw on the street were likely of sub-continent origin, I suspect that they would worry that Peter Dutton was implying that they were the reason that “people” were not game to go and eat out.
“Q: By far the majority of violent crime is committed..
Against women in domestic situations- and the highest risk of death.
Of course he has said nothing about that during the campaign…..”
Men are more often victims of violent crime than women. And men are more likely to be victims of homicide.
Women are definitely more likely to be victims of domestic violence.
Males are predominantly the perps for all of these.
Dutton treats Indians as the “good migrants”, while the Africans, Chinese & Middle Easterners are the “bad migrants”. Same way that the Vietnamese were the “bad migrants” in the 90’s but the Italians and Greeks were the “good migrants”, going back to the first fleet where the Irish were the bad migrants while the English were the good colonists.