The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 34% (up one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Leadership ratings are a mixed bag for Anthony Albanese: his approval rating is down two to 43% with disapproval up three to 52%, but his lead on preferred prime minister widens from 49-38 to 52-36. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 35% and up one on disapproval to 57%. The poll also finds the Coalition favoured 34-29 on growing the economy and 35-23 on defence, but Labor favoured 31-28 on the cost of living, 42-22 on health, 33-26 on lowering taxes, 29-24 on helping first home buyers and 39-32 on “dealing with uncertainty caused by Donald Trump”. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1263.
Also, Nine Newspapers has further results from Resolve Strategic’s poll of last week as to what respondents’ “biggest hesitations or concerns” are in voting for either major party. Labor’s are “a lack of action on the cost of living” and economic management, while the Coalition’s is “Peter Dutton’s personality as leader”.
Further recent posts you might care to take note of: one analysing the how-to-vote cards and their likely impact, one summarising recent reports of internal polling and a guest post from Adrian Beaumont on next week’s Canadian election.
very nice
Wow!
Slow and steady for Labor. Majority government looking more likely the closer we get.
No f’ing way it’s 52-48 on those primaries.
Steady as she goes. Labor should try to kick with the wind in the 4th Quarter.
So why are Liberal HTV …. NOT showing party, and just name?? Are they ashamed of their preference allocations?? 🙁
jt1983 @ #4 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:19 pm
I was a bit querulous myself. Maybe our esteemed William Bowe or Dr Bonham can explain it to us?
“yet again you are wrong in your depiction of the Horseshoe Theory. It is not about the centre of the horseshoe. What it is about is how close each end of a horseshoe is to the other and how this translates to movements in politics recently.
You can make some cockamamie allusion to the centre of a horseshoe all you want but that’s not the point.”
There are many points to the horseshoe theory. Yours, which is the one that no serious person agrees with. And the fact that centrists are closer to each other policy-wise than extremists are.
Extremists are closer together psychologically than centrists, but that is not what the horseshoe theory is about. The biggest advocates of horseshoe theory these days are centrists who refuse to acknowledge the degree to which they share policy with the enemy.
(From previous thread)
Liberal Party Senate guidance, check any Liberal Candidate, e.g. https://nswliberal.org.au/brendan-small/how-to-vote
In Summary
1 Liberal
2, 3 Right-wing Christians
4. One Nation
5. Libertarian, odds and sods
6. Jacqui Lambi people
The twatt that’s one of Trump chief economic advisers..
Kevin Allen Hassett….
He coauthored Dow 36,000, published in 1999, which argued that the stock market was about to have a massive swing upward and would reach 36,000 by 2004.
Shortly thereafter, the dot-com bubble burst, causing a massive decline in stock market prices. The Dow did not reach 36,000 until late 2021.
Hassett has worked at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.
He was John McCain’s chief economic adviser in the 2000 presidential primaries, as well as economic adviser to the 2004 campaign of George W. Bush and 2008 campaign of McCain. He was an economic adviser on Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign.
Just incase anyone thinks Trump is an adoration.. he’s MAINSTREAM REPUBLICAN
I calculate Coalition 2pp at approx 35 + 7(0.7) + 12(0.2) + 12(0.5)
= 39.9 + 2.4 + 6
= 48.3%
Allowing for the Shy Tory effect (2019 saw a 3 point error) Coalition are probably in front!
52/48 looks reasonable. Perhaps 53/47 depending on rounding.
jt1983says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 7:19 pm
No f’ing way it’s 52-48 on those primaries.
===============================================
Labor’s primary plus one and one nation’s minus one. With the rest steady, yet TPP remains unchanged. It certainly would require a fair change in preference flow to achieve this. I also have some trouble believing that.
I’m hoping Labor gets a boost with undecideds going back to the incumbent government as the election gets closer. I’m not complaining about the poll, but 53-47 would be nicer.
Seems strange that the Coalition are polling 35% when Dutton is preferred PM by only 36%.
Hmm-hmm. 25 in 3025 maybe.
The horseshoe theory is about the extremist ends of the horseshoe eventually joining on common ground. Not the centre of the horseshoe joining with….the centre.
Jesus wept.
My horsehoe theory is that it is important to have the ends facing up otherwise all your luck drains out.
A quick back of the envelope gives 52. 34 + 10 (grn) +2 (on) + 6 (ind) = 52
Horseshoe theory is valid to the extent that extremists resemble each other more than they do moderates for their side. One bomb-throwing terrorist is the same as any other, differing only what they are extreme about.
Labor 2PP 34+10+2+6 =52
Confessions says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 7:27 pm
The horseshoe theory is about the extremist ends of the horseshoe eventually joining on common ground. Not the centre of the horseshoe joining with….the centre.
Jesus wept.
_________________
That would be the pretzel theory
Where did everyone go?
Yo!
GoodOleBoyJimBob? Integrity? CutnPaste? 25Babet25?
Going on the 2022 federal election results
Labor 54%
lib/nats 46%
imacca @ #6 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:20 pm
I think that’s usual practice for all parties. Don’t give anyone who might want to vote for the other side any help at all in working out who’s who.
Can anyone post the Dutts-with-dog photo from the Oz? It makes him look so human.
Steve777 says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 7:27 pm
Horseshoe theory is valid to the extent that extremists resemble each other more than they do moderates for their side. One bomb-throwing terrorist is the same as any other, differing only what they are extreme about.
———
That can be true but only explains that their behaviour can be similar. Advocating for social justice and climate action is very different to peddling xenophobia and authoritarian nationalism.
With the primary numbers showing up in polling at present it’s really hard to estimate how many non-major seats we end up with. Too many complications trying to figure where non-majors will end up in the 2PP calculations.
We can only guess.
Labor winning on lower taxes probably wasn’t on your bingo card. But if you add the words “for the ordinary punter” it makes sense. And maybe the LNP have finally been rumbled by the public on this score.
So there is no Easter resurrection for Dutton. Another solid result for Labor and Albo.
Like others I’m wondering how the Labor PV can go up one with Greens steady, ON down, and yet the 2PP not go up one for Labor?
Simon Benson had to go hunting to find the good bits for Dutton. Considering:
“ Labor favoured 31-28 on the cost of living, 42-22 on health, 33-26 on lowering taxes, 29-24 on helping first home buyers and 39-32 on “dealing with uncertainty caused by Donald Trump”.
What is the point of being “ahead on defense” if you can’t deal with Trump?
Labor’s HTVs have got the party names on them.
“I think that’s usual practice for all parties. Don’t give anyone who might want to vote for the other side any help at all in working out who’s who.”
Think i disagree ajm ……. The ALP ones i have seen have name AND party for each candidate.
“Another solid result for Labor and Albo.”
Yup. 🙂
From today’s Easter family gathering we briefly talked about politics, given I was telling them where the Early Voting poll place will be held at this time.
One thing we agreed with was that the Trumpet of Patriots party was annoying with their constant stupid ads and billboards when there isn’t even a local candidate for Ballarat.
There was some thoughtful silence after I mentioned that Labor had in fact delivered 2 surpluses during the rough post-Covid years before the subject was changed. It was very different from the atmosphere during Christmas.
I’ll bet Boy Wonder Wyatt Roy isn’t smirking so much now when all he did in parliament from 2010-2016 was make fun of Labor not delivering a single surplus since he was born.
Thanks everyone who contributed an explanation for 52. 🙂
”So why are Liberal HTV …. NOT showing party, and just name?? Are they ashamed of their preference allocations??”
Maybe. They seem to be putting right-wing candidates between themselves and anyone on the card with a chance of wining.
On these numbers it is still 50/50 whether it is Labor majority or minority government. But Peter Dutton is not going to be PM.
C@t personally on those primaries it’s could just as easy be 53/47 depending on rounding. Can’t agree with Scott about 54/46 though.
Yup – thanks for the calculations.
It seems like it’s been game over for Dutton for a little while now and nothing in this poll contradicts that belief.
Labor’s pitch on Medicare seems to be going down well people not particularly impressed with either major on housing.
I’ll be curious how the Liberals do their election day signage and branding if they are trying to avoid association with both the traditional navy blue Liberal Party branding and their leader Dutton as well?? Will they pretend to be independents?
The margin between the primary votes is a big indicator , that Labor is likely increasing their majority
2022 federal election result
federal lib/nats combined primary vote 35.7%
Labor primary vote 32.6%
Federal lib/nats ahead 3.1%
Labor majority with 77 seats
If the margin is federal lib/nats ahead by a 1% margin , and the swing is towards Labor by 1.4%, and swing against lib /nats by 0.7%
Labor increase their seat count into the 80’s
Dr Fumbles McStupid @ #19 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:29 pm
And we’re seeing a lot of pretzels of late in their attempts to justify their contortions.
ScromoII @ #11 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:24 pm
Did you snort milk through your nose when you typed that?
“Maybe. They seem to be putting right-wing candidates between themselves and anyone on the card with a chance of wining.”
Which makes some sense actually. But, i still find it strange, particularly in W.A. that they are putting PHON so high on the list?? RWNJobs that no one has really heard about it one thing, but EVERYBODY knows PHON and what nasty nut-baggers they are.
Despite no movement on the TPP, the trend seems to be continuing with the increased ALP primary and the widening of the gap in preferred leader. This is a good poll for Labor. Dutton needs to turn this around immediately because barring a grand polling error or a black swan event it’s looking like an ALP majority is more likely than not. Would be interested to see the seat totals that anyone with models has based on these numbers.
JIMBOB still here, about to retire for the night. No more polls tonight l presume. Hopefully at least 25 in 25. Labor losing Wills, MacNamara and Richmond apparently and Cooper in play. Fremantle and Franklin getting closer by the day. Fascinating election. My prediction two weeks out is for Majority Labor government, 25 on the crossbench and 45 Coalition. That’s Labor with 80. Still two weeks out so plenty of time for my predictions to change. Vote for democracy and transparency, vote independent.
Luigi Smith @ #26 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:32 pm
Not really -the dog looks scared.
Scott agree that based on current polling Labor has a reasonable chance of increasing their majority. However I doubt it would be a linear outcome.
My list from the previous thread, although we will need the major primary vote to fall back to 2/3rds or less to get there + the Greens in the teens imo
We currently have a cross bench of 18 after removing Kylea Tink
I expect 16 of them to be returned losing Broadbent and Goodenough
So to get to 25 we need 9 more.
I’ll go with 3 Greens – MacNamara, Richmond and Wills
I think we land community independents / Teals in Bradfield, Cowper, Fremantle, Forrest, Monash and Wannon
Outside chances in Bean, Dickson and Moore
Did I miss any?
Edit and an upset in Calwell
#25in25
p.s. you might notice there are no addition right wingers in there
Whatever happened to Wyatt Roy? He was going to be our youngest PM eva!