With early voting to begin on Tuesday, details of how-to-vote cards are starting to accumulate. So far as the Senate is concerned, the ABC is making life easy by gathering them in one place, while the eternally patient among you can view lower house how-to-vote cards for Labor candidates and Liberal candidates one by one on individual candidate pages. I tend to consider the subject not worth much of the news space devoted to it, because only major party voters follow them in substantial numbers, and in most cases they make the final count and their preferences are thus not distributed — though the number of exceptions is of course much higher than it used to be.
The Victorian Electoral Commission provided a rare insight into the matter when it made available full ballot paper data for seven seats at the 2022 state election, which is normally available only for upper house counts and in New South Wales, where its applicability is limited by optional preferential voting. The rate at which Labor votes exactly followed the how-to-vote card was consistently around 30% (helpfully, there were large numbers of candidates in these seats, so few are likely to arrived upon the requisite order by happenstance). The rate of adherence among Liberal voters varied widely according to the amount of effort the party was putting into a given seat — 57.0% in Brighton, where it was fighting off a teal independent, and 53.9% in Hawthorn, where it was successfully challenging a Labor incumbent, but only 29.4% in Preston, where the fight was between Labor and the Greens.
As for minor parties, whether the Greens actively preference Labor (as they are doing in every seat at this election) or offer no recommendation (which is as far as they ever go in repudiating Labor) makes about five points’ worth of difference to the percentage received by Labor, which is typically upwards of 80%. The impact is likely even less for smaller parties, which lack the volunteer base needed to disseminate how-to-vote cards on a large scale at polling places. As such, it would not pay to put too much weight on the decision by Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots to direct preferences against most sitting members. It was, indeed, news to me that his United Australia Party had done much the same in 2022, a fact related by Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group in a report in the News Corp papers yesterday. Out of 108 seats where the relevant data exists, I calculate that Labor got 41.7% of UAP preferences in seats where they had sitting members in 2022 and 35.5% where the Coalition did – the opposite of what would have been expected if their voters had been following the how-to-vote card in non-trivial numbers.
The same approach was adopted by One Nation during its early heyday at the Western Australian state election in 2001, in this case involving a party with genuine mass support and not simply the artefact of a multi-million dollar advertising campaign. This is sometimes said to have been a key factor in Labor’s unexpectedly clear-cut win at the election over the two-term Coalition government of Richard Court. To test this, I have just blown the dust of my print copy of the statistical returns from that elections and identified 24 seats where One Nation candidates were the last excluded in the preference count and their votes distributed between Labor and the Coalition. The distinction in this case was at least in the right direction, but nonetheless very modest — Labor averaged 53.2% of the preference transfers in Coalition-held seats and 49.7% in Labor-held seats. I assumed there would be a relationship between Labor’s vote share in a given seat and the strength of its preference flow — the likeliest explanation for the counter-intuitive finding just noted for the United Australia Party — but there was in fact little evidence of this.
So with all that in mind, the following points worth noting have emerged from news reportage, in lieu of my own lack of motivation to investigate the matter too deeply myself:
• Macnamara is the only seat where Labor is not directing preferences, which it is doing there at the initiative of incumbent Josh Burns in recognition of the local Jewish community’s concerns about the Greens. It is entirely possible that Burns will run third, in which case Labor preferences will come into play in the race between the Liberals and the Greens. Had it played out that way in 2022, the Greens would have won handily on a flood of Labor preferences, just as Burns easily defeated the Liberals after receiving fully 90.25% of the preferences from the third-placed Greens. Macnamara partly corresponds with the state seat of Brighton, where the behaviour of Labor preferences in 2022 was noted above. The 10,126 Labor votes in the seat included 3231 who followed the card, 5468 who favoured the Greens over the Liberals independently, and 1427 who had the Liberals ahead of the Greens. If those who followed the how-to-vote card had split in the same proportion as those who did, the flow of Labor preferences to the Greens would have fallen from 85.9% to 79.3%. Making a reasonable assumption that the Labor primary vote in the seat will be about 30%, this suggests Labor’s open ticket could contribute about 2% to a swing of upwards of 10% that the Liberals would need if it came down to them and the Greens.
• Next door in Goldstein, Liberal candidate Tim Wilson has teal incumbent Zoe Wilson second last ahead of the Greens, leaving her behind One Nation as well as Labor. The Age notes that Wilson said in 2019 that he had “a longstanding view that we should put One Nation and their despicable acolytes last”. While this may be of interest on an optical level, Wilson’s preferences are of little electoral consequence as he seems assured of making the final count.
• Conversely, the Liberals in Western Australia have put teal independent Kate Hulett ahead of Labor in third place in Fremantle (though here too they favour One Nation, who are second), a fairly remarkable turnaround on the March state election when they had her last but for the Greens.
• Labor are favouring Liberal over the Nationals in the three-cornered contest in the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel. However, an apparent improvement in Labor’s fortunes suggests the issue here is likely to be whether Nationals candidate Mia Davies or Liberal candidate Matt Moran makes it to the final count against Labor’s Trish Cook.
• The Liberals may have scotched the chances of independent Peter George by putting him behind Labor in Franklin. George is a former ABC journalist running with support from Climate 200 and in opposition to salmon farming, none of which would have endeared him to the Liberals. With 19-year-old Greens candidate Owen Fitzgerald having conceded he would be unable to sit in parliament due to a dual citizenship, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported the party was expected to throw its support behind George, who had already been endorsed by former party leader Bob Brown.
• Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent has interestingly opted to place teal independent Deb Leonard all-but-last in Monash. Leonard was presumably counting on getting ahead of him and benefiting from the strong preference flows that typically apply between independents.
• Paul Karp of the Financial Review reports Ziad Basyouny and Ahmed Ouf, who are respectively challenging Tony Burke in Watson and Jason Clare in Blaxland with support from The Muslim Vote, are directing preferences to Labor ahead of Liberal “after failing to strike a preference deal with the opposition”. The Liberal how-to-vote cards have them both dead last, which does not surprise, but will nonetheless make life difficult for them. A review article in the Sun-Herald today says Labor believes it could face swings in the seats of “more than 6%”, with Watson of greater concern.
Greens get 25 seats. ROFL. They’ll get seven. Independents will get 16 to 20. Add Katter and Sharkie. That’s 25 plus. The younger generations are voting. Boomer and the silent generation(wish Boomers like them) are dying off with their rusted on views. Methinks 35% plus for non same same uni party. At least 25 in 25.
“I have a lot of singular, personal memories of the Whitlam government.”
And in the White House was one President Nixon!
Whitlam recorded in his autobiography that Carter later assured him that the US would never interfere again.
It can’t be that, otherwise you’d have purportedly progressive proponents agitating for parties like the Trumpet of Sockpuppets, PHON, religious fundies etc. There aren’t enough progressively aligned parties running in sufficient seats to get anywhere near 25 HoR seats.
They have more chance of Greens winning 25 HoR seats, and as others have said, that is not going to happen this election.
Hence I just ignore these mindless chants. Everyone is entitled to their own hopes and dreams, no matter how irrational or unlikely they are to materialise in the real world.
Griff
“but they willing accept all comers. Palmer, Hanson etc.”
If that is the way people express their votes then that’s democracy.
“But don’t mention horseshoes”.
So very disingenuous of you to tack this on.
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/horseshoe-theory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_theory
“Several political scientists, psychologists, and sociologists have criticized the horseshoe theory.
Proponents point to a number of perceived similarities between extremes and allege that both tend to support authoritarianism or totalitarianism; political scientists do not appear to support this notion, and instances of peer-reviewed research on the subject are scarce. Existing studies and comprehensive reviews often find only limited support and only under certain conditions; they generally contradict the theory’s central premises”
Vote Coalition. Get One Nation.
”Why is Israel third most important ally to Australia? In what way Israel helped Australia?”
And in what way could Israel help us in the future, even if they wanted to?
Seriously, they’ve asked for that?
My god. Perhaps they should focus on winning their 25 HoR seats and then worry about incoming government briefings FFS.
“But don’t mention horseshoes”
Under the horseshoe theory of course the centre-left and centre-right are even closer together than the radical left and right. Which is about the only part of horseshoe theory that anyone takes seriously.
yabba,
Have you seen the Liberal HTV in Dobell? Where’s PHON?
25 in 25 refers to hopes for the numbers on the crossbench not just Greens.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:47 pm
Griff
“but they willing accept all comers. Palmer, Hanson etc.”
If that is the way people express their votes then that’s democracy.
“But don’t mention horseshoes”.
So very disingenuous of you to tack this on.
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/horseshoe-theory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_theory
“Several political scientists, psychologists, and sociologists have criticized the horseshoe theory.
Proponents point to a number of perceived similarities between extremes and allege that both tend to support authoritarianism or totalitarianism; political scientists do not appear to support this notion, and instances of peer-reviewed research on the subject are scarce. Existing studies and comprehensive reviews often find only limited support and only under certain conditions; they generally contradict the theory’s central premises”
____________
That is the best refutation you have? When you are willingly advocating for Hanson and Palmer candidates to be elected? 🙂
The right wingers in American will vote Republicans, live in trailer parks on food stamps eating 1 meal a day with broken teeth, no jobs & drinking dirty water and be happy about it as long as an illegal immigrant might not be getting a free bowl of rice a day as well.
Confessions @ #408 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 6:49 pm
Getting a little ahead of themselves. As per standard operating procedure for The Greens.
Pegasus @ #391 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 6:34 pm
Two things.
Firstly, we live in a country with compulsory voting with a preferential system. So yes you are correct. Of course the corollary is that Greens only win their seats because of preferences. But that doesn’t play into your fantasy world where 12% national vote gives you the ability to dominate the political discourse, kind of like a green Apartheid in some ways really.
Secondly, as an ex-white water rafting guide I can tell you that in fact you can tread water in a raging river. Having done so on the Franklin River, the one a Labor Prime Minister saved.
The right wingers in American will vote Republicans, live in trailer parks on food stamps eating 1 meal a day with broken teeth, no jobs & drinking dirty water and be happy about it as long as an illegal immigrant might not be getting a free bowl of rice a day as well.
———————————————————————–
sad but sooo true
Confessions @ #408 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 6:49 pm
Perhaps the government should ask the relevant department to estimate how many houses would have been built had the greens had not have blocked the legislation.
Donald Dutton @ #409 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 6:49 pm
Straw man.
It’s hardly the basis upon which the theory exists as an explanation for how times have seen the transfer of those on the Extreme Left go over to the Extreme Right.
LOL – no, there is no Green IGB.
Red and Blue – that’s it.
A party cannot “request” preparation of an IGB.
Newspoll soon? Coalition at 33? Labor vote stable? Come on, predictions? Greens at 14!!!
Confessions says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:46 pm
“The desire for 25 seats in 25 to be neither Labor not Coalition.”
It can’t be that, otherwise you’d have purportedly progressive proponents agitating for parties like the Trumpet of Sockpuppets, PHON, religious fundies etc. There aren’t enough progressively aligned parties running in sufficient seats to get anywhere near 25 HoR seats.
They have more chance of Greens winning 25 HoR seats, and as others have said, that is not going to happen this election.
Hence I just ignore these mindless chants. Everyone is entitled to their own hopes and dreams, no matter how irrational or unlikely they are to materialise in the real world.
__________
It can’t be. Yet it is so.
I’ve seen a lot of “With early voting to begin on Tuesday” stuff over the past week, but what most commentators fail to realise is that many tens thousands of us who registered for a postal vote have already voted. Due to the remarkable efficiency of the AEC, I received my postal ballots lat Tuesday 15 April, and I’m pleased to say that I have already cast my (deciding) vote in the new seat of Rocky and Bullwinkle, and I can now just watch on as they all piss their advertising money up against my wall of smug indifference.
Republicans have a minimum 48% of the vote locked up permanently.
In America, the typical GOP voter will vote zealously for the GOP even as they are dying of cancer and having to pay for palliative care and living in a hovel with no running water if it means one more woman is denied an abortion and one more non-cis-hetero person is denied whatever they want.
Ultimately, God rewards right-wing people for it is they who have a pass to heaven. Remember that this Easter.
The meme that The Greens are of the extreme left is laughable.
Bandying it about serves the purpose of the duopoly who are running scared its hold on power for power’s sake is slipping from its grasp.
The status quo is due for a shake-up. It’s about time.
jt1983, I think Bandt has demanded it.
The Insiders panel this morning referred to core and non-core demands. Not sure which this is.
”
pithicussays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 5:51 pm
FFS is lars and lars von trier from years ago the same person, or is lars newer.
Sorry, but he/she keeps appearing in the convo.
”
Same same. 🙂
“Vote Coalition. Get One Nation.”
Hmmm, when the Libs ran preferencing One Nation in the 2017 W.A. state election that actually worked out VERY badly for them. Anything changed to mean that it wont go as badly again??
Actually, bit of sneakiness going on??
When i went through the link to HTV in Williams post, on the ALP HTV it has candidate names AND parties. On the Liberal ones, only candidate surname and initial. You wouldn’t necessarily know where the Libs are directing preferences from the HTV.
I am so disappointed that Lars degenerated to JIMBOB. 🙂
jt1983 says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:53 pm
LOL – no, there is no Green IGB.
Red and Blue – that’s it.
A party cannot “request” preparation of an IGB.
_______________
Was on PB earlier today, Brandt was banging on about the need to prepare a Green Book given the greens will have BoP at the election.
Thankyou Ven.
There is no God. There is no Heaven.
But that’s just me saying that.
JIMBOBsays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:54 pm
Newspoll soon? Coalition at 33? Labor vote stable? Come on, predictions? Greens at 14!!!
========================================================
My prediction for Newspoll is that a good result for Labor will mean any current Lars sock puppet will sulk off.
A slogan of 25 in 2025, meaning to aim for a cross bench in HOR of at least 25, is an encouragement for voters for smaller left parties and teals to also preference rightwing minor parties ahead of Labor.
Having a slogan supporting any and all non-major party people to win HoR seats is a potential disaster – could lead to a LNP/One Nation/Trumpets etc coalition government. Not likely at this stage but that is a potential outcome of such a stupid slogan.
imacca @ #424 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 6:57 pm
That’s exactly my thinking. Surely the remaining semi-moderate Liberal voter would still believe it anathema to join the Liberal Party at the hip with PHON.
@Dr – really? That’s adorable.
It’s still up the Govt of the day – I’m sure some Red and Blues will have content on managing a minority and impacts on policy – but that’s all that’s happening lol
Griff
“When you are willingly advocating for Hanson and Palmer candidates to be elected?”
Your wilful misrepresentations and disingenuousness is disappointing but now not unexpected.
Good day.
C@tmomma, yes, even I believe there is no Heaven. When we die we all rot with our kind, good or evil.
But plenty of people believe there is and will not be persuaded otherwise. And that is a good thing because the GOP and the Coalition as a result are in power for perpetuity. Amen.
Pegasus @ #423 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 6:56 pm
You just have to convince the 88% of Australians who dont ever vote for the Greens to just see the light. Why of why don’t they see the light? Do they whisper about armed insurrection at Greens branch meetings? Well having been a Greens party member and having been inside those branches, I can inform you that yes they do, the entire ‘direct action’ protest movent is predicated on violence against property. Or don’t you mean those particular Greens?
Spence @ #430 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:00 pm
It inanely presupposes an enlightened bunch of Progressives, with the reality ending up being something else again more likely than not.
Actually, bit of sneakiness going on??
When i went through the link to HTV in Williams post, on the ALP HTV it has candidate names AND parties. On the Liberal ones, only candidate surname and initial. You wouldn’t necessarily know where the Libs are directing preferences from the HTV.
Who let him back in?
We currently have a cross bench of 18 after removing Kylea Tink
I expect 16 of them to be returned losing Broadbent and Goodenough
So to get to 25 we need 9 more.
I’ll go with 3 Greens – MacNamara, Richmond and Wills
I think we land community independents / Teals in Bradfield, Cowper, Fremantle, Forrest, Monash and Wannon
Outside chances in Bean, Dickson and Moore
Did I miss any?
Edit and an upset in Calwell
#25in25
“Straw man.
It’s hardly the basis upon which the theory exists as an explanation for how times have seen the transfer of those on the Extreme Left go over to the Extreme Right.”
It’s only a straw man because you don’t like the fact that it posits that the centre-left and centre-right are even closer than the radical left and right. Centrist Labor people have said on this blog this very day that they will preference the centre-right ahead of the left. Policy convergence among centrist parties has far more evidence to sustain it than the horseshoe theory of extremism. Witness the centrist coalitions common in Europe. A former senior Labor Minister has already advocated such a postion. Open ticket in Mcnamara. Labor preferences electing a Liberal in Fannie Bay over the Green. It’s a thing.
ScromoII @ #434 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:02 pm
Pretty sad that they’ve got to rely on fairy tales and sky fairies for support. Instead of the power of their policies and ideology.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 7:01 pm
Griff
“When you are willingly advocating for Hanson and Palmer candidates to be elected?”
Your wilful misrepresentations and disingenuousness is disappointing but now not unexpected.
Good day.
________
How is your slogan “25in25” not advocating indiscriminately for any non-Labor, non-Coalition candidates getting up? Explain it to us.
Donald Dutton @ #439 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:03 pm
It’s not the Horseshoe Theory though. 😐
My prediction is 53-47 to Labor for Newspoll. 33% for both Labor and the Coalition 13% Greens, 8% One Nation, 13% others. Last one done before pre-polling starts (it kind of already started this week with postals already being sent out) so will be interesting.
Worse than that Cat _ it suggests electing ON in HoR is preferred to electing Labor or Liberal.
Requires immediate disassociation from Greens, AJP, Cannabis, Fusion and any left or centrist group.
Newspoll out, anyone have the numbers?
Griff @ #441 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:04 pm
It’s magical Unicorn thinking that believes only Greens, or at worst Teals and Wilkie, will be elected to sit on the X Bench. Obviously, Pegasus is refusing to countenance how Preferential Voting may work against The Greens as well as for them.
C@tmomma @ #413 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 6:50 pm
Stevenson PHON is 2, Libertarian – Chalik 3, Animal Justice – Murphy 4, Legalise Cannabis – Claydon 5, Emma 6, Trumpfart 7, Greens last.