With early voting to begin on Tuesday, details of how-to-vote cards are starting to accumulate. So far as the Senate is concerned, the ABC is making life easy by gathering them in one place, while the eternally patient among you can view lower house how-to-vote cards for Labor candidates and Liberal candidates one by one on individual candidate pages. I tend to consider the subject not worth much of the news space devoted to it, because only major party voters follow them in substantial numbers, and in most cases they make the final count and their preferences are thus not distributed — though the number of exceptions is of course much higher than it used to be.
The Victorian Electoral Commission provided a rare insight into the matter when it made available full ballot paper data for seven seats at the 2022 state election, which is normally available only for upper house counts and in New South Wales, where its applicability is limited by optional preferential voting. The rate at which Labor votes exactly followed the how-to-vote card was consistently around 30% (helpfully, there were large numbers of candidates in these seats, so few are likely to arrived upon the requisite order by happenstance). The rate of adherence among Liberal voters varied widely according to the amount of effort the party was putting into a given seat — 57.0% in Brighton, where it was fighting off a teal independent, and 53.9% in Hawthorn, where it was successfully challenging a Labor incumbent, but only 29.4% in Preston, where the fight was between Labor and the Greens.
As for minor parties, whether the Greens actively preference Labor (as they are doing in every seat at this election) or offer no recommendation (which is as far as they ever go in repudiating Labor) makes about five points’ worth of difference to the percentage received by Labor, which is typically upwards of 80%. The impact is likely even less for smaller parties, which lack the volunteer base needed to disseminate how-to-vote cards on a large scale at polling places. As such, it would not pay to put too much weight on the decision by Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots to direct preferences against most sitting members. It was, indeed, news to me that his United Australia Party had done much the same in 2022, a fact related by Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group in a report in the News Corp papers yesterday. Out of 108 seats where the relevant data exists, I calculate that Labor got 41.7% of UAP preferences in seats where they had sitting members in 2022 and 35.5% where the Coalition did – the opposite of what would have been expected if their voters had been following the how-to-vote card in non-trivial numbers.
The same approach was adopted by One Nation during its early heyday at the Western Australian state election in 2001, in this case involving a party with genuine mass support and not simply the artefact of a multi-million dollar advertising campaign. This is sometimes said to have been a key factor in Labor’s unexpectedly clear-cut win at the election over the two-term Coalition government of Richard Court. To test this, I have just blown the dust of my print copy of the statistical returns from that elections and identified 24 seats where One Nation candidates were the last excluded in the preference count and their votes distributed between Labor and the Coalition. The distinction in this case was at least in the right direction, but nonetheless very modest — Labor averaged 53.2% of the preference transfers in Coalition-held seats and 49.7% in Labor-held seats. I assumed there would be a relationship between Labor’s vote share in a given seat and the strength of its preference flow — the likeliest explanation for the counter-intuitive finding just noted for the United Australia Party — but there was in fact little evidence of this.
So with all that in mind, the following points worth noting have emerged from news reportage, in lieu of my own lack of motivation to investigate the matter too deeply myself:
• Macnamara is the only seat where Labor is not directing preferences, which it is doing there at the initiative of incumbent Josh Burns in recognition of the local Jewish community’s concerns about the Greens. It is entirely possible that Burns will run third, in which case Labor preferences will come into play in the race between the Liberals and the Greens. Had it played out that way in 2022, the Greens would have won handily on a flood of Labor preferences, just as Burns easily defeated the Liberals after receiving fully 90.25% of the preferences from the third-placed Greens. Macnamara partly corresponds with the state seat of Brighton, where the behaviour of Labor preferences in 2022 was noted above. The 10,126 Labor votes in the seat included 3231 who followed the card, 5468 who favoured the Greens over the Liberals independently, and 1427 who had the Liberals ahead of the Greens. If those who followed the how-to-vote card had split in the same proportion as those who did, the flow of Labor preferences to the Greens would have fallen from 85.9% to 79.3%. Making a reasonable assumption that the Labor primary vote in the seat will be about 30%, this suggests Labor’s open ticket could contribute about 2% to a swing of upwards of 10% that the Liberals would need if it came down to them and the Greens.
• Next door in Goldstein, Liberal candidate Tim Wilson has teal incumbent Zoe Wilson second last ahead of the Greens, leaving her behind One Nation as well as Labor. The Age notes that Wilson said in 2019 that he had “a longstanding view that we should put One Nation and their despicable acolytes last”. While this may be of interest on an optical level, Wilson’s preferences are of little electoral consequence as he seems assured of making the final count.
• Conversely, the Liberals in Western Australia have put teal independent Kate Hulett ahead of Labor in third place in Fremantle (though here too they favour One Nation, who are second), a fairly remarkable turnaround on the March state election when they had her last but for the Greens.
• Labor are favouring Liberal over the Nationals in the three-cornered contest in the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel. However, an apparent improvement in Labor’s fortunes suggests the issue here is likely to be whether Nationals candidate Mia Davies or Liberal candidate Matt Moran makes it to the final count against Labor’s Trish Cook.
• The Liberals may have scotched the chances of independent Peter George by putting him behind Labor in Franklin. George is a former ABC journalist running with support from Climate 200 and in opposition to salmon farming, none of which would have endeared him to the Liberals. With 19-year-old Greens candidate Owen Fitzgerald having conceded he would be unable to sit in parliament due to a dual citizenship, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported the party was expected to throw its support behind George, who had already been endorsed by former party leader Bob Brown.
• Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent has interestingly opted to place teal independent Deb Leonard all-but-last in Monash. Leonard was presumably counting on getting ahead of him and benefiting from the strong preference flows that typically apply between independents.
• Paul Karp of the Financial Review reports Ziad Basyouny and Ahmed Ouf, who are respectively challenging Tony Burke in Watson and Jason Clare in Blaxland with support from The Muslim Vote, are directing preferences to Labor ahead of Liberal “after failing to strike a preference deal with the opposition”. The Liberal how-to-vote cards have them both dead last, which does not surprise, but will nonetheless make life difficult for them. A review article in the Sun-Herald today says Labor believes it could face swings in the seats of “more than 6%”, with Watson of greater concern.
JIMBOB:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 5:16 pm
He’s contributed to this site from almost day one. He lives in Wentworth (Vaucluse, I think), and he’s agin, like you are, the current political duopoly. I think he aligns himself with the Teals. He can be very witty at times, and sometimes a tad cruel. I don’t think he’s ever got over the premature passing of two of his great aunts, both over 100.
Looks like Newspoll hasn’t come at the optimistic time of 5.30pm. Let’s hope it comes just after 7pm like last week and I won’t have to stay up for a 9.30pm job. It’d be nice to see a continuation of the trend and a 53-47 with a bump in ALP primary.
From his most recent posts, it appears Jimbob/Lars is transitioning into Pied Piper mode.
The Resolve poll found an increase in the Labor primary vote to 31 per cent.
That’s the only voting intention given in the SMH article.
Good to see resources going to SciTech: https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/scitech-needs-a-forever-home-are-its-days-at-city-west-numbered-20250417-p5lsl6.html
I just wish I had access to such a resource when I was in school.
Themunz
“ Further evidence to show why James Paterson would make a fine leader of the Liberal party:-)
https://x.com/strangerous10/status/1913730313899147497
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Thanks. How to destroy your credibility.
How stupid of Patterson to deny something when the other party has just been dumped and might be willing to leak the evidence.
Now that it looks like the Liberal campaign is stuck under an overpass there might be a few more leaks against their “leadership”. There will be few favours owed.
The Resolve Strategic thing is just further results from last week’s poll. The 31% figure for Labor is not new.
Rocket Rocket @ #301 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 4:04 pm
Yeah, the Canadian election will give a guide on whether the rage against Trump makes it all the way to the ballot box.
… then there’s April 20 imposition of Marshall Law… think Trump might keep the power dry on that one though
I get what the problem over there is now. Yes, this is a real photo.
Socrates @ #357 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 5:45 pm
The latest one I saw was Bridget Mackenzie not being willing to put a number on the Coalition Nuclear plan.
FFS is lars and lars von trier from years ago the same person, or is lars newer.
Sorry, but he/she keeps appearing in the convo.
Donald J Chump.. worst POTUS in history.. & yet latest poll shows him up 7% on 2017 & not that far behind Clinton & Biden… there is & never was any hope for Americans they are obsessed with their surrogate Kings, ever since they wrote their constitution .
Up 7% on 2017 FFS!!
Jimbob, just out of interest, how much did the independent firm in Franklin? The odds for the ALP candidate don’t seem to have moved much at all.
JIMBOB says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 5:09 pm
Bizzcan, let the constituency have say. Yes if people want guns back, vote for what you constituency wants. Most members of parliament think the seat belongs to them. It doesn’t thus vote independent who should vote accordingly to the wishes of the electorate. Major parties and minors like the Greens are also at fault. Labor voters seem to be the worse at worshipping HQ while ignoring the matters that affect them. If you rent and realisticly have no chance of owning why vote same same. Vote Green, you’ll be $$$$$$$ better off. Oh Labor increased rent assistance. Landlords just jacked price up. At least 25 in 25
__________________________________________
I can assure you that the Greens policy of re-introducing capital controls, especially in the current global economic environment would leave us all $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ worse off
Re C@t @5:47.
The sort of religious believers who Trump cultivated would surely regard those shirts as blasphemous.
NEWSPOLL, please. This one the most important if you’re having a flutter. After today the knowledge of insiders will be to the detriment of little people. In other words, big business will win regardless of ALP or Coalition win. We still have gambling advertising? Don’t like it, vote Greens or Independents. Don’t like Salmon farming, old growth logging, duck shooting etc etc, VOTE Independents and Greens. Let’s get democracy and transparency back from the Boomers. Bit like housing. Hopefully at least 25 in 25
The only thing that matters to Trump is this weeks poll that support for MAGA amongst republican voters has gone to 71% from 40 % when he was elected for a second time.
He is consolidating meanwhile the Democrats are a total and utter lost rabble who defend illegal gang members from rightful deportation and that folks will deliver more voters to Trump.
Musk doing well with DOGE.
Sceptic @ #363 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 5:51 pm
More people have been brainwashed into the cult since then.
S777 @ #366 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 5:54 pm
Are you kidding? They are exactly the ones who believe that stuff.
Hopefully at least 25 in 25
Vote 1 for the Herding of Cats Party!
Bizzcan, you Boomer? You own investment property? You have kids? You care about them and any future Grandchildren? You believe in man made climate change or all of the above is bullshit? Vote for your Grandchildren. Ateast 25 in 25. Transparency and democracy can be returned. Or vote to protect the money you have made.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:04 pm
Hopefully at least 25 in 25
Vote 1 for the Herding of Cats Party!
___________________________
I go away for a day or so and WTF is this 25 in 25 nonsense that is added to these posts?
That’s funny PP. Musk himself dropped the DOGE savings goal from $2 trillion to $150 billion. That’s some drop!
It’s interesting that the Greens are harking to the memory of the Whitlam glory days.
They must have fluffy memories of the good old days, most of which won’t be shared by the oldies in the electorate who actually experienced it.
I recall that Whitlam did a lot of great things – none of which were actually affordable at the time. Yes, we got Medicare (Medibank) and free tertiary education and lots of cutting edge social innovations, but not all memories are fond.
Sadly, it was Whitlam (and his flirtation with Tirith Khemlani) that cemented Labor’s reputation as poor money managers and Fraser’s subsequent firehosing of the budget that cemented the LNP’s (latterly-undeserved) reputation as good managers.
Fraser’s 1975 win was the biggest landslide win ever. The Libs won a simple majority of seats in their own right. That indicates to me a rather widespread dissatisfaction with the outgoing Labor government.
So, reminiscences of the Whitlam era glory days of policy may make young Greens moist with envy, but it won’t do much to win older votes. Roll on generational shift, eh?
Let’s hope the mouth from the south Jacqui Lambie who has not delivered is booted this election.
Will there be a surprise poll tonight other than Newspoll?
I was very young when Whitlam was about but he was a politician with a vision and a fought against inequality
Both things we need now, incremental change won’t get us to where we need to be
#25in25
“Both things we need now, incremental change won’t get us to where we need to be”
Decades of incremental change have got us where we are now.
Time to continue the trend of a declining vote share for the duopoly.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:00 pm
And the gormless simpleton Steve Kornacki carries on like a kid left on his own in a candy store.. any sane presenter would be ashen faced & in tears, saying I’ll be doing all future telecasts from Canada.. call me when it’s over
evads @ #373 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 6:08 pm
He’s just subtracted his performance bonus.
“That indicates to me a rather widespread dissatisfaction with the outgoing Labor government.”
=======================================================================
As Harold Wilson observed….”Events, events dear boy”
There was the great global oil shock sent inflation sky high! Plus Whitlam had used up one election cycle with the double dissolution in order to get Medibank up.
The young Murdoch was rabid in his new toy, The Australian.
”
torchbearersays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 4:35 pm
What I don’t get is that Indonesia is a thousand times more important to the future of Australia than Israel… yet look how many times has Dutton mentioned Israel..it is constant.
”
But in what way Israel is important to Australia? How is Israel geopolitically, economically and militarily important to Australia?
Why is Israel third most important ally to Australia? In what way Israel helped Australia?
Dr Fumbles McStupid @ #372 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 6:08 pm
Wishful thinking via a catchy slogan now being used by The Greens and Independent supporters in lieu of concrete policy substance.
“The System” needs to change. War crimes whistleblower David McBride
https://michaelwest.com.au/the-system-needs-to-change-war-crimes-whistleblower-david-mcbride/
“We don’t need a new government in Australia, we need a new system of government. Nor is this an impossible dream. The only thing that makes this impossible right now is that the two major parties act in concert to stop it.
They are on a good thing, and they don’t want anything to change much to change. When Labor wanted the NACC to remain secret they went to Dutton, their supposed ‘sworn enemy’. They both love AUKUS in equal measure, claiming its a good deal for Australia, when it’s really just a good deal for the major parties.
:::
MWM readers will know all this. The only way to get real change in this country is with a minority Labor government. Despite the fact that the media give them equal air time to the government, there is now little chance of Dutton forming a government. This time.
:::
…But a vote for Labor is a vote for Liberal, next time, and it keeps our nation on this awful merry-go-round of sleaze, pretence and inaction that will surely destroy what we, and our parents worked so hard to create for our children. Australia can do better. But it starts with us. “
Sceptic @ #378 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 6:19 pm
People get that way when they want to stay away from the Stasi. 😐
I’m more a Harry Enten person myself.
”
ajmsays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 4:35 pm
Democracy Sausage @ #300 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 4:03 pm
The Liberal truck stuck in the tunnel – a metaphor for their campaign.
It was stuck under a Skyrail underpass apparently.
No doubt put there by Daniel Andrews exactly for this purpose
”
What an horrible man Andrews is? 🙂
I have a lot of singular, personal memories of the Whitlam government.
Yes, there was rampant worldwide inflation, but I also recall Whitlam on the 7 o’çlock news explaining that the rate of increase of the rate of inflation was easing. The rate of increase of the rate of inflation, I thought? Translation: inflation was no longer rising exponentially month on month. It was just going up in a straight line. Triffic.
Rocket Rocket
“ I think the two foreign events that will definitively have an effect are
April 28 – Canadian election
April 30 – first quarter USA GDP released”
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I agree these will have an effect however I expect their effect on Australia will be less than in Canada.
Australians are correctly concerned about Trump’s impact on world stability and trade. However in both cases the risks for Canada are much bigger than for us.
It is potentially existential for Canada. It isn’t for Australia. In the end Australia could be both secure and prosperous without USA, as long as world war three or a trade war don’t break out.
As others have discussed earlier, in both cases our relationship with Indonesia is key.
JIMBOBsays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:06 pm
Bizzcan, you Boomer? You own investment property? You have kids? You care about them and any future Grandchildren? You believe in man made climate change or all of the above is bullshit? Vote for your Grandchildren. Ateast 25 in 25. Transparency and democracy can be returned. Or vote to protect the money you have made.
______________________
Thats nice, where does the Greens policy of collapsing Australia’s financial and retirement savings systems, crushing investment, and lowering living standards over the long term fit into this? Is the plan decarbonisation through destitution?
I think i prefer Labors plan of making aussie workers the winners in getting to net zero, rather than the detached privileged inner city policy of “letting us eat cake”.
Or perhaps you are one of these Greens/Teals spruikers who don’t actually know (or understand) the policies being promised outside some MSM clock’bating?
Israel is about as important to Australia as Palestine is. Ie not very except for people to shout very loudly about in an endeavour to out point score against their political opponents.
The eternal vulnerability of democratic governments : And why humility is the key to longevity
https://tdunlop.substack.com/p/the-eternal-vulnerability-of-democratic
“What is absolutely clear is that whatever the composition of our next government, a steady-as-she-goes approach will not be good enough, and this is worth lingering on a little. Labor, the Greens and the more progressive independents all need to internalise the fact that people are in the mood for major reform.
:::
America teaches us many lessons about the vulnerability of democracies, but surely a key lesson we should learn at the moment is that gentle, steady-as-she-goes centrism is no match for a determined movement of authoritarianism. We should also learn that people are not afraid of big policies, big change, and that they are looking for real alternatives to the sort of neoliberal managerialism that parties like the Democrats (and our own Labor Party) have come to embody. People know the last forty-odd years of policy has backed us into a cul de sac of massive inequality from which has arisen nearly all the problems that beset us and that this needs to be addressed, and they want something done about it
:::
f Labor gets over the line, it will only be because of preferences, and the government they form needs to recognise that fact in their bones. They will have been handed a huge opportunity to build a genuine bulwark against the sort of raging authoritarianism that is powerful everywhere in the world at the moment, but they need to recognise that any victory is not theirs alone.
This means that, even with a majority of seats, Labor will need to govern in a much more collaborative fashion than victors in Australian elections tend to do. All talk of mandates should be off the table and a genuine effort to address the big issues—from housing to climate change to our relationships with China and America—should dominate the next term.
You can’t tread water in a raging river.
The bottom line is that the trend away from the major parties will continue and extinction is waiting for any party that fails to recognise that the key to political longevity is the humility of genuine deliberation.”
I think it’s some kind of Greens wish list that the party will get 25 HoR seats at this year’s election.
It’s a bit naïve to call MacBride a “whistleblower” without actually describing his actions. He was an activist against the investigation of accusations of war crimes – specifically against 2 Commando Regiment. He leaked classified documents to the ABC and they took exactly the opposite tack than he expected – they reported on war crimes in the documents. MacBride was significantly displeased with this.
So yes, he disclosed classified information, but not for the reasons that mythology now asserts (by ommission).
Re Whitlam, my opinion FWIW is that the real ‘sliding doors’ moment in Oz politics was the 1969 election. Had Whitlam won, implementation of the program would have been a lot more simple, and would have avoided the oil crisis/inflation and the budget issues from 1974 onwards that slowed/stalled progress. The question would be, how would the senate have changed at the 1970 half senate election…
Dr Fumbles McStupid says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:08 pm
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:04 pm
Hopefully at least 25 in 25
Vote 1 for the Herding of Cats Party!
___________________________
I go away for a day or so and WTF is this 25 in 25 nonsense that is added to these posts?
__________________
The desire for 25 seats in 25 to be neither Labor not Coalition. On questioning there is a preference for progressively minded occupants but they willing accept all comers. Palmer, Hanson etc.
But don’t mention horseshoes 😉
I’m waiting for sprocket_ to manipulate those issue salience graphs for Albanese Labor and Dutton Coalition so that we can have them up here. I’d have to finagle it and test out some options before I got it right I think.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-top-reasons-voters-are-hesitant-on-albanese-or-dutton-and-it-s-worse-in-marginal-seats-20250418-p5lst0.html
“I think it’s some kind of Greens wish list that the party will get 25 HoR seats at this year’s election.”
A typical misrepresentation….it is shorthand for the hope of an expanded crossbench of 25 in 2025.
Confessions says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:35 pm
“WTF is this 25 in 25 nonsense that is added to these posts?”
I think it’s some kind of Greens wish list that the party will get 25 HoR seats at this year’s election.
__________
If only it was.
Confessions says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:35 pm
WTF is this 25 in 25 nonsense that is added to these posts?
I think it’s some kind of Greens wish list that the party will get 25 HoR seats at this year’s election.
_________________________
That makes scence, I was thinking it was a PV of 25 percent, no wonder they want to APS to prepare an incoming Govt brief for the Greens
”
Confessionssays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 5:09 pm
Lars is too embarrassed to post under their normal screen name and has to invent a sock puppet to continue commenting?
LOL.
”
Confessions and C@tmomma
The final confirmation bias is established once JIMBOB posted “Labor voters seem to be the worse at worshipping HQ while ignoring the matters that affect them”
No doubt now, JIMBOB is Lars
Pauline Hanson is refusing to repay Coalition moves to preference One Nation in key battleground seats, putting minor conservative parties ahead of Liberal and National MPs and candidates on how-to-vote cards.
The Coalition has directed its voters to preference One Nation second in a raft of must-win seats it hopes to wrestle off Labor across Australia. In Peter Dutton’s home state of Queensland, the Coalition has put One Nation second in 18 of the state’s 30 seats.
The move marks the biggest departure of the Coalition’s decades-long reticence to preference Senator Hanson’s party after John Howard issued an edict in 2001 edict that One Nation should be “placed last on every Liberal Party how-to-vote card around Australia”. Senator Hanson said the Coalition move was recognition that it “can work with One Nation on legislation and policy”.
But she said she would still be putting Liberal and Nationals MPs and candidates behind other conservative minor parties on how-to-vote cards for the House of Representatives and sixth in the Senate. “We have a proven track record that they can work with us; this idea of an extreme right party, that excuse, that’s a thing of the past, Senator Hanson said. “Normally, we would leave the Coalition off how-to-vote cards in the Senate but we are putting them at six because we didn’t want our votes to exhaust. “If the Coalition can’t win the House of Representatives, there needs to be a change in the Senate, we can’t let Labor have control of both houses with the aid of the Greens. In the lower house, we will put them (Coalition) below the conservative minor parties but ahead of Labor and the teals.’’
The Coalition has put One Nation second on its how-to-vote cards in key Labor-held seats it is targeting, including Hunter, Robertson and Paterson in NSW, Blair in Queensland and Solomon in the Northern Territory. It has put One Nation in the second spot in the upper house in Queensland and NSW.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/pauline-hanson-refuses-to-direct-preferences-to-coalition/news-story/d66395c8d642fd0fd8d8f789d14d1566?amp