With early voting to begin on Tuesday, details of how-to-vote cards are starting to accumulate. So far as the Senate is concerned, the ABC is making life easy by gathering them in one place, while the eternally patient among you can view lower house how-to-vote cards for Labor candidates and Liberal candidates one by one on individual candidate pages. I tend to consider the subject not worth much of the news space devoted to it, because only major party voters follow them in substantial numbers, and in most cases they make the final count and their preferences are thus not distributed — though the number of exceptions is of course much higher than it used to be.
The Victorian Electoral Commission provided a rare insight into the matter when it made available full ballot paper data for seven seats at the 2022 state election, which is normally available only for upper house counts and in New South Wales, where its applicability is limited by optional preferential voting. The rate at which Labor votes exactly followed the how-to-vote card was consistently around 30% (helpfully, there were large numbers of candidates in these seats, so few are likely to arrived upon the requisite order by happenstance). The rate of adherence among Liberal voters varied widely according to the amount of effort the party was putting into a given seat — 57.0% in Brighton, where it was fighting off a teal independent, and 53.9% in Hawthorn, where it was successfully challenging a Labor incumbent, but only 29.4% in Preston, where the fight was between Labor and the Greens.
As for minor parties, whether the Greens actively preference Labor (as they are doing in every seat at this election) or offer no recommendation (which is as far as they ever go in repudiating Labor) makes about five points’ worth of difference to the percentage received by Labor, which is typically upwards of 80%. The impact is likely even less for smaller parties, which lack the volunteer base needed to disseminate how-to-vote cards on a large scale at polling places. As such, it would not pay to put too much weight on the decision by Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots to direct preferences against most sitting members. It was, indeed, news to me that his United Australia Party had done much the same in 2022, a fact related by Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group in a report in the News Corp papers yesterday. Out of 108 seats where the relevant data exists, I calculate that Labor got 41.7% of UAP preferences in seats where they had sitting members in 2022 and 35.5% where the Coalition did – the opposite of what would have been expected if their voters had been following the how-to-vote card in non-trivial numbers.
The same approach was adopted by One Nation during its early heyday at the Western Australian state election in 2001, in this case involving a party with genuine mass support and not simply the artefact of a multi-million dollar advertising campaign. This is sometimes said to have been a key factor in Labor’s unexpectedly clear-cut win at the election over the two-term Coalition government of Richard Court. To test this, I have just blown the dust of my print copy of the statistical returns from that elections and identified 24 seats where One Nation candidates were the last excluded in the preference count and their votes distributed between Labor and the Coalition. The distinction in this case was at least in the right direction, but nonetheless very modest — Labor averaged 53.2% of the preference transfers in Coalition-held seats and 49.7% in Labor-held seats. I assumed there would be a relationship between Labor’s vote share in a given seat and the strength of its preference flow — the likeliest explanation for the counter-intuitive finding just noted for the United Australia Party — but there was in fact little evidence of this.
So with all that in mind, the following points worth noting have emerged from news reportage, in lieu of my own lack of motivation to investigate the matter too deeply myself:
• Macnamara is the only seat where Labor is not directing preferences, which it is doing there at the initiative of incumbent Josh Burns in recognition of the local Jewish community’s concerns about the Greens. It is entirely possible that Burns will run third, in which case Labor preferences will come into play in the race between the Liberals and the Greens. Had it played out that way in 2022, the Greens would have won handily on a flood of Labor preferences, just as Burns easily defeated the Liberals after receiving fully 90.25% of the preferences from the third-placed Greens. Macnamara partly corresponds with the state seat of Brighton, where the behaviour of Labor preferences in 2022 was noted above. The 10,126 Labor votes in the seat included 3231 who followed the card, 5468 who favoured the Greens over the Liberals independently, and 1427 who had the Liberals ahead of the Greens. If those who followed the how-to-vote card had split in the same proportion as those who did, the flow of Labor preferences to the Greens would have fallen from 85.9% to 79.3%. Making a reasonable assumption that the Labor primary vote in the seat will be about 30%, this suggests Labor’s open ticket could contribute about 2% to a swing of upwards of 10% that the Liberals would need if it came down to them and the Greens.
• Next door in Goldstein, Liberal candidate Tim Wilson has teal incumbent Zoe Wilson second last ahead of the Greens, leaving her behind One Nation as well as Labor. The Age notes that Wilson said in 2019 that he had “a longstanding view that we should put One Nation and their despicable acolytes last”. While this may be of interest on an optical level, Wilson’s preferences are of little electoral consequence as he seems assured of making the final count.
• Conversely, the Liberals in Western Australia have put teal independent Kate Hulett ahead of Labor in third place in Fremantle (though here too they favour One Nation, who are second), a fairly remarkable turnaround on the March state election when they had her last but for the Greens.
• Labor are favouring Liberal over the Nationals in the three-cornered contest in the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel. However, an apparent improvement in Labor’s fortunes suggests the issue here is likely to be whether Nationals candidate Mia Davies or Liberal candidate Matt Moran makes it to the final count against Labor’s Trish Cook.
• The Liberals may have scotched the chances of independent Peter George by putting him behind Labor in Franklin. George is a former ABC journalist running with support from Climate 200 and in opposition to salmon farming, none of which would have endeared him to the Liberals. With 19-year-old Greens candidate Owen Fitzgerald having conceded he would be unable to sit in parliament due to a dual citizenship, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported the party was expected to throw its support behind George, who had already been endorsed by former party leader Bob Brown.
• Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent has interestingly opted to place teal independent Deb Leonard all-but-last in Monash. Leonard was presumably counting on getting ahead of him and benefiting from the strong preference flows that typically apply between independents.
• Paul Karp of the Financial Review reports Ziad Basyouny and Ahmed Ouf, who are respectively challenging Tony Burke in Watson and Jason Clare in Blaxland with support from The Muslim Vote, are directing preferences to Labor ahead of Liberal “after failing to strike a preference deal with the opposition”. The Liberal how-to-vote cards have them both dead last, which does not surprise, but will nonetheless make life difficult for them. A review article in the Sun-Herald today says Labor believes it could face swings in the seats of “more than 6%”, with Watson of greater concern.
‘Grime says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 1:24 pm
barney @ #184 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 1:15 pm
Grimesays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 12:38 pm
Excuse me William but there is a miss type in the cover post above.
“Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent has interestingly opted to place teal independent Deb Thomas all-but-last in Monash, ”
independant Deb Thomas should read Deb Leonard.
Interestingly although the Labor candidate has placed her 2nd,Deb has not returned the favour as in her HTV.
—————–
Grimesays, the pedant curse strikes us every every time.
it’s independEnt
“Hoisted by my own petard”:-)
I must not misspell independent
I must not misspell independent
I must not misspell independent
I must not misspell
I must not
I must
I’
=============
haha. I enjoyed a wry grin when you posted it.
Greens are bogged federally.Newspoll in a few hours.
AI through business and consumer is here now,agentic agents this year and next will be adopted widespread and mass robots driven via AI will be here in 2027.
The communists had a half marathon race today between robots and humans the robots a few of them emitted smoke and lost.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 2:39 pm
Dr D
Don’t know if you saw this in SMH
Someone suggesting we should have opposed Indonesia and supported the Dutch militarily in western New Guinea. Obviously someone who was not alive at the time.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/did-we-back-the-wrong-war-in-the-60s-now-putin-s-russia-is-knocking-on-the-door-20250417-p5lsl7.html‘
============================
Not at all straightforward, IMO.
But certainly there was zero point in Australia engaging militarily.
The Dutch were have no real military problem with handling Indonesian attempts to invade West Irian.
Basically the West Irianese were sacrificed on the altar or US/Soviet Cold War… by Kennedy.
(FWIW, Andrew Bolt had his origins in the that neck of the historical woods.)
Strumpet of Patriots says,
“The ALP needs to realize that they will never win government or control in the Senate without Greens support.”
——
I think it’s clear that no party is likely to hold a Senate majority any time soon. The Senate is a proportional representation kinda place so it’s caught inextricably in this third/third/third reality. So it might be more accurate to say,
“The ALP and LNP need to realise that will never win control in the Senate without crossbench or minority support.”
And I kinda suspect they already know that.
Was thinking Legalise Cannabis Parry night have a chance for a senate spot in Vic due to Fiona Pattern being on the ticket, who is well known down here from state politics, progressive but not radical.
Also of note, Australian Democrats are on both Liberal (@#6) and Labor (@#3) HTV cards in Vic, which I guess is pretty unusual.
@William – the poster mentioning Sharia Law is over-egging the pudding but I’d say it’s fair to be skeptical of Basyouny and think that behind Basyouny’s rhetoric he really means a Palestinian state.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/western-sydney-parliamentary-hopeful-dr-ziad-basyouny-caught-sharing-posts-celebrating-hamas-october-7-attack/news-story/fdcc4992c80265df4d31f65bd70b68ea
This is kind of like The Age’s insistence that Labor claims about Dutton are false because the Coalition have vowed not to make the cuts Labor says they’ll make. Labor is explicitly accusing the Coalition of lying. Just as there’s evidence to suggest the Coalition is dishonest, there’s evidence that Basyouny is here putting a more acceptable gloss on his real beliefs. Maybe that’s right and maybe it isn’t – that’s for voters to decide in both cases.
Another week, another batch of MAGA faithful finding out the hard way
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/19/2317286/-Another-week-another-batch-of-MAGA-faithful-finding-out-the-hard-way?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web
We all know the meme:
?
“The leopards have been feasting. Today we’re checking in on two big Trump-loving (or Dutton loving) constituencies: truckers and soy farmers. ”
(That is the same in Australia)
“Truckers love Donald Trump. Per FEC donation data, truck drivers are nearly three-quarters Republican, making it one of the reddest professions. You can imagine why. This group is mostly rural, mostly white and male, and tied to a job that lives and dies by the cost of fossil fuels, particularly diesel—which can account for up to 40% of costs. They also hated environmental mandates to electrify their fleets.
In 2014, truck driver was the most common job title in most American states—and a significant one in pretty much all of them. I wasn’t able to find more recent statistics, but demand for shipping has only intensified in the e-commerce age. Truck driving is one of the last professions that provides a path to financial security without a college degree. ”
What is written in this article will happen to Truckies and Farmers in Australia if LNP gets elected on May 3rd election
The ALP needs to realize that they will never win government or control in the Senate without Greens support.
________________________________________________
The word “never” makes the above totally absurd.
In any case the current polling indicates Labor will retain government without Greens support (though possibly needing the support of a small number of independents). As for “control” of the Senate, no party has controlled the Senate since 2007. However lots of legislation has passed – often with the opposition of the Greens across all governments since then.
Poliphilisays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 12:33 pm
Dutton’s bought independent experts have assumed that Australia’s future electricity needs will be around 30% less than now.
If anyone can shrink the economy by 30%, I guess Dutton is the guy.
” The Coalition need less electricity because they are full of gas. Gina who is a firm believer in Peter Dutton and they say she is so full of gas, that Western Australia is only state big enough to fit her arse in.”
Yeah. Nah. William is right. No place for it on Bludger, IMO.
Other than that, I am sure that Basyouny was including Hamas’ systematic abuse of human rights in Gaza in his general spray about the abuse of human rights in Gaza. Which, in turn, would be why Greens’ posters feel they are on ethical high ground when spreading the word on behalf of Basyouny.
In case anyone hasn’t seen it, the weird unit being shared on video tearing down and violently vandalising one of Monique Ryan’s corflutes is surgeon Greg Malham.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/chilling-video-captures-surgeon-tearing-down-monique-ryan-corflute-before-stomping-on-it-and-burying-it-20250418-p5lst4.html
If anyone feels so inclined, you could let his employer (Epworth Hospitals) know. I have a suspicion he may have cooked his career.
My mind boggles. How long before we see those 1/2 marathon humanoids running towards the enemy with an improved version of the QBZ-95’s or some such, impervious to return fire.
US muslims certainly discovered a thing or two about voting for christmas when they were voting for Trump.
They got Hegseth.
That much seems reasonable.
‘Grime says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 3:00 pm
My mind boggles. How long before we see those 1/2 marathon humanoids running towards the enemy with an improved version of the QBZ-95’s or some such, impervious to return fire.’
===================
Bipedalism is a ludicrously inefficient way of getting your payload across the battlefield.
@mj “If you’re so wise then you might want to start forming arguments based on evidence rather than wishful thinking.”
The irony is astounding.
@S777:” * not Jews, as some scurrilous accusers are saying ”
I believe that of the bulk of Green supporters and I used to believe that of the leadership but between the soft pedalling of Jenny Leong and the adoption of the “from the river to the sea” chant which they KNOW is interpreted as a call to genocide Jews, I don’t believe it anymore. They’d never tolerate either of those things aimed at Muslims or Indigenous people. This is the party that cares about microaggessions FFS, they could have any number of slogans about free Palestine but they choose the one that repeats Hamas’ genocidal charter, so…..
If there’s another poll tonight I expect Dutton to resign as Liberal leader on Monday
Boerwar says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 3:01 pm
For them it was a win win situation… they had no other way to vote… burn the house down principle.. can you blame them.
This recent video shows a successful bipedal walker tackling obstacles, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7BrA6mvvPk&ab_channel=BrickExperimentChannel
And an old video of a mighty machine that used the same form of locomotion https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZvquNAXRe4&ab_channel=JoLloyd
For them it was a win win situation… they had no other way to vote… burn the house down principle.. can you blame them.
________________________________________________
Of course they had other ways to vote.
For starters, they could have voted for what they thought was the best for the country in which they live and, in some cases, were given refuge, rather than on the basis of a conflict in the Middle East where the beneficiary of their votes has turned the situation from a rhetorical “genocide” into the very real risk of an actual one.
Sceptic @ #268 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 3:08 pm
Can he take the Victorian Senate team with him as well.
Australian leaders need to be very clear eyed in regard to which country the USA thinks is more important between Australia and Indonesia.
The USA has always supported Indonesia when there has been a conflict between Australia and Indonesia.
First in the Indonesian battle for independence the USA supported Indonesia while Menzies and other Australians, apart from some Unions ,were supporting the Dutch control of Indonesia.
Second,Australia requested US support, under the ANZUS treaty ,when Australia was fighting against Indonsian ‘confrontasi” against malaya. President Kennedy refused Australias request for military support..
Thirdly,John Howard requested US support ,under the ANZUS treaty ,when Australia sent troops to Timor to help them in their move to independence from Indonesia and President Clinton refused to send US troops leaving Australia alone earning the dislike of many Indonesians.
In the long run, Australia must realize that Indonesia is the country with which we are most likely to have military conflict, not China.
Indonesia will be the fourth wealthiest country and largest muslim country in the world in 30 years and the USA has long realized that Indonesia is much more important to them ,in their fight against China ,than Australia.
This means Australia must make Indonesia our highest priority in maintaining good diplomatic relations while realizing that the USA would never support Australia against Indonesia in a conflict.
“You have to ask yourself exactly what he means by that? A unified Palestinian State under Sharia Law? A Unified Palestinian State simply strictly Muslim and all that entails for Women’s Rights and lack of them? A Unified Palestinian State that supports ‘From the River to the Sea’? A Unified Palestinian State that supports Iran, Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah?
Anyway, this is an Australian election, not a Palestinian election.”
Which part of “unified, pluralist, democratic state in historic Palestine where all live as equal citizens” do you have an issue with?
I expect Dutton to resign as Liberal leader on Monday
———————————————
Although unlikely, that could help the Libs, They aint winning with his presence at the helm.
‘Strumpets of Parrots says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 3:15 pm
Australian leaders need to be very clear eyed in regard to which country the USA thinks is more important between Australia and Indonesia.
The USA has always supported Indonesia when there has been a conflict between Australia and Indonesia.
…’
============
The US supported Australia in East Timor.
It is not too late for the Liberals to change leaders.
pithicus @ #275 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 3:18 pm
Is there a Drovers dog in the house?
pithicussays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 11:00 am
Re Balta. Let the court sort it.
_____________________
Exactly.
But Allan can’t help herself.
Her meddling in police and legal matters has already cost us 2 Chief Commissioners.
TPOF says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 3:13 pm
Think about it from their point of view… Trump supports Palestinian genocide.. Biden supports Palestinian genocide.. what’s the difference.. I’d vote to burn the house down as well & let Americans see what it’s like to live in a pile of rubble..
Look at the Ukraine view of defending themselves from Putin.. it’s a case of whatever it takes.. we’ll do it .. never surrender!
America has had a hand in the deaths of 3-4 million in the last few years… so what if America descends into civil war
C@tmomma @ #203 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 1:38 pm
That’s worrying list. A year ago, such a list would have been mostly comical. Now it’s plausible. I think the problem for Dutton is that they would generally work in favour of the incumbent (perhaps not the last one).
The narrow path for Dutton needs Trump to STFU and hope they can claw back enough Teals seats, bag a few ALP seats in Victoria and few elsewhere. Not likely, but not impossible either.
Grime says Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 3:24 pm
Not one with the charisma and popularity Hawke had in 83.
Arky says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 3:06 pm
@mj “If you’re so wise then you might want to start forming arguments based on evidence rather than wishful thinking.”
The irony is astounding.
———
How so? You would think posters on Poll Bludger would be at least numerate enough to back up their claims.
bc @ #282 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 3:28 pm
Yeh I guess aged Angus wouldn’t fit the Bill.
William Bowe @ #243 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 2:31 pm
Okay I withdraw that assertion. However, it wasn’t actually stating what he does think but more intended to make people think about what a vote for a specifically Muslim political party or candidatemay mean…in the most extreme case.
Sorry, but I’ve just been looking at the terrible retrograde steps that have been taken by the Taliban since they retook control of Afghanistan and it colours my thinking.
I just saw some of the pictures of Greg Malham being caught in the act. Going by his appearance, if surgery doesn’t work out he can probably find a position with the CFMEU.
C@tmomma @ #285 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 3:32 pm
I think most of us saw that coming 🙁 sadly.
* Trump drops the hammer on NATO via attacking Greenland
This one is entirely possible..
EU response.. would be… fine we’ll switch over to trading in Chinese RMB.. after all they are the worlds largest trading nation, & if you eliminate US$ trade in financial & IT services the yanks are TOAST .. they produce nothing the world can’t buy elsewhere
“Temu Trump: Peter Dutton’s Problem” – Swollen Pickles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lt1aeQyT4Ww&pp=ygUXdGVtdSB0cnVtcCBwZXRlciBkdXR0b24%3D
BW
I think it safe to say that the Dutch role in the independence of Indonesia followed by what could laughingly be call their role in West New Guinea was not glorious.
The Dutch were have no real military problem with handling Indonesian attempts to invade West Irian. Really? are you saying the Dutch had both the will and resources to defeat Sukarno in the Dutch East Indies? Because they handled him so easily in the rest of the Dutch East Indies.
You would have been politically aware and obviously interested when this question occupied Australia’s mind in the early 60s. I was very young but I remember the anxiety Indonesia caused at the time and Menzies easily winning the ’63 election by upgrading the RAAF with a promise of F111s (and promising the first state aid to diocesan schools)
Must admit I enjoyed Bandt comparing the Greens policy platform with Whitlam this morning, accurate and visionary
#25in25
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 10:15 am
“Richmond great Jack Riewoldt was also critical of his former club’s handling of Balta.
Riewoldt said on Fox Footy the Tigers’ decision to select his ex-teammate while court proceedings were ongoing did not sit well with him and it did not pass the public “sniff test”.
Speaking before Saturday night’s match, Riewoldt said there was “no way” Balta should be playing.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-19/afl-saturday-live-melb-frem-adel-gws-rich-gc/105193286
____________________
I’m with Jack on this.
It’s interesting that Hardwick has singled out only Jacinta Allan when everyone and their dog is giving their opinion.
=====================================================
Though one thing is sure: Hardwick’s look over there was highly successful, as far more people are talking about what he said than the poor performance of his team.
How busy are metro/suburban early voting centres likely to be on day one? Can I assume that the busiest times will be ~11:30 to 1:30 (ie lunch time)?
What I found odd looking for pre-poll centres is not too far from me at the edge of my electorate there’s one large centre that’s doing three electorates, and 500m down the road there’s another centre doing one of the electorates that the larger one is doing. The only difference between them is that that the large centre is also an election day centre.
I’m actually next door to an election day polling place but I’d rather kill two birds with one stone if I have to go do errands near a pre-poll.
Australian PM on the rest is politics, an English podcast. Lot more general than the gotacha stuff you get out of the Australin press.
v7https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_6BFOtWdHI
Greg Malham is a visiting medical officer and not an employee of Epsworth.
He has surgical privileges which they may withdraw but I think it would be an interesting legal case, presumably they would have to prove that he has brought discredit on the hospital’s reputation.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 2:39 pm
Dr D
Don’t know if you saw this in SMH
Someone suggesting we should have opposed Indonesia and supported the Dutch militarily in western New Guinea. Obviously someone who was not alive at the time.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/did-we-back-the-wrong-war-in-the-60s-now-putin-s-russia-is-knocking-on-the-door-20250417-p5lsl7.html
______________________
I find that people who question the holy book of the Echidna Strategy tend to get crucified around here.
“First in the Indonesian battle for independence the USA supported Indonesia while Menzies and other Australians, apart from some Unions ,were supporting the Dutch control of Indonesia.”
The conflict was over and Indonesia independent by the time Menzies came to power. Although not explicitly stated, Evatt was happy to see the Dutch piss off to their cold, water sogged little patch of earth and certainly looked for good relations with Sukarno.
Boewar
Although the USA gave limited intelligence support to Australia during Australias Timor invasion I am sure they also reassured Indonesia that they would not put any troops on the ground and left Australia suffering the diplomatic damage with Indonesia.
Australia must realize that we cannot rely on the USA for our defence and make sure we always match Indonesias military strength.
We must also realize that Indonesia considers Australia as their biggest military threat and not do anything to provoke them.
Indonesia has already expressed its concern about the build up of Darwin as a base for nuclear armed aircraft and has stated that if Australia ever provided a base for nuclear weapons that they would consider having nuclear weapons .
Oakeshott Country at 2.39 pm and Boerwar at 2.53 pm
As you know, Boerwar is correct, in that Australian acquiescence to the Javanese takeover of West Papua in 1962 was determined in Washington.
Only a few years earlier, in 1958, the US had supported a rebellion against Sukarno but then they changed. It was not in the US interest to prolong European colonialism, despite what they had done in Vietnam. That reflected broader geopolitical shifts, with the USSR apparently making gains in the Middle East, particularly Egypt, which did not last very long.
The journo who authored the article (paywalled so I haven’t read it) may have been born in the early 1960s. He is apparently a good photographer.
Many journos have a simplistic view of history, presuming the current awful situation could have been avoided by a sensible past policy.
Sometimes that is right but often it is more complicated. The irony is that within three years, in 1965, Australia was involved in a shooting war with Indonesia, konfrontasi in Malaysia.
That just goes to show how unreliable the US has been as an ally in difficult situations after WWII, despite all the Australian insurance premiums paid by joining dubious US adventures.
Looked at strategically, why would Indonesian control of West Papua, and later East Timor, be helpful to Australia? It is not surprising that the main bureaucratic opposition to Whitlam’s tolerance of Javanese expansionism came from the Defence Department. Yet the US facilitated Javanese expansionism repeatedly.
There are many reasons why human rights abuses have continued in West Papua, while East Timor has been a much safer place now for 25 years.
One background reason, within the context of the EU, is the different policies of Portugal and Holland to the legacies of their colonialism. The Portuguese have been much better at Repentance (to borrow the title of a Georgian film about Stalin’s crimes) than the Dutch, perhaps because at key times social democratic leaders (like the current UN Secretary Gen) have been in charge in Portugal, rather than the hard-arsed types.
Of course there are other factors. The key episode in the institutionalised butchery of West Papua by the TNI occurred in 1969, before the rise of a global human rights movement, which promoted Timorese freedom.
Even so, the Timorese were lucky in the end. If APEC had not occurred in early September 1999 in Auckland, but two months later, the TNI might still be in charge of East Timor now.
Anecdote
I was at a seminar on Australian-Asian relations a few years ago.
An Indonesian speaker, from Bali, spoke of the wonderful bilateral relationship and how grateful they were that so many Australians chose Indonesia for their holidays.
the first and inevitable question was: “Do you think that the majority of Australian tourists in Bali actually know that they are in Indonesia?”
The Liberal truck stuck in the tunnel – a metaphor for their campaign.