With early voting to begin on Tuesday, details of how-to-vote cards are starting to accumulate. So far as the Senate is concerned, the ABC is making life easy by gathering them in one place, while the eternally patient among you can view lower house how-to-vote cards for Labor candidates and Liberal candidates one by one on individual candidate pages. I tend to consider the subject not worth much of the news space devoted to it, because only major party voters follow them in substantial numbers, and in most cases they make the final count and their preferences are thus not distributed — though the number of exceptions is of course much higher than it used to be.
The Victorian Electoral Commission provided a rare insight into the matter when it made available full ballot paper data for seven seats at the 2022 state election, which is normally available only for upper house counts and in New South Wales, where its applicability is limited by optional preferential voting. The rate at which Labor votes exactly followed the how-to-vote card was consistently around 30% (helpfully, there were large numbers of candidates in these seats, so few are likely to arrived upon the requisite order by happenstance). The rate of adherence among Liberal voters varied widely according to the amount of effort the party was putting into a given seat — 57.0% in Brighton, where it was fighting off a teal independent, and 53.9% in Hawthorn, where it was successfully challenging a Labor incumbent, but only 29.4% in Preston, where the fight was between Labor and the Greens.
As for minor parties, whether the Greens actively preference Labor (as they are doing in every seat at this election) or offer no recommendation (which is as far as they ever go in repudiating Labor) makes about five points’ worth of difference to the percentage received by Labor, which is typically upwards of 80%. The impact is likely even less for smaller parties, which lack the volunteer base needed to disseminate how-to-vote cards on a large scale at polling places. As such, it would not pay to put too much weight on the decision by Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots to direct preferences against most sitting members. It was, indeed, news to me that his United Australia Party had done much the same in 2022, a fact related by Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group in a report in the News Corp papers yesterday. Out of 108 seats where the relevant data exists, I calculate that Labor got 41.7% of UAP preferences in seats where they had sitting members in 2022 and 35.5% where the Coalition did – the opposite of what would have been expected if their voters had been following the how-to-vote card in non-trivial numbers.
The same approach was adopted by One Nation during its early heyday at the Western Australian state election in 2001, in this case involving a party with genuine mass support and not simply the artefact of a multi-million dollar advertising campaign. This is sometimes said to have been a key factor in Labor’s unexpectedly clear-cut win at the election over the two-term Coalition government of Richard Court. To test this, I have just blown the dust of my print copy of the statistical returns from that elections and identified 24 seats where One Nation candidates were the last excluded in the preference count and their votes distributed between Labor and the Coalition. The distinction in this case was at least in the right direction, but nonetheless very modest — Labor averaged 53.2% of the preference transfers in Coalition-held seats and 49.7% in Labor-held seats. I assumed there would be a relationship between Labor’s vote share in a given seat and the strength of its preference flow — the likeliest explanation for the counter-intuitive finding just noted for the United Australia Party — but there was in fact little evidence of this.
So with all that in mind, the following points worth noting have emerged from news reportage, in lieu of my own lack of motivation to investigate the matter too deeply myself:
• Macnamara is the only seat where Labor is not directing preferences, which it is doing there at the initiative of incumbent Josh Burns in recognition of the local Jewish community’s concerns about the Greens. It is entirely possible that Burns will run third, in which case Labor preferences will come into play in the race between the Liberals and the Greens. Had it played out that way in 2022, the Greens would have won handily on a flood of Labor preferences, just as Burns easily defeated the Liberals after receiving fully 90.25% of the preferences from the third-placed Greens. Macnamara partly corresponds with the state seat of Brighton, where the behaviour of Labor preferences in 2022 was noted above. The 10,126 Labor votes in the seat included 3231 who followed the card, 5468 who favoured the Greens over the Liberals independently, and 1427 who had the Liberals ahead of the Greens. If those who followed the how-to-vote card had split in the same proportion as those who did, the flow of Labor preferences to the Greens would have fallen from 85.9% to 79.3%. Making a reasonable assumption that the Labor primary vote in the seat will be about 30%, this suggests Labor’s open ticket could contribute about 2% to a swing of upwards of 10% that the Liberals would need if it came down to them and the Greens.
• Next door in Goldstein, Liberal candidate Tim Wilson has teal incumbent Zoe Wilson second last ahead of the Greens, leaving her behind One Nation as well as Labor. The Age notes that Wilson said in 2019 that he had “a longstanding view that we should put One Nation and their despicable acolytes last”. While this may be of interest on an optical level, Wilson’s preferences are of little electoral consequence as he seems assured of making the final count.
• Conversely, the Liberals in Western Australia have put teal independent Kate Hulett ahead of Labor in third place in Fremantle (though here too they favour One Nation, who are second), a fairly remarkable turnaround on the March state election when they had her last but for the Greens.
• Labor are favouring Liberal over the Nationals in the three-cornered contest in the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel. However, an apparent improvement in Labor’s fortunes suggests the issue here is likely to be whether Nationals candidate Mia Davies or Liberal candidate Matt Moran makes it to the final count against Labor’s Trish Cook.
• The Liberals may have scotched the chances of independent Peter George by putting him behind Labor in Franklin. George is a former ABC journalist running with support from Climate 200 and in opposition to salmon farming, none of which would have endeared him to the Liberals. With 19-year-old Greens candidate Owen Fitzgerald having conceded he would be unable to sit in parliament due to a dual citizenship, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported the party was expected to throw its support behind George, who had already been endorsed by former party leader Bob Brown.
• Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent has interestingly opted to place teal independent Deb Leonard all-but-last in Monash. Leonard was presumably counting on getting ahead of him and benefiting from the strong preference flows that typically apply between independents.
• Paul Karp of the Financial Review reports Ziad Basyouny and Ahmed Ouf, who are respectively challenging Tony Burke in Watson and Jason Clare in Blaxland with support from The Muslim Vote, are directing preferences to Labor ahead of Liberal “after failing to strike a preference deal with the opposition”. The Liberal how-to-vote cards have them both dead last, which does not surprise, but will nonetheless make life difficult for them. A review article in the Sun-Herald today says Labor believes it could face swings in the seats of “more than 6%”, with Watson of greater concern.
mj
If Labor maintain or increase their majority and the Coalition lose more seats to independents I wonder if the Penny will drop, or if it would take another election for them to realise they actually need their ‘traditional’ blue ribbon seats to have any chance of forming government again.
Me, I will be happy if they keep their MAGA hats on, believing that Australians will eventually warm to their home-grown brand of Trumpiam.
The chaos and dysfunction in America does offer opportunities for Australia. Eg China is now buying more of our beef not America’s, and similar opportunities exist in other industries.
But yes, America can no longer be regarded as a reliable ally and we are going to face some tough decisions over the next few years.
Ugh. Just ate my Easter Bunny (dark chocolate with mint fyi) and now I feel ill. Oh well, the happy chemicals in the chocolate (Theobromine) will soon kick in and I just won’t care! 🙂
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-20/safe-seat-disruptors-changing-political-landscape/105191762
“Marketing strategist Toby Ralph said seats that were ripe for a challenge often had a high number of tertiary-educated people, more professional women, and more younger people.
Marketing strategist Toby Ralph said seats that were ripe for a challenge often had a high number of tertiary-educated people, more professional women, and more younger people.
“Very often those parties will have a tired alternative who is forced into toeing the party line and there will be discontent there,” he said. ”
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Fed up with being ignored by the duopoly, voters in safe seats have an opportunity to shake things up.
pied piper – get your facts straight as I posted earlier:
The US vice-president, JD Vance, had “an exchange of opinions” with the Vatican’s secretary of state over current international conflicts and immigration when they met on Saturday, the Vatican has said.
The Vatican issued a statement after Vance, a Catholic convert, met Cardinal Pietro Parolin and the foreign minister, Archbishop Paul Gallagher. There was no indication he met Pope Francis, who has resumed some official duties during his recovery from pneumonia.
I’ve got mixed views about this article. While I will acknowledge the major parties vote is falling. I’m not sure where headed into a permanent era of multi parties. I think political commentators in the UK were thinking this after a huge increase in seats from the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party. But since then both the Conservatives and Labour have won resounding majority’s since the heights over those parties electoral success. I will also acknowledge they have first past the post voting which is a different voting system to Australia. I will also acknowledge minor parties and independents seem harder dislodge once their elected to Australian federal parliament.
One of the themes coming out from the article is the lack of bold reform by the major parties is why voters are seeking minor parties/independents. It’s why if Labor gets in next term moving on negative gearing may be more a political realty rather then a political risk to court those voters.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-20/minor-parties-election-outcome-/105100176
Putin has seen the new Anti American Alliance forming and has begun his intimidation campaign against what they are planning to do in Ukraine. Expect Trump to come on board with the Putin propaganda machine against this in 2 ups.
Speaking of political ginger groups, there’s an informative article today about the campaigns of the Independents in SW Sydney focusing on the seats of Mcmahon, Werriwa, Fowler, Blaxland and Watson:
Jihad Dib is worried. “There is a change,” he says. “You can feel the change.”
The state Labor minister, transformative education leader and the first NSW MP to take his oath on a Quran has never seen an election campaign like this.
It is personal, deeply divided and increasingly hostile. And it is being driven by sophisticated social media campaigns that have splintered communities, forced Labor ministers out of mosques and littered streets with corflutes stained blood-red.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hostile-and-deeply-divided-in-south-west-sydney-it-s-an-election-campaign-like-never-before-20250408-p5lq2l.html
Rocket
The problem with the ilLiberals is they’ve lost all the astute moderates that could shift the party in a constructive direction. So they probably have little choice but to double down on populist bullshit thereby ceding the professional middle class to other parties and any path to govt.
Taken for granted…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-20/calwell-labor-backlash-over-gaza-islamophobia/104850500
Melbourne seat of Calwell highlights Labor woes as Gaza pain galvanises Muslim voters
Cat
“ Oh well, the happy chemicals in the chocolate (Theobromine) will soon kick in and I just won’t care! ”
——————————————————
There go my delusions of having a drug free diet 😀
Confessions
Absolutely I think there are opportunities for Australia during the trade.
Though for that reason we can’t leave it too late to change policy. If we do those disadvantaged by new US policy will have already found new suppliers. Trade changes a lot faster than alliances.
Taylormade @ 0848
Sorry but the Premier has every RIGHT to say what she did.
Richmond FC and the AFL have not read the room. This player commited a henious crime against an innocent person who could have been killed.
I’m sure the sentencing judge might have something to say later this week.
From X (twitter) this morning
“Newly published polling commissioned by the Greg Gregson institute for Fowler finds that support for Dai Le is on life support in key demographics. Insiders from the independent MP’s camp said there had been a sense of complacency in recent months, wrongly assuming the well funded Labor challenge would eventually die off, proving too big a task to conquer. Tu Le has declined to comment on these encouraging claims”
If true this would further validate the swing back to Labor that continues to rise.
Well, unlike Albo, Dutton and especially Littleproud who all back more fossil fuel extraction/exports, I will be supporting our food producers on the land with my vote.
We shouldn’t allow our parliament
to be corrupted by the fossil fuel cartel and allowing them to destroy our food producers future.
Cat,
I love Chocolate and I love mints, but I can’t stomach the 2 together.
“If Labor maintain or increase their majority and the Coalition lose more seats to independents I wonder if the Penny will drop, or if it would take another election for them to realise they actually need their ‘traditional’ blue ribbon seats to have any chance of forming government again.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
It’s looking like they are slowly heading towards irrelevancy. They need a leader with a bit of charisma, at the very least, and accept that human caused climate change denialism won’t cut it with the aus electorate. it’s only going to get worse for them with the success of the independents.
C@tmomma @ #54 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 9:02 am
Far too early for chocolate C@t!
Some classic symbolism here. The Liberal campaign truck got stuck under a rail overpass at Noble Park. Back on track? I hope this photo is visible.
https://x.com/OldTragic/status/1913435581956120932/photo/1
Australia should be exporting more food, not gas.
You mean this image Socrates?
Dutton and the Coalition have done an utterly superb job of convincing Australians that they are totally unfit to govern. Well done, give yourselves an Angus!
Red tulip hollow eggs the go.
Greens waiting for this demographic moment for decades it’s a pisser young males on mass now love Trump almost half said recent poll and are conservative in numbers.
Greens going nowhere and Teals going backwards me thinks.
Albanese is not a decent human he has forced thousands of women to stay with their abusers as they cannot get other housing because he preferred importing of international students and immigration to the safety of women.
Also sold out human rights to China so called decent Albanese ignores torture etcetc and supports a communist dictatorship that hates Democratic Australia.
Rorted Air travel on taxpayer via excess travel.
Oh and his racist quotas denying talented people roles because of their sex and race and the ignoring of real Aboriginal issues of not keeping kids in school and crime lacks decency also.
That’s not a truck, it’s a metaphor.
The broad church is dead. Buried. Cremated.
Good luck shrinking your appeal in an increasingly diverse electorate.
Alpha Zero @ #70 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 9:27 am
When they go low, we go … oh, wait … 🙂
Pegasus says:
“Taken for granted…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-20/calwell-labor-backlash-over-gaza-islamophobia/104850500
Melbourne seat of Calwell highlights Labor woes as Gaza pain galvanises Muslim voters”
——–
The only party that favours Hamas is the Greens. It is utterly impossible for them to form a government. So voters forsaking Labor because of their even-handed stance on Palestine, are like goldfish jumping out of their bowl – there is no joy for them in an LNP government.
The Greens need to actively intervene in this silliness to better inform this sector of the electorate, rather than exploiting ignorance and confusion.
Alpha Zero @ #65 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 9:19 am
It’s one of my weaknesses. I got hooked on After Dinner Mints yonks ago. 😀
Great, more incoherent nonsense from Pied Piper.
mj @ #74 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 9:31 am
Says the guy who advocates constantly for the party who can’t get above 12% of the vote. 😆
Thomas @ #78 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 9:40 am
He believes that stream of consciousness ranting from the Lunar Right of the political spectrum will bamboozle people.
Wrong.
Well knock me down with Balta punch.
Taylormade supports thugs who bash innocent people…
Jacinta supports the community not being punching bags for glorified footballers behaving badly…
While old Taylormade says give Jacinta what for…….how dare she speak out about theses thuggish footballers…..
You have to wonder about some peoples ……odd behaviour…..but then again it is Taylormerd……
One could say pity it wasnt you laying on the ground getting the shit belted out of you by the thug……..Richmond no better for playing him
C@tmomma @ #59 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 9:09 am
These people in western Sydney should ask their counterparts in the US who voted for Trump because he promised to end the war how they’re feeling about things now.
Alpha Zero
Yes that one. I agree with Bellweather. Its a metaphor 😉
Steven
100 percent.
The person that was assaulted is very lucky to be alive.
Dimma is the same person who said that he was done with coaching but immediately took up another offer to coach.
Yeah nah
Dimma the same guy who played up on his loyal partner with a work colleague and left said wife for her.
How dare premier of state have something to say. Sheesh
Morals smorals…..
Says the guy who advocates constantly for the party who can’t get above 12% of the vote.
—
Better 12% with principles than 30% chasing ghosts.
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 9:09 am
Speaking of political ginger groups, there’s an informative article today about the campaigns of the Independents in SW Sydney focusing on the seats of Mcmahon, Werriwa, Fowler, Blaxland and Watson:
Jihad Dib is worried. “There is a change,” he says. “You can feel the change.”
The state Labor minister, transformative education leader and the first NSW MP to take his oath on a Quran has never seen an election campaign like this.
It is personal, deeply divided and increasingly hostile. And it is being driven by sophisticated social media campaigns that have splintered communities, forced Labor ministers out of mosques and littered streets with corflutes stained blood-red.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hostile-and-deeply-divided-in-south-west-sydney-it-s-an-election-campaign-like-never-before-20250408-p5lq2l.html
”
Told ya.
mj @ #86 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 9:50 am
That’s called Copium, mj. 🙂
Dimma also always a happy chappy at press conferences after losing.
Ven, this is a very sensible comment to that article:
Tony Burke has been an outstanding MP for his electorate, It would be a sad loss to oust him from an effective government, one that actually supports Palestine, and has repeatedly condemned the violence (on both sides), just for some sort of ‘protest vote’.
Cost of living and mortgage stress are everywhere, and whilst the lower socio-economic areas may be under pressures, voting for an independent isn’t going to affect any meaningful change to that.
People in Watson, Fowler, Blaxland, McMahon and Werriwa need to think critically about their choices.
Re the Teal vote, I had a look at the last election’s result for North Sydney.
Fiddling around with the numbers, I estimate that:
– about 20% of 2019 Liberal voters switched to Teal in 2022
– about one third of 2019 Green voters switched to Teal in 2022
– about 10% of 2019 Labor voters switched to Teal in 2022
There were no local scandals to affect the result. Labor, Greens and Liberal had good candidates, the Liberal being incumbent. Most of the Labor and Greens voting Teal were probably voting tactically.
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-137.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Australian_federal_election#House_of_Representatives
Just to prove that truck photo wasn’t photoshopped here is a photo from another angle. Looks like they damaged slightly the underside of the overpass. Vandals as well as idiots.
So Premier Allan is told to be quiet by a former footy player. Reminds me of footy wife Bec Judd constantly criticising former Premier Andrews.
Dupree
Bec Judd has transferred her criticism onto Jacinta Allan.
Mind you the main crime in Victoria has been the tobacco wars which had its genesis in cigarette taxes etc. also the AFP obviously not doing a good job of stopping the shipments of illegal tobacco to the state.
Insofar as crime generally. Other states have crime issues as well.
The horrible crime just the other day in Sydney town. The mother kidnapped and burnt to death. Her young 8 year old son was bashed with a baseball bat to the head.
Lyons is no longer suspended for the Alp on sportsbet. $1.80 libs, 1.87 Alp.
I don’t know what caused this.
On the Alp majority odds , TAB and sportsbet have moved to similar odds compared to yesterday.
Player One @ #75 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 9:32 am
A new form of wedge politics?
Stabbing death overnight in South Yarra crowded footpath not unusual in Crime ridden multicultural all in Victoria even a charge at cops with knives incident earlier this week in North Melbourne and then nutty protests from lefties on why the person was killed.
Meanwhile corruption rife in its Police force crime kingpin Fat Tony a free man now decade before release as his lawyer was acting on behalf of Victoria police.
Tobacco stores over 1oo torched in Victoria mind you AFP useless as well under fed labor.
I’ve mentioned this previously. Someone known to me worked at channel 9 at same time as Bec Judd.
She was a very difficult character and was not beloved. That’s all I’ll say.
Victoria, I find Bec Judd such an annoyingly entitled voice! Political preaching from her Brighton mansion. Why such an opinionated voice from someone who has lived such a sheltered and privileged life?
Nice segue to fed Labor there, Pied Piper. Classic.