With early voting to begin on Tuesday, details of how-to-vote cards are starting to accumulate. So far as the Senate is concerned, the ABC is making life easy by gathering them in one place, while the eternally patient among you can view lower house how-to-vote cards for Labor candidates and Liberal candidates one by one on individual candidate pages. I tend to consider the subject not worth much of the news space devoted to it, because only major party voters follow them in substantial numbers, and in most cases they make the final count and their preferences are thus not distributed — though the number of exceptions is of course much higher than it used to be.
The Victorian Electoral Commission provided a rare insight into the matter when it made available full ballot paper data for seven seats at the 2022 state election, which is normally available only for upper house counts and in New South Wales, where its applicability is limited by optional preferential voting. The rate at which Labor votes exactly followed the how-to-vote card was consistently around 30% (helpfully, there were large numbers of candidates in these seats, so few are likely to arrived upon the requisite order by happenstance). The rate of adherence among Liberal voters varied widely according to the amount of effort the party was putting into a given seat — 57.0% in Brighton, where it was fighting off a teal independent, and 53.9% in Hawthorn, where it was successfully challenging a Labor incumbent, but only 29.4% in Preston, where the fight was between Labor and the Greens.
As for minor parties, whether the Greens actively preference Labor (as they are doing in every seat at this election) or offer no recommendation (which is as far as they ever go in repudiating Labor) makes about five points’ worth of difference to the percentage received by Labor, which is typically upwards of 80%. The impact is likely even less for smaller parties, which lack the volunteer base needed to disseminate how-to-vote cards on a large scale at polling places. As such, it would not pay to put too much weight on the decision by Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots to direct preferences against most sitting members. It was, indeed, news to me that his United Australia Party had done much the same in 2022, a fact related by Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group in a report in the News Corp papers yesterday. Out of 108 seats where the relevant data exists, I calculate that Labor got 41.7% of UAP preferences in seats where they had sitting members in 2022 and 35.5% where the Coalition did – the opposite of what would have been expected if their voters had been following the how-to-vote card in non-trivial numbers.
The same approach was adopted by One Nation during its early heyday at the Western Australian state election in 2001, in this case involving a party with genuine mass support and not simply the artefact of a multi-million dollar advertising campaign. This is sometimes said to have been a key factor in Labor’s unexpectedly clear-cut win at the election over the two-term Coalition government of Richard Court. To test this, I have just blown the dust of my print copy of the statistical returns from that elections and identified 24 seats where One Nation candidates were the last excluded in the preference count and their votes distributed between Labor and the Coalition. The distinction in this case was at least in the right direction, but nonetheless very modest — Labor averaged 53.2% of the preference transfers in Coalition-held seats and 49.7% in Labor-held seats. I assumed there would be a relationship between Labor’s vote share in a given seat and the strength of its preference flow — the likeliest explanation for the counter-intuitive finding just noted for the United Australia Party — but there was in fact little evidence of this.
So with all that in mind, the following points worth noting have emerged from news reportage, in lieu of my own lack of motivation to investigate the matter too deeply myself:
• Macnamara is the only seat where Labor is not directing preferences, which it is doing there at the initiative of incumbent Josh Burns in recognition of the local Jewish community’s concerns about the Greens. It is entirely possible that Burns will run third, in which case Labor preferences will come into play in the race between the Liberals and the Greens. Had it played out that way in 2022, the Greens would have won handily on a flood of Labor preferences, just as Burns easily defeated the Liberals after receiving fully 90.25% of the preferences from the third-placed Greens. Macnamara partly corresponds with the state seat of Brighton, where the behaviour of Labor preferences in 2022 was noted above. The 10,126 Labor votes in the seat included 3231 who followed the card, 5468 who favoured the Greens over the Liberals independently, and 1427 who had the Liberals ahead of the Greens. If those who followed the how-to-vote card had split in the same proportion as those who did, the flow of Labor preferences to the Greens would have fallen from 85.9% to 79.3%. Making a reasonable assumption that the Labor primary vote in the seat will be about 30%, this suggests Labor’s open ticket could contribute about 2% to a swing of upwards of 10% that the Liberals would need if it came down to them and the Greens.
• Next door in Goldstein, Liberal candidate Tim Wilson has teal incumbent Zoe Wilson second last ahead of the Greens, leaving her behind One Nation as well as Labor. The Age notes that Wilson said in 2019 that he had “a longstanding view that we should put One Nation and their despicable acolytes last”. While this may be of interest on an optical level, Wilson’s preferences are of little electoral consequence as he seems assured of making the final count.
• Conversely, the Liberals in Western Australia have put teal independent Kate Hulett ahead of Labor in third place in Fremantle (though here too they favour One Nation, who are second), a fairly remarkable turnaround on the March state election when they had her last but for the Greens.
• Labor are favouring Liberal over the Nationals in the three-cornered contest in the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel. However, an apparent improvement in Labor’s fortunes suggests the issue here is likely to be whether Nationals candidate Mia Davies or Liberal candidate Matt Moran makes it to the final count against Labor’s Trish Cook.
• The Liberals may have scotched the chances of independent Peter George by putting him behind Labor in Franklin. George is a former ABC journalist running with support from Climate 200 and in opposition to salmon farming, none of which would have endeared him to the Liberals. With 19-year-old Greens candidate Owen Fitzgerald having conceded he would be unable to sit in parliament due to a dual citizenship, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported the party was expected to throw its support behind George, who had already been endorsed by former party leader Bob Brown.
• Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent has interestingly opted to place teal independent Deb Leonard all-but-last in Monash. Leonard was presumably counting on getting ahead of him and benefiting from the strong preference flows that typically apply between independents.
• Paul Karp of the Financial Review reports Ziad Basyouny and Ahmed Ouf, who are respectively challenging Tony Burke in Watson and Jason Clare in Blaxland with support from The Muslim Vote, are directing preferences to Labor ahead of Liberal “after failing to strike a preference deal with the opposition”. The Liberal how-to-vote cards have them both dead last, which does not surprise, but will nonetheless make life difficult for them. A review article in the Sun-Herald today says Labor believes it could face swings in the seats of “more than 6%”, with Watson of greater concern.
I’m predicting that the Easter pause in campaigning will benefit Dutton, with a slight swing back to the Libs. Then when he inevitably puts his foot back in his mouth after the break it’ll swing harder back to Labor as he reinforces in the minds of voters just how inept he is.
Ven @ #620 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 11:25 pm
White House Post Mocks Supreme Court Ruling
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/18/2317223/-White-House-Post-Mocks-Supreme-Court-Ruling?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“This official White House X/Twitter post says it all: “he’s never coming back”— blatant open defiance of the Supreme Court.”
This is the actual post. It is sicker than you think. It seems to have been created by some 4chan weirdo for the lulz. But it’s from the official White House account:
Mostly Interested @ #1 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 6:28 am
Yeah all the religious people who saw Dutton at the church service. I’m surprised he hasn’t gotten Kirrilee to start wearing a cross around her neck. 😐
Dutton has unfortunately deepened his trust deficit and there’s no way back for the fourth choice leader of the Liberals surrounded by a remnant failed group of ex ministers.
Politicians are fond of saying “voters aren’t stupid”, however Dutton decided to “rub it in” and continues to do so.
Dutton and the “gravy train” have missed the boat despite the best efforts of probably the most despised career path of all, journalism, and it’s mostly foreign ownership.
For many voters, another term of Albanese and Labor provides an exciting chance for an exciting future.
Many voters intending to preference he Greens, the Teals and some others overwhelmingly see Labor as a better choice.
Australian voters are reluctant changing voters but enough have decided to ” bite the bullet”.
The retiring Antony Green on his well deserved victory lap, talks to Peter Fitzsimmons..
Fitz: Do you have a sneaking disappointment that this election feels like a singularly dull one in that, short of a stunning upset, it already feels fairly sure that Anthony Albanese will form a government of some kind – robbing election night of dramatic tension?
AG: A lot of people are saying that halfway through the election campaign, who weren’t saying that three weeks ago, which shows how quickly things can change. And it could change again. But it looks to me like Anthony Albanese has had a lot of media training over the summer. He’s sticking much closer to being “on message”, getting his lines right and has looked activated and interested.
Fitz: You’re saying the Coalition campaign looks amateurish?
AG:
Ummmm, it doesn’t look as well-organised as the Labor campaign. Where are the announcements? Where’s the detail? And the measure I always use is, who’s got the most interesting pictures?
Fitz: Really? Why do you say that, particularly?
AG: For one thing because they are the pictures that so much of the population is influenced by, those people who don’t follow the politics closely. And at the moment, Anthony Albanese looks happy and engaged every day in the stories, meeting interesting people while Peter Dutton doesn’t seem nearly as engaged. The Coalition campaign looks a little lifeless, as though preparing for something else.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/too-close-to-call-antony-green-s-surprising-verdict-on-his-last-federal-election-20250416-p5ls6x.html
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:55 am
Summary.. Dutton & Liberals look like dead wood infested with termites.
#weatheronPB
Simple elegance.
Cool comfortable attire,
dresses the pale world.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Pope Sends Deputy to Lecture Vance on Compassion at Vatican: https://www.thedailybeast.com/pope-snubs-vance-and-gets-deputy-to-lecture-vp-on-compassion/
Trump Posted a Photo of Abrego Garcia’s Hand With an MS-13 Knuckle Tattoo. Internet Sleuths Say It’s Photoshopped: https://www.latintimes.com/trump-photo-abrego-garcia-hand-ms-13-knuckle-tattoo-internet-sleuths-photoshopped-581226
SCOTUS Dramatically Stops Trump’s Brazen Immigrant Roundup: https://www.thedailybeast.com/scotus-dramatically-stops-trumps-brazen-immigrant-round-up/
After remarkable Supreme Court rebuke, Trump administration slams ‘meritless litigation’: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/supreme-court-trump-immigration-ruling-00299717
The Supreme Court signals it might be losing patience with Trump: https://www.vox.com/scotus/409736/supreme-court-order-pause-deportations-venezuela-el-salvador-aclu
Pentagon in Chaos After Hegseth Sheds Four Staffers in One Day: https://www.thedailybeast.com/pentagon-in-chaos-after-pete-hegseth-sheds-four-staffers-in-one-day/
Schumer calls for federal hate crime investigation into Shapiro arson attack: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/17/schumer-shapiro-arson-hate-crime-00295444
ACLU sues Trump administration for targeting international students: https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5257350-aclu-sues-trump-administration-international-students/
Zelensky says Russian attacks continuing after Putin announces ‘Easter truce’: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c934nprkqz3t
Canadians Reject Gavin Newsom’s Plea to Keep Visiting California Over Deportation Concerns: ‘I Don’t Want to Be Plucked Off the Street’: https://www.latintimes.com/canadians-reject-gavin-newsoms-plea-keep-visiting-california-over-deportation-concerns-i-dont-581157
Mexico’s Sheinbaum Counters Trump Deportations With Tens of Thousands of Jobs for Returned Citizens: https://www.latintimes.com/mexicos-sheinbaum-counters-trump-deportations-tens-thousands-jobs-returned-citizens-580902
India FTA talks with UK on the verge of conclusion: https://www.financialexpress.com/policy/economy-fta-talks-with-uk-on-the-verge-of-conclusion-3815183/
I guess the appropriate question today is if Dutton can resurrect his campaign, and potentially his political career, or if it’s all over?
Hard to imagine he can turn it around imo, especially with postal voters already voting and prepolls starting Tuesday
Apparently he has an announced to come on Defence, surely he wouldn’t be stupid enough to make that on ANZAC Day?
Thanks for the write up on HTV’s William. Going by it, maybe it’s time to ban them. A seemingly pointless exercise
Looking forward to seeing Adam on Insiders this morning, I wonder if him DJ’ing at Revolver will get a mention? Which DJ’ing pollie has the better set? lol
#25in25
Australia could look more like Europe after this election: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-20/minor-parties-election-outcome-/105100176
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:33 am
She is already wearing a millstone named Peter around her neck, do you want cause her further damage by adding a cross?
Can we expect to see polling showing the breakdown of already voted, like they had in the US?
Kronomex @ #NaN Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:26 am
😉
Labor in Monash How to vote card.The greens candidate Terrance Steele receiving no favours from Labor but Independant climate 200 Deb Leonard certainly is.
https://www.instagram.com/p/DIis_a3R95L/
Fascinating stat from the article shared by Holdenhillbilly
In 2004, 89 seats were decided on first preference. In 2022, that was only 15
Will that number drop again?
Politics in Australia is changing
#25in25
https://www.thedailybeast.com/jill-biden-aide-tells-her-and-joe-to-stay-away-from-politics/
Advice from advisers is 20 years late
‘Bordering on incredible’: Coalition under fire for planning to scrap Labor climate policies and offering none of its own.
The Coalition is refusing to say if it will introduce any policies to cut Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions in the next decade as it pledges to unwind most climate measures introduced under Labor.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/20/bordering-on-incredible-coalition-under-fire-for-planning-to-scrap-labor-climate-policies-and-offering-none-of-its-own
Looking forward to seeing Adam on Insiders this morning, I wonder if him DJ’ing at Revolver will get a mention? Which DJ’ing pollie has the better set? lol
If you’re looking forward to boilerplate Greens non-answers. I guess. 😐
And the best DJ? DJ Albo! 😀
In my experience from campaigning for the wilderness society in the 80s and 90s, where we recommended an ALP vote, but issued HTVs with tweaked numbering, about 2.3% of voters will follow such a card without thinking about it
Grime @ #NaN Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:39 am
Hewing to the middle ground where most of the voters are. Smart.
#Albo2025
Wonder how many more teals will get elected? Can’t see any of the current ones going back to the (il)Liberals this election.
Mexicanbeemer:”You spend more time on here than anyone but it’s not about me but your attitude makes it easy to put labor last and none of the 12 senate votes go to labor because that’s where your party puts the disadvantaged.”
You would have to be bonkers to think that the Coalition would give the disadvantaged a better deal than Labor.
Good morning all, noting that the drought deepens by the day in one part of Australia while vast areas are an inland sea in another part of Australia.
I can’t find much about Peter Dutton’s religious beliefs, if any. He has apparently elected to keep them private, which is fair enough. He appears to be either a conventional Christian (occasional church-goer) or a nominal Christian (attendance only on formal occasions). Until fairly recently, the majority of Australians would probably have been nominal Christians, although many are coming out as having no religion.
Hey Dutto,
Your Boss’ name is Gina.
And she made you have an awful day.
so why don’t you forget her,
And let me sing all your problems away.
Apart from winding back ALL of Labor’s climate actions, Dutton HAS got climate policies:
1. Walk away from the Paris Agreement.
2. Pretend that nuclear will do it all.
3. Encourage petrol burning.
4. Encourage diesel burning.
5. Encourage gas burning.
6. Set up fracking along the East Coast.
As if that is not all bad enough, some of his LNP Trogs have called for building coal-fired power stations and putting a cap on renewables investment.
The Teal wave was generated by a quite specific set of circumstances as perceived by Liberal voters: a personal loathing of Morrison, the Coalition’s misogyny, and the Coalition’s refusal to address climate change.
This election that troika has been replicated with Mr Nasty being particularly unpalatable to Teal voters, the Coalition’s misogyny is still there and so is the Coalition’s adamantine refusal to address climate change.
By way of comparison, Albanese is a decent human being, Labor has made huge strides for women and Labor has enacted a comprehensive suite of climate policies.
The electoral issue for Labor is that none of that troika will gain them a Teal seat.
Nevertheless, it is in Labor’s interest to replace Liberal MPs with Teal MPs.
So, once again, the Teals will mostly depend on tactical voting by Labor supporters to get across the line.
In a gambling nation, preference roulette matters.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/20/can-the-teal-appeal-hold-liberals-targeting-curtin-and-goldstein-argue-independent-wave-has-passed
Labor is the only government that has attempted to address the disability sector issues head on.
The NDIS is huge & will need tweaking over time just as with all huge initiatives.
The Coalition gave nothing but fragmented piecemeal organisations with limited grants and that was only after intense lobbying.
These organisations rarely had enough funding to get close to financial years end.
And those in the workforce were working under slave labour conditions in factories ran by charitable institutions with few exceptions.
NDIS assists with making mainstream jobs possible for a lot of disabled people with workplace modifications, equipment & or guidance.
The NDIS has also given the disabled confidence to independently approach companies in the knowledge they come with backup & support.
I am fed up with those who expect perfection from the ALP but were deathly silent about these issues under the Coalition.
Not too late to Dump Dutton
I don’t know how to post pics or I’d put one up of Adam DJ’ing at Revolver…
I hope that after the election, no matter the result i.e. majority of minority Labor government, their supporters realise that it’s most likely they’ll need to work with the Greens to get things done given, if nothing else, they will have a massive say in the Senate
If Albanese can’t find a way to do that, he should make way for someone who can imo
Put the country before personal political hatreds
#25in25
DJ Bandt:
DJ Bandt surprised the Revolver bar staff with a set chock-full of current club hits.
His playlist included Jamie xx’s Baddy On the Floor and Steve Mac & Nick Reach Up’s Do It, as well as classic bangers including Vengaboys’ We Like to Party! (Venga Bus) and AC/DC’s TNT.
The crowd was very enthusiastic, with some posing for selfies with Bandt after his set.
Not a word was spoken about housing, renewable energy or Medicare for dental (although someone was spotted dancing behind him with what looked like the giant red toothbrush he has used as a prop in recent TV appearances).
In fact, it was an entirely politics-free evening.
Now that is an Easter miracle.
Morning all and happy easter. My dreams of sleeping in were dashed by hungry cats.
I agree the break might help Dutton at least halt Labor’s momentum. But I find it hard to see how the Libs can turn it around.
Dutton’s announcement of no climate change policy is non-credible.
Even Dutton’s promised announcement of a defense policy is doubtful. On the ABC’s Global Roaming podcast yesterday there were defense spokespeople from each party including Zoe Daniels for teals. The host Geraldine Doogue asked the obvious question of the Liberals guy: if your defense policy is so good why wait so long announcing it? Why would you wait till after the start of pre-poll voting?
Morning all. We thought the grift and corruption was bad during Trump 1.0, but here we are 3 months into his 2nd term and already we can fill a couple of pages with links to all the ways he is already capitalising for his own personal wealth and that of his family.
From the Land of the Grift – Kleptocracy & Oligarchy Edition
Are you a corporation which wants Trump’s attention or maybe a little ‘go slow’ on regulations or perhaps some friendly policies for your business? Simple, sponsor the White House’s annual Easter Egg Roll! No grift here!
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/white-house-egg-roll-sponsors-00299714
History is littered with authoritarian leaders brought down not by ideology, but by the weight of their own greed. Trump’s corruption, personal, political, and financial, may yet be the Achilles’ heel in an otherwise resilient strongman persona.
https://www.easttexasnews.com/stories/the-grift-and-the-fall,35150
A number of prominent Republicans, including several former members of the first Trump administration, have signed an open letter decrying the president for using his power to punish two former administration officials who criticized him, likening his actions to those of a “royal despot.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/19/us/politics/trump-letter-ty-cobb.html
The ultimate Trump grift: selling American citizenship to the highest bidder. What could go wrong? Just look at the people charged with putting the scheme in place: Marko Elez, the software engineer who once boasted that he was “racist before it was cool” and that he wants “a eugenic immigration policy;” as well as Edward Coristine, the 19-year-old former intern who reportedly worked for a cybercrime ring and goes by the online moniker Big Balls. Good luck America.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/trumps-gold-card-immigration-doge
Trump said he was watching the bond markets as the reason for pausing tariffs. Why? Because Trump’s investment portfolio shows he holds significantly more bonds than stocks. Was this declared at the time? Of course not. Grifting in plain sight.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/18/us/politics/trump-bonds-tariffs.html
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia, disclosed on Monday that she had purchased between tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of stock on April 8 and 9, the day before and the day of President Trump’s announcement that he was pausing a sweeping set of global tariffs, a pivot that sent the stock market soaring out of a sizable slump.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/us/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-bought-stock-trump-tariffs-pause.html
President Donald Trump’s 9:37 AM call for supporters to buy stocks—followed just hours later by his announcement of a so-called “pause” on his market-crushing tariffs—generated billions in new wealth for those positioned to profit.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/giant-grift-calls-for-trump-insider-trading-probe-surge-over-corruption-questions/ar-AA1CGwMQ
Trump administration asks the IRS to review the tax audits of two of Trump’s friends, presumably to overturn any adverse finding. Nice having friends in high places, huh?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/17/lindell-irs-audit/
America’s oligarchs are petrified. They contributed millions to Trump’s inauguration. Many invested heavily in his campaign. They lavished praise on the new President and have supported his every move – in order to benefit from his promised big tax cut.
But the chaos he’s unleashed on the world economy is causing many of them to go public with their worries. Yet many of them still won’t speak publicly.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/trump-news/2025/04/16/american-oligarchy-trump
Warner Bros. asked Trump’s orbit how to improve their relationship. Trump’s people pointed to the $40 million Bezos paid for Melania’s doc and suggested giving Don Jr a Discovery hunting show and more pro-Trump voices on CNN
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/warner-bros-ceo-david-zaslav-hollywood-mogul.html
What was behind the reason Trump played golf with the Saudis instead of receive returning dead soldiers or meet with Congress after he announced wide-sweeping tariffs? Not what, but who writes Anne Applebaum in an illuminating insight into the conga line of foreign and domestic business interests lining up for their pound of flesh from Trump.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/04/trump-kleptocracy-autocracy-inc/682281/
In an unprecedented abuse of presidential power, Donald Trump is dismantling federal cryptocurrency oversight while building a sprawling family crypto empire worth billions. How is this not the biggest story leading every news bulletin and front page?!
https://www.citationneeded.news/trump-crypto-empire/
Grifts, memes, disruption, vengeful billionaires—to understand Donald Trump, there’s much to learn from those who cover the blockchain.
https://www.cjr.org/analysis/trump-coindesk-and-lessons-of-crypto-media.php
More on the Trump crypto grift and his unwinding of Biden era regulatory measures to prevent the destabilisation of traditional finance.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/18/opinion/crypto-sec-trump-stablecoin-memecoin.html
And a deeper dive into the Trump crypto corruption featuring the author of Citation Needed substack. A great potted summary of her article which breaks down the grift and why she says this is the most flagrant violation of presidential authority in American history.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwCG9Ra87Xs
As President Donald Trump’s enormous new tariffs on China rippled through global supply chains, Apple CEO Tim Cook went to work behind the scenes. Tariffs for some but not others as it’s all a case of who you know and getting access to the Trump administration.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/17/apple-iphone-tariff-exemption-trump/
It wasn’t only Apple that scored concessions, but metals and minerals that Elon Musk and other manufacturers need were also quietly exempted. Musk of course doesn’t need to make a special trip to Mar a Lago, he can simply walk into the White House and meet directly with the president, such is his access to the decision making.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2025/04/16/trumps-huge-tariff-exemption-grift/
How America can avoid becoming Russia. Political pressure must be brought to bear through the courts, the press, and the states, but also applied to legislators while they still have any power left.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/04/america-russia-trump-putin/682473/
Donald Trump and the favouritism grift. All policy is personal with Donald if you’re willing to kiss his ring and grease his palms.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/trump-and-the-favoritism-grift
Trump is treating the crypto industry like an open source ATM. Again, this should be a bigger story than it currently is.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-crypto-stablecoin-conflict-of-interest.html
Another insightful piece by Anne Applebaum as she looks at Hungary under Orban and concludes that that is America’s future under Trump. All the signs are there from shutting down the press, cowing universities, replacing public servants with animated loyalists, and changed the constitution to advantage his own electoral prospects. Trump has yet to achieve the latter, but I’m sure it’s on the cards.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/05/viktor-orban-hungary-maga-corruption/682111/
“Americans won’t let Trump establish an oligarchic form of government!”, rails Bernie Sanders, who clearly hasn’t realised that Republicans not only control all 3 branches of government plus the courts, but are happy to stand idly by while Trump does exactly this. Anyway, kudos to the Bern for taking a principled stand.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/05/viktor-orban-hungary-maga-corruption/682111/
They’ve invested millions in getting Donald Trump to the White House and his cronies into Congress. Now, they’re reaping the return on their investment. With Elon Musk at his side, Trump is handing them even more power over the government. Meet the tech and fossil fuel oligarchs behind Trump and Deputy President Musk.
https://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2025/04/01/musk-trump-tech-oil-oligarchs/
Thanks fess and Holden for today’s round up.
Happy Easter to all.
Alpha Zero
“In fact, it was an entirely politics-free evening.“
Bandt’s smartest political decision in months.
mj 757am
I also feel the Liberals aren’t getting any Teal seats back, and may even lose a few to Teals and other independents (Wannon, Cowper maybe)
The Teals are the ‘lost tribe’ of Liberal moderates. Banished with the Peacocks and Turnbulls of this world.
Which in the end may not have been the most brilliant strategy!!
Thanks Alpha Zero
Sounds like Adam nailed it
Vengaboys – We like to Party! (The Vengabus)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Zbi0XmGtMw
He was wearing a white cap that had “vote” printed on it.
Pegasus
Sometimes less is more. Sounds like Bandt got the right tone for Easter long weekend..
Not his first gig….
Greens Leader Adam Bandt woos young voters with debut DJ gig hosted by Abbie Chatfield
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/greens-leader-adam-bandt-to-woo-young-voters-with-debut-dj-gig-hosted-by-abbie-chatfield/news-story/f1074a9874538be2273da70306311a9e
“Greens Leader Adam Bandt has attempted to woo young voters with a sold out debut DJ performance alongside influencer Abbie Chatfield.
Mr Bandt hit the decks in front of about 500 attendees at Fitzroy’s beloved The Night Cat on Sunday afternoon.
:::
Chatfield, who recently interviewed Mr Bandt on her podcast It’s A Lot, has also leant her star power to the event, which sold out in under 24 hours.
“We wanted a fun and accessible way of talking with young people about politics,” said Mr Bandt.
“The rental crisis, climate crisis, and cost of living crisis, are all political. They’re all impacting young people but a lot of people feel disconnected from politics, and I feel like politics isn’t necessarily addressing the issues that they care about.”
:::
This year’s federal election will the be first where Gen Z and millennial voters will outnumber their Baby Boomer peers, about 7.7 million to 5.8m million, according to Australian Electoral Commission data.
Mr Bandt says the cohort will have an “incredibly powerful vote at this election”.
Thank you, ‘fess! Much appreciated. 🙂
The NDIS has also given the disabled confidence to independently approach companies in the knowledge they come with backup & support.
I am fed up with those who expect perfection from the ALP but were deathly silent about these issues under the Coalition.
+1 million.
The Age 19/04
Triple premiership coach Damien Hardwick has taken a swipe at Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan, saying she should stick to running the state instead of making remarks about Noah Balta’s playing availability.
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Get stuck into her Dimma.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 7:51 am
‘Bordering on incredible’: Coalition under fire for planning to scrap Labor climate policies and offering none of its own.
The Coalition is refusing to say if it will introduce any policies to cut Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions in the next decade as it pledges to unwind most climate measures introduced under Labor.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/20/bordering-on-incredible-coalition-under-fire-for-planning-to-scrap-labor-climate-policies-and-offering-none-of-its-own
”
I hope Green voters and Greens political party see, who their political enemy is.
It is not ALP as Bob Brown tried to portray by directing Greens political party to have open ticket at least in Tasmania especially after their 19 year old Greens candidate made a fool of himself by not qualifying due to s44 issue.
This is the third reason i.e continue with Renewal energy policies after uncertain international scene and a Trumpian opposition reasons, to give ALP majority seats on 3rd May federal election.
Thanks to Confessions and Holden Hillbilly for the news roundups. The news from USA these days is not much better than from Russia and worse than from China.
This only reinforces the accuracy of this article from Laura Tingle yesterday:
“ Whoever wins the federal election on May 3 will face a fork in the road for Australia’s future”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-19/united-states-china-tariff-trade-war-federal-election-future/105189008
Albo may prefer to do this cautiously after talking to allies, but some change in foreign policy is needed vis a vis the USA. He hinted at this in his appearance on The Rest is Politics podcast yesterday. Even friendly countries like UK are looking for a new direction.
Yeah Rocket, Bradfield is another. They’ll keep voting other while MAGAphiles are in charge.
Young voters to save the day
It was sad to hear the other day that The Night Cat was having to fundraise to fight a noise complaint. It’s been a very long time since I’ve been there but I hope they win out
https://beat.com.au/the-night-cat-battles-for-survival-amid-sound-compliance-crunch/
It is a pity that Gen Z males are so conservative. Will they be enough to deliver enough outer suburban seats to Dutton for the Liberals to form a minority government with recalcitrant Teals?
For months labor luvvies defence on here was that voters do not make their mind up until the last two weeks when they focus on the election.
So all this hubris on here that it’s all over is hypocritical as we are now only into “the last two weeks”
Vance met the pope !
Yes will reverse my vote to libs as labor federally is woke,globalist at the expense of ordinary Aussies.Aka population massive increase causing homelessness amongst locals ,rental stress and housing building failure by Labor government.Debt through the roof,stuff all economic growth for 3 years and selling out to China.Quotas a disaster also.