With early voting to begin on Tuesday, details of how-to-vote cards are starting to accumulate. So far as the Senate is concerned, the ABC is making life easy by gathering them in one place, while the eternally patient among you can view lower house how-to-vote cards for Labor candidates and Liberal candidates one by one on individual candidate pages. I tend to consider the subject not worth much of the news space devoted to it, because only major party voters follow them in substantial numbers, and in most cases they make the final count and their preferences are thus not distributed — though the number of exceptions is of course much higher than it used to be.
The Victorian Electoral Commission provided a rare insight into the matter when it made available full ballot paper data for seven seats at the 2022 state election, which is normally available only for upper house counts and in New South Wales, where its applicability is limited by optional preferential voting. The rate at which Labor votes exactly followed the how-to-vote card was consistently around 30% (helpfully, there were large numbers of candidates in these seats, so few are likely to arrived upon the requisite order by happenstance). The rate of adherence among Liberal voters varied widely according to the amount of effort the party was putting into a given seat — 57.0% in Brighton, where it was fighting off a teal independent, and 53.9% in Hawthorn, where it was successfully challenging a Labor incumbent, but only 29.4% in Preston, where the fight was between Labor and the Greens.
As for minor parties, whether the Greens actively preference Labor (as they are doing in every seat at this election) or offer no recommendation (which is as far as they ever go in repudiating Labor) makes about five points’ worth of difference to the percentage received by Labor, which is typically upwards of 80%. The impact is likely even less for smaller parties, which lack the volunteer base needed to disseminate how-to-vote cards on a large scale at polling places. As such, it would not pay to put too much weight on the decision by Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots to direct preferences against most sitting members. It was, indeed, news to me that his United Australia Party had done much the same in 2022, a fact related by Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group in a report in the News Corp papers yesterday. Out of 108 seats where the relevant data exists, I calculate that Labor got 41.7% of UAP preferences in seats where they had sitting members in 2022 and 35.5% where the Coalition did – the opposite of what would have been expected if their voters had been following the how-to-vote card in non-trivial numbers.
The same approach was adopted by One Nation during its early heyday at the Western Australian state election in 2001, in this case involving a party with genuine mass support and not simply the artefact of a multi-million dollar advertising campaign. This is sometimes said to have been a key factor in Labor’s unexpectedly clear-cut win at the election over the two-term Coalition government of Richard Court. To test this, I have just blown the dust of my print copy of the statistical returns from that elections and identified 24 seats where One Nation candidates were the last excluded in the preference count and their votes distributed between Labor and the Coalition. The distinction in this case was at least in the right direction, but nonetheless very modest — Labor averaged 53.2% of the preference transfers in Coalition-held seats and 49.7% in Labor-held seats. I assumed there would be a relationship between Labor’s vote share in a given seat and the strength of its preference flow — the likeliest explanation for the counter-intuitive finding just noted for the United Australia Party — but there was in fact little evidence of this.
So with all that in mind, the following points worth noting have emerged from news reportage, in lieu of my own lack of motivation to investigate the matter too deeply myself:
• Macnamara is the only seat where Labor is not directing preferences, which it is doing there at the initiative of incumbent Josh Burns in recognition of the local Jewish community’s concerns about the Greens. It is entirely possible that Burns will run third, in which case Labor preferences will come into play in the race between the Liberals and the Greens. Had it played out that way in 2022, the Greens would have won handily on a flood of Labor preferences, just as Burns easily defeated the Liberals after receiving fully 90.25% of the preferences from the third-placed Greens. Macnamara partly corresponds with the state seat of Brighton, where the behaviour of Labor preferences in 2022 was noted above. The 10,126 Labor votes in the seat included 3231 who followed the card, 5468 who favoured the Greens over the Liberals independently, and 1427 who had the Liberals ahead of the Greens. If those who followed the how-to-vote card had split in the same proportion as those who did, the flow of Labor preferences to the Greens would have fallen from 85.9% to 79.3%. Making a reasonable assumption that the Labor primary vote in the seat will be about 30%, this suggests Labor’s open ticket could contribute about 2% to a swing of upwards of 10% that the Liberals would need if it came down to them and the Greens.
• Next door in Goldstein, Liberal candidate Tim Wilson has teal incumbent Zoe Wilson second last ahead of the Greens, leaving her behind One Nation as well as Labor. The Age notes that Wilson said in 2019 that he had “a longstanding view that we should put One Nation and their despicable acolytes last”. While this may be of interest on an optical level, Wilson’s preferences are of little electoral consequence as he seems assured of making the final count.
• Conversely, the Liberals in Western Australia have put teal independent Kate Hulett ahead of Labor in third place in Fremantle (though here too they favour One Nation, who are second), a fairly remarkable turnaround on the March state election when they had her last but for the Greens.
• Labor are favouring Liberal over the Nationals in the three-cornered contest in the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel. However, an apparent improvement in Labor’s fortunes suggests the issue here is likely to be whether Nationals candidate Mia Davies or Liberal candidate Matt Moran makes it to the final count against Labor’s Trish Cook.
• The Liberals may have scotched the chances of independent Peter George by putting him behind Labor in Franklin. George is a former ABC journalist running with support from Climate 200 and in opposition to salmon farming, none of which would have endeared him to the Liberals. With 19-year-old Greens candidate Owen Fitzgerald having conceded he would be unable to sit in parliament due to a dual citizenship, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reported the party was expected to throw its support behind George, who had already been endorsed by former party leader Bob Brown.
• Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent has interestingly opted to place teal independent Deb Leonard all-but-last in Monash. Leonard was presumably counting on getting ahead of him and benefiting from the strong preference flows that typically apply between independents.
• Paul Karp of the Financial Review reports Ziad Basyouny and Ahmed Ouf, who are respectively challenging Tony Burke in Watson and Jason Clare in Blaxland with support from The Muslim Vote, are directing preferences to Labor ahead of Liberal “after failing to strike a preference deal with the opposition”. The Liberal how-to-vote cards have them both dead last, which does not surprise, but will nonetheless make life difficult for them. A review article in the Sun-Herald today says Labor believes it could face swings in the seats of “more than 6%”, with Watson of greater concern.
Griff,
“How is your slogan “25in25””
What part of… that is not my slogan do you not understand. I have not appended it to any of my posts.
But it’s good to see how energised some of you are about it.
Bizzcansays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:31 pm
JIMBOBsays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 6:06 pm
Bizzcan, you Boomer? You own investment property? You have kids? You care about them and any future Grandchildren? You believe in man made climate change or all of the above is bullshit? Vote for your Grandchildren. Ateast 25 in 25. Transparency and democracy can be returned. Or vote to protect the money you have made.
______________________
Thats nice, where does the Greens policy of collapsing Australia’s financial and retirement savings systems, crushing investment, and lowering living standards over the long term fit into this? Is the plan decarbonisation through destitution?
I think i prefer Labors plan of making aussie workers the winners in getting to net zero, rather than the detached privileged inner city policy of “letting us eat cake”. …
__________________
Meh, tired old Murdoch style memes like this are boring.
And there it is again: the horseshoe theory in action.
Spence @ #444 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:07 pm
This equals a nightmare scenario, to be sure.
PHON may not have been as overt in their support for Trumpian policies and politics but they are the OG when it comes to the Donald. I still remember that sting of Pauline and Ashby getting caught seeking guidance from the NRA and Repugs in the US. She’s just more savvy about keeping it on the down low.
I think Bob Katter would eat his hat if he was be included in any group with the Greens. And that is a big hat.
Actually I doubt any of the rest of the Crossbench would be happy for the Greens to be speaking on their behalf.
yabba @ #446 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:09 pm
Thanks, yabba. So, not only Robertson.
Is it going to be a Newspoll ‘Wow’ moment….
“It’s not the Horseshoe Theory though”.
It is actually. You’re just ignoring the bit that is inconvenient to your views. Clearly extremists hold some things in common, just as clearly do centrists. As a theory it has little to no support but if people are going to trot it out then it’s worth pointing that in a horseshoe centrists are closer to each other than the extremes are to each other. As I said, political convergence is a fairly commonly accepted argument these days. We’re all neoliberals etc and so on.
”Have you seen the Liberal HTV in Dobell? Where’s PHON?”
Answer found by matching this: https://nswliberal.org.au/brendan-small/how-to-vote
With this: https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/HR.htm?s=Dobell
Spoiler alert: One Nation is in second spot.
In most seats, Liberals are preferencing right-wing Christians, then One Nation, then other DRWNJs, then others, Labor second last, Greens last.
There is no religious candidate in Dobell, so One Nation gets second spot.
Maybe the Liberals think it’s a winning formula for them? Vote Liberal. Get Pauline Hanson.
Has anyone seen the Liberal Party Senate HTV guidance?
Whatever happened to Ghost who votes?
52/48 Labor. Labor up 0.5 Coalition unchanged on primaries. Lots of turd polishing though.
One Nation was not in second place in any seats in 2022. Although they were very close in Maranoa, but Litteproud had won on primaries. Their chances of a seat in the lower house is minimal.
Confessions says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 7:10 pm
“but they willing accept all comers. Palmer, Hanson etc.”
And there it is again: the horseshoe theory in action.
— ——
And there you are misrepresenting and hocking a bogus theory.
Latest Newspoll
exclusive4 minutes ago
Newspoll: Labor lifts as leaders lose support
Peter Dutton is judged better placed to defend the nation and grow the economy but is failing to convince voters on cost-of-living pressures and housing, as Labor’s primary vote lifts and support for both leaders falls.
Simon Benson
“And there it is again: the horseshoe theory in action.”
Centrists preferencing Liberals over Greens is also the horseshoe theory in action. Although to be fair whichever shape you want to use centrists end up near each other.
Quite a sane discussion, IMO:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/20/can-the-teal-appeal-hold-liberals-targeting-curtin-and-goldstein-argue-independent-wave-has-passed
New thread.
Liberal Party Senate guidance, check any Liberal Candidate, e.g. https://nswliberal.org.au/brendan-small/how-to-vote
In Summary
1 Liberal
2, 3 Right-wing Christians
4. One Nation
5. Libertarian odds and sods
6. Jacqui Lambi people
Donald Dutton @ #454 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 7:13 pm
yet again you are wrong in your depiction of the Horseshoe Theory. It is not about the centre of the horseshoe. What it is about is how close each end of a horseshoe is to the other and how this translates to movements in politics recently.
You can make some cockamamie allusion to the centre of a horseshoe all you want but that’s not the point.
The twatt that’s one of Trump chief economic advisers..
Kevin Allen Hassett….
He coauthored Dow 36,000, published in 1999, which argued that the stock market was about to have a massive swing upward and would reach 36,000 by 2004.[1] Shortly thereafter, the dot-com bubble burst, causing a massive decline in stock market prices. The Dow did not reach 36,000 until late 2021.[1]
Hassett has worked at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.[2] He was John McCain’s chief economic adviser in the 2000 presidential primaries, as well as economic adviser to the 2004 campaign of George W. Bush and 2008 campaign of McCain. He was an economic adviser on Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign.
Just incase anyone thinks Trump is an adoration.. he’s MAINSTREAM REPUBLICAN
Franklin, Flinders, MacPherson, McMahon, Monash, Couple QLD smokies, Grey, Sturt. Fowler wasn’t on radar last election thus another like Fowler due to ALP stuffing up. HQ knows best. And maybe Greens in Cooper after ALP own goal. Think that’s enough to get to at least 25 in 25.
One explanation could be that Trump’s actions (tariffs, slashing government programs etc) have not yet hit people’s hip pockets to any great extent. It takes time for the tariffs to affect prices at the retail level. Trump’s great big tax cuts for the rich and virtually nothing for the average person have not yet been legislated.
Another possible explanation is the disgust expressed in other countries (Canada, Mexico, China, Denmark etc) at Trump’s actions and their retaliation against the US. Many Americans have been conditioned to believe that they are somehow special and cannot believe that foreigners would dare to regard their president as a common thug. So they respond by indicating support for what Trump is doing.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 7:09 pm
Griff,
“How is your slogan “25in25””
What part of… that is not my slogan do you not understand. I have not appended it to any of my posts.
But it’s good to see how energised some of you are about it.
_________
If you are restricting your advocacy to the shakeup of the duopoly only via election of progressive candidates, then that is alright by me.
There is a Newspoll
Mostly Interested @ #416 Sunday, April 20th, 2025 – 6:52 pm
Kudos. I nearly drowned trying to do that – though not on the Franklin. Afterwards I stuck to safer sports – like alpinism in NZ.
”
BKsays:
Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 7:14 pm
52/48 Labor. Labor up 0.5 Coalition unchanged on primaries. Lots of turd polishing though.
”
Thumb on scale?
Oh give it up Ven the Red Eagle Patriot is not yet upon us (even if they did turn out to be the most accurate pollster … sob)