Quite a bit of polling and polling-adjacent news to relate:
• The News Corp papers have another wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research poll tracking 20 marginal seats that once again records substantial movement in favour of Labor, whose two-party lead in seats that collectively broke around 51-49 in Labor’s favour at the 2022 election is now at 54.5-45.5, out from 52.5-47.5 last week. The report relates that Labor’s primary vote is steady since last week and the Coalition is down two to 34% — a graphic showing both on 35% and the Greens on 13% combines results from this week and last week. The poll also finds 51% accepting Labor’s position that Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan “will cost $600 billion and he will need to make cuts to pay for it”, with only 13% disagreeing; 45% agreeing that “Labor’s reckless spending is driving up inflation”, with 29% disagreeing; 42% agreeing that “Peter Dutton will cut Medicare if he is elected”, with 26% disagreeing; 36% rating that Labor has “the best election promises for them” compared with 26% for the Coalition; and 37% agreeing that “Australia is poorer, less safe and more divided because of Anthony Albanese”, and 36% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1000.
• The report accompanying the poll relates a 51-49 Coalition lead from the small-sample Victorian component of the poll, encompassing Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite and Menzies, suggesting a collective 2.5% swing to the Coalition. James Campbell of News Corp relates conflicting claims on internal polling from the state: Coalition sources claim “their tracking poll is holding up”, whereas Labor claims to be ahead in all its seats except Aston, “which they haven’t bothered to look at”.
• The Australian reports Labor strategists believe they are “edging closer to claiming a majority government victory on the back of a recovery in New South Wales and Victoria”. There is, however, a seemingly shared expectation that the Liberals will win Gilmore and recover the by-election loss of Aston, and likely gain Bennelong from Labor, Ryan from the Greens and Monash from Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent. Labor is “understood to have its nose ahead in a tight three-cornered contest” in Greens-held Brisbane, but faces a “tough fight” against the Greens to hold Wills. Teal independent challenges to the Liberals in Bradfield and Wannon are “expected to go down to the wire”. Sources from both sides said they did not expect Labor to make gains from the LNP in Queensland.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian has another surprising set of poll numbers from conservative outfit Compass, this time from Wentworth, where Liberal candidate Roanne Knox is said to be leading teal incumbent Allegra Spender 47% to 28%, with Labor on 15% and the Greens on 10%. The poll, conducted by SMS from a sample of 627 at a time undisclosed, also finds the highest priority issue in the distinctly liberal electorate is “national security and immigration”. The aforementioned report in The Australian on party strategists’ view of the overall situation said the Liberals were “hoping to win back the teal seats of Curtin, Goldstein and Kooyong”, but made no mention of Wentworth.
• Tom Rabe of the Financial Review reports “pollsters and sources from both major parties” rate the Liberals favourites in the three-cornered contest for the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel, although some Labor sources believe they could still manage what they acknowledge would be an upset.
• Speaking on ABC Adelaide’s breakfast radio show on Thursday (listen from 3:12:30), Seven Network state politics reporter Mike Smithson related that a Liberal source had told him the party had “almost given up on Boothby” and was “now sandbagging Sturt”.
• Nine Newspapers has published audio and SMS messages from surveying conducted by uComms for Climate 200 that critics characterise as “push polling”. The Australian quoted a Climate 200 spokesperson earlier in the campaign saying results from its “message-tested vote intentions” questions were “used for internal campaign reasons only and not shared with the media”.
• Erin Clarke of the e61 Institute offers a finding that males aged between 15 to 24 have lately defied a long-term across-the-board trend of declining “belief in traditional gender norms”, to the extent of holding more conservative views than all male age cohorts other than 65-plus. The finding suggests it might be instructive for pollsters to start providing breakdowns that separate the age cohorts by gender. Peter Lewis of Essential Research helpfully provided such data last month in The Guardian, finding that men aged 18-to-34 gave Peter Dutton a net approval rating of plus 19%, compared with minus 20% among young women and minus 5% overall, and an average positive rating for Donald Trump of 47% across five different policy areas, compared with 26% among young women and 24% overall.
mj says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 5:25 pm
The Liberal party is no longer worthy of the name
They have become ever more Reactionary. I reckon they will continue to be shaped that way….to owe more to their entrapment by the US Republicans than to their connections to this community. It’s possible the Teals will gradually evolve into an alternative to Labor. They need an organisation and a common program. They could displace the Reactionaries. The rural populists would have to choose between permanent irrelevance and a compromise with the urban bourgeoisie.
If, as is very likely, the Reactionaries lose most of their seats in this and the next election, the Teal will have a chance to fill the centre-Right void.
Alternatively, Labor will be returned with large majorities for some time to come…serving as a bulwark against the extremist escapism of the Reactionaries.
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 5:52 pm
The Greens have previously said they would be prepared to negotiate with the Coalition
——
The Greens have never expressed willingness to support a Coalition govt at a federal level, why would they now when they are completely at odds with them.
Albo’s Labor despises the Greens.
Will seek bipartisanship deals with the Libs instead.
Just look at the NACC deal, the election funding deal and the union administration deal as examples.
Confessions
Or Sanders – which I didn’t think at the time
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 5:54 pm
I think there may be some surprises.
Very hard to sustain the current level.
Dear old desperate Integrity.
Savva wrote that the post-election knives are already out for Dutton, with Angus Taylor reportedly positioning for a post-election challenge.
It’s too soon to be guessing at the next Liberal leader while the current one still has a shot at being the next PM, but of all of them in a hypothetical sitch, Taylor makes the most sense.
Vote Labor and get more dirty deals with the Libs.
RR:
No, it was never going to be Sanders. Reportedly Obama did a deal with the Clintons in which Biden was talked down from running, asking him to sit out 2016.
The Greens have done preference deals with the Liberals.
They routinely sided with Dutton in delaying key legislation.
It is not such a big step for them to form a Coalition with the Liberals.
They have been in Coalition at state level.
Why deny it?
‘Confessions says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:00 pm
Savva wrote that the post-election knives are already out for Dutton, with Angus Taylor reportedly positioning for a post-election challenge.
It’s too soon to be guessing at the next Liberal leader while the current one still has a shot at being the next PM, but of all of them in a hypothetical sitch, Taylor makes the most sense.’
=============================
What happened to the illegal clearing allegations involving a company of which Taylor was a part owner?
The Teal remind me in some ways of classical Liberals of the Victorian era…counter-conservatives who preceded the rise of Labor: urban, affluent, educated, modernist, non-sectarian and non-reactionary. They were home to Deakin and others, and were successful reformers up to the point where working class interests clashed with theirs.
Kirsdarke:
Jason Wood’s been around longer than that – he first won in 2004 but lost in 2010. Probably time he got put out to pasture.
In all that time, the one thing I know about him is his “genetically modified orgasms” blooper in parliament. I still look it up every now and then for a laugh.
Confessions @ #398 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 5:24 pm
Yep, that’s one counterfactual I genuinely believe. He was popular (even the left, despite their gaslighting on this, liked him), a good communicator and, as VP, would’ve ran on being a continuation of the Obama years which, contrary to opinions online, was a popular era for Americans.
The Greens initially voted against the housing fund as did the Coalition but they did so to try and improve it while the Coalition wanted to kill it outright.
It is deliberately misleading to suggest there is any chance they will support a Coalition govt.
leftieBrawler,
Lib kids doing the same thing in Robertson today in Robertson near the Spike Milligan Bridge in Woy Woy. No one was honking. I gave them a thumbs down. 🙂
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:05 pm
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:03 pm
‘Confessions says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:00 pm
Savva wrote that the post-election knives are already out for Dutton, with Angus Taylor reportedly positioning for a post-election challenge.
It hardly matters who the Reactionaries choose to lead them. They are collectively estranged from this community. They campaign to and for each other, mouthing their ideological certainties. They pose as agents of radical change and will be overwhelmingly rejected by the Australian electorate.
Said who?
‘I hate, I mean really hate, fart-arsing around. I insist on getting things done. And yet that is what government specialises in. It specialises in fart-arsing. In stopping anything from happening, or insisting that the longest route is taken. I do delivery.’
They went the way of Scomo’s ‘on water matters’ and Turnbull’s $500m
giftgrant to that company to deal with coral bleaching on the GBR.Nicholas @ 5.05
That extended “analysis” (Jono Sri?) is unmitigated garbage.
The idea that Labor voters are too stupid to number more than one box unless they are given a how to vote card specifying every number is not only insulting to Labor voters but totally unsupported by any evidence of Federal elections where only one box is numbered and votes are informal for that reason.
I get that there are differing views as to how voters will react because Labor does not direct preferences in this electorate – personally I think they will vote exactly how they want to – but to suggest an intelligence level where a simple instruction to number every box is beyond them is just plain idiot-ville.
Albanese is live on The Rest is Politics podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/live/Z_6BFOtWdHI
Wat:
I saw polling the other day that showed the Obamas are still the most popular political figures in America. That’s both Obamas, not just Barack.
I reckon it’s this fact that goes a long way towards explaining how the rightwing in America lost its mind and its values. They’re still having a decade-long dummy spit that the country’s first Black president is among its most popular, that popularity prevailing today.
There are people seeking escape from DV into social housing who have had the relevant housing construction delayed by the Greens.
But this is OK because the Greens were posturing on housing to show they cared. They really cared.
One of them owns four investment properties.
Another lives in an architect designed purpose built inner city home in a leafy suburb.
Labor builds.
The Liberals wreck.
The Greens posture and delay.
Sorry for the typo. I’m tired after a long day doing the local Easter Sale.
I completed my postal vote today and did not follow the HTV card for Labor. I put the Greens second last, ahead only of One Nation.
Thanks for sharing Mick.
mj says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:07 pm
The Greens initially voted against the housing fund as did the Coalition but they did so to try and improve it while the Coalition wanted to kill it outright.
________________________________
The Greens did it to impose a radically different policy on Labor, exercising its best parasitic tendencies. It only gave up in the end because Labor’s refusal to let the Greens manipulate the Government when they had not earned the authority to run the country threatened to starve them of relevancy.
Dutton may hold onto the leadership by default. I mean who can they really turn to? The cupboard is bare and there is also the question of the nuclear policy. Who would support that now other than Dutton? They have painted themselves into a corner.
if he was still in the party ian goodenough would be a laydown misere for leader surely
mj says:
“It is deliberately misleading to suggest there is any chance the
will support a Coalition govt.”
—————
It is similarly misleading to suggest they would support a Labor government. Just look at the past three years.
” A plague o’ both your houses!”
Confessions, yep it’s also telling that during the period from 2000 to present when elections have been close and polarised, he’s the only guy that managed to pull off two massive wins. Was his record perfect? No. But you can’t deny his popularity, even to this day. It’s vexing to see commentators online (and I’m talking about those who vote Democrat) acting like he’s some relic from yesteryear who the Democratic Party have to distance themselves from.
Boerwar, even by your low standards…
For one obvious reason: because it isn’t true.
After the 1996 Tasmanian election (which you are referring to), the Liberals lost their majority and Labor refused to even try to form government. Therefore the Liberals stayed in power as a rather shaky minority government that went on to shrink Tas parliament (with Labor support) to scuttle the Greens. That isn’t a coalition.
If you want to deliberately lie about things like that, expect to be called out as a liar when you do so.
Bystander says:
“Dutton may hold onto the leadership by default. I mean who can they really turn to? ”
——-
Susssssan Ley?
Senator Paterson would be a poor choice as a replacement for Mr Dutton, because he’s had virtually no work experience outside politics. A classic MOP(S) Act brat.
B. S. Fairman says Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 5:15 pm
And are exempt from insider trading laws.
Mick @ #420 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 6:12 pm
Wow! The Betoota Advocate guys are pushing him hard! 😀
Caretaker of the Fossils: Beach approval takes government’s gas and coal tally to 17
https://michaelwest.com.au/beach-approval-takes-governments-gas-and-coal-tally-to-17/
“The government might be in caretaker mode, but that hasn’t stopped federal agencies from quietly giving new fossil fuel projects the green light. Zacharias Szumer reports.
The Albanese government’s fossil fuel approval tally has risen to 17 after Australia’s offshore oil and gas regulator approved project in Victoria.”
Desperate times c@t, desperate times!.
I wonder how long until one of them is flattened by a B double.
Disappointing to see the climate 200 is going full steam ahead in Gilmore by getting her slick quality TV ads in prime time now.
Climate 200 want Constance to win ?.
So Rex Douglas has gone the full fruit loop today by implying he’ll preference the libs ahead of Labor. It’s too bad Rex couldn’t afford the nightly rate for a deluxe valley view villa at the Constance election night do that P1 is hosting. He’d have had a royal old time with all the well manicured , sharply dressed and urbane young liberal lads that form the heart and soul of the Gilmore Libs. Going round after round of half shot cosmos and compressed air nangs
barney @ #428 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 6:21 pm
Because he would never say anything wrong…because he would never say anything? 😆
New York Times
Live Updates: Supreme Court, for Now, Blocks Deportations of Venezuelan Migrants
Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito Jr. dissented. A group had been scheduled to be flown out of the country, according to people familiar with the matter.
**********
Thomas and Alito are irredeemable
leftieBrawler,
Rex Douglas has been showing his blue petticoat for a little while now.
The Greens did it to impose a radically different policy on Labor, exercising its best parasitic tendencies. It only gave up in the end because Labor’s refusal to let the Greens manipulate the Government when they had not earned the authority to run the country threatened to starve them of relevancy.
——-
The Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate. It is their duty to advocate for those who voted for them. Labor does not have a right to their votes, it’s called negotiating.
Rocket Rocket @ #439 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 6:30 pm
I keep wondering if Trump will do what the Dems were too gutless to do and force an increase in Supreme Court numbers through so that he can guarantee wins all the time for his Administration. Starting with appointing that judicial lapdog, Aileen Cannon.
Pedant @ #434 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 6:24 pm
Bring it on.
mj @ #441 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 6:30 pm
There are greater numbers of Labor MPs in the Senate. They are the government and The Greens should realise that more often. It’s called negotiating. 😐
Whatever happened to commenter Barney in Saigon and sundry other Asian cities?
Did I miss something?
The PB Labor diehards always have, and always will, expect the Greens to be a rubber stamp for Labor.
The duopoly doesn’t countenance transparency and accountability.
It is such an anti-democratic stance.
My read is the Greens have mellowed a bit after flying too close to the sun with that housing debate. It seemed like they forgot that their modus operandi is to steal voters from Labor so slagging Labor off constantly, blocking reform and nonsensically saying things like “Labor and Liberal are the same” wasn’t going to work for them electorally. It really turned people off. We saw this play out in the Qld state election where they won none of their target seats and lost their heartland seat of South Brisbane. Now you can see much of the Greens messaging is about stopping Dutton instead of whatever they were doing for a year or two there. The notion they would side with the Coalition is absolute nonsense.
There are greater numbers of Labor MPs in the Senate. They are the government and The Greens should realise that more often. It’s called negotiating.
—–
Get back to me when Labor have a majority of members in the Senate.
mj says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:30 pm
The Greens did it to impose a radically different policy on Labor, exercising its best parasitic tendencies. It only gave up in the end because Labor’s refusal to let the Greens manipulate the Government when they had not earned the authority to run the country threatened to starve them of relevancy.
——-
The Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate. It is their duty to advocate for those who voted for them. Labor does not have a right to their votes, it’s called negotiating.
__________________________________________
They only hold the balance of power depending on how other Senators vote on an issue. It is undeniable that they have the right to exercise that balance of power, but to whine and squeal when the government, with many more senators, refuses to buckle to their parasitic demands is just absurd and shows what a bunch of hypocrites the Greens are.