Quite a bit of polling and polling-adjacent news to relate:
• The News Corp papers have another wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research poll tracking 20 marginal seats that once again records substantial movement in favour of Labor, whose two-party lead in seats that collectively broke around 51-49 in Labor’s favour at the 2022 election is now at 54.5-45.5, out from 52.5-47.5 last week. The report relates that Labor’s primary vote is steady since last week and the Coalition is down two to 34% — a graphic showing both on 35% and the Greens on 13% combines results from this week and last week. The poll also finds 51% accepting Labor’s position that Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan “will cost $600 billion and he will need to make cuts to pay for it”, with only 13% disagreeing; 45% agreeing that “Labor’s reckless spending is driving up inflation”, with 29% disagreeing; 42% agreeing that “Peter Dutton will cut Medicare if he is elected”, with 26% disagreeing; 36% rating that Labor has “the best election promises for them” compared with 26% for the Coalition; and 37% agreeing that “Australia is poorer, less safe and more divided because of Anthony Albanese”, and 36% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1000.
• The report accompanying the poll relates a 51-49 Coalition lead from the small-sample Victorian component of the poll, encompassing Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite and Menzies, suggesting a collective 2.5% swing to the Coalition. James Campbell of News Corp relates conflicting claims on internal polling from the state: Coalition sources claim “their tracking poll is holding up”, whereas Labor claims to be ahead in all its seats except Aston, “which they haven’t bothered to look at”.
• The Australian reports Labor strategists believe they are “edging closer to claiming a majority government victory on the back of a recovery in New South Wales and Victoria”. There is, however, a seemingly shared expectation that the Liberals will win Gilmore and recover the by-election loss of Aston, and likely gain Bennelong from Labor, Ryan from the Greens and Monash from Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent. Labor is “understood to have its nose ahead in a tight three-cornered contest” in Greens-held Brisbane, but faces a “tough fight” against the Greens to hold Wills. Teal independent challenges to the Liberals in Bradfield and Wannon are “expected to go down to the wire”. Sources from both sides said they did not expect Labor to make gains from the LNP in Queensland.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian has another surprising set of poll numbers from conservative outfit Compass, this time from Wentworth, where Liberal candidate Roanne Knox is said to be leading teal incumbent Allegra Spender 47% to 28%, with Labor on 15% and the Greens on 10%. The poll, conducted by SMS from a sample of 627 at a time undisclosed, also finds the highest priority issue in the distinctly liberal electorate is “national security and immigration”. The aforementioned report in The Australian on party strategists’ view of the overall situation said the Liberals were “hoping to win back the teal seats of Curtin, Goldstein and Kooyong”, but made no mention of Wentworth.
• Tom Rabe of the Financial Review reports “pollsters and sources from both major parties” rate the Liberals favourites in the three-cornered contest for the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel, although some Labor sources believe they could still manage what they acknowledge would be an upset.
• Speaking on ABC Adelaide’s breakfast radio show on Thursday (listen from 3:12:30), Seven Network state politics reporter Mike Smithson related that a Liberal source had told him the party had “almost given up on Boothby” and was “now sandbagging Sturt”.
• Nine Newspapers has published audio and SMS messages from surveying conducted by uComms for Climate 200 that critics characterise as “push polling”. The Australian quoted a Climate 200 spokesperson earlier in the campaign saying results from its “message-tested vote intentions” questions were “used for internal campaign reasons only and not shared with the media”.
• Erin Clarke of the e61 Institute offers a finding that males aged between 15 to 24 have lately defied a long-term across-the-board trend of declining “belief in traditional gender norms”, to the extent of holding more conservative views than all male age cohorts other than 65-plus. The finding suggests it might be instructive for pollsters to start providing breakdowns that separate the age cohorts by gender. Peter Lewis of Essential Research helpfully provided such data last month in The Guardian, finding that men aged 18-to-34 gave Peter Dutton a net approval rating of plus 19%, compared with minus 20% among young women and minus 5% overall, and an average positive rating for Donald Trump of 47% across five different policy areas, compared with 26% among young women and 24% overall.
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:33 pm
Are you incapable of finding a job for yourself, Mexicanbeemer? Maybe, because all you do is sit here all day and whinge about the government not finding you one
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You spend more time on here than anyone but it’s not about me but your attitude makes it easy to put labor last and none of the 12 senate votes go to labor because that’s where your party puts the disadvantaged.
Nicholas says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:00 pm
The thing is Labor are trying to defeat the Reactionaries. The Greens are trying to thwart Labor. In this contest, the Greens ally themselves with the Reactionaries, as they so frequently do. They add ballast to the Reactionary fortifications. Is there any point whatsoever in discussing ‘policy’ with a stonewall? None. Labor will do the heavy lifting alone, as they invariably do. Meanwhile, take your policies to voters. See what they make of them. When you win a majority in the House you can implement them.
Boerwar, its late, time for bed.
Speaking of Lars and painted, perfumed gigolos in the tradition of Rene Rivkin’s former chauffeurs could you imagine the shock horror look on larsie’s face when instead it was Nath there waiting for him outside of the hyde park side of st James station
Mexicanbeemer, dont disadvantage Labor, and the people who genuinely need a Labor Government, because of c@tmomma. She is not representative of Labor.
nathsays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:21 pm
What happened to Steve Davis? Did he get the chop?
_____________________
He was posting rumours gleaned from Facebook about Duttons conduct as a police officer which upset management a while back.
friendlyjordies type bullshit stuff.
A stern warning was given, but I don’t think he actually got the chop.
Maybe just taking a break
Well said wranslide. A lot of the people here who are derided as anti labor are more accurately just anti stooge.
wranslide says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:40 pm
Mexicanbeemer, dont disadvantage Labor, and the people who genuinely need a Labor Government, because of c@tmomma. She is not representative of Labor.
_________________________________________
Nobody here who supports Labor is representative of Labor – not you, not me, not C@t, not BW, not HWP.
The whole point of a major party is to encompass different specific interests within a broad umbrella or, to use Howard’s words, a broad church.
Unfortunately the issue with affordable housing is that it’s currently a very thoroughly tangled fishing line, which requires delicate moves to untangle it, with people looming overhead that either want to tangle it more or cut it loose altogether and damn the consequences.
It’s something that needs more than 3 years to solve. And if Labor wins this time then they could start making some serious untangling moves, especially when a lot of 5-year contracts secured under Morrison’s government are up for renewal and they can make serious changes.
———
Thanks Kirsdarke you’re always thoughtful which I wish other posters were. I don’t really see where Labor is aiming to resolve this if they could they’d probably win majority govt. Albo is a nice and stable guy but lacks any vision he will win by not being Dutton without convincing anyone of his leadership qualities.
Late?
It’s not even 9pm.
What is this place, Del Boca Vista?
Henry if you get to the club house before 430pm you are guaranteed a parking spot right at the entrance and a nice little early diners discount
Mick says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:12 pm
Albanese is live on The Rest is Politics podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/live/Z_6BFOtWdHI
Well worth the hour to listen to Albo’s views – on one of the leading global political podcasts.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:37 pm
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:33 pm
Are you incapable of finding a job for yourself, Mexicanbeemer? Maybe, because all you do is sit here all day and whinge about the government not finding you one
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You spend more time on here than anyone but it’s not about me but your attitude makes it easy to put labor last and none of the 12 senate votes go to labor because that’s where your party puts the disadvantaged.
====================================================
If looking after people on welfare is your number one priority, I agree the Greens have stronger policies in this area than Labor. However, to think the LNP would be better than Labor in this area I think is delusional.
Nath, didn’t Lars tell you he had returned as JIMBOB?
No more oiled up Greek nude wrestling for you two!
Hope the slippages were accidental.
mj @ #559 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 8:48 pm
Thanks for that. Yeah, I really don’t know what can be done, given it was 11 years of Howard’s government that got us into this mess, followed by 6 years of Labor focusing on other things like keeping out of a recession during the Global Financial Crisis, followed by another 9 years of Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison that cemented Howard’s crap into place.
Perhaps opportunities will arise out of unexpected places if Labor wins this election? I’d prefer that to Dutton’s plan in simultaneously keeping the housing bubble inflating while destroying superannuation.
I see Michael Sukkar and Adam Bandt are the guest on Insiders tomorrow.
Sadly won’t be able to watch. Perhaps they can compare notes on branch stacking in Melbourne?
Sprocket_ I’m often intrigued by you.
In all these years you’ve kept civil with me despite all the historical and often baseless grievances levelled at me.
Are you a fellow NSW right man? I was always impressed with just how bobby was able to run a tight ship for so long and very much like his hero Wran.
Been Theresays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:53 pm
nathsays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 7:48 pm
Lars will return when Lars is ready. Hopefully oiled up and his muscles absolutely glistening.
Nath, didn’t Lars tell you he had returned as JIMBOB?
No more oiled up Greek nude wrestling for you two!
Hope the slippages were accidental.
===================================================
.
I think it is the pig that gets oiled with these hillbilly types. Jim-Bob certainly sounds like someone straight out of Deliverance.
LB
Yes, a life long admirer of Wran and Carr as the pinnacle of Labor governance, for the benefit of the people and the planet. And social justice.
The programme currently on the ABC is instructive
Cost of living is nothing new
We ALL live within our means and doing so is not a cost of living crisis
It is life and why over your working life you seek out promotion and increases in salary
The programme is about equal pay for women, which alleviates the pressures of living within your means impacting on household incomes as it does
Sproket_ can you not extend the love to the champion of Fowler Keneally? What about red hot go Rees?
Re mj @8:48.
”Unfortunately the issue with affordable housing is that it’s currently a very thoroughly tangled fishing line, which requires delicate moves to untangle it, with people looming overhead that either want to tangle it more or cut it loose altogether and damn the consequences.”
That’s a great analogy.
Thanks for that. Yeah, I really don’t know what can be done, given it was 11 years of Howard’s government that got us into this mess, followed by 6 years of Labor focusing on other things like keeping out of a recession during the Global Financial Crisis, followed by another 9 years of Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison that cemented Howard’s crap into place.
Perhaps opportunities will arise out of unexpected places if Labor wins this election? I’d prefer that to Dutton’s plan in simultaneously keeping the housing bubble inflating while destroying superannuation.
————
It’s true the mess was started in the Howard era they were keen to encourage short term gains to the detriment of anyone that followed. If Labor cant react to these concerns they will fail as will the opposition or government. Albanese is not a smart man.
Wranslide
My thoughts on Kristina Keneally – https://youtu.be/CGFdfDI-e18?si=9zsZ7GMN1c1Fdw1W
Well said wranslide. A lot of the people here who are derided as anti labor are more accurately just anti stooge.
@Nath
Nath your used stooge line many times to get away from a debate. Player One and Rex Douglas use the same trick with the ‘partisans’ and ‘bi-partisans’. It’s effectively playing the man not the ball. We all have bias on here, but just because you support the teals or the greens doesn’t make you the most impartial.
Entropy @ #563 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 8:53 pm
Mexicanbeemer,
I would prefer it if you didn’t misrepresent the amount of time I spend here. Instead of just spitefully saying something about me maybe you could check yourself, before you wreck yourself with another mistruth. The latest one is that no one spends more time here than me. You must have missed the hour, after hour, after hour, after hour, that I wasn’t here today once I had presented the daily news and views roundup. Which is more than you have ever done. But I bet you were here. Again. And will be all night. Again. With your constant whining about what Labor haven’t done for the disadvantaged. Hint: it’s called a parliamentary democracy and the people vote in elections for the policies they want. Which they haven’t voted for as far as Labor implementing a full employment policy for the disabled. And, be honest, your inane utopian dream of full employment for the disabled and disadvantaged would end up looking like nothing so much as the sheltered workshops of the past. Because, being honest again, something you have trouble with, this nirvana for the disabled and disadvantaged can never be achieved because there is simply a large number of the disabled and disadvantaged that are unemployable.
But you’ll never admit that.
Sprocket,
What did you think of Kim Carr’s latest offering?
Inspiring Australia?
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/inspiring-australia/
“Public confidence and trust in public institutions and expert opinion is at an all-time low. Consequently, party political campaigns have concentrated on shoring up base support, rather than on persuading voters that the political players have a long-term plan for the future of the country.
Cynicism and apathy are reinforced by an ever-expanding list of campaign promises unsupported by a broader case for reform.”
I love it when C@t quotes Ice Cube.
mj @ #572 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 9:10 pm
Yup, I’m in agreement with you there. If Labor wins in 2 weeks then they really do need to at least start making moves to address the housing affordability crisis.
There’s also the fact that most other countries in the OECD are suffering from this crisis, but if anyone can come through with a breakthrough solution, I’d put my bets with Australian Labor.
That’s one of the best things of a party that is conciliatory to both the business and working class, compromises can and will be made that can make effective changes. And after seeing her performance in the Housing debate, I reckon Clare O’Neil would be ideal for making such deals.
The key to untangling the housing affordability knots will involve serious disadvantage to those who benefit from the problem. They’ll squeal like stuck pigs, claiming that effective measures would Crash the economy, cause mass unemployment, etc etc. They have very loud voices. At some stage we’ll have to take them on.
Mexican beemer perhaps c@t has or hasn’t disclosed her personal circumstances to you at some time?.
C@t- a tertiary qualified pharmacist who did every thing right in life to live a normal and prosperous one.
C@t’s husband died decades ago from a pretty rare and aggressive cancer leaving her to raise a family on her own. As I understand it she a
is also the primary carer for her adult son which is a significant commitment on her part.
All things considered if c@t chooses to seek out respite and satisfaction by being a significant contributor to this community who are you, I or anyone to question or judge her for that?.
As they say, ‘everything is great until it’s not’. Things like this can happen to anyone at anytime.
C@T
Mexicanbeemer,
I would prefer it if you didn’t misrepresent the amount of time I spend here. Instead of just spitefully saying something about me maybe you could check yourself, before you wreck yourself with another mistruth. The latest one is that no one spends more time here than me. You must have missed the hour, after hour, after hour, after hour, that I wasn’t here today once I had presented the daily news and views roundup. Which is more than you have ever done. But I bet you were here. Again. And will be all night. Again. With your constant whining about what Labor haven’t done for the disadvantaged. Hint: it’s called a parliamentary democracy and the people vote in elections for the policies they want. Which they haven’t voted for as far as Labor implementing a full employment policy for the disabled. And, be honest, your inane utopian dream of full employment for the disabled and disadvantaged would end up looking like nothing so much as the sheltered workshops of the past. Because, being honest again, something you have trouble with, this nirvana for the disabled and disadvantaged can never be achieved because there is simply a large number of the disabled and disadvantaged that are unemployable.
But you’ll never admit that.
———————
You talk about mistruths then go misrepresenting what i’ve said even after explaining it because never said anything about full employment for disabled people but you keep misrepresenting it but i’m not on here all the time.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 9:13 pm
Well said wranslide. A lot of the people here who are derided as anti labor are more accurately just anti stooge.
I have several hats. I’ve been a stooge. I’m currently a hack. I’m overtly partisan. I have a sideline as woke. I like to think of myself as offering a public service to the polemically challenged…a metaphor for the incurably loyal.
Albo is objectively shit enjoy the next 3 years. Albo is a dumbarse
wranslide @ #555 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 8:40 pm
Still as slimy as ever wranslide.
Its called democracy Ven. Not everyone has the same political views as you.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 9:13 pm
Well said wranslide. A lot of the people here who are derided as anti labor are more accurately just anti stooge.
I have several hats. I’ve been a stooge. I’m currently a hack. I’m overtly partisan. I have a sideline as woke. I like to think of myself as offering a public service to the polemically challenged…a metaphor for the incurably loyal.
@Hack, woke, Partisan, formerly Stooge
I didn’t make that comment nath did.
leftieBrawlersays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 9:23 pm
Mexican beemer perhaps c@t has or hasn’t disclosed her personal circumstances to you at some time?.
C@t- a tertiary qualified pharmacist who did every thing right in life to live a normal and prosperous one.
C@t’s husband died decades ago from a pretty rare and aggressive cancer leaving her to raise a family on her own. As I understand it she a
is also the primary carer for her adult son which is a significant commitment on her part.
All things considered if c@t chooses to seek out respite and satisfaction by being a significant contributor to this community who are you, I or anyone to question or judge her for that?.
As they say, ‘everything is great until it’s not’. Things like this can happen to anyone at anytime.
—————————————
I don’t judge how many times someone posts here everyday and C@T does a good job with the morning updates but she reckons i’m here all the time complaining about her party.
RBA 10 Year data shows that in the year 2000 we owed $355 billion to our home mortgage lenders
In 2010 we owed $1.226 TRILLION
This data significantly contributed to the Rudd government response to the GFC, realising the catastrophic impact of falling house prices courtesy of that sub prime lending (and as we saw elsewhere where people just walked away from their homes collapsing banks)
The question being did house prices drive up our mortgage debt or did our mortgage debt drive up house prices
And this is why there is no quick and easy solution – the solution being wage increases exceeding the rate of inflation for the foreseeable
And that supply meets the market
leftieBrawler @ #581 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 9:23 pm
Exactly. And the main reason I had to give up on my career was due to my second child being born profoundly disabled and needing his mother to care for him. This was before the NDIS. He’s still with me, and while I’m not needed 24/7 any more I have thus devoted my intellect, for what it’s worth, to this forum. I also have an intimate understanding of the Disabled Community. Hence I find it absolutely offensive for Mexicanbeemer to constantly piss on Labor for their supposed lack of action wrt the Disability Royal Commission Recommendations and the fact that Mexicanbeemer believes that more disabled people should be in jobs than already are. Whilst at one and the same time absolutely misrepresenting the reasons why the government is unable to make it so. To the extent that he is now rabbiting on about not going to vote for the only political party in Australia who have ever done anything significant for the Disabled. Because The Greens sure can’t. They’ll never be in government.
Pegasus says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 9:17 pm
Sprocket,
What did you think of Kim Carr’s latest offering?
Inspiring Australia?
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/inspiring-australia/
“Public confidence and trust in public institutions and expert opinion is at an all-time low.
The Reactionaries have been waging war against the institutions, rules and norms of the democratic order for 40 or 50 years. They want to disrupt and discredit democracy, which is a constant threat to privilege. It would be really great if the populist assemblies – among whom the Greens are prominent – were to desist from joining the Reactionaries. This would help.
The US Supreme Court, which is slanted 6-3 towards the conservatives, has blocked further deportations of immigrants under a wartime law from the end of the 1700s.
The Trump administration has been deporting migrants under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which had previously been used three times before: during the War of 1812, World War I and World War II. The law was designed to give America’s president the power to deport the nationals of a nation with which the United States is at war.
Today the Supreme Court court ordered that the law not be used, regarding migrants being held in northern Texas, “until further order of this court”.
mj @ #583 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 9:26 pm
Please don’t be like that? By all means, vote however you want, for or against Labor, but the world is currently in a state of chaos.
God-King-Emperor-Presidentrump is in power in the USA until either January 20 2029 or until he dies, whichever comes first. There’s nothing we can do that can change that.
What we can change is how we respond to this changing world. I highly doubt Prime Minister Dutton would be worth much if he gets to ascend to that office, other than Trump making him kneel down so he can pat his head and giggle “It’s like he’s made from rubber, how crazy is that?”
Albanese’s foreign policy meanwhile has been a proven success. We’ve repaired the damage from other Pacific nations from the previous Coalition government for a start.
NIMBYs fact is they do not want their burbs turned into sardineville.
Fed labor knows this restriction but just crams millions in with students etc over three years.
The answer is to reduce demand as labor has failed in not only that but in building houses as well.
So reduce student numbers etc.But labor will not do that they lie but latest abs stats show record int students in aus this year.
Newspoll tomorrow night hopefully.
It can’t be overstated how insane the new http://covid.gov/ page is: https://www.whitehouse.gov/lab-leak-true-origins-of-covid-19/
Anyone watching the tigers gold coast game? Yikes.
On a note outside of the conversation theme of today. I read today in Riverina that two of the conservative leaning independents that are campaigning on a full throated “kick out the Nats” ( ie the utterly ineffectual Michael McCormack) have their HTV with the Nats before ALP. Seems that backing up your words with actions is more difficult than presumed. Even when not handcuffed by a party (wink).
Yeah, compared to the current crop, Peacock was okay, though he did place a fair bit of time on his appearance. I much preferred him to Howard, who laid the foundations for what the Tory Party is
today – mean, sneaky, with little or no empathy.
@Mavis
I will say though in this political ad Andrew Peacock does seem to be punching down on the unemployed. So yeah ummmm he was still a Liberal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3n04o1X-Tvw
C@T
Exactly. And the main reason I had to give up on my career was due to my second child being born profoundly disabled and needing his mother to care for him. This was before the NDIS. He’s still with me, and while I’m not needed 24/7 any more I have thus devoted my intellect, for what it’s worth, to this forum. I also have an intimate understanding of the Disabled Community. Hence I find it absolutely offensive for Mexicanbeemer to constantly piss on Labor for their supposed lack of action wrt the Disability Royal Commission Recommendations and the fact that Mexicanbeemer believes that more disabled people should be in jobs than already are. Whilst at one and the same time absolutely misrepresenting the reasons why the government is unable to make it so. To the extent that he is now rabbiting on about not going to vote for the only political party in Australia who have ever done anything significant for the Disabled. Because The Greens sure can’t. They’ll never be in government.
—————————
Never said people with profound disabilities should be made go to work but they should get a much higher DSP maybe double it but no policy from Albo and many in the disability community are unhappy with labor’s response to the royal commission but don’t hear it is because the disability community doesn’t have a Sam Mostyn type person in the media talking about it.
All good Mexican. Argue her till the cows come home about all and sundry.
But when people start on the ‘get a life your here all the time’ line on people like c@t who see it as an extension of her community and sphere it can be a tad nasty and below the belt.
I had a falling out with Andrew E for this exact reason- years ago he tried to belittle c@t about being a lowly booth captain- this from a wealthy Sydney barrister who claims to be a comrade and champion of a specific industry union decades ago. He should have known better considering being in full understanding of the disparity of wealth and security between himself and c@t.
Take Lars- he had a mutually enjoyable relationship of abuse and mutual disgust with c@t. And yes while he called her the occasional name or made thinly vailed inferences about her I can’t recall him ever getting overly personal and grubby with references to her personal circumstances in comparison to his.