Quite a bit of polling and polling-adjacent news to relate:
• The News Corp papers have another wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research poll tracking 20 marginal seats that once again records substantial movement in favour of Labor, whose two-party lead in seats that collectively broke around 51-49 in Labor’s favour at the 2022 election is now at 54.5-45.5, out from 52.5-47.5 last week. The report relates that Labor’s primary vote is steady since last week and the Coalition is down two to 34% — a graphic showing both on 35% and the Greens on 13% combines results from this week and last week. The poll also finds 51% accepting Labor’s position that Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan “will cost $600 billion and he will need to make cuts to pay for it”, with only 13% disagreeing; 45% agreeing that “Labor’s reckless spending is driving up inflation”, with 29% disagreeing; 42% agreeing that “Peter Dutton will cut Medicare if he is elected”, with 26% disagreeing; 36% rating that Labor has “the best election promises for them” compared with 26% for the Coalition; and 37% agreeing that “Australia is poorer, less safe and more divided because of Anthony Albanese”, and 36% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1000.
• The report accompanying the poll relates a 51-49 Coalition lead from the small-sample Victorian component of the poll, encompassing Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite and Menzies, suggesting a collective 2.5% swing to the Coalition. James Campbell of News Corp relates conflicting claims on internal polling from the state: Coalition sources claim “their tracking poll is holding up”, whereas Labor claims to be ahead in all its seats except Aston, “which they haven’t bothered to look at”.
• The Australian reports Labor strategists believe they are “edging closer to claiming a majority government victory on the back of a recovery in New South Wales and Victoria”. There is, however, a seemingly shared expectation that the Liberals will win Gilmore and recover the by-election loss of Aston, and likely gain Bennelong from Labor, Ryan from the Greens and Monash from Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent. Labor is “understood to have its nose ahead in a tight three-cornered contest” in Greens-held Brisbane, but faces a “tough fight” against the Greens to hold Wills. Teal independent challenges to the Liberals in Bradfield and Wannon are “expected to go down to the wire”. Sources from both sides said they did not expect Labor to make gains from the LNP in Queensland.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian has another surprising set of poll numbers from conservative outfit Compass, this time from Wentworth, where Liberal candidate Roanne Knox is said to be leading teal incumbent Allegra Spender 47% to 28%, with Labor on 15% and the Greens on 10%. The poll, conducted by SMS from a sample of 627 at a time undisclosed, also finds the highest priority issue in the distinctly liberal electorate is “national security and immigration”. The aforementioned report in The Australian on party strategists’ view of the overall situation said the Liberals were “hoping to win back the teal seats of Curtin, Goldstein and Kooyong”, but made no mention of Wentworth.
• Tom Rabe of the Financial Review reports “pollsters and sources from both major parties” rate the Liberals favourites in the three-cornered contest for the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel, although some Labor sources believe they could still manage what they acknowledge would be an upset.
• Speaking on ABC Adelaide’s breakfast radio show on Thursday (listen from 3:12:30), Seven Network state politics reporter Mike Smithson related that a Liberal source had told him the party had “almost given up on Boothby” and was “now sandbagging Sturt”.
• Nine Newspapers has published audio and SMS messages from surveying conducted by uComms for Climate 200 that critics characterise as “push polling”. The Australian quoted a Climate 200 spokesperson earlier in the campaign saying results from its “message-tested vote intentions” questions were “used for internal campaign reasons only and not shared with the media”.
• Erin Clarke of the e61 Institute offers a finding that males aged between 15 to 24 have lately defied a long-term across-the-board trend of declining “belief in traditional gender norms”, to the extent of holding more conservative views than all male age cohorts other than 65-plus. The finding suggests it might be instructive for pollsters to start providing breakdowns that separate the age cohorts by gender. Peter Lewis of Essential Research helpfully provided such data last month in The Guardian, finding that men aged 18-to-34 gave Peter Dutton a net approval rating of plus 19%, compared with minus 20% among young women and minus 5% overall, and an average positive rating for Donald Trump of 47% across five different policy areas, compared with 26% among young women and 24% overall.
”
Socratessays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 3:55 pm
Peacock always seemed a reasonable person as conservative politicians went in the 80s.
Peacock’s main problem was that he could never match the quick and sometimes harsh wit of Keating. He seemed lightweight by comparison.
Looking back Peacock was unlucky to come up against the most talented leadership duo Labor has had in office in my lifetime- Hawke and Keating.
”
Constance already tried 3 times to get into Australian Parliament.
Once via HOR
2 other times via Senate. He was defeated by his own colleagues during pre-selection for Senate seat.
So he is defeated all the 3 times either by his colleagues or by Australian people.
This election is the 4th time he is trying his luck to get into Australian Parliament.
Dai Le will be returned. Why would the good people of Fowler want Labor back?
Bizzcan @ #492 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 7:34 pm
I’m afraid I’ll have to take issue with that. Most of Friendlyjordies’ content is devoted to pointing out how not same-same the so-called “duopoly” is.
Yeah, he’s pretty much unashamedly pro-Labor, at least he wears that badge with pride. The rest tend to be snivelling rodents that try to encircle Labor from both directions so that the end result is a majority Coalition government in perpetuity with Labor being PASOK’ed and powerless with the Greens sneering from the balcony making their Muppet Waldorf and Statler quips and not actually changing anything.
JIMBOB says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 7:41 pm
Dai Le will be returned. Why would the good people of Fowler want Labor back?
____________________________________________
It’s an interesting thing. One of the strengths of Dai Le’s campaign last time was the number of volunteers she got who were pissed off with parachuting Keneally in. Are those people out there working for her now?
Genuine question. I have no idea.
Too many posters on here seem to forget that you vote for a representative of the electorate. Your member should vote for the constituencies wishes, not that of big business/salmon farming/unions/old growth logging/coal mines etc etc. Hopefully at least 25 in 25.
JIMBOBsays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 7:41 pm
Dai Le will be returned. Why would the good people of Fowler want Labor back?
========================================================
I suspect the people of Fowler want Dai Le returned about as much as posters on PB want Lars to return.
Interesting 6news piece on TOP preferences, no love for One Nation in the Senate in any state
Plus some strange decisions in the reps, Deb Leonard at no. 2 in Monash
It will be interesting to see how many people have access to the HTV’s let alone follow them
Clive backing #25in25 ?
https://youtu.be/CVN4HfT9fWI
‘Bird of paradox says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:24 pm
Boerwar, even by your low standards…
They have been in Coalition at state level.
Why deny it?
For one obvious reason: because it isn’t true.
After the 1996 Tasmanian election (which you are referring to), the Liberals lost their majority and Labor refused to even try to form government. Therefore the Liberals stayed in power as a rather shaky minority government that went on to shrink Tas parliament (with Labor support) to scuttle the Greens. That isn’t a coalition.
If you want to deliberately lie about things like that, expect to be called out as a liar when you do so.’
=================================
There is one thing both the Liberals and Labor learned from the Tasmanian Greens. You can’t trust them to stick to their deals.
I can’t be bothered finding who, but to those suggesting that “victorians have woken up from labor etc etc” saying that people are “sick of” the ALP because of whatever reason, whichever state it may be, might I point to some stats of from 2000 until now in 2025
Labor has been in power for 21 of these 25 years in Vic, for 16 of 25 years in WA, 19 of 25 in SA, 14 of 25 in NSW, 21 of 25 in QLD, 11 of 25 in Tas, 24 of 25 in ACT, and approx 20 of the last 25 in NT….
these are the same sort of statements people made after Campbell Newman won the 2012 QLD election, which turned out to be a blip of 2 years and a few months in the solid 20 years of ALP gov, or maybe the “end of labor dominance in SA” that saw the alp lose in 2018… right before the ALP returned to power at the next election… or maybe the dominance of Barnet in WA which made people think WA would stay liberal for at least 3 elections… yeah we saw how that went with his inept 2nd term (this statement is separate to my political leanings left or right, Barnet left WA in an economic dumpster fire of epic proportions, to the point while we had just had THE BIGGEST MINING BOOM IN OUR HISTORY, we had some how gone into massive deficits and lost our AAA credit rating…), or for instance this is the same sort of statements made at *checks notes* pretty much the last 3 Vic state elections… thus living by the statement of ‘even a broken clock is right twice a day’.
It is almost like Tassie, which has had the longest amount of Liberal Government in that time, is coincidently the most leftwing of the various state Liberal parties (the only state Lib party to support the voice for instance), and so has preferred the libs there because they are governing from the middle.
Aus voters are simple, we like parties to govern from the center but if it is to be further left or right then within reason of that middle, then we prefer further to the left.
Lars will return when Lars is ready. Hopefully oiled up and his muscles absolutely glistening.
Wat Tylersays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 5:49 pm
(snip)… then the Liberals, then the (far too many) far/populist right parties.
—–
No, more far right parties is good, as strange as it may seem.
Think about it – diluting them means it’s harder for any of them to reach the threshold to receive election funding, increases the chance of dimwitted far right voters screwing up and rendering their vote informal, and sapping votes and funding from the Coalition.
Don’t get me wrong – no far right parties is ideal… But I’d rather each of ffp, phon, top, people’s party, etc get 1% of the vote, than just phon get 6%.
Talking about the Greens outright lying for the last three years: Same, same. The Duopoly.
Take the number one priority issue: climate.
Labor
1. Believes it is happening.
2. Is committed to the Paris Agreement.
3. Has legislated 43/30.
4. Is funding over $20 billion in renewables including poles and wires.
5. Is creating a benign climate for private sector investment in renewables (now at record levels).
6. Has introduced vehicles emissions standards.
7. Is committed to zero net fifty.
8. Has achieved record renewables.
(Some or all of Labor’s climate funding and legislation was, of course, delayed by the unctious hand-wringing Greens same old, same old liars.)
Liberals
Propose to subsidize further petrol burning.
Propose to subsidize further diesel burning.
Propose to make gas cheaper.
Propose to frack the East Coast.
Propose to walk away from all of 1-7 above.
Astroturf against wind farms (with the help of the Greens NIMBIES)
Astroturf against transmission lines (with the help of the Greens NIMBIES)
nathsays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 7:48 pm
Lars will return when Lars is ready. Hopefully oiled up and his muscles absolutely glistening.
===================================================
Lars has gone off to live in some hillbilly state of the USA and changed his name accordingly.
And in regards to the betting markets. The bookies will set the odds. Then the money invested(gambled) will determine the odds thereafter. Pretty simple. Why same same not ban gambling advertising when the majority of people want it banned. Looking after big business. Vote independent and let’s get back to democracy. Anyone but uni party. At least 25 in 25.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 7:50 pm
Talking about the Greens outright lying for the last three years: Same, same. The Duopoly.
———
You’re a demonstrated liar don’t need to read anything further
‘mj says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 7:37 pm
Those Palmer ads are not stop on Youtube. And they work too. Mentally weak people can be easily manipulated by repetition.
….’
—————
True. How many hundreds of thousands of times have the Greens repeated ‘same, same’. Around 13% of the electorate is weak-minded enough to believe it. Apparently.
How are the Greens coming along with their plan for Zero Net Forty?
Anyone holding their bellies to the fire on that one?
How are the Greens coming along with the plan to transmute their ‘Light Mobile Force’ bullshit into a billion dollar buy of missiles and wall-to-wall condemnation of all other defence spending?
Based on the small sample of diehard Labor voters around here, narcissism, histrionic behaviour, and emotional dysregulation feature prominently in this fascinating slice of the electorate. They will vote for anyone who provides a brief respite from their dysphoria. For the time being, that is the ALP. But don’t try to have a serious policy discussion with them. Policy does not drive their voting behaviour. It is the alleviation of unpleasant feelings that motivates them. If I were them, I would try pilates or weights training, but for these guys the remedy is political, and if that works, that is okay.
”
T.D. Karabotsossays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 4:46 pm
“If the polls are right, this election isn’t going to be close – it’s going to be a chainsaw massacre. When asking why, it’s hard to go past nuclear, writes James Campbell.”
It depends what he means ‘isn’t going to be close’. If Labor wins a solid majority it will be the end of Peter Dutton’s leadership. But if the Liberals are not even close forming a government but still manage to push Labor into minority government. Then Dutton will remain as leader with the hopes of a unstable minority government unfolding with the mandate not seen as legitimate with voters similar to the Gillard government.
@Political Nightwatchman- I agree 100%. If Labor get a majority Dutton is a dead man walking. You can imagine Angus Taylor will be eyeing off the leadership.
If Labor get into a minority then Dutton will double down on his negativity, which wont help the Liberals (or the nation) in the long run.
If Labor fall a couple of seats short then they may rather negotiate with the Teals than the Greens to govern
”
That is another main reason why people need to vote for majority ALP Government. The other being international chaos unfolding right in front of our eyes.
And I hope they do that.
That Dutton became leader of one of the major parties (Liberals) is an indictment on Australian politics and media.
Nicholas, astute as always.
Nicholassays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:00 pm
Based on the small sample of diehard Labor voters around here, narcissism, histrionic behaviour, and emotional dysregulation feature prominently in this fascinating slice of the electorate.
===============================================
Says the voter who has embraced MAGA type bigotry.
So. How ARE the Greens coming along with their plan to deliver Zero Net Forty?
After all that is their benchmark for criticizing everyone else for being less holy than the Greens on global warming.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:05 pm
So. How ARE the Greens coming along with their plan to deliver Zero Net Forty?
After all that is their benchmark for criticizing everyone else for being less holy than the Greens on global warming.
———
You don’t discuss in good faith so why bother?
Amusing how around election time, the fringe fraternity are all into the question of “Where are the big, bold, strong policies?” they seem to think will happen if only one of the majors will just bite the bullet and make it so.
In 2019, Shorten took some “bold” polices to the election campaign but at the end of the day the conservative electorate would not buy them.
Labor and Albanese are not stupid and have not repeated this approach – and who can blame them.
Demands for “bold, strong, big” polices come easy to the tongues of those whose political representative will probably never have to test the electorate to make them happen.
Hello Greens and your running mates here on PB.
@mj “Sounds like the die hard Labor luvvies are a dying breed and need expats to keep them afloat.”
This sounds vaguely racist as well as stupid but hey, we’ll give you the chance to explain yourself.
“its all about getting elected and fuck real world outcomes for people ”
Without getting elected you can’t achieve real world outcomes for people. This is kind of the fundamental issue we “Labor luvvies” have with Greens who take a holier than thou attitude towards their supposedly perfect world-saving policies which they can’t be bothered persuading more than about 12% of Australians to want (but they do expect Labor to be able to sell them to a majority, while simultaneously denigrating the Labor leader to the electorate, often playing into the Coalition’s attack lines against that leader as with Shorten, which makes Labor’s job harder and the Coalition’s job easier).
Tricot I don’t think Labor’s current settings are a recipe for long term success but enjoy the temporary good feelings.
mj enjoyed years of pretending not to be a Greens while coming on the board to snark and snarl at Labor.
Very honest is mj.
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/iconic-90s-child-star-haley-joel-osment-charged-with-cocaine-possession/news-story/fe0cb279005a8a6aceef0b2712e47779
I see dead career.
The fight between the labor partisans and greens partisans is so boring. Inside the beltway stuff. Their constituents each preference each other the vast majority of the time but the so called warriors, booth captains, and defined benefits recipients like to get amongst it safe in the bosom of the Government, small and insignificant branch that struggles to make quorum. The people who vote for, and frankly need your political class deserve better.
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:05 pm
So. How ARE the Greens coming along with their plan to deliver Zero Net Forty?
After all that is their benchmark for criticizing everyone else for being less holy than the Greens on global warming.
—–
And how did Labor do in 2019-2022 legislating the grandfathering of negative gearing? Oh, right, those who don’t form government have limited ability to implement their policies.
The greens certainly need to learn the lesson that you shouldn’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good (especially when negotiating from a relatively weak position)… but they’re certainly not making decisions contrary to their stated goal.
I’m not a Green but they are the party closest to my views I think that’s been obvious for awhile. Labor no longer represents working class ie. poor people issues anymore. Being marginally better than the alternative is not sufficient.
JIMBOB @ #500 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 7:41 pm
Because they may be the government? Weird concept I know. 😐
wranslidesays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:13 pm
The fight between the labor partisans and greens partisans is so boring.
—–
100% correct. Both are flawed, but the partisans of each side are incapable of seeing the value of the other, or the flaws of their own, so it’s just the same back and forth constantly.
Pegasus says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:35 pm
The PB Labor diehards always have, and always will, expect the Greens to be a rubber stamp for Labor.
Oh, I hope not. The Greens are not answerable to anyone but their supporters. If they purport to like reform while also opposing it, doubtless voters will see this for what it is: shallow pretence maintained in ill faith.
There is one way to deal with supercilious, hypocritical, hoilier-than-thou poseurs. Give them nothing.
What happened to Steve Davis? Did he get the chop?
mj @ #531 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 8:16 pm
Do you just sit on PB all day and ignore what Labor is doing for…checks notes…the Working Class and the Working Poor?
Just today the PM made a point of pointing out that the Coalition, again, would get rid of the Penalty Rates for Saturdays and most likely Sundays and Public Holidays. Guess who that policy benefits? Not to mention Same Job Same Pay. Gig Economy standards. The Right to Switch Off after work hours. The rejigging of the S3 Tax Cuts. Do you want me to go on?
The essential problem for the same old, same old liars is that the Albanese Government is the only federal government to have made substantial progress on climate action.
Given another three years, and given the Greens give up their current performative obsession with delaying everything, a re-elected Albanese Government will so far embed renewables and the associated infrastructure and the associated regulation that not even Angus Taylor will be able to undo them.
Did I mention Labor’s home battery policy? A million homes with home batteries.
Stated briefly, there are currently two issues in the US that could give rise to Trump declaring martial law. The first, Governor Newsom is challenging the legality of the imposition of tariffs, arguing that they require Congressional approval. The second, US District Judge Boasberg has said there are grounds to find the Trump administration in
criminal contempt for showing “wilful disregard” for an order against deporting alleged gang members to El Salvador. These two issues have the potential to test the powers of the Executive vis-à-vis the Judiciary. Both matters will eventually reach
the US Supreme Court (if the second matter hasn’t already got there) for determination. And as anyone who has followed its decisions knows, the corrupt and partisan majority will probably find in their man’s favour, which counterintuitively might be the best result, as it won’t give Trump the grounds to declare martial law.
After the next election, the rule of law will be restored & the US will get to work on recovering this once great, albeit flawed at times, democracy. I’d add that several of the justices consider themselves originalists. Let’s see how they interpret the two Constitutional Amendments that guarantee due process – the Fifth & the Fourteenth.
Live Updates: Supreme Court, for Now, Blocks Deportations of Venezuelan Migrants
Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito Jr. dissented. A group of migrants had been scheduled to be flown out of the country, according to people familiar with the matter.
Entropy @ #521 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 8:04 pm
And calls the wahmbulance every time he is rightly critiqued.
Do you just sit on PB all day and ignore what Labor is doing for…checks notes…the Working Class and the Working Poor?
Just today the PM made a point of pointing out that the Coalition, again, would get rid of the Penalty Rates for Saturdays and most likely Sundays and Public Holidays. Guess who that policy benefits? Not to mention Same Job Same Pay. Gig Economy standards. The Right to Switch Off after work hours. The rejigging of the S3 Tax Cuts. Do you want me to go on?
———
I’m glad Labor is defending penalty rates and job rights that’s good social policy. But they are ignoring the elephant in the room which is affordable housing.
“When asking why, it’s hard to go past nuclear, writes James Campbell.”
Self-serving garbage from one of mainstream media’s biggest arseclowns. Trumpist nonsense from the Herald Sun and the rest of the Murdoch gaggle have far more to do with it than nuclear.
Greens might get more respect if they sat on the crossbench and stopped saying they do deals with labor because at some point if you want a labor government you have to let it do labor things.
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:21 pm
mj @ #531 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 8:16 pm
I’m not a Green but they are the party closest to my views I think that’s been obvious for awhile. Labor does not address working class ie. poor people issues anymore being better than the alternative is not sufficient.
Do you just sit on PB all day and ignore what Labor is doing for…checks notes…the Working Class and the Working Poor?
Just today the PM made a point of pointing out that the Coalition, again, would get rid of the Penalty Rates for Saturdays and most likely Sundays and Public Holidays. Guess who that policy benefits? Not to mention Same Job Same Pay. Gig Economy standards. The Right to Switch Off after work hours. The rejigging of the S3 Tax Cuts. Do you want me to go on?
———————
Great for people in work but what about those not in work but get it you have no polices.
Be careful who you talk to on social media and what you talk to them about:
https://www.wired.com/story/massive-blue-overwatch-ai-personas-police-suspects/
Labor has:
1. Extended paid parental leave. Super on same.
2. Increased rental assistance by 45%.
3. Increased the lowest paid wage of the lowest paid workers by 27%.
4. Delivered record employment numbers.
5. Delivered record participation in the workforce.
6. Reduced the cost of medicines.
7. Provided free access to emergency care clinics.
8. Delivered five quarters of real wage increases.
9. Reduced the inflation rate significantly.
10. Provided submissions supporting basic wage increases in every basic wage case.
11. Provided direct energy payment relief.
12. Delivered or allocated more public funding for housing than any government since World War 2. Must of this is directed at renters, Indigenous Australians and victims of DV seeking housing.
Are you incapable of finding a job for yourself, Mexicanbeemer? Maybe, because all you do is sit here all day and whinge about the government not finding you one. 😐
Sceptic:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:25 pm
Wow! That is good news, though the “for now” provision is a bit of a worry.
mj @ #542 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 8:26 pm
Unfortunately the issue with affordable housing is that it’s currently a very thoroughly tangled fishing line, which requires delicate moves to untangle it, with people looming overhead that either want to tangle it more or cut it loose altogether and damn the consequences.
It’s something that needs more than 3 years to solve. And if Labor wins this time then they could start making some serious untangling moves, especially when a lot of 5-year contracts secured under Morrison’s government are up for renewal and they can make serious changes.