Election minus two weeks: RedBridge-Accent marginal seat poll and insider assessments (open thread)

Labor pulls yet further ahead in a poll tracking the seats that matter most, as party strategists dare to hope for another parliamentary majority.

Quite a bit of polling and polling-adjacent news to relate:

• The News Corp papers have another wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research poll tracking 20 marginal seats that once again records substantial movement in favour of Labor, whose two-party lead in seats that collectively broke around 51-49 in Labor’s favour at the 2022 election is now at 54.5-45.5, out from 52.5-47.5 last week. The report relates that Labor’s primary vote is steady since last week and the Coalition is down two to 34% — a graphic showing both on 35% and the Greens on 13% combines results from this week and last week. The poll also finds 51% accepting Labor’s position that Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan “will cost $600 billion and he will need to make cuts to pay for it”, with only 13% disagreeing; 45% agreeing that “Labor’s reckless spending is driving up inflation”, with 29% disagreeing; 42% agreeing that “Peter Dutton will cut Medicare if he is elected”, with 26% disagreeing; 36% rating that Labor has “the best election promises for them” compared with 26% for the Coalition; and 37% agreeing that “Australia is poorer, less safe and more divided because of Anthony Albanese”, and 36% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1000.

• The report accompanying the poll relates a 51-49 Coalition lead from the small-sample Victorian component of the poll, encompassing Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite and Menzies, suggesting a collective 2.5% swing to the Coalition. James Campbell of News Corp relates conflicting claims on internal polling from the state: Coalition sources claim “their tracking poll is holding up”, whereas Labor claims to be ahead in all its seats except Aston, “which they haven’t bothered to look at”.

• The Australian reports Labor strategists believe they are “edging closer to claiming a majority government victory on the back of a recovery in New South Wales and Victoria”. There is, however, a seemingly shared expectation that the Liberals will win Gilmore and recover the by-election loss of Aston, and likely gain Bennelong from Labor, Ryan from the Greens and Monash from Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent. Labor is “understood to have its nose ahead in a tight three-cornered contest” in Greens-held Brisbane, but faces a “tough fight” against the Greens to hold Wills. Teal independent challenges to the Liberals in Bradfield and Wannon are “expected to go down to the wire”. Sources from both sides said they did not expect Labor to make gains from the LNP in Queensland.

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian has another surprising set of poll numbers from conservative outfit Compass, this time from Wentworth, where Liberal candidate Roanne Knox is said to be leading teal incumbent Allegra Spender 47% to 28%, with Labor on 15% and the Greens on 10%. The poll, conducted by SMS from a sample of 627 at a time undisclosed, also finds the highest priority issue in the distinctly liberal electorate is “national security and immigration”. The aforementioned report in The Australian on party strategists’ view of the overall situation said the Liberals were “hoping to win back the teal seats of Curtin, Goldstein and Kooyong”, but made no mention of Wentworth.

• Tom Rabe of the Financial Review reports “pollsters and sources from both major parties” rate the Liberals favourites in the three-cornered contest for the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel, although some Labor sources believe they could still manage what they acknowledge would be an upset.

• Speaking on ABC Adelaide’s breakfast radio show on Thursday (listen from 3:12:30), Seven Network state politics reporter Mike Smithson related that a Liberal source had told him the party had “almost given up on Boothby” and was “now sandbagging Sturt”.

• Nine Newspapers has published audio and SMS messages from surveying conducted by uComms for Climate 200 that critics characterise as “push polling”. The Australian quoted a Climate 200 spokesperson earlier in the campaign saying results from its “message-tested vote intentions” questions were “used for internal campaign reasons only and not shared with the media”.

• Erin Clarke of the e61 Institute offers a finding that males aged between 15 to 24 have lately defied a long-term across-the-board trend of declining “belief in traditional gender norms”, to the extent of holding more conservative views than all male age cohorts other than 65-plus. The finding suggests it might be instructive for pollsters to start providing breakdowns that separate the age cohorts by gender. Peter Lewis of Essential Research helpfully provided such data last month in The Guardian, finding that men aged 18-to-34 gave Peter Dutton a net approval rating of plus 19%, compared with minus 20% among young women and minus 5% overall, and an average positive rating for Donald Trump of 47% across five different policy areas, compared with 26% among young women and 24% overall.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

642 thoughts on “Election minus two weeks: RedBridge-Accent marginal seat poll and insider assessments (open thread)”

  1. This will not be the interesting election.

    The next one will be. Failing a medical reason, Trump will still be around but on his last political legs. His legacy will be there for all to see and there will be no surprises. It is obvious the Trump factor right now has temporarily worked in the socialists favour. But leopards do not change their spots, I expect the albanese government to continue on being an abysmal government. To continue the attack on the productive elements of the country, while endlessly flashing the gold credit card and throwing endless money towards the least productive all for votes. Using borrowed money to solve any and all problems that cannot be swept under the carpet.

    Much like in Queensland and Victoria we now see voters knowing that they were wrong to vote back their respective labor governments at their respective previous elections. Labor getting back in federally will just mean they will really suffer at the following election.

    We are also starting to see the “service economy” start to fail. These economic cycles. Around 40 years is all they seem to last.

  3. ABC just showed half marathon run of humanoid robots in Hong Kong… 20 entries.

    It’s worth reading these to myopic bullshit articles from CNN on humanoid robots.. specifically written in a style not to upset the KoolAid addicted American public.. the Yanks have a chip the size of the planet on their shoulders…If I were a meeting person I would bet the house on China’s ascendancy & Americas decline. My money would be safe betting against a country still to get it’s first 100 meters of Very Fast Train…they will never get any unless they invite Japan, Spain , France, Germany, China to sell the technology & skilled manpower to do it…

    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/19/asia/china-first-humanoid-robot-half-marathon-intl-hnk/index.html

    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/25/tech/china-robots-market-competitiveness-intl-hnk/index.html

  4. The voters spoke and will speak…

    Antony Green – Record Minor Party Vote at the 2022 Senate Election and how the Senate’s Electoral System Performed

    https://antonygreen.com.au/record-minor-party-vote-at-the-2022-senate-election-and-how-the-senates-electoral-system-performed/

    “The 2022 Senate election marked a new high point in support for minor parties and Independents. The long term trend of declining support for major parties continued and passed a new milestone. For the first time both major parties were outpolled by the combined vote for minor parties and independents.

    Senate ‘Other’ vote reached 35.7% against 34.2% for the Coalition and 30.1% for Labor. Senate non-major party support has been higher than Labor’s vote at every Senate election since 2013, but 2022 was the first where it was also higher than the Coalition.”

    Long may the trend continue.

  5. I also heard on good authority today to expect the Kiama by election before summer is upon us. The trial is due to commence next month.

  6. I’m kind over the talk about a power sharing deal with the Greens and Labor particularly when the Greens are likely to go back in numbers in the reps. It’s a combination of Adam Bandt wanting the Greens to stay relevant. And Newscorp using the Greens to try and damage Labor’s chances. But even if Labor was to fall short it likely be by 1 or 2 seats. And they can by-pass any negotiation by dealing with the teals. Greens will still have power to scrutinise legislation in the senate but even then that’s status quo from the previous term in parliament.

  7. We saw this play out in the Qld state election where they won none of their target seats and lost their heartland seat of South Brisbane.

    And they lost Prahran in Melbourne after a decade or so. That must’ve stung.

    I’m sorry, but it’s too little too late for me. I will never again trust the Greens to be a sensible party who can be trusted with the balance of power, and my votes in this election and the future will reflect that lack of trust.

  9. They only hold the balance of power depending on how other Senators vote on an issue. It is undeniable that they have the right to exercise that balance of power, but to whine and squeal when the government, with many more senators, refuses to buckle to their parasitic demands is just absurd and shows what a bunch of hypocrites the Greens are.
    —–

    Sure Labor can negotiate with the LNP to pass law and the Greens are then irrelevant. But if they can’t then Labor and the Greens need to reach a mutual agreement they can settle with. I think the Greens did drag it out too long but I don’t think it was in bad faith and ultimately they voted for the HAFF.

  13. @Confessions

    Look fair enough. I think the idea they would be good faith partners with the ALP is a bit of a stretch based on form. They also have a little quirk (which I have witnessed first hand) of hating Labor as much if not more than the Liberals. (Admittedly, you sometimes see this same phenomena play out to an extent in ALP factional politics.)

  14. C@t:

    I can’t recall the last time I saw him comment. Was it within this period of government? Maybe in the Morrison era.

  15. Jolly Jumbuck,
    At least Labor don’t give Billions of taxpayers’ $$ away to mates and don’t ask for any of it back!

    Btw, have you never heard of a mortgage? It’s what people get to build a home. This asset then increases in value as it gets paid for. That’s what Labor does with taxpayers’ $$. They build stuff and invest in assets which pay the country back in spades. The Coalition should try it sometime. They might end up more popular as a result.

  16. Re Queensland state election 2024…

    Greens increased its vote by 0.42% and Labor decreased by 7.01%

    https://antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-initial-analysis-of-the-queensland-election-result/

    “Compared to the 2015 election when the Newman government lost office, the LNP’s first preference support was up only 0.2%, but Labor’s vote was down 5%. In two-party preferred terms LNP support was up 4.9% compared to 2015, with the caveat that the 2015 election was conducted under optional preferential voting.

    The combined major party first preference vote of 74.1% was the third lowest since 1960. In 2017 the combined vote was 69.1% with One Nation polling 13.7%, and in 1998 it was 70.2% with One Nation polling 22.7%. Green support was slightly down on 10.0% polled in 2017 but slightly up on the 2020 result.
    :::
    Unlike the other contests, South Brisbane is a seat where the LNP tends to finish third and it is LNP preferences that determine the winner. In 2020 the LNP recommended preferences for the Greens ahead of Labor and election night preference flows showed 67.8% of LNP voters followed the recommendation. In 2024 the LNP recommended preferences for Labor and published flow data showed 76.0% of LNP voters following that recommendation for Labor. Had the 2020 flows applied, the Greens would have retained South Brisbane.

    But the improved LNP vote in South Brisbane almost prevented Labor winning. After the distribution of One Nation preferences, Labor’s Barbara O’Shea led the LNP’s Marita Parkinson by only 105 votes. LNP preferences then elected O’Shea, but had Labor slipped to third, Labor preferences would have re-elected Greens MLA Amy MacMahon.”

  18. When it comes to the Greens for me, there’s a distinction between constructive and unconstructive ones.

    Former Victorian Greens leader Greg Barber and Max Chandler-Mather pretty much come across as smug gits that just want to be obstructionist for the sake of it.

    But also former Victorian Greens leader Samantha Ratnam and other local Greens members I’ve met personally have been quite decent, and I was happy to give them my number 2 preferences.

    At the 2022 Senate election I voted below the line because I really couldn’t stand Lidia Thorpe, so I put my numbers down for the rest of the Greens candidates and let whatever happened from there exhaust. It really is a bummer that Thorpe ended up winning against Julian Burnside for the number 1 spot.

  19. @Pegasus

    That’s a rosy picture you’re painting. Not sure it would be shared by anyone in the Greens campaign privately. They went into the election strongly favoured in McConnel and Cooper and were genuinely thinking they would pick up Bulimba and Greenslopes based on success at the federal election and their positions within the division of Griffith. They won none of them and instead lost South Brisbane, the only area with a Greens councillor.

  21. What’s more important to base one’s vote on – the personalities of party individuals or policies of the political parties? Discuss.

  24. The Greens have no leverage in any government negotiations as they’ve already said they’ll support them. Why would you offer anything to a party that has guaranteed support before the election?

  25. Fraudster & conman Palmer’ preference strategy is totally nuts.. sitting member last.. only an idiot could come up with that.. why does the ABC give the fat fool any air time?

    Why?

  29. Policies of course Pegasus. But neither major party wants to seriously address the problems we face, its all about getting elected and fuck real world outcomes for people its this attitude which is causing their year on year decline.

  31. The Greens have no leverage in any government negotiations as they’ve already said they’ll support them. Why would you offer anything to a party that has guaranteed support before the election?

    @ltep

    I think it’s also a democratic and moral issue as well. Why should they get to decide the policy’s of the government of Australia with 12% of the vote.

  33. I think it’s also a democratic and moral issue as well. Why should they get to decide the policy’s of the government of Australia with 12% of the vote.

    ——
    Why should Labor be the dictator with 32% of the vote?

  36. Sportsbet has been stuck on 4.30 for the Coalition for the past 2 days.
    In contrast, the TAB in one day has the Coalition odds lengthening from 4.00 to 4.50.

  37. The house Bob Hawke was in from Age 10 -24 in Perth this week became available as a rental it is on the state heritage register.West Leederville.

  38. Bludgeoned Westiesays:
    Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:46 pm
    @Pegasussays: Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 5:37 pm
    2pp being 53-47 in QLD is crazy

    Thats what I thought. I cannot see how those numbers are anywhere near accurate TBH.

  39. mj @ #478 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 7:12 pm

    Policies of course Pegasus. But neither major party wants to seriously address the problems we face, its all about getting elected and fuck real world outcomes for people its this attitude which is causing their year on year decline.

    You Greens are delusional. That’s the basic problem with you. You think you’re perfect. As are your policies. Guess what? They’re not. Just like any other political party. You need to learn that lesson.

  41. @Pegasus

    He’s making a technical analysis based on the previous state election but not taking into account how many would have voted in the federal election in between. Many would have voted for MCM and then for Labor at the state election. In 2022 if you said Labor would be winning back South Brisbane in 2024 you would have been laughed at. You bringing in those quotes made me think you were defending the results of the Greens at the state election which was quite clearly a massive disappointment.

  42. Bob Hawke the honorary Perthian. Labor did very well here when he was PM, they are possibly doing even better now on the back of Dutton.

  43. ”How come Broncos keep coming from dead? This habit of Broncos coming from dead need to be stopped for the good of NRL. ”

    They went back to the dead in extra time … and no resurrection for them tomorrow.

  44. brucemainstreamsays:
    Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:52 pm
    @Confessions

    Look fair enough. I think the idea they would be good faith partners with the ALP is a bit of a stretch based on form. They also have a little quirk (which I have witnessed first hand) of hating Labor as much if not more than the Liberals. (Admittedly, you sometimes see this same phenomena play out to an extent in ALP factional politics.)

    _____________________

    The problem is that negotiation and collaboration is a mortal sin, especially as presented by the media when it occurs amongst the media’s political opposition.

    We now have utterly ridiculous language of “duopoly” “same same” and “secret deals” that all sides call each other. I don’t mind when Labor and Greens collaborate. I’m ok when Labor and LNP work together. Greens and LNP working together makes me sad but at least I accept it.

    The hypocrisy that annoys me are those who play the “same same” card and get so defensive when it is thrown back at them (its like 75% of the traffic on PB).

    Its so bad that there are new-media outfits who entire monetary business models are dependent on repeating the “same same” narrative to pump subscribers – Juice, Crikey, Macrobusiness, even Friendlyjordies all take part in the “duopoly” dance just to get you to thrown them a few dollars.

  45. mj says:
    Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 7:23 pm
    I think it’s also a democratic and moral issue as well. Why should they get to decide the policy’s of the government of Australia with 12% of the vote.

    ——
    Why should Labor be the dictator with 32% of the vote?

    ___________________________________________

    This is bullshit. It is one thing to negotiate on the detail of the legislation; it is another to demand the imposition of a policy that is political suicide for the government. The Greens are now pretending that they were doing the former when actually they were demanding that Labor implement Greens policy at not cost to the greens and great cost to the Government.

    The Greens modus operandi is to be parasitic on Labor because they can’t survive on their own merits. 90% of voters do not want their crap.

  46. Dai le interviewed on sky news today
    .
    I find it hard to make out what she is actually saying. Apart from a P1-esk broad anti Labor rant and theme I can’t make out a single statement with any clarity or confidence.

    For the good of the people of fowler we can only hope that Tu Le will dethrone Dai Le

  47. Those Palmer ads are not stop on Youtube. And they work too. Mentally weak people can be easily manipulated by repetition. (See Boerwar’s impact on weaker minded people like TPOF et al).

    —–

    Maybe a small percentage of people who are probably the cooker sovereign citizen type already. Less than 5%

  48. “Why should Labor be the dictator with 32% of the vote?”

    @mj

    It’s not a dictatorship and using a term like that is extreme. It’s the result our electoral system has allowed with preferential voting. And when Labor goes to the election with policies the public expects Labor to implement those policies. Not Greens policies they expect Labor policies. You want Greens policies and a Greens government get a bigger size of the vote. But getting 10 – 12 percent of the vote at most elections and expect Greens policies to be implemented is not respecting the wishes of the majority who voted in a much higher number for a Labor government.

  49. The Palmer ads I’ve seen are bright and upbeat, nothing like the weird, grim, conspiracy-laden ads last time. Well, apart from the airfield 80 km South of Port Headland which the Chinese will use for some nefarious purpose…. Or something. They’re all bullshit, of course, but might be persuasive.

  50. Those Palmer ads are not stop on Youtube. And they work too. Mentally weak people can be easily manipulated by repetition. (See Boerwar’s impact on weaker minded people like TPOF et al).

    —–

    Maybe a small percentage of people who are probably the cooker sovereign citizen type already. Less than 5% but a memorable cohort.

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