Quite a bit of polling and polling-adjacent news to relate:
• The News Corp papers have another wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research poll tracking 20 marginal seats that once again records substantial movement in favour of Labor, whose two-party lead in seats that collectively broke around 51-49 in Labor’s favour at the 2022 election is now at 54.5-45.5, out from 52.5-47.5 last week. The report relates that Labor’s primary vote is steady since last week and the Coalition is down two to 34% — a graphic showing both on 35% and the Greens on 13% combines results from this week and last week. The poll also finds 51% accepting Labor’s position that Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan “will cost $600 billion and he will need to make cuts to pay for it”, with only 13% disagreeing; 45% agreeing that “Labor’s reckless spending is driving up inflation”, with 29% disagreeing; 42% agreeing that “Peter Dutton will cut Medicare if he is elected”, with 26% disagreeing; 36% rating that Labor has “the best election promises for them” compared with 26% for the Coalition; and 37% agreeing that “Australia is poorer, less safe and more divided because of Anthony Albanese”, and 36% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1000.
• The report accompanying the poll relates a 51-49 Coalition lead from the small-sample Victorian component of the poll, encompassing Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite and Menzies, suggesting a collective 2.5% swing to the Coalition. James Campbell of News Corp relates conflicting claims on internal polling from the state: Coalition sources claim “their tracking poll is holding up”, whereas Labor claims to be ahead in all its seats except Aston, “which they haven’t bothered to look at”.
• The Australian reports Labor strategists believe they are “edging closer to claiming a majority government victory on the back of a recovery in New South Wales and Victoria”. There is, however, a seemingly shared expectation that the Liberals will win Gilmore and recover the by-election loss of Aston, and likely gain Bennelong from Labor, Ryan from the Greens and Monash from Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent. Labor is “understood to have its nose ahead in a tight three-cornered contest” in Greens-held Brisbane, but faces a “tough fight” against the Greens to hold Wills. Teal independent challenges to the Liberals in Bradfield and Wannon are “expected to go down to the wire”. Sources from both sides said they did not expect Labor to make gains from the LNP in Queensland.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian has another surprising set of poll numbers from conservative outfit Compass, this time from Wentworth, where Liberal candidate Roanne Knox is said to be leading teal incumbent Allegra Spender 47% to 28%, with Labor on 15% and the Greens on 10%. The poll, conducted by SMS from a sample of 627 at a time undisclosed, also finds the highest priority issue in the distinctly liberal electorate is “national security and immigration”. The aforementioned report in The Australian on party strategists’ view of the overall situation said the Liberals were “hoping to win back the teal seats of Curtin, Goldstein and Kooyong”, but made no mention of Wentworth.
• Tom Rabe of the Financial Review reports “pollsters and sources from both major parties” rate the Liberals favourites in the three-cornered contest for the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel, although some Labor sources believe they could still manage what they acknowledge would be an upset.
• Speaking on ABC Adelaide’s breakfast radio show on Thursday (listen from 3:12:30), Seven Network state politics reporter Mike Smithson related that a Liberal source had told him the party had “almost given up on Boothby” and was “now sandbagging Sturt”.
• Nine Newspapers has published audio and SMS messages from surveying conducted by uComms for Climate 200 that critics characterise as “push polling”. The Australian quoted a Climate 200 spokesperson earlier in the campaign saying results from its “message-tested vote intentions” questions were “used for internal campaign reasons only and not shared with the media”.
• Erin Clarke of the e61 Institute offers a finding that males aged between 15 to 24 have lately defied a long-term across-the-board trend of declining “belief in traditional gender norms”, to the extent of holding more conservative views than all male age cohorts other than 65-plus. The finding suggests it might be instructive for pollsters to start providing breakdowns that separate the age cohorts by gender. Peter Lewis of Essential Research helpfully provided such data last month in The Guardian, finding that men aged 18-to-34 gave Peter Dutton a net approval rating of plus 19%, compared with minus 20% among young women and minus 5% overall, and an average positive rating for Donald Trump of 47% across five different policy areas, compared with 26% among young women and 24% overall.
I reckon there’s a lot of deliberate misinformation in some of those so-called “insider assessments.”
Thanks for a great bunch of polling and related news William.
The overall polling number looks good but if both sides appear to be writing off 5/6 seats as LNP gains
and no likely labor gains beyond maybe Brisbane and possibly Sturt, where is the path to majority government?
meher baba @ #1 Saturday, April 19th, 2025 – 5:34 am
It has ever been thus, meher baba. Expectations management 101.
Anyway, I’m just happy that Robertson appears to have dropped off the radar. 🙂
Btw, welcome back. Strap in for the ride.
No one appears to have tested the waters in Calare with Andrew Gee. I’d be interested to see how he’s going. Also, Moore wrt Ian Goodenough to see how the Evangelical vote is holding up for him against the Liberals.
“Dennis Shanahan of The Australian has another surprising set of poll numbers from conservative outfit Compass …”
More shanahanigans from good ol’ Dennis.
In terms of medical and allied disciplinary proceedings, pharmacists and nurses seem to cop it the most.
Doctors with histories of self prescribing and drug use seem to survive if they stay on board if their hair samples are ok.
The quickest way to lose your professional ticket is, as a psychiatrist, forming a sexual relationship with your patient.
“… Essential Research
that men aged 18-to-34 gave Peter Dutton a net approval rating of plus 19%, compared with minus 20% among young women …”
Lost for words …
So let me get this straight. According to the Redbridge poll that is tracking 20 of the most marginal seats, Labor has improved its position over the last week from 52.5/47.5 to now 54.5/45.5.
So the betting markets should equate to $1.10 for the ALP and $8.00 for the LNP.
It may do so soon, but in my opinion, the betting has behaved “extraordinarily” this election, being turned on its head ever since Trump called Zelensky a dictator and sided with Putin.
I’m not happy with it, not that Labor leads (well that too but you know what I mean). Maybe the polls will prove correct…
I will do some digging and try to get to the bottom of the betting side, say by Monday.
For now, I will leave you all to it with your Socialist Red love in.
Centre, good to see an honest assessment from you on the betting markets. I think your characterisation of “extraordinary ” is spot on, and the same descriptor can be applied the polls as well.
I’m equally surprised by the turnaround.
c@t: I’ve been around, but just haven’t had much time to post on PB.
It really isn’t going to be much of a ride up to election day IMO. After looking like an outside chance, the LNP have failed to deliver to an embarrassing extent (for them).. The only real contest now is can Labor win a majority.
The daily tedium of staged events featuring Albo and Dutton tells us nothing whatsoever about what’s going to happen in that contest.
So I’m finding the campaign so far quite uninteresting. On the other hand, election night will be totally absorbing.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:17 am
“… Essential Research
that men aged 18-to-34 gave Peter Dutton a net approval rating of plus 19%, compared with minus 20% among young women …”
Lost for words …
——–
I think it’s reflecting a growing worldwide trend of younger males turning towards more alt-right figures. I think there is a sense masculinity is being devalued combine that with economic insecurity and online influencers and that is a recipe for political polarisation.
FWIW, here’s my (slightly revised) contribution to the overnight debate re Arthur Calwell, which turned out to be the last post on the previous thread.
Re Arthur Calwell. Apart from being a charisma-free zone, he was definitely an out-and-out racist. The whole point of the post-war mass migration program was to keep Australia white: Calwell spent four years selling this message hard to the nation. He needed to emphasise the “whiteness” of the new migrants to overcome the racism of many Australians against people who didn’t speak English very well, had funny accents, ate strange food, etc. However, he took to the task with gusto, railing against the prospect of a “chocolate-coloured Australia” in which non-white migrants who “live on the smell of an oily rag” would “breed like fleas.”
The history of the ALP is steeped in racism, right back to the anti-Chinese movement of the late 19th century. Not quite the South African far left with its slogan “White Workers of the World Unite”, but not far off.
Of course these things must be understood in their historical context, but nonetheless…
As leader, Calwell was very much a hangover from the bad old days. If Calwell could have been moved on a few years before he ultimately was, Whitlam might have become PM while the global economy was still in reasonable shape and political history might have been a little different. (Although I suspect that left factional gumbies like Connor and Cairns would have brought him down just the same.)
Hey Oliver I thought the same thing about Dennis with his Shanahanigans!!!! This guy knows where his bread is buttered – no risk !!!
Possibly the most loyal foot soldier in Rupert Murdoch’s elite pro LNP special force at the Australian. Good onya Dennis but I wonder what will happen when the old fella moves on will the Australian move back to being a normal newspaper?
Trump derangement syndrome prevents labor supporters mentioning same cohort has 46% support for Trump across five policy areas.
Good to see males that age realising they are going to be the paying for the massive debt being racked up by Labor state and federal governments and the spending is off the charts by the failing federal labor government.
Young women maybe too busy going out in groups with their gal pals on the piss need like their male counterparts to think about what’s going on around them as they will be paying for the debt by labor.
10 years of deficits federal labor failures announced in the recent federal budget young will pay that back including a $42 billion yearly deficit shortly.
Greens vote maybe not as strong with young males thinking this provided poll is accurate.
We reported a non registered practising psychologist for non compliance.
The person is question was found to be non registered, self promoting as a psychologist & owner director of their own psychological counselling business.
Ahpra confirmed via various searches of non registration & said they had flagged the discovery & will watch & see but said it was imperative to the process that ‘we’ follow the links provided and complete the criminal paper work.
Mmm…we thought our job was completed by alerting Ahpra!
+1 Centre, time to put the call out to your network of deep cover betting company moles and figure out what could possibly be going on here. Given that polls follow the betting market (an incontrovertible fact of nature), this could be an attempt by radical left betting syndicates to manipulate our election.
And why would Dutton, a man of obvious intelligence and good judgement, put Jacinta Price front and center in the middle of it all? Why would he be calling Trump ‘shrewd’ and ‘reasonable’ in relation to his Gaza ethnic cleansing plan?
These questions need answering in terms of how he was the victim of a left wing dirty tricks campaign involving the betting markets. Probably best to get one of those big pinboards and show how everything is connected using different coloured lengths of string so people can really see what is going on.
Bludgeoned westie a quick glance through your long and insightful commentary posted last night reminds one of one’s own ability to produce long form intriguing, original and analytical prose worthy of a major broadsheet’s feature editorial.
Leftiebrawler 1.0 cut his teeth at pb with such quality contributions but unfortunately allowed himself to be sucked into the traps of petty and personal back and forth sledging in a narrative not to dissimilar to bushfire bill.
Westie good work. You may have just provided me with the petty drive of one upmanship required to provoke me into returning serve.
The Redbridge poll seems a little confusing. How does the overall tally equate with what’s happening in Victoria, where Labor appears to be losing a number of seats.
#weatheronPB
glorious blue sky
indifferent perfection
urges me to look
to find
to enjoy
to love
to extract
a response in kind
“As the world plunges into historic turmoil, Australia’s election debate fusses over minor tax tweaks”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2025/apr/19/as-the-world-plunges-into-historic-turmoil-australias-election-debate-fusses-over-minor-tax-tweaks
From William.
“The Australian reports Labor strategists believe they are “edging closer to claiming a majority government victory on the back of a recovery in New South Wales and Victoria”. There is, however, a seemingly shared expectation that the Liberals will win Gilmore”
William I’ve been discussing this exact narrative for a month. Why wait to report it once published in the Australian?. I could have told you this almost 4 weeks ago.
Where is the ‘shared expectation’ that the liberals will win Gilmore coming from ? . That’ not accurate. We’ve got a major announcement coming specifically for Gilmore and the internals have Fiona in front 51-49ish based on the last two weeks of data capture
Oliver Sutton says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:10 am
“Dennis Shanahan of The Australian has another surprising set of poll numbers from conservative outfit Compass …”
More shanahanigans from good ol’ Dennis.
Dennis & Co are dyslectic.. it actually said Allegra leading 47:28
mj says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:37 am
Lost for words …
——–
I think it’s reflecting a growing worldwide trend of younger males turning towards more alt-right figures. I think there is a sense masculinity is being devalued
No that’s what happens when you watch pornography non stop.
There is a 0% chance the Liberals are garnering 47% primary support in Wentworth on current national polling. That poll can’t be believed. There was another poll commissioned by Climate 200 which had Spender ahead 58-42 in March. Maybe the truth lies somewhere in the middle of them?
It’s in everyone’s interests 2 weeks out to promote the idea this is a close election. The media wants a contest, Labor wants to avoid hubris, and the Lib Nats need to keep the wheels on the bus. I still think it could end up being pretty tight, but Labor should still be on track for a majority.
Regarding Bullwinkle, and WA more generally, drawing too much from the “huge swings” in the recent state election in outer suburban electorates overlooks that in many of these seats, Labor was coming off 2PPs in the 70s and even 80s in 2021. These seats are still Labor held seats, and mostly on comfortable margins. The state seat of Kalamunda delivered one of the few moments of joy for the Liberals – by less than 100 votes. Given that WB has calculated a 1.5% Labor margin in Bullwinkle based on state election numbers, this supports a view that it will be a Labor win. However the candidacy of Mia Davies does present a curve ball.
Lynchpin redbridge is still using and and feeding in old cumulative data from the start of the year into their methodologies. This is intentional because they are in the LNP camp and want to create and a false narrative that the election is still competitive and too close to call.
Just watch one skynews upload of an interview with Con the fruiter who is a head pollster and analyst but sounds more like an Andrew Bolt in deep monologue.
Any tracker still utilising data from before early-mid march when the LNP collapse and capitulation took hold is essentially useless as it is corrupted by bad data and not indicative of where things sit right now.
mj says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 7:03 am
“As the world plunges into historic turmoil, Australia’s election debate fusses over minor tax tweaks”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2025/apr/19/as-the-world-plunges-into-historic-turmoil-australias-election-debate-fusses-over-minor-tax-tweaks
_____________________
This is all you need to read today.
Lenore hits you with a reality check.
But major party rusted ons will block their ears and sing la la la….
Princeplanet says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:44 am
… will the Australian move back to being a normal newspaper?
No .. once damaged never recover…
I know a retired Murdoch exec from their news paper division.. he was telling me the other day.. only reads Australian because he gets it sent to him for free
I find it very hard to accept Labor are on a 2PP of 54.5.
And the question must be asked: what if all the polls showing a recovery for Labor are wrong? It isn’t outside the realms of possibility.
2 weeks to go and the only real interest at this stage is if we’re heading for Labor majority or minority
Can they avoid losing 3 seats to anybody or offset them with wins if they do?
Postal voters have started having their say, prepolling opens on Tuesday
As I posted yesterday, I don’t think Labor deserves majority
Really hoping for #25in25
Have a feeling there will be a late break towards minor parties and independents so still thinking Labor minority though with many options to pass legislation through the lower house.
I often find the supposed insider tips from both sides about how the campaigning is going in various seats, the stuff leaked to journalists, is either BS or it’s designed to deceive or you can’t trust what those blokes are telling you.
A better guide to me for the state of play is where the major party leaders and their camps are travelling to, for their daily policy announcements or media events.
A local perspective – I live in the seat of Berowra. Other than seeing some corflutes around for the current MP Julian Leeser and the Independent candidate Tina Brown, you’d be forgiven for thinking there isn’t an election campaign on in this part of the world, it is very quiet.
I guess the obvious reason is this seat is very safe Liberal, it always has been, and it always will be, the Liberals don’t need to do much here at all, Labor puts in no effort at all either. Tina Brown the Independent at least has some profile, but at best she might finish 2nd in the primary vote without Leeser being threatened at all when it comes to the final 2 party preferred count.
Insiders Sunday, 20 Apr – 9:01 AM – 10:30 AM
David Speers and the panel Raf Epstein, Clare Armstrong and Karen Middleton discuss the big housing announcements, the Leaders Debate plus fallout from reports that Russia was seeking to base long range aircraft in Indonesia.
GUESTS : Campaign Special – Michael Sukkar And Adam Bandt
Speaking of number crunchers and trackers I had the first proper look in some time at the website of ‘Dr Kevin Bonham’ – celebrated Tasmanian pollster and stable genius.
When one gets to his homepage you are greeted with this exact introduction Caps lock and all:
Dr Kevin Bonham
ELECTORAL, POLLING AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS, COMMENT AND NEWS FROM THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CLARK. THE ABC IS A SELF-PROCLAIMED AMATEUR MEDIA NETWORK UNTIL IT LEARNS TO DESCRIBE ITS GUESTS RESPECTFULLY. IF USING THIS SITE ON MOBILE YOU CAN SCROLL DOWN AND CLICK “VIEW WEB VERSION” TO SEE THE SIDEBAR FULL OF GOODIES
I love it Dr Bonham!
So what is the SmearStralian leading with today?
Reds under the beds..
Red flag on ALP’s intel iron curtain on Russia
The Coalition has accused Labor of a cover-up after it refused to grant a security briefing on Moscow’s bid to operate military aircraft out of Indonesia.
BEN PACKHAM
COMMENTARY
GREG SHERIDAN
Why is Labor playing dumb on Russian plans?
Labor are making blind assurances on Russia and Indonesia that there’s nothing to see here. Don’t be fooled, don’t be reassured.
And these individual seat polls look very dodgy to me, especially when you consider the organisations who have commissioned them. For example, the Forrestry Association will be favouring a Liberal/National Party government, so any poll from them purporting to show Allegra Spender in trouble in Wentworth, that one I take with a huge grain of salt.
On the other hand, polling commissioned by environmental or pro climate change action groups will obviously favour a Teal candidate or a Greens candidate.
And my memory of 2019 is that some of those individual seat polls were way off, as were the assertions of people manning pre poll booths for Labor candidates in seats like Forde.
In relation to Gilmore – Fiona Phillips is obviously a hard worker, but I know that area well, my late grandparents lived on the South Coast of NSW and I used to spend holidays with them very often. There is a huge population of older people and retirees in places like Milton and Ulladulla and Conjola, those people are not Labor voters. Labor’s strength in that seat is up in the Northern part of Gilmore – Kiama and Nowra.
I’m more confident about Bennelong than Gilmore for Labor, mostly because the Liberals chose a candidate for Bennelong who really doesn’t come from the area, he’s a blow in from Kogarah, and there are huge question marks about Mr Yung.
This is the Redbridge 20 seat tracking poll referenced by William in the commentary..
I live in Robertson and the only signs of the election in my part of the seat, apart from via the mailbox, was 2 of Lucy’s crew handing out reusable shopping bags at Gosford Central during the week and a digital sign inside I noticed a few weeks back
And some comments from the Redbridge pollsters..
Accent’s Shaun Ratcliff said the Coalition’s line that “Australia is poorer, less safe and more divided because of Anthony Albanese” was not really cutting through.
“While the majority of voters who already intend to give the Coalition their first preference agree with this, most others do not, and it also resonates less well with soft voters than those who have already locked in their vote,” he said.
“Something that should ring alarm bells in the Coalition campaign is that soft and leaning voters in particular are turning on the Liberal and National parties, and Peter Dutton, and warming to Albanese and Labor.”
RedBridge’s Tony Barry said “unlike most sequels, Labor’s Mediscare 2.0 campaign is possibly better than the original.”
He said the message linking costs of the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan to cuts to Medicare was “smashing the Liberal brand and Dutton’s personal numbers and that’s atomising the primary vote.”
Fieldwork for Wave 4 of the Election Track was conducted between 9 and 15 April with a sample of 1,000 voters.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/federal-election/latest-polls/new-poll-shows-coalitions-vote-in-marginal-seats-collapsing-amid-labors-nuclear-scare-campaign/news-story/55cf3517bb1bebc0a3fa653c7ae83b67
What 20 seats is the Redbridge tracking poll meant to be tracking?
The stated result is rather at odds with the “but Labor is still going to lose all these seats and not gain much” narrative.
That Redbridge marginal tracker perhaps suggesting the LNP is losing a disproportionate number of voters in marginals and keeping more true believers in safe seats?
sprocket_ that first chart is a scientific masterpiece
LeftieB
I do remember Con the Fruiterer, but my memory fails on which show that was on? Paul Hogan?
Anyway, his doppelgänger has some comments on the Redbridge 20-seater..
Mr Samaras said the turnaround in the Coalition and Labor position was extraordinary.
“Between our initial key seats track and the latest update, we have witnessed one of the most significant electoral shifts in living memory,” he said.
“The focal point of this dramatic change is Victoria, where the Coalition’s primary vote has plummeted by 11 per cent, erasing their once commanding advantage and potentially limiting them to a one-seat gain.”
Libs election campaign a shocker.
Dutton needs to spend a lot more time in WA not been here enough either.
His invisible deputy -by design? needs to be front and centre heard nothing apart from a nutty introduction from her to Duttons Launch speech.
Also not enough on 10 years of labor deficits and spending at massive levels.
This is basic stuff
Also nothing on productivity down the tubes due to widespread quotas by labor once again lazy ignorance from libs.
These are simple steps to win mass votes not being implemented by libs.
Labor is linking you to Trump anyway no point in restricting your policies so you are not compared to Trump all doing that means is being where you are now-nowhere land.
Inskysers Sunday.
Hopefully, sunday morning will be calm, a gentle off-shore breeze, Nth Avoca Point will be pumping to give a great reason to avoid Suckar and Bandt on TV.
What a pathetic line up of guests and journos!
Arky
James Campbell puts his master’s voice spin on the numbers…
Dutton should stay away from WA he will actively turn people off voting Liberal everytime he visits. Susߧan Ley is a non-entity.
Has anyone other than Kevin Bonham posted a “coalition on track to get rekt across the board” type article? That would go well with my second coffee
‘meher baba says:
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6:33 am
c@t: I’ve been around, but just haven’t had much time to post on PB.
It really isn’t going to be much of a ride up to election day IMO. After looking like an outside chance, the LNP have failed to deliver to an embarrassing extent (for them).. The only real contest now is can Labor win a majority.
The daily tedium of staged events featuring Albo and Dutton tells us nothing whatsoever about what’s going to happen in that contest.
So I’m finding the campaign so far quite uninteresting. On the other hand, election night will be totally absorbing.’
========================
Karen Middleton suggested on Insiders that we look at which electorates the PM and LOTO visit. The suggestion was that they would be the electorates in which the campaign team thought there are tight contests. I assume that means hopeful of capturing or hopeful of avoiding defeat.