The second of three leaders’ debate will be hosted by the ABC from 8pm this evening, to be moderated by David Speers. It was also announced on Monday that the third will be held on Sunday, April 27, a week out from polling day, to be conducted by the Seven Network and moderated by Mark Riley. On the polling front, Nine Newspapers has further results from the Resolve Strategic poll showing Labor’s policies favoured over the Coalition’s on tax (40% to 34%) and housing (40% to 27%) (UPDATE: This is actually a new survey of 801 respondents, conducted “in the days after” the weekend poll). There is also a characteristically thorough review of the polling over the past few months by Macquarie University academic Murray Goot at Inside Story.
I’m hoping to do a bit more over the coming two-and-a-half weeks by way of probing into the innards of recent poll results, starting by focusing on regional breakdowns from RedBridge Group’s four federal polls for this year, which helpfully use the same classifications employed by the Australian Electoral Commission. The table below shows combined party vote shares for these four regions at the 2022 election, together with their deviation from the national result, then repeats the exercise for the four RedBridge polls published so far this year, followed by a measure of how much these relativities have changed. So for example, the Coalition is up two points in “provincial”, but this translates to no change in the third table because it’s also up two points overall.
The results suggest Labor’s biggest improvement has come from the “rural” category, which might be thought unhelpful for them, raising the spectre of unproductive improvements in safe conservative seats. In point of fact though, the AEC employs the term loosely enough to encompass a number of important seats: Gilmore, Hunter, Eden-Monaro, Lingiari, Leichhardt, Lyons and McEwen. To the extent that outer metropolitan might nonetheless be thought most strategically important, the small-sample results from the four polls individually offer some suggestion that it is here Labor’s improvement has been strongest, despite Peter Dutton’s best efforts: Labor’s successive two-party preferred results have been 45%, 53%, 53% and 55%, whereas inner metropolitan and provincial have recorded little change.
Peter Dutton is the version 4.0 of John Howard. He embodies the worst instincts and characteristics of John Howard. He is programmed to destroy everything in his way.
As someone said how can you expect a person, who will not help his son when he can, to help Australia.
I always see politicians at election time blaming each other and pointing fingers and sometimes I wonder if they really believe that people are that stupid.
Generally the electorate isn’t, I was genuinely surprised at Abbot being elected but that is about the only time (1975 not included, I was two elections too young for that) I was shocked at an outcome (usually retrospective analysis clearly indicates the reasons why a given party wins).
The electorate isn’t stupid, irrespective of the mouth breathing sensationalists from Fox News shouting about the world ending any time the Libs aren’t in government, the average voter can remember back three or four years to the toxic Morrison Government.
Fess
The far right in Victoria have targeted our state due to the fact that the liberal party has been next to useless for the past 25 years
The focus on State Labor and Daniel Andrews, by these groups,was what I would consider derangement. Of course, add the pandemic to the mix and the Murdocuh media, it was diabolical.
Not forgettiing the alliance with the Murdoch press and the liberals.
For eg.
You may have heard about the young cyclist who collided with car being driven by Daniel Andrews partner before they were even in govt in early 2013.
Fast forward to now. The cyclist is apparently taking Andrews to court based on some cover up conspiracy.
Turns out he has had no control over the lawsuit. It’s been run by the liberals.
This is what we have had to deal with here in Victoria for the past 10 years.
It came from janes
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/air/indonesia-mulls-options-after-russia-seeks-access-to-air-force-base
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Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 7:16 am
Dutton pisses off Indonesia. Great.
”
Patricia K asked Dutton “are you verballing Indonesian President?”
I want PB RWers to explain why verballing Indonesian President is OK?
Easy to observe the derangement syndrome here in Victoria.
Venture onto sky after dark or read the Herald scum. It will inform the cray cray against “woke” Victoria.
Apparently being stupid about a report about Russian planes is the hill Dutton and Hume want to die on. Their (political) funeral.
You can already see that Dutton is going to launch into a blustering spiel about it at the debate to try and manufacture something, anything, and Albo is going to destroy him about it.
Australia should not be approving new coal, but should be approving and expanding gas.
Taxed or reserved or not, the collapse of the American system means Australia has the opportunity to be the primary energy guarantor to East Asia, signalling that we are a trade (not conflict) nation and working along side Japan, Korea and China on a new economic network.
There will be some imperfections – we’ll buy chinese EVs but protect certain key industries of our own, but that is a clear expectation that most countries have.
From the morning roundup: “China won’t talk if US doesn’t show respect”.
This lack of respect is a fundamental failing in Trump’s version of diplomacy. Just look at his treatment of Zelensky, overtures on Greenland and Panama, reference to Canada as the 51st state and referring to Trudeau as “Governor”.
Trump cannot change, so China will treat him with the contempt he has earned.
It would be possible to draw comparisons to Dutton’s performance while Immigration Minister in dealings with Pacific nations, but that may be a bit harsh. Diplomacy is certainly not his – or his party’s – strong suit. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-11/dutton-overheard-joking-about-sea-levels-in-pacific-islands/6768324
Meanwhile Biden is speaking publicly about social security.
GA – Muslim advocacy group to preference Greens above Labor in some seats despite disagreement on religious freedom
Muslim Votes Matter will be preferencing Greens above Labor in the Victorian seats of Wills and Bruce, Queensland seat of Moreton, the South Australian seat of Sturt, and independents in the western-Sydney seats of Blaxland and Watson.
“Guardian Australia has also confirmed the political party launched by the former Labor senator Fatima Payman, who has a strong personal brand in suburbs with high Muslim populations, Australia’s Voice, will also encourage voters to preference the Greens above her former party and the Liberals on Senate ballot papers.
:::
Muslim Votes Matter said it did not agree with the Greens’ position, but was satisfied with their engagement.”
The second Trump said that other world leaders where lining up to kiss his backside was when he lost any chance of China (or Europe or Canada/Mexico or any other self respecting political leader) entering into meaningful dialogue.
To do so means you are framing yourself as kissing Donalds ring and that would be a kiss of death (and not only because ol’ Donny’s faecal incontinence).
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Socratessays:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 7:17 am
Compliments for Labor are due to Richard Marles yesterday for getting on the phone to Indonesia so quickly to shoot down the Russian aircraft scare by Dutton. Now an Indonesian defence committee MP has confirmed it can’t happen.
“ Member of Commission I of the Indonesian House of Representatives, Major General TNI (ret.) TB Hasanuddin, emphasised that the establishment of foreign military bases in Indonesian territory would be a violation of the constitution.
“ Our constitution and various laws and regulations expressly prohibit the existence of foreign military bases,” he said in a statement.
“The establishment of foreign military bases will only drag Indonesia into geopolitical games that are counterproductive to world peace.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/15/australia-pm-voices-concern-after-report-russia-requested-access-to-indonesia-air-force-base
So Dutton’s claim was BS from the start.
”
Indonesia was one of the founding members of ‘The Non Aligned Movement” (aka the third way) along with India and Egypt.
Well NAM is now moribund is another story.
So I am not surprised
“ Our constitution and various laws and regulations expressly prohibit the existence of foreign military bases”
Although Suharto was US favourite dictator in Asia, he did not go against the constitution by allowing US to have base in Indonesia.
That USA has around 770 military bases around the world is mind boggling. But that is another story.
Amy’s Live Blog
“Other than the Greens, we haven’t seen policies to help renters this election, despite the fact that more people will rent for longer.
AAP reports on the rental situation (and imagine how impossible this would be for someone on Jobseeker, living 38% under the poverty line)
With rents rising nearly 40 per cent in the past five years cities are becoming hubs for larger households as international students lead the charge of living together.
Housing has become a battleground for the major political parties jockeying to appeal to first-time homebuyers in particular, but renters continue to do it tough.
Advertised rental listings remain well below average, property data firm CoreLogic says in its Quarterly Rental Review released on Wednesday.
About 99,000 rental properties were listed nationally over four weeks, more than 22 per cent less than normal for this time of year.
“With affordability stretched, many renters are adjusting by staying in shared accommodation or delaying independent living, which in turn reduces net rental demand,” CoreLogic senior economist Kaytlin Ezzy said.
Since March 2020, national rents have climbed 38.4 per cent or the equivalent of an extra $182 per week, averaging $9442 annually.
Vacancy rates have tightened to 1.6 per cent in March, down from 2.0 per cent in December.”
Is Dutton still hoping to get elected so he can kiss Trumps Ass?
Dutton and co are playing games with our security.
They should be nowhere near the seat of power.
The point is Trump’s foreign/trade policy is framed entirely around thuggery.
He, and those around him, think the US both does too much, but is also indispensable… which leads to where we are now. It’s a shakedown for $$ to fund deep and unaffordable tax cuts. The only way for manufacturing to return to the United States is either to create an economic bubble in which the US exists completely separate from the rest of the world with non-reality based markets/wages etc … or to make life easier for corps by forcing wages for workers down … thinking it will fundamentally reset things… I mean I know the big end resents paying people beyond the bare minimum.
It’s not smart and Trump’s tendency to buckle or change tack violently isn’t a sign of flexibility or agility … it’s fear.
Dutton is playing a very silly and reckless game – desperation. Only reflecting what has always been said about Dutton he’s a political animal only – there’s no policy brain – just reactive and what he thinks will give him the biggest political benefit.
Jane’s claims that the request was made to the office of Minister of Defence Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin from Sergei Shoigu in February 2025. Shoigu used to be the Russian Defence minister and is now Secretary of the Security Council (one of those promote someone out of the way moves).
Their claimed source was multiple persons in the Indonesian defence ministry, so I am guessing there is some internal tension with into that department. Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin is an old friend of the President and probably didn’t get the job by merit.
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GoldenSmaugsays:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 9:16 am
From the morning roundup: “China won’t talk if US doesn’t show respect”.
The second Trump said that other world leaders where lining up to kiss his backside was when he lost any chance of China (or Europe or Canada/Mexico or any other self respecting political leader) entering into meaningful dialogue.
To do so means you are framing yourself as kissing Donalds ring and that would be a kiss of death (and not only because ol’ Donny’s faecal incontinence).
”
I raised this ‘kiss my ass’ point a few times. Strangely, nobody on PB said anything about it till now.
I think other countries will now sit out the 90 day ‘pause’ period to see what Trump does or quietly make arrangements in the background to counter Trump moves in future.
As I posted earlier
Xi has Trump in his sights with his metaphorical gun
Xi and China are winning and Trump and US are losing
Trump is like a deer caught in the headlights of a car driven by Xi
Xi has Trump by his metaphorical balls and squeezing them slowly
Come what may Russia will not go against China on Trump requests
Xi is holding all the cards, weak and strong, but Trump is holding one weak card.
China is a dictatorship and Chinese are used to suffering whereas US is still a democracy and the threshold of US people is much lower.
Dutton’s ‘Trump’ moment yesterday when he gobbed off over what seems clear to be Russian interference in our election, was yet another clear example of him being highly unqualified to be PM.
Lib partisans should abort abort abort voting for this guy this time around and rather vote for a libertarian or conservative teal.
The stupidity here in Victoria from the right side of politics can be seen in their transport policies or lack there of.
First there was the fight tooth and nail against sky rail (which as John Faine used to say on air repeatedly was 10 times cheaper than going under ground). Now it is the wailing about the SRL.
If I were in at Liberal Party HQ, I’d be looking at trying to complete the SRL especially North and West as a first priority. Doing as much above ground as possible. There’s probably more opportunities to do the sections between the airport and Fawkner/Reservoir above ground or as sky rail.
Look for opportunities to build transport corridors as separated Bus routes that can be upgraded to Rail/light rail opportunities. The Aurora Corridor comes to mind here as does a few of the powerline corridors around Cranbourne and Syndenham. More can be done for less money – this would increase the value of the land and allow for denser home building and encouraging of hubs for emplyoment.
The days of building more roads, more freeways and encouraging more sprawl does not solve the problem, it is the problem..
Marles’s immediate phone call to his oppo in Indonesia was a technical breach of the Caretaker Convention (FWIW), which Dutton earned through his blatant attempt to make political capital out of the situation. I doubt that Dutton is able to take issue with Marles on it.
It also showed the two parties’ differing approaches to diplomacy versus political point-scoring very nicely.
As I understand it, the 20 Redbridge seats were chosen on the criterion of marginality – but they they can be segregated also by demography.
Individual seat data is not available, but I assume that the changes that are occurring in TPP amount to reciprocal behaviour of ALP and Coalition – one up, the other down, other “parties” staying steady.
Alpha Zero @ #70 Wednesday, April 16th, 2025 – 9:32 am
The Liberals seem to hate the SRL so much that they’d be willing to spend billions to demolish everything built so far out of spite if they get elected in November 2026 and use the East-West Link as justification.
I’m always uncomfortable with political organisations that are primarily based on a religious faith and I avoid them.
Parliament and religion don’t mix well.
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Ute Man is the Coalition’s favourite political figurine but he’s a fraught mascot By Annabel Crabb
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-16/utes-fuel-efficiency-tax-coalition-excise-dutton-election/105174100
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At last someone brought it up.
Ute Man became the most revered man of LNP. He is revered even more than Australian military man.
We have now come to such a stage where 1 in 3 cars Utes but the Tradies who use Utes do not constitute about 10-15% of population.
“AI Overview
+6
In Australia, approximately 12.9% of the employed resident population are categorized as “Technicians and Trades Workers”. This includes a range of trades like electricians, carpenters, plumbers, and other skilled workers. While the precise percentage of “tradies” (a common term for these workers) within the broader population is not explicitly stated in the search results, it’s clear that they make up a significant portion of the workforc”
I live in the Sturt electorate in SA, which apparently could flip from its historical blue to red. The Liberals have been conspicuous by their absence in election material sent to me or stuffed into my letterbox, other than the deceptive postal vote thing. The ALP and Independent (teal?) candidate are the only ones who seem to be trying. You would think the Liberals might have tried to retain this electorate, but they resigned to losing it.
Arky, unbelievable to read this morning that Hume has doubled down and is running with stop the planes, they are gluttons for punishment.
Victoria @ #52 Wednesday, April 16th, 2025 – 9:07 am
Wow, I’d agree that is quite some derangement. No wonder the state Liberals are crazy, they clearly buy into this nonsense.
Fidel Castro took his revenge.
And it appears a ex-Communist and a ex-KGB agent became US President friend.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 9:38 am
I’m always uncomfortable with political organisations that are primarily based on a religious faith and I avoid them.
Parliament and religion don’t mix well.
________
I am in strong agreement with you on this, Rex.
So, let’s review the state of play in this campaign so far …
Both Labor’s and the COALition’s energy policies will see emissions continue to rise. Labor perhaps less so – but no guarantees, since it is really up to their Fossil fuel financial supporters rather than the parties and their policies.
Both Labor’s and the COALition’s economic policies will see the cost of living continue to rise. Labor perhaps less so – but no guarantees, since it is the RBA and a couple of large domestic cartels that will determine our cost of living, not the parties or their policies.
Both Labor’s and the COALition’s housing policies will see house prices increase. Labor perhaps less so – but no guarantees, since house prices will be determined by increases in demand without a corresponding increase in supply rather than the parties and their policies.
Both Labor’s and the COALition’s defence policies will lead to Australia becoming less secure, by putting so much of our defence spending into imaginary submarines and relying on an increasingly unstable and erratic “ally” to defend us instead of planning to defend ourselves. The COALition perhaps less so, since they also intend to buy some shiny new jet fighters – but no guarantees, since those fighters would have to come from that same unstable and erratic “ally”. The one who has just started a trade war with our largest trading partner and is also threatening to invade a couple of their other “allies”.
Both Labor’s and the COALition’s environmental policies will lead to more environmental degradation. Labor perhaps less so – but no guarantees since if Tanya ends up being environment minister again, Albo will no doubt continue to churlishly overrule her every decision.
There’s more, but I think you get the gist. Which is that it doesn’t really matter which of the bipartisan factions you preference above the other, with their current weak-as policies things are unlikely to improve much.
The most important thing is to use your first preferences to ensure a stronger cross bench, to strengthen both parties policies. It’s time to install a backbone into our parliament.
So true.
The Coalition now looks to be a conclusively dire position. For Labor to be favoured by that much when it comes to the competing housing policies, combined with Dutton continuing to demonstrate a profound lack of judgement, or perhaps even interest in fostering respectful international relations… the Liberals have run out of time.
Even if he drops a big policy, it is difficult to see how that can move the polls given the trust issues that come from recently backflipping on policies and a nuclear policy that is half dead and half alive. If their housing policy were more popular, then together with the gas reservation policy they would have a chance at having enough to build on, but that isn’t where they are. Even for a lot of voters who either detest or are throughly unimpressed with Labour, the Coalition have an election campaign that screams ‘We’re not ready to govern.’
As a side note, a few days ago when I saw Insiders, I noticed that James Paterson’s proportions and positioning meant that his head looked like it had been photoshopped onto his body. It was weird.
US Cartoons:
P1 same-sameing again.
New polls are always welcome during an election campaign. Although we have the Easter weekend coming up, the next set of polls will be especially significant. The most interesting thing about Savva’s column today is its clear indication of problems within Dutton’s campaign team. Although not said explicitly , you might reasonably think there are some disturbing internal polling numbers leading to the trouble in the ranks.
Bizzcan @ #57 Wednesday, April 16th, 2025 – 9:11 am
So ee should export more gas but also buy Chinese EV’s to salve our conscience while we do so?
Unbelievable. 🙁
“you might reasonably think there are some disturbing internal polling numbers leading to the trouble in the ranks.”
I hope you’re right. I badly want to see some marginals polling.
Mick says:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 9:53 am
P1 same-sameing again.
__________
To be fair, Player One did lead with Labor wasn’t “perhaps” as bad as the Coalition followed by all the qualifiers, caveats and walkbacks 😉
– AP
This could become a defining issue of Trump’s presidency. If Trump instructed Bukele to return Garcia to the US, he’d have him returned immediately. This issue goes to the rule of law & the rights of an immigrant who was granted protection from deportation by a judge in 2019. He had been living in Maryland for 15 years before being deported due to an administrative error, to a prison which is the pits.
“sprocket_says:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 7:23 am
Revisionist
The Redbridge breakdown sample over the 3 months increases to reduce the MOE. And with a whopping Labor victory being touted, some reversion to the mean may be a risk.”
Thanks Sprocket but that doesn’t really address my concern
The Feb numbers are almost meaningless now but for a reference point for how the numbers have changed since then (at least the direction).
I’d cop the higher MOE over the last one or two polls and just consider how it coheres with other relevant recent polling and approaches (i.e Yougov MRP ?
I don’t think Jane Hume was doubling down on “stop the planes” this morning. I watched her on ABC News. She was doing her best to compensate for Dutton, but her heart wasn’t in it. The ABC couch comperes were embarrassed listening to it.
Anyway, do I think Dutton won any votes on this issue? Nope. Lost a few, more likely.
Who do you trust.
So, Russians requested access to an airbase in Indonesia. Thats something between the Russians and Indonesians. Whatever the discussions, the Indonesians, when asked politely and directly by Australia, have said that No, its not going to happen. Fine.
Certainly no incompetence or inappropriate behavior here by the Govt. Did they know about the Jane’s article ??
Probably, but the LAST thing they are going to do is play it up in public and even take a chance on appearing to be pushing / bullying the Indonesians to refuse a request, or even decide anything according to Australia’s time-frame. Its about showing respect for a sovereign nation, and a relationship that’s VERY important to Australia.
So yup, Dutton playing this into the election campaign is deeply inappropriate behavior as far as Australia’s international relations.
I hope Bluey marks the coalition down by a couple of points for the day on this one. 🙂
You can’t make these things up.
Last week, Trump signed an executive order “Restore Shower freedom”.
Seriously guys I am not kidding.
Barry Cassidy on his podcast has talked down how much impact the debate has on the election. Where rehearsed lines and a cynical public who don’t bother tuning in don’t have as much sway with the public as you might think.
Ironically I thought the debate where the politcal candidate lost had the most impact. Andrew Peacock strong performance against Bob Hawke was believed to be a factor in the Liberals gaining seats in 1984. I personally thought Kim Beazley saved seats for Labor with his excellent performance against John Howard in the loss in 2001 where are nervous public was shaken after 9/11.
pithicus says:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 9:57 am
“you might reasonably think there are some disturbing internal polling numbers leading to the trouble in the ranks.”
I hope you’re right. I badly want to see some marginals polling.
_______
Look to the Redbridge 20 seat tracking polling as it is publicly available. Wave three is 4-9 April so pretty fresh.
“Across the 20 seats RedBridge estimates Labor now leads the Coalition 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent compared to March when the Coalition led 50.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent and February when it led 52 per cent to 48 per cent…In these seats the Government is also now polling better than it did at the 2022 election and according to Accent’s Dr Shaun Ratcliff is now close to winning a majority in its own right.”
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/federal-election/shock-poll-lands-another-blow-to-peter-duttons-election-campaign/news-story/11c7150722a1d8e8753c20657da564b3
More analysis here:
https://theconversation.com/newspoll-steady-but-albaneses-ratings-jump-swing-to-labor-in-marginal-seats-254445
Ahhhh. Ute man.
Now the PHEV FBT exemption has ended, the ALP could jump in and offer some inducements on the new PHEV Utes (wink, nudge). These vehicles recognise a tradie will take their ute for R&R – 100km of EV range gets you around town with spare to run some kit on site, and for offroad, touring, long distant jobs or towing the ICE takes over and the electric assists.
They are new models so some work needed to fine tune them (the GWM doesn’t currently have a spot for the spare tyre for example). But there is a market here. And they have advantages over straight ICE beyond just the ability to run on EV mode.
Rev heads, tradies and regional peeps are starting to take notice of these so the car reviewer youtubers of all stripes (not just the inner city types) are posting things like the below for the GWM. A mate has the BYD Shark PHEV.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaNC5bgL3Tc
Cheers Griff
I suspect things will get really ugly really quickly if Trump starts sending citizens to concentration camps in foreign countries.