The second of three leaders’ debate will be hosted by the ABC from 8pm this evening, to be moderated by David Speers. It was also announced on Monday that the third will be held on Sunday, April 27, a week out from polling day, to be conducted by the Seven Network and moderated by Mark Riley. On the polling front, Nine Newspapers has further results from the Resolve Strategic poll showing Labor’s policies favoured over the Coalition’s on tax (40% to 34%) and housing (40% to 27%) (UPDATE: This is actually a new survey of 801 respondents, conducted “in the days after” the weekend poll). There is also a characteristically thorough review of the polling over the past few months by Macquarie University academic Murray Goot at Inside Story.
I’m hoping to do a bit more over the coming two-and-a-half weeks by way of probing into the innards of recent poll results, starting by focusing on regional breakdowns from RedBridge Group’s four federal polls for this year, which helpfully use the same classifications employed by the Australian Electoral Commission. The table below shows combined party vote shares for these four regions at the 2022 election, together with their deviation from the national result, then repeats the exercise for the four RedBridge polls published so far this year, followed by a measure of how much these relativities have changed. So for example, the Coalition is up two points in “provincial”, but this translates to no change in the third table because it’s also up two points overall.
The results suggest Labor’s biggest improvement has come from the “rural” category, which might be thought unhelpful for them, raising the spectre of unproductive improvements in safe conservative seats. In point of fact though, the AEC employs the term loosely enough to encompass a number of important seats: Gilmore, Hunter, Eden-Monaro, Lingiari, Leichhardt, Lyons and McEwen. To the extent that outer metropolitan might nonetheless be thought most strategically important, the small-sample results from the four polls individually offer some suggestion that it is here Labor’s improvement has been strongest, despite Peter Dutton’s best efforts: Labor’s successive two-party preferred results have been 45%, 53%, 53% and 55%, whereas inner metropolitan and provincial have recorded little change.
Hullo Brawler.
Thanks, but don’t stick your neck out on my account.
sprocket_ @ #791 Wednesday, April 16th, 2025 – 9:26 pm
As a woman his overt attempted bullying of the Prime Minister had me, by turns, fearing him and angry at him.
I tried the best I could to keep the spirit of your PB incarnation alive and well Bushfire Bill.
At times I went too close to the sun but I wouldn’t change a thing.
Just saw Tom Gleeson on the weekly as Peter Dutton, priceless should be on youtube, says just what we were all thinking
Would have been nice to have at least one multiparty debate at some point in this campaign. You’d think it’s time for one now that a third of voters vote other.
Will the ABC have their own polling on who won tonight’s debate?
Imacca, interesting story on the US plan to use tariff negotiations to get the rest of the world to apply pressure on China.
The US really need to take a look at other countries’ balance of trade before they leap in on this notion. We, for example, could not possibly turn against China to suck up to a largely inconsequential trading partner – the US.
Might work with north and south american countries, but unlikely to win any friends.
It’s like the school bully recruiting for his street gang.
The after debate crew on ABC voicing their opinions are no different from us right here on PB.
They may have some name recognition but that’s about it!
Their thoughts and opinions count no more than ours right here.
The only difference is they are being paid for it.
Unfortunately the ill informed are watching.
11 days of campaigning to go (excluding easter/anzac) and Dutton sliding slowly and taking libs with him.
Bludgeoned Westie @ #806 Wednesday, April 16th, 2025 – 9:44 pm
There’s comments here from people, some of them quite weird:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-16/federal-election-2025-leaders-debate-live-dutton-albanese/105180768#live-blog-post-169923
“As a woman his overt attempted bullying of the Prime Minister had me, by turns, fearing him and angry at him.”
That’s interesting. It would make it difficult for Dutton to win any debate on substance because of his demeanour/personality. Especially with women.
I didn’t watch it BTW.
A song for Albo after tonight
https://youtu.be/rz4Dd1I_fX0
Even Nath is back bushfire bill.
Man with big stick has been very conciliatory with our collective resurrections of late.
I wonder if the poor man’s entropy -greensborugh growler- will ever walk the same path of PB redemption ?
“ Dutton’s ex-colleagues from Qld police didn’t hold Dutton in high regard and tonight’s debate won’t have changed that lack of regard”
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I expect there is a gift basket of Pal waiting for him in Dutto’s Green Room from da boyz in the Qld Flying Squad. …
I avoided it too, because I can’t stand Dutton and I can’t stand David Speers either, and as for Patricia Karvelas, the adjective “lightweight” comes to mind.
Amy R’s Live Blog
https://live.australiainstitute.org.au/2025/04/australia-institute-live-day-19-of-the-2025-election-campaign/
“The debate ends and again, there is no major win, no screw ups, and no inspiring moments.
So you would probably give it to Anthony Albanese (if that matters) but maybe this isn’t a format that serves us any longer?
There was also no questions on how Australia would treat Israel moving forward (which is something that a voter asked in the Sky debate), how either party would act on poverty (raising the rate has not been mentioned at all this campaign, what are the long term plans for the future and how we plan on dealing with a changing geopolitical world.
But that is indicative of this campaign isn’t it? Small targets, small ideas, big utes.”
Andy are you still mad with me? If so please don’t be.
AR
“Everyone is on a unity ticket with Aukus.
Yippee”
“Q: Mr Albanese, do you trust Donald Trump?
Albanese:
Yeah. I have no reason not to.”
The ABC post-debate confab was superficial and just plain bad.
Why bother?
Bring back the worm
When was I ever mad at you comrade?
I was just concerned then I checked into to bludger the other morning to discover you had been going off like a frog in a sock all night and hadn’t yet stopped. Perplexed that along the way you gave me a little rat-a-tat-tat drive-by – which was particularly odd, given that as far as I can recall we hadn’t crossed swords on anything for yonks. Ever since you came back actually.
R U OK?
Andy is camera-shy tonight.
Poll shows Australians hate Trump policies and have lost trust in US, but still strongly believe in alliance (Michelle Grattan article)
https://theconversation.com/poll-shows-australians-hate-trump-policies-and-have-lost-trust-in-us-but-still-strongly-believe-in-alliance-254587
More details here
https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/report/2025/pre-election-release/
Andy, as Keating would say ‘we all shared in that mistake’ .
Which is the closest I’d ever get to an admission of guilt. Back to normal now comrade ?.
Trump on receiving end..biggly
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DGqIPTapwWR/?igsh=OXM3bTFwNHRqNDNp
Been Theresays:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 9:45 pm
The after debate crew on ABC voicing their opinions are no different from us right here on PB.
They may have some name recognition but that’s about it!
Their thoughts and opinions count no more than ours right here.
The only difference is they are being paid for it.
Unfortunately the ill informed are watching.
___________________
As i posted several hours ago, its not “the worst election ever”, its the “worst covered election ever”.
pithicus @ #811 Wednesday, April 16th, 2025 – 9:47 pm
I was just giving you my visceral reaction to the guy. Absent a comment on the content of what he was saying. He just came over as overbearing. One of those sort of men.
Pegasussays:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 9:50 pm
Amy R’s Live Blog
https://live.australiainstitute.org.au/2025/04/australia-institute-live-day-19-of-the-2025-election-campaign/
There was also no questions on how Australia would treat Israel moving forward (which is something that a voter asked in the Sky debate)
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Fuck me, Australia institute is not a credible outfit anymore – 6 hours ago when Labor was nailing their Indonesia response, AI’s headline was “stop talking international, we need to talking housing!” (Something you posted).
Now AI is shifting the goalposts and is puting Israel as #1 priority? Just reposting of greens talking points at this point.
Andy I could never be angry at you. My old uncle who set a record 13 failed submissions for QC/SC consideration before finally succeeding wouldn’t have a bar on you.
Infact when I had a brief career as a corridor crawler in Sussex st as a 19 year old kid in the summer of 03-04 he got me a banal researching gig as Lexis nexis. It was 2 decades after this time that I finally reversed engineered the fact that I had already written of the good Andy !
I wish I had more enjoyment in my brief legal career. 5 years of uni for just 2 as a practising shit kicker in small claims hearings
That is the really weird thing about the Liberal preselections. They are moving in the opposite direction of where they need to go to appeal to the electorate. The gap is growing not shrinking.
That’s completely true, but the Liberals are deluded by their perspective. They’ve seen everyone be completely wrong about Trump twice, their obituaries were read out in 2016 and especially 2019, and for most of the last year, just about every commentator who wanted to seem edgy and accurate and prescient were already proclaiming the Dutton 2025 victory. Even though the commentators were making the same mistake – predicting the government would lose – from the Liberals’ partisan perspective, it looks more like the media were biased against the Right and so now that they’re finally proclaiming a victory by the Right, the Right must be doing really well. The result in Germany and some other European elections would also be counted as evidence that they’re doing the right thing.
Also, there’s something else going on that isn’t the Liberals’ fault. Everyone wants to be pure nowadays, so people who should join the Liberals instead become Teals or in some cases Greens. So who is in the Liberals to advocate for a move back towards the centre? As well, the media range from outright right-biased to unbiased cowards who have egg on their face for predicting Labor outcomes that don’t eventuate (and who also haven’t noticed that government vs opposition is more important to voters than left vs right), so there’s just no one there to help them out.
So if you were in the Liberal party, worried about (what you would perceive as) woke progressive madness and Labor economic mismanagement, how would you actually be able to shake yourself from the wrong course? There’s no one really inside the party trying to challenge you, probably if you did shift, that’s when you get challenged, and all the evidence you like to see is pointing towards the idea that you’re on the right track. Even this election campaign, after the dust settles on their loss, but with shifts towards the Liberals in safe outer metropolitan Victorian Labor seats, they will say “the problems were that Dutton is a bad campaigner, but our strategy was basically right – look, we lost such-and-such a seat by 9% instead of 20%”.
They got here by watching events in the United States – so maybe events in the United States are the way to get out of here.
America is an important ally, but it’s impossible trying to reason and deal with any certainty with their current madman President. We need to keep our options open and not assume the USA will revert to business as usual at some point. Still keep close to them (though somewhat guarded) for now but we need unobstructed escape plans if the alliance becomes no longer tenable.
Back on the ground
Sounds like I didn’t miss much at the end
Won’t have helped Dutton halt Labor’s momentum
@Bizzcan:
“Fuck me, Australia institute is not a credible outfit anymore – 6 hours ago when Labor was nailing their Indonesia response, AI’s headline was “stop talking international, we need to talking housing!” (Something you posted).
Now AI is shifting the goalposts and is puting Israel as #1 priority? Just reposting of greens talking points at this point. ”
I have usually liked Amy over the journey but this is a miss. There’s no particular reason for the debate time to be used on Israel – both parties’ positions are extremely clear and haven’t changed. It wouldn’t elucidate anything.
I didn’t like the format.
Dutton raved on and on about things he wasn’t asked just to make sure he mentioned everything he could possibly get in.
Albo tried to do the same but only briefly and not with every answer.
Go back to one minute to answer each question, then dare I say, turn off their mic.
Then the opponent can have 20 seconds for a rebuttal, then turn off their mic.
I don’t mind Speersee most of the time, although I don’t watch Insiders much anymore, but both candidates should be told the moderator is the boss and he should be respected.
If, as Speers tried to do by reminding them to answer the question instead of waffling on, he should interrupt and tell them so.
Looking back on PBers comments and ABC’s follow up, I have to give it to Albo whereas I initially thought it may have been 50/50.
Who says comedy is dead?
From news.com.au –
“Sky’s Paul Murray was a bit more direct in his assessment.
“Dutton won by a country mile,” he said.
Joining him on the panel, Chris Kenny enthusiastically agreed, declaring Mr Dutton “smashed it out of the park”.
***************
I await their verdict on Dutton’s campaign late on election night!
98.6
IMO, it is 50/50
Bushfire Billsays:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 9:24 pm
To be fair to Dutts… he HAS got a bunch of losers in the party room underneath him.
============================================================
Only way he ever got the job!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-or-dutton-our-experts-deliver-their-leaders-debate-verdicts-20250416-p5ls7e.html
Albo wins . According to the sydney morning herald experts.
Only way he ever got the job!
Literally true…
… but also metaphorically.
David Crowe calls it for the PM: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-or-dutton-our-experts-deliver-their-leaders-debate-verdicts-20250416-p5ls7e.html
Meanwhile, Jenna Price called it for David Speers:
” Speers completely skewered Peter Dutton on nuclear energy and water use. And when the Opposition Leader spoke at a million miles an hour, Speers interjected: “I”m just trying to clarify your plans, Mr Dutton.” If Speers gets sick of journalism, he would make a brilliant year-nine classroom teacher.”
(Same link)
98.6says:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 10:34 pm
I didn’t like the format.
Dutton raved on and on about things he wasn’t asked just to make sure he mentioned everything he could possibly get in.
Albo tried to do the same but only briefly and not with every answer.
Go back to one minute to answer each question, then dare I say, turn off their mic.
Then the opponent can have 20 seconds for a rebuttal, then turn off their mic.
I don’t mind Speersee most of the time, although I don’t watch Insiders much anymore, but both candidates should be told the moderator is the boss and he should be respected.
If, as Speers tried to do by reminding them to answer the question instead of waffling on, he should interrupt and tell them so.
Looking back on PBers comments and ABC’s follow up, I have to give it to Albo whereas I initially thought it may have been 50/50
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These debates are content for the media to repost and “declare winners”. But otherwise its a waste of time to inform a voting decision (PB commentators, we thank you for your service).
On the prompting from some here i looked back at about 60 seconds of the ABC post election wrap. It had one media talking head complaining about the lack of detail, and the immediate following bemoaned about the “lack of vision”.
I mean what the fuxk do these media classes want, a 2 hour technical lecture compressed into a 30 second talking point? I’m gonna say, its only “vision” and “detail” when spoken by people’s preferred candidate.
“Detail” is such a vague term that there is no bar that could be set too high to squeeze a “not enough detail” conclusion.
“Vision” is a meaningless statement because it is entirely in the eye of the beholder. To me personally “vision” is noting less that a fully squared away CGE model (but im a crazy person) – to others here it is action on a highly specific single issue.
When Mr Albanese said that he had no reason not to trust Trump, I hope to God he was lying, or joking, or was being excessively diplomatic. Because if he really believes that, he’s either more of a MAGA than Jacinta Price, or is deaf, dumb and blind.
“https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-or-dutton-our-experts-deliver-their-leaders-debate-verdicts-20250416-p5ls7e.html”
I expected Parnell McGuinness to just give it the win to Dutton, so the grudging rage-filled backhanded compliment giving it to Albo is particularly amusing.
Who the hell is Nick Bonyhady, looks like a kid, I’ve never heard of him. He’s way too easily impressed if he thinks Dutton’s bluster about Indonesia was a positive for Dutton.
@Pedant – of course he’s being diplomatic. Being able to understand that is one of those “you must be THIS switched on to participate in adult political discussion” purity tests.
Murray & Kenny have to stop wiping Rupert’s a##e & get real jobs
Re dealing with Trump, the adage “don’t poke the bear” comes to mind. Of course Albo, in response to being asked about whether he trusts Trump, will give a bullshit diplomatic answer. No one with more than two grey cells trusts Trump.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/16/housing-health-the-economy-education-and-the-environment-our-assessment-on-the-key-questions-in-the-leaders-debate
“A point of difference between Labor and the Coalition has emerged in recent days: support for fee-free Tafe: Caitlin Cassidy”
Ladies and gentlemen (and non-binary folk)… our media classes are fuxking dementia riddled gold fish.
(Im happy to be corrected if Ms Cassidy is a new journo covering policy for the first time)
This is the sweetest victory of all… this is the sweetest …..
This is a victory for the true believers
Bizzcansays:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 11:20 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/16/housing-health-the-economy-education-and-the-environment-our-assessment-on-the-key-questions-in-the-leaders-debate
“A point of difference between Labor and the Coalition has emerged in recent days: support for fee-free Tafe: Caitlin Cassidy”
Ladies and gentlemen (and non-binary folk)… our media classes are fuxking dementia riddled gold fish.
(Im happy to be corrected if Ms Cassidy is a new journo covering policy for the first time.
———-
Yep might be Barry’s daughter.
I too liked the Worm!
One of my favourite Worm memories was watching a Keating-Hewson (I think) debate at right wing in-laws (DLP). Keating was trailing all night and I was praying he’d ‘win’ on the worm. Then towards the end he came through, got above 50 (neutral) and from memory finished 53-47.
The one problem was I would just be watching the worm on the screen, and if there was a sudden shift I would think ‘Damn, what did someone just say?’
I heard that the parties wanted it gone, maybe for that same reason. But it must have been useful for the campaign people to work out which phrases were good or bad.