The second of three leaders’ debate will be hosted by the ABC from 8pm this evening, to be moderated by David Speers. It was also announced on Monday that the third will be held on Sunday, April 27, a week out from polling day, to be conducted by the Seven Network and moderated by Mark Riley. On the polling front, Nine Newspapers has further results from the Resolve Strategic poll showing Labor’s policies favoured over the Coalition’s on tax (40% to 34%) and housing (40% to 27%) (UPDATE: This is actually a new survey of 801 respondents, conducted “in the days after” the weekend poll). There is also a characteristically thorough review of the polling over the past few months by Macquarie University academic Murray Goot at Inside Story.
I’m hoping to do a bit more over the coming two-and-a-half weeks by way of probing into the innards of recent poll results, starting by focusing on regional breakdowns from RedBridge Group’s four federal polls for this year, which helpfully use the same classifications employed by the Australian Electoral Commission. The table below shows combined party vote shares for these four regions at the 2022 election, together with their deviation from the national result, then repeats the exercise for the four RedBridge polls published so far this year, followed by a measure of how much these relativities have changed. So for example, the Coalition is up two points in “provincial”, but this translates to no change in the third table because it’s also up two points overall.
The results suggest Labor’s biggest improvement has come from the “rural” category, which might be thought unhelpful for them, raising the spectre of unproductive improvements in safe conservative seats. In point of fact though, the AEC employs the term loosely enough to encompass a number of important seats: Gilmore, Hunter, Eden-Monaro, Lingiari, Leichhardt, Lyons and McEwen. To the extent that outer metropolitan might nonetheless be thought most strategically important, the small-sample results from the four polls individually offer some suggestion that it is here Labor’s improvement has been strongest, despite Peter Dutton’s best efforts: Labor’s successive two-party preferred results have been 45%, 53%, 53% and 55%, whereas inner metropolitan and provincial have recorded little change.
If this result of labor’s taxation and housing policy being more popular than the coalition’s, is really representative of the mood of the electorate at large, we are then entering absolutely desperate territory for the Libs. With early voting starting next week, Labor with 2 pp vote almost identical to last election, and given that the coalition’s extremely populist effort last week did not fooled most voters, I think that now all Dutton can hope for is a last minute catastrophic implosion of Labor. This does not appear likely given how much better prepared Albo has look this time around and how discipline Labor has been during the campaign. I would assume then that Albanesi’s plan for tonight’s debate would be to play it safe, look very calm and prime ministerial and avoid any mayor blunder. Dutton in contrast, will need to take riskier shots at Albo and hope something hits a sore point and triggers a visceral response that will give him the chance to then push Albo off message and frustrate him. I personally would not like to be in Dutton’s shoes tonight!
From the previous thread:
Socrates,
Arky @ #1024 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 11:22 pm
@Hard Being Green:
“It was pretty a uncontroversial comment from Max on RN Breakfast this morning imo
Both major parties are saying they want house prices to keep increasing despite us being in a housing crisis. You can’t fix the problem as quickly if it’s getting worse”
It would fix the problem by creating new problems in much the same way as you could solve a high debt through high inflation but that inflation would then create new problems.
66% of Australian households own their home. This should immediately clue you in on why there’s a problem. In a democracy you can’t piss off the 66% to help the 33%. You can try but then you lose the election and whatever you did is undone and then some. See also carbon pricing.
And it’s even worse than that, because about 35% of Australian households (just over half the homeowners) have a mortgage, which means house prices dropping risks putting them underwater with their mortgage and all that jazz, so they’re particularly sensitive to it. The suggestion of house prices dropping is like the effect of an interest rate rise or interest rate cut on steroids.
And it’s even worse than THAT because if house prices drop, people largely will not sell their houses into the dip unless they have to, which is terrible for social mobility – being able to move for jobs, family, etc. And also holding back from selling like that would help prices to rise again anyway.
Hence – we need to solve the housing problem without “let’s crash the housing market and the paper wealth of 66% of Australian households” being within a bull’s roar of the actual solution.
This^
To which I can only add, prices will always go up, it’s by how much you need to be concerned about. Wages and salaries generally go up too. Wage increases are the mitigating factor to price rises. It’s what Labor is concerned with and what The Greens want you to forget about with their one-sided take on economic matters.
I think three years of avoiding tough questions in real press conferences is coming back to haunt Dutton.
Sky News doesn’t count!
I tell my stranger relations that Sky News is clearly out of touch with ‘ordinary Australians’ – they must be as they want and believe Labor will lose every election yet here we are with 6 out of 9 governments in Australia that are Labor.
Heard a few people discuss Canning as perhaps a more likely Labor gain than Moore. Could someone explain this thinking to me? Not too versed in WA dynamics
My memory might be deceiving me but those AEC classifications of electorates remind me of years ago some ranking system in health on degree of remoteness – and I seem to remember Noosa being ranked more remote than Wilcannia! Which was going to matter with funding and I think health care worker relocation costs or something like that.
Labor’s improvement in rural vote would be due to pandemic tree/seachangers – educated metropolitan folk moving to uneducated rural areas
You are possibly thinking of the Modified Monash Model.
https://www.health.gov.au/topics/rural-health-workforce/classifications/mmm
A few observations on house prices
1. The only way house prices fall dramatically is if there is a massive decrease in demand or increase in supply. I don’t see either of those things happening unless the economy collapses. Noting a large increase in supply would be a good thing
2. It’s a weird assumption that everyone who owns or is paying off their house is more concerned with house prices than addressing the inequality in the market
3. House price growth has outstripped wages growth for decades. The best way to close that gap is for wages to keep growing while house prices stagnate or experience a small decline
Effective housing policy should address both sides of the supply and demand equation i.e. build more houses while reducing demand e.g. by changing negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount as per Greens policy
Ezra Klein has been hitting it out of the park lately with his podcast. Here he talks with Thomas Friedman about the China/US relations and the tariff war.
And the rise of AI, climate change and global cooperation as the three driving issues of our time. And what these ‘dark factories’ springing up all over China are.
https://youtu.be/UqBa0hBAQBA?si=IxrtO1fs-Mll2BEE
EU gives staff ‘burner phones, laptops’ for US visits: https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/15/ec_burner_devices/
China won’t talk if U.S. doesn’t show respect, ex-official says: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/tariffs/2025/04/15/china-wont-talk-if-us-doesnt-show-respect-ex-official-says/
EU to ban Serbia if president joins Putin’s victory parade: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/04/15/eu-ban-serbia-if-president-joins-putin-victory-parade/
US to demand EU pulls away from China in return for cutting tariffs: https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/04/15/briefings-suggest-eu-faces-choice-between-us-and-china/
US blocking G7 statement denouncing Russia’s Sumy strike: https://kyivindependent.com/us-blocks-g7-statement-denouncing-russias-sumy-strike-bloomberg-reports/
Russian forces weaker than they claim, say Chinese POWs: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/04/14/russias-forces-not-strong-claim-captured-chinese-fighters/
Ukraine Unveils Laser Weapon That Can Down Cruise, Ballistic Missiles: https://thedefensepost.com/2025/04/15/ukraine-unveils-laser-weapon/
Tourism Pullback and Boycotts Set to Cost U.S. a Staggering $90 Billion: https://www.thedailybeast.com/tourism-pullback-and-boycotts-could-cost-us-a-staggering-90-billion/
A bigger hole: Trump has already spent $155bn more than Biden. Musk now claims DOGE only saved $150bn: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/musk-trump-bigger-debt-150-billion-b2733310.html
Republicans Less Trusted on Economy Than Democrats For First Time in Years: https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-less-trusted-economy-democrats-first-time-years-2059863
Signal War Plans Messages Disappear from CIA Director’s Phone: https://www.newsweek.com/signal-war-plans-cia-director-john-ratcliffe-messages-disappear-phone-2059775
Obama Comes Out Swinging Against Trump’s ‘Ham-Handed’ Harvard Demands: https://www.thedailybeast.com/obama-comes-out-swinging-against-trumps-ham-handed-harvard-demands/
Attorney General Pam Bondi refused to say whether President Donald Trump’s plan to deport American citizens to a Salvadoran prison is legal: https://www.thedailybeast.com/pam-bondi-gives-stunning-answer-when-asked-if-trumps-plan-to-jail-americans-abroad-is-legal/
Merwil Gutiérrez sent from New York to El Salvador prison although family says he has no criminal history or gang ties: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/15/merwil-gutierrez-venezuelan-teen-deported-el-salvador
Indiana mom brought gun to grade school and threatened lesbian teacher: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mom-arrested-bringing-gun-indiana-elementary-school-harassing-teacher-rcna201316
In a first, Japan issues cease-and-desist order against Google: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/04/15/companies/google-anti-monopoly-law/
X’s UK profits collapsed the year after Elon Musk’s takeover: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/15/x-twitter-profits-uk-collapsed-year-after-elon-musk-took-over
Nikki Savva on fire today..
For weeks, Peter Dutton has behaved like a man doing high-speed doughnuts in one of those monster utes, hoping the smoke from the burnouts will cover the wreckage left behind at his last stop.
First he was against working from home, then he wasn’t. First he wanted a series of referendums, then he didn’t. First he was gushingly pro-Trump, then he wasn’t.
After Donald Trump expressed contemptuous delight in having world leaders line up to kiss his arse, Dutton toned down his boast that he would be able to secure a better deal with the US president on tariffs.
Then along came Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, whom Dutton appointed as opposition Indigenous affairs minister in 2023 to destroy the Voice referendum. Price, a compelling speaker, gave white Australians permission to vote No.
Deploying those same skills, without even realising it and without a functioning political radar to sense the dangers, Price on Saturday parroted Trump’s slogan, promising the Coalition would “Make Australia Great Again”.
If he loses, that will be seen as one of the (many) key moments of the campaign. Price drove a nail into Dutton’s coffin. For those who believe in these things, it will be remembered as karma played out live in full technicolour.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-knives-are-out-dutton-has-to-win-over-voters-and-win-back-his-party-20250414-p5lrmf.html
Thanks for those regional breakdown numbers, William. I’ve found the RedBridge regional breakdowns very interesting, and I think the story we are seeing is that by focusing so much on the outer suburbs, Dutton has lost far more votes in regional/rural areas than he’s gained in the outer ‘burbs. And as you point out, while often written off as safe National seats, there’s actually quite a few regional swing seats especially what I’ve been calling the inner regional rings which surround Sydney and Melbourne. I think Dutton took these for granted, they certainly looked likely to move to the Coalition, but it seems now the ALP will probably comfortably hold many of them.
I’m convinced that the biggest issues in the provincial and rural areas are service delivery, and to give the ALP their due, they’ve actually done some stuff that’s going to improve rural/regional education and health service delivery. I think this is probably paying dividends. I ‘spoke we’ll have to wait until the election to know what the distribution of this shift looks like.
William
Thanks for the regional breakdown in the lead in article. That is interesting regarding Inner. Metropolitan seats as well. If I read it correctly the Redbridge results show the LNP declined -0.4% in these areas in Feb – April. That suggests The LNP has slim prospects of recovering the Teal seats if that is the result.
That means, barring a disaster for Labor in Outer Suburbs, there is no prospect Dutton will lead a majority government, and not much prospect of a minority government, as long as Dutton remains opposed to climate action and the Teals and Greens hold the BOP.
Snap Wombat, also a good point.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 6:50 am
Sprocket.. PB posters that continually hammer China need to listen.
I listened to a podcast prior to Biden winning .. it was with prospective China Policy WH advisers .. they were every last one of them China Hawks.. there was zero real difference between them & Trump.. none so myopic as an American( gross generalisation).. Ezra is also Myopic when it comes to analysing failures in US housing policy & the issues.. for example total inability to see how Europe approaches things.. Th yanks are born thinking they do everything BEST .
I think years ago a BHP ex said don’t go doing business in China unless you are prepared to lose intellectual property & your investment.. He wasn’t advocating to not go.. just go with your eyes open..
Dr Doolittle (from last night)
“ Are you noticing US policy re Ukraine? Serhii Plokhy would be appalled.
See Guardian Europe live blog for comments by Witkoff about scope for a deal, largely satisfying Putin’s real war aims, once he realised the obvious point that Ukraine could not be subjugated by Russia using force.
Very unlikely any NATO peacekeepers.”
—————————————————
Yes I have been watching it. Sadly I have found it too depressing to discuss ever since Trump’s “ambush” press conference with Zelensky in the White House a month ago. Under Trump Ukraine has few prospects of anything better than survival with its current land area held.
You are correct to point out that the bad policy to Ukraine started with Biden and Johnson back in 2022. Why some still believe in trusting Australia’s security to AUKUS, the product of the thinking of the same two individuals, combined with the self-deluded Morrison, I find incomprehensible.
I could go through all the engineering details to explain why AUKUS will never happen as promised, yet Albo and Marles keep repeating the same lies Morrison used to justify it. Now with Trump in charge, it only looks like a worse idea than it was to start with.
PS It would be great if Mark Carney can talk some sense into Albo after the Canadian election.
Some of us with mortgages have had our houses for more than a decade. We’re not in the third that would be threatened by negative equity unless house prices dropped by 80%.
Meanwhile our kids will be living with us forever because rents have smashed average incomes (picture is even less rosy if you look at a more realistic median income)…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-16/charts-show-how-fast-rent-has-outpaced-income-across-australia/105179340
Dutton pisses off Indonesia. Great.
Compliments for Labor are due to Richard Marles yesterday for getting on the phone to Indonesia so quickly to shoot down the Russian aircraft scare by Dutton. Now an Indonesian defence committee MP has confirmed it can’t happen.
“ Member of Commission I of the Indonesian House of Representatives, Major General TNI (ret.) TB Hasanuddin, emphasised that the establishment of foreign military bases in Indonesian territory would be a violation of the constitution.
“ Our constitution and various laws and regulations expressly prohibit the existence of foreign military bases,” he said in a statement.
“The establishment of foreign military bases will only drag Indonesia into geopolitical games that are counterproductive to world peace.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/15/australia-pm-voices-concern-after-report-russia-requested-access-to-indonesia-air-force-base
So Dutton’s claim was BS from the start.
” The table below shows combined party vote shares for these four regions at the 2022 election, together with their deviation from the national result, then repeats the exercise for the four RedBridge polls published so far this year, followed by a measure of how much these relativities have changed. ”
The problem with this analysis is the period it was taken over. There is almost a 4% change in 2PP between the Feb poll and the most recent poll.
How much does the analysis change if you drop out the Feb results? What about if you just used the two most recent results?
It’s actually only the last poll that would take in the election campaign and post budget (eg impact of the fuel excise bribe)
brett says:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 7:12 am
Beyond my level of comprehension… but…there is one & only one reason for rising rents ( & price of housing), decades of chronic under supply of housing.. the reason for that.. stupid obsession with building the most expensive type of of housing in the world..UNSUSTAINABLE SUBURBAN SHIT BOXES… to go with the unsustainable utes & suv’s
How many young professional people want to want to rent in Penrith..
Absolutely Brett
From the article
“The only jurisdiction where incomes have more or less kept pace with rent is the ACT, where rent increases have been capped since 2019. Under the rule, rent increases are limited to 10 per cent above the inflation rate for rents.
Rental households in the ACT have the highest average income of any Australian jurisdiction but pay only the fifth-highest amount in rent.
With a median rent of $595 a week, it is now cheaper to rent in the ACT than in regional Queensland, where the median rent has shot up from $380 a week in 2020 to $607 in 2024.
Ms Witte says the evidence from both the ACT and overseas shows that capping rent increases could not only ease pressure on renters but on the whole economy.”
Well done to Labor and the Greens for working together to get it done
Revisionist
The Redbridge breakdown sample over the 3 months increases to reduce the MOE. And with a whopping Labor victory being touted, some reversion to the mean may be a risk.
Did the Indonesian story yesterday come from someone in foreign affairs or the military who is aligned with the Liberals? I have my suspicions.
It smelt like an attempt to help Dutton, which disintegrated very quickly once Richard Marles jumped all over it.
Nice analysis, William – Thanks!
”
Rocket Rocketsays:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 5:53 am
I think three years of avoiding tough questions in real press conferences is coming back to haunt Dutton.
Sky News doesn’t count!
I tell my stranger relations that Sky News is clearly out of touch with ‘ordinary Australians’ – they must be as they want and believe Labor will lose every election yet here we are with 6 out of 9 governments in Australia that are Labor.
”
But, but, but, as per Steelydan Sky after dark represents closer to mainstream Australians
So a day ago Dutton pretended that the bank of Mum and Dad was closed for his son, or showed us Voltamore does not help his children.
Yesterday he made up stuff about Indonesia. A Russian base in Indonesia? Get real Russia can’t even win a war with their neighbor. Don’t have an operation air craft carrier and have a large portion of their remaining fleet locked up in a black sea port unable to move. Russians are coming is a bit of a joke.
I wonder what nonsense Dutton will offer today?
The SMH editorial this morning is scathing about the Coalition campaign so far, according to them “the worst in living memory”.
Dutton is awful, but I don’t think he’s being helped by the state Liberal divisions, particularly the one in NSW which is clearly leaking against various Liberal candidates including Scott Yung in Bennelong.
The South Australian Liberals are a basketcase, the WA Liberals clearly aren’t any more well resourced than they were in 2022, and we all know about the Victorian Liberals.
Niki Savva’s column is brutal. The knives are out for Dutton!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-knives-are-out-dutton-has-to-win-over-voters-and-win-back-his-party-20250414-p5lrmf.html
“Ms Witte says the evidence from both the ACT and overseas shows that capping rent increases could not only ease pressure on renters but on the whole economy.”
Yeah yeah, nice story, but it ignores that land tax and zoning laws are also factors.
Just ask BW.
And yes, including your son in the Liberal campaign for 2 days in a row and holding him up for ridicule from the press gallery – that was brain dumb stupid from Dutton or the idiots who advise him.
If Albo had done the same thing in regards to Nathan, the Murdoch press would have screamed about it for days on end.
Yep, the knives are out.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-knives-are-out-dutton-has-to-win-over-voters-and-win-back-his-party-20250414-p5lrmf.html
Another drop from the research team… perhaps works well in Queensland. In the Teal seats? Not so much.
Coalition MP Colin Boyce told a group of climate science deniers that blackouts were “a big political opportunity” and that he had urged fellow MPs to adopt a “do nothing strategy” that would allow power outages and build opposition to net-zero policies.
A video of Boyce, posted on YouTube, speaking to the Climate and Energy Realists Queensland group, includes comments by the Flynn MP that net-zero climate policies “need a rethink”.
He said the cohort of like-minded politicians opposed to the transition to renewables “is growing”.
“Politically, how do you sell that? That’s the problem,” Boyce told the meeting in December 2023.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/16/coalition-mp-colin-boyce-told-climate-science-deniers-blackouts-a-big-political-opportunity
Peter Dutton would be well advised to stay off the campaign trail today, avoid unscripted moments, and spend the day honing up his talking points for tonight’s debate.
Good Morning! Here’s your Campaign Week 3 Debate #2 Night News and Views Roundup.
Niki Savva! ‘Before Price’s weekend comments, there were murmurs about Angus Taylor positioning for a post-election challenge to Dutton’s leadership. By Sunday night, angry Liberals reported “the knives are out”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-knives-are-out-dutton-has-to-win-over-voters-and-win-back-his-party-20250414-p5lrmf.html
Voters back Albanese over Dutton on tax and housing plans.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-albanese-over-dutton-on-tax-and-housing-plans-20250415-p5lrzk.html
Among the gaffs, backtracks and walk-backs, the faltering competency of Liberal back-room strategists threatens to undermine Peter Dutton’s struggle to make his case for getting Australia back on track. SMH Editorial
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-party-machine-campaign-is-full-of-self-harm-20250415-p5lrtt.html
Ute Man is the Coalition’s favourite political figurine but he’s a fraught mascot By Annabel Crabb
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-16/utes-fuel-efficiency-tax-coalition-excise-dutton-election/105174100
Lucy Hamilton The Coalition commits to Christian Nationalism
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/the-coalition-commits-to-christian-nationalism/
Craig Emerson Why bagging China could deny Dutton crucial votes he needs to win
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/why-bagging-china-could-deny-dutton-crucial-votes-he-needs-to-win/
The decision to have Harry Dutton take centre stage on the campaign trail shows how eager the Dutton campaign is to soften the opposition leader’s image from that of a hard man politician to a dedicated father.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-and-son-why-harry-s-housing-issues-became-the-talk-of-the-campaign-20250415-p5lrtq.html
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been ambushed by alt-right video makers in the lobby of his Melbourne hotel, sparking safety concerns about the ability of extremists to infiltrate secure locations despite increased security on the campaign trail.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/campaign-security-concern-as-albanese-ambushed-by-alt-right-media-at-melbourne-hotel-20250415-p5ls23.html
Senior Greens have backed Adam Bandt’s leadership of the party even if it fails to retain its trio of seats in Brisbane in the face of a $7 million right-wing assault and a cash and brain drain to the teal movement.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bandt-s-leadership-in-spotlight-amid-7m-right-wing-assault-on-greens-20250415-p5lrrs.html
Muslim advocacy group to preference Greens above Labor in some seats despite disagreement on religious freedom. Muslim Votes Matter concerned about policy preventing religious schools from discriminating against teachers or students. Hmm.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/16/muslim-advocacy-group-to-preference-greens-above-labor-in-some-seats-despite-disagreement-on-religious-freedom
Brisbane Greens MP joins OnlyFans to ‘make people pay attention’ to HIV prevention drug policy
Exclusive: Stephen Bates spruiks free PrEP and PEP proposal on subscription platform best known for adult content, as well as on dating app Grindr
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/16/brisbane-greens-stephen-bates-onlyfans-hiv-drug-prep-pep
For Peter Dutton, his family too has long been off limits, in part amid the security threats he faces.
That was until this campaign, and the emergence of his son Harry, who answered a question at a press conference on Monday and again joined his father on the trail on Tuesday.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-15/campaign-trail-harry-dutton-peter-dutton-tanya-plibersek-polling/105178256
David Sarikaya is the Trumpet of Patriots candidate for the seat of Reid in Sydney’s inner west.
The party’s website claims he holds a PhD in psychology but does not mention he bought it online in a field unrelated to health services.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-16/trumpet-of-patriots-david-sarikaya-misrepresented-qualifications/105179728
Home truths: Housing policies are for show, but one side at least gets the problem. Ross Gittins
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/home-truths-housing-policies-are-for-show-but-one-side-at-least-gets-the-problem-20250415-p5lrw1.html
Ross Gittins Memo Dutton: Good economic managers don’t try to panic the punters
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/memo-dutton-good-economic-managers-dont-try-to-panic-the-punters/
Dutton, Albanese duck questions about policies that could ‘fuel the housing price fire’
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-refuses-to-answer-when-asked-if-he-ll-help-his-son-buy-a-house-20250414-p5lrln.html
Axing Labor’s free Tafe would mean fewer builders and higher house prices, experts warn
The Coalition remains opposed to the scheme, claiming it is ‘badly designed and poorly targeted’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/16/axing-labors-free-tafe-would-mean-fewer-builders-and-higher-house-prices-experts-warn
More RBA rate cuts are on the cards – for first home buyers that could be a blessing and a curse
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/15/more-rba-rate-cuts-are-on-the-cards-for-first-home-buyers-that-could-be-a-blessing-and-a-curse
Victoria’s hot seats LIVE updates: Statement earrings, hoodies, keep cups: It’s all about the campaign merch; Monique Ryan fury at ‘insulting’ action figure meme
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/victoria-s-hot-seats-live-updates-kooyong-in-full-swing-money-on-wheels-in-wills-20250414-p5lrhk.html
Both of Australia’s major parties are campaigning on cost-of-living issues, but experts say outer-suburban electorates are also facing problems associated with rapid population growth. Despite this growth, the infrastructure across the region has not kept up. Experts say these related issues will be a key issue this election.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-16/how-the-issues-sydney-western-growth-federal-election/105179610
Elections are no longer a binary contest – independents of all persuasions make for a noisier political discourse. Peter Lewis
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2025/apr/15/elections-are-no-longer-a-binary-contest-independents-of-all-persuasions-make-for-a-noisier-political-discourse
Coalition MP Colin Boyce told climate science deniers blackouts a ‘big political opportunity’
Boyce tells Climate and Energy Realists Queensland that opposition to renewables is growing and fellow MPs should adopt a ‘do nothing strategy’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/16/coalition-mp-colin-boyce-told-climate-science-deniers-blackouts-a-big-political-opportunity
Peter Dutton’s nuclear power plan could lead to major electricity shortages, analysis says.
Coalition’s proposal overestimates the reliability of Australia’s ageing coal generators, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis says
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/16/peter-duttons-nuclear-power-plan-could-lead-to-major-electricity-shortages-analysis-says
Nationals Leader David Littleproud is pushing for the removal of the civil rights of child offenders, with commentators suggesting racist allusions. Melissa Marsden writes.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/david-littleproud-hints-at-civil-rights-removal-for-indigenous-kids,19631
AUSVOTES ECONOMIC FACTS #6: Coalition taxing at a record high, not Labor
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/ausvotes-economic-facts-6-coalition-taxing-at-a-record-high-not-labor,19628
Debatable impact: Albanese and Dutton to face off again but experts question whether showdown will shift votes
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/15/debatable-impact-albanese-and-dutton-to-face-off-again-but-experts-question-whether-showdown-will-shift-votes
Explainer: When is the next leaders’ debate? How and where to watch Albanese v Dutton
PM and opposition leader to hold second election debate on the ABC at 8pm AEST on Wednesday 16 April. Here’s what to know about the debates and how to watch
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/10/second-leaders-debate-abc-australia-election-when-what-time-albanese-dutton-how-to-watch
Rebecca Huntley on the threat to democracy of isolation and distrust – Full Story podcast
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2025/apr/15/rebecca-huntley-on-the-threat-to-democracy-of-isolation-and-distrust-full-story-podcast
Zionist ties see Labor members betrayed in Victoria. By Peter Wicks
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/zionist-ties-see-labor-members-betrayed-in-victoria,19626
Court documents reveal explosive phone taps during ousting of Logan City Council bureaucrat
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-16/secret-phone-taps-logan-city-council-former-mayor/105146810
Australia must break ties with U.S. on defence. By Bevan Ramsden
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australia-must-break-ties-with-us-on-defence,19629
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Hugh White on what the next PM should tell Trump and defending Australia – without the US
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/politics-with-michelle-grattan-hugh-white-on-what-the-next-pm-should-tell-trump-and-defending-australia-without-the-us/
Peter Varghese The Trump effect is a wrecking ball, and we’re in the blast zone
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/the-trump-effect-is-a-wrecking-ball-and-were-in-the-blast-zone/
State Terror. A brief guide for Americans
Timothy Snyder
https://snyder.substack.com/p/state-terror
Kleptocracy, Inc. Under Trump, conflicts of interest are just part of the system.
By Anne Applebaum
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/04/trump-kleptocracy-autocracy-inc/682281/
EU countries push to Orbán-proof Russia sanctions. Hungary’s veto power could become meaningless under plans being drawn up by a group of capitals.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-countries-viktor-orban-proof-russia-sanction/
It’s not just British Steel. Here’s where the UK is hooked on China. Britain took back control of the steelmaker from a Chinese firm. But don’t expect a massive rethink of the China-addicted U.K. economy. Australia take note.
https://www.politico.eu/article/its-not-just-british-steel-heres-where-the-uk-is-hooked-on-china/
Le Pen is down but not out. The French firebrand’s chances of completely reversing her conviction may be small, but her political fate has not yet been fully decided.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-down-not-out-election/
JD Vance: Europe can’t be a ‘permanent security vassal’ of the US. The American vice president concurs with French sentiment that the continent needs to be militarily independent.
https://www.politico.eu/article/jd-vance-europe-permanent-security-vassal-united-states/
Pentagon’s ‘SWAT team of nerds’ resigns en masse. Employees of a defense tech unit say they were sidelined by DOGE. “Either we die quickly or we die slowly,” says the director.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/pentagons-digital-resignations-00290930
The IRS could see a mass exodus of up to 40 percent of its workforce through a combination of buyouts offered by the Trump administration and widespread layoffs, according to an internal memo obtained by POLITICO.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/irs-faces-mass-exodus-of-workers-00291696
Tariff carve-outs underscore weak US position in China trade war: ‘This is going to get really ugly’
With its electronics exceptions, the United States has demonstrated that it is more willing to bend than the Chinese.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/14/trump-china-tariff-carve-outs-weak-position-00008887
Opinion | 7 Critical Things Trump Doesn’t Understand about Putin
For the Russian strongman, the price of peace looks higher than the costs of war.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/15/putin-ukraine-reasons-war-00290138
Kamala Harris for governor? Poll shows how California voters feel about the idea. California’s Democratic voters cheer the potential of Harris for governor, but warning signs are lurking.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/poll-voters-kamala-harris-governor-run-00290514
New York City lawmakers sued Mayor Eric Adams on Tuesday over the opening of a federal immigration office at the city’s main jail facility, calling it a “naked attempt” to satisfy a quid pro quo.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/new-york-eric-adams-rikers-ice-00291533
‘Pro-Vegemite’: Albanese backs cafe owner as Canada cracks down on iconic spread
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pro-vegemite-albanese-backs-cafe-owner-as-canada-cracks-down-on-iconic-spread-20250415-p5lrxr.html
Australia’s lucrative online gambling industry continues to be regulated by six people in the Northern Territory, despite several of them having links to industry. Both federal Labor and the Coalition have pledged they will work to reform the industry if they win the election on May 3.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-16/nt-national-online-gambling-regulator-federal-election-albanese/105135600
What’s more vacuous than an endless vacuum? It’s Lauren Sánchez and Katy Perry’s party in space
The all-female Blue Origin flight on Monday broke boundaries and set records in the spouting of girlboss gibberish. By Marina Hyde
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/15/lauren-sanchez-katy-perry-space-blue-origin-female-flight
Cartoon Time!
Alan Moir
Mark David
Matt Golding
Simon Letch
Dionne Gain
Cathy Wilcox
Fiona Katauskas Why are so many world leaders silent on Gaza?
Pete Songi on Keir Starmer’s attempt to save British Steel at any cost
Ben Jennings on Donald Trump’s international trade tariffs
From the Internet
Enjoy!
Dutton seems to be flailing around in desperation now and making a bad situation worse by making false claims. Imagine he’ll be quite aggressive at the debate tonight which if so will probably also backfire. It’s hard to see how Dutton will perform respectably once the votes are counted.
The story about Russian planes based in Papua was published in Jane’s. Now that story had to have come from somewhere. So who leaked it? Or invented it? Either an Indonesian official who was uncomfortable with it. Or a western Intelligence source who wasn’t getting their theory on it paid attention to.
Thanks C@t.
Periodically I get these videos on my Tik Tok feed of people refusing police requests for anything from breath test to move ons because they believe they are sovereign citizens and don’t have to legally do what law enforcement asks.
Invariably 9 times out of 10 they are from Victoria. I’ve put it down to the COVID mandates from the Victorian government, which is odd because other governments had similar mandates (including the federal govt) yet it doesn’t seem to me that this sovereign citizen phenomena exists elsewhere.
B. S. Fairman @ #36 Wednesday, April 16th, 2025 – 8:17 am
Greg Sheridan probably reads Janes. Andrew Hastie. James Brown, Liberal candidate for Mackellar, too.
Though there was a suggestion doing the rounds that the information came direct to the Dutton campaign from Russia itself as a part of their attempts to destabilise Labor. Sounds a bit far-fetched but you never know these days.
‘Fess,
It seems that those agent provocateurs from the Far Right were linked to that Avi Yemeni character.
Give them the ability to cheaply record videos and just about any nutjob out there can garner an audience of gullible rubes. Especially if they get up close to power.
Amy R’s Live Blog
“But Labor is still opening up new fossil fuel mines, the one thing we know we have to stop. We can’t even get a major politician to say when they will stop opening up or expanding fossil fuel projects.”
If it came from Jane the story is now gone.
https://www.janes.com/search?indexCatalogue=site-search&searchQuery=Russian%20base
C@tmomma @ #38 Wednesday, April 16th, 2025 – 8:44 am
Of course it did. No substance and no possible substance – they just failed to factor in how easily it would be debunked, even with our corrupted media.
#weatheronPB
Bright sounds match the sky.
Clean, rich air wraps around me.
Good life is living.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-16/what-will-housing-promises-do-to-the-market/105179262
“Coates, Pawson and Garvin all say that doesn’t change unless there is structural tax reform.
“To be honest, we really need a much bigger readjustment of the tax settings for all housing property ownership. The elephant in the room here of course is the capital gains tax discount and negative gearing [for investors],” Pawson says.
Garvin says governments don’t like to talk about those incentives because they are used to build wealth, but that wealth only grows if house prices increase, which widens the gap young people have to jump to make it onto the property ladder.
Coates says halving capital gains discounts and winding back negative gearing would cause house prices to fall by less than 1 per cent and remove about 16,500 new homes over five years — something that could be easily offset with just a portion of the recovered revenue.
“Negative gearing and capital gains tax reform could in fact be a pro-supply policy heading into the next term of parliament,” Coates says.
“It’s hard to see how else you could do it,” Garvin says.”
Jane’s is very reputable. The Russians probably did ask for access, and the Indonesians said no. It’s that simple. Indonesia has long standing relationships with Russia, particularly with respect to military equipment and it appears this has strengthened under the current government to include some joint exercises.
frednk @ #41 Wednesday, April 16th, 2025 – 8:48 am
Who fed the story to Janes?
”
Socratessays:
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 7:07 am
Dr Doolittle (from last night)
“ Are you noticing US policy re Ukraine? Serhii Plokhy would be appalled.
See Guardian Europe live blog for comments by Witkoff about scope for a deal, largely satisfying Putin’s real war aims, once he realised the obvious point that Ukraine could not be subjugated by Russia using force.
Very unlikely any NATO peacekeepers.”
—————————————————
Yes I have been watching it. Sadly I have found it too depressing to discuss ever since Trump’s “ambush” press conference with Zelensky in the White House a month ago. Under Trump Ukraine has few prospects of anything better than survival with its current land area held.
You are correct to point out that the bad policy to Ukraine started with Biden and Johnson back in 2022. Why some still believe in trusting Australia’s security to AUKUS, the product of the thinking of the same two individuals, combined with the self-deluded Morrison, I find incomprehensible.
I could go through all the engineering details to explain why AUKUS will never happen as promised, yet Albo and Marles keep repeating the same lies Morrison used to justify it. Now with Trump in charge, it only looks like a worse idea than it was to start with.
PS It would be great if Mark Carney can talk some sense into Albo after the Canadian election.
”
+1.
US success in last 80 years was based on implementing and following
1. Rule of law at home and convince other western allies to do so
2. Rules based world order
3. Free trade amongst Western allies.
4. Installing Soviet union/ Russia as the real enemy
Trump has trashed all the above. I can understand first 3 because he a mafioso at heart and wants/wanted Tarrifs.
What surprised me and the Western countries/democracies most is saying that Russia is not the enemy (infact a friend) and western allies are not friends.
H treated US western allies like trash in open.
That is the AUKUS agreement is dead as door knob and the money Albanese government is giving in the name of AUKUS is protection money in another name.
Lots of young have had to flee to rural areas to survive due to federal Labor governments ongoing housing,rental and homelessness failures caused by its deceitful big Australia bring em all in to boost economic growth policy.
Young tend to drift to labor.
Labor behind Greens in Muslim party prefs all that selling out of Israel did not get you far labor.
Cat
I wouldn’t discount the possibility it was bullshit that came out of a head office campaign meeting.