More evidence of a tide to Labor from Nine Newspapers’ Resolve Strategic poll, which has been (at least since the end of 2023) one of the strongest series for the Coalition, but now credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, compared with 50-50 in the post-budget poll and 55-45 to the Coalition with a distinctly poor result for Labor in the mid-February poll. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 31% (amounting to a six-point increase from the mid-February poll), while the Coalition is down three to 34% (five since mid-February), the Greens are steady on 13%, and One Nation are down one to 8%. Independents are up three to 12% — presumably this is based on a generic question that will be superseded in coming Resolve Strategic polls tailored to the candidates running in the respondent’s electorate, causing this number to fall.
Anthony Albanese is now in net positive territory on his personal ratings, his combined good and very good result up six to 45% (an 11-point improvement since mid-February), while poor plus very poor is down six to 43% (a 13-point improvement). Peter Dutton is down three to 34% and up six to 53% (an 13-point deterioration since mid-February on both counts). Anthony Albanese now leads 46-30 on preferred prime minister, out from 42-33 last time. The poll also finds 33% saying their view of Donald Trump has made them less likely to vote Coalition, compared with 14% for more likely, with respective numbers of 21% and 22% for Labor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1642.
There is also the regular weekly Roy Morgan poll, which has Labor leading 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 53.5-46.5, which reflects improvement for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences rather than primary votes: Labor is down half to 32%, the Coalition is up half to 33.5%, the Greens are up one to 14.5% and One Nation is steady at 6%. The two-party measure based on previous election preference flows also has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, which is unchanged on last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1708.
Resolve Strategic’s breakdowns show this poll to be distinctive for a strong result for Labor among men, at 34% on the primary vote compared with 29% among women. Breakdowns for the three largest states show Labor up five in Queensland and the Coalition down six in New South Wales, without correspondingly large movement for the other major party. All of which has now been incorporated in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, giving Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings a substantial lift without adding anything noticeable to voting intention, on which Labor’s two-party vote shot up 0.7% with the addition of last night’s Newspoll. Essential Research, which a been a little stickier than other pollsters over the last month or so, should be along overnight.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has broken out of its stasis, with Labor now holding a lead of 50% (up two) to 45% (down two) on the 2PP+ measure, which leaves room for a 5% undecided component. On the primary vote, which also includes a 5% undecided component, Labor is up one to 31%, the Coalition is down two to 32%, and the Greens are up a point to 13%. The pollster has followed its own course with Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, which surged in January and have been fairly stable since: the latest result has him steady on 44% approval and up one on disapproval to 47%. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 39% and up one on disapproval to 48%. The pollster doesn’t track preferred prime minister, but this result includes head-to-head questions on handling key issues, which find Albanese leading Dutton 34% to 28% on his presumed weak point of addressing the cost of living, and 30% to 20% on Dutton’s presumed strength of keeping Australians safe. Both leaders were favoured by 29% for responding to the Trump administration’s tariffs.
The foregoing is based on a report in The Guardian — a full report will be along later today. The poll had a sample of 2142 and was likely conducted Wednesday to Monday.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. The Coalition continues to do better than Labor on firmness of voting intention. The voting intention numbers have increased Labor’s two-party lead on BludgerTrack from 51.6-48.4 to 51.9-48.1, and it now shows swings (however slight) to Labor in four of the five states being tracked, with the inevitable exception of Victoria.
Albo performance in WA:
Satisfied 43% (5 higher than the national result)
Dissatisfied 53% (3 lower)
Uncommitted 4%
Dutton performance in WA:
Satisfied 39% (1 lower)
Dissatisfied 53% (2 higher)
Uncommitted 8%
(source: the quarterly Newspoll aggregate) Important to note the low sample size and its age.
dr doolittle. apologies. it read to me as h of r
Bird of Paradox at 10 pm
Canning more likely as a Labor gain than Moore, but Sturt more likely still.
Player One says:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 9:33 pm
Christ on a crutch, this place has degenerated today
How many weeks left in this ridiculous election campaign?
I agree the campaign is not going well for the Liberals.
bug1 at 9.28 pm
Yes Dyson will obviously have an open ticket since he will get to 2CP status so preferences of his voters irrelevant.
Moore is complicated now with the disendorsed Lib Ian Goodenough recontesting as an Independent. I don’t think he’s much chance of winning but could get Labor over the line if it’s tight, Canning is also at risk at a 56-44 result but I suspect much of the swing will be contained in inner suburban seats Labor already holds.
Yeah doctor Doolittle it seems to me that it’s going to be more labour Victory than liberal honestly I don’t even think that debates are going to do s*** unless someone screws up spectacularly and even the housing policies ongoing to do s*** the problem is how do you gain popularity back when you known to flip flop constantly like especially when that resolve polls showing 68% of Australians do not like Trump that’s the total you not to act like him and not to do any of his policies
The Newspoll quarterlys are obviously somewhat out of date but I would expect relationships between state and national swings to hold up reasonably well. Bludgertrack has the Labor swing around 2.5% worse than the national average in Victoria and in the order of 0.5-1% better than the national average in the other four states covered, and I’d expect those differences to stay fairly stable as the national average changes.
Leftie brawler had to use a less than ideal public toilet in the sanctuary point surrounds while out in the field yesterday .
I was at once both shocked and ensconced into a feeling of nostalgia to see the old public toilet telegraph system still going as strong as ever and in full swing. Brings a tear to the eye to thin of Lars and Alan Jones cottaging them circa 1979
Western Australia has got to be one of the most politically bizarre places in the Western World.
By rights it should be the Alberta of Australia. Indeed in the 2014 rerun Senate election it returned five right and one left members (if you count Joe Bullock as right – who was nominally Labor at the time but was as conservative as most Liberal MPs). By 2022, the numbers had shifted completely. OK, there was the McGowan COVID election but the pandemic is long over and in the state election last month the Coalition got a very poor return in terms of seats and still lost South Perth and Scarborough (which demographically should never be held by Labor!).
It’s also the home of the great Gina Rinehart (one of the first things that Dutton should do when he is sworn in as PM is to give her a damehood – in light of the myriad things she has done to benefit Australia). Yet it is now looking at being more anti-conservative than Australia’s erstwhile Massachussetts – Victoria! I don’t understand.
FUBAR has gone AWOL as well. Didn’t he make a bet with someone on the Liberals regaining Curtin? Doubt he’s so confident now.
Reference for Dyson on preferences;
“I just encourage you to Vote 1 Alex Dyson Independent, then fill the rest of the boxes in whatever order you like”
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DIdbQ_LBfvU/
Bushfire Bill at 7.57 pm
Obviously Putin started his nasty war.
He expected it would be won in 2 weeks.
Putin’s crimes and military failures do not absolve other actors from being questioned about their strategy.
It is well known that the war could have ended in April 2022, when Putin would have been seen as the loser.
Zelenskyy and his party officials had a provisional agreement with Putin’s operatives, exchanging neutrality for a Russian withdrawal to the areas it occupied on 23 Feb 2022.
The US and UK blocked that deal, with B Johnson promising Zelenskyy they would help him “win by Christmas”.
Over two years later Biden was replaced by Trump, reversing Putin’s own goal in not invading before Trump lost, i.e. in late 2019.
It is not only Trump who has helped Putin prolong his war and gain much more territory than he would have accepted under the April 2022 deal.
Putin benefited from the lack of any coherent Biden strategy about how Ukraine could defeat Russia to a greater extent than it had in April 2022.
ScromoII, Labor is basically a liberal party these days they are no longer scary reds under the beds. The Liberals look increasingly like illiberals.
mj at 10.32 pm
No, Fubar never got a taker. I said that as a matter of honour he should donate $100 to W. Bowe Esq. in the event that his Lib optimism falters.
The Lib candidate for Curtin was given free kicks on ABC news breakfast (live from Cottesloe) this morning. He can’t kick like Dutton.
Comparing Australian states to Canadian provinces is an interesting idea for a thought exercise (and a lot less cliche than always comparing them to US states)
Of course, the comparisons can’t be perfect mainly because the two countries have much different climates and also the Canadian population lives mostly at the south near the US border, whereas Australia’s lives mostly near the coast.
BT at 10.28 pm
Yes, broadly but with some variation.
Biggest recovery (BT) since budget, i.e. in past 3 weeks, for Labor is in Victoria (up 1.8%) then NSW (1.4%).
Labor couldn’t have ordered a better variation. Looking very much like 1998.
WA does have a lot of mining wealth but the majority of the population do not directly benefit as they are not employed in it or are Gina Rinehart and co. WA Labor don’t threaten mining interests but do throw a few more bones to the people than the alternative.
MJ: that was Asha who took up FUBAR’s bet – he hasn’t been around for a while, either.
Catprog: I realise it’s more complicated than 2pp vote in the senate, but a similar vote to 2022 should produce similar results (ie: a third Labor seat), and that’s looking like happening. A lot of the One Nation increase is gonna be from less RWNJ parties running this time (or from the Libs) – if they get to 8-9% on their own instead of UAP / WAP / antivax / whoever prefs, it doesn’t actually change much when you get to that last three.
(Now Labor just have to hope their #3 isn’t another Fatima Payman.)
Ok, after Scromo’s paean to making Gina a Dame I’m fully on board the Scromo satire train, this shit is gold. Brought tears to the eyes that one.
”
Dr Doolittlesays:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 8:57 pm
Puff, The Magic Dragon at 7.57 pm
You have discovered the main reason why Michael Kirby is a committed monarchist.
Not because of the media circus that is called The Royal Family, but because a US-style elected Head of State would be a puerile celebrity.
He describes his position as a sort of anarchist adherence to the monarchy, as a system that is better only than the most likely republican alternative.
”
I am in Michael Kirby camp.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/04/how-to-make-best-use-of-your-2025.html
How To Make Best Use Of Your 2025 Senate Vote
@Hard Being Green:
“It was pretty a uncontroversial comment from Max on RN Breakfast this morning imo
Both major parties are saying they want house prices to keep increasing despite us being in a housing crisis. You can’t fix the problem as quickly if it’s getting worse”
It would fix the problem by creating new problems in much the same way as you could solve a high debt through high inflation but that inflation would then create new problems.
66% of Australian households own their home. This should immediately clue you in on why there’s a problem. In a democracy you can’t piss off the 66% to help the 33%. You can try but then you lose the election and whatever you did is undone and then some. See also carbon pricing.
And it’s even worse than that, because about 35% of Australian households (just over half the homeowners) have a mortgage, which means house prices dropping risks putting them underwater with their mortgage and all that jazz, so they’re particularly sensitive to it. The suggestion of house prices dropping is like the effect of an interest rate rise or interest rate cut on steroids.
And it’s even worse than THAT because if house prices drop, people largely will not sell their houses into the dip unless they have to, which is terrible for social mobility – being able to move for jobs, family, etc. And also holding back from selling like that would help prices to rise again anyway.
Hence – we need to solve the housing problem without “let’s crash the housing market and the paper wealth of 66% of Australian households” being within a bull’s roar of the actual solution.
TV on in the background tonight and there was a new (to me) Liberal ad on high repitition. It showed two young blokes talking in a pub. Purely negative about Labor in office and cost of living. No mention of Dutton or LNP policies at all.
Looks like they are giving up on ideas and reverting to type (negative attack) to save the furniture.
@Rossmcgsays: Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 9:38 pm
Facebook tells me the liberals wheeled out John Howard for an evening function in Tangney.
If my neighbourhood is any guide there’s an awful lot of voters in this division who weren’t even in Australia when he was punted as prime minister.
Which means they might not know what he thought of Asian immigration.
Hopefully some of them have found out.
~~~
There’s also the case where these immigrants do know about Howard’s stance on immigration and just don’t care, or in my experiences, support it.
Immigrants pulling up the ladder isn’t a particularly new thing. Not to mention that a lot of Asians are culturally conservative too. As an example, look at Sam Lim (and from experience a lot of Chinese-Australian) reacted to the Tamil refugee protests outside his office last year. It wasn’t great. (but part of his response does sound like what an Asian Dad would say from experience)
Not praising Howard Ong though, and the Liberals certainly would’ve had more contempt for these protestors. Also from what Sam Lim’s done and from experiences to speaking with the guy, he’s a genuine, down to earth guy who wants to help his community. He just really slipped in his response.
Socrates @ #1024 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 11:01 pm
Today, there was a flyer in my letterbox that was basically targeting Albanese and my Labor MP with cost of living stuff, “wasted money on the Voice referendum” etc.
What was curious was, like the ads you mentioned, it didn’t mention Dutton, the Liberal Party or their local candidate once. I had to scan the authorisation fine print at the bottom to figure out whose advertisement it was. Seems like they’re hoping the whole “Oppositions don’t win elections; governments lose them” maxim will get them over the line.
@rossmcg what’s your sense of Tangney?
Sam seems to have fairly good name recognition.
The number of the bloody sheep signs around the electorate is irritating.
Socrates at 11.31 pm
I have not seen a Lib ad, but obviously they will focus on the blokes rather than the sheilas, as Chris Schacht, ALP Right senator 35 years ago used to say. Clearly Libs have done little or nothing to appeal to younger women. That was obvious on Q&A. Even Roshena Campbell could not impress young women over housing.
Bill Hayden once (late 1984) said that policies can’t be sold like detergent.
Are you noticing US policy re Ukraine? Serhii Plokhy would be appalled.
See Guardian Europe live blog for comments by Witkoff about scope for a deal, largely satisfying Putin’s real war aims, once he realised the obvious point that Ukraine could not be subjugated by Russia using force.
Very unlikely any NATO peacekeepers.
*Dedicated to all Connoisseurs of Puns !*
How does an attorney sleep ?
First he lies on one side, then he lies on the other side.
I have a few jokes about unemployed people, but none of them work.
How do you make
holy water ?
You take some water and boil the hell out of it.
Will glass coffins
be a success ?
Remains to be seen!
Two windmills are
standing in a wind farm.
One asks,
“What is your favorite kind of music?”
The other says,
“I am a big metal fan!”
Heard about the new restaurant called Karma?
There is no menu, you get what you deserve!
I went to buy some
camouflage trousers
yesterday, but couldn’t find any.
What do you call a bee that can’t quite make up its mind ?
A maybe
I tried to sue the airline for losing my luggage.
I lost my case.
If and when everything is coming your way,
you are in the wrong lane.
She had a photographic
memory, but never
developed it.
Is it ignorance or apathy that is destroying the world today?
I don’t know and
don’t really care!
I wasn’t originally going to get a brain transplant, but then i changed my mind.
Which country’s capital has the fastest-growing
population?
Ireland of course.
it’s *Dublin* everyday.
My ex-wife still misses me,
but her aim is starting to improve.
The guy who invented the door knocker got a *No-bell* prize.
I saw an advertisement for burial plots, and I thought :
“That’s the last thing I need!”
Need an ark ?
I Noah guy.
I used to be indecisive;
Now I am not so sure.
Sleeping comes so
naturally to me that
I can do it with my eyes closed.
What did the grape say when it got stepped on?
Nothing. But, it let out a little w(h)ine.
What do you call a very articulate dinosaur with a good vocabulary?
A Thesaurus!
Papua New Guinea foreign minister Justin Tkatchenko has admitted he wants to see Labor relected. He said Australia’s relationship with Papua New Guinea has never been stronger. I’m sure that is true, but I’m also sure he’s aware how reckless Peter Dutton is- and doesn’t want to deal with another Trump in the pacific.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-15/png-foreign-minister-weighs-in-on-australian-election/105179970
Now this is just depressing
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/apr/16/south-australia-historic-dry-weather-parched-waterways-dead-fish-and-trees-ready-to-give-up
Certainly the adjacent area in South-West Victoria has been equally extraordinarily dry over the last year.
Ven 11.58pm
I enjoyed the puns, especially:
Will glass coffins
be a success ?
Remains to be seen!
🙂
Regarding WA political leanings.
It is often forgotten when people think about WA’s politiccal leanings that for the longest time WA had severe malaportionment, with country voters (and thus generally conservative leaning voters) having more power in determining results (roughly 2 to 1 voting strength for the lower house prior to one vote one value for that chamber in 2008).
Also oft forgotten is WA SEEMS conservative simply because it is rather protective of mining royalties (a good number of fools think if we tax the miners fairly they will stop mining) and due to its shameful feet dragging on Indigenous rights, in most other areas WA has been rather progressive, see the election of some of the first alternative left-wing federal parliamentarians in the forerunner to the WA greens in the anti nuclear parties Jo Valentine in 1984, who went on to become the first ‘Greens’ senator elected in 1990 (as at that time the Greens (WA) was still separate from the wider party/movement technically not the first Greens senator) or the early attempts at green alternative fuel public transport (hydrogen buses back in the early 2000s) and a general dislike of nosing in others business (WA was originally one of the most progressive regarding abortion with it being accessible from 1998 onwards, under a lib government of all things) and also had the first woman become premier with Carmen Lawrence in 1990.
This is all a very long-winded (my apologies as I am rather tired so rambling happens) way of saying that WA is a prime example of being generally socially progressive and economically also, however having certain areas that are political minefields for the left (mining, immigration, and tax more generally) as we have the propensity for people to view the gov with suspicion due to it being seen as an EAST COAST based gov trying to tax us, which allows the Libs etc to run scare campaigns around them robbing WA playing into our parochial nature.
ArchaeWA
Thanks for that good summary.
Looking forward to late night (“over east”!) good news on 3rd May!
“Vensays:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 11:58 pm
*Dedicated to all Connoisseurs of Puns !*”
* I’m reading a book about antigravity. It’s so good, I can’t put it down!
* A Buddhist monk went into a burger shop & said, “Make me one with everything!”
New thread.
Arky @ #1024 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 11:22 pm
This^
To which I can only add, prices will always go up, it’s by how much you need to be concerned about. Wages and salaries generally go up too. Wage increases are the mitigating factor to price rises. It’s what Labor is concerned with and what The Greens want you to forget about with their one-sided take on economic matters.
True Believer @ 6.54pm
As a fellow true believer I agree with your proposition that we never see another CLP Government in our lifetimes.
Hopefully, at 69 years of age, I continue to live for a long, long time!
Rossmcgsays:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 9:08 pm
Has Bill Posters been prosecuted yet?
============================================
I believe he was framed.
The most surprising thing in the last few years has been WA’s flip from conservative stronghold to possibly the strongest ALP vote in the country.
I know a lot of it has to do with McGowan’s unprecedented popularity still flowing through – and getting a lot of previously staunch Liberal voters to do the unthinkable and vote ALP for the first time ever. Once done, it’s easier to do again (and to then look around for alternatives like Kate Chaney). And of course, the Liberals turning into Mini-MAGA hasn’t helped their cause now we’ve got visible results of Maxi-MAGA going on in America.
I will be intrigued to see if the ALP vote in WA holds up – the Bludgertrack there is showing a swing *to* the ALP in WA from 2022, which would be quite unexpected to me, and suggestive that the ALP could hold all seats and even possibly win Moore this time around (or it could go Indy – it’s probably the seat with the most permutations this time around – except I’ll say now not-anywhere-near-Goodenough won’t win it back).