More evidence of a tide to Labor from Nine Newspapers’ Resolve Strategic poll, which has been (at least since the end of 2023) one of the strongest series for the Coalition, but now credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, compared with 50-50 in the post-budget poll and 55-45 to the Coalition with a distinctly poor result for Labor in the mid-February poll. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 31% (amounting to a six-point increase from the mid-February poll), while the Coalition is down three to 34% (five since mid-February), the Greens are steady on 13%, and One Nation are down one to 8%. Independents are up three to 12% — presumably this is based on a generic question that will be superseded in coming Resolve Strategic polls tailored to the candidates running in the respondent’s electorate, causing this number to fall.
Anthony Albanese is now in net positive territory on his personal ratings, his combined good and very good result up six to 45% (an 11-point improvement since mid-February), while poor plus very poor is down six to 43% (a 13-point improvement). Peter Dutton is down three to 34% and up six to 53% (an 13-point deterioration since mid-February on both counts). Anthony Albanese now leads 46-30 on preferred prime minister, out from 42-33 last time. The poll also finds 33% saying their view of Donald Trump has made them less likely to vote Coalition, compared with 14% for more likely, with respective numbers of 21% and 22% for Labor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1642.
There is also the regular weekly Roy Morgan poll, which has Labor leading 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 53.5-46.5, which reflects improvement for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences rather than primary votes: Labor is down half to 32%, the Coalition is up half to 33.5%, the Greens are up one to 14.5% and One Nation is steady at 6%. The two-party measure based on previous election preference flows also has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, which is unchanged on last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1708.
Resolve Strategic’s breakdowns show this poll to be distinctive for a strong result for Labor among men, at 34% on the primary vote compared with 29% among women. Breakdowns for the three largest states show Labor up five in Queensland and the Coalition down six in New South Wales, without correspondingly large movement for the other major party. All of which has now been incorporated in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, giving Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings a substantial lift without adding anything noticeable to voting intention, on which Labor’s two-party vote shot up 0.7% with the addition of last night’s Newspoll. Essential Research, which a been a little stickier than other pollsters over the last month or so, should be along overnight.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has broken out of its stasis, with Labor now holding a lead of 50% (up two) to 45% (down two) on the 2PP+ measure, which leaves room for a 5% undecided component. On the primary vote, which also includes a 5% undecided component, Labor is up one to 31%, the Coalition is down two to 32%, and the Greens are up a point to 13%. The pollster has followed its own course with Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, which surged in January and have been fairly stable since: the latest result has him steady on 44% approval and up one on disapproval to 47%. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 39% and up one on disapproval to 48%. The pollster doesn’t track preferred prime minister, but this result includes head-to-head questions on handling key issues, which find Albanese leading Dutton 34% to 28% on his presumed weak point of addressing the cost of living, and 30% to 20% on Dutton’s presumed strength of keeping Australians safe. Both leaders were favoured by 29% for responding to the Trump administration’s tariffs.
The foregoing is based on a report in The Guardian — a full report will be along later today. The poll had a sample of 2142 and was likely conducted Wednesday to Monday.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. The Coalition continues to do better than Labor on firmness of voting intention. The voting intention numbers have increased Labor’s two-party lead on BludgerTrack from 51.6-48.4 to 51.9-48.1, and it now shows swings (however slight) to Labor in four of the five states being tracked, with the inevitable exception of Victoria.
Fair point leftie.
It was pretty a uncontroversial comment from Max on RN Breakfast this morning imo
Both major parties are saying they want house prices to keep increasing despite us being in a housing crisis. You can’t fix the problem as quickly if it’s getting worse
A good interview overall, messaging is much tighter this time around. Stop Dutton, support Labor’s housing policies but push for better and rent caps rather than freezes, as far as I can tell
#25in25
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/greens-housing-policy/105177158
So how do you think this campaign’s gonna end honestly at the beginning of the year by was no major party was going to be happy now it seems be one party’s going to be happy also the other problem is you have Peter unpopularity the more he appears the more people look at him go oh you’re not I don’t think he’s campaign launch is going to do anything I mean think about it yesterday was people going away you could easily give your son alone or give him a house in today it’s the Russians are in Indonesia which turned out not to be true so him campaigning on policy he kind of sit the bed honestly I’m thinking even if Trump didn’t win the coalition was going to lose because Peter’s just that much of an idiot oh you have to do was have a bunch of policies the moderates like an Australia and he could have been leading hell it should be 54 to 46 for the liberals not the other way around this is just a bad campaign and I don’t think this next debate is going to do anything to even the Sky News debate Anthony won that
TPOF at 9.06 pm
“Kerr aside”. There you have the failure of the Republican movement in Australia since Whitlam declared, in The Truth of the Matter in 1977, that the “reserve powers” needed to be codified and circumscribed.
Wat Tyler @ #940 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 9:18 pm
Why do you believe that the SA electorate is so predisposed to electing 3 Conservative/Ultra Conservative Senators? I thought SA was a more Progressive-leaning state?
Dr Doolittlesays:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 9:08 pm
Windhover at 8.27 pm
Labor is heading for a stronger TPP vote in Reps than 2022.
Key test is SA. Can Labor win the 6th seat, which they lost to Libs in 2022.
————-
not sure what result you’re looking at but Labor already has won 6 seats in 2022: Adelaide Boothby, Hindmarsh, spence, kingston, makin. independent won Mayo and libs got 3 : sturt barker grey. ALP are a chance of picking up sturt this election
Tricot @ #941 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 9:19 pm
Free Bill Posters!!
C@tmomma @ #954 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 8:57 pm
I base it on literally every Senate election before.
Edit: And the One Nation part has to do with the fact the party has been growing in support here. Albeit a small single-digit minority but there’s a possibility that combined RW dissatisfaction with the Liberals and outer suburban low engagement/low information voter dissatisfaction with Labor that it could put them in a position to stick around after exclusions in the Senate count and put them in a threat to win 6th place (even if failing to get a quota in its own right but, instead, being the last candidate standing after exclusions.)
Can I suggest the “where’s Lars” saga is saved up for the Easter break. I suspect WB will abandon his daily updates at least on public holidays and there won’t be much polling or serious campaigning.
So having a good diversion might be appreciated. There might even be some form of resurrection.
C@tmomma, no haven’t seen preferences, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he has open ticket, as kirsdarke says.
Seems like he has a good professional team around him, no ties to upper house, expected to come second on primary, and the only serious challenger, and it’s been biggest campaign here for a long time so people know what’s going on.
He was painted early on by Tehan as a closet Green and Labor friendly, so it would be bad optics, and no benefit from preferencing the left.
I hope alp voters in Wannon [what’s left of them] will think about voting strategically for Alex Dyson.
Quentin Rountree,
I think we’re going to get a pretty good idea of how Dutton is travelling in the debate tomorrow night. He’ll either be composed and confident, or shaky and flub it.
He likes to think of himself as a counterpuncher, so I think he’ll come out swinging despite the setbacks he’s experienced so far.
The way the Dutton campaign is going he’s in serious danger of losing his seat. I don’t think he has it in him to turn this around. The man looks and acts like he is cold, corrupt and ruthless and he seems quite stupid to top it all off. I don’t see how he leads the LNP anywhere but backwards at the election. Labor may be uninspiring to many but at least they can run a professional campaign and a stable, vanilla govt that doesn’t go out of its way to piss people off for no real benefit.
No doubt Dyson will hoover up the preferences in Wannon.
Thanks, bug!. And good luck to Alex. 🙂
Lars is probably fretting over the end of nadia88.
She got entangled with “bluey the octopus “, and something about dumping “bluey” into L.B.G.
Both those posters deathrided the ALP and GREEN primary vote last year. Nadia attacked the Greens over Adam’s HECS policy, which was a surprise. Her comment at the time – “Bandt blew it”.
Lars dresses himself up as a Teal, but secretly is a Lib.
Anyway, two interesting posters, both MIA.
Nath it’s all in good fun. Our problem is we are too similar – both at times moronic sensationalist hyperbolic types pushing the upper limits of man with the big stick’s tolerances.
Now obviously you trail me quite significantly when it comes to compelling, thought provoking and hard hitting political commentary but Nath you are the closest to me at PBer in terms of sheer naughtiness and lunacy.
Christ on a crutch, this place has degenerated today 🙁
How many weeks left in this ridiculous election campaign?
C@t at 9:21pm
Hopefully it won’t be like that. From what I gather, Wannon is a stubborn nut to crack, always has been. The last time Labor won it was in 1954, and that was by only 17 votes. Since then, the Coalition has easily got 50%+ of the Primary vote most of the time.
It’s become a marginal seat for the first time since then, and it might very well go the way of Indi at the other side of the state, where some portion of the electorate who have been voting Liberal for 70 years might get sick of being represented by people like Dan Tehan or Sophie Mirabella might actually be delighted to get an ‘out’ in being able to vote them out without being a black sheep Labor traitor to their families.
Facebook tells me the liberals wheeled out John Howard for an evening function in Tangney.
If my neighbourhood is any guide there’s an awful lot of voters in this division who weren’t even in Australia when he was punted as prime minister.
Which means they might not know what he thought of Asian immigration.
Hopefully some of them have found out.
Cheers Leftie. I’m gonna miss you when you get the chop.
Hard Being Green,
Thanks for the link: https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/greens-housing-policy/105177158
Yep, nothing controversial in what he said. Clear communication with no waffling. Authentic.
To get 4 Senate seats in a state for either the left or right side requires either a 2PP result for the state in the 57-43 range (as in Queensland in 2019) or preferences doing oddball things (perhaps a bit less likely now we don’t have Group Ticket Votes so you don’t have scenarios like Labor preferences flowing to Family First).
Kage:
Found the link. Wow what a moron.
So annoyed PHON is running in Sydney and I don’t get the chance to put the Greens last.
Dan Tehan comes across as a fairly decent guy for a Liberal, however the leader of the party can’t be helping his situation in Wannon .
Just think player one, if you didn’t dedicate 99% of your time at PB to trying to destroy the Labor brand perhaps we’d invite you to participate in the off script comic relief
Oh is nadia missing too?
How illuminating. The two commenters most in the tank for bringing dire polling news of Labor’s demise aren’t around now that the polls seem to be showing something else.
Of course I’m sure it’s all just coincidental.
Catmama I think the problem is the more Peter talks the more people catch on his b******* like he’s personal ratings is going down the toilet like that’s why people like oh wait a week so we could see the impact of the campaign launch but here’s the problem yesterday we were talking about Peter and his son today it’s him in Russia also the problem with debates Anthony has to do is still what he did in the sky debate like honestly I don’t think it’s like the Canadians conservatives it’s like they fought the hat in the bag when Trump won realise didn’t realize Trump was insane and now they have a fight on their hands which will probably end up in a liberal Victory
Nath maybe you will before me. I’ve increased my ratio significantly of witty, original political commentary and insight in this 2.o LB. Also been generously dropping sensitive data for the benefit of the masses which has all been proved accurate.
LB 2.0 is man with big stick approved.
Confessions yeah it’s weird n88 left just like that honestly honestly I think she got two cocky and started making predictions now she wasn’t stupid she said she didn’t think both both major parties weren’t going to like election night but it seems now it’s more likely ladies gonna like election night
BT @ #972 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 9:10 pm
Either that or an independent with a considerable base of support who might act as a disruptor. But yes, that’s pretty much the logic I am basing my caution on. The only reason I leave the door slightly open (and very non-confidently) to a 3 ALP + 1 Green result is the fact I have no idea what’s going on here and the state Labor Government polling close to 60-40 (yes, I know that state popularity doesn’t necessarily translate to votes and vice versa.)
Paddy O, at 5:08 pm
Nice post! Drop in more often!
Sounds good leftie but I’m determined to outlast you this time and I’m on my best behaviour!
For all the senate talk here is the final votes from Antony Green’s blog from 2022
VIC (for the final seat)
BABET, Ralph (UAP) 349,809
NUNN, Casey (ALP) 300,798
MIRABELLA, Greg (LIB) 275,509
455,528 UAP vs 374,234 LAB after LIB exclusion.
QLD( for the final 2)
HANSON, Pauline (ONP) 428,718
CHISHOLM, Anthony (ALP) 419,483
STOKER, Amanda (LNP) 309,864
WA( for the final spot)
PAYMAN, Fatima (ALP) 155,170
FILING, Paul (ONP) 133,111
SMALL, Ben (LIB) 99,327
185,992 ALP vs 162,502 ONP after LIB exclusion.
SA( for the final spot)
LIDDLE, Kerrynne (LIB) 107,705
GAME, Jennifer (ONP) 97,755
GILL, Trimann (ALP) 89,740
140,008 LIB vs 107,672 ONP after ALP exclusion.
NSW( for final spot) (using the prefence pdf)
LIB 510,086
ON 281,627
HMP 238,538
Final count 590,644 vs 475,964
Quentin Rountree and Barney at 9.27 pm
Barney the comment was about the national TPP not just about SA.
In 2022 Labor won Boothby for the first time but did poorly in the Senate.
Clearly Labor aim to win Sturt and the 6th Senate seat. Anything less would be a poor result for Labor in SA.
Excluding the preference bonus from Hanson to Libs, Dr Bonham now has the national TPP at 52.3%, only 0.4% lower than 2007.
Quentin that is where the polls are going, to an outcome close to 2007. Of course with a much lower primary vote, but probably higher than 2022.
The serious media (e.g. Speers and 7.30 and the less serious Swingers) are still fixated on Hung Parliament.
That scenario was always overstated, as Dr Bonham kept pointing out. Yet the media have it as their favourite. Few journalists it seems are agile.
The most likely result now, given how the campaign has gone and the very limited time left, is a Labor majority.
Victoria was always the problem state for Labor, but too many observers just transferred state to federal polls (even ignoring Werribee) and forgot why Dutton is unpopular in Victoria.
Catprog at 9.51 pm
Background re 2022 Senate vote in SA is that Labor lost a lot of votes relative to their upper houses state vote in March, many more than the final gap from Lib to Lab when latter excluded.
Albo performance in Victoria:
Approve 36% (2 lower than the nation-wide result)
Disapprove 59% (3 higher)
Uncommitted 5%
Dutton performance in Victoria:
Approve 39% (1 higher)
Disapprove 53% (2 lower)
Uncommitted 8%
(source: the quarterly Newspoll aggregate)
I don’t think Nadia was ever calling for Labor’s demise but was just analysing poll data in real-time and what that might mean. Clearly Labor are assurgent now but I don’t think it’s got much to do with their own campaign it’s more by default as a result of an amateurish LNP campaign with the added instability around President Stable Genius.
Hung parliament is the journalists wetdream. So much drama, so many clicks.
WA is a decent chance of going 3 ALP / 2 Lib / 1 Grn. That happened in 2022 with a 55% 2pp for Labor, and Bludgertrack reckons that’s holding steady.
Actually scratch that – I just had a look and it’s gone UP. Labor sitting on 56.4%, which would make a third senator pretty much a sure thing, and also give them Moore and Canning. If they get Sturt as well, the Libs would be completely shut out of two of the five major cities.
Confessions at 9.40 pm and earlier
Your preferences do not matter a jot in Sydney if you vote 1 Labor. They would matter only in McNamara or Brisbane or other seats like that.
As Ruby Hunter once told her great husband Archie Roach, “it’s not all about you”.
Pegasussays:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 7:00 pm
Major/minor By Richard Denniss:
But don’t hold your breath waiting for a debate between our major political parties on the costs to Australians of being one of the lowest taxed countries in the world.
_______________________
Thr Australia Institute are liars
Australia has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world. Australia has one of the most aggressively progressive income tax regimes in the world.
The ONLY significant difference is that Australia does not have “social insurance taxes” because instead we have a compulsory superannuation – a 12% of income forced reallocation (which i support and should be higher).
https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/global/oecd-tax-revenue-by-country-2024/
“pithicussays:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 9:30 pm
I hope alp voters in Wannon [what’s left of them] will think about voting strategically for Alex Dyson.”
ALP voters in Wannon are already voting for Dyson. Labor had 6,000 more senate PVs in Wannon so AT LEAST that many are giving their primary to Dyson. It will probably increase as tactical awareness increases. This is an artificial fall in Labor’s PV
Bird of paradox @10:00 pm
2PP is not the number you need for the 3rd Labor Senate Seat.
It is One nation vs Labor.
If people have turned from Labor > Liberal to ONP > Labor > Liberal it could be One nation that gets the seat while the 2PP vote for Labor has gone up.
185,992 ALP vs 162,502 ONP was the final count last time.
Pegasus @ #939 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 9:20 pm
So original, and cutting, like a sausage. Vego of course.
I see there is a Rossco posting now. I have been rossco for years, just lurk mostly nowadays.
While I am here, the old saying Govts don’t win elections, Oppositions lose them. Dutton is doing his best to confirm that
Another thing going against Dutton is that no former Defence minister has ever made it to PM. Kim Beasley came closest.
Bird of paradox says:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 10:00 pm
WA is a decent chance of going 3 ALP / 2 Lib / 1 Grn. That happened in 2022 with a 55% 2pp for Labor, and Bludgertrack reckons that’s holding steady.
Actually scratch that – I just had a look and it’s gone UP. Labor sitting on 56.4%, which would make a third senator pretty much a sure thing, and also give them Moore and Canning. If they get Sturt as well, the Libs would be completely shut out of two of the five major cities.
———
Do you think people in WA are especially anti-Dutton? It’s looking like that to me and not just a state govt halo effect.
Arrange at 9.58 pm and subgeometer at 9.59 pm
Newspoll quarterly results are stale, like the first half in a close match when one side fumbles big in last qtr.
Yes, the journos have mistaken their desires for reality; they’re still stale.
The interesting story is that a lot of disappointed Labor members (even former ministers) would, like nath, prefer a Labor minority with some of the Teals there to keep them honest.
The Teals are likely to be available but unlikely to be needed, because the duo of Dutton and Trump have made Albo look like a leader for the times.
Kirsdarke @ #969 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 9:34 pm
It fascinates me that a JJJ announcer ended up running in Wannon of all places!
Rossco
Fraser was minister for defence