More evidence of a tide to Labor from Nine Newspapers’ Resolve Strategic poll, which has been (at least since the end of 2023) one of the strongest series for the Coalition, but now credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, compared with 50-50 in the post-budget poll and 55-45 to the Coalition with a distinctly poor result for Labor in the mid-February poll. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 31% (amounting to a six-point increase from the mid-February poll), while the Coalition is down three to 34% (five since mid-February), the Greens are steady on 13%, and One Nation are down one to 8%. Independents are up three to 12% — presumably this is based on a generic question that will be superseded in coming Resolve Strategic polls tailored to the candidates running in the respondent’s electorate, causing this number to fall.
Anthony Albanese is now in net positive territory on his personal ratings, his combined good and very good result up six to 45% (an 11-point improvement since mid-February), while poor plus very poor is down six to 43% (a 13-point improvement). Peter Dutton is down three to 34% and up six to 53% (an 13-point deterioration since mid-February on both counts). Anthony Albanese now leads 46-30 on preferred prime minister, out from 42-33 last time. The poll also finds 33% saying their view of Donald Trump has made them less likely to vote Coalition, compared with 14% for more likely, with respective numbers of 21% and 22% for Labor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1642.
There is also the regular weekly Roy Morgan poll, which has Labor leading 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 53.5-46.5, which reflects improvement for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences rather than primary votes: Labor is down half to 32%, the Coalition is up half to 33.5%, the Greens are up one to 14.5% and One Nation is steady at 6%. The two-party measure based on previous election preference flows also has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, which is unchanged on last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1708.
Resolve Strategic’s breakdowns show this poll to be distinctive for a strong result for Labor among men, at 34% on the primary vote compared with 29% among women. Breakdowns for the three largest states show Labor up five in Queensland and the Coalition down six in New South Wales, without correspondingly large movement for the other major party. All of which has now been incorporated in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, giving Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings a substantial lift without adding anything noticeable to voting intention, on which Labor’s two-party vote shot up 0.7% with the addition of last night’s Newspoll. Essential Research, which a been a little stickier than other pollsters over the last month or so, should be along overnight.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has broken out of its stasis, with Labor now holding a lead of 50% (up two) to 45% (down two) on the 2PP+ measure, which leaves room for a 5% undecided component. On the primary vote, which also includes a 5% undecided component, Labor is up one to 31%, the Coalition is down two to 32%, and the Greens are up a point to 13%. The pollster has followed its own course with Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, which surged in January and have been fairly stable since: the latest result has him steady on 44% approval and up one on disapproval to 47%. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 39% and up one on disapproval to 48%. The pollster doesn’t track preferred prime minister, but this result includes head-to-head questions on handling key issues, which find Albanese leading Dutton 34% to 28% on his presumed weak point of addressing the cost of living, and 30% to 20% on Dutton’s presumed strength of keeping Australians safe. Both leaders were favoured by 29% for responding to the Trump administration’s tariffs.
The foregoing is based on a report in The Guardian — a full report will be along later today. The poll had a sample of 2142 and was likely conducted Wednesday to Monday.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. The Coalition continues to do better than Labor on firmness of voting intention. The voting intention numbers have increased Labor’s two-party lead on BludgerTrack from 51.6-48.4 to 51.9-48.1, and it now shows swings (however slight) to Labor in four of the five states being tracked, with the inevitable exception of Victoria.
“I ended up having to fake my own death and eat ramen in a shipping container for six months to escape gambling debts”
haha too funny.
Jt1983 oh I know that but I don’t think the election is changing I think the results are Labor minority or majority
Confessions
Personally I’m contemplating which aged red to open on election night if Sturt falls.
I know hubris is dangerous but this is three good polls in a row for Labor. They can’t all be wrong by >MOE.
Assuming these polls reflect the real current state of the campaign I don’t see how Dutton can come back from here. Trumpism isn’t just a tactic for Dutton. It is his nature.
Confessionssays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:51 pm
It won’t happen, but just for a moment imagine Dutton loses Dickson.
Who is the putative alternative Liberal leader
—————-
Won’t happen but invite the teals and the rural independents to take them over.
Err in three hours six ladies including singer Katie Perry,Gayle king and bezos wife plastic fantastic are going up to space on the Amazon guys rocket blue origin.
News ltd now reporting the space capsule they are going up in 21 workers/experts working with the capsule said not to go on it.Blue origin says no concerns !
Potential snuff movie on YouTube live.
C@t at 6.19pm, on the previous thread.
Haven’t seen Lars here for about 2 weeks.
Nadia hasn’t been here for about 10 days after she was piled on over the ‘bluey bullshit’.
I’m sure they’ll be back before election day. I hope so.
On resolve, greens vote holding up in Qld and Vic.
I’m picking both macnamara and wills as greens pick ups.
‘Confessions says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:51 pm
It won’t happen, but just for a moment imagine Dutton loses Dickson.
Who is the putative alternative Liberal leader?’
===========================
If they choose Hastie they are essentially pressing the same Dutton.
If they had any sense they would choose a woman. So it will not be a woman.
Tehan? Patterson?
Socrates yeah when you’re seven plus in Queensland Anthony Albanese he’s probably happy honestly honestly I think that campaign launch and Pierces Trump loving and Peter son saini has trouble getting their house even though he could ask his dad for some money was probably gonna even screw them up more
on federal election night , the federal lib/nats remain in opposition
If Peter Dutton does lose his seat of Dickson , after the federal lib/nats concession speech to Labor/Anthony Albanese
Sussan Ley would be the acting leader of the federal liberal party
In the first instance, nothing Trump has done has caused the LNP to slip in the polls.
The problem is that Dutton and his crew went out of their way to parrot Trump. And they’re still doing it.
If they had put any effort into building sensible policies – that might appeal to a slightly right-of-centre voter – they’d be home and hosed now.
They need to:
* ditch their stupid policies like nuclear power, climate change denial, anti-integrity, free lunches for mates, lower taxes for the rich;
* strike a deal with the Teals by adopting their policies holus-bolus, and not compete with them in their electorates, and
* aim for a true coalition minority government.
It’s not too late.
Boerwar @ #54 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 7:01 pm
That is assuming Tehan holds off against Alex Dyson. Also James Paterson is a Senator so convention states that he can’t be leader.
The winning move would be Bridget Archer in that the Teals would probably consider supporting a government under her leadership, but she’s just an icky girl-lady who crossed the floor so that would never win over the bulk of the LNP.
If Sussan Ley doesnt put her name down for leader and no other federal liberal party member puts their name down
Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor would be the federal liberal party leader by default ,
This was posted yesterday but still no Redbridge.
Lazarussays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:30 pm
With regards to the Redbridge poll. While talking about Newspoll on Sky News a set of figures was put up from Redbridge showing Coalition on 36 and Labor on 35 for primary vote.
It was quickly taken down.
@Hack, woke, Partisansays: Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:58 pm
Iirc Kevin Bonham wrote a blogpost going over polling trends (or was it his polling aggregate updates?) and one of them was about how polling will narrow the closer to the election we go. That was seen in 2019, 2022 and 2024 QLD election.
I can’t find it though, might have to dig into the archives. It was definitely written a few months ago (2024-25)
May 3 will go down as a day of reckoning for the Reactionaries. Their moronic subscriptions to the imbecile, the treacherous Trump, will have brought them down.
OC –
I’m entirely open to some move away from fee for service; as you say there seems no political will to have any discussion of real reform of the way medicare/public hospitals work or how to fund them properly, and I guess that continues until it absolutely all falls apart, which may not be far away if no party aiming for government is game for talking about increasing revenue.
That seems like a problem for the tax system that should be addressed in some way rather than something ideas for health funding reform should need to pretzel their way around.
Susssan Ley is on 16.4% margin in Farrer, so has a better hope of remaining than Well Done Angus who,is only 7.5% in Hume.
Maybe time for someone like Julian Leeser, to try to woo the Teal voters back?
Here’s hoping Dyson vacuums up enough Tehan votes and flips Wannon.
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:58 pm
Bludgeoned Westie says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:43 pm
…Dutton is the least electable LOTO we have ever seen. His party is absolutely without talent, ideas or connection to the electorate. They should expect to lose in a walk-over.
**********
As a rusted on Labor voter, I feel obliged to say Latham gives him a run for his money.
Bluey is wondering whether the various numbers are a stampeding herd effect. Bluey won’t be doing a score tomorrow or the next day.
Cos.
If Labor retain majority government, Rowan Dean’s head and arms will flail all over the place as he accuses the whole country of having Trump Derangement Syndrome
Entropy
The Daily Rupert has the rights to Redbridge polls, in particular the 20 seat tracking poll. Wave 3 was so bad for the Coalition that they have only partially reported on Friday last week, and buried it in the farthest reaches of their site.
From what I can tell, Kos Samaras has not put up the extensive findings (over 50 pages) they did for Waves 1 and 2.
… slight issue why Leeser won’t be the leader of the current incarnation of the LNP… and I mean LNP.
It’s definitely premature – but it really shows just how thin the Lib bench is, when the BEST option is a God-bothering warhawk. But this is what happens when you purge moderates or make them unwelcome when you’re cosplaying as Republicans instead of Australian Liberals.
sprocket_ says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 7:09 pm
Maybe time for someone like Julian Leeser, to try to woo the Teal voters back?
—————————————————————–
Would the lib/nats propaganda media units , accept Julian Leeser or treat him like they did to Malcolm Turnbull
Can’t forget that Labor Members and many rusted ons thought Latham was the great next hope and a breath of fresh air. The big campaign blunders were the old growth forests and the schools hit lists
> Here’s hoping Dyson vacuums up enough Tehan votes and flips Wannon.
As a dad I endorse this
Albo has been just about haunting Queensland for the whole term – he seems to have been here every second week. I think that’s more significant and I’ve been wondering if it would work. Seems I may have had my answer
A good factor for Federal Labor in NSW would be the popularity of Premier Chris Minns.
Are what moon would Bridget Archer be able to lead the Liberal party? To lead, you need to be at least marching in the general direction that everyone else is heading. That was Turnbull’s undoing, he attempt to lead them in a direction and party room said we don’t want to go in that direction – Twice! Dutton has always had a sense of being unelectable, hence why the party went with Morrison.
Historic Election says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 7:15 pm
*******
That’s true. And I was working hard to get the ALP elected in 2004. I wonder how rusted on Libs will consider Dutton with the same 20 year hindsight we have about Latham.
Just thought I’d make it clear that I’m by no means 100% confident of a Labor victory, just I feel happier posting more optimistic outlooks because it pisses off the pro-LNP lot.
That’s all they seem to be about these days anyway, thrashing the “woke-left”. Well this is some push-back.
Minns really? He never saw an empty CBD office block that he didn’t want to force workers to attend or a CBD finance company that he didn’t want to parachute into or a koala that he didn’t want to log the living shit out of after promising not to, that bloke.
“Hard Being Greensays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:41 pm
So both today’s polls tick the box on
A combined major party primary vote under 2/3rds
And
The Greens in the teens (all over the country in the case of Resolve)
We’re headed for a minority Labor government folks, question is how close to 76 do they land?
Another bonus, an independent speaker
#25in25”
If Labor gets anything like what these polls are saying we are in for a deliciously expanded Labor majority
Leeser was forced to resign because he supported the Voice.
They would only make him a leader in order to crucify him.
B. S. Fairman @ #76 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 7:18 pm
I meant it in a sense of a chess move that goes beyond logic. Of course I don’t think the LNP would function for a week if Archer became leader, but games have been won decisively by such ridiculous moves as sacrificing the Queen to get a Checkmate victory.
Clive knows how to pick ‘em
A man on bail for a number of serious offences, including stalking and weapons charges, will stand against Opposition Leader Peter Dutton this federal election.
Michael Norman Jessop is a candidate for Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots party, and will be listed on the ballot paper under Mr Dutton in the marginal Brisbane electorate of Dickson.
Mr Jessop says he will fight what he describes as “trumped-up” charges.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-14/michael-jessop-bail-serious-charges-federal-election-candidate/105174716
Price is a smokey.
She was much talked about as a future prime minister straight after she helped Dutton sink the Voice.
If the cap fits…
Dutton is losing his seat!
What’s wrong with Trumped up charges?
Can 79 million Americans be wrong?
And thanks to the SMH reporter who demanded a response… and got blather about “my excellent points”, Dutton looked delusional. He’s spent all his last three years ( 36 months, 156 weeks) talking to ‘easy’, ‘friendly’, ‘ supportive’ media AND NOW HE’S EXPOSED.. and not very polished or pretty at all …
Bludgeoned Westie says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 7:08 pm
Fair comment. KB is often right. However, this time a swing is on. A very discernible swing and it is mounting. It’s very possible that by the time the votes are in the counter-Reactionary split will be close to 2:1. They have run the worst of campaigns in living memory. Decisively, Donald Trump is on the ballot next to the name of every Liberal candidate. Faced with the choice of a Never-Trump Labor candidate or a moronic proxy for Trump, voters will reject the Reactionaries.
I’ve seen some wipeouts in elections in the past. 1975 and 1977, federally. 2017, 2021 and 2025 in WA. There have been massive shifts in QLD elections. So anything is possible. 1929, 1943, 2025. Historic wins.
Boerwar says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 7:24 pm
Price is a smokey.
She was much talked about as a future prime minister straight after she helped Dutton sink the Voice.
If the cap fits…
—————-
Despite being a County liberal party member , Jacinta price is a member of the national party .
Latham was hilarious. At one stage he actually thought he was an intellectual. Presumably because he wore glasses and quoted Francis Fukuyama.
Damon says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 7:28 pm
“my excellent points”.. sure…
https://youtu.be/nQGewuJQNBs
Nath – He did write a few books. I love how in the Latham Diaries he advises against going into politics.
The Family First Party has disendorsed one of its federal election candidates after a series of comments he made on social media.
19-year-old Malachi Brogden Hearne, who describes himself as a “teenage political savant”, had been selected to contest the LNP-held seat of Longman, but has now been disendorsed.
As candidate nominations have been closed, Hearne will still appear on the ballot with the Family First name. Speaking to The Noticer, Hearne said comments leading to his disendorsement included:
“Two women cannot and should not raise children…lesbianism is disgusting” under a story about Matildas player Tameka Yallop and wife Kirsty announcing they are expecting second child.
A post saying Australia was “built solely by white Christian men”.
“At least they’re white” in response to South Australia Police hiring UK-based officers
A post saying “White people need to start breeding like rabbits”.
https://www.6newsau.com/post/family-first-candidate-disendorsed-over-social-media-posts
Latham’s worst crime was completely butchering the Medicare Gold policy. A fundamental shift in healthcare funding which he decided not to announce until 7 days before the election.
andrewmck
I doubt Dutton has a diary in him. See him becoming a footnote. If he doesn’t win and ends his political career, he may be barely remembered in 20 years time. One of those Trivia questions.
Just checking my social media, the Dutton 20 year old kid not being able to afford a house, despite having a multi millionaire father, is getting lampooned and going viral.
The rise of the Teals is not yet complete. This is a split in the centre-Right. As long as it continues the Liberal Party cannot hope to form a Government on their own terms. Since they also have to meet the demands of the rural populists, the Nationals, the Liberals face more or less permanent opposition.
This arises because they have become a quasi-theocratic, ideologically-obsessed subsidiary of a MAGA-dominated US Republican Party. They are derivative, empty, aberrant and estranged from the Australian electorate.
The Teal movement is a response to the structural aberrations – to the declines – in the membership of the Liberal Party, who have become no more than a brand name on a box filled with stupidity.