More evidence of a tide to Labor from Nine Newspapers’ Resolve Strategic poll, which has been (at least since the end of 2023) one of the strongest series for the Coalition, but now credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, compared with 50-50 in the post-budget poll and 55-45 to the Coalition with a distinctly poor result for Labor in the mid-February poll. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 31% (amounting to a six-point increase from the mid-February poll), while the Coalition is down three to 34% (five since mid-February), the Greens are steady on 13%, and One Nation are down one to 8%. Independents are up three to 12% — presumably this is based on a generic question that will be superseded in coming Resolve Strategic polls tailored to the candidates running in the respondent’s electorate, causing this number to fall.
Anthony Albanese is now in net positive territory on his personal ratings, his combined good and very good result up six to 45% (an 11-point improvement since mid-February), while poor plus very poor is down six to 43% (a 13-point improvement). Peter Dutton is down three to 34% and up six to 53% (an 13-point deterioration since mid-February on both counts). Anthony Albanese now leads 46-30 on preferred prime minister, out from 42-33 last time. The poll also finds 33% saying their view of Donald Trump has made them less likely to vote Coalition, compared with 14% for more likely, with respective numbers of 21% and 22% for Labor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1642.
There is also the regular weekly Roy Morgan poll, which has Labor leading 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 53.5-46.5, which reflects improvement for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences rather than primary votes: Labor is down half to 32%, the Coalition is up half to 33.5%, the Greens are up one to 14.5% and One Nation is steady at 6%. The two-party measure based on previous election preference flows also has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, which is unchanged on last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1708.
Resolve Strategic’s breakdowns show this poll to be distinctive for a strong result for Labor among men, at 34% on the primary vote compared with 29% among women. Breakdowns for the three largest states show Labor up five in Queensland and the Coalition down six in New South Wales, without correspondingly large movement for the other major party. All of which has now been incorporated in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, giving Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings a substantial lift without adding anything noticeable to voting intention, on which Labor’s two-party vote shot up 0.7% with the addition of last night’s Newspoll. Essential Research, which a been a little stickier than other pollsters over the last month or so, should be along overnight.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has broken out of its stasis, with Labor now holding a lead of 50% (up two) to 45% (down two) on the 2PP+ measure, which leaves room for a 5% undecided component. On the primary vote, which also includes a 5% undecided component, Labor is up one to 31%, the Coalition is down two to 32%, and the Greens are up a point to 13%. The pollster has followed its own course with Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, which surged in January and have been fairly stable since: the latest result has him steady on 44% approval and up one on disapproval to 47%. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 39% and up one on disapproval to 48%. The pollster doesn’t track preferred prime minister, but this result includes head-to-head questions on handling key issues, which find Albanese leading Dutton 34% to 28% on his presumed weak point of addressing the cost of living, and 30% to 20% on Dutton’s presumed strength of keeping Australians safe. Both leaders were favoured by 29% for responding to the Trump administration’s tariffs.
The foregoing is based on a report in The Guardian — a full report will be along later today. The poll had a sample of 2142 and was likely conducted Wednesday to Monday.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. The Coalition continues to do better than Labor on firmness of voting intention. The voting intention numbers have increased Labor’s two-party lead on BludgerTrack from 51.6-48.4 to 51.9-48.1, and it now shows swings (however slight) to Labor in four of the five states being tracked, with the inevitable exception of Victoria.
Sprocket are you suggesting Lars posts under multi user names ?z If so who ?.
I can assure it isn’t me. I’m me. I have a close relative who is currently serving as an MP in a state Labor government. I’d never be able to get away with being Lars. I even made a nice donation to pollbludger the other day to prove as much.
Speaking of which, William did you give Ven the acknowledgement he demanded ?. lol! Classic Ven – makes a modest donation to a service he uses 18 hours a day and then publicly demand the recipient honours him in a public post lol!
Griff at 7.46 pm
Why not wish Antony Green a rare event on his last broadcast, such as a first term government increasing its majority after a long media write off?
Old Spoke @ #886 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 8:33 pm
And that, basically, it’s an electoral bribe. Way to telegraph your moves in neon lights!
Sure Lars isn’t Nath? Pretty sure everyone else on here has been accused of being Nath at one point or another…
Was Lars originally Ed St John? Who became Edwina St John before morphing into Lars? The original Ed was around a long time ago. I always felt they were a group project, but the more recent iteration of Lars seems to have been just one person.
Democracy Sausagesays:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 7:14 pm
“Ali France is clearly a decent candidate and the independent standing this time in Dickson will help her a lot, but I imagine Dutton will probably hang on by 1 or 2%”
2PP ALP vote in Dickson since 2004:
2022 48.3% (3.8 lower than the national figure)
2019 45.4% (3.1 lower)
2016 48.4% (1.2 lower)
2013 43.3% (3.2 lower)
2010 44.9% (5.2 lower)
2007 49.9% (2.8 lower)
2004 42.2% (5.1 lower)
(source: Wikipedia)
Puff, The Magic Dragon at 7.57 pm
You have discovered the main reason why Michael Kirby is a committed monarchist.
Not because of the media circus that is called The Royal Family, but because a US-style elected Head of State would be a puerile celebrity.
He describes his position as a sort of anarchist adherence to the monarchy, as a system that is better only than the most likely republican alternative.
Griffsays:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 8:22 pm
Confessions says:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 8:19 pm
What has happened to Lars? I haven’t been paying attention, so sorry if I missed something important.
_______
Disappeared. Like 2022 but a little bit earlier this time.
==============================================
So we have been wasting our time watching all these polls drop. The best indicator of a Labor win and its magnitude is how long before the election Lars stops posting.
arraitch @ #896 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 8:41 pm
Much appreciated. 🙂
I’m me. I’m a mother of kittens. 😀
Lars with others is out there on the hustings banging away for Allegra, a compromise candidate for the Treasurer’s portfolio in a minority Labor government.
Lars should be commended for having to consume pre mixers and associate with “others”.
Never go to the south of Bondi Road and past the water edge on the southern side of the harbour.
A trouper!
Confessions I agree re forensic analyst of Lars.
He could go from engaging in highly specific and narrow references and discussions of highly cultured niche subjects and popular culture references and the next minute post semiliterate , short hand modern slang like ‘tru dat’ and make basic and painfully obvious grammatical errors like their/there/they’re etc
I’m a republican because I don’t want Australia to live under a Saudi-style absolute monarchy.
See how dumb such a false binary strawman sounds?
ScromoII:
Even if Labor win a minority government, Dutton has achieved his phase one of a two term strategy and will continue as Liberal leader for the forseeable future. Indeed, a Labor minority would be lucky to last more than year before a snap election is inevitable with the also inevitable result of a massive Coalition win in the 95+ seat range. Polling will see Labor fall to Gillard-like levels by winter.
Even if Labor manages to get a small minority, they will likely fall into minority within a short time through defections and by-elections.
All this points to Dutton becoming prime minister whether he wins or loses this election – and in the latter case, it would likely happen in less than two years (one – if Labor is reduced to a minority as is more likely). Australia will be made great again!
——–
Oh, OK.
Update from Alex Dyson campaign (vs Tehan in Wannon) mentions new poll has them at 50:50, no details
Re-posting for the Max Chandler-Mather haters:
https://live.australiainstitute.org.au/2025/04/australia-institute-live-day-18-of-the-2025-election-campaign/page/3/#e290564928
“One of the things which has been underestimated in the battle for the Greens electorate of Griffith is that Max Chandler-Mather is a popular figure in his community, because of things like the free school meals programs he has created.
Since his election in 2022, MCM has served 40,000 free breakfasts across four local schools in the electorate. He has funded it from his own salary (which is one of the reasons he is still a renter – his partner has recently had a baby and they have been living on one salary, with MCM using the excess of his salary to fund community programs)
MCM has been in politics from the time he was a baby adult – first in the Labor party and then as part of the Greens campaign team (he and I butted heads a few times when I was covering Qldpol so believe me when I say that professionally, we go way back) and because of those experiences, he understands local politics in a way not many first term MPs do.
And so while Labor and the LNP are putting a huge amount of resources to winning back the three Queensland Greens seats, they might be underestimating the personal popularity of members like MCM. The major party campaigns are fairly focused on what the Greens have been doing nationally and what they think national voters (mostly their own) have been frustrated by, and not what local voters are seeing.
Today, the Greens are announcing a plan to take MCM’s free school meals’ program nationally….”
bug1 @ #915 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 9:02 pm
Have you seen Alex Dyson’s preferences?
Dr Doolittle says:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 8:57 pm
Puff, The Magic Dragon at 7.57 pm
You have discovered the main reason why Michael Kirby is a committed monarchist.
Not because of the media circus that is called The Royal Family, but because a US-style elected Head of State would be a puerile celebrity.
He describes his position as a sort of anarchist adherence to the monarchy, as a system that is better only than the most likely republican alternative.
_________________________________________
This goes back to the republic referendum. People like me wanted to see a formal separation from the Crown but not a structural realignment. In other words we wanted a president that behaved like a Governor-General (Kerr aside) rather than a separate source of power like the president of the USA or France.
In the end we got neither, but retaining the monarchy was a hell of a lot closer to what most Australians wanted than a Republic with an elected President who could claim their own entitlement to exercise power.
Question for scrimoll and Paul A:
Do you like sex and travel ?
Has Bill Posters been prosecuted yet?
Windhover at 8.27 pm
With respect, I think you have focused on policy without considering tactics.
E.g. the climate policy fiasco since 2007. If Labor didn’t have to convince the Greens over climate policy, then the Libs would never have benefited from J. Gillard’s campaign blunder regarding a potential carbon tax.
Remember that senators elected in 2019 are to be replaced if they fail to get re-elected, excluding territories.
Labor is heading for a stronger TPP vote in Reps than 2022.
Key test is SA. Can Labor win the 6th seat, which they lost to Libs in 2022.
I’m me, and so is my wife.
Re Lars, over the years I think he’s been Edwina (Someone) and Leisure Suit Larry if I recall correctly. Those characters always struck me as urbane, affected, intelligent but ultimately conflicted types who wanted to be more progressive than their blue ribbon old Liberal heritage would allow.
C@tmomma @ #909 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 9:06 pm
From what I gather from this page, Dyson isn’t preferencing anyone, seems like an open ticket.
https://www.alexdysonindependent.com/make_vote_count
Any system looks good or bad if you consider the right or wrong example. The UK monarchy is a model of stability. But what if we had the Romanoffs running Australia?
Republics with elected Presidents might seem bad considering USA at present.
But there are republics in my family background with elected presidents (Finland and Ireland) with strictly defined powers that have been stable and equitable.
Confessions, the Chandler Mather brain blurt on freezing house prices was in an interview on ABC news (Perth I think) this morning. He seemed to be saying it was “policy”.
Check the abc news site.
leftieBrawlersays:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 9:00 pm
Confessions I agree re forensic analyst of Lars.
He could go from engaging in highly specific and narrow references and discussions of highly cultured niche subjects and popular culture references and the next minute post semiliterate , short hand modern slang like ‘tru dat’ and make basic and painfully obvious grammatical errors like their/there/they’re etc
===================================================
Igor’s and Boris’s command of the English language is terrible. However, when either Ivan, Dimitri, or Nikolai are online, you can’t fault the grammar.
LB
The Lars username appeared to be shared by a number of seperate individuals, given the at times 24/7 posting here.
Plus the prior handle and gender changes.
Theories ranged from a SignalGroup of YoungLibs to the lunch room at the DailyRupert.
But not ruling out your nath skulduggery
Lynchpin are you me or I you?
My thoughts exactly regarding Lars:
Re Lars, over the years I think he’s been Edwina (Someone) and Leisure Suit Larry if I recall correctly. Those characters always struck me as urbane, affected, intelligent but ultimately conflicted types who wanted to be more progressive than their blue ribbon old Liberal heritage would allow.
Dr Doolittle
“ Key test is SA. Can Labor win the 6th seat, which they lost to Libs in 2022.”
I declare bias as a Labor leaning SA bludger. That being said the SA Liberals haven’t put a foot right in the past year. I will be amazed if they get three seats.
Kevin Bonham:
“The Liberals have recommended preferences to Labor ahead of Peter George in #Franklin. While their card may not get much follow rate this makes George’s task very much more difficult. #politas
Salmon industry would be very much “not happy jan” if Libs did otherwise.”
Peter George, Independent for Franklin:
https://petergeorgeforfranklin.com/
“Labor and Liberal are selling us out.
They’re putting corporate interests and overseas profit before the people of Franklin.”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 3:21 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 3:16 pm
I’ve been saying for a long time that I’m a disgrace.
‘I’m a disgrace and so is my wife.’
I’ll feel very ripped off if Lars was nothing more than a circle jerking composite of a group of young liberals rogering themselves ala the member for kiama
Poor little , Maxy Hyphen-Hyphen. Us howwible Max Haters are to be condemned!
Pegasus, do you know how ridiculous a fair number of your posts are? Especially the hypocrisy in lights ones, like this one about Max Chandler-Mather. Do you realise why they’re ridiculous and the essence of hypocrisy? So, let me tell you. It’s because, every day, in every way, you and your fellow Greens’ travellers, absolutely hate on Labor with an unerring repetitiveness that has an uncanny similarity to being hit on the head with a hammer. Yet when one of your precious, university politics level Greens luvvies like Maxy, cops a bit of genuine criticism you turn on a dime and play the victim, or, as in this case, you think you’re oh so smart and smarmy to bring up, as in regurgitate, one more example of his undergraduate level of thinking about serious issues.
I guess you are so blinkered that you can’t see it, but I’m pretty sure a lot of others here can. Yet I know you will blithely carry on doing this self same thing with the level of self awareness we usually ascribe to Liberal politicians, and without taking a backwards step, or to stop and think that maybe that approach may not be as successful in drumming up support for The Greens as you think it is?
Greens will most likely have the balance of power in WA when results maybe released tomorrow.
That will make WA news and the libs need to be ready to hammer labor on back to back state and federal greens Balance of power.
There is a vote swinger right there!
Blowout of unemployment in Thurs figures?
Leftie, I don’t mind.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/04/14/federal-polls-resolve-strategic-and-roy-morgan-open-thread/comment-page-18/#comment-4501149, the Australia Institute had a webinar on, that said major parties used to get ~40% each of PV, now collectively they are down to about 2/ 3
One of the memorable lines was pollyTICs respond to pain and threat of pain, beyond please explains, housing, (lack of insurance), gas reservation and charges, national security angle to (NIO) climate disruption threads are coming together, es evidenced by preps to help Tuvalu
Some dumb letter drop showed up today with the gov promising more on Medicare, ABT because nearest clinic here went mixed billing, apparent only ‘valid under Labor’, nearest Medicare Urgent clinic is about an hour
Nuthink on Medicare Dental, or confusion over a housing fund vs actual social housing …
Not that I doubt it is more likely through the gov, especially going minority, that Nbnco might get improved. After all Telstra’s Ugly Sister was their idea, killing competition in metro to keep whatever hasn’t happened in regional yet off budget
All you stooges are spending your time talking about Lars and I. That’s because despite your cowardly stooge hearts you unconsciously revere true Democrats and true citizens.
pied pipersays:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 9:16 pm
Greens will most likely have the balance of power in WA when results maybe released tomorrow.
==============================================
Only if the LNP side with them. Are you suggesting this will happen?
I’d like William’s thoughts on the whole Lars situation. William what are your thoughts ?
I think One Nation are more likely to benefit from the Liberal Party not winning a third seat in SA than Labor. Regardless of what the results are in Boothby and Sturt, I still think the Senate will be 2 ALP 1 Green with the other three being either 3 Liberal or 2 Liberal 1 PHON.
But, then again, there’s bugger all polling here, let alone an election campaign and sentiment is hard to read. Who knows?
I wonder how many people reasonably thought WA, of all places, would be a state to elect 3 ALP and 1 Green (especially after Victorians spent a better part of a decade boasting they’d be the ones to do that)?
Rossmcg…(Old pun)
Bill Posters is innocent!
I think the “Ed St John” persona may have appeared around 15 years ago.
The real Ed St John was an eminent Sydney barrister and somewhat contrarian Federal Liberal MP in the 1960s.
“Pegasus, do you know how ridiculous a fair number of your posts are?”
Thanks for the laugh. You are a hoot.
Catmomma, do you know how ridiculous a fair number of your posts are?
Kirsdarke @ #923 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 9:09 pm
It may be different in Victoria, but in NSW this sort of thing, as we have OPV for the NSW State elections, has led to followers of the person who doesn’t suggest preferences only voting 1 for their person, or allocating an incomplete set of numbers on the ballot paper. Hence it ends up being thrown away. I hope this doesn’t happen to him.
Tricot
Glad there’s somebody old like me to remember.
You fools still haven’t figured out that Lars is actually William.
I figured it out years ago.
2022 3CP in Griffith:
GRN 36.4% (up 11.6)
LNP 33.9% (down 9.5)
ALP 29.7% (down 2.1)
(source: AEC)
I don’t think Nath and Lars are one and the same.
One a nuanced and subtle type who usually talked the talk of the born to rule waspy old boys nepotistic Sydney GPS networks – the other an engaged, loud, uncouth and certifiable Melbornite
Dr Doolittle says:
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 8:51 pm
Griff at 7.46 pm
Why not wish Antony Green a rare event on his last broadcast, such as a first term government increasing its majority after a long media write off?
_____________
I shall try, but it is difficult. I am somewhat selfish in my pre-nostalgic condition.
Pegasus @ #943 Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 – 9:20 pm
1. Showing your lack of original thought. Thanks for the copy cat reply.
2. Yet again proving that you haven’t changed. Snark is your talisman.
Oh, and 3. Like I care whether I make you laugh or cry. 🙂
4. Bye bye. Boring, predictable, blinkered and snarky isn’t my thing.