More evidence of a tide to Labor from Nine Newspapers’ Resolve Strategic poll, which has been (at least since the end of 2023) one of the strongest series for the Coalition, but now credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5, compared with 50-50 in the post-budget poll and 55-45 to the Coalition with a distinctly poor result for Labor in the mid-February poll. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 31% (amounting to a six-point increase from the mid-February poll), while the Coalition is down three to 34% (five since mid-February), the Greens are steady on 13%, and One Nation are down one to 8%. Independents are up three to 12% — presumably this is based on a generic question that will be superseded in coming Resolve Strategic polls tailored to the candidates running in the respondent’s electorate, causing this number to fall.
Anthony Albanese is now in net positive territory on his personal ratings, his combined good and very good result up six to 45% (an 11-point improvement since mid-February), while poor plus very poor is down six to 43% (a 13-point improvement). Peter Dutton is down three to 34% and up six to 53% (an 13-point deterioration since mid-February on both counts). Anthony Albanese now leads 46-30 on preferred prime minister, out from 42-33 last time. The poll also finds 33% saying their view of Donald Trump has made them less likely to vote Coalition, compared with 14% for more likely, with respective numbers of 21% and 22% for Labor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1642.
There is also the regular weekly Roy Morgan poll, which has Labor leading 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 53.5-46.5, which reflects improvement for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences rather than primary votes: Labor is down half to 32%, the Coalition is up half to 33.5%, the Greens are up one to 14.5% and One Nation is steady at 6%. The two-party measure based on previous election preference flows also has Labor leading 54.5-45.5, which is unchanged on last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1708.
Resolve Strategic’s breakdowns show this poll to be distinctive for a strong result for Labor among men, at 34% on the primary vote compared with 29% among women. Breakdowns for the three largest states show Labor up five in Queensland and the Coalition down six in New South Wales, without correspondingly large movement for the other major party. All of which has now been incorporated in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, giving Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings a substantial lift without adding anything noticeable to voting intention, on which Labor’s two-party vote shot up 0.7% with the addition of last night’s Newspoll. Essential Research, which a been a little stickier than other pollsters over the last month or so, should be along overnight.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has broken out of its stasis, with Labor now holding a lead of 50% (up two) to 45% (down two) on the 2PP+ measure, which leaves room for a 5% undecided component. On the primary vote, which also includes a 5% undecided component, Labor is up one to 31%, the Coalition is down two to 32%, and the Greens are up a point to 13%. The pollster has followed its own course with Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, which surged in January and have been fairly stable since: the latest result has him steady on 44% approval and up one on disapproval to 47%. Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 39% and up one on disapproval to 48%. The pollster doesn’t track preferred prime minister, but this result includes head-to-head questions on handling key issues, which find Albanese leading Dutton 34% to 28% on his presumed weak point of addressing the cost of living, and 30% to 20% on Dutton’s presumed strength of keeping Australians safe. Both leaders were favoured by 29% for responding to the Trump administration’s tariffs.
The foregoing is based on a report in The Guardian — a full report will be along later today. The poll had a sample of 2142 and was likely conducted Wednesday to Monday.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. The Coalition continues to do better than Labor on firmness of voting intention. The voting intention numbers have increased Labor’s two-party lead on BludgerTrack from 51.6-48.4 to 51.9-48.1, and it now shows swings (however slight) to Labor in four of the five states being tracked, with the inevitable exception of Victoria.
I remember the 2022 Victorian State election where nearly every pundit in the media was predicting a Labor minority government.
And the start of the election broadcasts were dominated by the hosts and their ‘expert guests’ saying how the Coalition had ‘won’ the campaign. Apparently in the Sky coverage they were really selling this narrative.
Then the actual votes started coming in – confirming Labor had not only maintained its majority but had actually increased it!
I heard that on the Sky coverage their whole attitude changed and they started savaging Liberal leader Matthew Guy and all his cohorts and blaming them for the terrible campaign and awful result.
The current Federal campaign is starting to remind me of this. And if Labor do happen to increase their majority, the Sky After Dark (SAD!) crew will totally lose it I think!
Sprocket, What are the gender differences in the Resolve poll? TIA
Did I read that right, the LNP is 28% in the Rest of Australia!?! 😯
No doubt the Left will be crowing on about how Dutton is now terminal. But the end result the reverse will be their lot!
I wonder how the Liberals are feeling at the moment I know at the beginning of the year j1983 said that will expecting labour minority I wonder what’s going to happen now
ScromoII bro please just just don’t be the stupid okay
ScromoII @ #4 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:32 pm
Bravo for taking one for the team, ScromoII. 🙂
Scommoll another who is not going backwards – apparently reversing forwards.
Full Resolve Queensland primaries – graphs on right show trend
The counter-Reactionary vote is around 60%. The Reactionary tally in the House will very likely be in the 40s. Maybe by May 3 – as currently less-than-firmly committed voters focus more on the choices – the Reactionary tally will be in the 30s. I very devoutly hope so. The Reactionaries are deceitful, treacherous and cowardly. They are estranged from the Australian people and have become fixated on serving a foreign power. They do not deserve to be in the Parliament at all.
Baked. Golly. Gosh. Ouch. In.
Join the Dots!
Maybe the electorate has figured out an effective way to knock on the head Blocker Bandt’s threat to ‘force’ Labor to do this and that?
And Resolve Victorian primaries graphs showing big turnaround..
Quentin Rountree @ #5 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:32 pm
For the first time in a long time today I heard a Liberal, ‘on background’, say that they really have a 2 Term strategy to beat Labor. /s
I am looking for the polling for Donald Trump in resolve cannot find it strange as the story in the Age etc says it’s all due to Trump that the libs are behind.
Evidence please!
Resolve did not include launches on Sunday.Morgan did but it’s not reliable.
Rocket Rocketsays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:29 pm
I remember the 2022 Victorian State election where nearly every pundit in the media was predicting a Labor minority government…
…The current Federal campaign is starting to remind me of this. And if Labor do happen to increase their majority, the Sky After Dark (SAD!) crew will totally lose it I think!”
I too remember the polling say Dan Andrews would lose his seat and his Govt would be Minority – meanwhile the opposite occurred.
Same here in QLD when the Curious Snail (Courier Mail) was predicting Labor would be wiped out in 2020 due the Premiers hardline on Covid (not as hard as Victoria). Meanwhile, there was a swing towards Labor in Currumbin (most southern seat) and the ALP picked up an extra 5 seats overall.
In times of uncertainty, one does not change the horse or the jockey… If this continues until polling day, SAD’s Commentary team will explode…
Cat
“ Did I read that right, the LNP is 28% in the Rest of Australia!?! ”
————————————————————
I can’t speak for Tasmania but in SA and WA there is hardly a sane Liberal candidate left in either State. Both State Liberal branches are now dominated by Hillsong-style religious fundies.
These polls will be a significant test of Simon Benson’s polishing skills.
Socrates (AnonBlock)
Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:28 pm
Comment #769
That’s funny. Two new polls and no sign of Centre, Pied Piper or Steely Dan.
Are they passing around the smelling salts at Menzies House?
Not to mention, paul A, FUBAR, Lars Von Trier and nadia88.
The Primary votes in Queensland from this Resolve poll, (compared to the 2022 election).
LNP: 38% (-1.6)
ALP: 30% (+2.6)
GRN: 13% (+0.1)
ON: 8% (+0.5)
OTH: 12% (-0.5)
Yes, might not happen on the day, but Dutton is in serious trouble in Dickson if these results are accurate.
It is definitely time for Dutton to use his renown lateral thinking by suggesting LNP voters support Labor to avoid risk of minority government.
Peg, just for you..
Socrates @ #16 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:36 pm
The Liberals have taken that thing too far. It’s time for them to correct course and go find some Moderates. The Teals are proving to be the lost Liberal tribe that they need.
Catmama make the way it’s going to be a f****** four term plan I mean also just because something work call Tony doesn’t mean it’s going to work again holy s*** did game plan a Trump Victory they would have to know he’s insane and would drag their vote down honestly they should have been married when the the first pole of the year of the year had them at 51 to 49 if I was a liberal campaign I would be like ah hey guys we need to be better than that
This Wednesday , will be around 2.5 weeks till federal election day , The federal lib/nats time of showing they have actual new policies and not old policies or thought bubbles is running out
Pied Piper they look at Peter and they see a Trump wannabe they kept saying to people the crazies like you that Australia’s a very moderate country a little bit conservative but moderate when Trump won the election but barely they took that as a sign to go full throttle and now look what happened
So both today’s polls tick the box on
A combined major party primary vote under 2/3rds
And
The Greens in the teens (all over the country in the case of Resolve)
We’re headed for a minority Labor government folks, question is how close to 76 do they land?
Another bonus, an independent speaker
#25in25
Kevin Bonham’s Poll Aggregator has Labor up to 52.3 with today’s polls, so into modest favourable swing territory.
Anyone sick of ads or windows for that matter. Installing mx linux and brave browser is super easy.
Mx is really excellent and installing as dual boot is idiot proof these days. Antivirus no longer needed is a bonus. As someone mentioned re raspberry pi, I haven’t seen an ad in years either.
These two polls continue the trend!! AlP majority is my best bet.
Labor got two good polls today, ig this is it for the rest of the week considering the long weekend is coming up… Unless YouGov releases one on Thursday evening.
Pollbludger aggregates for VIC now show a 2.8% swing against Labor, huge improvement from the abysmal 5% swing back in Jan/Feb. Ngl I thought it’d get worse from February onwards but I was wrong. Still sub-20s in VIC tho. Sorry guys, somebody had to do it, can’t not have this classic PB joke die 😛
Even though Labor fans will celebrate for another week, there’s still 3 weeks (well basically 2 but this week’s barely started) left and a debate on Wednesday, so anything can go wrong for Labor btw now and then.
Also like with all polling I expect it to narrow the closer we get to an election.
Jackol
From previous thread:
The fee for service system we have for GP may encourage GPs to overservice while the NHS capitation scheme may result in underservicing. The NZers have a system that combines the two, which I like but the copayments they have are high.
I like the idea of the ATO getting the payment but what of the rich who pay no tax?
Refreshing to have a campaign where polling seems to improve for the ALP. Quite the rarity. Three weeks to go feels like an eternity. Hope you’ve all been well, and same for your families and loved ones.
The Trump factor only kicked in after the ludicrous tariff announcements, the subsequent economic fallout and now economic uncertainty caused by the “Will he? Won’t he?” tariff see-saw.
Before then, despite not being that popular with Australians, he was mostly seen as an “over there” problem, and local conservative association with him just superficial politics.
ScromoII says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:32 pm
No doubt the Left will be crowing on about how Dutton is now terminal. But the end result the reverse will be their lot!
I trust the good sense of Australian voters. They will choose ‘safe hands’ in a storm. Labor should return more than 90 members.
In electing Labor, voters will very decisively reject the idiotically ideological, utterly vacuous and disgracefully disloyal Dutton and his Reactionaries. On May 3 the Liberals should lose most of their seats. The Nationals should emerge as the largest caretaker-Opposition party.
Hopefully then the Liberal Party will decide to dissolve itself and find a way to reconstitute themselves as a modernist, community-facing, non-ideological/non-theocratic new party.
ltep @ #30 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:14 pm
I have a working theory Labor campaign best when they start from behind, or at least in a position of real vulnerability. They seem to act sloppiest when they think they already have it in the bag.
Bludgeoned Westiesays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:43 pm
Labor got two good polls today, ig this is it for the rest of the week considering the long weekend is coming up… Unless YouGov releases one on Thursday evening.
Pollbludger aggregates for VIC now show a 2.8% swing against Labor, huge improvement from the abysmal 5% swing back in Jan/Feb. Ngl I thought it’d get worse from February onwards but I was wrong. Still sub-20s in VIC tho. Sorry guys, somebody had to do it, can’t not have this classic PB joke die
————
2.8% swing against labor in Victoria looks more likely than 5% did because Victoria isn’t a big swinging state and never felt the baseball bats were out so that’s why keep saying liberals might do better in its seats the teal seats and safer seats they can’t win but labor might hold its marginals.
Those Resolve gender breakdowns have a big resurgence to Labor by men.
This appears to be counterfactual , given the tough guy persona of Peter Dutton – though maybe a growing proportion of the men of Australia aren’t buying him.
Don’t get too excited about the state level results from Resolve. The sample size would be about 400 so that has a margin of error of 4.5%. NSW might be bigger and Queensland might be smaller.
The reality is polling rarely changes too much in Australian elections – unless you end up with a 2019-like failure – it pivots around a centre ground. It just takes a week or two to figure out what the centre ground it. Honestly, it just feels to me like the polling has just caught up with the vibe?
And no @HGL – the point isn’t the overall score it’s the efficiency of the vote. If this poll is the result, Labor returned with an increased majority is the most likely outcome – even if the Green count increases.
Bludgeoned Westie honestly I don’t even think it’s gonna close the gap so like you said Labor has to do something stupid but they ain’t like hell hell when he took his son out to the election campaign he can’t afford a house everyone looked to his dad said but you could help him you have the money like it was a f****** f******
It won’t happen, but just for a moment imagine Dutton loses Dickson.
Who is the putative alternative Liberal leader?
jt1983 I was just talking about you mate about how your friends are both camps were saying it was going to be a labor minority so what’s your opinion my opinion it’s going to be a labor majority and they probably get an extra couple of seats or they keep the same seats and the liberals lose more to the independence
Wat Tyler says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:45 pm
The Trump factor only kicked in after the ludicrous tariff announcements,
I beg to differ. Trump first raised serious consternation when he tried to mug Zelenskyy in the White House. He has pulled the rug on 80 years of defence/security understandings. This was a very profound and repeated betrayal. The tariff nonsense confirms that he is an idiot and adds economic mayhem to the demolition of our collective strategic security.
> I trust the good sense of Australian voters.
Hack you said the same about American voters and I ended up having to fake my own death and eat ramen in a shipping container for six months to escape gambling debts though of course these two things are not causally related.
sprocket_ @ #35 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:49 pm
While today’s events occurred after the polling period, I really doubt that the media event of Boofhead Junior trying to sell his dad’s message of “gosh, buying a house is so hard these days, isn’t it?” and then being repeatedly shot down by Boofhead Senior saying “No, I’m not giving him the Bank of Mum and Dad.” will sell well with young men.
Dutton could easily lose Dickson at this rate. If he’s re-elected to Parliament I doubt they’ll persist with him as leader if he goes backwards which is looking more likely than not atm. Would assume Angus Taylor would be frontrunner to takeover.
Sprocket
If the men of Australia have any brains they should realise that Trump’s US protectionist policies will see a lot of Australian men’s jobs lost here.
Steel, aluminium and various other exports – all will see jobs for blokes disappear with them if they are closed down or transferred to USA by tariffs.
@Quentin – I’ll put it this way, my Lib peeps are more despondent than the Labor luvvies are optimistic?
Everyone’s been through this before – nothing is being counted on.
My own view is a status-ish quo result is the most likely outcome at this stage. If you put the polling and betting markets (lol) to one side… it just doesn’t feel like the Libs have a handle on the conversation the electorate ACTUALLY wants to have.
All politicians are in bubbles – but it’s pretty obvious the LNP machine is in a thicker one and the messaging isn’t making much sense.
In 2019 – when I started getting nervous at about the 2 weeks out point, it was for two reasons, despite the polling saying otherwise.
1. Shorten was the leader everyone was talking about – mostly negatively.
2. Morrison was running an excellent campaign.
In this case, Dutton’s numbers are going backwards, this is not supposed to happen in a campaign. Labor is running a solid, relatively unexciting, but disciplined campaign – the Liberal campaign is honestly, one of the worst I’ve seen from a Federal party, and I include 2004 Labor in that.
Confessions @ #39 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:51 pm
Andrew Hastie, that’s assuming he himself can hold on in Canning.
If not, it’s pretty much a 2008 situation where someone like Brendan Nelson takes over for a few months until they get their gear in order.
Looking at the Resolve PPMs by State ( from totals of Albo 46, Dutton 30)
Albo up over Dutton
NSW +16
VIC +14
QLD +7
rest +29
Cat 635pm
I think a lot of Coalition people believe this – that they will sail into power in 2028 like Abbott in 2013.
Some problems with this are
– will they still be trying to sell their expensive Soviet State Nuclear plan?
– and if not, how will they still be trying to stop the transition to renewables (as any hint of believing in Climate Science is punishable by banishment in the Coalition!)
– being ‘Trumpian’ in 2028 May be even more on the nose than in 2025
– Labor will be more aware of the traps and pitfalls they face if they don’t quite get a majority
Bludgeoned Westie says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:43 pm
Why would the polls narrow as May 3 approaches. It is far more likely that as detached/unsure voters focus on the choices the factors that have encouraged other voters to firm for Labor will also cause them to trend to Labor as well.
Dutton is the least electable LOTO we have ever seen. His party is absolutely without talent, ideas or connection to the electorate. They should expect to lose in a walk-over.