The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll is little changed on last week, with Labor holding a steady two-party of 52-48, but is notable in having the Coalition primary vote at its lowest level since October 2023, following a one-point drop to 35%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 33% and 12%, with One Nation up a point to 8%. Exact numbers are not yet provided, but there has evidently been a substantial improvement on Anthony Albanese’s approval rating, a cited minus four net approval comparing with minus 11 last week (UPDATE: Up three on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 49%). Peter Dutton is down a point on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 56%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 48-40 to 49-38. Forced response questions find a 64-36 split in favour of Labor on expectations of who will form government, and 53-47 on who is preferred. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1271.
brucemainstream @ #29 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 7:56 pm
The tax-deductible interest payments for (insert all the caveats) is probably the Liberal’s best policy so far to gain positive attention. However, if the ALP finds they need to, it’s not hard to undermine. On the other hand the $1000 tax write off works better, it’s simple, benefits are clear, it’s actually a good policy, has a much broader set of beneficiaries and is difficult to critique.
I think what Dutton really needs is for Trump to lie low for the next few weeks. Not just because Dutton has nailed his colours to the MAGA mast, but the way Trump’s madness consumes the media bandwidth, leaving no scope to get a scare campaign rolling.
There are minority governments and then there are minority governments.
Say for example, if there is a health crossbench of say 10 or 12 and the government only needs 3, then it is unlikely there will need to be many deals and the parliament goes 3 years.
If the government needs 6 or 7, and the crossbench is 8 or 9 then things are a lot more difficult. In which case, I dare say the existing government would try to govern for as long as possible and then have to head to the polls once more.
Where is Redbridge?
Tbh the launch promises today have made the Newspoll today a bit of a non event. It’s nice to know that there’s no sign of the lead backsliding but a poll next week taken after people have absorbed the weekend news will be a bit more of an indicator to the final outcome.
Trump is pathologically incapable of laying low. His need for constant attention is extreme.
I’m happy with the Newspoll results, and with Labor’s campaigning this election. The PM has found his mojo again right when he needed to.
Will there be polling next weekend, this week being school holidays leading into easter and all…?
2019 gives all Labor people the heebie jeebies but it’s a different situation now – not least the advantage of incumbency, but also 2019 was notable because of the poor framing of key tax policies – eg, the franking credit changes – which could then be distorted and weaponized by the Lib-Nats.
From previous thread
”
B. S. Fairmansays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:10 pm
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
·
1m
#Newspoll 52-48 to ALP
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
·
45s
#Newspoll ALP 33 L-NP 35 Grn 12 ON 8 others 12
”
Not much different to 2022 election results. And based on 2022 preference flows, Newspoll says ALP majority government.
However, Newspoll 2PP says it 52-48, so the preference flows are certainly different when compared to 2022 results.
So ALP needs to get atleast a PV of 34% for 2025 election result to get majority.
Paul A
The AEC tallies the federal liberal party as a seperate political partys to Federal LNP in QLD, CLP , and national party
The best thing the Coalition first home buyer thing has going for it is that it is really easy for them and their media hangers on to make a lot more people think it is going to apply to them than will actually be the case through headlines that lack the detail. Yet another variation of buying votes without actually spending the money, the Coalition’s all time favourite strategy after scapegoating “others” for problems they’ve caused.
I still hold a wary eye over what One Nation’s up to, especially with all the public liaisons between Pauline and Big Gina, and the fact that they’re running candidates in almost every seat this time around.
They might even get more Senate seats if they’re getting 8% of the national vote, most likely at the expense of the LNP, but they would be there until 2031 if they’re successful.
Here is the Liberal problem with third parties.
Greens voters largely vote because the Greens have policies they like. If Greens don’t get up they strongly preference Labor because Labor is more likely to implement some of what they like than the Coalition.
PHON and strumpet voters are protest and grievance voters. They vote the way they do because they are unhappy with the government. If their primary candidate does not get up they will preference the major party they like the most, which can be anyone. This means that there is far greater spread between ALP and Coalition than from the Greens.
Leftie
You have really lost it if you think that I have ever been a member of the AMA
“Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:09 pm
No real swing in 3 years so labor won’t lose anything over 4% but gets a minority government.”
Are you really that dumb?
For those saying the pm has regained his mojo, one question
Have you ever watched Question Time?
The pm and his ministers do the LNP over every time
From memory, the Newspoll closest to twenty days before the 2019 election favoured Labor by 54 to 46 ahead of the Coalition.
Morrison finished strongly in that campaign, if Dutton could do the same, an upset could be on the cards.
A perfect storm may be building for the polls to be wrong again, and the betting markets have been too volatile with low volumes to draw a definite conclusion.
Punching down is weak
.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:20 pm
Leftie
You have really lost it if you think that I have ever been a member of the AMA
_______________
I think leftie is confusing you with Bruce Shepherd who led the Ostrogoths into Sydney back in 1984
This does not feel like 2019. Morrison was new in the job and the small majority voted and gave him the benefit of the doubt. Dutton is a known quantity. And the more people see of him, the less they like him.
With regards to the Redbridge poll. While talking about Newspoll on Sky News a set of figures was put up from Redbridge showing Coalition on 36 and Labor on 35 for primary vote.
It was quickly taken down.
The Revisionistsays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:25 pm
“Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:09 pm
No real swing in 3 years so labor won’t lose anything over 4% but gets a minority government.”
Are you really that dumb
———-
Okay what’s your problem?
Centresays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:25 pm
“From memory, the Newspoll closest to twenty days before the 2019 election favoured Labor by 54 to 46 ahead of the Coalition.”
Actually, it was 51-49 in Labor’s favour
(source: Wikipedia)
”
Stinkersays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:48 pm
C@tmomma at 7:44 pm
Does anyone know if, once Martial Law is declared an American can leave America of their own free will?
—————
Nope, the second martial law is declared every American citizen who isn’t a registered Republican will be designated as an enemy combatant and will be liable to losing all constitutional rights. So they won’t have the ability to leave the country of their own free will (they could be summarily deported once their citizenship is revoked though).
”
Unfortunately, Stinker could be correct.
“Greens voters largely vote because the Greens have policies they like. If Greens don’t get up they strongly preference Labor because Labor is more likely to implement some of what they like than the Coalition.”
Greens senate voters in the last election in NSW and Vic, on two thirds of occasions, voted Labor higher than what the Greens Political party directed them to with their HTV cards
I would highly recommend NOT asserting why you think Greens voters vote as they do unless you are deeply referencing actual empirical insights
My experience is that Greens voters largely care my about Labor winning the election than they do about Greens adding a couple more seats. They vote Greens because they think doing so has some effect on how progressive Labor gets with reforms.
Only the politically ignorant would purely on liking the pretend policy platform of a minor party more than they like the moderated, political capital conscious policy platform of a major party (i.e party of government that, if they win, will actually be accountable to implementing the policy
I don’t think this campaign is comparable to 2019. Dutton is proving an ineffective campaigner and it’s hard to run a scare campaign when you are the creepy looking opposition leader that is performing the backflips. The spectre of Trump will remain. It’s looking more likely to me that the LNP’s polling progressively gets worse in the final few weeks.
Arange @ 8.31 pm
Oh ok, happy to stand corrected.
‘DPRee says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:29 pm
This does not feel like 2019. Morrison was new in the job and the small majority voted and gave him the benefit of the doubt. Dutton is a known quantity. And the more people see of him, the less they like him.’
=========================
The collapse in Dutton’s personal ratings – both the extent of the collapse and the suddeness of the collapse – is, IMO, highly unusual.
It was not just Trump, IMO. It was the stories about his share trades, his 26 housing trades, his sudden visit on the money hunt while Alfred was approaching…
“Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:30 pm
The Revisionistsays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:25 pm
“Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:09 pm
No real swing in 3 years so labor won’t lose anything over 4% but gets a minority government.”
Are you really that dumb
———-
Okay what’s your problem?”
——-
How do you get Labor in default minority if there is a primary swing to it compared to last time where it……won majority government?
Probably best to compare the combined One Nation/ToP vote in 2025 with the combined One Nation/UAP vote from 2022 (which was around 9%) – one would expect preferences to flow pretty strongly within those pairs.
Sorry Oakey , how about the NSW salaried doctor’s union ?
I thought it was the honourable Brendan Nelson who cleaned the AMA up from a greedy doctor’s self interests lobby group into a broader org that moved to the welfare of the patient ?
Martial Law might be declared.
And then undeclared.
Then declared.
Then…
Dutton went back to Morrison with his fuel excise cut and now he’s going even further back with Howard’s “fist full of dollars”. For a someone that’s been freaking out at rising wages and spending contributing to inflation, his “fistful of dollars” is disgraceful hypocrisy.
His proposal to allow people to deduct interest payments up to $650,000 of their mortgage from their income taxes means that this is revenue forgone as is the fuel excise cut. Add the $600 billion dollar nuclear “plan” and the promise to match the ALP’s $10 billion injection into Medicare then the question must be asked; where is the money coming from?
He won’t get any savings from sacking 41,000 public servants because he’s walked back on that so it must be cuts to Health, Education, services, access to justice, NDIS, early childhood schooling, stopping free TAFE etc etc etc etc.
The 2019 campaign was awful, it made no sense that Labor’s vote held up in the polling albeit with a slightly detectable and worrying decline, and it actually made a lot of sense once we discovered the pollsters fucked it.
This time around it feels like Labor as incumbents should be ahead they are ahead, the polling movement actually reflects how the campaign is going, so while you can’t rule out polling errors (which is why we’re all nervy right until the results come in) there’s no particular reason for thinking there is one. 2019 did feel like there were plenty of reasons to assume an error.
And of course, there’s always the chance that all this worry about understating the Coalition is causing the polls to hedge so far they are underrating Labor and this is going to be a shellacking….
The Revisionistsays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:36 pm
“Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:30 pm
The Revisionist
Okay what’s your problem?”
——-
How do you get Labor in default minority if there is a primary swing to it compared to last time where it……won majority government
———-
Was going on the TPP but also basing it on first term governments normally lose seats.
Vensays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:19 pm
From previous thread
”
B. S. Fairmansays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:10 pm
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
·
1m
#Newspoll 52-48 to ALP
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
·
45s
#Newspoll ALP 33 L-NP 35 Grn 12 ON 8 others 12
”
Not much different to 2022 election results.
……………………………..
Ven,
Not much difference, is the understatement of the evening (coming from Kevin Bonham).
The ALP is up on the Primary by a phenomenal 0.44% since the last election. Mega increase.
According to some loonies on this site, the ALP is on track to increase their seat count from 78 seats to in excess of 100 on a massive rise of 0.44% on the primary vote.
This is the nonsense some posters here, have posted this weekend.
Take roughly 3% off the ALP primary (check Newspoll’s awesome history on bludgertrack), and we have the ALP primary sitting somewhere around the 30% mark.
Kavelas nearly peed her pants in excitment on hearing the Tory housing policy. It’s radical and a game changer apparently. They had another grey hared twat agreeing with her and nearly jumping out of his seat in excitment too. News Limited hack?
mj @ #38 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 8:02 pm
Thanks for that. 🙂
clem attlee @ #84 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 8:43 pm
James Massola, 9Fax.
From memory One Nation preferences flowed 65-35 LNP/ALP last election. It looks like there has been a very concerted effort from Pauline and Ashby to get that number up to Greens/ALP levels of 80 per cent. I’m not sure it will work given the type of voter, but it is noteworthy. They’re 100 per cent backing Dutton here. It’s a bit of a wild card coming into election day
Earlier on Sky News tonight a Redbridge poll from 4-9 April was shown, I believe by mistake. They were talking about Newspoll.
The numbers were
Labor 35
Coalition 36
Greens 12
Other. 17
That is the highest Labor vote for quite a while.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:40 pm
The Revisionistsays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:36 pm
“Mexicanbeemersays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:30 pm
The Revisionist
Okay what’s your problem?”
——-
How do you get Labor in default minority if there is a primary swing to it compared to last time where it……won majority government
———-
Was going on the TPP but also basing it on first term governments normally lose seats.
—————
Yeah if first term government usually lose a few seats it is because there is a swing against them
If anything, with no swing or even in the other direction, that will favour the incumbent as they will necessarily have more sophomore candidates
The Coalition could raise $600 billion in government bonds in two seconds and be sitting on an asset into the future. A far better investment than 280,000 km of wasted space of polls and wires on a failed intermittent energy scheme.
I hope voters open their eyes. The swinging voters who decide elections may well just do that.
*outski
Nah, Leftie
Nelson (and also Kerryn Phelps) was the creature of Bruce Shepherd, Chief of the Ostogoths.
But I have been a member of ASMOF when I was salaried.
Paul A as someone who has a lived experience in nonsense I’ll gladly accept your musing on all nonsense related topics
The problem with the Dutton mortgage tax deduction is the biggest barrier getting housing is saving for a deposit but, i guess 50k from your super will fix that
I see that the Independent candidate Kate Hulett is running in Fremantle too. That would probably make it a seat to keep an eye on, given how well she did at the state election.
brucemainstream @ #87 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 8:47 pm
Watch this spot for a big name former One Nation candidate to back Labor very soon.
Paul the A has spent the night on bludger doing a very unfunny impression of the Black Knight in Python’s Holy Grail.
I reckon Kevin Bonham made a canny remark a couple of month’s ago: to parse – usually the party of government has been able to claw back around 1% on both primaries and 2PP if things are close with 6 months to go (so looking back to October-December labor was at around 31%+ on primaries on both his aggregator and Bludger track, with the 2PP at around 50-50).
On the other hand Labor has actually consistory performed in elections of recent times when compared to polling (I reckon by about 1% on both measures).
This is the first election for 12 years that Labor goes into it as the incumbent. Perhaps both these factors will be in play, even though they point in the opposite directions. So, IMO if the polls are showing around 52/3 (2PP) in Labor’s favour AND their primary now at 32-33% then it would not surprise me if we actually end up on election day with Labor about 0.5% below what it achieved in 2022. … which brings me right back to the ‘punt’ I took at New Years’ – Labor to end up with 75 seats, and a cross bench of around 16. Not a majority. … but not minority government either 😉
ArchaeWAsays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:01 pm
Long time lurker and seldom poster from WA, regarding the primary votes etc.
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Agree the large improvement for Albo on preferred PM. Even though the TPP stayed the same as last weeks poll. Suggests more are thinking of swapping their vote to him. This is backed up by the fact that Labor scored 53:47 on preferred Government question. Even though they only scored 52:48 on voting intention.