The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll is little changed on last week, with Labor holding a steady two-party of 52-48, but is notable in having the Coalition primary vote at its lowest level since October 2023, following a one-point drop to 35%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 33% and 12%, with One Nation up a point to 8%. Exact numbers are not yet provided, but there has evidently been a substantial improvement on Anthony Albanese’s approval rating, a cited minus four net approval comparing with minus 11 last week (UPDATE: Up three on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 49%). Peter Dutton is down a point on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 56%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 48-40 to 49-38. Forced response questions find a 64-36 split in favour of Labor on expectations of who will form government, and 53-47 on who is preferred. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1271.
Team Katich:
47% approval. After all this. He is laughing. He was high30’s/low40’s in 2020 and still nearly won the election. He will make sure low 40’s is a winning hand next time.
His approval has dropped 3% per each month since February. Based on this poll anyway.
I assume “next time” will be Trump’s third term – presumably a coup d’etat of some sort. So approval ratings will not be as important.
Kirsdarke @ #695 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 5:43 pm
Nah, I was referring to a Wiggles-type video that started off like,
You mean this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKiHcplqOWM
(Lurker deciding to answer the call).
Leaders brush off warnings from economists that duelling housing policies will drive up prices in Australia
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/14/economists-criticise-labor-coalition-housing-policies-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-property-prices
“The policies, announced at the parties’ respective campaign launches on Sunday, were roundly criticised by leading economists, who warned while some prospective homeowners might benefit, the overall impact of stimulating demand would be higher house prices across the board.”
———————————————
Ross Gittins – This election is one of the worst I’ve seen
http://www.rossgittins.com/2025/04/this-election-is-one-of-worst-ive-seen.html
“What’s that? You don’t think much of the election campaign? It’s been neither interesting nor edifying, and hasn’t got to grips with the big issues?
Well, I agree. I think both sides are treating us like mugs. Maybe like the mugs many of us have allowed ourselves to become.
In my 51 years as a journalist, this is the 20th federal election campaign I’ve observed at close quarters, and I’m convinced they’re getting worse: more contrived, manipulative, transactional and misleading, and less focused on the various serious problems facing us, which are far greater than they used to be, and now include America’s abdication from leadership of the free world.
In short, election campaigns have become dishonest, aimed at tricking us into voting for one side rather than the other, using trinkets to distract us from the bigger issues that neither side has thought much about nor has any great desire to tackle.”
“Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham·1m
#Morgan continues doing what it has been doing lately. ALP 32 L-NP 33.5 Green 14.5 ON 6 IND 10* TOP 1 others 3
* generic ballot, likely overstated
2PP by respondent prefs 54.5 to ALP (+1)
last election prefs also 54.5 (=)”
—————————————-
Like Centre says, polls don’t matter 😀
The Australian electorates love affair with Trump style politics is … not so much.
unm….. Democracy Sausage
latest odds. Perhaps you might like to reflect on that prediction of goodenough winning
Moore (WA)
Settled on the winner of the seat of Moore at the next Federal Election. Will not count prior by-elections. All in betting. No Multis or Cashout. Result verification may be via AEC data or projected data, such as ABC News returns.
Coalition $1.52
Labor $2.95
Independent (Ian Goodenough) $8.50
Any Other Candidate $21
I think there’s a more-than-zero chance that Trump’s fitting up his Generalissimo uniform for that martial law announcement next week.
He probably won’t be that obvious, but this is a man that runs completely on Freudian id, it’d fill him with pleasure to be as outrageous as possible and yet his enemies are powerless to stop him. Typical abuser mentality.
DM @ #702 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 5:49 pm
Yes! That’s the one. Cheers for that.
@ C@tmomma
Brave browser by default blocks ads on youtube. It’s chrome based, and excellent imo.
sprocket_says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 5:41 pm
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,708 Australian electors from April 7-13, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 6% (up 1% point from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result produced is similar and unchanged from a week ago with the ALP on 54.5% (unchanged) leading the Coalition on 45.5% (unchanged).
=====================================================
So the main change was voter allocated preferences coming back to what they were in the 2022 elections. Good news for Labor if the preference flow is getting better for them.
Currently Xi and China are winning and Trump and US are losing with Trump Tariffs flip-flops
Xi has Trump in his sights with his metaphorical gun
Trump is looking like a deer caught in headlights of an on coming car driven by Xi.
Xi has Trump by his metaphorical balls and started squeezing them.
Xi is holding all his metaphorical cards and Trump is holding a weak card.
Team Katich, if you think Trump’s approval rating is relevant to future ‘elections’ in the US you’re more optimistic than me.
Kirsdarke
“I think there’s a more-than-zero chance that Trump’s fitting up his Generalissimo uniform for that martial law announcement next week.”
————————————–
AUKUS will get even easier to sell to voters after that.
Maybe we can convince Trump to go ahead with the Virginia SSN transfers if we agree to name the first one as HMAS Trump?
Spencesays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 5:01 pm
Such an own goal by Dutton bringing in 19 yo son and daughter to claim hardship re buying house. People in the pub will be chortling or getting a bit abusive.
_____________________
I reckon quiet Australians in the pub would like that he is an Apprentice carpenter.
Albo’s son doesn’t look the type that likes to get his hands dirty. A PWC internship would be more to his liking.
China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC) has decided to suspend poultry meat exports from certain U.S. companies, including Mountaire Farms of Delaware, Inc. and Coastal Processing, LLC, to China. The decision follows the detection of Salmonella in imported U.S. poultry meat and bone meal by Chinese customs authorities. The GAC stated that the suspension was also prompted by repeated findings of the prohibited drug Nitrofurazone in imported U.S. chicken products. This measure is intended to safeguard consumer health and safety.
https://www.poultrymed.com/Templates/showpage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=178&FID=9066&PID=0&IID=93204
”
teal wafflesays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 2:12 pm
Thomas says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 1:58 pm
Not sure what the Libs were thinking basing the cover of their parody rap on a Drake album. Given how Drake was comprehensively defeated by Kendrick Lamar in their feud.
—
They are trying to appeal to Indian and Middle Eastern voters in the outer suburbs who love Drake.
https://melmagazine.com/en-us/story/why-south-asian-men-are-so-obsessed-with-drake
”
I am man of South Asian origin and I don’t know who Drake and Lamar are and so called rapper mentioned in the article is. What is written in that article is whole lot of rubbish.
Labor’s primary has dropped by 0.5 in a week!!!
surely that is enough to tempt L’twit out from under his doona and back to the board with prognostications of Pasokification Now! … and another round of Peak Albo.
Where is Nadia to provide him with confirmation that it’s all baked in?
Holdenhillbillysays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:01 pm
China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC) has decided to suspend poultry meat exports from certain U.S. companies, including Mountaire Farms of Delaware, Inc. and Coastal Processing, LLC, to China. The decision follows the detection of Salmonella in imported U.S. poultry meat and bone meal by Chinese customs authorities. The GAC stated that the suspension was also prompted by repeated findings of the prohibited drug Nitrofurazone in imported U.S. chicken products. This measure is intended to safeguard consumer health and safety.
https://www.poultrymed.com/Templates/showpage.asp?DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=178&FID=9066&PID=0&IID=93204
===================================================
USA exports chicken meat?
I thought a large percentage of their chickens had avian flu?
Hence the astronomical prices for eggs under Trump.
Taylormadesays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 5:58 pm
Spencesays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 5:01 pm
Such an own goal by Dutton bringing in 19 yo son and daughter to claim hardship re buying house. People in the pub will be chortling or getting a bit abusive.
_____________________
I reckon quiet Australians in the pub would like that he is an Apprentice carpenter.
Albo’s son doesn’t look the type that likes to get his hands dirty. He is more the PWC internship type
————-
It’s the PWC types Dutton is struggling to win over and has to get back to win the teal seats.
Resolve just dropped – 53.5% 2PP Labor’s way.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/trump-backlash-shifts-voters-from-dutton-to-albanese-poll-20250414-p5lrls.html
Thomas @ #719 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:05 pm
Whoa, that’s a big swing. Especially coming from Resolve.
Resolve Poll – the Liberal idiots won’t be happy.
TM. No one saying Dutton kids aren’t doing ok with their jobs. Sounds like they are. It is the silliness of bringing them in as hard up struggling would be house buyers that sticks in the craw.
Happy to see another poll with the major parties combined under 2/3rds
Plus of course the Greens in the teens
Polls should get more interesting from here with the major party launches done and all the policies on the table + polling companies, well those who do, being able to read out who is actually standing in a seat when they “call”
#25in25
Edit. I mean Morgan
Ryan
Having now had an opportunity to look at this issue, I fully support the AEC’s position statement from last Friday that influencer content paid for by politicians should be clearly labelled as such.”
_____________________
It’s not that bloody hard.
I knew that but a Teal MP didn’t.
Resolve poll incoming
C@tmomma says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 4:47 pm
Thank goodness for YouTube Premium. No ads.
You’ve fall for the Google trap..
Vimeo much better experience.. yes less content
Voters have lifted Labor to a powerful pre-election lead of 53.5 per cent in two-party terms amid signs that some have turned away from the Coalition out of concern at the impact of US President Donald Trump on Australia.
The exclusive findings show that 35 per cent of undecided voters say they are less likely to back Opposition Leader Peter Dutton because of changes wrought by Trump, while only 24 per cent say the same of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
The shift has cut support for the Coalition to just 46.5 per cent in two-party terms – down from 50 per cent less than one month ago – and suggests that Labor is within sight of holding majority government.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/trump-backlash-shifts-voters-from-dutton-to-albanese-poll-20250414-p5lrls.html
Kirsdarkesays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:08 pm
Thomas @ #719 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:05 pm
Resolve just dropped – 53.5% 2PP Labor’s way.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/trump-backlash-shifts-voters-from-dutton-to-albanese-poll-20250414-p5lrls.html
Whoa, that’s a big swing. Especially coming from Resolve.
======================================================
Certainly is, it was 50:50 last time and 45:55 LNP the time before. It and Freshwater were last bit of copium the LNP supporters had on here.
Actually thinking about the Dutton housing problems. They have a few choices. Kids could join the parents at Kirribilli – and rent/negative gear the home in Brisbane. Or maybe Peter could loosen up a bit and let the kids use the Brisbane house.
Resolve just dropped – 53.5% 2PP Labor’s way. .. tis but a scratch….
https://youtu.be/ZmInkxbvlCs
Labor 105 seats
The federal lib/nats will be sweating on lib/nats leaning opinion poll freshwater poll, if that turns against them .
Reason why Angus Taylor and Sussan Ley aren’t bothering campaigning , its a lost cause
Team Katich @ #683 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 5:35 pm
If you watched the video I put up about the latest polling you would have heard that right now people aren’t feeling the effects of Trump’s policies viscerally but are only seeing headlines about the stock market. Also, plenty of people still have faith that Trump has a plan that needs time to work. So they aren’t too worried about the loss in value of their 401K plans. For the moment. However, what happens next, after the 90 day pause in tariffs is over, and/or when the effect of those tariffs starts being noticed at Walmart, and the $10 t-shirt becomes a $20 dollar t-shirt, after the stock inventories which have been accumulated finally run out, that is when Trump’s Approval ratings, if he hasn’t come up with another ‘genius’ move by then, will start falling through the floor. Just like Joe Biden’s did when he couldn’t get inflation under control quickly enough for the great unwashed.
Resolve Poll:
LNP: 34% (-3)
ALP: 31% (+2)
GRN: 13% (0)
ON: 6% (-1)
IND: 12% (+3)
OTH: 5% (0)
Preferred PM:
Albanese: 46% (+4)
Dutton: 30% (-3)
Resolve Poll Labor 53.5% 2PP: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/trump-backlash-shifts-voters-from-dutton-to-albanese-poll-20250414-p5lrls.html
Dutton may have been taking Gina’s advice on money and adult children
Entropy @ #728 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 5:44 pm
I remember that 45-55 poll. The RWers on here had decided the election was over based on that poll that most cool heads suggested that, until replicated, was most likely an outlier. There was a lot of drape-measuring that day.
For the record, despite recent polling I still see no reason to shift from my New Year’s ‘punt’ that Labor will end up on 75 seats, with a primary and 2PP vote both being a shade behind their 2022 election results. … 😉
nadia88 and Lars Von Trier, the Sub _._ twins, where are you?
Entropy man I wonder how the campaign launch is going to do for the liberals I wonder how they’re feeling I know people don’t trust the poles but I was Liberal up probably be pissed at Trump and pissed up Peter for pretending to be like Trump
I wouldn’t have an issue with means-tested copayments if it was entirely frictionless at the point of service delivery, but rather is collected by the ATO on peoples’ tax returns.
This does several things:
* the ATO can obviously automatically apply means testing – you don’t need to have special categories or documentation with your medicare card
* I just do not want to be waving a credit card around for scrappy bits of money as part of dealing with medical services
* The experience of getting treatment is basically the same for everyone – many will end up paying more through their tax return, and of course this would be made clear up front, but the basic experience of being treated wouldn’t have payment issues being front and centre
I think it depends on if you see the point of copayments to be part of funding for medicare, or alternatively to be a (however modest) deterrent to getting treatment at all. I would think any valid arguments should be in the former camp, but the impression I have always gotten from the various proposals from Abbott, Dutton et al, is that they see a rich vein of people casually visiting GPs or whatever for shits and giggles that they can head off with a copayment, whereas I don’t think this was ever really a thing.
Resolve state primaries
NSW
ALP 31
LNP 34
GRN 12
VIC
ALP 29
LNP 35
GRN 13
QLD
ALP 30
LNP 38
GRN 13
In 61 seats there is no independent candidate. So where does that 10% of people voting independent go in those seats?
Wat Tyler yep I remember people were saying hey this could be an outlier s*** I remember saying the same thing about the Roy Morgan being 55 to 45 to labour apparently they’re picking up on the trend
Resolve: 30% uncommitted. Greens vote holding up. Two thirds voting 1 for the duopoly.
I wonder if Dutton’s wish to live at Kirribilli is driven by a distaste of Canberra being full of “woke” lefty public servants. He should also think about cancelling any orders for new curtains for Kirribilli if he has already made them.
All we need now is the Guardian pollster to say – all good, just deduct 3 or 4 % from Labor and you have the answer.
Of course 53.5% 2PP would be Labor’s best result since the immediate aftermath of WW2, let alone 54.5. I’m not expecting anything like that and as far as I can tell, it’s not the vibe. Maybe a solid status quo result is on the cards.
Spence
“Actually thinking about the Dutton housing problems. They have a few choices. Kids could join the parents at Kirribilli – and rent/negative gear the home in Brisbane. Or maybe Peter could loosen up a bit and let the kids use the Brisbane house.”
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Joe Hockey would advise them to move to new parents with higher paid jobs.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:03 pm
Labor’s primary has dropped by 0.5 in a week!!!
surely that is enough to tempt L’twit out from under his doona
===================================================
It may have but something has just turned up to ruin that resolve.