The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll is little changed on last week, with Labor holding a steady two-party of 52-48, but is notable in having the Coalition primary vote at its lowest level since October 2023, following a one-point drop to 35%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 33% and 12%, with One Nation up a point to 8%. Exact numbers are not yet provided, but there has evidently been a substantial improvement on Anthony Albanese’s approval rating, a cited minus four net approval comparing with minus 11 last week (UPDATE: Up three on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 49%). Peter Dutton is down a point on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 56%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 48-40 to 49-38. Forced response questions find a 64-36 split in favour of Labor on expectations of who will form government, and 53-47 on who is preferred. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1271.
And in case we wonder whether Duttonson’s media interview was planned or not, recall that LNP candidates are pulling out of community soapbox events and LNP shadows are declining to comment on issues within their ambit of responsibility.
The remarkable thing about the LNP campaign schemozzle is how tightly it is controlled. Dutton did this on purpose!
I can hardly wait until tomorrow to see what comes next.
Depends on the TV. If you have an LG TV you can do a bit of hacky back end dev stuff to install a third party add-on with adblocking for youtube. An Android based TV may be able to use https://smarttubeapp.github.io/.
On a chrome desktop you can use ublock origin to block ads, and sponsorblock to block ads & annoyances within the content itself.
bob @ #642 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 4:46 pm
Thing is I am not sure how the Liberals policies would actually help. The guy is saving for a deposit, so, I guess he can use $50k of his super, but at 19 and apprentice would be lucky to have $5000 so that’s not a win. Without any deposit he is into going to get access to the deductable loans and the loosening up of affordability won’t help either as there is no deposit.
imaXXXXXandivote
Fair call but it’s the only data I’ve got to work with. If anyone could dig up historical poll data pre 2010 that would be great.
As you mentioned, having only a sample of 5 elections is not great. But the results show that using this formula is a better predictor of LNP 2PP performance over the last 3 weeks of the campaign than just taking a straight average of the LNP 2PP performance.
For those that are interested in this, if I use this model then the average error (Mean Absolute Error: MAE) of the model predicting LNP 2PP over the last 3 weeks is 0.86%. This means that on average the model’s predicting error was +/- 0.43%.
In contrast, if you just used the average of LNP 2PP to predict their last 3 week performance, then the MAE is 1.19% (error +/-0.595%).
I suppose I could try State polling and election data. But I don’t know how readily available historical state polling data is and if there would be a NetSat – 2PP relationship at the state level that would effectively transfer to the Federal sphere.
The other idea I had was to use projections from the trends for NetSat and 2PP ratings, analysing these from 3, 2 and 1 week out from polling day to see if there is a stronger relationship there.
Maybe Kevin Bonham has a view on all of this.
Dandy Murray
That’s correct. According to the strictures of ANOVA, this doesn’t pass the significance test if you set it at 0.95.
I guess what I was trying to say was that the regression line gives us a better way to predict the LNP 2PP change than just the straight average (see above).
Minority LNP government
$4.50 Sportsbet
$5.00 Tab
Minority Labor government
$2.20 Sportsbet
$2.00 Tab
Such an own goal by Dutton bringing in 19 yo son and daughter to claim hardship re buying house. People in the pub will be chortling or getting a bit abusive.
bob @ #650 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 4:55 pm
Interesting, I’ll have a look into that. Thanks.
However, it is somewhat concerning that I only seem to be getting pro-Liberal and anti-Labor ads all the same. They really are throwing everything into internet ads and such to try and win this.
Someone who is benefiting from the election is the liberal’s ad company, just saw the ‘bar’ add and so cheap and poorly made. No doubt they got charged the full whack and got something that could have been done better by a bunch of media students for a Gruen challenge. The repeating albo vid on the TV and the way the cheap CGI made it flicker and superimpose some of the guys hair on it.
Kirsdarke @ #645 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 4:49 pm
His kids are going to get the money when he passes away anyway, so why be a scrooge with it now?
Or are they? 😉
Spence @ #656 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 5:01 pm
The reaction would either be be what a ‘tight ass bastard’, or a bit of ‘too right, i got no hand outs and had to work hard so he should too’
The one thing, showing no help for family when you got the means will really go down so well with those well established migrant communities where looking after family and community is number 1.
Lots and lots of Trump polling numbers from the latest CBS Newspoll:
https://youtu.be/xcdBaILKzmo?si=iq3R7N3Yb7ixBKw0
April 14
The launches have sunk into a policy mire squabble. Bluey reckons they will make bugger all difference.
Bluey notices that the MSM appears to be sniffing the wind and have become a bit more even handed as the Dutton Disaster rolls right along.
The Liberals will not be getting a launch bounce or reset or anything like that. Neither will Labor.
Back to the nozzle schemozzle for Petrol Pete!
Blue reckons that Benson Saulo is yet another Liberal campaign cock up. It reads like a Marx Bros skit. He would refuse to be a member of the only Party which would not have him – Labor. He is on his fourth Party so he is agile. He started with the Greens, saw the Light, and moved right along to the Liberals and saw the Dark.
Bluey reckons that Dutton’s setting up the 19 year old son to whine about not being able to buy a house already when the campaign began with questions about your 26 property dealings is just bloody dopey.
And THEN Bluey was flabbergasted at Dutton not being 100% ready for the absolutely 100% predictable follow question about the Bank of Mum & Dad.
Minus 1 for the Liberals.
Zero for everyone else.
Cumulative score
Labor plus 0 for a total of 9
Liberals minus 1 for a total of minus 8
Greens minus 1 for a total of minus 2.
PHON 0 for a total of 5
Indies 0 for a total of 2
Nationals 0 for a total of 4
ToP 0 for a total of minus 2.
Rolling prognosis: Labor minority government
The Daily Rupert reviews the diss rap…
Federal Election55 minutes ago
DJ Albo dumps the dissing after Libs unleash cringey rap track
You know the election campaign is off the rails when Peter Dutton’s crew think they’re rap gods. Listen to their song here – as DJ Albo makes his own diss track pledge. LIVE UPDATES
Re ad blocking, what you actually need is a $30 Raspberry Pi plugged into your router configured as the DNS provider, with PiHole running on it:
https://pi-hole.net/
Vastly more effective than any browser plugin – I haven’t seen an ad on the internet for years.
C@tmomma @ #659 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 5:09 pm
I reckon Dutton is they type who will get it converted to travellers cheques so he can take it will him
C@tmomma, ugh, why must it be a video… what’s the gist of it?
When a major candidate for the Prime Ministership gets his children to have speaking roles in his campaign, it’s a sign of desperation from the Liberal camp.
There’s no way Nathan Albanese will be doing speaking ads for his Dad or going on the stump with Dad.
To answer my own question:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-tariffs-13-04-2025/
Amazing that the majority of Yanks say they effectively believe Trump is lying about imposing tariffs (i.e. they think he’s bluffing).
Some pretty ugly trends in there for Trump considering how brainwashed the electorate in the US is.
Asked a second time directly why he would not help his son buy a home, Dutton refused to engage with the question.
“I haven’t finished the excellent points I was making,” he said.
__________________________________
Please clap?
Scan here for polling numbers and trends, but do not post until now.
Referred to a Complex Back Surgeon 6 months ago who sent me off for MRI – advising that he could write the referral for a place which bulk billed if I wanted – which I did.
The service where he consults did not bulk bill.
The jabs into my back (3 so far across the 6 months) were attended at the same bulk billing site at no cost to me.
The Surgeon consultation was $300- and got $180- back the same day.
Bloody brilliant – and the latest jab is working (touch wood)
I ventured to the local library today and read the Murdoch rags.
The Daily Tele was predictably all the way with Dutts.
The Australian on the other hand, much more nuanced, Paul Kelly was pissed off with both Labor and the Coalition, he argued that the budget was being pushed into deficit either way and he decried what he derisively calls “cash splashes”.
And Saul Estlake called the Coalition housing policy the worst he’s ever seen in his time as an economist.
Simon Benson seems resigned to a Labor minority government after May 3.
Another seat to watch is Moore, it looks like the former Liberal MP now running as an Independent will probably win, with Labor preferences.
It is all just a bit much from the guy who boasted about getting His first house at 19 with help from His dad.
Spence says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 5:01 pm
Such an own goal by Dutton bringing in 19 yo son and daughter to claim hardship re buying house. People in the pub will be chortling or getting a bit abusive.
_______________________________________
Maybe the younger Duttons could afford a property if it wasn’t for the prices being pushed up by greedy property investors like … er … his mum and dad.
Kirsdarkesays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 3:35 pm
“Speaking of Canada, from the CBC Poll Tracker it’s starting to look like polls have about levelled off for now, with the Liberals in the mid-40% range and the Conservatives in the high-30% range.”
Kirsdarkesays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 6:25 pm
“Meanwhile in my crystal ball I see the cargo bay of a plane full of pianos suffering a critical failure over Pierre Pollievre’s Conservative Party campaign launch, taking out dozens of senior members and candidates where it would be too late to put up new ones.”
Wonder what changed in the last 10 days?
Patrick Bateman @ #666 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 5:15 pm
tl:dr Trump tanking on economy handling metrics but Approval holding up in general due to support for his immigration activities.
Now that Dutton has brought his family into it, in the hype video leading up to Dutton’s campaign launch yesterday, he talked about his daughter.
And said words to the effect that she was working hard as a childcare worker, and would not be able to save up a deposit for a house in 10 years.
I think I posted ‘Tightwad parents” or similar at the time. But it also struck me that Ms Dutton may be working in one of the string of childcare centres the Duttons own.
Robert Francis @ #670 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 5:21 pm
Exactly. And this accretion towards charging people for technology-based interventions would continue under a Coalition government.
Fyi, I also have a fracture in my L5/S1 spine which I get corticosteroid injections for. They are a godsend.
Where are the builders going to come from? / Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, AI
“The Labor Party’s plan to build 100,000 new homes in 10 years has had some wondering if we have the capacity – after all where are the builders to do all that work?
Well one place to look is new coal and gas mines. The government keeps approving new (sorry extensions) gas and coal mines and that takes construction workers away from the building homes and commercial buildings.
In the last financial year as much was spent constructing new mines than was on new apartments and flats.
This is a poor use of our resources. Not only is it taking workers away from the residential construction sector and thus causing supply constraints and increasing the cost of building new homes, but coal and gas contribute to climate change.
So we’re heating up the planet and the housing market. Dumb, both ways.”
sprocket_ @ #676 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 5:29 pm
Of course she is. And Dutton Jr. is probably working for grandad’s building company.
Trump Job approval rating:
Approve 45.7%
Disapprove 50.8%
Elon Favorability:
Approve 39.6%
Disapprove 53.5%
(source: the Silver Bulletin)
And then there is the Dutton Family Trust – the RHT Trust.
RHT being the first initials of his 3 kids – poor darlings trying to scrape together a deposit might check out the family trust provisions…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-says-his-trust-fund-has-nothing-in-it-any-more-20250226-p5lf7i.html
Fact check: Housing affordability / , Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist
“One of biggest issues at this election is housing affordability. When it comes to housing affordability, both major parties have been guilty of juicing demand for housing with past policies. This started all the way back in the year 2000 with first homeowner’s grants. Study after study has shown that giving one group of home buyers more money or access to more borrowing just pushes up house prices.
Policies that both major parties have that is this category include:
Access to super for first home buyers (LNP)
5% deposit without mortgage insurance for first home buyers (ALP)
Tax deductibility for interest payments for first home buyers buying new homes (LNP)
Govt taking up to a 40% equity stake in buying a home (ALP)
Lowering borrowing standards to make it easier to get a larger mortgage (LNP)
These make for nice announceables but they will drive up house prices and make housing less affordable.”
https://live.australiainstitute.org.au/2025/04/australia-institute-live-day-17-of-the-2025-election-campaign/page/2/#d4daabc756
Patrick Bateman @ #668 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 4:48 pm
47% approval. After all this. He is laughing. He was high30’s/low40’s in 2020 and still nearly won the election. He will make sure low 40’s is a winning hand next time.
Must be almost time for Roy Morgan.
Arange @ #674 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 5:25 pm
That earlier post was sarcasm.
Arangesays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 5:25 pm
Kirsdarkesays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 3:35 pm
“Speaking of Canada, from the CBC Poll Tracker it’s starting to look like polls have about levelled off for now, with the Liberals in the mid-40% range and the Conservatives in the high-30% range.”
Kirsdarkesays:
Friday, April 4, 2025 at 6:25 pm
“Meanwhile in my crystal ball I see the cargo bay of a plane full of pianos suffering a critical failure over Pierre Pollievre’s Conservative Party campaign launch, taking out dozens of senior members and candidates where it would be too late to put up new ones.”
Wonder what changed in the last 10 days?
=====================================================
What do you believe is the potential top for the Canadian Liberals?
I would say they have pretty much reached it. So basically topped out.
Housing cash splash – two out of three ain’t good enough \ (The Australia Institute View)
https://live.australiainstitute.org.au/2025/04/australia-institute-live-day-17-of-the-2025-election-campaign/page/3/#21037102d8
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 54.5% (up 1% point from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 45.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
In a good sign for the Albanese Government, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 5 points to 86 – its highest for over 18 months since September 2023. Now 34.5% (up 1.5%) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 48.5% (down 4.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.
This week primary support for the two major parties was little changed with the Coalition up 0.5% to 33.5% and the ALP down 0.5% to 32%. Importantly for the Government, support for the Greens increased 1% to 14.5% (the Greens highest support for over six months).
Support for One Nation was unchanged at 6%, Other Parties dropped 2% to 4% (Note: Clive Palmer’s new Trump of Patriots party received 1% support, down 0.5% from a week ago), while support for Independents increased 1% to 10%.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9866-federal-voting-intention-april-14-2025
Roy Morgan, come on down!
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 54.5% (up 1% point from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 45.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
In a good sign for the Albanese Government, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 5 points to 86 – its highest for over 18 months since September 2023. Now 34.5% (up 1.5%) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 48.5% (down 4.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.
This week primary support for the two major parties was little changed with the Coalition up 0.5% to 33.5% and the ALP down 0.5% to 32%. Importantly for the Government, support for the Greens increased 1% to 14.5% (the Greens highest support for over six months).
Support for One Nation was unchanged at 6%, Other Parties dropped 2% to 4% (Note: Clive Palmer’s new Trump of Patriots party received 1% support, down 0.5% from a week ago), while support for Independents increased 1% to 10%.
Kirsdarke from earlier
You weren’t thinking of this song from the 2010 campaign were you? https://youtu.be/n9fs_6v20Cw?si=6tKIt4tlXDFQN7wU
@Entropy at 5:36pm
It probably has plateaued for the Canadian Liberals, and the Conservatives don’t seem to be moving on their numbers either. Nor does the NDP or BQ.
But a significant narrowing needed for the Conservatives to win from here doesn’t seem to be happening at the moment.
Democracy sausage
I would certainly much prefer a Labor win in Moore but Goodenough beating the question time clown Connolly would be nearly acceptable,
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,708 Australian electors from April 7-13, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 6% (up 1% point from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result produced is similar and unchanged from a week ago with the ALP on 54.5% (unchanged) leading the Coalition on 45.5% (unchanged).
whooshka sprocket_ !
We need cost-of-living relief but we need it through reform not costly “bandaids” or “sugar hits”
Where is the longer-term thinking Australians desperately want from their leaders?
And what price will we end up paying for this?
https://bsky.app/profile/davidpocock.bsky.social/post/3lmqhuweg622y
____________________
They’re fake leaders.
Spence
“Such an own goal by Dutton bringing in 19 yo son and daughter to claim hardship re buying house. People in the pub will be chortling or getting a bit abusive.”
—————————————————
I hope they took the time to confirm he’s not a monster? It might help.
(They might have also asked their Dad who helped him with a deposit so that as a 19 year old Uni dropout he could buy a house in 1989?)
Matt31 @ #690 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 5:39 pm
Nah, I was referring to a Wiggles-type video that started off like,
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The first two weeks of the Federal Election campaign have favoured the Albanese Government which strengthened its two-party preferred lead for a second consecutive week: ALP 54.5% (up 1%) cf. L-NP Coalition 45.5% (down 1%).
“President Donald Trump’s worldwide tariffs caused extreme market upheaval throughout last week. The ASX200 plunged early in the week before recovering most of its losses by the end of the week, and the Australian Dollar was on a roller-coaster ride.
“In times of uncertainty we usually see voters swing towards incumbent governments – and this reaction has been seen in recent weeks with increasing support for the Albanese Government – at least at a two-party preferred level.
“In primary vote terms the Greens are the standout this week with support at 14.5% – a six month high, while Clive Palmer’s ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ Party has yet to gain traction and slipped back 0.5% to only 1% support – despite spending millions on every type of advertising.”
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9866-federal-voting-intention-april-14-2025
Was it Bob Hawke’s daughter who gained some notoriety for sunbaking at Kirribilli?
I think Duttonsdottir will open a Kirribilli branch of the childcare empire.
Entropysays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 5:36 pm
‘What do you believe is the potential top for the Canadian Liberals?
I would say they have pretty much reached it. So basically topped out.”
Could change with a major short-term news event, but generally what they’re at now is about the highest they can go in the polls. The highest they can get at the actual election is likely something like half a percent short of the Conservatives.