The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll is little changed on last week, with Labor holding a steady two-party of 52-48, but is notable in having the Coalition primary vote at its lowest level since October 2023, following a one-point drop to 35%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 33% and 12%, with One Nation up a point to 8%. Exact numbers are not yet provided, but there has evidently been a substantial improvement on Anthony Albanese’s approval rating, a cited minus four net approval comparing with minus 11 last week (UPDATE: Up three on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 49%). Peter Dutton is down a point on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 56%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 48-40 to 49-38. Forced response questions find a 64-36 split in favour of Labor on expectations of who will form government, and 53-47 on who is preferred. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1271.
A tooth ache will drive you crazy.
Put it into Medicare
I get whiplash with these thread changes, some of my best material gets left behind.
From the previous thread.
Evening all,
Some observations regarding America
A friend of mine is about to head to Europe for a medical conference and is also studying for their PhD. One of their supervisors is from a mid-sized university in the USA and is fearful for their future (and the university) as there is funding being slashed left, right and centre. This supervisor who is left-leaning is also worried about whether they would be allowed BACK into the States and if they would be interrogated and arrested by ICE. The supervisor has noted that consumer spending is down and there is a general feeling of fear and uncertainty amongst neighbours in her town.
Of more concern is that there is a real fear that Trusk (Trump) will enact martial law on or around April 2o which marks the birthday of a certain former dictator.
Her views is that America is pretty much f****d and that many of her colleagues are now seeking opportunities in Europe and elsewhere to continue their research and study.
Secondly there have been a number of articles in The Age / SMH regarding travel to the USA including some harrowing reports of Australians being detained on various trumped up charges in regards to their visas. The overwhelming consensus is if you DON’T need to travel to the US then don’t go.
Furthermore, another friend who works for QANTAS has noted that bookings on international flights to the States from Australia and elsewhere have plummeted dramatically in recent weeks and that QANTAS are running the numbers to determine whether they need to adjust their schedules.
52-48. Is that it.
I was expecting 60-40 the way people have been carrying on.
Then Sceptic predicting 120 seats earlier today.
Taylormade says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:38 pm
52-48. Is that it.
I was expecting 60-40 the way people have been carrying on.
Then Sceptic predicting 120 seats earlier today.
I have 20 odd days to go…. with the vibe
Taylormade
Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 7:38 pm
Comment #4
52-48. Is that it.
You’d be jumping for joy if that was the Coalition’s numbers, admit it.
Taylor – I for one was expecting a little more movement. Nowhere near 60-40, but some movement, simply based of the way the two campaign were reacting during the week. There were moments when Dutton almost looked despondent. This suggested that their internals were turning sour. So I am marginally surprised by the result.
“if you DON’T need to travel to the US then don’t go.”
definitely. Especially if you’re not lily white.
Does anyone know if, once Martial Law is declared an American can leave America of their own free will?
pithicus @ #8 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 7:44 pm
Even if you are you better not have anything negative about Mad King Don on your phone in your social media apps.
At the end of the day, there is no real swing to Albo.
If this poll holds up as true, then it means there has been an “earth changing” o.44% primary vote swing to the ALP since the last election.
At least Boerwar was honest enough to admit on the former thread, that this is looking like a minority ALP gov’t…at most. Could possibly be a minority LNP gov’t if the Pauline vote and the Trumpet vote flows highly back to the Libs.
The ALP is not gaining votes off the LNP. The LNP vote is simply going back to the right fringe.
As for the nonsense posted this weekend – ALP on track to get 100+ seats. FFS
Where the fuck is the ALP gaining 22+ seats on a primary of 33%. FFS
We’re still pretty polarised and 52/53 can be a near landslide in the Australian context lol
I’m obviously not predicting this!
Polls in campaigns rarely get into outlier territory.
The key thing to me is Dutton’s increased electoral toxicity.
Labor minority to status quo is the most likely outcome. Nothing has changed.
ANC News – Greg jennett, wondering if the Liberal/coalition tax policies will restore momentum to Dutton’s campaign.
As his only momentum to date has been down hill, I am looking forward to a restoration of solid down hill momentum.
C@tmomma at 7:44 pm
Does anyone know if, once Martial Law is declared an American can leave America of their own free will?
—————
Nope, the second martial law is declared every American citizen who isn’t a registered Republican will be designated as an enemy combatant and will be liable to losing all constitutional rights. So they won’t have the ability to leave the country of their own free will (they could be summarily deported once their citizenship is revoked though).
Nath
Although I rarely respond, I made an exception for Scromoll’s accusation of “racism in the extreme”. Irony but no offence was intended.
Speaking of Crazy People, Mrs OC and I were just watching the story on reduced tariffs for iphones and she said, “it’s because the Japanese are short sighted, ha ha”. I think a further viewing of Crazy People is required in view of these differing memories.
From how Dutton has fared in this campaign seems pretty clear to me that Abbott would have never become PM if Bil Shorten hadn’t had knifed Kevin Rudd because Palmer and Rheinhart told him too because they didn’t like Rudd raising their taxes.
‘Steven says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:35 pm
Evening all,
Some observations regarding America…’
===================
It is not just the substance. It is the sheer unpredictability. An associate works for a large multinational which does business in numerous countries. On an almost daily basis they are getting a call from their in country people in one country or another that goes something like: ‘Such and such a project has been cancelled’. These are multi-million dollar thingies stopped in mid-stride. Then sometimes they get another call. Oh. We made a mistake. It has not been cancelled after all. Decisions to invest in anything new are at an almost complete halt.
The vote is going to others and to labor via preferences which means a swing to libs will be enhanced .
Wait a few days for a reaction for this weekends events.
77 million who voted for trump would be happy!
Stinker:
For almost a decade I was a partner in a greater western Sydney Employment brokerage service that facilitated the procurement of labour needs for various contractors big and small involved in the development of the Nancy bird international airport at badgerys creek.
I personally developed inclusive participation guidelines and best practice policies for several civil construction firms including multi nationals in this time.
We placed probably over 200 NDIS participants into suitable and ongoing employment for this project. I was also on an industry working group that recommended the implementation of the NDIS employment and skills development program that allowed for core funding to be used directly for employment including of the paying of the participant’s wages while working at full award rates.
I made a silly reference to the NDIS. Tell me stinker of your contributions to the NDIS?
B. S. Fairman @ #7 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 7:43 pm
Don’t people say that polls are a lagging indicator?
Cheers OC. All good.
the Sony Ad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96iJsdGkl44
Watch out Oakey!
A few pber’s will be on the phone tomorrow to both the AMA and the NDIS complaints commission to have us canceled !
Stinker @ #14 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 7:48 pm
Eek! 😯
Technically it won’t be Material Law, it will invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807 to deal with national emergency related to the southern border. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807
Supreme Court might supress the use of it.
I see there’s some delusional people who think that the one nation vote can save the liberals they need to get seats in areas where it’s multicultural anyway Anthony’s personal rating keeps going up well Peters keeps going down something must be happening I just don’t know what it is
paul A says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:46 pm
At the end of the day, there is no real swing to Albo.
If this poll holds up as true, then it means there has been an “earth changing” o.44% primary vote swing to the ALP since the last election.
At least Boerwar was honest enough to admit on the former thread, that this is looking like a minority ALP gov’t…at most. Could possibly be a minority LNP gov’t if the Pauline vote and the Trumpet vote flows highly back to the Libs.
The ALP is not gaining votes off the LNP. The LNP vote is simply going back to the right fringe.
As for the nonsense posted this weekend – ALP on track to get 100+ seats. FFS
Where the fuck is the ALP gaining 22+ seats on a primary of 33%. FFS’
==============================
I was predicting a Labor minority government but beginning to think I may have been wrong these past three years and we might get a Labor majority government after all.
I was also wondering whether anyone was running a book on who will replace Dutton.
My suggestion is Double ESSIE. She has it all. Brains. Gravitas. Style. Plus she is the right gender for a Liberal leader.
mj was right to point out that today’s Liberal launch was flat. There was nary a cheer from beginning to end. Trotting out Abbott and Morrison was yet another tactical error by a campaign team that has not missed an opportunity to screw it up.
Even MAGAPrice sucking up today’s oxygen.
What WERE they thinking?
A swing to others only leads to preference leakage to Labor if there is no net gain among the broader right.
Speaking of ads.
Poorly aged 80s ads. Quite an eye opener:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhmsXl51EDU
leftieBrawler 7:51 pm
I made a silly reference to the NDIS. Tell me stinker of your contributions to the NDIS?
—————-
I’m not going to doxx myself, but even after reading your self-congratulatory bullshit above, I can assure you I’ve done more for disabled people and NDIS participants, particularly in respect of access to NDIS supports, than you have.
I also haven’t insulted them by using their status as participants of the scheme as an insult. It’s still not too late for you to apologise for it.
Given the tendency for things to tighten closer to polling day, these numbers give the coalition some hope. I was certainly hoping for a 53-47 and a continuation of the trend but I’ll take the dip in coalition primary and Dutton’s approval as a consolation. I think the coalition’s housing and tax announcements were mostly washed out by Labor’s. Maybe a narrow advantage to the coalition but I do like Labor’s $1000 write off as a policy, not just as a political tool. I’m still confident for Labor but a majority is ideal and almost everything besides a Liberal majority is still in play at this point
Remind me how many seats PHON actually have candidates in again?
C@t – Polls are lagging in the sense that are taken at sometime and then need to be compiled. For example, this Newspoll was conducted on Monday to Thursday, thus it is 3 days old.
The political parties have internal polling and can get the results almost constantly. They can partially results. This are not great for predicting the result but they can show if something suddenly trending.
2022 federal election result
The federal liberal party primary vote was 23.89% , total of 27 seats nationwide outside of QLD
The federal LNP total of 21 seats in QLD
total 48 seats
National party total of 10 seats
federal Lib/nats total of 58 seats
federal lib/nat combined primary vote 35.7%
Labor primary vote 32.58 % , total of 77 seats
leftieBrawler at 7:54 pm
Watch out Oakey!
A few pber’s will be on the phone tomorrow to both the AMA and the NDIS complaints commission to have us canceled !
————-
Double down, leftie. Accepting you insulted people for having a disability would demonstrate weakness. Tell me that I might as well be on the NDIS for giving a shit about it.
Stinker doxing is illegal .
Unless someone explicitly discloses their identity including full name etc we can be considered anonymous. I respect that concept and so should others.
If I were doxed the person who doxed me would be up on commonwealth charges. It might cause me some embarrassment but I won’t be the one going to jail or stuck with a criminal record 🙂
Currently it is like a game of hot potato.
Who can throw the most borrowed money funded welfare out there to those that do not need it. I believe Labor are winning on that front as proven in the polls. No one is interested in being strong and fix the systemic problems this country faces
Going to be a lot of tears sometime down the track when the music stops and that generation is left holding the hot potato.
Victoria is just a bit further down the track to where the whole country is headed.
Long time lurker and seldom poster from WA, regarding the primary votes etc.
It has been well established now that the greens PV can reliably add to Labors minus 2 percent or so (80%+ transfer approx) so a Labor PV of 43 vs a COMBINED liberal and nat PV of 35 is VERY healthy for Labor at this stage (combining the two major left parties and the two major right to provide the simplified outline of the two major political blocks).
Whether we see a tight majority/minority labor gov or a healthy majority Labor gov will depend on the next 20 days if the votes that have drifted from the coalition either stick to minor parties or if they get pulled back to either major.
The fact albo has seen such improved personal ratings while duttons have become worse suggest that even if they have not made the jump on voting intention, a number are within the realm of doing so.
One Nation standing in 147 seats only sitting it out in Canberra.
Rising cross bench numbers mean that 52/48 won’t translate to any kind of landslide result. Most likely it would be somewhere around the status quo. It’s hard to see Labor gaining overall on those numbers, but equally they won’t be losing much ground either. Very hard to see the Lib-Nats finding a way to win from here.
leftieBrawler at 8:00 pm
Stinker doxing is illegal .
Unless someone explicitly discloses their identity including full name etc we can be considered anonymous. I respect that concept and so should others.
If I were doxed the person who doxed me would be up on commonwealth charges. It might cause me some embarrassment but I won’t be the one going to jail or stick with a criminal record
————-
It’s still not too late to apologise for insulting disabled people, leftie. Obfuscate all you want as above, but if you say “sorry, I shouldn’t have said someone should be an NDIS participant as an insult” I’ll never raise it against you again.
nath:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 6:43 pm
[‘…The guy who pretended to be a doctor cracked me up, especially when he spontaneously assisted garbage collectors on the street out of a commitment to cleanliness.’]
Cleanliness is next to godliness, which suited industrialisation. Hence we have the
term homo hygenicus, ‘a concept coined by German medical historian Alfons Labisch, referring to the “rise of a hygiene-obsessed human”. It describes the shift in human behavior towards prioritizing personal hygiene and the disinfection of domestic spaces as a core part of daily life. This concept is used to highlight the transformation of human habits and societal norms as a result of advancements in hygiene practices.’
The L/NP have gone from leading approx. 51-49 to trailing 48-52 in a short space of time. That’s significant and why everyone’s talking about it.
“Currently it is like a game of hot potato.
Who can throw the most borrowed money funded welfare out there to those that do not need it. I believe Labor are winning on that front as proven in the polls.”
Haha, you lack a basic grasp of logic let alone economics
“Most likely it would be somewhere around the status quo”
Yes I feel the same now. Alp majority looks good even this far out. Mainly due to duttons non appeal.
No real swing in 3 years so labor won’t lose anything over 4% but gets a minority government.
From previous thread
”
Wat Tylersays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:00 pm
So the launches were today? I’m sure this thread was full of riveting analysis about how happy and confident one side looked while the other side looked helpless and depressed
”
Yes
If the opinion polls are accurate and the federal lib/nats combined primary vote is 35%
suggest they are not getting near 55 seats federal lib/nats currently hold , federal lib/nats going to lose
5 or more seats
Total of just above 50 seats or around high- mid 40’s
From previous thread
”
Scepticsays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:06 pm
The question is which housing policy is most stupid… Economists must be tearing their hair out.
What is the point of increasing demand / affordability ( at the margins ) without increasing supply?
All they will both achieve is a surge in prices
”
True
But atleast ALP has a modicum of a policy to address the supply side by providing free trade courses in TAFE.
Labor supporters do not need any reminder that a lead in a generally respected opinion poll of 52-48 does not necessarily mean an election win – even half way through an election campaign.
The election of 2019 is still too raw for any misplaced over-excitement when a dope like Morrison was eventually preferred even though he did not get in by that much. But, enough was enough.
What is more apparent is that the LNP is genuinely struggling at the moment, and the formerly unchallenged and untested Dutton is being exposed as the imposter many have felt him always to be.
And let’s cut the crap, if LNP were 52-48 at the moment, the LNP Jeer Squad would be peeing themselves with pleasure and rubbing it in.
Instead they are adopting the “how many straws can we find in the wind” to say it isn’t so.
I don’t care if it is majority Labor or minority Labor.
And a reminder to the Green hard liners……Just who do you think the political enemy is….Dutton? You would think so from some of the comments from these posters.
Scottsays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:00 pm
2022 federal election result
The federal liberal party primary vote was 23.89% , total of 27 seats nationwide outside of QLD
————-
Scott, you’re making a fool of yourself again by fiddling around with the coalition vote, and pretending it’s really the Liberal vote, and the LNP are not a part of the coalition. You are being a goose as usual.
Final Newspoll in the lead up to both the 2022 and 2019 elections, overestimated the ALP primary by between 3.5 to 3.6%.
Take it or leave it.
So all the carry on this weekend about “how great the ALP is”, resulted in a big nothing.
The LNP lost a point to Hanson. Big whoopie doo-dah