The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll is little changed on last week, with Labor holding a steady two-party of 52-48, but is notable in having the Coalition primary vote at its lowest level since October 2023, following a one-point drop to 35%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 33% and 12%, with One Nation up a point to 8%. Exact numbers are not yet provided, but there has evidently been a substantial improvement on Anthony Albanese’s approval rating, a cited minus four net approval comparing with minus 11 last week (UPDATE: Up three on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 49%). Peter Dutton is down a point on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 56%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 48-40 to 49-38. Forced response questions find a 64-36 split in favour of Labor on expectations of who will form government, and 53-47 on who is preferred. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1271.
sprocket_ @ #742 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:20 pm
Wow! sprocket_ ! ALP 30 in Queensland. Also, good to see a recovery in the NSW ALP vote. Looks like it may be a little bit better in Vic too?
C@tmomma says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:19 pm
nadia88 and Lars Von Trier, the Sub _._ twins, where are you?
Labor is still on 29 in Victoria..
Is that a 3 point primary increase for ALP in QLD from last election?
Sprocket
I’d love to see some SA primaries. We must be getting close to the point where Sturt could fall. It only has a 0.5% margin after the redistribution.
“Team Katich, if you think Trump’s approval rating is relevant to future ‘elections’ in the US you’re more optimistic than me.”
I’m not sure which of you is more optimistic. Trump’s approval rating mattering to a future Presidential election implies he’s breached the constitution to run again, I’m not sure that’s optimistic.
Cat mama yeah apparently the results had resolve in Victoria had their 25 so it is an improvement honestly I’m wondering if Labor could actually gain seats at the moment
Can’t wait to see the Copium spin from Centre. 😀
sprocket yeah but if one up four points they were 25 in Victoria and also think the Greens preference more so yeah they did have a big improvement
B. S. Fairman @ #743 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:20 pm
I guess whichever way they’re leaning. They can vote Independent in the Senate if they want, or vote informal if they truly don’t wish to vote for any party.
C@t
The Queenslander could be the sleeper. With Cristafuli giving them the balance they like, might be time to send him a message by loosening the iron LNP grip on the CaneToad State?
Quentin Rountree @ #754 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:23 pm
As long as the voters turf Michael Sukkar, and Josh Burns retains his seat, that’s all I care about!
Quentin Rountree they don’t roll that way, they are already telling themselves that Dutton has gone too far to the left and failed to embrace MAGA hard enough
I am fairly sure, if he is alive, he will try it on. Less likely a coup, more likely a constitutional crisis. he will just nominate and take it from there – ‘try to stop me’. Courts had a hard time stopping him when he was a private citizen 2020-2024 – he will be POTUS this time and he will bet nobody will get in his way.
Resolve WOW!
Also Labor losing state govt in Qld is having a positive impact on the party’s federal vote there.
sprocket_ @ #758 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:24 pm
That Education deal with Crisafulli, just before the election was called, was one of the PM’s small but significant masterstrokes. Queenslanders be thinking, if the Premier thinks the PM is alright then maybe I can loosen up a bit about him too?
Socrates
Resolve has Rest of Australia
ALP 34
LNP 28
GRN 13
ONP 6
IND 15
OTH 4
What was the dates of resolve looked cannot see says monthly with today’s date.
Was it up till yesterday or mid week last week?
Question answered it did not include Sunday’s launch.
Subgeometer. You are on to some good advice for Peter to talk to Gina about managing kids expectations.
I also should have remembered the Go Fund Me option if the kids need some financial support.
Dutton potentially on track to lose his seat, hope so, he deserves it.
Team Katich @ #761 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:25 pm
Just have to wait for the Grim Reaper I guess. As I’ve said all along, Trump must be mightily pissed at not getting to be President in his 50s instead.
That’s funny. Two new polls and no sign of Centre, Pied Piper or Steely Dan.
Are they passing around the smelling salts at Menzies House?
Omar Comin you you know what be a good idea to do get some of those Hugo boss uniforms that’d be good for them and maybe they could start start doing a salute and talk about how they need to increase living space and also they Poland
Sprocket,
What are the gender differences in Resolve? TIA
New thread.
I remember the 2022 Victorian State election where nearly every pundit in the media was predicting a Labor minority government.
And the start of the election broadcasts was dominated by the hosts and their ‘expert guests’ saying how the Coalition had ‘won’ the campaign. Apparently in the Sky coverage they were really selling this narrative.
Then the actual votes started coming in – confirming Labor had not only maintained its majority but had actually increased it!
I heard that on the Sky coverage their whole attitude changed and they started savaging Liberal leader Matthew Guy and all his cohorts and blaming them for the terrible campaign and awful result.
The current Federal campaign is starting to remind me of this. And if Labor do happen to increase their majority, the Sky After Dark (SAD!) crew will totally lose it I think!
sprocket_ @ #764 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:26 pm
Am I reading that right!?! LNP 28/b> in the Rest of Australia!?! 😯
Full Resolve Queensland primaries – graphs on right show trend
Patrick Bateman says:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 5:14 pm
Re ad blocking, what you actually need is a $30 Raspberry Pi plugged into your router configured as the DNS provider, with PiHole running on it:
https://pi-hole.net/
Vastly more effective than any browser plugin – I haven’t seen an ad on the internet for years.
——————————————
Could you direct to me specifically to one (Rasberry Pi) on Amazon?
Sprocket
Thanks 🙂 Sturt has to be a chance on those numbers.
The bypass road funding they announced as a “benefit” for Sturt makes almost no difference to the electorate BTW. Something about more funding for the State High Schools would have made far more sense.
Golly. Gosh. Ouch.
Pied Piper why don’t you’ve gone f*** off to America if you love Trump so much anyway I wonder how the liberal camper feeling I know J1983 at the beginning of the year was line ball with most of them thinking was going to be a labour minority so I’m wondering if they’re going to get really pissed the problem is the more Trump acts like an idiot which he will be for the liberals in Canada and the Labour Party in Australia have it in the bag
And Resolve Victorian primaries graphs showing big turnaround..
The counter-Reactionary vote is around 60%. The Reactionary tally in the House will very likely be in the 40s. Maybe by May 3 – as currently less-than-firmly committed voters focus more on the choices – the Reactionary tally will be in the 30s. I very devoutly hope so. The Reactionaries are deceitful, treacherous and cowardly. They are estranged from the Australian people and have become fixated on serving a foreign power. They do not deserve to be in the Parliament at all.
Checking boundary to see if can put Josh Burns last.
Before anyone gets overly excited about small movements in the state figures, the sample size is about 400 for each and therefore the margin of error is quite large (4.5%). So a movement of a 1% is probably insignificant.
Re S Simpson @6:20. ”I wonder if Dutton’s wish to live at Kirribilli is driven by a distaste of Canberra being full of “woke” lefty public servants”
You’re probably right. The Liberals always had a distaste for Canberra, and vice versa as far as I can tell. John Howard insisted in living in his home in Wollstonecraft (Sydney Lower North Shore).
The PM job is in Canberra. If someone doesn’t want to live in the Lodge, they should go for another job.
Confessions @ #764 Monday, April 14th, 2025 – 6:26 pm
Albo has been just about haunting Queensland for the whole term – he seems to have been here every second week. I think that’s more significant and I’ve been wondering if it would work. Seems I may have had my answer
ajm:
Good to hear!
A PM can run things out of Sydney and I don’t have a problem with it. I think a PM should change things up and spend a few months living in different parts of the country now and then. Can’t hurt.
”
subgeometersays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:18 pm
Dutton may have been taking Gina’s advice on money and adult children
”
This! And added to that tightwad.
The daughter is working in a child care centre.
The son is working as an apprentice
Dutton is reportedly is 30 million dollars rich and his children are in above situation. Is that tough love from Duttons?
I don’t understand above things.
”
Kirsdarkesays:
Monday, April 14, 2025 at 6:17 pm
Resolve Poll:
LNP: 34% (-3)
ALP: 31% (+2)
GRN: 13% (0)
ON: 6% (-1)
IND: 12% (+3)
OTH: 5% (0)
Preferred PM:
Albanese: 46% (+4)
Dutton: 30% (-3)
”
Resolve poll is unique in that they factored in Voice referendum impact on the way Australians think after Voice referendum because that referendum involved racist campaign and resulted in 40-60 loss for Yes vote.
After that it appeared that Albanese lost all his mojo and will to fight Tories.
In one resolve poll ALP PV was 24.5% and in another poll LNP PV touched 40% and in another poll the 2PP was 55-45 in LNP favour.
That is when ‘sub 30% baked in’ was introduced in to PB lexicon and ‘Albo Peak’ was adjudged long gone and forgotten and we are waiting for ‘Peak Dutton’ to occur right around this time.
I remember that night when resolve poll ALP PV was 24.5%. Saying Paul A was over the is an understatement.
When LNP hit 55-45, the heckling from Centre was unbearable. He repeated used the word ‘Whooshka”! to devastating effect.
Till 3 weeks to go and the impact of ALP and LNP Housing policies is not yet”baked in”. I think, as DS posted, the next set of polls will be very interesting. Dutton has thrown kitchen sink in his campaign launch.