Campaign launch day miscellany (open thread)

Labor how-to-vote cards, a potential plan B for Amelia Hamer, and Labor’s view of things in Sydney marginals.

A few days short of the half-way mark, both parties will today conduct what are quaintly known as campaign launches, which in effect are set pieces for Anthony Albanese to announce an expanded home deposit guarantee and Peter Dutton to promise a one-off income tax offset. Hopefully there will be a poll or two along shortly – consecutive Newspolls over the previous two weeks suggest one of those might be along late afternoon, but beyond that I can offer no further insight.

The latest:

• Labor’s member for Macnamara, Josh Burns, has announced his how-to-vote card will not direct preferences, so as not to put the Greens ahead of the Liberals as normal. Mohammad Alfares of The Australian reports “some Labor members” have related “internal rumblings about replicating Mr Burns’ move nationwide”. Macnamara aside, the seats where it could realistically make a difference are limited to the three held by the Greens in Brisbane.

• With suggestions former Victorian state Liberal leader John Pesutto may be driven to bankruptcy and from parliament over his defamation payout to party colleague Moira Deeming, John Ferguson of The Australian reports “powerbrokers” are considering Amelia Hamer as a potential candidate for a Hawthorn by-election if she is unsuccessful in recovering Kooyong from Monique Ryan.

• Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports Labor is more concerned about the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa, held by Anne Stanley on a margin of 5.2%, than Parramatta, held by Andrew Charlton on 3.6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

700 comments on “Campaign launch day miscellany (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 14
1 2 3 … 14

  1. Hastie is a clear frontrunner. Sure he might be a religious fundie but he is smart enough to keep a lid on it – where as for example Morrison wasn’t. But he does seem to a fully functioning brain and has the “look” of a leader – where as Angus Taylor looks like a farm machinery salesman.

  2. Ah, PP.
    Is there nothing that pricks your bubble?
    Have you not noticed the Trump clown car now has multiple reverse gears? Plus he installs a new one each day.

  3. Betting on ALP currently suspended in Sturt. Just a pause for a repricing because of money coming in or has there been some polling I’ve missed?

  4. “Question: What’s the difference between an electoral bribe and what Dutton is announcing today?
    Answer: Nothing”

    Question: what’s wrong with what the Left calls a “bribe” if there is nothing against the rules about it and it translates into votes from those the Left think are “susceptible to bribes”?
    Answer: Nothing. Not only that, it is targeted to low and middle income earners; Labor are moreover proposing wasting money on those who don’t need it*. Dutton’s team also knows that the average voter is not primed for delayed gratification; a one-time chocolate cake is much more useful than a permanent small lolly every year.

    *Disclaimer: This only applies to those on half a million dollars or more a year; I do think those on aspirational 200-400k salaries are not rich and should be entitled to a tax cut.

  6. So Peter Dutton’s campaign launch location had been kept secret – and is now revealed to be Sydney.

    This has enabled a congaline of NSW based ‘luminaries’ to attend…

    Australia’s proudest Labor state — Western Australia — will host Anthony Albanese’s official re-election launch while the Liberals and Nationals bring together their heaviest hitters to rally for Peter Dutton in suburban Sydney.

    Both camps will leverage party luminaries with Mr Dutton getting endorsements from his mentor John Howard and Tony Abbott.

    Scott Morrison, who has been based in the US after retiring from politics in 2024, will also be in Sydney to support his former cabinet colleague.

    Other VIP guests include former South Australian premier and current Liberal Party federal president John Olsen.

    The party’s former president Nick Greiner will also be in attendance, as will every member of the Coalition frontbench and a contingent of about 20 candidates, mostly from western Sydney.
    …..

    The opposition’s event is being held at a 250 person capacity venue in the Western Sydney suburb of Liverpool, which is the federal seat of Werriwa – a Labor-held electorate the Liberals are trying hard to pick up.

    The crowd will hear from Coalition Western Sydney spokeswoman Melissa McIntosh, as well as Nationals Party leader David Littleproud and Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley.


    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/federal-election/prime-ministers-vips-family-videos-inside-anthony-albanese-and-peter-duttons-campaign-launches/news-story/890a131e72b753e6fab06cc2114c02cc

  7. I don’t know that this was secret. I recall Trump at his rallies last year used to talk in millions when ranting about mass deportations. But still. With no clear strategy, you just know that actual citizens are bound to wind up being captured and sent to other countries.

    As the Trump administration aggressively pushes to deport more immigrants during the president’s first year back in office, one aspirational number keeps coming up in private conversations, according to four current and former federal officials with direct knowledge of the plans: 1 million.

    Deporting 1 million immigrants in one year would ostensibly surpass previous statistics, as the highest number thus far was more than 400,000 a year when Barack Obama was president. But officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the internal goal, said Trump officials aren’t revealing how they are counting the numbers. Analysts say the available statistics make that target appear unrealistic, if not impossible, given funding, staffing levels and the fact that most immigrants have the right to a court hearing before being removed from the country.

    White House adviser Stephen Miller has been strategizing with officials from the Department of Homeland Security and other federal agencies on an almost daily basis to meet that goal, two of the current and former officials said. One strategy to quickly increase numbers, officials have said, is to find ways to deport some of the 1.4 million immigrants who have final deportation orders but cannot be deported because their home countries won’t take them back.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/04/12/one-million-deportations-goal/

  8. pied piper says:
    Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:03 am

    Yeah….debt….the specialists in creating debt in the US are the Republicans, and none more so than the MAGA liars.

    Trump will bankrupt the US. Just watch.

  9. ScromoII says:

    “Question: What’s the difference between an electoral bribe and what Dutton is announcing today?
    Answer: Nothing”

    Question: what’s wrong with what the Left calls a “bribe” if there is nothing against the rules about it and it translates into votes from those the Left think are “susceptible to bribes”?
    Answer: Nothing. Not only that, it is targeted to low and middle income earners; Labor are moreover proposing wasting money on those who don’t need it. Dutton’s team also knows that the average voter is not primed for delayed gratification; a one-time chocolate cake is much more useful than a permanent small lolly every year.”

    But the L/NPs policy wont come into affect until 2026 and that is if the Coalition Win and then legislate it. Whereas Labor Tax Cuts are legislated already. We all know the Libs cannot be trusted on policy as they say one thing and then do another. The WFH saga was a debacle… so who is to say they come into to Govt and essentially hoodwink the electorate by not going through with it…

    Dont risk Dutton!

  10. B. S. Fairman says:
    Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:32 am
    Hastie is a clear frontrunner. Sure he might be a religious fundie but he is smart enough to keep a lid on it – where as for example Morrison wasn’t. But he does seem to a fully functioning brain and has the “look” of a leader – where as Angus Taylor looks like a farm machinery salesman.

    __________

    Hastie has only kept a lid on it because he hasn’t been put under scrutiny. We are talking someone that has refused to say whether he believes that our planet is 6000 years old.

    Question: which is more delusional? We inhabit a 6000 year planet or a flat planet or the planet in the centre of the universe? Although it is a fact that it is turtles all the way down 😉

  11. Trump thinks he can manipulate Xi, like he has been able to manipulate just about everyone else. Trump likes to keep his cards close to his chest and plan his poker moves ahead. However, Trump has finally found a bull to rival himself in aggressiveness and size. And a poker player who won’t blink.

  13. ScromoII @ #52 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 8:35 am

    “Question: What’s the difference between an electoral bribe and what Dutton is announcing today?
    Answer: Nothing”

    Question: what’s wrong with what the Left calls a “bribe” if there is nothing against the rules about it and it translates into votes from those the Left think are “susceptible to bribes”?
    Answer: Nothing. Not only that, it is targeted to low and middle income earners; Labor are moreover proposing wasting money on those who don’t need it. Dutton’s team also knows that the average voter is not primed for delayed gratification; a one-time chocolate cake is much more useful than a permanent small lolly every year.

    It’s not a short term sugar hit if you won’t get it until about 15 months and who knows what other stuff they’ll take away before then

  16. Outsider says:
    Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 6:41 am

    After excluding Nationals and Senators (and outer shadow ministry), these are the current Liberal shadow cabinet members: Ley, Taylor, O’Brien, Hogan, Sukkar, Tehan, Coleman, Hastie and McIntosh.
    ———————————-

    Of that bunch of mediocrities I would pick O’Brien who reminds me of Morrison, slick and opportunistic. Taylor is Dutton with hair, Sukkar is too nasty and the others are not leadership material.

  19. This is for Quantum Computing sceptic, Diogenes 🙂

    Quantum computer set to untangle math knots beyond supercomputer’s superpower
    Quantum computing is still in the early stages of development, but it has proven to be an extremely powerful tool for various applications. While most demonstrations of their efficiency are limited to theoretical work, researchers have now made strides to bridge the gap between theory and practical applications. Researchers from Quantinuum have now developed an […]

    Author Tejasri Gururaj

    Quantum computer set to untangle math knots beyond supercomputer’s superpower
    A look inside Quantinuum’s quantum computer.

    Quantum computing is still in the early stages of development, but it has proven to be an extremely powerful tool for various applications.

    While most demonstrations of their efficiency are limited to theoretical work, researchers have now made strides to bridge the gap between theory and practical applications.

    Researchers from Quantinuum have now developed an end-to-end quantum algorithm capable of solving a prominent problem in knot theory—a branch of mathematics for studying closed loops in 3D space, i.e., knots.

    Knot theory is widely used across several scientific disciplines. Most notably, it’s used in molecular biology to study instances where DNA can sometimes form supercoils and knots during replication.

    The study marks a potential milestone toward practical quantum advantage. This is the point where a quantum computer can solve a problem that a classical computer can’t in a viable amount of time.

    Previous studies have claimed to achieve quantum advantage, but none have any practical use case. While the researchers at Quantinuum haven’t yet demonstrated this advantage, they present the exact calculations that show that it is achievable with their upcoming 96-qubit Helios quantum processor.

    Knot theory and Jones polynomial
    Knot theory belongs to the larger field of topology that deals with the properties of spaces when they undergo continuous deformations like twisting, bending, or stretching.

    Determining if two knots are identical is nuanced and not simply based on their appearance. This is similar to how a mug and a donut are topologically equivalent because they have one hole, but might not look similar in appearance.

    To distinguish between knots, researchers often depend on the Jones polynomial, which acts like a fingerprint. If two knots have different Jones polynomials, it means that they are definitely not topologically equivalent. However, if they have the same Jones polynomial, they may or may not be topologically equivalent.

    As knots become more complex—more crossings or overlaps—the Jones polynomial becomes challenging to compute. However, it is an important parameter to distinguish between knots.

    Developing a quantum solution
    The researchers at Quantinuum came up with an end-to-end quantum algorithm for evaluating the Jones polynomial. This means the algorithm can handle all aspects of solving for the Jones polynomial without any additional processes.

    They additionally developed novel error mitigation methods to handle present quantum computers, which are extremely noisy. In other words, they wanted to minimize the errors due to different factors, including the environment.

    Their implementation significantly reduced the number of operations needed to calculate the Jones polynomial compared to previous studies. They ended up using 15 times fewer quantum gates!

    https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/quantum-computing-knot-theory

  22. Here’s how much a ‘Made in the USA’ iPhone would cost

    Defending its “reciprocal tariffs,” the White House this week said that President Donald Trump believes the U.S. has the workforce and the resources to build iPhones in the U.S.
    Analysts who follow the company say the idea of an American-made iPhone is impossible at worst and highly expensive at best.
    One analyst estimates that on labor wages alone, a U.S.-made iPhone could cost 25% more than they do now. Another analyst pegged the price of a stars-and-stripes iPhone at $3,500.

    When President Barack Obama asked the late Apple CEO Steve Jobs about making an iPhone in the U.S., Jobs didn’t mince words.

    “Those jobs aren’t coming back,” Jobs said at a dinner with Obama in 2011.

    https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/04/11/heres-how-much-a-made-in-the-usa-iphone-would-cost.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17444764688329&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2025%2F04%2F11%2Fheres-how-much-a-made-in-the-usa-iphone-would-cost.html

  23. It’s the young that will have to pay back labors debts why does the federal Labor government burden younger generations with its debt burden?
    Priced them out of a house as well with labors mass importation of people from students to dozens of other visa classes driving up the cost of housing and values.

    That tax announcement from libs is aimed at middle to outer suburbs labor hates it because they represent inner suburbs elites.

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 8:43 am
    Trump thinks he can manipulate Xi, like he has been able to manipulate just about everyone else. Trump likes to keep his cards close to his chest and plan his poker moves ahead. However, Trump has finally found a bull to rival himself in aggressiveness and size. And a poker player who won’t blink.

    The irresistible force (Trump) confronts the immovable object (Xi). The world is waiting to find out what happens next.

  27. 18 months away for Dutton’s LITMO bribe

    And new Dutton policy – tax deductibility for interest rates for,1st home buyers. Must be a newly built house. And for first 5 years.

  28. Libs $1200 tax handout and Labor’s first home buyer handout.

    Just cynical sugar hits that don’t fix the structural problems.

  30. Speers giddy with new policy announcements

    Karvelas seems happier than in recent times recounting the ‘large voting block’ of Gen Z which will apparently like the Surron policy

  32. ”
    Griffsays:
    Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 6:45 am
    The Coalition are all over shop, but as I said last night, do not discount kulcha wars, xenophobia and self-interest. A one off tax offset will be appealing to more than a few voters.
    ”

    +1
    That is the reason why scromo posted that Dutton pulled rabbit out of his hat. LNP never cared about budget surplus, debt and deficit especially for current lot. They are only there to beat ALP.

    Oh well! We will see the impact of it on election night. We will know whether Australians chose short term or long term.

  34. Via PK – Saul,Eslake says it’s the worst policy ever – Dutton’s interest rate deduction will,encourage 1st home buyers to borrow more to get bigger deductions

  39. The housing market is worth $11 trillion….
    Public companies are only worth $4 trillion.
    If we keep injecting more into the housing market, we are putting all our eggs in one basket.

  40. “Oh well! We will see the impact of it on election night. We will know whether Australians chose short term or long term.”

    Very few people in this world do delayed gratification. The exceptions are probably East Asia, such as Japan, and most of all China, where children study until midnight at grade school in the hope that it will get them into university and therefore a good job (which in this current climate is unlikely). Mainstream Australian voters just want their money and want it fast.

  41. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 9:21 am
    PK in love with the interest rate deductions – showing her blue tinge

    _______

    It was always there. There was a reason she inherited Fran Kelly’s chair.

    As to whether it is overcompensation or not, I shall leave to others.

  42. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:04 am
    By their actions, so shall you know them:
    ”

    So Pete Hegseth is a neo-nazis?
    I read reports that Trump kept Mein Kamph beside him bed.

  43. ScromoIIsays:
    Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 9:27 am
    “Oh well! We will see the impact of it on election night. We will know whether Australians chose short term or long term.”

    Very few people in this world do delayed gratification. The exceptions are probably East Asia, such as Japan, and most of all China, where children study until midnight at grade school in the hope that it will get them into university and therefore a good job (which in this current climate is unlikely). Mainstream Australian voters just want their money and want it fast.”

    And July 2026 is a long time to wait. A lot can happen between now and then – including the Libs changing their mind due to ‘economic situation’ and the ‘mess’ left by Labor – as they will cry.

    God Help us if Dutton is elected PM!

  44. A $1200 tax offset is likely to be welcomed by those who pay tax.
    Those of us who don’t …
    And even then it’s a one off, a temporary thing like the fuel excise cut.
    More important for us is longer term sound economic management that brings inflation down without cutting the service.

  46. Rossmcgsays:
    Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 9:30 am
    A $1200 tax offset is likely to be welcomed by those who pay tax.
    Those of us who don’t …
    And even then it’s a one off, a temporary thing like the fuel excise cut.
    More important for us is longer term sound economic management that brings inflation down without cutting the service.”

    Unfortunately there arent many that have this thinking – its all about ‘me & now’ for many.

  48. “Coalition Leader Peter Dutton will unveil a plan to allow first-time buyers of newly built homes to be able to deduct mortgage payments from income taxes if he is elected on May 3.
    The policy would mean a family on average incomes would be around $11,000 a year better off — or $55,000 over five years.”

    The Coalition demonstrates guts and balls while the Albanese government limps along like an ageing eunuch.

  49. ”
    Mostly Interestedsays:
    Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:26 am
    I was thinking about the stunning lack of policy Dutton brought to this election. Looking back at the Morrison government, it’s basically a continuation of Morrison’s approach to do nothing. Invisible submarines and tax cuts. Turnbull had a pretty bare cupboard too if you reflect upon it. Abbott just repealed stuff.

    The right have run out of policy ideas, all they have at hand is populist culture wars stuff, and you cant run a country on that.
    ”

    The Western democracies right wing parties don’t run (aka govern) a country. They rule and boss over the country. That is what they do from the beginning of 21st century.

  50. “Unfortunately there arent many that have this thinking – its all about ‘me & now’ for many.”

    It’s only “unfortunate” for the Left.

Comments Page 2 of 14
1 2 3 … 14

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *