A few days short of the half-way mark, both parties will today conduct what are quaintly known as campaign launches, which in effect are set pieces for Anthony Albanese to announce an expanded home deposit guarantee and Peter Dutton to promise a one-off income tax offset. Hopefully there will be a poll or two along shortly – consecutive Newspolls over the previous two weeks suggest one of those might be along late afternoon, but beyond that I can offer no further insight.
The latest:
• Labor’s member for Macnamara, Josh Burns, has announced his how-to-vote card will not direct preferences, so as not to put the Greens ahead of the Liberals as normal. Mohammad Alfares of The Australian reports “some Labor members” have related “internal rumblings about replicating Mr Burns’ move nationwide”. Macnamara aside, the seats where it could realistically make a difference are limited to the three held by the Greens in Brisbane.
• With suggestions former Victorian state Liberal leader John Pesutto may be driven to bankruptcy and from parliament over his defamation payout to party colleague Moira Deeming, John Ferguson of The Australian reports “powerbrokers” are considering Amelia Hamer as a potential candidate for a Hawthorn by-election if she is unsuccessful in recovering Kooyong from Monique Ryan.
• Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports Labor is more concerned about the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa, held by Anne Stanley on a margin of 5.2%, than Parramatta, held by Andrew Charlton on 3.6%.
‘paul A says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 6:48 pm
Kooyong: The Monique Ryan campaign appears to be falling further off the rails.
Not content with having her opponent’s signs ripped down, and demanding her staff refer to her as “Dr” Ryan, she’s now reported as being in trouble with Parliamentary expense rules.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/ryan-seeking-advice-on-electorate-office-being-linked-to-campaign-body-20250413-p5lrcu
Looking like a Liberal pickup that seat. Go Amelia.
Trainwreck of a campaign from that teal.’
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Amelia the Renter? THAT Amelia?
With MAFS now ended I’ve no reason to watch commercial FTA thus have been spared the high rotation Patriot of Trumpists ads each night.
Steelydan:
Next week will be crucial. If the stock market has found it’s bottom and start edging up, the Trump factor will subside and polls will even up.
You do not understand. The reason the stock market is cratering is not just because Trump’s tariff policy is so bad. It is that he has no tariff policy. He changes his mind on tariffs from one week to the next, sometimes even from one day to the next. There is no certainty. There is no visibility. Businesses cannot plan ahead, so they cannot make decisions. They are paralysed.
The Trump administration is not just incompetent – it is also indecisive. Businesses can deal with incompetence. They cannot deal with indecisiveness.
https://helia.com.au/the-hub/calculators-estimators/lmi-fee-estimator
So a 5% deposit on a $650,000 loan would typically cost a first home buyer over $100,000 in lenders mortgage insurance fees.
So, Labor’s plan would save twice as much for a first home buyer compared to the LNP plan, and needing less up front to get in.
Super Trouper @ #597 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 6:52 pm
I saw another one on Antiques Road Trip this afternoon. In it they actually had a woman worrying over cost of living fanning herself with a book and looking like she’d been dragged through a hedge backwards! Her hair was teased up like crazy. I don’t get it. Who’s doing these ads for the Liberals?
So the launches were today? I’m sure this thread was full of riveting analysis about how happy and confident one side looked while the other side looked helpless and depressed.
“about cost of living under Labor. ”
expect a lot of this. This really is their only hope, and it will resonate. However, I think that enough of the electorate by now know it’s unrelated to the current govt.
Centre which election are you referring to??.
Australia sadly wouldn’t qualify as a democratic socialist country by any metric and compared to certain European nations that are.
Please clarify which election you are referring to that has a socialist party running as a major ?
Centre, sounds like you’re hoping for a Bradbury !
Just something on mainstream media bias.
Channels 9 and 10 in Sydney are giving Labor preferential coverage in my view (maybe gambling advertising has played a factor), Channel 7 is fair. Sky News is openly and strongly Liberal, and the ABC are quietly and secretly strong Socialist Red.
Their ABC should just admit it, they’re a joke.
Might Newspoll delay til tomorrow to include some reaction to the campaign launches?
Because you really want a government of barely-disguised thuggery and mean behaviour towards anyone that doesn’t get with the Dutton program, such as that which Dutton presented to the nation today, don’t you Centre?
Just saw my first Coalition ad with faux tradie not-great actors having a moan over a beer about cost of living under Labor.
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With MAFS now ended I’ve no reason to watch commercial FTA thus have been spared the high rotation Patriot of Trumpists ads each night.
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This was SBS! That news service the cashed up white guys with utes and a gripe flock to, right?
Having a look at the LNP campaign launch. It begins with a recorded segment of Dutton holding an iPad listening to messages of praise from his wife, kids , John Howard among others.
Peter Dutton is a man with a net worth of over 30 million dollars. His remarks following a message from his daughter:
“She’s only 22 and doesn’t have a chance in hell to save for a house deposit under this Labor government “
Teaser..
Newspoll: Hung parliament looms as Coalition’s primary vote drops
A majority of voters now expect a Labor minority government, as the Coalition’s primary vote falls to below levels recorded at the last election amid a boost in personal approval for Anthony Albanese. SUBSCRIBE to read more
Just saw my first Coalition ad with faux tradie not-great actors having a moan over a beer about cost of living under Labor. Cringeworthy. I know the Right is campaigning well when they actually get under my skin. This was just embarrassing.
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I saw another one on Antiques Road Trip this afternoon. In it they actually had a woman worrying over cost of living fanning herself with a book and looking like she’d been dragged through a hedge backwards! Her hair was teased up like crazy. I don’t get it. Who’s doing these ads for the Liberals?
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Snort!
There was a story on Nine News about a UComms poll on nuclear. Five thousand undecided votes across twelve marginal seats. Question appears to have been does the nuclear policy make you more or less likely to vote for the Coalition. Think the numbers were 50-33 for less likely.
Wat Tyler @ #605 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 7:00 pm
You don’t have to bother reading it you know. Nor should you be letting it get to you the way it seems to be.
The question is which housing policy is most stupid… Economists must be tearing their hair out.
What is the point of increasing demand / affordability ( at the margins ) without increasing supply?
All they will both achieve is a surge in prices..
Wat Tyler at 7:00 pm
So the launches were today? I’m sure this thread was full of riveting analysis about how happy and confident one side looked while the other side looked helpless and depressed.
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This has given me the biggest chuckle on this board for quite a while.
No, the last Newspolls were conduct during the Week – Monday to Friday. They won’t be picking up reactions to todays launches. Also most Australians are not glued to the TV watching them either. It will take days for a lot to find out anything and longer to react.
I got 2 ads in a row from Michael Sukkar on Youtube today for some reason.
Newspoll: Hung parliament looms as Coalition’s primary vote drops
One half of this statement doesn’t jive with the other??
Not a word tonight from channel 9 in Sydney about first-home buyers being able to access their super for a home deposit.
The Coalition has a much better housing policy – they need to ram home the message.
The quiet Australian’s vote 😉
Sceptic @ #618 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 7:06 pm
Sceptic,
Labor’s policy is predicated on SUPPLYING 100000 new houses. The Coalition’s is not.
52-48 Labor
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:05 pm
A majority of voters now expect
On what brilliant bit of insightful data do they rest expectation?
If it comes to a blind guess.. I guess Labor has gets 105 seats
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
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1m
#Newspoll 52-48 to ALP
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
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45s
#Newspoll ALP 33 L-NP 35 Grn 12 ON 8 others 12
Did you get a whiff griff?
I like your numbers !
Centre has got a new Unknown, only he Knows…’The quiet Australians vote’.
And if the Newspoll teaser is to be believed it looks like the ‘Quiet Australians’ are voting with their feet and walking away from the Coalition. 😐
The Murdoch goons have to spin it
B. S. Fairman @ #626 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 7:10 pm
Whooshka! There goes Centre on a banana peel!
Primaries 33 Labor, 35 Coalition, 12 Greens, 8 ONP
LNP 35 is dreadful
“One half of this statement doesn’t jive with the other??”
ya that sounds a bit screwy. They probably mean a drop from recent primary vote polls.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:09 pm
C@t.. suggest you have a quick look at Alan Kohler on iView…
Labor’s supply increase will take effect way way after Albo’s “bribe” gets swallowed by increasing sin price of housing.. both policies are on the run rubbish
I still have a twitter account for one reason. I assume Kevin is telling the truth.
When ScromoII does faux outrage at racism you know the Libs have lost.
KB has the goods. Net sats Dutton -19, Albo -4, PPM 49-38 Albo’s way
EDIT: And Sprocket_ 🙂
leftieBrawlersays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 6:13 pm
Hard being green yes Dutton has decided that the LNP base is now an eclectic mix of ultra conservative religious 1st-3rd generation voters in communities like Lakemba Bankstown, Blacktown etc and low skilled and educated whites in regional and semi-rural rings around the metros who’s combined household incomes are <75k per year.
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Political parties should campaign in areas that don’t vote for them but Lakemba Bankstown and Blacktown are not becoming liberal party heartland sure they might become marginals that labor lose at bad elections.
One Nation and Trumpets are eating into the LNP vote.
So where does that end up when the are distributed.
You guessed it – back to the LNP.
Not a bad poll for the LNP.
Dr Bonham answers C@t’s earlier question…
Innumerate spin headlining from the Australian again. 43% expect an ALP minority (21% ALP majority); 43% is not a majority. Moreover on the voting intention results Labor would be likely to win a majority.
Griff at 7:14 pm
KB has the goods. Net sats Dutton -19, Albo -4, PPM 49-39 Albo’s way
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How does a 15 point difference in net satisfaction between the PM and OL lead to only a 10 point difference in PPM? Is there anything at all to read into that, particularly if there’s a real risk of an assault to Labor from their left flank in the inner city suburbs etc?
Antony Green said LNP need to hit 42% to form government. Latest Newspoll has them at 35%. How to polish this turd? Dutton is secretly lovely and the clear majority of cats prefer him? Yes the turd polishing is getting that silly.
Kevin Bonham has his uses if you want to learn about the quirks and nuances of the Tasmania upper house.
But I’m more a man with the big stick guy
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:11 pm
LNP 35 is dreadful
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Terminal velocity
Dutton must win the remaining twenty days of the campaign. He has the substance (policies) to do it against a debt-building and poor government.
That lib primary will give a lot of indies more hope.