A few days short of the half-way mark, both parties will today conduct what are quaintly known as campaign launches, which in effect are set pieces for Anthony Albanese to announce an expanded home deposit guarantee and Peter Dutton to promise a one-off income tax offset. Hopefully there will be a poll or two along shortly – consecutive Newspolls over the previous two weeks suggest one of those might be along late afternoon, but beyond that I can offer no further insight.
The latest:
• Labor’s member for Macnamara, Josh Burns, has announced his how-to-vote card will not direct preferences, so as not to put the Greens ahead of the Liberals as normal. Mohammad Alfares of The Australian reports “some Labor members” have related “internal rumblings about replicating Mr Burns’ move nationwide”. Macnamara aside, the seats where it could realistically make a difference are limited to the three held by the Greens in Brisbane.
• With suggestions former Victorian state Liberal leader John Pesutto may be driven to bankruptcy and from parliament over his defamation payout to party colleague Moira Deeming, John Ferguson of The Australian reports “powerbrokers” are considering Amelia Hamer as a potential candidate for a Hawthorn by-election if she is unsuccessful in recovering Kooyong from Monique Ryan.
• Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports Labor is more concerned about the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa, held by Anne Stanley on a margin of 5.2%, than Parramatta, held by Andrew Charlton on 3.6%.
Where’s that Centre, the punter’ pals, gone to?
Has anyone else noticed the major parties suddenly adopting policies of the left?
First it was the coalition finally coming out and saying what anyone who’s been paying attention has known for ages, we don’t have an easy coast has shortage, we’re drowning in the stuff, we have an export problem. Sure their ‘reservation’ policy is complex, won’t work and is probably unconstitutional, but at least they’ve finally acknowledged the root of the problem
Likewise today we have Labor’s new housing supply initiative, which has maaaaany parallels with the greens policy, and Claire O’Neill was almost channeling Max C-M when she made the points that the government needs to step up where the market won’t, and build the kinds of houses that may not be profitable for developers. There are differences of course, but the greens should be able to support the Labor offering no problem, and credit to Labor for announcing it.
The coalition’s housing policies are yet more demand side nonsense that will only make the problem worse in the long run.
But kudos to the likes of the greens, the Australia institute, David Pocock and all the progressive forces that keep chipping away on things like gas and housing, progress IS possible
jt1983
says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 4:23 pm
@TK – they do, the Liberal Party will always have people who are members and voters (I was one for a brief moment) who think the feral rw stuff is just for show, and the corporate-minded moderates keep the machine going. Not much you can do about it and you can’t lose sleep over it.
They’re wrong, moderates have been purged and by the looks of it the party is increasingly captured in its own info bubble. They’d rather be Antipodean Republicans than Australian Liberals.
The Teals gutted the moderates from the federal Liberal representation and Dutton is the only semi credible option they had left.
If the Libs lose then Dutton is on borrowed time and Taylor (completely inept) or Hastie (Jesus Freak who wont say wether the Earth is more than 6000 years old… I mean seriously, how long do you think he will last as LOTO??) will get the gig.
As I said previously, the political landscape in this country has completely changed and while the Liberals have been praying for rain, Albanese has been busy digging a well.
Good if this catches on with other industries.
Strange no report in our media! (carbon tax on shipping)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20xxv22wl9o#
Minister for Western Sydney ?
Surely that’s not legit ..?
I’m happy that someone can draw attention to their recorder playing but it just reminds me of one of the things that were wrong in grade two.
Not much of a kiss greeting from Plibersek.
I suppose he will deny it.
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 5:25 pm
Not much of a kiss greeting from Plibersek.
I suppose he will deny it.
==============================================
How many kiss greetings did Dutton get?
So we know how to score it.
Newspoll if out today should be early again.
Hopefully they wait a couple of days to release for voter reaction to policy launches .
Still think libs have great weapon in WA this week Greens will most likely have balance of power in state parliament announced so Greens/labor both state and federal would be a disaster.
View from the here, on my side of the border in page it’s all pretty meh, saw my first Kevin Hogan corflutes today. Our ballot is a massive collection of right wing crackpots of various stripes, an ALP candidate who seems fine but is from the wrong part of the seat (ie my area in the deep south) and is pretty well phoning it in, a green who seems fine but again not much discernable effort, and some nice sounding minor party called the good party who seem progressive and worth a look, but won’t amount to anything. Sadly I’d say Kevin romps it in in the absence of a serious challenger
Across the border in Cowper things are hotting up and I’m pretty confident caz heisse will get there
Pat Conaghan is not liked or respected, and I know a bunch of coalition leaning people like my boss who reckon he’s a dill and are willing to give caz a go. The nats attempts at sandbagging have been both laughable and seriously out of touch – one of their big promises is 800k for a new visitor information Centre at the Coffs wildlife rescue sanctuary, which is utterly ridiculous because the internet is a thing that exists, and also we used to have a visitor information Centre at the big Banana (which is orders of magnitude more of a destination than the sanctuary and a destination in its own right) and that centre closed due to lack of patronage (at the big Banana, which is packed at peak times)
Pat Conaghan and David littleproud have done some Trainwreck interviews on local radio too. Don’t want to call it but if I was a gambler I’d go long on caz heisse
You should check out the latest at TMZ tailor-made. You been smoking them.
Partisan forum positive vibes are great, and there is also some pretty consistent pro ALP polling, at this stage at least, and anti trump sentiment dragging the coalition vote down. The betting markets seem favourable too. It does seem like it’s in AlP’s favour atm. But its a bit early yet, but I’m optimistic.
@Boerwarsays: Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 4:48 pm
I haven’t been following “Bluey” all that much but Bluey please elaborate on why One Nation and the Nationals both have a higher cumulative score than the Liberals or the Greens?
Bluey, Ginger, Green Onions, connect the dots.
https://i.imgur.com/eGlkXH3.jpeg
#astroturfersgivethemselvesstupidnames
Grew up in a “build to buy” at cost Housing Commission home. It got my parents out of shared accommodation (1st 3 years of my life). The area was basic but lots of families (ended up lots of single parent families) but because they were bought and not merely rented, people took pride in their homes, and for the most part, took care of them.
I’ve often wondered why it wasn’t done again because it was very successful.
My bias naturally give today’s launch points to Labor. Much more energy, more positive generally, and not the disastrous tech difficulties that Dutton experienced. (One wonders whether the sound ppl/teleprompter operators did it deliberately — towards the end Dutton had to wait lots for the latter to catch up). Dutton is not a very good public speaker … his modulation and timing was completely off, and where Albo ‘built’ to a crescendo, Dutton was like a wind-up toy that was running out of puff.
Ok non election related matters I took a punt last weekend, saw some good water, the right temperatures and favourable altimetry so we went VERY wide on a tuna hunt , went 60km out to sea way out beyond the shelf and eventually hooked and absolute monster Yellowfin tuna (for my area) about 40km out just at the bottom of the shelf in about 1800m
Right in the middle of the shipping lane of course so we had an hour and a half fight with two of us taking turns on the rod whilst dodging cargo ships and bulk carriers, a gaff shot and a 2 man lift with a tail rope and we land a 155cm, approx 65-70kg tuna. Biggest one anyone has seen in this area in living memory.
Fish was gilled and gutted immediately and put into an ice slurry and then we turned straight for home , so it will feed a lot of people
It’s my birthday tomorrow, the big 43, so playing hooky from work and gonna muck around in close chasing mackerel and long tail tuna (northern bluefin)
Sounds like an empty soundbite “I’ll be a Prime Minister for LOCATION X”.. as if one of the biggest parts of the biggest city in Australia don’t have politicians caring about it.
I assume we’ll get a Newspoll and a Resolve Poll tonight – they won’t be polling next weekend because of the Easter break.
Bluey, fennel, oregano is a better connection, mais chacun a son gout.
Entropysays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 5:29 pm
_____________________
It reminded me of Tony Jones and Rebecca Judd.
nice 1 pageboi!
@Democracy Sausagesays: Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 5:44 pm
So the only polls for next week will be the usual Roy Morgan on Monday/Tuesday and YouGov on Thursday Evening/Friday Morning?
Newspoll might be an hour later with the end of DLS across the country
Of course the one weapon Dutton has is Murdoch, and the fact that other media organisations like the ABC regurgitate what comes out of the Australian or the Daily Tele or the Herald Sun every morning.
Bludgeoned Westie – yeah mate, I would assume so. There’ll be a rush of polling tonight, and maybe a Morgan or Essential on Monday or Tuesday, and then not much later in the week.
Goll I wanted to post earlier today basically the same question as I thought about how centre and his comprehensive election betting market posts have not been seen for some time now. But I wanted to have a few hours break after my careless reference to the NDIS.
The betting houses must be annoyed at all of the fat payouts they will soon have to be making to punters/ insiders etc who took advantage early of the big Labor odds.
Steelydan @ #421 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 3:01 pm
Copium.
Looks like Scomo has a Trump length tie that’s hanging outside his coat, just like his idol.
Australia has 2/3 the population of Canada yet a small fraction of the number of polls Canada has during an election campaign.
Burgey in NSW it ended last week. Did it go for longer in other states ??
I understand US customs are fond of the odd internal body cavity search..
Boerwar @ #436 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 3:34 pm
Thank you, Boerwar.
They are Liberal. They lie.
Has Tony Abbott shrunk?
Mental Health.
NDIS.
Don’t do it.
At what point does Dutton realise this is it and decides he has nothing to lose and go all in with the ONP-style dog whistling to the bulk anglo masses in an all or nothing final play?.
The state execs have insisted he play a more reasonable and kind persona thus far however this was based around the assumption that they were tracking to win the election.
Now that this is no longer the reality I wonder if Dutton might attempt a ‘reset’ next week and switch to migration etc in a Hail Mary ?
Interesting to see the Liberals launching they campaign in Western Sydney, which is apparently now “Liberal Party heartland”, announcing they would have a Minister for Western Sydney
They have obviously given up on the Teal seats and need to find a new base but that seems a bit of a stretch
Can’t imagine it will play too well in other places although I guess Western Sydney is one of the fastest growing areas in the country and the new airport will potential add a lot of business out that way
I’m guessing there will be lots of local policy announcements out that way as well
Price’s MAGA hat photo has hit the SMH. She even posted it on her social media page!
“Has Tony Abbott shrunk?”
yes He and scomo appear diminutive.
Trump Blinks again…..
Apple was on brink of crisis before Trump granted tariff concession
Apple avoided a major crisis by securing a tariff exemption from the US government for popular consumer electronics, including iPhones, iPads, and Macs. The exemption, which includes a drop in tariffs on goods imported from other countries, provides relief for Apple and the consumer electronics industry heavily reliant on China for manufacturing. However, uncertainty remains as Apple may still need to pursue more dramatic changes in its supply chain due to potential shifts in White House policies and potential retaliation from China.
I guess the yanks don’t how to use tiny screw drivers after all
The minister for western Sydney will be some liberal party hack.
Looks like Scomo has a Trump length tie that’s hanging outside his coat, just like his idol.
He hasn’t adopted the Windsor knot yet which has lately become fashionable among the upper echelons of the Trump crowd.
Do you get any Black Bream in your area Pageboi?*
* bonus prize if you know the footnote concerning black bream during the Whitlam government.
Snail, why do you think Morrison was there?
Shame Dutton shame.
Remember the last twenty years with this bastard?
Time for him to get back to his financial portfolio aye.
FFS
Sceptic – The Chinese electronics will still get the 10% “everyone” tariff and the 20% Fentanyl Tariff.
Sceptic its not that Americans can’t use tiny screwdrivers but the Chinese have a natural advantage by being short sighted ( according to the movie “Crazy People” )
A minister for Western Sydney?
Hopefully he/she can facilitate the evacuation.
Scomo cloned himself with the obrian spinoff
Hard being green yes Dutton has decided that the LNP base is now an eclectic mix of ultra conservative religious 1st-3rd generation voters in communities like Lakemba Bankstown, Blacktown etc and low skilled and educated whites in regional and semi-rural rings around the metros who’s combined household incomes are <75k per year.
Dutton might not have any originality and innovation when it comes to policy but you can’t deny his pioneering spirit in pivoting to a segment of the population that his rank and file love and what to be more attached to.
Aspiring Liberal politicians that fill the ranks of young Liberal clubs on uni campuses nation wide can’t wait for their time to come.
Sorry OC, no we don’t get black bream up here we’re way too far north, and I’d be very interested to hear the anecdote