A few days short of the half-way mark, both parties will today conduct what are quaintly known as campaign launches, which in effect are set pieces for Anthony Albanese to announce an expanded home deposit guarantee and Peter Dutton to promise a one-off income tax offset. Hopefully there will be a poll or two along shortly – consecutive Newspolls over the previous two weeks suggest one of those might be along late afternoon, but beyond that I can offer no further insight.
The latest:
• Labor’s member for Macnamara, Josh Burns, has announced his how-to-vote card will not direct preferences, so as not to put the Greens ahead of the Liberals as normal. Mohammad Alfares of The Australian reports “some Labor members” have related “internal rumblings about replicating Mr Burns’ move nationwide”. Macnamara aside, the seats where it could realistically make a difference are limited to the three held by the Greens in Brisbane.
• With suggestions former Victorian state Liberal leader John Pesutto may be driven to bankruptcy and from parliament over his defamation payout to party colleague Moira Deeming, John Ferguson of The Australian reports “powerbrokers” are considering Amelia Hamer as a potential candidate for a Hawthorn by-election if she is unsuccessful in recovering Kooyong from Monique Ryan.
• Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports Labor is more concerned about the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa, held by Anne Stanley on a margin of 5.2%, than Parramatta, held by Andrew Charlton on 3.6%.
paul A says:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 9:11 pm
Interesting that Mr Modi has got a further carve-out on tariffs applied to his country. Now down to 10%, even though there is a 90 day pause. 10% is below the standard 12% V.A.T. India applies within her domain.
A VAT and a tariff are entirely different. They are not related to or comparable to each other.
You do not have a point of argument here. You are relying on an irrelevance.
MAGA-minded polemical self-trickery at work here.
According to LNP, ALP tax cuts are wrong but LNP tax cuts are right.
Four legs tax cut bad. Two legs tax cut good. 😐
Permanent tax cut bad. Temporary tax cut bribe-get out the pom poms. 🙄
Bright note only 22 more days of enduring inane MAGA / LNP posts on PB… they then slink off till the next Liberal wipeout
HWP – for some reason, in MAGA land, VAT/GST applied to imports is considered to be a tariff.
#weatheronPB
A lovely passage,
from pale white to palest blue.
Coolly elegant.
Outsider says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 5:59 am
MAGA ( aka GOP) land believe ALL tax is bad tax except when used as subsidies for farmers & increase output of carbon.
I dont know why people are surprise about Peter Dutton performance during the beginning of the federal election campaign
Peter Dutton showed he was not a campaigner during the federal by-elections
Scott says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 6:19 am
Stilted.. wooden & thick
Question: What’s the difference between an electoral bribe and what Dutton is announcing today?
Answer: Nothing
A big part of the reason why Dutton is LOTO is because of the absence of any realistic alternative. Assuming Labor is re-elected, as now seems increasingly likely, who else would take over from him? The current opposition front bench is especially weak, so the alternatives are few.
After excluding Nationals and Senators (and outer shadow ministry), these are the current Liberal shadow cabinet members: Ley, Taylor, O’Brien, Hogan, Sukkar, Tehan, Coleman, Hastie and McIntosh.
The Coalition are all over shop, but as I said last night, do not discount kulcha wars, xenophobia and self-interest. A one off tax offset will be appealing to more than a few voters.
Federal liberal party leadership
Sukkar , as with Dutton could lose their seats , even if Dutton doesnt the federal lib/nats haven’t improved on 2022 federal election , he wont be leader
Angus Taylor likely the leader , Ted O’brien deputy leader , Darren Coleman shadow treasurer
Andrew Hastie probably did his dash,
What happened to Americans screwing tiny little screws into iPhones? 😐
Trump administration to exempt smartphones and computers from tariffs
Announcement said tariffs – including those imposed on China – would also not apply to other electronic devices
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/12/trump-administration-smartphones-computers-china-tariffs
Trump is a flog.
If Angus Taylor is the answer, then the Libs will be going from bad to worse. Or perhaps least worst!
By their actions, so shall you know them:
Dutton and the LNP, seem to be be intent on following the leader of the third world, Trump, with its provision of lollies galore and a chocolate coating for future deficits.
It’s becoming very clear why the flakey Morrison was given a chance as PM rather than have “dud” Dutton replace the envied Turnbull.
The Australian voters have been given no choice but to ignore Dutton and the Liberals as an alternative government.
Dutton’s Qld police colleagues had Dutton sussed out. You can trust him.
Trump reducing democrats massive twin deficits 1.2 trillion a year trade deficit and 1.4 trillion budget deficit.
Doing well DOGE is cleaning out the unproductive and No more DEI which will drive up productivity.
Meanwhile borders secure,murders and rapists and gang bangers being rounded up and fentanyl crisis disappearing.
Sugar the real enemy in health in USA is being addressed.University terrorists aka Hamas lovers are being dealt with.
Panama Canal shipping back under USA control,China being dealt with,Russia and Iran talking ,Hamas and Houthis being bombed and documents released on Kennedy,Epstein etc with more coming.
Europe paying more for its defence and woke leftie nutters in Europe dealt with by Vance.
Trumps yearly health check went well yesterday.
Ahhh Ymca!
A few thoughts on that Labor Preferences story,
> Acknowledging Labor fears the long term electoral effects of a minority government, if this preferencing decision managed to put Dutton into Kirribilli in a close race, wouldn’t that also give the Greens and other leftie figures a big stick to whack them with, not to mention the disaster a Dutton-in-particular term would be for the country.
> Isn’t the point of HTVs more about ensuring a formal vote rather than directing preferences. Sees like a really bad idea not to direct them on that alone.
> WB says this would only affect Brisbane, but we are talking about open tickets, not preferencing the Libs above the Grees, so wouldn’t that come into play in all non-classical contests especially the Teal ones where Labor are very likely to come third or below?
Outsider says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 6:58 am
If Angus Taylor is the answer, then the Libs will be going from bad to worse. Or perhaps least worst!
————————
The federal liberal party has no quality in who they can choose , they will be in opposition for a while
I was thinking about the stunning lack of policy Dutton brought to this election. Looking back at the Morrison government, it’s basically a continuation of Morrison’s approach to do nothing. Invisible submarines and tax cuts. Turnbull had a pretty bare cupboard too if you reflect upon it. Abbott just repealed stuff.
The right have run out of policy ideas, all they have at hand is populist culture wars stuff, and you cant run a country on that.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html
Chinese military officers have been present behind Russian lines with Beijing’s approval: https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-chinese-military-officers-have-been-present-behind-russian-lines-with-beijings-approval/
Trump extends Biden’s sanctions against Russia: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/04/12/7507317/
Police called to British Steel plant after Scunthorpe workers prevent Chinese executives entering premises: https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/police-attend-british-steel-plant-after-scunthorpe-workers-prevent-chinese-execu/
Humiliated Kemi Bandeoch forced to admit claim about trying to save British Steel wasn’t true: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/humiliated-kemi-bandeoch-forced-admit-35043651
Mass immigration has resuscitated hatred of women across Britain – Even many feminists don’t want to confront the reality of the racist and sexist attitudes that have been imported into Britain: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/11/lefts-wilful-ignorance-of-modern-misogyny-stain-society/
Trump Is Begging China to Make a Deal Over Tariffs: https://newrepublic.com/post/193918/donald-trump-begging-china-deal-tariffs
Trump DOJ Doesn’t Know Location or Well-being of Maryland Man Mistakenly Deported to El Salvador: https://www.latintimes.com/trump-doj-doesnt-know-location-well-being-maryland-man-mistakenly-deported-el-salvador-580579
Musk Mocked After ‘Top Secret’ Cabinet Meeting Notes Go Viral: ‘They Wrote That to Make Him Feel Included’: https://www.latintimes.com/musk-mocked-after-top-secret-cabinet-meeting-notes-go-viral-they-wrote-that-make-him-feel-580561
Wisconsin teen allegedly killed parents in extremist plot to assassinate Trump, FBI says: https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/wisconsin-teen-allegedly-killed-parents-extremist-plot-assassinate/story?id=120750496
U.S. measles cases topped 700 as of Friday: https://apnews.com/article/measles-outbreak-texas-rfk-new-mexico-kansas-vaccine-e904ec9781f1d164c73afe4ab71774fe
Taiwan charges Chinese ship captain with damaging undersea cables for the first time: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/taiwan-charges-chinese-ship-captain-damaging-undersea-cables/105166868
Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html
From the Land of No Imports – Tariff Edition
Trump brings Liz Truss’s ‘moron premium’ to the US.
https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/04/trump-truss-moron-premium/682421/
Another backdown from Trump, this time exempting tech from Trump’s Tax.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/12/trump-tariff-exemptions-smartphones-computers/
Trump’s erratic leadership, ballooning fiscal deficits, and rapidly eroding diplomatic ties are making global investors wary of being too exposed to the United States. The global financial order is shaking beneath our feet.
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/12/dollar-index-tariffs-global-financial-system
It’s the retailers who are in a tough bind at the moment. Do they raise prices? Or wear the increase costs?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/12/business/retailers-tariffs-uncertainty.html
The US was once the world’s economic anchor. Thanks to Trump’s Tax it may never recover that role again.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/04/trump-tariff-chaos-unfixable/682419/
With the 145% Trump Tax on China, what were once inexpensive children’s toys are set to become luxury items.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/12/economy/toy-prices-us-china-tariffs/index.html
In South Carolina, a Once Thriving Textile Hub Is Baffled by Trump’s Tax – the Upstate region of South Carolina was saved by foreign companies after the fall of its textile industry. Now, tariffs pose another round of uncertainty. More evidence if any were needed that Trump does not care about his voters.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/12/us/south-carolina-manufacturing-tariffs.html
Why China won’t give in to Trump: Xi needs to be top dog.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/04/china-us-tariff-negotiations/682405/
China raises tariffs on US goods to 125% as the two countries are locked in a tariff tit-for-tat.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/business/china-tariffs-125.html
Chinese President Xi Jinping has no shortage of pressure points to ensure Americans feel the pain from President Trump’s superpower trade war and he doesn’t even need to lift a finger to apply pressure.
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/11/china-options-retaliate-trump-tariffs-trade-war
And here’s an example of Xi squeezing. China is already choking off supply to the US on the sly.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/12/china-trade-war-exports-00287123
Washington Post editorial says China is talking tough to Washington but presenting itself as the adult to the rest of the world, seeking stable free market trading. Yes, it’s only Trump who is the precocious toddler!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/04/11/china-trade-war-trump-jinping/
Millions of Americans take Heparin, but tariffs might reduce access to this drug because the US supply domestic chain isn’t equipped to meet the demand for it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/04/11/tariffs-pharmaceuticals-china-heparin/
Americans are panic buying iPhones, essential baby items and Christmas gifts as fears Trump’s Taxes will make these items unaffordable.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/12/us/politics/tariffs-china-iphones-panic-shopping.html
A survey of diplomats representing over 15 countries shows confusion about Trump’s tariff agenda. You don’t say? Not even Trump knows what he’s doing!
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/11/trumps-tariff-trade-waiting-china-00287407
Conor Friedersdorf says Trump’s Taxes are the perfect case for Congressional intervention, arguing that no one person should control the economy. Where ARE Republicans…?
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/04/congress-tariffs-trump/682415/
“I spoke with investors about Trump’s tariff whiplash and left those conversations scared for the country.” The cause of her fear: a falling bond market would essentially bankrupt the country.
https://www.msnbc.com/top-stories/latest/trump-tariffs-scares-crisis-in-confidence-rcna200847
The bond market becomes the latest guardrail against full Trumpism. Welcome to the resistance!
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-tariffs-pause-bond-market-rcna200659
President Trump’s whiplash tariffs may have inadvertently achieved his goal of reordering the global economy by inspiring investors to sell U.S. assets and move their money elsewhere. Goodbye foreign investors, it was nice knowing y’all!
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/11/sell-america-trump-tariffs-bonds
Little wonder that Trump is suddenly scrambling for allies. The US needs all the friends it can get now that it essentially has a trade embargo with China.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/11/americas/trump-china-trade-war-allies-intl-latam/index.html
Why are Democrats pulling their punches on Trump’s trade war, asks the WaPo. I agree, and why aren’t they calling the tariffs a Great Big Trump Tax on Everything?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/04/11/democrats-tariffs-trump-trade-war-protectionism/
Former Obama staffer Jen Psaki with 4 takeaways from Trump’s Tax.
https://www.msnbc.com/inside-with-jen-psaki/4-takeaways-trump-tariffs-disaster-rcna200924
It will be interesting to see what happens in Werriwa and MacMahon. These seats are ground zero for socially conservative sentiment held by various cultural groups and are ripe for so-called “anti woke” local independents to do well in.
Can’t get enough of US Tariffs, and what alternatives there are? And the plethora of theories about what -D chess Trump is actually playing? And the history of China’s ascension to the WTO?
All-In is the leading podcast amongst the tech bros, with people like David Sachs and Peter Theil regular panelists. Elon Musk frequents.
This episode is spiced up seriously, and intellectually, by the addition of Ezra Klein of the NYTimes and Larry Summers, former Obama Treasury Secretary and Harvard Professor. David Sachs – now the AI Czar on Trump’s team, and a Silicon Valley economist Chamal round out some big egos.
https://youtu.be/KcmMOZKnKAk?si=HwcmVsCFCG1jIH5r
Donald Trump’s administration has been begging for a call from Chinese President Xi Jinping—despite Trump’s claims that his reciprocal tariff policy sent nations scrambling to cut deals with him. But instead of fostering negotiations, it seems their desperation only made things worse.
Beijing announced Friday that it was raising tariffs on U.S. goods from 84 percent to 125 percent, following confirmation from the White House the day before that it was placing tariffs of 145 percent on Chinese goods.
Ahead of Thursday’s announcement, the Trump administration had attempted to talk Chinese officials out of levying more retaliatory tariffs, and advised them to have their president give Trump a call, according to CNN.
https://newrepublic.com/post/193918/donald-trump-begging-china-deal-tariffs
Morning all. Great to see the Labor campaign launch today has a centre-piece policy to do something substantial about home ownership.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/12/albanese-to-pledge-10bn-to-help-build-100000-homes-for-first-time-buyers
This will not only appeal to that demographic. Lots of Australians my age have children, grandchildren or nieces and nephews caught up in the home price crunch.
Plus, if the impacts of external forces (Trump) on our economy stay negative, some domestic economic activity support will be welcome.
The Greens will complain Labor stole its idea, but saying we need to spend $10 billion on housing is not the same as working out how to do it and doing it.
pied piper says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:16 am
Trump reducing democrats massive twin deficits 1.2 trillion a year trade deficit and 1.4 trillion budget deficit.
Oh, the fiscal position will be much much worse than a deficit of $1.4 trillion/year. Once the tax cuts go through it will be double that or more.
The trade “deficit” will shrink only as the US economy also shrinks. It’s possible that the decline of the use of the USD as a reserve currency will lead to a massive depreciation of the dollar. This would be very disruptive to the global economy and would lead to a very severe contraction in the US economy in both its Continental and extra Continental dimensions.
On the question of rapists, Trump should be in prison…
As big law firms bend the knee to President Donald Trump, another target of his executive orders is fighting back. On Friday, Susman Godfrey—which won a successful $787 million lawsuit against Fox News over the network’s airing of 2020 election conspiracies—filed a suit against a Trump executive order it says was meant to “exact revenge.” “No administration should be allowed to punish lawyers for simply doing their jobs, protecting Americans and their constitutional right to the legal process,” Susman Godfrey said in a statement.
On Wednesday, Trump signed an executive order barring Susman Godfrey from federal contracts held by the firm’s clients, removed its employees’ security clearances, and banned them from accessing federal buildings. The firm’s complaint said that Trump’s order made “no secret of its unconstitutional retaliatory and discriminatory intent to punish Susman Godfrey for its work defending the integrity of the 2020 presidential election.” “But this goes far beyond law firms and lawyers,” Susman Godfrey said. “Today it is our firm under attack, but tomorrow it could be any of us. As officers of the court, we are duty-bound to take on this fight against the illegal executive order.”
Susman Godfrey is represented by Donald Verrilli, former solicitor general during the Obama administration. https://www.thedailybeast.com/firm-that-won-multimillion-defamation-suit-against-fox-news-takes-on-trump/
It was Ian Anderson of Jethro Tull who wrote 50 years ago “The wise man doesn’t know how it feels to be Thick as a Brick”
Many Australian voters have little interest in, or understanding of, our voting system. They rely upon How to Vote cards to ensure their vote is Formal (valid).
Greens voters rarely need HTVs, but some Labor voters do.
Any Labor politician who ignores this fact risks losing their seat in a close election.
They may think they are being clever – they are wrong.
Im worried this ‘sugar hit’ tax rebate of $1200 by the L/NP, though only being once-off will ‘bribe’ the electorate into voting for Dutton, despite it being temporary – the long term impact of a Dutton Govt would be a disaster! Please for the county’s sake, think past your hip-pocket and consider the long-term.
pied piper says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:16 am
F##k off.. .. that’s a technical term MAGA have trouble understanding.. & if you are really interested in Debt & Deficit .look at this comparison..
The US is the Bank thats too big to fail.. only reason it’s survived is that Debt is an export product & the US is the worlds biggest exporter
What a humiliating climbdown by Trump.
“Amjidsays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:57 am
Im worried this ‘sugar hit’ tax rebate of $1200 by the L/NP, though only being once-off will ‘bribe’ the electorate into voting for Dutton, despite it being temporary – the long term impact of a Dutton Govt would be a disaster! Please for the county’s sake, think past your hip-pocket and consider the long-term.”
I really doubt it will make an impact
The fuel excise cut hardly resonated either. People either aren’t aware of it or otherwise not changing their vote
Just the Libs going full hypocrite again (eg calling Labor’s tax cut a “bribe”) but it just adds to the complete unpreparedness and unworthiness for government more than anything
Labor government federally in Australia love communist China but human rights abusing China is sinking.
They spent 2 trillion on the credit card China this week in propping up their stock market.
That’s on top of massive debt already and western countries massive and ongoing withdrawal from it.
I do remember Reagan a great president bringing the soviets to their knees as they ran out of money via sanctions etc same tactic happening with China when the young see no future and Chinas young are unemployed increasingly then things change eventually.
16% of USA budget is being now spent on interest on its debt and its increasing as usual labor luvvies think falsely the USA has unlimited funds.
But that’s the view of 10 years of deficits by the federal labor government also as they state in their recent terrible budget.Debt needs to be payed back somehow.
I can well believe that Labor would be more worried about Werriwa than they are about Parramatta – Werriwa is the classic outer suburban seat where one off tax offsets and fuel excise cuts and other sort of bribes would have an impact, whereas Parramatta is home to a lot of public servants.
How does Labor counter Dutton’s big cash splash today – they try and find holes in Angus Taylor’s costings, or they ignore it, or they frantically come up with something at the last minute in the cost of living sphere?
Because Dutton’s announcement today will work with some people, he’s got the big headline on the front page of the Murdoch tabloids that he would have wanted.
Does it change the equation electorally? I doubt it does in the Teal seats, I actually think the Liberals won’t regain anything they lost in 2022 out of those, and they could well lose a few more to independents – Bradfield, Wannon, Forrest, Cowper.
Literally none of those things are happening PP.
I notice you didn’t mention anything about tariffs… They’re really working well aren’t they?
‘You can’t stop the music… ‘
There’s really nobody in the liberals that has any chance to do even as “well” as Dutton in 2028. If Dutton loses his seat, I wonder if the liberals would end up trying to Campbell Newman it and pick someone not currently in parliament as their leader. Maybe one of the more popular ex-premiers? (Rules out Campbell Newman himself, of course)
I’m not sure who would be popular enough… Baird? Keep in mind, they don’t have to be actively absolutely popular, just relatively popular compared with current liberal MPs.
Haha
Yeah whatever the appeal of Baird or otherwise, very amusing you would think a NSW mod would be welcomed in
Next term is going to be a shit show whoever is leader….permanent war
Revisionist – I’m not saying Baird would be a likely choice, just that they’d only do it if the non-MP were sufficiently popular, and I struggle to think of any others that satisfy that requirement.
@Glen:
Gladys?
(which would be spectacularly dumb)
Realistically it will be Well Done Angus first in all probability. But I could see a Campbell style parachute leadership challenge 12-18 months in, for sure. The cupboard is so very bare for the Libs.
I’ve often wondered if Berejiklian might be tempted into federal politics.
Josh Frydenberg would have been the obvious successor to Scomo if he hadn’t lost Kooyong in the 2022 election.
The Liberals really are bereft of talent in their ranks, and probably the one with the most potential, Andrew Hastie, he’s been buried in this campaign, you barely see him at all, their travelling circus seems to consist of Dutton, Jacinta Price and Michella Cash. Even Angus Taylor is essentially sidelined a lot of the time.
It’s not just a sober decision around popularity though
It is that the contradictions in the party will be unleased if the result ends up how it is looking
The right will insist on the “we weren’t conservative enough” interpretation of the campaign and tear down anyone who deviates
Dave Sharma, if a NSW moderate is what the Liberal Party needs for a reset
Federal liberals picking a woman as leader? I don’t see it happening any time soon.
Edit: and a moderate has even less chance…
So much good happening forgot to mention 80 countries want to deal on reducing tariffs with USA.
Meanwhile Australias fed labor loser government with economic growth for years just above recession levels,debt increasing massively,productivity shot due to widespread duds in positions via quotas and a scare campaign on Trump which is solving the USAs problems.
The Labor government loves big government in Australia and big taxing and big spending.3 years of this has happened .
Do the “ milkshake” labor luvvies!You are experts at it!
Mmm, Gladys.
I guess it bypasses speculation about corruption, just appoint someone who is a standout.
Berejiklian would be mad to re-enter politics. The scandal that ended her career would be brought up constantly. I found the outpouring of love for her following her resignation bizarre as it overlooked the reason for the resignation. It was also so Sydney focused – the scandal would have defined her reputation in the rest of Australia.