A few days short of the half-way mark, both parties will today conduct what are quaintly known as campaign launches, which in effect are set pieces for Anthony Albanese to announce an expanded home deposit guarantee and Peter Dutton to promise a one-off income tax offset. Hopefully there will be a poll or two along shortly – consecutive Newspolls over the previous two weeks suggest one of those might be along late afternoon, but beyond that I can offer no further insight.
The latest:
• Labor’s member for Macnamara, Josh Burns, has announced his how-to-vote card will not direct preferences, so as not to put the Greens ahead of the Liberals as normal. Mohammad Alfares of The Australian reports “some Labor members” have related “internal rumblings about replicating Mr Burns’ move nationwide”. Macnamara aside, the seats where it could realistically make a difference are limited to the three held by the Greens in Brisbane.
• With suggestions former Victorian state Liberal leader John Pesutto may be driven to bankruptcy and from parliament over his defamation payout to party colleague Moira Deeming, John Ferguson of The Australian reports “powerbrokers” are considering Amelia Hamer as a potential candidate for a Hawthorn by-election if she is unsuccessful in recovering Kooyong from Monique Ryan.
• Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian reports Labor is more concerned about the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa, held by Anne Stanley on a margin of 5.2%, than Parramatta, held by Andrew Charlton on 3.6%.
Paula
One Trumpet are notorious for spraying their preferences – or not numbering all the boxes.
Stinker says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:17 pm
Griff at 7:14 pm
KB has the goods. Net sats Dutton -19, Albo -4, PPM 49-39 Albo’s way
—————
How does a 15 point difference in net satisfaction between the PM and OL lead to only a 10 point difference in PPM? Is there anything at all to read into that, particularly if there’s a real risk of an assault to Labor from their left flank in the inner city suburbs etc?
________
Apologies it was 49-38. I mistyped the last numeral. But it is very possible. It is a Venn diagram.
@Stinker – if you want to read too much into it? Sure 😉
Anyway – Every lost 1% in PV doesn’t come back 1:1. So, no a 35% LNP primary is pretty terrible, objectively.
Dutton is a massive liability – full stop.
leftieBrawler at 7:17 pm
Kevin Bonham has his uses if you want to learn about the quirks and nuances of the Tasmania upper house.
But I’m more a man with the big stick guy
—————
Such a charmer. At least you didn’t accuse KB of working in a sheltered workshop or something, I guess.
Centre was sounding cocky before the Newspoll came out. I wonder how he’s feeling now?
And where’s Lars Von Trier and nadia88, the _._ twins?
Putins botts always surface after catastrophic Liberal news
Centre says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:18 pm
Dutton must win the remaining twenty days of the campaign. He has the substance (policies) to do it against a debt-building and poor government.
________
Well we should be able to look at the costings of the Coalition’s policies now, shouldn’t we? 🙂
‘paul A says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:15 pm
One Nation and Trumpets are eating into the LNP vote.
So where does that end up when the are distributed.
You guessed it – back to the LNP.
Not a bad poll for the LNP.’
================
haha.
I don’t worry about polls.
I think something else is more important. You are a big smart girl C@t maybe you can work it out?
sprocket_says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:18 pm
Paula
One Trumpet are notorious for spraying their preferences – or not numbering all the boxes.
==============
Not according to YouGov or Kevin Bonham’s (alternative vote flow).
What is it – 72-75% of PHON votes now flowing back to the LNP.
Newspoll doesn’t give the Trumpet primary. What will that flow be – 99.9% to the LNP!
As for the Green vote – forget about 87% of that flowing back to the ALP circa 2022.
Did you see the preference flows in the recent QLD and NT elections? Much lower than 87%.
And now in Vic the ALP are running a “split ticket” or whatever on a inner urban seat. What do you think Greens voters will think of that. Yeah – it will be much lower than 87% on election day.
Also is the problem with one nation mostly popular in rural areas where they were already gonna vote for the Liberals or the nationals also hoping that one nation holy crap this is bad for the liberals Jt1983 is the campaigns being decided weeks ago also one nation preferences aren’t don’t follow through back to the liberals I heard it was 60 40
Paul A I have a feeling you excelled at the polishing of your brass belt buckle in basic training at kapooka with your take on those numbers??.
A young leftie brawler could have down with you as a dorm mate when I joined to UNE reserve unit over 20 years ago to have some money for an end of year 3 month workday in whistler.
We figured out early that you just had to borrow someone else’s from an adjoining dorm who had already had their inspections .
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:22 pm
‘paul A says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:15 pm
One Nation and Trumpets are eating into the LNP vote.
So where does that end up when the are distributed.
You guessed it – back to the LNP.
Not a bad poll for the LNP.’
================
haha.
——————-
Did you enjoy Albo’s flop today at “his” launch. What a joke.
Check polymarket Boerwar – taking a bit of a dive this weekend.
Will take a further dive after tonights Newspoll.
Getting worried?
Centre @ #649 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 7:18 pm
Grasping at straws stage now, Centre. 😐
Pual you do you realize that one nation is popular in Queensland right where I don’t know how to tell you this but if you have to rely on one nation to win then you kind of screwed also how does that help Peter when he needs to get back the independency seats
paul A says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:23 pm
sprocket_says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:18 pm
Paula
One Trumpet are notorious for spraying their preferences – or not numbering all the boxes.
==============
Not according to YouGov or Kevin Bonham’s (alternative vote flow).
What is it – 72-75% of PHON votes now flowing back to the LNP.
Newspoll doesn’t give the Trumpet primary. What will that flow be – 99.9% to the LNP!
As for the Green vote – forget about 87% of that flowing back to the ALP circa 2022.
Did you see the preference flows in the recent QLD and NT elections? Much lower than 87%.
And now in Vic the ALP are running a “split ticket” or whatever on a inner urban seat. What do you think Greens voters will think of that. Yeah – it will be much lower than 87% on election day.
_________
What is this fresh preference allocation method? What is wrong with with past election prefs or respondent allocated prefs? Perhaps you should trademark it 🙂
Griff
I still think the election is there to be won. The One Nation vote is high. It could be a long night on May 3.
I’ll settle for a little Whooshka 🙂
Stinker you’ve sold me. Now just to figure out who you really are .
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 6:55 pm
Scromoll
Have you ever thought of getting a life?
The reference was to the movie “Crazy People” but Nath upped the racism antec by suggesting the Chinese are short.
______________________
Jeez, talk about throwing someone under the bus. Cheers OC. But it was the Japanese not the Chinese, and it was not I suggesting they were short, it was the movie.
paul A says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:23 pm
sprocket_says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:18 pm
Paula
One Trumpet are notorious for spraying their preferences – or not numbering all the boxes.
==============
Not according to YouGov or Kevin Bonham’s (alternative vote flow).
What is it – 72-75% of PHON votes now flowing back to the LNP.
…’
===================
You have 100 Liberal votes.
PHON grabs all 100 Liberal votes.
It leaks a quarter of the prefs.
The Liberals have 75 votes.
One Nation and UAP preferences flow 60-64% to LNP.
So LNP nett gain is only 20-28% of their total vote.
DYOR
New thread.
paul A
Not worried. I have been predicting for three years that this would be a minority Labor Government. My only slight happy worry is that Labor may actually come up with a majority government after all.
Is there a book yet on who will replace Dutton as LOTO?
A toothache will drive you crazy. Put it into Medicare.
Win Win
Centre says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:26 pm
Griff
I still think the election is there to be won. The One Nation vote is high. It could be a long night on May 3.
I’ll settle for a little Whooshka
________
Well that is a reasonable position. It certainly isn’t over yet. Those…ahem…policies that Dutton announced today could harvest some votes in the outer suburbs. We shall see.
The debt to GDP ratio is lower under Albo than Morrison. So Labor grew the economy, and reigned in debt.
I have no issue with Kevin. Just expressing that he is a Tasmanian electoral guru.
Stinker thank you for honing in on me. I’m honoured and humbled to once again find that my unique brand of PB commentary has riled up yet another distractor, most likely a Tory who doesn’t like how I can say it how it is in the style that I do.
leftieBrawler at 7:27 pm
Stinker you’ve sold me. Now just to figure out who you really are .
————
Just someone who thinks people who insult people with disabilities are pretty gross. But I appreciate that conflicts with your personal philosophy.
You know, it’s not too late to just say that it was gross to insult someone by saying they were on an NDIS program. I don’t expect you’re a big enough person to do it, but I’d genuinely be impressed if you did.
Evening all,
Some observations regarding America
A friend of mine is about to head to Europe for a medical conference and is also studying for their PhD. One of their supervisors is from a mid-sized university in the USA and is fearful for their future (and the university) as there is funding being slashed left, right and centre. This supervisor who is left-leaning is also worried about whether they would be allowed BACK into the States and if they would be interrogated and arrested by ICE. The supervisor has noted that consumer spending is down and there is a general feeling of fear and uncertainty amongst neighbours in her town.
Of more concern is that there is a real fear that Trusk (Trump) will enact martial law on or around April 2o which marks the birthday of a certain former dictator.
Her views is that America is pretty much f****d and that many of her colleagues are now seeking opportunities in Europe and elsewhere to continue their research and study.
Secondly there have been a number of articles in The Age / SMH regarding travel to the USA including some harrowing reports of Australians being detained on various trumped up charges in regards to their visas. The overwhelming consensus is if you DON’T need to travel to the US then don’t go.
Furthermore, another friend who works for QANTAS has noted that bookings on international flights to the States from Australia and elsewhere have plummeted dramatically in recent weeks and that QANTAS are running the numbers to determine whether they need to adjust their schedules.
Federal liberal party candidates in Liberal party held seats or non lib/nats seats ,
majority need a primary vote of 43%+, the federal Liberal party candidate have a very weak 2pp, even with one nation and Palmer party candidates
If the QLD LNP candidate for Dickson , doesnt get a primary vote 43% +, likely loses
liberal party candidate for Deakin , doesnt get a primary vote 43+ , likely loses
The fall in personal ratings for Dutton is further evidence pointing to his campaign being terminal. The more people see him the more they dislike him, he’s just a very unlikeable person.
Labor majority seems a decent chance though they are hardly loved either so think there is a fair chance of further fragmentation to minor parties over the course of the campaign if people are feeling underwhelmed about the options.
“So where does that end up when the are distributed. You guessed it – back to the LNP.”
30% of One Nation & Palmer voters going to Labor is better than 100% of those votes being LNP in the first place.
Stinker. I made a careless reference to the ndis in a post earlier today. Minutes after it I realised it wasn’t appropriate I edited to delete the NDIS reference.
But in that time others began reposting it despite the original being edited.
Yet again it’s being brought up. But I’m actually honoured because what it really implies is that there are conservative lurkers like yourself that get so enraged by my commentary and prose on PB they sit and wait for even the slightest slip up from me to try and go to town with it.
You’re not the first stinker, and you won’t be the last. I am humbled. Thank you . Keep it up.
‘mj says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:36 pm
The fall in personal ratings for Dutton is further evidence pointing to his campaign being terminal. The more people see him the more they dislike him, he’s just a very unlikeable person.
Labor majority seems a decent chance though they are hardly loved either…’
===============
Better than being loved just like the Greens stuck on 12%, eh?
Boerwar – a new thread has been created. Give it up!
‘Steven says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:35 pm
Evening all,
Some observations regarding America…’
===================
It is not just the substance. It is the sheer unpredictability. An associate works for a large multinational which does business in numerous countries. On an almost daily basis they are getting a call from their in country people in one country or another that goes something like: ‘Such and such a project has been cancelled’. These are multi-million dollar thingies stopped in mid-stride. Then sometimes they get another call. Oh. We made a mistake. It has not been cancelled after all.
2022 federal election result
The federal liberal party primary vote was 23.89% , total of 27 seats nationwide outside of QLD
The federal LNP total of 21 seats in QLD
total 48 seats
Labor primary vote 32.58 % , total of 77 seats
”
Wat Tylersays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:00 pm
So the launches were today? I’m sure this thread was full of riveting analysis about how happy and confident one side looked while the other side looked helpless and depressed
”
Yes
”
Scepticsays:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 7:06 pm
The question is which housing policy is most stupid… Economists must be tearing their hair out.
What is the point of increasing demand / affordability ( at the margins ) without increasing supply?
All they will both achieve is a surge in prices
”
True
But atleast ALP has a modicum of a policy to address the supply side by providing free trade courses in TAFE.
nath:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 6:43 pm
[‘…The guy who pretended to be a doctor cracked me up, especially when he spontaneously assisted garbage collectors on the street out of a commitment to cleanliness.’]
Cleanliness is next to godliness, which suited industrialisation. Hence we have the
term homo hygenicus, ‘a concept coined by German medical historian Alfons Labisch, referring to the “rise of a hygiene-obsessed human”. It describes the shift in human behavior towards prioritizing personal hygiene and the disinfection of domestic spaces as a core part of daily life. This concept is used to highlight the transformation of human habits and societal norms as a result of advancements in hygiene practices.’
Centre @ #649 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 7:18 pm
We can rebuild him, we have the polices, he will be the $600 Billion dollar Dutton (nuclear)
“Dutton must win the remaining twenty days of the campaign. He has the substance (policies) to do it against a debt-building and poor government.”
Where is General Wenck huh!! Reequipped with daS WankenPanzer’s from Elon he arrives in ……….
Boerwar wrote:
—
Bluey reckons the true beauty of PHON is that it bleeds primary votes off Dutton while delivering only somefraction back.
—
That’s exactly right Bluey.
The King reckons that the Teals are a reverse DLP for the Libs, bleeding votes off them from the centre that will effectively stop them from winning office for a generation.
Boerwar at 4.48 and 5.04 pm
Does Bluey need a bigger abacus?
Hanson has rightly stalled in his calculation after he got focused on the fact that she has been doing nothing.
This is hard to square with your “hoovering” assumption for PHON.
I think you have agreed that the polls are probably overstating Hanson’s support due to her being the only named group other than Labor, Liberals and Greens.
On Dr Ryan, you have focused on the penultimate set of questions in the interview. That was 90% of the way through the interview. She would not have lost votes from the interview.
Ms Spender will not be losing votes because of her style of campaigning.
While Lars might be on leave, his prediction of a record combined major party vote might be a winner, because of the decline in the Lib primary during the campaign.
Bluey might need to ad a qualifier: it is very difficult to generate a general formula for accurately assessing a specific situation like the probability of an independent winning one seat.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 6:33 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/apr/13/australia-election-2025-live-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-housing-tax-campaign-launches-cost-of-living-labor-coalition-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-67fb41008f0893c437a034b1#block-67fb41008f0893c437a034b1
Albanese:
“That’s why I’m asking Australians to vote Labor on 3 May, so we can keep building a future that is true to our values and worthy of our people, where no one is denied the chance to be their best, no one left to face uncertainty alone, no one cut off from the opportunities that lie ahead, no one held back, and no one left behind. Everyone of us, building Australia’s future together.”
————–
Such empty rhetoric, completely delulu.
*******
Ah! Almost the perfect encapsulation of Pegasus’ political position: “Don’t vote Labor. They want to take a collective approach to building a better and fairer Australia”.
Would you like to nominate which Australians you want to leave behind Peg?
Trump… the bastard just added a 10% increase in cost to our Europe holiday…
Aussie .55 against euro
Trump is a genius … an unparalleled stable genius…
Is USD up or down compared to EUR in the last month?
The USD/EUR rate is down -4.06%. This means the US Dollar has decreased in value compared to the Euro.
Is USD up or down compared to EUR in the last year?
The USD/EUR rate is down -6.11%. This means the US Dollar has decreased in value compared to the Euro.
Falling off the cliff
I guess that makes US treasury bonds less attractive?
Leftie
I trace the issue with the NSW doctors, and, indeed most NSW public servants , to Minns’ payback to Hayes by giving 25% to the Ambos. It is dangerous to advantage one group over all others.
The workload of being a doctor is heavy but the industrial rulings have decreased the workload markedly in the last 10 years. At the same time the profession has become increasingly feminised and undergone generational change; what was accepted as a normal workload is now seen as inhuman.
All part of the complex issues in the medical work force. Expect disruptions to continue.
Centre @ #595 Sunday, April 13th, 2025 – 6:49 pm
Dutton loses his seat, like Howard and Abbott
Long time bludger here, been largely absent since the last election. I see Bushfire Bill is back from solitary confinement. His posts were worth the entry price alone. Cant say this election has got me too excited.
Will probably vote ALP, but I wish they’d get up to speed on women’s rights, safe spaces, fair sports etc. And I hope Butler is genuine in his recent statement about looking further into the nonsense that is gender affirming care (like his Labour colleagues in the UK and elsewhere in Europe)
As for the rest: The Greens have lost their way entirely. How a so called progressive party can’t see through Hamas is beyond me. Family First, harmless god botherers, the Libs, Trumpet mob and One Nation – Trump lite.