Yesterday marked the declaration of nominations, with ballot paper draws conducted and candidates lists published. The Poll Bludger election guide has duly been updated with full candidate lists for both House and Senate. Labor and the Greens are as usual fielding candidates in all seats, while the Coalition parties have 157 candidates between them — of the seven three-cornered contest, probably only the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel is of interest. The total number of lower house candidates is down from 1203 to 1126, or 7.96 candidates per seat to 7.51. Leading the pack are Calwell and Riverina with 13 each, which in the former case could deepen an already complex situation with a high informal vote.
At the other end of the scale, Fenner, Bean, Perth and Maribyrnong will have to make do with four. A contributor in the first two cases is that only the three Australian Capital Territory seats are spared One Nation candidates. Whereas the United Australia Party had a full complement in 2022, Trumpet of Patriots has only 100 candidates, followed by Family First on 92, Libertarians on 46 and Legalise Cannabis on 42. The 2022 result seems to have encouraged independents, who are up in number from 98 to 132.
The pace of decline in Senate nominations has quickened as aspirants acclimatise to the fact that preference harvesting is no longer a thing, providing relief to both voters and the Australian Electoral Commission in terms of the size of the ballot papers. The total number of candidates has fallen progressively from 458 in 2019 to 421 in 2022 to 330 in 2025, while the total number of groups across all states and territories is down from 151 in 2022 to 118. The Australian Electoral Commission has also published final enrolment statistics as of the close of the roll on Monday. There are 18,098,797 voters on the roll, a 5.1% increase on the 17,213,433 enrolled in 2022, which was in turn a 4.8% increase on 2019.
Polling latest:
• The News Corp papers today carry the third wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research marginal seat tracking poll, targeting 20 seats that had an average Labor two-party vote of 51.0% in 2022, as adjusted for redistributions. As such, its Labor lead of 52.5-47.5 might be considered the government’s most encouraging result of the campaign so far, comparing with Coalition leads of 52-48 in the February 4-11 wave and 50.5-49.5 from February 20-25. The Coalition primary vote has progressively sunk from 43% to 41% to 36%, but the dividend has gone almost entirely to “others” — Labor scored 33% in the first wave, 34% in the second and 35% in this one, while the Greens have been steady on 12% throughout. Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating has progressed from minus 16 to minus 11 to minus 8, while Peter Dutton has gone from minus 11 to minus 17 (or so I infer — the result published for the second poll combined the first two waves) to minus 16. One bright spot for the Coalition is that their supporters continue to register greater firmness in their intention, with 38% rating themselves merely soft or leaning compared with 57% for Labor. Albanese also had only 18% viewing his handling of the Trump administration’s tariffs favourably, compared with 40% for unfavourably. The poll was conducted last Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1003.
• The News Corp papers report three sets of claims regarding internal polling in Dickson, with the Coalition saying their own polling by Freshwater Strategy has Peter Dutton leading Labor’s Ali France 57-43; Climate 200 offering uComms polling showing France leading 51.7-48.3; and Labor polling “understood” to have it at 50-50. Also “understood” is that Dutton’s campaign has spent $40,000 on advertising attacking Climate 200-backed independent Ellie Smith. Further, Samantha Maiden of news.com.au provides, in rather more detail, a separate uComms poll, this one for the Queensland Conservation Council, showing Labor leading 52-48, with primary votes of 37.6% for Dutton, 24.2% for France, 12.0% for Smith, 10.9% for the Greens, 4.6% for others and 10.8% undecided. The poll was freshly conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 854.
• The Australian reports polling conducted for Climate 200 has teal independent Sue Chapman with a 51-49 lead over Liberal candidate Ben Small in the regional Western Australian seat of Forrest, where Liberal incumbent Nola Marino is retiring. The primary vote question recorded 34% support for Small and 20% for Chapman along with an unspecified undecided component, of which 27% favoured Chapman and 18% Small when prompted with a follow-up question. An unidentified Liberal MP is quoted saying the party was “not alarmed yet, but we’re anxious”.
• Local news outlet Pulse Tasmania reports a uComms poll for the Australian Forest Products Association shows a tight race in the key Tasmanian seat of Lyons, with Labor candidate Rebecca White leading 50.9-49.1 over Liberal candidate Susie Bowers. The primary votes are Labor 27.2%, Liberal 29.5%, Greens 14.6%, Jacqui Lambie Network 5.8% and One Nation 4.1%, with 13.1% undecided.
Thanks, sprocket_ 🙂
Cat
Thanks for the morning roundup – outstanding. Between the news coverage and William’s updated polling things are not going well for the Dutton campaign.
I said earlier this week I thought the Dutton campaign had seemed “unprepared”. Laura Tingle outlines my concerns better than I did myself:
“You might think that there is a lot of media focus on Peter Dutton and the Coalition, and not so much on the government so far in this campaign. You might even notice a lack of any serious coverage of alternative policy positions on major issues. That’s because most of the government’s policies are out there, whether you like them or not, along with the details, while most of the Coalition’s aren’t.
By Laura Tingle”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-12/coalition-policy-lack-of-detail-anthony-albanese-fall/105165142
I still don’t know for sure if Albo will win a majority, but Dutton can’t win even a minority with his current offering. He chose a very bad time to imitate Trump.
Sports Rorts 2.0 in Deakin – so far Michael Sukkar has promised.
$200,000 towards new tiered spectator seating at Cheong Park (South Croydon)
$40,000 for new CCTV at Dorset Recreation Reserve (Croydon City Soccer Club)
$651,000 for a covered outdoor netball court with lighting for use by Croydon Hills Netball Club and new synthetic pitch and nets for Warranwood Sharks cricket club.
$4 million for a new sporting ground and sporting pavilion at Davy Lane Reserve.
$1.5 million for a covered outdoor netball and basketball facility at Holy Spirit Community School.
$1.5 million upgrading the facilities at Hughes Park in North Croydon
A new double story pavilion at Quambee Reserve in North Ringwood.
An additional synthetic soccer pitch for Ringwood City Soccer club and Aquinas College
A new pavilion at North Ringwood Reserve
$2 million to construct roofing to cover three outdoor courts at the Maroondah Nets
I make that out to be somewhere in the order of $20Million worth of projects. How well is your seat doing???
Car imports in a mess.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkGoN3IFcuo
Thanks C@t. Hartcher doesn’t hold back, does he?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-politics-of-grievance-was-a-winner-for-trump-it-s-not-working-for-dutton-20250411-p5lr0x.html
Thanks C@t,
The Independent nails it wrt Trump. I read it yesterday and it’s rather frightening.
Scro@8.17
Boy, on the Koolaid very early to day mate……But, re your “shake up” comment…..bring it on!
Just under 3 million of our population are between the ages of 18 and 25 (‘school leavers?) and would be falling over themselves to give up 12 months of their life for……………..what?
The death penalty I think would not get up either and in any7 case, the question would have to be resolved at the State level – not Federal.
However, I would just love the LNP and Dutton to go down this track. Ten seats in Nationals land and maybe an average of 2 seats per Oz capital city means the LNP with say 25 and 35 members at best.
What a stroke of genius!
Why don’t you emigrate to North Korea?
I believe all your wishes would come true up there.
Your best suggestion ever!
The lying Bass non-struggling Liberal with his 10 properties can be added to the lying actually-a-landlord Amelia Hamer Liberal in Kooyong. A pattern forms. A general willingness to try and look like they have empathy through deception to make up for not actually having it.
Dutton doesn’t lie about his fortune, but he certainly plays it down a lot relative to the more working class story of being a cop. These candidates just take it a step further.
I’d add that Trunp isn’t a meritocracy POTUS. He doesn’t want success based on merit – even or especially so wrt business. So he’ll be happy if the efficient market becomes a crony market. Crony Capitalism existed to some extent but this will go much further. There will be winners and losers based on Trump likes and dislikes – loyalties and pizzo. And the pie shrinks.
The market isn’t going to accept and take it all in at once. Rocky time ahead for the share market.
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 7:22 am
Bass Liberal candidate who said he struggled every day, turns out average Joe owns $5m property portfolio.
https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/8940254/braddon-candidates-property-portfolio-revealed/?cs=87
You mean Braddon Liberal candidate?
An awful lot of legacy media commentators seem to have been caught out by the fact that the Dutton faction of the Libs have been outsourcing all their thinking to American conservatives for years now. They attend that mindless cpac conference every year and watch Sky After Dark and read internet silos dedicated to that shit and then they regurgitate it. It’s not new. These commentators just haven’t paid attention or tried to hold Dutton to account any earlier, so they have failed to notice that beyond the nuclear thought bubble which exists entirely to undermine investment in renewables for ideological reasons, Dutton has no policies that aren’t just regurgitating Trump or me-tooing Labor.
And now the electorate has tuned in, they’ve begun noticing too.
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 7:44 am
Unpaywalled story about poor little rich Bass Lib candidate.
”
MI
Again, It is poor little rich Braddon Lib candidate.
Living in Tasmania, you cannot make the same mistake twice. 🙂
More presumptive capitulations in the legal sector. Don’t they realise that when you stand up to Trump and stare him down he backs off?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/11/trump-law-firms-deals-orders/
Trumpism works for Trump because he’s built a cult of personality in a market already predisposed to loving culture wars by the large pre-indoctrinated evangelical Christian population.
Peter Dutton will never have a cult of personality and Australia doesn’t have the religious right population he would need to make it work.
If not for the persistent rusted on belief in Liberal economic management built by past generations of Liberals Dutton would be miles behind.
More Chinese tariff memes.
As you can see, there’s more than one heavy hitting commentator this week questioning Dutton’s bona fides.
Housing a federal labor government social disaster mass rental poverty,homelessness and still labor brings in record numbers of international students says ABS.
Labor are globalist like the sick Democrats in the United States sadly they also think their citizens are deplorable.
Albanese and labor ministers should rent out their holiday houses not leaving them empty as Aussies are homeless due to them.
Albo loves communist human rights abusing China and so does labor.
‘Fess,.
Those law firms should realise that, ‘It’s better to die on your feet, than live on your knees.’
Interesting what legal rules might apply to governments working together to sell US bonds to pressure Trump.
Would think in the middle of tariff economic war from Trump that self protection is ok. But would be no surprise to see some sort of conspiracy case mounted in US courts. Remember the forever Kheimlani conspiracy case against Whitlam ministers. Went on for years.
Equally perhaps some sort of action against Trump and his mob for actions damaging particular interests.
Peter Hartcher damning about the Liberal campaign in the Nine papers today, also a good interview with Albanese.
The Liberal insiders think they can pick up between 6 and 15 seats.
“Democracy Sausagesays:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 9:13 am
The Liberal insiders think they can pick up between 6 and 15 seats.”
This is pure grist for the morale of the base
From C@tmomma’s DP
”
The politics of grievance was a winner for Trump. It’s not working for Dutton. By Peter Hartcher
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-politics-of-grievance-was-a-winner-for-trump-it-s-not-working-for-dutton-20250411-p5lr0x.html
”
From the article
““They didn’t do enough to define Dutton before the starter’s gun was fired,” says former Labor campaigner and now Redbridge director Kos Samaras. “They should have started a year ago. They’ve allowed their opponent to define him.”
This is emblematic of the Coalition’s unreadiness. Its ads could be better if it had more policy to advertise. But which policy? Last week’s policy against letting public servants work from home or this week’s policy of allowing it?
And which policy of cutting government spending? Last year’s one to sack 41,000 public servants immediately, or last week’s one to allow the 41,000 to leave more gradually through natural attrition and redundancies? Or the last hour’s one, which appears to leave room for all three options?”
Another thing that caught my eye is
In the first 3 months of Trump 2.0, Trump “wanton destruction” of USA.
Ven, anything north of Bridgewater is bandit territory.
Sportsbet odds, this one is for C@t – Labor favourite to win in Robertson.
This could be the election where recycled Liberal candidates from previous elections don’t do too well this time – Lucy Wicks, Andrew Constance, Tim Wilson etc
Be interesting to see if the Murdoch press give up their full court press in support of Dutton in next couple of weeks. Probably not till right at the end. They don’t like losers. We really do suffer from the Murdoch right wing nuttery.
C@tmomma @ #66 Saturday, April 12th, 2025 – 9:10 am
Absolutely!
Tanya P forced to eat a massive shit sandwich on ABC News breakfast this morning
Claiming Strahan would be ‘destroyed’ by the loss of the salmon industry (it’s 60 jobs, so the claim is a straight up lie) and without actually saying the words implying there was no agreement with SHY on the nature positive laws. Both issues were Albo overriding her in craven capitulation to vested interests
CNBC: US Consumer confidence plummeted by 11% to its lowest since 1952( no it is not a typo), I repeat since 1952.
Economist: The main rationale for the Trump Tariffs is to force foreign leaders to grovel to Trump (aka kiss my ass)
Just planning g for the next 10 years – do we see Albo handing over to Jim in 2027 or will Jim have to do it Keating style ? After 3 terms from Jim, hope Labor’s talent pool unearths talent for another 3 terms.
Coalition and a collectivised Teals will be splitting seats for next 20 years.
Oh I’ve bought some Hawke’s Lager for May 3rd in celebration.
The USD has been smashed. Although the AUD looks stronger at 62 cents, it looks horrible against the EUR and GBP. I am guessing there will be less European travel by Australians.
The betting markets have shifted Bigly as the polls have moved to Labor. Suggested Lib Nat gains approaching zero. Lib Nat seats with small margins probably next to tighten up or move.
I’m guessing the dirt campaign of lies will surface 1/2 weeks prior to polling day making it difficult for the ALP to respond effectively.
Could it be that Duttons campaign had been choreographed around Trump’s talking points & when that blew up it left Dutts floundering with no strategy??
It’s been eerily quiet of particularly with Dutts heading in the wrong direction.
Sportbet has now Labor ahead by a fraction in Bullwinkel. Tangney their favorites, and Moore there still quite competitive.
Bullwinkel
Labor: $1.80
Liberal: $1.87
Tangney
Labor: $1.41
Liberal: $2.62
Moore:
Labor: $3.10
Liberal: $1:49
From AZ
Liberal party of Australia also wants to do the same thing if it comes to power in Australia. Make no mistake about that
True Believersays:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 9:30 am
Just planning g for the next 10 years – do we see Albo handing over to Jim in 2027 or will Jim have to do it Keating style ? After 3 terms from Jim, hope Labor’s talent pool unearths talent for another 3 term.
——
Suspect Albo will handover to Jim about halfway through the next term.
@C@t – it’s probably easier to say that when the President of the United States with his tame judges and his goons disappearing people to El Salvador are not threatening to destroy your business, destroy you and make your family destitute. Maybe some of these firms would make a different choice this month after seeing the cracks already start to appear, but I’m not going to be TOO down on people who are threatened into bending the knee in reprisal.
Peter Hartcher’s piece today is excellent, and particularly telling given in his pet area of international relations and security he has been fairly scathing in recent times of the government.
Personally, I think the Coalition leadership has paid much too much attention to “advice” provided by some of their major donors who were all aboard the Trump Express. But Dutton alone owns the responsibility for the complete lack of policy going into an election.
Revealed: nearly 2m hectares of koala habitat bulldozed since 2011 – despite political promises to protect species
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/12/koala-habitat-destroyed-since-2011-analysis
____________________
If you’re appalled by this then say so with your vote.
”
ScromoIIsays:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 8:17 am
It’s time for the Coalition to make a big announcement to shake up the campaign. A referendum on the death penalty. A one year compulsory national service for all school leavers.
”
You want to kill the LNP chances of winning the election stone cold dead? 🙂
I say bring it on. I encourage Dutton announce those things that you recommended.
Do I feed the sulphur crescent cockies on my deck or not feed them? They haven’t started to destroy anything yet. Will Feeding them avoid this or make it more likely?
When you lose an industry it’s more than the frontline employees.
Supply chains & tourism take a hit.
It helps to take into account the population ratio & future employment prospects.
Dee @ #81 Saturday, April 12th, 2025 – 9:37 am
Gina the Hutt’s Spivs & Goons have no shit worth slinging. Woke is going to swallow them and their pathetic marketing scam whole.
The MSM has really dropped the ball in virtually ignoring the NACC sham.
We are poorly served.
”
sprocket_says:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 8:33 am
C@t
Not really Muslim vote – the impact of Indian migrants was discussed, with the strong view that they voted with their locale. So further towards The Hills the Indians would vote Liberal, and closer to Mt Druitt it was all Labor.
”
Then why do I vote Labor or preference ALP over LNP when I live in Liberal party seat? 🙂
You don’t need to outright ban salmon farms in Macquarie Harbour. Just regulate it properly in a sustainable way that preserves the local environment.
PW
Not overly optimistic about Bullwinkel despite it being nominally a Labor seat. Labor has to come in ahead of both the conservative candidates and even then, goodness only knows where preference will go. In WA in three cornered Labor-Liberal-Nationals competitions are that much harder for Labor. The demographics of the seat seem to be essentially split between the three parties.
On another WA note, Dutton has been in town – though who would know if it were not for the West newspaper.
In relation to the latter, the best it could come up with today was mostly social page stuff of all the Liberal crew having a knees-up at some Liberal do.
I just get the sense, despite the obvious editorial support for Dutton in the West, that there is not a lot of joy as yet in that camp.
Tinges now of “Dutton must recalibrate” and “Dutton will make WA Great” stuff.
”
ScromoIIsays:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 8:17 am
It’s time for the Coalition to make a big announcement to shake up the campaign. A referendum on the death penalty. A one year compulsory national service for all school leavers.
”
You want to kill the LNP chances of winning the election stone cold dead?
I say bring it on. I encourage Dutton announce those things that you recommended.
I took ScromoII’s comment as an attempt at humor.
Ven
You are on the same tram as me with your comments about Scro some posts earlier.
You have to call this trolling extreme right-wing stuff from time to time even though you know it is click bait.
Gina the Hutt’s Spivs & Goons have no shit worth slinging. Woke is going to swallow them and their pathetic marketing scam whole.
@rhwombat
Doubt Gina will be involved with the rest of the campaign. Its been reported her and Peter Dutton have had a fallout. While Gina has said their still friends- it been suggested she has cooled over a Dutton Prime Minstership.