Federal election minus three weeks: marginal seats poll, declaration of nominations and more (open thread)

Fewer candidates nominate than in 2022, especially for the Senate, as a new poll records a collective swing in Labor’s favour across 20 marginal seats.

Yesterday marked the declaration of nominations, with ballot paper draws conducted and candidates lists published. The Poll Bludger election guide has duly been updated with full candidate lists for both House and Senate. Labor and the Greens are as usual fielding candidates in all seats, while the Coalition parties have 157 candidates between them — of the seven three-cornered contest, probably only the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel is of interest. The total number of lower house candidates is down from 1203 to 1126, or 7.96 candidates per seat to 7.51. Leading the pack are Calwell and Riverina with 13 each, which in the former case could deepen an already complex situation with a high informal vote.

At the other end of the scale, Fenner, Bean, Perth and Maribyrnong will have to make do with four. A contributor in the first two cases is that only the three Australian Capital Territory seats are spared One Nation candidates. Whereas the United Australia Party had a full complement in 2022, Trumpet of Patriots has only 100 candidates, followed by Family First on 92, Libertarians on 46 and Legalise Cannabis on 42. The 2022 result seems to have encouraged independents, who are up in number from 98 to 132.

The pace of decline in Senate nominations has quickened as aspirants acclimatise to the fact that preference harvesting is no longer a thing, providing relief to both voters and the Australian Electoral Commission in terms of the size of the ballot papers. The total number of candidates has fallen progressively from 458 in 2019 to 421 in 2022 to 330 in 2025, while the total number of groups across all states and territories is down from 151 in 2022 to 118. The Australian Electoral Commission has also published final enrolment statistics as of the close of the roll on Monday. There are 18,098,797 voters on the roll, a 5.1% increase on the 17,213,433 enrolled in 2022, which was in turn a 4.8% increase on 2019.

Polling latest:

• The News Corp papers today carry the third wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research marginal seat tracking poll, targeting 20 seats that had an average Labor two-party vote of 51.0% in 2022, as adjusted for redistributions. As such, its Labor lead of 52.5-47.5 might be considered the government’s most encouraging result of the campaign so far, comparing with Coalition leads of 52-48 in the February 4-11 wave and 50.5-49.5 from February 20-25. The Coalition primary vote has progressively sunk from 43% to 41% to 36%, but the dividend has gone almost entirely to “others” — Labor scored 33% in the first wave, 34% in the second and 35% in this one, while the Greens have been steady on 12% throughout. Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating has progressed from minus 16 to minus 11 to minus 8, while Peter Dutton has gone from minus 11 to minus 17 (or so I infer — the result published for the second poll combined the first two waves) to minus 16. One bright spot for the Coalition is that their supporters continue to register greater firmness in their intention, with 38% rating themselves merely soft or leaning compared with 57% for Labor. Albanese also had only 18% viewing his handling of the Trump administration’s tariffs favourably, compared with 40% for unfavourably. The poll was conducted last Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1003.

• The News Corp papers report three sets of claims regarding internal polling in Dickson, with the Coalition saying their own polling by Freshwater Strategy has Peter Dutton leading Labor’s Ali France 57-43; Climate 200 offering uComms polling showing France leading 51.7-48.3; and Labor polling “understood” to have it at 50-50. Also “understood” is that Dutton’s campaign has spent $40,000 on advertising attacking Climate 200-backed independent Ellie Smith. Further, Samantha Maiden of news.com.au provides, in rather more detail, a separate uComms poll, this one for the Queensland Conservation Council, showing Labor leading 52-48, with primary votes of 37.6% for Dutton, 24.2% for France, 12.0% for Smith, 10.9% for the Greens, 4.6% for others and 10.8% undecided. The poll was freshly conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 854.

• The Australian reports polling conducted for Climate 200 has teal independent Sue Chapman with a 51-49 lead over Liberal candidate Ben Small in the regional Western Australian seat of Forrest, where Liberal incumbent Nola Marino is retiring. The primary vote question recorded 34% support for Small and 20% for Chapman along with an unspecified undecided component, of which 27% favoured Chapman and 18% Small when prompted with a follow-up question. An unidentified Liberal MP is quoted saying the party was “not alarmed yet, but we’re anxious”.

• Local news outlet Pulse Tasmania reports a uComms poll for the Australian Forest Products Association shows a tight race in the key Tasmanian seat of Lyons, with Labor candidate Rebecca White leading 50.9-49.1 over Liberal candidate Susie Bowers. The primary votes are Labor 27.2%, Liberal 29.5%, Greens 14.6%, Jacqui Lambie Network 5.8% and One Nation 4.1%, with 13.1% undecided.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

584 comments on “Federal election minus three weeks: marginal seats poll, declaration of nominations and more (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 12
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  2. Ps – if any politician in Australia can get in any news I see here with Trump rampant I will report back. Would have to be something extraordinary. PMs getting dumped by their own parties would have just made it I think.

  3. The marginal seats polling suggests that a swing is certainly on. This being the case, the questions are how many seats will the Reactionaries lose and who will they lose them to?

  6. Dark Arts. Notice on the Australian web connection to Redbridge related article the face of Dutton shown is bright and open. Albanese by contrast is half in shade and somewhat turned away. Clearly that is deliberate by the Murdoch media.

  8. I was reliably informed by a well placed corridor crawler in the NSW moderates who sits close to the throne in the house of Payne-Aryres that their own internal weekly small sample for Gilmore was 50-50 compared to my own commissioned data with a comparative capture period of 50.9-49.1 to Philips.

    This would indeed suggest that the swing is on. Naturally we’ll get the same conga line of drones here today revising their Labor prospects to low 60s- high 50s .

    The Labor state execs and campaign managers across this wide, brown unpleasant land are daring to dream and are being given extra pocket money to go about this. The ACTU is having a meeting this afternoon with all of its big swinging dicks to mull over a once in a generation opening of the vault like they did in 2007 to find labor’s anti-workchoices campaign.

    They see this as a similarly rare opportunity to try and go for goal and leave nothing on the table. The libs and cunts are losing much of their big corporate benefactors this time around, with institutional multinationals giving them rhe middle finger with all the haemorrhaging trump is causing them.

    I cannot stress just how dire and terminal the Dutton and LNP is at this juncture. They’ve got nothing left to peddle, a highly unpopular leader, a fractured circle jerk of a policy manifesto and have almost run out of money to fund the last 3 weeks of this campaign. 83 seats. 83 seats.

    William if you are awake would you please be able to post a link to Simon’s last Gilmore survey he ran that was done early this week?. It would be really helpful as I need to get something done but require the data C200 did.

  12. I was reliably informed by a well placed corridor crawler in the NSW moderates who sits close to the throne in the house of Payne-Aryres that their own internal weekly small sample for Gilmore was 50-50 compared to my own commissioned data with a comparative capture period of 50.9-49.1 to Philips.

    This would indeed suggest that the swing is on. Naturally we’ll get the same conga line of drones here today revising their Labor prospects to low 60s- high 50s . The Labor state execs and campaign managers across this wide, brown unpleasant land are daring to dream and are being given extra pocket money to go about this. The ACTU is having a meeting this afternoon with all of its big swinging dks to mull over a once in a generation opening of the vault like they did in 2007 to find labor’s anti-workchoices campaign. They see this as a similarly rare opportunity to try and go for goal and leave nothing on the table.

    The libs and cnts are losing much of their big corporate benefactors this time around, with institutional multinationals giving them rhe middle finger with all the haemorrhaging trump is causing them. I cannot stress just how dire and terminal the Dutton and LNP is at this juncture. They’ve got nothing left to peddle, a highly unpopular leader, a fractured circle jerk of a policy manifesto and have almost run out of money to fund the last 3 weeks of this campaign. 83 seats. 83 seats. William if you are awake would you please be able to post a link to Simon’s last Gilmore survey he ran that was done early this week?. It would be really helpful as I need to get something done but require the data C200 did.

  14. Bob Lynch.
    Just read your 3.24pm (Friday) regarding the CCC and the Lying Rodent event.
    I know a couple of friends and myself who would have loved to arena this event, to ask some deep questions regarding CLP policies.

  16. William, sorry to be nitpicky but in your profile on the seat of Lindsay you say the Great Eastern Highway runs through the middle of the electorate.
    It’s actually called the Great Western Highway.

  17. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Trump Admin Considering Giving $10,000 To Each Person In Greenland To Annex The Island
    The plan would replace the $600 million in subsidies Denmark gives the island each year: https://www.latintimes.com/trump-admin-considering-giving-10000-each-person-greenland-annex-island-580455

    Europe Considers Lifting Tariffs On Chinese Cars In Favor Of Fixed Minimum Prices: https://www.jalopnik.com/1831657/europe-considers-lifting-chinese-ev-tariffs/

    EU to Trump on tariffs: We’ll retaliate when we’re ready, not when you tweet: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-to-trump-on-tariffs-well-retaliate-when-were-ready-not-when-you-tweet/

    Allies pledge ‘record’ $23.8 billion to Ukraine at Ramstein summit as UK warns 2025 will be ‘critical’: https://kyivindependent.com/nato-allies-pledge-23-8-billion-in-long-term-military-aid-to-ukraine-at-ramstein-summit/

    UK reportedly considers deploying its troops to Ukraine for five years: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/04/11/7507054/

    India will not negotiate with Trump: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/we-never-negotiate-at-gunpoint-india-after-donald-trump-hits-90-day-pause-on-tariffs/articleshow/120206018.cms

    Parliament will be recalled for a rare Saturday sitting to pass an emergency law aimed at saving British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant from imminent closure: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx20jr8rjj2o

    MAGA Beekeeper Admits Trump Tariffs Have Cost Him Half His Business: https://www.thedailybeast.com/maga-beekeeper-admits-trump-tariffs-have-cost-him-half-his-business/

    Trump DOJ Refuses to Comply With Judge’s Order on Return of Wrongly Deported Dad: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-doj-refuses-to-comply-with-judges-order-to-return-wrongly-deported-dad-kilmar-abrego-garcia/

    Judge says it’s ‘extremely troubling’ Trump administration cannot tell her location of deported man: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/judge-says-its-extremely-troubling-trump-administration-cannot-tell-her-location-of-deported-man

    Trump brags in Oval Office that his billionaire pals made a killing in stocks after he pulled the plug on tariffs: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-billionaire-profits-dropped-tariffs-b2731386.html

    Marjorie Taylor Greene Faces ‘Insider Trading’ Probe Calls Over Stock Buys: https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-faces-calls-insider-trading-probe-stock-buys-donald-trump-tariffs-2058469

    Freak sell-off of ‘safe haven’ US bonds raises fear that confidence in America is fading: https://apnews.com/article/treasurys-bond-market-yield-tariff-46b4818710f01b8cc93fd002081167b0

    Trump Gets More Bad News as Consumer Confidence Plummets: https://newrepublic.com/post/193916/trump-consumer-confidence-poll

    State tells employees to report on one another for ‘anti-Christian bias’: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/11/state-report-anti-christian-bias-033535

    Trump Scores Massive Win as Judge Rules He Can Deport Mahmoud Khalil: https://newrepublic.com/post/193938/donald-trump-mahmoud-khalil-deportation

    Trump orders probes of two former officials who defied him: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-orders-probes-two-former-officials-defied-rcna200523

    Mortgage rates surge over 7% as tariffs hit bond market: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/mortgage-rates-surge-tariffs-bond-market.html

  19. Howdy outside left!. Regarding Fiona campaign work ethic is her secret sauce and the reason why those in the know were never going to panic about the seat. I out a gorilla on her when she was 5.50/1 on sports bet- she’s now only 2.40 or something.

    Should be a good weekend for it outside left. Don’t forget coffee club this morning and the prepoll roster planing lol! Sadly I have to go to Sydney today but if anyone wants to drive the campaign beast around I left the keys with the king. She’s all done up with the livery etc. I’ve been enjoying driving it around the main streets and nothing more satisfying than the look on some old boomer’s face as the shake their head and grimace in disapproval when you pass then by. I’m getting a speaker and PA system installed on her early next week and then the real fun will start.

  22. Sonar you are failing to see things from the perspective of others who may see and interpret things differently to you.

    From William’s perspective in Perth it would look eastern.

  23. Peter Schiff on twitter (global financial analyst)

    The 2025 Financial Crisis will not be global. It will be mainly limited to the United States. The rest of the world has finally been liberated.

  24. Morning all. Thanks for the polling updates William, very informtive!

    LeftieBrawler I am not surprised there has been something of a split amongst business backers of the LNP.

    Embracing Trumpism is a very high risk strategy from the viewpoint of Australian business. Apart from the coal and gas industries, most Australian businesses face reduced export volumes from an increasingly isolationist USA. Why would any business fund that??

  26. Q : The 2025 Financial Crisis will not be global. It will be mainly limited to the United States. The rest of the world has finally been liberated.

    Agreed. There is no global trade war- there is a US trade war with the world. USA versus 200 countries. It is easy to spot the (eventual) winner.

  28. Excellent overnight session on USA stock markets.

    Monday will bounce back in Australia mind you our links to China by the failed labor government will mean not by as much. Good news keeps coming 3 weeks to go in Aus Albanese and labors support is weak as and can be swung back to liberals.

    Not a bad week this week by coalition stabilised marred by events overseas.

    Australia in Jan/feb this year is running a goods surplus with the USA of 3.563 billion.

    Us census bereau -goods trade with Australia.

    Next major Aus economy stat is next Thurs- employment.

    Below is fake news USA tariffs are not suspended on China.

  30. Another tweet from Peter Schiff

    ———-
    Could Trump’s “Liberation Day” be less about America First… and more about global independence? If the rest of the world stops subsidizing the U.S. with cheap goods and endless debt purchases, emerging markets might finally break free.

  31. Great read Victoria. Thank you.

    The Great Eastern Highway is, of course, the main road heading east from Perth! We can forgive our leader a little early morning befuddlement.

  32. From memory the 20 marginal seats don’t include any the Greens are competitive in so it’s encouraging to see them consistently hiting 12% in them. Suggests they are polling a lot higher in their target seats because they’ll be a lower in some others.

    I would love to see some seat polling in Bean, Calwell and Fremantle. All seats to watch imo

    Given the polling in Dickson is it time to roll out the “Vote Dutton get Sussan” ads?

  33. sonarsays:
    Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 7:05 am
    [William, sorry to be nitpicky but in your profile on the seat of Lindsay you say the Great Eastern Highway runs through the middle of the electorate.
    It’s actually called the Great Western Highway.]

    Politics is a two way street.

  34. Insiders -Sunday, 13 Apr -9:01 AM – 10:29 ( NOTE 88 Min )

    David Speers discusses the second week of the campaign with Patricia Karvelas, Michael Stutchbury and James Massola including tariffs, trade and the global economy, energy and gas policy plus the debate and campaign launches.

    Guests : Campaign Special – Clare O’neil And Monique Ryan

  35. Good Morning! Here’s Your Final Week 2 Daily News and Views Roundup.

    He’s careful, stable – even prosaic. But Albanese may just have nailed the mood. There is a sharpness to Anthony Albanese, in contrast to the candidate who couldn’t recall the cash rate on the first day of his last campaign. Three years in the top job have hardened him – but he’s still the person who knows how much work is ahead. By Chip Le Grand
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/he-s-careful-stable-even-prosaic-but-albanese-may-just-have-nailed-the-mood-20250405-p5lpgr.html

    Trump’s made nationalism great again, just not in America. How quickly the vibe shift has shifted again.
    The populist rightward realignment, heralded by US President Donald Trump’s return to power, has been met internationally with an anti-Trump counterblast. By Nick Bryant
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-made-nationalism-great-again-just-not-in-america-20250411-p5lqyh.html

    The politics of grievance was a winner for Trump. It’s not working for Dutton. By Peter Hartcher
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-politics-of-grievance-was-a-winner-for-trump-it-s-not-working-for-dutton-20250411-p5lr0x.html

    Judith Brett: Peter Dutton’s amateur hour on policy
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/04/12/peter-duttons-amateur-hour-policy

    Paul Bongiorno: How to blow up a campaign in two easy steps
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/04/11/how-blow-campaign-two-easy-steps

    Dutton’s backflipping and clumsy delivery has him spiralling in the polls. What happened? At a time of global disruption, voters seem to want a calm hand on the tiller, not ‘punch-drunk’ policy on the run
    Malcolm Farr
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/12/duttons-backflipping-and-clumsy-delivery-has-him-spiralling-in-the-polls-what-happened

    You might think that there is a lot of media focus on Peter Dutton and the Coalition, and not so much on the government so far in this campaign. You might even notice a lack of any serious coverage of alternative policy positions on major issues. That’s because most of the government’s policies are out there, whether you like them or not, along with the details, while most of the Coalition’s aren’t.
    By Laura Tingle
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-12/coalition-policy-lack-of-detail-anthony-albanese-fall/105165142

    Stubborn or resolute: Anthony Albanese’s lifelong political instinct faces final judgment
    By Paul Daley
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2025/apr/12/australian-election-2025-anthony-albanese-political-instinct-voter-judgment

    It’s week two of Peter Dutton’s campaign and (almost) everything is tightly scripted. The Coalition leader muzzles the press pack in a way Albanese often struggles to achieve – after a train wreck opening week, he’s taking back control. By Sarah Basford Canales
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/12/its-week-two-of-peter-duttons-campaign-and-almost-everything-is-tightly-scripted

    Back to Back Barries: can Dutton save his campaign?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2025/apr/11/back-to-back-barries-can-dutton-save-his-campaign

    Election 2025: Week 2 breakdown. The Mckell Institute
    https://mckellinstitute.org.au/election-2025-week-2-breakdown/

    A small target has suddenly got bigger. Attacking the government might have given the Coalition some easy wins over the past three years, but does it add up to an election strategy? Karen Middleton
    https://insidestory.org.au/a-small-target-has-suddenly-got-bigger/

    Dutton tight-lipped over how many voluntary redundancies would be offered in public service cuts plan. Opposition under pressure to release secret modelling and costings revealing how it plans to downsize the public service by 41,000 jobs by 2030
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/11/dutton-tight-lipped-over-how-many-voluntary-redundancies-would-be-offered-in-public-service-cuts-plan

    Exclusive: David Pocock’s demands of a minority government. By Karen Barlow
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/04/12/exclusive-david-pococks-demands-minority-government

    Independent MP Allegra Spender paid agency for influencers’ posts.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/allegra-spender-paid-agency-for-influencer-posts-election-2025/105168154

    Shadow Indigenous Minister Jacinta Nampijinpa Price fronts up to protests by Noongar people in Bunbury
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/jacinta-price-in-bunbury-noongar-protest/105166310

    Police confirm report of two offensive signs targeting Bruce MP Julian Hill, who is gay, hung on overpass bridge
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/11/police-remove-hate-based-homophobic-banners-targeting-melbourne-labor-mp-julian-hill-ntwnfb

    Federal election battle for NT seat of Lingiari set to be fought on a knife’s edge
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/federal-election-battle-in-nt-lingiari-seat/105073390

    Liberal candidate co-authored inquiry submission suggesting Hazaras not persecuted for ethnicity in Afghanistan Exclusive: Zahid Safi, who is running in Melbourne seat of Bruce, listed as last author on 2021 Senate submission which says victims of Afghanistan war ‘not based on ethnicity’
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/12/liberal-candidate-co-authored-inquiry-submission-suggesting-hazaras-not-persecuted-for-ethnicity-in-afghanistan-ntwnfb

    There is mixed reaction in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley to the Coalition’s proposal to build a nuclear reactor in the region. While some say a nuclear power plant will help secure the prosperity of the region, others are backing wind and solar.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/latrobe-valley-divided-over-peter-dutton-nuclear-plan/105163106

    The Coalition’s proposal to direct gas for export to the domestic market has support from those who favour cuts to production – but that’s not what the plan envisages. By Mike Seccombe.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/economy/2025/04/12/the-coalitions-bright-idea-gas

    China’s Finance Ministry said Beijing would no longer go tit-for-tat with the Trump administration in the tariff war, saying further increases would have “no economic significance” and the United States stood to “become a joke in the history of the world economy”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-fires-back-at-us-with-tariff-hike-to-125-percent-20250411-p5lr5u.html

    Xi holds more cards than Trump in trade showdown
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/xi-has-more-cards-to-play-than-trump-but-tariff-war-to-have-brutal-impact-on-china-20250411-p5lqzl.html

    Experts say the US-China tariff war could deliver cheaper Chinese-made goods to Australian consumers. Cars, phones and electronic products once destined for the US could be exported to Australia instead, resulting in lower prices.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-12/trump-tariff-war-us-china-australia-cheaper-chinese-goods/105165900

    The distraction of an erratic US-driven trade war is forcing Labor to pivot on the campaign trail, while offering opportunities to sharpen its pitch as the superior economic manager. By Jason Koutsoukis.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/04/12/we-are-being-tested-inside-labors-trade-war-strategy

    Democratic senators want an investigation into potential market manipulation from Trump’s inner circle
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/donald-trump-market-manipulation-accusations/105165546

    Australia is on an economic rollercoaster thanks to Donald Trump. What happens from here?
    Nicki Hutley
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/11/australia-is-on-an-economic-rollercoaster-thanks-to-donald-trump-what-happens-from-here

    As the major parties compete for the title of best economic manager, they are still ignoring the elephant in the room. Their future spending commitments, and voters’ expectations for further support, are not adequately funded by the prospective tax base. By John Hewson
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/04/11/fix-broken-tax-system

    They have returned to work, but the anger of more than 5000 NSW doctors has not gone away.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/in-sydney-s-eds-they-took-away-the-beds-but-the-patients-kept-coming-20250410-p5lqoy.html

    Former High Court of Australia chief justice Robert French has quit Hong Kong’s top court, becoming the latest in a string of foreign judges to resign after Beijing’s national security crackdown.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/top-australian-judge-robert-french-quits-hong-kong-court-20250411-p5lr6z.html

    The simple path to zero carbon. Saul Griffith is the founder and chief scientist at Rewiring America and Rewiring Australia and author of The Big Switch.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/04/12/the-no-brainer-energy-solution

    Nuclear Australia: an on-again, off-again history
    Is Peter Dutton’s energy plan going the way of a succession of nuclear pushes?
    https://insidestory.org.au/australian-nuclear-an-on-again-off-again-history/

    Be careful what he wishes for. Slashing migration is much harder than it sounds
    https://insidestory.org.au/be-careful-what-he-wishes-for/

    Labor vowed to take on miners over Indigenous heritage. Now Albanese is their guest
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-vowed-to-take-on-miners-over-indigenous-heritage-now-albanese-is-their-guest-20250411-p5lr3b.html

    Supermarkets may not be price gouging, but don’t discount the need for a stick.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/supermarkets-may-not-be-price-gouging-but-don-t-discount-the-need-for-a-stick-20250410-p5lqo2.html

    Guardian Australia had a 12-year dream run. Has it lost its edge?
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/guardian-australia-had-a-12-year-dream-run-has-it-lost-its-edge-20250402-p5lojb.html

    Australian with working visa detained and deported on returning to US from sister’s memorial. Man who says he had previously left and re-entered the country multiple times alleges border officials called him ‘retarded’ and boasted ‘Trump is back in town’.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/australian-with-us-working-visa-detained-insulted-deported

    Head of US military base in Greenland fired after JD Vance visit. Col Susannah Meyers removed amid reports she distanced base from Vance’s criticism of Denmark’s oversight of territory
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/col-susannah-meyers-head-of-us-military-base-greenland-fired-after-jd-vance-visit

    Boarding passes and check-in could be scrapped in air travel shake-up. Facial recognition and a ‘journey pass’ stored on passengers’ phones are part of UN-backed plans to digitise air transport
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/11/boarding-passes-and-check-in-to-be-scrapped-in-air-travel-shake-up-plans

    What’s the true cost of Donald Trump? All the crises around the world that we’ve no time to fix. The US president adores the attention, but while leaders struggle to mitigate the damage he causes, other emergencies are getting worse. By Jonathan Freedland
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/11/true-cost-donald-trump-crises-us-president

    The unanimous decision of the ROK’s Constitutional Court ( 8-0 including those judges nominated by his party) to uphold the National Assembly’s decision to immediately impeach former president Yoon Suk Yeol marks a very significant milestone in the country’s short democratic history. But it leaves much to be played out in a complex and volatile domestic political scene with wider regional and global implications.
    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/republic-of-korea-tricky-transition-times-ahead/

    Friedrich Merz’s cabinet: Who will lead Germany’s key ministries?
    Here are the politicians most likely to occupy top posts in the next government.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/friedrich-merz-germany-spd-cdu-csu-cabinet-who-will-lead-key-ministries/

    Allies pledge €21B in weapons for Ukraine while denouncing Russian attacks
    Ukraine’s supporters promised a record new round of military aid.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/allies-pledge-21-billion-weapon-ukraine-russia-attack-boris-pistorius/

    Xi wants EU-China tag team to resist Trump’s trade onslaught. Chinese leader met Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez, who also promoted closer ties with Beijing.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-pedro-sanchez-champions-china-key-eu-partner-amid-donald-trump-trade-war/

    US State department tells employees to report on one another for ‘anti-Christian bias’. This is crazy town stuff.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/11/state-report-anti-christian-bias-033535

    Why Republicans in Congress Are Hiding Their Panic. As Trump’s trade war roils the world, the many free traders in his own party are taking the path of appeasement.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/10/gop-tariff-dilemma-trump-00282962

    Military contractors pitch unprecedented prison plan for detained immigrants. Erik Prince wants to cut a deal to skirt immigration laws and transport detainees from the US to El Salvador. Sick.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/11/military-contractors-prison-plan-detained-immigrants-erik-prince-00287208

    Cartoon Time!

    Alan Moir

    Matt Golding

    Fiona Katauskas Catching up on the news? You may want to lie down

    Badiucao

    Cathy Wilcox

    Simon Letch

    First Dog On the Moon

    Keir Starmer arrives in the Antarctic to discuss tariffs – with penguins: the Stephen Collins cartoon

    David Squires on … Heard Island and McDonald Islands’ A-League expansion bid

    Martin Rowson on Donald Trump and the American bond market

    From the Internet

    Enjoy!

  36. I think that “Vote Dutton get Dutton” is scary enough. Better still, “Vote [insert name of local Liberal here] get Dutton”, especially in Teal-targeted electorates where the Liberals are posing as moderate and pretending to care about the climate.

  38. At this rate the LNP’s primary vote will be down from the previous election come May 3. I don’t think Dutton has the capacity to turn it around, he’s evidently been branded a dud in most people’s minds.

    Labor ramping up YouTube ads here in WA, trying to link the nuclear plan as leading to cuts in health funding.

  39. Twice in my lifetime Labor was reconfigure the Australian economy when it need be done. The unmitigated economic incompetence is why I will never vote Liberal again. You can’t eat culture wars.
    One thing for sure the Liberals are not up to doing it, fortunately it looks like Labor will be in power, because it is going to have to be done again.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6D2Rzo8JDMY

  41. Dandy
    You passed the test, again, Katich
    ————————————
    They don’t call me Consistent Katich for nothing.

  42. It’s time for the Coalition to make a big announcement to shake up the campaign. A referendum on the death penalty. A one year compulsory national service for all school leavers.

  43. Interesting social gathering with Western Sydney friends last night.

    Some takeaways

    – some long standing Labor voters are voting (and handing out) for Greens this election. Reasons? Gaza mostly, and AUKUS as the second reason. They wanted a stronger stance on Gaza than just repeating of the two-state solution policy by Labor
    – Michelle Rowland is well regarded, but the rock star in the West is definitely Ed Husic. Though there is a perception that he is restricted in his role as Cabinet Minister from fully expressing his views
    – not so much Chris Bowen, who is less well regarded
    – but by far and away the biggest derision was reserved for Peter Dutton. Completely out of touch with this lot, policy wise and even moreso personality wise. The work from home issue still front of mind, and the lack of affordable childcare in Western Sydney ($200 a day if you can get a spot) does not accord with those with young families

  45. The Bonge has made an important observation we should all remember:

    Dutton’s apparent ditching of a policy to fire 41,000 public servants and to force those remaining to abandon working from home is an own goal of significant proportions. It was, after all, the highest profile revenue measure unveiled by Dutton in his budget reply speech just over two weeks ago.

    That night, the opposition leader claimed the swoop on the public service and the efficiencies gained by a return to the office would deliver $7 billion in savings over five years. He is still claiming that bottom-line outcome, which in itself casts real doubt over the seriousness of the commitment not to revisit the plan should he win government.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/04/11/how-blow-campaign-two-easy-steps

  46. As with all the Cliamte200 polling trying to see where their candidates sits, they ignore the Labor primary vote and simply assume the IND will make the final two. On that Forrest poll, there is 46% of the vote with someone else!!! Labor could easily have 25% of that, having gained 27% in 2022.

  48. Multimillion dollar Dutton doesn’t understand how expensive childcare is….just ring him up and get an au pair bought in on a special Dutton visa.

  49. C@t

    Not really Muslim vote – the impact of Indian migrants was discussed, with the strong view that they voted with their locale. So further towards The Hills the Indians would vote Liberal, and closer to Mt Druitt it was all Labor.

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