Yesterday marked the declaration of nominations, with ballot paper draws conducted and candidates lists published. The Poll Bludger election guide has duly been updated with full candidate lists for both House and Senate. Labor and the Greens are as usual fielding candidates in all seats, while the Coalition parties have 157 candidates between them — of the seven three-cornered contest, probably only the new Western Australian seat of Bullwinkel is of interest. The total number of lower house candidates is down from 1203 to 1126, or 7.96 candidates per seat to 7.51. Leading the pack are Calwell and Riverina with 13 each, which in the former case could deepen an already complex situation with a high informal vote.
At the other end of the scale, Fenner, Bean, Perth and Maribyrnong will have to make do with four. A contributor in the first two cases is that only the three Australian Capital Territory seats are spared One Nation candidates. Whereas the United Australia Party had a full complement in 2022, Trumpet of Patriots has only 100 candidates, followed by Family First on 92, Libertarians on 46 and Legalise Cannabis on 42. The 2022 result seems to have encouraged independents, who are up in number from 98 to 132.
The pace of decline in Senate nominations has quickened as aspirants acclimatise to the fact that preference harvesting is no longer a thing, providing relief to both voters and the Australian Electoral Commission in terms of the size of the ballot papers. The total number of candidates has fallen progressively from 458 in 2019 to 421 in 2022 to 330 in 2025, while the total number of groups across all states and territories is down from 151 in 2022 to 118. The Australian Electoral Commission has also published final enrolment statistics as of the close of the roll on Monday. There are 18,098,797 voters on the roll, a 5.1% increase on the 17,213,433 enrolled in 2022, which was in turn a 4.8% increase on 2019.
Polling latest:
• The News Corp papers today carry the third wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research marginal seat tracking poll, targeting 20 seats that had an average Labor two-party vote of 51.0% in 2022, as adjusted for redistributions. As such, its Labor lead of 52.5-47.5 might be considered the government’s most encouraging result of the campaign so far, comparing with Coalition leads of 52-48 in the February 4-11 wave and 50.5-49.5 from February 20-25. The Coalition primary vote has progressively sunk from 43% to 41% to 36%, but the dividend has gone almost entirely to “others” — Labor scored 33% in the first wave, 34% in the second and 35% in this one, while the Greens have been steady on 12% throughout. Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating has progressed from minus 16 to minus 11 to minus 8, while Peter Dutton has gone from minus 11 to minus 17 (or so I infer — the result published for the second poll combined the first two waves) to minus 16. One bright spot for the Coalition is that their supporters continue to register greater firmness in their intention, with 38% rating themselves merely soft or leaning compared with 57% for Labor. Albanese also had only 18% viewing his handling of the Trump administration’s tariffs favourably, compared with 40% for unfavourably. The poll was conducted last Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1003.
• The News Corp papers report three sets of claims regarding internal polling in Dickson, with the Coalition saying their own polling by Freshwater Strategy has Peter Dutton leading Labor’s Ali France 57-43; Climate 200 offering uComms polling showing France leading 51.7-48.3; and Labor polling “understood” to have it at 50-50. Also “understood” is that Dutton’s campaign has spent $40,000 on advertising attacking Climate 200-backed independent Ellie Smith. Further, Samantha Maiden of news.com.au provides, in rather more detail, a separate uComms poll, this one for the Queensland Conservation Council, showing Labor leading 52-48, with primary votes of 37.6% for Dutton, 24.2% for France, 12.0% for Smith, 10.9% for the Greens, 4.6% for others and 10.8% undecided. The poll was freshly conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 854.
• The Australian reports polling conducted for Climate 200 has teal independent Sue Chapman with a 51-49 lead over Liberal candidate Ben Small in the regional Western Australian seat of Forrest, where Liberal incumbent Nola Marino is retiring. The primary vote question recorded 34% support for Small and 20% for Chapman along with an unspecified undecided component, of which 27% favoured Chapman and 18% Small when prompted with a follow-up question. An unidentified Liberal MP is quoted saying the party was “not alarmed yet, but we’re anxious”.
• Local news outlet Pulse Tasmania reports a uComms poll for the Australian Forest Products Association shows a tight race in the key Tasmanian seat of Lyons, with Labor candidate Rebecca White leading 50.9-49.1 over Liberal candidate Susie Bowers. The primary votes are Labor 27.2%, Liberal 29.5%, Greens 14.6%, Jacqui Lambie Network 5.8% and One Nation 4.1%, with 13.1% undecided.
Jt1983 no you see when the liberals do it it’s clever when Labor does it it’s stupid honestly I don’t know how this is going to change the election outcome labour can just match it also the seems to me this was announced to get people stopped talking about the Trump stuff but like I said they give in Labor attack ads
Before I am forced away for a day the recent chattering of commentary reveals a great logistical shame of PB.
The brilliant and thought provoking narratives and threads only fire up after midnight. Before this time it’s all too frequently banal and without bite or carbonation.
Honestly – this screams of desperation from Dutton et al.
Not dissimilar from when Morrison announced the super-raid for housing in 2022 at their launch. There was a lot of gnashing of teeth and misplaced confidence from the Libs. None of this is a game changer.
It’s more about making Labor’s job harder in Government, not something they’re expecting to have to do.
”
ScromoIIsays:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 11:08 pm
Dutton has pulled a rabbit of the hat and offered a LMITO-like one-off tax offset of $1200 for middle income earners, equivalent to about $24 a week. This is in addition to the fuel excise cut. All those earning up to 144k will get some offset.
In the meantime Albanese announces all first home buyers will be able to buy with a 5% deposit with the government guaranteeing up to 15% of the loan. This will only serve to drive up housing prices even further and bring property even more out of reach. Such stupidity beyond imagination
”
Wow! How many rabbits are there Dutton’s hat. He keeps pulling one rabbit after another all the time.
@T.D. Karabotsossays: Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 11:15 pm
“I worked a fair bit around Spearwood/Cockburn/Bibra Lake in the early 2000’s and I remember them as being pretty working class areas with a fairly prominent European migrant population.
Has it changed that much that the Greens are a chance to win booths in those areas??”
~~~~
I used to frequently drive to the suburbs near Cockburn Central and Jandakot. From what I’ve experienced Jandakot still seem like working class area. Cockburn Central definitely feels like it has grown significantly compared to 2000. It feels like a lot more wealthier/middle class people has moved there; the opening of Cockburn ARC there might be influencing my views a lot though.
Idk what happened in areas like Bibra Lake to turn it into a ALP vs GRN contest tho, Jandakot and Cockburn are still classic ALP vs LIB contests.
”
Entropysays:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 11:12 pm
ScromoIIsays:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 11:08 pm
Dutton has pulled a rabbit of the hat and offered a LMITO-like one-off tax offset of $1200 for middle income earners, equivalent to about $24 a week. This is in addition to the fuel excise cut. All those earning up to 144k will get some offset.
==================================================
More Liberal debt and deficit is all i see
”
No. Just rabbits.
Jt1983 no that 1200 dollars that labour can match he’s gonna flip their chances the liberals have won the election the most wow yeah this does seem like desperation but the problem is it’s two weeks too late
Silly old Con the fruiterer of RedBridge fame may soon be forced to sell that gold plated children’s novelty necklace that sits around his neck and just hope he can get enough to pay for a silver top to st Vincents.
He makes someone like old uncle Pascoe appear credible and legitimate in comparison.
@Quentin – I’d honestly much rather Labor didn’t match it.
People in WA hate Dutton and what he stands for. The end.
Cut in Petrol excise duty and tax offset are applicable for only one year.
That means they are there to only to win the may election. After bugger all and Trumpism
Let us see whether those short-term bribes work for him to win the election.
Otherwise, he is an empty suit with Trumpism armour. Make no mistake about that.
This election reminds me of 1987 – I won’t be surprised if Jim Chalmers and Treasury find a massive hole in Angus Taylor’s costings.
Limited one year only tax offsets and fuel excise cuts are electoral bribes, and should be seen as such.
Dutton’s bribe was entirely predictable, Labor’s offering on housing on the other hand is one out of the box.
I don’t know if Dutton planned this one off bribe – sorry, one-off tax offset – from the beginning or not, but the timing makes it look like desperate even if it was in fact planned all along, and it also looks like his only idea is spray money at people.
Regarding our favourite Senator-
What an irony it would be if the divisive fire brand from Alice Springs who was recruited by Dutton to appeal to a broader cross section of the electorate ends up actually costing him the election due to fears she was too closely aligned to Donald Trump and his policies
jt1983 they probably will match it but honestly it does wreak of desperation exposedly if the campaign launch and Labor announces something massive which we all know something massive is going to happen honestly but like what you said the more people see of Peter the more they don’t like him the more they see Anthony they like him honestly I don’t know why people in January thought that was gonna be a liberal majority anyway at best it was gonna be a minority for either side now it looks like it’s going to be a labour majority or minority
Doing wog jokes now leftie! Throwback to kingswood country you are mate.
You’d get along with my old uncle who used to say there are very few aussies around now, calling most Australians “half a Yugoslav or something”. And this was in the 80s
Ven the the problem with pretending to be Trump is that Trump is popular with a certain group people that he needs to vote in what happened at the Wisconsin election where they couldn’t even get their people to vote a supreme court judge in Wisconsin I don’t know Peters Peter and he wasn’t even popular like at best he was like what at least hated that’s why I have was always weird when people say liberals could have win this they focus on cost of living but they haven’t so that’s why this 1,200 bribe honestly I think it was just announcing to have something to take away from the Trump tour but then Labor announced their policies so I don’t know what happened I actually think that just have no clue the coalition had around the campaign
”
jt1983says:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 11:24 pm
I’m deeply confused … Labor’s tax cut was pointless because it didn’t start until next year?
Liberal policy to let people raid super for a deposit was amazing – but this isn’t?
FTR more tax cuts? Jesus and yes, this will bump up house prices. But any intervention was going to.
”
A tax offset is another form of tax cut.
According to LNP, ALP tax cuts are wrong but LNP tax cuts are right.
Oh, I know @Ven – I was just musing on the stupidity of the arguments.
“Albanese announces all first home buyers will be able to buy with a 5% deposit with the government guaranteeing up to 15% of the loan”
“Labor said that would save the average first home buyer about $23,000.”
$2bn Funding to the states build houses for first home buyers and $8bn in credit?
Any price caps on the houses or market rate (which just went up)
Nothing for public housing.
Never mind that will help me to get young Hamish into his first investment property. Hopefully he doesn’t have to make to live in some heat sink that used to be a sheep paddock 50km from the CBD for long
sustainable snail says:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 5:46 pm
“Bystander good luck finding a blackfella that likes Jacinta Price”
I don’t know any.
JIMBOB says:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 7:20 pm
“Looks like seven Greens and sixteen Independents along with Sharkie and Katter. That’s 25 in 25 on the crossbench.”
How do you get seven Greens? Their primary vote has remained stagnant at best but in Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith, I have been informed by friends and acquaintances living in the Brisbane area that there is quite a deal of anger in those Green seats because of their posturing and their embracing of the criminal elements in the CFMEU. Don’t be surprised if they lose all three Brisbane seats and not necessarily all to the ALP. Ryan may be a QLNP gain. Brisbane could now go to the ALP or the QLNP with Rachael Blackwood entering the mix and seeing Bates going back into obscurity and being once again as anonymous as he has been in Parliament. Griffith could well revert back to being Labor because Chandler-Mather has become unpopular by rubbing people up the wrong way.
T.D. Karabotsos says:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 9:43 pm
“In my opinion, a predictable (and dare I say it), dull government, run by emotionally stable, responsible, fully cognitive adults, is what the vast majority of people in this country want.”
That is correct T.D. Karabotsos. Australia is a conservative country and the electorate is quite fearful of change to a large degree. The only way to effect change in Australia is to get into Government and do the reform early on in the term and give it a chance to “bed in”, so to speak. That is why Dutton and his praise of Trump has scared the horses. Now with the treacherous Jacinta Price adding to that perception, Albanese’s predictable and stable way of governing is looking like a safe haven for the electorate. Australia’s conservatism is something that the Greens just don’t get and when they go into absolutist and obstructionist mode like they have during this term of Government, they don’t increase their vote, they just help out the hard right LNP and allow the LNP to link the Greens with the ALP. The irony should not be lost given that the Greens have been in partnership with the coalition in blocking a multitude of legislation in the Senate and for a time there, it seemed that the free ride the LNP got was going to see the far right under Dutton form Government.
As things are going, Dutton and the LNP look doomed which is a good thing for the country.
leftieBrawler says:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 11:50 pm
“Regarding our favourite Senator-
What an irony it would be if the divisive fire brand from Alice Springs who was recruited by Dutton to appeal to a broader cross section of the electorate ends up actually costing him the election due to fears she was too closely aligned to Donald Trump and his policies”
Price is sponsored by the far right Christian lot and Advance. Dutton’s attempt to bring in the token Aboriginal (something that Price doesn’t mind at all), to a DOGE type position to try and appeal to a broader cross section of the electorate was always doomed to failure. That’s because Price is a “Trumpette”, not a fully paid up member which I believe is around $US200,000 plus a yearly subscription like Gina Rinehart, but a “Trumpette” in spirit. After all, the far-right Christian Lobby and Advance which support and fund Price are all part of the Trump diaspora.
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2025/apr/11/melbourne-cinema-cancels-fundraising-screening-of-oscar-winning-film-about-palestinian-displacement-citing-threats-ntwnfb
That’s sad. We should be better than this. 🙁
Playa I wanted to describe the good senator in a similar fashion as yourself.
But out of respect to William who is the responsible person for all and sundry that is posted here I erred on the side of caution.
Me and Nath , entropy and I, boer, Rex and I etc etc have our fun and mutual exchanges of good natured ribbing.
In relation to our first Australians I’d rather not go there because it can never end well.
All I am prepared to say is that we all know why Senator Price was Jettisoned to the top of the LNP ticket and the reasoning behind it. Once you go beyond fairly generic and vague references such as this you invite the prospect of formal enquiry.
Nath ya big girls blouse. Harden up and get a sense of humour my dear friend. PB is richer for our sparing. The world is a stage my boy. No need to transition into genuine hate and anger !
Bludgeoned Westie:
A lot of the hippy / alternative types who used to live in Freo and South Freo but got priced out by the real estate bubble has been pushed out to suburbs like Hamilton Hill and Coolbellup, which makes Bibra Lake more Green-friendly – similar to the way Preston and Pascoe Vale are now Labor/Green marginals in Victoria. Plus there’s plenty of people who study or work at Murdoch uni, ironically with the reputation of Perth’s hippy uni despite being named after Rupert’s granddad. (Or at least it was when I was there.) And back in 2017 this was ground zero for the protests against the Roe Hwy extension through the middle of a wetland. There’s a few things going on. If Adele Carles hadn’t got into bed with Troy Buswell, Willagee / Bibra Lake would’ve been a Green target seat for a while.
Plus, the Libs just had a really, really bad election.
Nothing to do with local politics, I just found this story where doctors implanted fertilised eggs in a woman without the consent of the donor (back in the 80s; so cutting edge that what they did hadn’t yet been made unlawful, and was only the 11th live birth from donor eggs) oddly heartwarming, because it shows how even in these horrible circumstances people acting reasonably can get through it all really well with empathy rather than with maximum pain and litigation.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/12/fertility-clinic-doctors-stole-womans-eggs-to-get-another-pregnant
They also bury the lede really far down that one of the two main doctors involved is the father of actor Pedro Pascal, which I suppose has nothing actually to do with the story BUT it’s a small world innit.
Poker machine politics!
There are no consequences for offering more wins and brighter lights with every spin as a nation weened on getting lucky, positions its voting strategy to maximum advantage and bugger everyone else.
Less than three weeks to go, a policy whirlpool and winning at any cost.
Not a genuinely sincere attempt to provide costings and one major player throwing the kitchen sink about.
It’s all coming to an election near you!
leftieBrawler says:
Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 1:32 am
I try to be as respectful as I can but the truth is that after the hatchet job on the Voice by Price, Thorpe, the Greens, Advance, Mundine, the far right Christians mob and assorted media commentators masquerading as journalists, to say it has left a bitter taste in my mouth is the understatement of the century.
I understand that this a psephology site and it is brilliant. I try my damndest to make my comments in keeping with the aims of this site, that is, pertaining to the “numbers”, so to speak.
My commentary is based purely on my observations and what this may mean to voting intentions.
I have difficulty in keeping my emotions in check when I discuss the plight of Aboriginal and Torres Straight Islanders and the impediments to their being treated equally in the eyes of the law. When this eventuates, then and only then will we be able to move towards reconciliation. Without equality in the eyes of the law, there cannot be equality and for Dutton and the LNP to trot out Price as the voice of Indigenous people to try and appeal to a “broader cross section” is insulting and they are bound to come unstuck.
Price’s Trump reference have exposed her, Dutton and the others for who they are and I believe that it will not only cost them votes in this election, but also render them obsolete in the future.
Been there: best way to get them is with a towel. As long as you are gentle they’ll be fine. I had one behind a curtain just as I was going to sleep, it was huge. I got it with the towel and got it outside it turned around and came running back at the door like Gout Gout to get back inside!! Closed the door just in time
Playa: I wonder if Price’s comment wasn’t a sop to Gina. Price is sent out once again to be the devils advocate for Peter Dutton and say the things he can’t , like during the voice campaign. Some reports suggest Gina is a bit upset that the LNP is not copying more of the Trump playbook and promising a more RW agenda. Sacking the public service is very much RW ideology as is tax cuts for the rich. Problem for Gina is that Australian elections are won or lost in the middle not on the far edges like the USA also the AEC oversees our elections whereas the American system is a mess and voter suppression is rife.
Dutton’s petrol play and now his tax play are both just for one year, and as such I think most people will be pretty cynical about them. And no one would be surprised if they did win the election and then suddenly declared the budget position was suddenly discovered to be worse (Labor’s Black Hole!!) and these two one-off policies would have to be shelved after all!
So I think the Coalition probably pre released that tax stuff just to get the headlines away from Doge Price’s ‘MAGA’ comment and subsequent denial.
New thread.
paul A says:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 9:11 pm
Interesting that Mr Modi has got a further carve-out on tariffs applied to his country. Now down to 10%, even though there is a 90 day pause. 10% is below the standard 12% V.A.T. India applies within her domain.
A VAT and a tariff are entirely different. They are not related to or comparable to each other.
You go not have a point of argument here. You are relying on an irrelevance.
MAGA-minded stupidity at work here.
Brett @ 11.27am
The choice is simple ignore the RWNJs.
They can never form government.
If you don’t want a Count-Lib Government place the Coalition candidate, last.
If you live in a seat with both a Count and Lib candidate place the one most likely to win, last and the other second last.
Go online, check the candidate profiles and selectively preference them according to their policies and how they align with your political philosophy..
In regard to your RWNJs, do the same as with the Noaliti0n candidates.
I don’t care how odious some of the minor parties or Independents may be, I always place the coalition, last.