No signs of a let-up in the trend to Labor in the polls, with the latest YouGov poll putting their two-party lead at 52.5-47.5 based on a respondent-allocated measure of preferences, out from 51-49 last week. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up two), Coalition 33.5% (down one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (steady), One Nation 8.5% (up one-and-a-half) and Trumpet of Patriots 1% (down one). Anthony Albanese records personal ratings approaching net positive, with his approval up one to 45% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Peter Dutton is unchanged at 38% and 53%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 48-37, out from 45-38. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1505.
Today marks an important milestone in the election process with the declaration of nominations. Ballot paper draws will be conducted in Australian Electoral Commission offices around the country and full candidates lists published later in the day.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 7:11 am
Didn’t labor poll 32% last election?
————————————
After the 2013 federal election , the federal lib/nats combined primary vote been declining , losing seats and Labor has been gaining seats
32% primary vote for Labor been has stable since 2013 , it seems the voters federal lib /nats losing are favouring labor in preferencing
US 10 Year bonds 4.44%
Australia 10 year bonds 4.30%
Chalmers come on down champ!
We need some State breakdown polling – hopefully we get a Resolve this weekend to see where the Liberal collapse is trending.
Or even some seat polling. I note the Redbridge 20 seat tracker, due for a 3rd wave, is overdue. Now surely the Daily Rupert who commissioned this wouldn’t be sitting on a poor result for their team? The 2nd Redbridge wave did have signs of successful ALP sandbagging in NSW, but the Victorians were struggling a bit.
Scottsays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 7:21 am
Mexicanbeemer says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 7:11 am
Didn’t labor poll 32% last election?
————————————
After the 2013 federal election , the federal lib/nats combined primary vote been declining , losing seats and Labor has been gaining seats
32% primary vote for Labor been has stable since 2013 , it seems the voters federal lib /nats losing are favouring labor in preferencing
——————
Yep it’s the liberals going backwards and labor staying stable.
Sceptic says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 6:49 am
….
It’s the only thing safer than money under the mattress.
Yes, money under, right, right, right.”
I think money under the mattress is the best bet
If the US bond market collapses ( yield increase out of control is what marks it) you have a pile of paper under the mattress, or if AUD, a pile of plastic.
YouGov net satisfaction…
These graphics AAP are doing of the YouGov poll are neat…
The full set of AAP YouGov graphics are here
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8939966/coalition-on-track-to-lose-seats-as-blunder-buoys-labor/
sprocket_ says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 6:59 am
Could the LNP possibly end up sub _:_ ?
I’m hoping the Liberals lose nearly all their seats. The Nationals will likely hold on to become the larger Opposition party. It would every fitting if they were to become the official opposition and for their leader to become LOTO. The Liberals are politically bankrupt.
I’m just back from a bit over a week in Cairns. Labor is throwing plenty at Leichhardt, loads of advertising and some local announcements. Definitely one to watch on election night.
US Cartoons (Part 1 of a 1 part pack):
Hack, woke, Partisansays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 7:35 am
sprocket_ says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 6:59 am
Could the LNP possibly end up sub _:_ ?
I’m hoping the Liberals lose nearly all their seats. The Nationals will likely hold on to become the larger Opposition party. It would every fitting if they were to become the official opposition and for their leader to become LOTO. The Liberals are politically bankrupt.
__________________________________________
I’m sure that Zali Steggall would look good in the opposition leaders chair…
nath repeatedly said that if ALP lose the coming May federal election, they should dissolve and allow another centre-left party without union connections be formed. I wonder what nath thinks if LNP loses the coming federal election based on YouGov numbers.
Having said that ALP PV is still oscillating between 30-33%, which is not good to form majority government on its own. We need an ALP majority federal government to navigate Australia’s course in the next 3 years through some fearsome, troublesome international (conditions) waters because like Singapore, Australia is dependant a lot on trading. We don’t want amateurs and spivs running our government.
If the polling is accurate, it seems support for Duttons L/NP has collapsed. Massive error of judgment in choosing to rely on riding with the Trump phenomenon.
The best outcome for Australia is a minority Labor govt with community independent and Green BoP in both houses.
Kevin Bonham has calculated a Labor share of 53.6%. Add on about 4% for the Non-Reactionary 3rd voices….the Reactionary 2CP share is about 42%. By May 3 this will be in the 30s.
Excellent.
ajm says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 6:54 am
I’m wondering if part of the decline in the coalition primary vote is due to voters in regional and rural electorates transferring their loyalty from the Nationals to independents.
Would be nice if the Nationals got smashed – one right in the eye for Gina.
We may see the whole electoral landscape rewritten this election
_____________________________________________
It was rewritten the last election. The Liberals just thought it was temporary. Labor took it more seriously.
Another observation.
The Greens actually have a political rationale – not an economically rational one, but one that offers a degree of coherence across different policy areas. Labor is the closest large party to that rationale. Hence most Green preferences reliably finish up there, rather than the Coalition.
On the other hand, the other minor parties – and many of the teals/independents – are parties of grievance and their voters do not have a natural home to park their preferences. So the split is either far more unpredictable or 50/50. Which is why the Liberals loss of primary vote matters more per percent than Labor’s.
I think this will be an election where preferences will mostly finish with Labor – but with the very real possibility of independents/greens winning random seats that were previously owned by the major parties. Still I see a Labor majority with the Coalition the biggest losers.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 7:25 am
Yep it’s the liberals going backwards and labor staying stable.
—————————-
Labor are still getting the voters choices over the federal lib/nats , that what matters
There’s a risk of Labor becoming complacent off the back of this trend, but at least an equal risk of the LNP losing their nerve or dissolving in panic.
An any case, the betting markets have made their mind up. Albanese is now a stronger favourite to win re-election than Mike Carney in Canada.
leftieBrawlersays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 2:24 am
William you’re on fire with the frequency and up tick of these now bi-daily open threads.
_____________________
Labors improvement has put a bit more pep in his step.
I bet if it was the other way round you would not be getting this level of service.
It would be very good if the Teals and other Indy voices were to outnumber the Liberals in the next Parliament. I’m hopeful.
How is this going to end. Lower growth, high inflation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMrxrYijofk
I think that Norfolk Island’s poor treatment with tariffs was due to cruise ship tourists. The island has a reputation (valid or not) for good prices. Folk buy things and the shops will post stuff home for you. There would be a total imbalance in things posted to the US compared with things coming from. Hence the tariffs.
Ven:-
[I wonder what nath thinks if]
“going down through the memories, one life time is not enough”
No one wants Nath back to where he was!
GovNerdsays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 7:43 am
There’s a risk of Labor becoming complacent off the back of this trend……
_____________________
Hubris. Labor are renowned for it.
Here’s a short blurb on USBonds from The Hill. And why Trump got yippie about it.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5243337-trump-tariffs-bond-market/amp/
Here is the chart.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
So yields are not at 12mth highs (that is, demand for bonds are not at lows). But it’s the fact they are rising when the expectation is they should be falling is the clincher. Peeps aren’t trusting US bonds in response to Trump induced uncertainty.
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 7:50 am
It would be very good if the Teals and other Indy voices were to outnumber the Liberals in the next Parliament. I’m hopeful.
—————————-
They could go close in out numbering the national party
The risk now for Labor is that folk think they’re a shoo-in and decide not to bother to vote for them.
Hope everyone’s been well the past few years! Sending positive thoughts to you all.
Good Morning! Here’s Your Week 2 of the Election Campaign Daily News and Views Roundup
Latest polling shows the coalition has gone from being “in the box seat” to win the election to the prospect of losing seats on May 3. The YouGov polling, released to AAP, reveals Labor has gained ground to forge ahead 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent over the coalition in the two-party preferred vote.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2025/2025/04/11/federal-election-dutton
There’s a key problem in Dutton’s campaign, and he’s running out of time to fix it. David Crowe
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/there-s-a-key-problem-in-dutton-s-campaign-and-he-s-running-out-of-time-to-fix-it-20250410-p5lqnw.html
Australians for Prosperity has deleted two months of social media posts after being approached by the AEC over unauthorised electoral material. The coal industry-funded group, led by former Coalition MPs, has been campaigning against progressive candidates in the federal election. Some voters who have participated in the group’s vox pop-style videos say they did not agree to appear in its paid ads.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/australians-for-prosperity-removes-posts-after-aec-intervention/105156612
Coalition election win could cause loss of hundreds of jobs at agency scrutinising aged care mistreatment, modelling says
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/11/coalition-election-win-could-cause-loss-of-hundreds-of-jobs-at-agency-scrutinising-aged-care-mistreatment-modelling-says
Dutton dodges questions about Liberal candidate pleading guilty to financial charge. Of course
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/another-liberal-candidate-under-pressure-as-candidate-vetting-questioned-20250407-p5lpw6.html
Here’s the answer to the ‘Where’s Tanya?’ question.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-case-of-the-missing-environment-minister-20250410-p5lqnx.html
The Labor party has a legacy of action for the natural world. Now is the time for us to do better
Felicity Wade
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2025/apr/11/the-labor-party-has-a-legacy-of-action-for-the-natural-world-now-is-the-time-for-us-to-do-better
‘You shouldn’t be in survival mode’: Why this Sydney seat, Paramatta, matters so much at this election
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/you-shouldn-t-be-in-survival-mode-why-this-sydney-seat-matters-so-much-at-this-election-20250404-p5lpc2.html
The sun’s out guns out PM in a white polo shirt and Rabbitohs cap found himself in the seat of Leichhardt, one of Labor’s few real prospects in the sunshine state.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-10/albanese-tom-cruise-dutton-melbourne-china-federal-election/105156122
Will there be leadership changes on both sides of politics next parliamentary term? Michelle Grattan
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/will-both-parties-see-a-leadership-change/105162922
Tony Wright is back. Trump-lite dynamite: Did copying the president’s playbook blow up Dutton’s campaign?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/trump-lite-dynamite-did-copying-the-president-s-playbook-blow-up-dutton-s-campaign-20250409-p5lqem.html
Coalition leader Peter Dutton will build on his pitch to commuters by dumping Labor’s penalties on gas-guzzling vehicles as new research shows his cut to the petrol excise will provide the biggest boon for lower-income outer-suburban voters.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-drives-home-his-pitch-to-commuters-by-dumping-guzzler-tax-20250410-p5lqon.html
Newsroom edition: the vibes election – Full Story podcast By Lenore Taylor
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2025/apr/03/newsroom-edition-have-vibes-replaced-policy-in-this-election-full-story-podcast
Analysis: Gender politics: will the 2025 election send more female MPs to Australia’s parliament?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/11/australia-federal-election-2025-female-mp-gender-equality-parliament
Major parties pour millions into social media advertising in first week
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/major-parties-spend-1-4-million-on-online-ads/105161684
‘When someone says something nice to me, I just burst into tears’: Inside the mind of Lidia Thorpe
https://www.smh.com.au/national/when-someone-says-something-nice-to-me-i-just-burst-into-tears-inside-the-mind-of-lidia-thorpe-20250221-p5le1t.html
After the ASX200 added $99 billion in value following Trump’s decision to pause his reciprocal tariffs on most of America’s trading partners, Reserve Bank Governor Bullock altered a prepared speech to ask for patience to understand the ramifications on the global economy from one of the most tumultuous weeks in generations.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shares-surge-but-trump-s-tariff-turnaround-reduces-rate-cut-chances-20250410-p5lqpl.html
Australia rejects China offer after Trump escalation, reopens free trade talks with EU
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-rejects-china-s-overture-prepares-for-free-trade-talks-with-eu-20250410-p5lqoi.html
‘Drip, drip, drip’: How Trump’s ‘beautiful’ tariff plan gave the world a cold shower. By Shane Wright
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/drip-drip-drip-how-trump-s-beautiful-tariff-plan-gave-the-world-a-cold-shower-20250408-p5lq9p.html
Running Mates The election from the WA perspective: A conga line of pollies loving WA and the chaos-causing protesters infiltrating press conferences. 19 minute video
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/a-conga-line-of-pollies-loving-wa-and-the-chaos-causing-protesters-infiltrating-press-conferences-20250410-p5lqs8.html
All to be won in the West: a Coalition catfight, sheep fury and the battle for Bullwinkel. Peter Dutton desperately needs to regain seats in Western Australia, but Labor have made the state a fortress – and then there’s the Nationals
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/11/all-to-be-won-in-the-west-a-coalition-catfight-sheep-fury-and-the-battle-for-bullwinkel
Labor’s Fiona Phillips is fighting to hold Gilmore against a renewed challenge from Liberal Andrew Constance. With a well-backed Independent also in the race, preferences could once again decide the outcome.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/federal-election-2025-nsw-south-coast-marginal-seat-gilmore/105158446
As the Australian election promises rain down I can’t help but wonder: how much is a vote worth these days? Kylea Tink
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2025/apr/10/australia-federal-election-promises-made-delivered-kylea-tink
What does Coalition’s plan to end Rewiring the Nation Fund mean for VNI West?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/coalition-rewiring-the-nation-vni-west-future-plan-end/105130936
The Coalition prepares to soften Australia’s 2030 climate target, while reaffirming its commitment to the Paris Agreement. Tony Wood The Grattan Institute
https://theconversation.com/the-coalition-prepares-to-soften-australias-2030-climate-target-while-reaffirming-its-commitment-to-the-paris-agreement-249945
A fair go for young Australians in this election? Voters are weighing up intergenerational inequity
https://theconversation.com/a-fair-go-for-young-australians-in-this-election-voters-are-weighing-up-intergenerational-inequity-250782
AUSVOTES ECONOMIC FACTS #3: Wage growth on the rise under Labor
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/ausvotes-economic-facts-3-wage-growth-on-the-rise-under-labor,19615
Why the NSW government wants you to think there’s no home defects crisis
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/why-the-government-wants-you-to-think-there-s-no-home-defects-crisis-20250408-p5lq5r.html
Racing NSW has engaged one of Australia’s most senior law enforcement figures to investigate an alleged tirade by independent MP Mark Latham towards a race club official. The incident at Rosehill last week prompted an immediate probe by the Australian Turf Club, of which Latham is a member, but the state’s powerful industry regulator is also assessing the conduct of its most fierce and vocal detractor.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/grave-case-of-hurt-feelings-mark-latham-s-behaviour-under-investigation-by-former-top-cop-20250410-p5lqsx.html
‘Win for the NSW northern beaches’: Community celebrates as embattled hospital operator flags exit
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/northern-beaches-hospital-should-return-to-public-hands-operator-says-20250410-p5lqr6.html
Musk to review US submarines as Australia warned tariffs could push up cost
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/musk-to-review-us-submarines-as-australia-warned-tariffs-could-push-up-cost-20250410-p5lqls.html
The White House was forced to clarify President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods are actually at least 145 per cent – not 125 per cent – as sharemarkets resumed their plunge. Meanwhile, Trump said countries he initially hit with a 10 per cent tariff, such as Australia and the United Kingdom, could negotiate the rate lower depending on their circumstances and what they offered the US.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-tariffs-on-china-are-actually-145-per-cent-white-house-clarifies-20250411-p5lqxb.html
It took roughly half a day for Donald Trump to realise that his “Liberation Day” was on the verge of creating a meltdown within the core of the US financial system. There were desperate efforts from the White House staff to spin Trump’s capitulation to the markets as the latest example of his deal-making genius. By Stephen Bartholomeusz
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/mad-king-trump-was-facing-a-financial-crisis-so-he-capitulated-20250410-p5lqnc.html
The 18 hours that changed Trump’s mind on tariffs.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-18-hours-that-changed-trump-s-mind-on-tariffs-20250410-p5lqql.html
As Trump and China refuse to blink on tariffs, the biggest consumer splurge in history is over
By Americas editor John Lyons
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/trump-china-and-the-possibility-of-tariff-trade-war/105155856
Did an AI chatbot help draft the US tariff policy? As Donald Trump’s tariff turnaround sends global economies reeling, there’s as much discussion online about how the US president came up with his plan as there is about why he’s now pausing it.
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/did-an-ai-chatbot-help-draft-the-us-tariff-policy-20250410-p5lqpx.html
President Donald Trump signed a new executive order Wednesday in pursuit of a familiar and elusive goal: “Undoing the left’s war on water pressure.” The President on Wednesday directed Energy Secretary Chris Wright to roll back Obama- and Biden-era rules limiting pressure in shower heads. In particular, he railed against efficiency standards getting in the way of grooming his iconic coiffure.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/09/trump-shower-water-pressure-executive-order-00283036
Trump’s about-face on tariffs reveals chaos at the core of his presidency. Time will tell how much damage has been inflicted on the credibility of Trump’s economic policy and administration.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/10/trump-tariffs-retreat-analysis
You don’t need to look far to see who gained from the market frenzy after US President Donald Trump delayed the most destructive aspects of his tariff regime this morning.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/trump-s-sharemarket-bonanza-and-the-billionaire-bros-club-20250410-p5lqpn.html
Labor has promised to investigate concerns about the Australia-Korea adoption program if it is re-elected to government, as calls grow from adoptees for answers about whether authorities knew of the legal and ethical issues now plaguing the Seoul agency that facilitated thousands of adoptions to Australia.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/labor-pledges-to-investigate-australia-korea-adoption-program-20250410-p5lqp5.html
Australian comedian ditches US trip due to concern she could be denied entry over Trump jokes
Alice Fraser thought she was being paranoid until her lawyer advised her jokes about Donald Trump and Elon Musk could be scrutinised at US airport
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/australian-comedian-alice-fraser-ditches-us-trip-over-concerns-she-could-be-denied-entry-due-to-trump-jokes
What would – and should – happen to the ABC under the next federal government?
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2025/04/10/abc-federal-funding-government
I’m a Jewish Israeli in the US standing up for Palestine. By Trump’s logic, I’m a terror supporter
Eran Zelnik
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/10/jewish-israeli-gaza-trump-protest-fascism
A far-right Zionist group built on a foundation of violence has been causing scenes of chaos at pro-Palestine rallies, writes Yaakov Aharon.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/zionist-fight-club-charity-removed-from-palestine-rally,19614
Trump was ‘the candidate of peace’. Now he’s fanning the flames of war. Mohamad Bazzi
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/10/trump-war-israel-gaza-ukraine-yemen
Sentiment Can Be Overrated–Trust Cannot. Trump Has Blinked In the Worst Possible Way. If this man cannot be trusted, the USA cannot be trusted. Draw your own conclusions. Phillips P.O’Brien
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/sentiment-can-be-overrated-trust
Here’s another sign Musk’s power is waning. The National Institutes of Health is the latest agency to break from Trump’s billionaire adviser.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/10/health-staffers-told-to-ignore-musks-missives-00283976
Ukraine allies hold talks to secure a non-existent peace. The coalition of the willing will start laying out potential contributions in writing.
https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-ukraine-allies-hold-talks-to-secure-a-non-existent-peace/
Ukraine lays out peacekeeping mission wish list. Kyiv needs Western troops on the ground to deter any future Russian attack, but the U.S. is sitting this out.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-kyiv-western-troop-peacekeaping-mission-russia/
Cartoon Time!
Cathy Wilcox
Simon Letch
Ben Jennings on Trump’s tariffs pause
From the Internet
Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social
I am but a humble cable news host with a bachelor’s in philosophy, but I feel like at some point the bond market is also going to notice that the GOP is going to pass a deficit financed 5 trillion dollar tax cut. Maybe?
Dennis Goris
Enjoy!
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/apr/08/uk-creating-prediction-tool-to-identify-people-most-likely-to-kill?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
This raises some questions, particularly regarding the ethics of the project. It’s weakness is the classic IT programming rule; GIGO. Garbage In, Garbage Out.
Predicting who is most likely to commit murder based on police data, health records, and other data on anyone who had contact with the police; criminal, victim, missing person, witness etc sounds dodgy to me.
To paraphrase Antony Green
The 2pp figures are useless when more than a third of voters are voting other than the majors
Combined major party vote is at 65.5% in this poll
Where does the collapsing LNP vote go? Hard to imagine we don’t end up with a larger cross bench #25in25
From my humble observations Dutton’s poor campaign is down to pure laziness. He’s been riding on the coat tails of Sky News and talkback radio for the past 3 years thinking that’s enough and has failed to put in the work necessary to prepare for this moment.
nath repeatedly said that if ALP lose the coming May federal election, they should dissolve and allow another centre-left party without union connections be formed.
@Ven
Meh. Nath has talked up the Greens but it’s very possible they could go backwards this election. By losing all three seats in Queensland (Brisbane, Ryan their not even favourites) and failing to gain Macnamara and Wills.
Also nath has talked up the Greens big youth vote. And suggested these votes will carry on voting Greens. Not necessarily some of these voters will have families. And suddenly what was priortiy in their youth (environment, assylum seekers, Palanstine) is not a priority anymore. And will be replaced with bread and butter issues (schools, bulk billing, mortgage relief) etc. I know people where this has happened and their priorities have changed over time.
Ok start for Min Woo Lee at -1 .
Rumours of the death of the L/NP are exaggerated…
S. Simpson says:
“From my humble observations Dutton’s poor campaign is down to pure laziness. He’s been riding on the coat tails of Sky News and talkback radio for the past 3 years thinking that’s enough and has failed to put in the work necessary to prepare for this moment.”
Agreed. Some amount of time needed to be spent on developing worthwhile policies.
He’s like Abbott: a good LOTO, but not up to leading the country.
Here’s one for Labor:
Dutton was not ready for the election with 3 years notice. How can he be ready to govern?
Man with big stick can you confirm if my donation just went through ? Not sure as I couldn’t then register a username for some reason ?
S.Simpson, you are quite correct – the Coalition have done little in the way of proper policy development work over the past 3 years. They’re just relying on the cheerleading they get from Sky News and various elements of the Murdoch press and talkback radio – 2GB in Sydney for example. And that Resolve poll of a few months ago which showed the Coalition on 55% made them very complacent and thinking they had the election in the bag.
sprocket_ @ #41 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 6:59 am
Andrew_Earlwood @ #47 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 7:08 am
Where’s nadia88 now?
First Lars Von Trier goes missing. Now nadia88. She’s usually onto the latest poll like a beaut.
Have they fallen through the two potholes here:
_._
#weatheronPB
Big, blue, patterned sky,
caught in an easy calmness.
A quiet moment,
before breathing out again.
“Hard Being Greensays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 8:01 am
To paraphrase Antony Green
The 2pp figures are useless when more than a third of voters are voting other than the majors
Combined major party vote is at 65.5% in this poll
Where does the collapsing LNP vote go? Hard to imagine we don’t end up with a larger cross bench #25in25”
If Labor and Coalition PVs are both around 32 / 33, there will almost certainly be an increased Labor majority.
As a second order of importance, there may even be an expanded cross bench as well, and it is certainly unlikely the teal component will be reduced (Greens on the other hand may be back to 1 or 2)
Increased Labor majority plus expanded cross bench would mean a significant decline in the conservative lower house seats.
It will mean a coalition in the next term that mostly likely unravel as it faces up to the electoral contradictions it has avoided confronting this century.
Good to see you ltep and Puff as well. Nice to see some old-timers posting during election season.
Australian anti-drone weapon trialled in Israel: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/australian-weapons-trialled-by-israel-military/105163388
@ Easy being Stupid (and wrong):
“To paraphrase Antony Green
The 2pp figures are useless when more than a third of voters are voting other than the majors
Combined major party vote is at 65.5% in this poll
Where does the collapsing LNP vote go? Hard to imagine we don’t end up with a larger cross bench #25in25”
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I’m going to go out on a limb and say that you are verballing Mr Green.
Young Antony knows how this thing called ‘compulsory preferential voting’ works. …. In fact, he – and others that swim in the deeper reaches of the pond can draw on decades of data to correlate 2PP with possible seat projections.
That being said, I wonder whether you are conflating some A Greens observations about 2PP polling at a state level in those systems – like NSW – where there is optional preferential voting; because as we have seen in the past three state elections final seat outcomes have skewed against Labor because of the high ‘exhausted’ vote: it almost certainly cost Labor an outright majority in 2022 (even though the final 2PP would have indicated a solid parliamentary majority), and probably cost Labor up to 6 seats in 2019 (and a shot at minority government, because the LNP would almost certainly have lost Dubbo to a high profile independent if the minor party – and Labor – votes didn’t exhaust before the final count: I reckon that with compulsory preferential voting, even with daley’s disastrous last week of campaigning, Labor would have ended up with between 40 and 42 seats, with the LNP being reduced from the 48 seat they won down to between 41 and 43, with 10 cross benchers holding the BoP and Labor with a clearer pathway to form government with the support of the Greens and a couple of centre-left Indis – perhaps with Greg Piper [a social conservative sitting in a traditional safe labor seat] being elected as Speaker). Anyhoo, I digress.
Hard Being Green says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 8:01 am
To paraphrase Antony Green
The 2pp figures are useless when more than a third of voters are voting other than the majors
Combined major party vote is at 65.5% in this poll
Where does the collapsing LNP vote go? Hard to imagine we don’t end up with a larger cross bench #25in25
___________
Does #25in25 denote a call for a larger cross bench? No discrimination between left and right? If so, why are you campaigning for hard right representation in parliament?
Horseshoes come to mind 😉
What the latest polls are showing is that is that Labor is in about the same position as it was at the time of the last election. That’s great – better than it was even a few weeks ago when polls were neck and neck. The Opposition’s campaign has been clumsy and inept, a situation that couldn’t be hidden even by a mostly supportive media. Trump’s idiocy has damaged the Coalition’s campaign..
But there are still three weeks to go. The Coalition is not going to be reduced to a rump, much as I’d love to see that happen. The result will be close, hopefully like last time a small Labor majority. It won’t be a big one. Minority Labor Government seems to be the more likely outcome, although with most of the money and power behind them, the Bad Guys can still win.
C@t, just as the Dutch quickly find themselves running out of vocabulary when trying to show off their command of English I believe Nadia88 may have suffered a similar fate here
Steve777 says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 8:31 am
What the latest polls are showing is that is that Labor is in about the same position as it was at the time of the last election. That’s great – better than it was even a few weeks ago when polls were neck and neck. The Opposition’s campaign has been clumsy and inept, a situation that couldn’t be hidden even by a mostly supportive media. Trump’s idiocy has damaged the Coalition’s campaign..
But there are still three weeks to go. The Coalition is not going to be reduced to a rump, much as I’d love to see that happen. The result will be close, hopefully like last time a small Labor majority. It won’t be a big one. Minority Labor Government seems to be the more likely outcome, although with most of the money and power behind them, the Bad Guys can still win.
_________
Agreed. If Labor is up in the polls, there are voters that could feel safe in registering a protest vote. This continues to be a fascinating election. Especially with the Kaiju running amok on the other side of the Pacific.
Looks like a dead cat bounce. Golf clap Trump and Co.