No signs of a let-up in the trend to Labor in the polls, with the latest YouGov poll putting their two-party lead at 52.5-47.5 based on a respondent-allocated measure of preferences, out from 51-49 last week. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up two), Coalition 33.5% (down one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (steady), One Nation 8.5% (up one-and-a-half) and Trumpet of Patriots 1% (down one). Anthony Albanese records personal ratings approaching net positive, with his approval up one to 45% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Peter Dutton is unchanged at 38% and 53%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 48-37, out from 45-38. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1505.
Today marks an important milestone in the election process with the declaration of nominations. Ballot paper draws will be conducted in Australian Electoral Commission offices around the country and full candidates lists published later in the day.
If the LNP need to shift resources into Dickson, that takes resources away from seats like Ryan or Brisbane.
It is a win win strategy for Albo – either they beat Dutton in his own seat, or they force the LNP to sandbag it.
One seat in Brisbane that always interests me is Forde – totally underrated this time, but it could be a smokie.
I can well believe Leftiebrawler about Gilmore too – the independent and the Greens will preference Fiona Phillips, and Constance is a proven underperforming dud.
The pendulum has some use but given swings are widely spread then any seat in a 5% margin either way can easily shift depending on candidate, local issues, sometimes demographic change, sometimes some scuttlebutt. Even some with more than 5%.
There will be a big focus on Dickson for next 3 weeks.
”
Wat Tylersays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 10:33 pm
pied piper @ #634 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 9:58 pm
Trump is destroying the sickness of the left aka democrats.
Doing well Trump.
Harris or Hillary just Trash.
This shit is more deranged than any derangement you accuse others of.
”
PP is absolutely triggered by whayI posted @10:14 pm and @10:26 pm. 🙂
Quentin Rountree at 9.11 pm
Clare Armstrong (a Murdoch journo who has won journalistic prizes) said on ABC TV that there was a distinct contrast between Dutton’s first week and his second. She was on the bus.
In the first week Dutton genuinely tried to answer most questions, albeit in his own way. He was unconvincing.
In his second week Dutton answered all questions with the same formula about prodding people into grievance.
Ms Armstrong said in two weeks there was only one occasion when Dutton got amongst ordinary people.
Conclusion: Dutton is distrusted because of his poor public image, which reflects poor policy formation rather than engagement with people.
The LNP thought they could ride on the coattails of Trump but people have had a secondhand taste of it and so they are not going to make many gains in the outer suburbs let alone teal seats. Barring a massive fuckup from Labor or some black swan event the govt will be re-elected in a position close to the position they are in now. The Liberals need to reposition to the centre, and Labor needs to act on issues like housing otherwise people will leave the both of them en masse soon.
The biggest risk to Dutton is dissident LNP people seeing an opportunity to take him down. Liberals against Nuclear or others upset enough to settle some scores.
Dr Doolittle @ #654 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 10:51 pm
Ah, Dutton trying out the Trump strategy, which hasn’t really worked out for anyone other than “Presidentrump” as his lickspittles refer to him.
dutton has been a stain on Australian politics for most of this century. Time for him to be sent a big NO.
What are duttons thoughts on detaining people at the airport? Does he agree with the Trump regime on their version of “freedom of speech”??
Please we don’t want this here.
Get the Liberals back on track – give Pete some R and R time out.
Who is funding the indie in Dickson? She isn’t a climate 200 one?
It’s clear that it is the ‘maga’ crowd that want to end our way of life, not the ‘woke’ crowd.
The latter just want everyone to be included.
sustainable snail @ #658 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 10:58 pm
Given the popularity of trash reality programs like Border Patrol, I reckon he’d be totally on board with stuff like that.
I mean, here’s this guy, a Trump voter, his wife was held in an ICE facility for 2 months, and when she was eventually released he still has no regrets in voting for Trump.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/04/07/trump-voter-detained-wife-released/82974307007/
It’s stories like this that make me realize that there really is no getting through to MAGA voters. They will drink the poison kool-aid if their God-King-Emperor tells them to.
One nation will play the feeder party to the LNP for MAGA style types. These aren’t the voters the LNP need as they are losing the centre, especially in this environment.
The days when Australia could assume itself to be immune from abusive treatment by USA because we were a “friend” are over. This story merits some comment to the US government.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/australian-with-us-working-visa-detained-insulted-deported
Kirsdarke says Friday, April 11, 2025 at 9:30 pm
I’m not sure if it’s been reported here but just this week Trump personally ordered an investigation into Chris Krebs and Miles Taylor.
Chris Krebs was the head of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and Miles Taylor was a former senior official in the Department of Homeland Security.
Krebs, a Republican, was fired by Trump in 2020 after asserting that there was no fraud in the 2020 election. He was also a witness in the Jan 6 hearings where he stated that “Republican officials, senior officials, including the former President, lied to the American people about the security of the 2020 election”.
Trump also revoked the security clearances of everyone working with Krebs current employer, SentinelOne.
Taylor was the author of the anonymous op-ed in 2018 that criticised the Trump White House.
He also signed an Executive Order imposing limits on the law firm Susman Godfrey. These were the lawyers who represented Dominion Voting Systems in its defamation cases over the 2020 election result.
Sources:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/09/donald-trump-retribution-miles-taylor-00007512
https://newrepublic.com/article/193854/trump-justice-dept-executive-order-taylor-krebs-authoritarian
https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/watch/-insane-authoritarian-stuff-trump-directs-justice-department-to-investigate-political-enemies-236962373955
A decade of the liberal and national coalition spending their time doing a fuck load of corruption whilst their callous nature destroyed the social fabric of Australia. That’s what happened. Some of us were paying attention and have memories (Let’s hope that is most of us). IT ONLY WAS 3 YEARS AGO!
Dr Doolittle hmm that probably explains a lot because Anthony Albanese being out in public so it seems me he’s out in public the more people like him whereas the more they see of Peter they don’t like him and also with two weeks into the campaign where in all honesty the whole should have been 52.5 for the liberals honestly I think people just don’t like him he wasn’t even popular in the first place
Dr Doolittle so what you’re saying people also hate the liberal policies they also hate the Liberal leader hmm honestly this is why I said the selection is not that easily winnable for the liberals they need to get the independent seats back in apparently someone said the yougov seats in The Red Bridge showing that there’s a swing back to labour listen I know we’re all scarred by 2019 and Trump 2024 but honestly 99% of the polling was correct the state election pollings were correct for most them Queensland polling got the swing back to labour so you know people need to keep calm I think Labour’s got this unless what the other posts has said something massive happens but honestly I don’t think labor’s gonna f*** it off if anything I would not be surprised if Labor polling gets even bigger lead over the course of the weeks
bc @ #665 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 11:20 pm
Yeah, stuff like that is scary, especially in that the usual flippant response of “Oh, that can’t happen here” gets more fragile by the day.
Indian Consulate In Melbourne Vandalised, Graffiti Discovered At Front Entrance
The Indian Consulate in Melbourne was vandalized with graffiti at its entrance early on April 10, probe underway.
https://www.republicworld.com/amp/world-news/indian-consulate-in-melbourne-vandalised-graffiti-discovered-at-front-entrance
So disappointed that the liberal and national party have not been dragged through the anti corruption commission. It actually was reported all over the media. It drove me nuts constantly that there was so much dodgy shit. It seems sadly that the corporate media can also just spin it out of our collective attention span. Meanwhile it dishes up married at first sight for us to be entertainingly gaslit.
Chris Minns very nearly lost his seat in the 2019 NSW election, 52% TPP versus Scott Yung (now the federal Liberal candidate for Bennelong). Then Minns was elected Leader of the Opposition. Come the 2023 election he romped home with 68% TPP, one of the largest swings in any seat. The ‘favourite son’ effect and increased publicity of being LOTO definitely boosted his margin.
Dutton isn’t going anywhere.
Re King O’Malley @10:17. Showing your age: https://youtu.be/q4HZcUGPr3A?si=TQnnOA2vrwOegoOG
From the days when petrol was 45¢ a gallon (10¢ / litre) and driveway service was a thing.
Political Nightwatchman says Friday, April 11, 2025 at 10:22 pm
Given some of the Coalition’s more recent Senators, Roberts might be the saner option than the LNP alternative.
Whenever I see Dutton at a servo I’m instantly reminded of Navin at the gas station.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5jTH89HjTA
The constant petrol stations are pathetic
The only thing dutton could dance well is the robot dance
No one mention voldemorte we might get sued
Steve777 well played.
would you be labelled woke if you thought it was unfair to pick on peter dutton?
Steve777 says Friday, April 11, 2025 at 11:42 pm
That brings back memories of Alvin Purple 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6VWNssG7VA
sustainable snail @ #680 Saturday, April 12th, 2025 – 12:21 am
Pretty much, yes. In fact if he wins then I think it’s likely he’ll make it law to not pick on him, as people like him in history have done.
ScromoII says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 10:43 pm
Other Liberals have the advantage of not being Dutton. This is a fact he cannot avoid. It will be his undoing in Dickson.
“Kirsdarke says:
Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 12:26 am
sustainable snail @ #680 Saturday, April 12th, 2025 – 12:21 am
would you be labelled woke if you thought it was unfair to pick on peter dutton?
Pretty much, yes. In fact if he wins then I think it’s likely he’ll make it law to not pick on him, as people like him in history have done.”
We are the canaries in the coalmine. They won’t stop opening them.
George Conway
@gtconway.bsky.social
Follow
I don’t understand what’s so hard about “Don’t vote for bad people who do bad things.”
https://bsky.app/profile/gtconway.bsky.social/post/3lmk4nhknd22x
@Trent: “It has literally not been mentioned once in their campaign this year or previous years, I would actually say that unlike seats like Wills, the Macnamara Greens actively avoid the issue.”
The Macnamara Greens may be avoiding the issue locally after being burned by a literal arson attack; they just rely on their leadership bringing it up all the time instead so Labor has to defend against it (simultaneously the Liberals are bringing it up locally to attack from the other end). Accusing the Prime Minister of being pro genocide. That kind of thing. As you say in seats like Wills where the ethnic/religious mix is different the Greens have no compunction playing that card locally as well, so don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining to blame Labor for bringing it up. Labor would love to never hear about it again, it’s purely being brought up as a stick to beat Labor from both ends of the horseshoe for remaining committed to the two state solution and not being wholly behind one side or the other.
I have no particular views on what suburbs belong with what other suburbs in seats, it’s all a bit esoteric and arbitrary to me, but you have the right to make your own submission to the AEC if you feel so strongly that Macnamara needs another boundary change. My point remains that it is a baffling reason to use to support a Greens vote since the Greens winning the seat or not makes no difference to the AEC’s next decision on boundaries.
Sorry, meant to include this bit too:
“The Israel issue always comes up by OTHER parties attacking the Greens, not by the Greens bringing it up”
This is extremely, extremely untrue. I’m gobsmacked that you could write it with a straight face. Bandt, Shoebridge et al have been the aggressor on this issue and in terms even nastier than Dutton which takes some doing.
Bandt backed off some of his nastiest language once he got some polling in which said it was going over badly with parts of the Green voter base, but he hasn’t backed off THAT far.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/australian-with-us-working-visa-detained-insulted-deported
very concerning
@sustainable snail:
“So disappointed that the liberal and national party have not been dragged through the anti corruption commission”
The goal of the NACC shouldn’t have been to look like a party political witchhunt aimed at one party, but it’s still disappointing they don’t yet have a major scalp at least going to trial if not convicted yet. They have several convictions but it is all rats and mice stuff, no big names, and the stuff with Brereton and the robodebt investigation burned their goodwill unfortunately…. that’s very bad luck, on paper Brereton should have been a great choice to head up the commission.
The NACC should have sent multiple people to jail for Robodebt. Instead it destroyed it’s own credibility and Labor might as well have never even bothered.
The Yanks are clearly saying “F**k you” to the rest of the World. The morons and bigots and rednecks have finally gotten their way.
Pretty soon the message will sink in. We’re going to have to make do without them.
So polymarket now has Labor at 77-78% likely to win.
Last big bet agency odds I heard were 1.28 to 3.66 which gives Labor an implied probability of 3.66 / (1.28 + 3.66) = 3.66 / 4.94 = 0.74 = 74%
I think their chances are probably greater than that.
Australian Election Forecast has
Labor Majority = 37%
Labor Minority = 20.5%
(Think this calculation only accounts for support of Greens and Wilkie)
Labor Most Seats = 20%
Coalition Most Seats = 12%
Coalition Minority = 2% (presumably just counting Katter)
Coalition Majority = 8%
And I think in most ‘Coalition most seats’ scenarios Labor would be more likely to form Government.
So I think their modelling would be more like 85% Labor forming government.
And I think their ‘nowcast’ (like Nate Silver does) would put that figure well over 90%.
At the start of this year I felt Labor could probably scrape into minority government if they got 49% TPP. It would seem more likely now they will get at least 50 if not 51. And that in my view makes it almost impossible for the Coalition to form government unless by some miracle they win back all the Teal seats and don’t lose any other seats to Teals / Indepemdents.
If Labor do form Government and there are a similar numbers of crossbenchers elected as in 2022, with most of them pretty anti-Coalition, the Coalition are going to have something akin to a ‘wall’ blocking them from
government for some time perhaps.
BB
Yep – not planning to go to USA in near future but if I do I think I’ll get a new phone and order a new USA SIM card before I go. I basically have no social media accounts so unless they ‘heavy’ William about my presence here I would hopefully be safe!
On Petrol Pete’s latest idea in making Australia a dumping ground for carmakers’ least efficient cars – I can’t see it gaining him any new votes, and also it just reinforces his image as a ‘mini-Trump’ wannabe.
And as for the daily petrol station appearances – I think most people are pretty cynical about petrol prices and any promises to reduce them (especially if only a temporary reduction). And doing this every day just makes it seem like his entire campaign has run out of any other ideas. Which maybe it has.
David Rowe
New thread.
https://www.cnet.com/home/internet/the-fiber-advantage-for-homeowners-faster-and-futureproof-but-unequal/, …
Despite nbn+/ NBN-/ Telstra’s Ugly Sister supposedly being the national broadband network, copper zoning 1 to 3 (as in 70%, 15%, 15% of population) wasn’t all that different, effectively between 2027 to 2030, what will emerge is all fibre/ HFC in extended metro. Near Gbps going multiples of Gbps.
Either side of the aisle fed gov will tap into LNG royalties/ charges to fund a range of programs.
Inner regional will go all fibre, discarding fibre copper. Meanwhile stuck on below an average 80 Mbps.
Outer regional’s already on 5G LTE mmW FTW, bursting to 200 Mbps, may be 400 Mbps. Will be further improved.
Mobile blackspots will start to be addressed using satellite to cellphone direct service, leveraging LTE on most phones. Right now 2GSM/ 3G/ UMTS population coverage isn’t outdone by 4G LTE/ 5G LTE mmW.
Rural, some have gone FTW, and remote will get multi-orbit Nbnco GEO Sky Muster/ Amazon LEO Kuiper FSW. Right now it is either Nbnco bursting through 100 Mbps as the value option, or LEO Starlink for the performance option. I noticed the other day kit with a minimum one year contract’s going to be included.