No signs of a let-up in the trend to Labor in the polls, with the latest YouGov poll putting their two-party lead at 52.5-47.5 based on a respondent-allocated measure of preferences, out from 51-49 last week. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up two), Coalition 33.5% (down one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (steady), One Nation 8.5% (up one-and-a-half) and Trumpet of Patriots 1% (down one). Anthony Albanese records personal ratings approaching net positive, with his approval up one to 45% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Peter Dutton is unchanged at 38% and 53%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 48-37, out from 45-38. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1505.
Today marks an important milestone in the election process with the declaration of nominations. Ballot paper draws will be conducted in Australian Electoral Commission offices around the country and full candidates lists published later in the day.
Labor has concentrated a few member emails on Dickson being winnable as fundraiser clickbait. But only the true believers think Dickson is in play for Labor.
“Woke” is just a term of abuse used by the Right against people and ideas they don’t like, like “Socialist”. It means “poopy head”.
Can confirm even the Libs own latest internal which was captured over the last 72 hours has Gilmore tied 50/50 2pp. Ours reported 50.9-49.1 to Labor earlier in the week.
Gilmore is the most marginal Labor seat in the country. Jesus it’s really starting to fall apart for the libs
citizen @ #578 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 8:54 pm
So that’s Game Over.
Where does Trump go from here?
kirsdarke:
Yes, I understood that, but only because I have some limited German language knowledge.
But work makes you woke? If anything the Trump admin is going back to the old religious ways of preferencing manual labor over white collar workers as being somewhat preferable.
Antony:
Senate candidates down from 421 to 330 and the number of ballot paper groups down from 151 to 118. All candidates loaded for each state and territory in ballot paper order on my ABC election guide.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guides
You passed the test, again, Katich
https://youtu.be/fye1XtXQn9s?si=zdFLsgpVVP52wcpx
I can’t see to download the AEC lists of candidates and ballots without a Microsoft account via copilot. What is going on AEC
The nexus referendum was supported by the 2 majors but opposed by the DLP with the counterintuitive argument that it would increase the number of politicians. The DLP saw the result as a great victory.
“Liberal candidate in hot water for giving Easter eggs to public outside school”
School principals are sending out warnings to the community about liberal party candidates.
The CSIRO have sent out a warning about the nuclear power policy of the liberal party.
Millions could no longer roll their eyes at the liberal party a bloody long time ago.
Confessions @ #604 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 9:35 pm
Ah, okay. I meant the sentiment of “Work Makes You Free From Woke”, implying that surrendering yourself to a brutal concentration camp system would make you free from “Wokeness™” would be the option that Trump’s lot are trying to impose on those that don’t like him.
Thanks Hh – ABC site has it up.
Good draw for Labor in SA donkey vote v Libs in both Sturt and Boothby
C@tmomma says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 4:41 pm
The WSJ is reporting that Trump caved on Tariffs because he feared a DEPRESSION.
His or the US?
Coal industry astroturfing group “Australians for Prosperity” directed by AEC to delete last 2 months of social media content:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-11/australians-for-prosperity-removes-posts-after-aec-intervention/105156612?utm_medium=social&utm_content=sf276931835&utm_campaign=tw_abc_news&utm_source=t.co&fbclid=IwY2xjawJl319leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHok12fnjwFEAZ8nmr7ta2U7manTytTJt9-HN5v7VxnMFIu9cAlvREoQ33HDl_aem_cxIbZlIsEmgL6Q_aJYPOeg
Kirs:
It all comes down to this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xqZrL4XWEs&ab_channel=ArcadeFireVEVO
sealionsays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 9:43 pm
C@tmomma says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 4:41 pm
The WSJ is reporting that Trump caved on Tariffs because he feared a DEPRESSION.
His or the US?
===================================================
While both is likely. The only one that Trump would care about would be his own.
“True. And this is the crux of our current problems.
Labor need a backbone injection.”
@Player One
Player One having crocodile tears about Labor needs a backbone. While he has his Liberal party poms poms out defending Blocker Peter Dutton for wrecking the Voice because Labor didn’t consult with him enough. Sometimes life is not fair.
leftieBrawler hey if you have inside information about how lab is going how do you how is the campaign temperature are they feeling good where they like hey we could get minority before the election campaign begin but now they’re majority because I have a feeling that the coalition campaigns just giving up on this election
Kirs,
“Also Palmer’s Fart Party or whatever they were snuck in another 50 candidates without any fanfare.”
Subtle. I like it.
Historical 2PP LNP vote in Dickson since 2004:
2022 51.7%
2019 54.6%
2016 51.6%
2013 56.7%
2010 55.1%
2007 50.1%
2004 57.8%
(source: Wikipedia)
“Also Palmer’s Fart Party or whatever they were snuck in another 50 candidates without any fanfare.”
==============================================
Muted trumpets?
It looks like Ellie Smith is causing Dutton some palpitations in Dickson.
Surely the Libs putting up attack adds are just adding to her name recognition?
@Arky, I disagree with that about the Greens being the only ones making Israel & Palestine an issue in Macnamara.
It has literally not been mentioned once in their campaign this year or previous years, I would actually say that unlike seats like Wills, the Macnamara Greens actively avoid the issue.
The Israel issue always comes up by OTHER parties attacking the Greens, not by the Greens bringing it up. There is no way for the Greens to avoid this, it’s simply the fact that they are competitive that makes it a focus.
The main reason I want the Greens to win is because I most align with their policy platform, but an added bonus if they win is also the satisfaction of seeing certain organisations reap what what sow for successfully opposing two redistribution proposals to remove Caulfield which ended up being reversed. They knew the Greens could win the seat and for some reason still fought tooth & nail to stay in it.
Having the same groups who opposed those redistributions end up beiny represented by a Greens MP would be hilarious.
But I think everyone can agree that regardless of who they want to win the seat, Caulfield absolutely does not belong in the same seat as South Melbourne, Southbank and St Kilda. It belongs with suburbs like Malvern, Armadale and Murrumbeena.
Candidates in ballot paper order are up on my election guide, at least for the lower house:
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/
Guys
Let us see what Trump and his incompetent cabinet did since he came to power on January 21st
1. He/ they destroyed US federal government through DOGE
2. Exposed US national security and put National security institutions under foreign threat by using commercial communications like Signal and Gmail.
3. Caused global economic meltdown by imposing tariffs on each and every country on earth Willy Nilly and then paused them for 90 days for all countries except China after markets and US government bonds went crazy.
Each on its own is catastrophic event of historic proportions and colossal blunder. Trump is seriously destroying America.
Trump even might have exceeded Putin estimated destruction of USA.
That Dutton will have the same attitude in government, if elected, sends shivers down my spine.
YOU STILL DON’T SEEM TO GET THE FULL HORROR OF TRUMP REGIME.
Holdenhillbilly at 7.35 pm, B.S. Fairman at 8.47 pm
Local factors need to be considered to make sense of an electoral pendulum.
Northern Tassie shows why. Margin for Braddon is 8%, while margin for Bass is only 1.4%.
Yet it would be surprising for Labor to win Bass without winning Braddon.
Bridget Archer could still be brought down by Dutton’s lack of policies, despite her local popularity.
But Mal Hingston is more likely to lose Braddon, because his opponent is a Labor senator based in Ulverstone, Anne Urquhart, better known than him.
As for Lambie, why is she not being supported by HoR candidates?
Two reasons. First, she lacks the money to fund their campaigns.
Second, her personnel chaos has probably alienated her volunteers.
Hence why she is determined to be even more “in your face” than usual in her media appearances. It is her art of campaigning. So long as there are many low-info voters, she may win.
Entropy @ #621 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 9:54 pm
Probably this but with candidates who have healthy gastrointestinal tracts.
Trivia question; why would Dutton’s new nickname be “Stanley”?
Hint: see Catmomma’s recent comment on Dutton’s umpteenth servo pump stunt.
““Also Palmer’s Fart Party or whatever they were snuck in another 50 candidates without any fanfare.”
==============================================
Muted trumpets?”
While we are talking about the far Right and Queensland. Anyone think One Nation Malcolm Roberts will lose his senate seat? Politcal expert Paul Williams thought he likely would.
Labor is likely to win back a second senate seat this election in Queensland. After its disastrous performance in 2019 which takes another senate spot. And Palmer’s Trumpet of Parrot’s and Campbell (how did I blow 78 seats) Newman’s Libertarian party in the mix splitting the vote, Roberts may struggle.
William at 10.05 pm
Thanks, that’s very helpful.
Only a couple of close seat examples were mentioned on ABC TV news.
Fiona Phillips has top spot in Gilmore. There is an independent from Berry who will probably get between 10 and 15 %. She opposes the nonsense of nuclear power promoted by climate science defector Andrew Constance.
While the margin is very small, Labor could retain Gilmore with those two factors, plus Constance’s hubris.
The Braddon margin is artificially large because the 2022 Labor candidate turned out to have some baggage (in the form of an old drug conviction); it’s probably more realistically viewed as a 3-4% seat than an 8% one. Labor obviously think they’re competitive in it.
What Trump did regarding Tarriffs is 10 times worse than what Truss and Kwarteng did to UK.
It is dawning on me slowly what an awful situation US and the world are in.
We need a competent and stable federal government in the next 3 years to navigate these international murky waters.
Whether people like it and accept it or not only a majority ALP government can provide that . No other party or a combination of that can do that.
It is probably something equivalent to GFC, COVID put together.
What are the chances of Dutton losing his seat? I think with his hard arse, wannabe dictator vibe, have a feeling he is in serious danger of losing his seat as people search for more “normal” looking people. It may act like Warringah did with Abbott given Dutton’s personality.
Trump is destroying the sickness of the left aka democrats.
Doing well Trump.
Harris or Hillary just Trash.
A rabble for three years federal labor.
Go down to Richmond in Victoria to see Australia’s version of fentanyl crisis.Except its meth etc.Labor state gov.
Political Nightwatchman @ #629 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 10:22 pm
Honestly I think it’s going to be a close one between Malcolm Roberts and Stuart Fraser of the LNP for the 6th Queensland seat.
Easily 2 seats for the LNP and 1 seat for Labor, next up, probably going to be 2nd Labor and Larissa Waters for the Greens, and last up is either One Nation or LNP-3.
pied piper says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 10:28 pm
Trump is destroying the sickness of the left aka democrats.
Doing well Trump.
Harris or Hillary just Trash.
———
Who are you planning to vote for at the election?
I was going to lament that in Spence, like 2022, once you take Labor, Liberal and Greens out of the mix, it’s only far right candidates but there’s someone from Animal Justice (which I think leans left), so at least there’s a little more variety this time (and I won’t have to put the Liberal Party at #3)
pied piper @ #634 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 9:58 pm
This shit is more deranged than any derangement you accuse others of.
Checking a few key seats that have had a donkey vote flip – ie to Labor 2025, against Labor 2022. Dickson, Boothby, Lingiari, Leichardt and others.
This effectively changes margin by at least 1% cf 2022. Dutton 1.7% would now be more like 0.5%.
sealionsays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 9:43 pm
C@tmomma says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 4:41 pm
The WSJ is reporting that Trump caved on Tariffs because he feared a DEPRESSION.
His or the US?
Wonder how his coke habit is going now?
Wat, I had no idea you lived in the northern suburbs of Adelaide.!why didn’t you say something earlier. We can get you out!
Wat Tyler @ #638 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 10:33 pm
Hear hear. Honestly at this point it’s like “Please ignore the dog in the backyard yelping as he chomps at his own bollocks, we honestly don’t know how to deal with him.”
Nothing wrong with Spence people nath. Maybe you could drop in sometime. Don’t suppose you made it to Adelaie tonight to see the Pies win?
I’m living out here because I’ve been caring for an older relative who lives here for the last few years.
It’s not ideal. I miss pretty much every other place I’ve lived.
“Checking a few key seats that have had a donkey vote flip – ie to Labor 2025, against Labor 2022. Dickson, Boothby, Lingiari, Leichardt and others.
This effectively changes margin by at least 1% cf 2022. Dutton 1.7% would now be more like 0.5%.”
Yes, but Dutton is now the leader of the Liberal Party where he wasn’t before, and that will help him compared to the previous elections. It would take a walloping of national proportions before Dutton loses his seat. Dutton is also expected to stay on as Liberal leader unless Labor gets a bigger majority than last time (unlikely) and win the next election in a landslide, perhaps in less than a year.
“Labor has concentrated a few member emails on Dickson being winnable as fundraiser clickbait. But only the true believers think Dickson is in play for Labor.”
@Confessions
I’m sceptical of this too. But the fundraising is for the seat not the party’s national campaign. And I will say this if Labor is up in the national polls then marginal seats have to start popping up on the pendulum. It can’t be just Lib gain here, here, and here if there struggling polling wise nationally. Something’s gotta give.
“Kooyong: High-profile Liberal candidate who pitched herself as a renter admits she owns two properties”
She is so edgy. She also listened to Oasis.
Spence I rarely leave Melbourne. I was 15 before I ventured out past the tram network.
“Yes, but Dutton is now the leader of the Liberal Party where he wasn’t before, and that will help him compared to the previous elections. It would take a walloping of national proportions before Dutton loses his seat. Dutton is also expected to stay on as Liberal leader unless Labor gets a bigger majority than last time (unlikely) and win the next election in a landslide, perhaps in less than a year.”
Sorry scroboll, that seems to be a bigger argument for people to really think about voting him out for good.
Wat. Caring is tough mate. I’ve been there and for a few years. Get your respite if you can.