No signs of a let-up in the trend to Labor in the polls, with the latest YouGov poll putting their two-party lead at 52.5-47.5 based on a respondent-allocated measure of preferences, out from 51-49 last week. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up two), Coalition 33.5% (down one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (steady), One Nation 8.5% (up one-and-a-half) and Trumpet of Patriots 1% (down one). Anthony Albanese records personal ratings approaching net positive, with his approval up one to 45% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Peter Dutton is unchanged at 38% and 53%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 48-37, out from 45-38. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1505.
Today marks an important milestone in the election process with the declaration of nominations. Ballot paper draws will be conducted in Australian Electoral Commission offices around the country and full candidates lists published later in the day.
Why Trump’s approval rating is still so high: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oWwX-KvewBo
Labor are evidently on course for a convincing win….the Reactionaries likely to return fewer than 50 members. The flight to safety – evident in the property market, in equities, bonds, currencies, commodities and equally so in political choices – will become more pronounced in the coming weeks. It might be that the Liberals lose most of their seats….a very fitting result if it occurs. They should then consider dissolving themselves.
The Liberal Party is barely an Australian political expression these days. It is a hollowed out, vacuous remnant trying to imitate a criminally-led psychotic hate-mongering outfit in the US.
They have no business sitting in the Parliament of the Commonwealth.
I see
These are tremendous numbers for Labor so close to pre-polls opening and only 3 weeks out from election day itself. They’ll be pinching themselves.
What do you see ?
Will Dutton get this scared?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YA1Q63iJG2A
William you’re on fire with the frequency and up tick of these now bi-daily open threads.
Now I’ve got to also keep an eye on you as well as entropy with the instant coffee jar.
William are you still onto maintain your fairly cautious and conservative outlook for Labor re final reps tally?.
Watch for many pludgers to now revise there own predictions for this down from their low 70s to high 60s for Friday in the wake of this 52.5-47.5 you gov to Labor.
By midday tomorrow general consensus at PB will move to 50-50 toss up for either lib /lab minority. Ven, paul A and scrioll will suggest this you gov data points heavily to the trumpets winning the hunter and Grayndler outright.
Player 1 is no doubt trying to summon the voices to provide her with compelling and factual talking points as to why this yougov is actually saying that Albanese is the worst PM in history and that Constance will win Gilmore with a 2pp of 75-25.
If the uniformity in these polling trends continue right up to D day I can’t see how Labor could end up with anything lower than 79-80. I still think 83 is within the upper bands of my estimates.
The trumpets, ONP and to a lesser extent the greens will be bloodied and bruised on the night. In these troubled times the electorate will continue it’s love of incumbency and also sanity which is contrasted with the lunacy and insanity of the alternative LNP option.
Trifecta
PB 50.9 (Bludgertrack)
KB 50.9 (Kevin Bonham)
AEF 51.0 (Australian Electoral Forecasts -‘Nowcast’)
S&P 500 and Dow Jones both down 5% in first three hours of trading.
Bizarre
frednk @ #7 Friday, April 11th, 2025 – 2:19 am
pierre poolever is going down just like the dud spud radioactive glow-in-the dark potato
temu trump dutton 😆
I don’t recall having an outlook about Labor’s House of Reps tally.
Rocket perhaps both bonham’s and Bowe’s current tracking numbers are corrupted by historical data a month or more old. That would make sense and suggest they are both rogue outliers now to a certain extent.
This is why I prefer to take the small sample weekly seat tracking surveys as a better metric to gauge where we are at. Granted the small sample sizes make them vulnerable to corruption however if you are receiving multiple weekly numbers that all support a broad trend it is usually pretty reliable. And being weekly surveys they aren’t impaired by historical data that one might be still feeding into their methodologies
Live dangerously William and throw us a number. You know you want to!
Relief rally is over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Xfz0eOcu0
The LNP vehicle fuel efficiency announcements are confusing at best and reek of desperation.
The nuclear gambit seemingly “dead in the water” not long after it was proposed with very little acknowledgement of the importance of water in the processes.
And it is interesting to predict how the “Trump”, both first and second comings, will be recorded historically.
Certainly what many Americans are seeing is not what many non Americans are seeing.
The Dutton experiment seems to have floundered quite spectacularly as the election approaches and at this stage it’s difficult to see a dramatic change in direction for Mr Dutton’s fortunes.
So many things are changing on many levels across the globe, Mr Dutton and the Liberals have missed the departure.
Interesting enough the Nationals supporters from the bush have most to gain from the technology and energy revolution occurring in all aspects of life, with much more to come for “little earth”.
Hopefully the dominant occupiers of the earth don’t destroy the place in their quest for significance.
Rocket Rocket says Friday, April 11, 2025 at 2:29 am
I was surprised they recovered so much yesterday, I put it down to irrational enthusiasm. Trump didn’t reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, so the prospect of a very damaging trade war is still there. The US needs Chinese manufacturing much more then China needs US goods.
Trumps 10% tariff on everyone is also still there, and that’s going to be inflationary and a drag on the economy. Trump doesn’t want to get rid of that because he needs the revenue to pay for his tax cut.
While there will be many enjoyable instances of my laughing at the misfortune of others as the returns come in on election night I will be saving the biggest for a couple of events in particular-
1) Watching several sitting Greens start the day off as smug and urbane, and ending it as bloodied and homeless as Labor reclaims what is rightfully hers.
2) Palmer failing to reach the magic 4% mark in any seat or senate count.
3) P1’s meltdown at the realisation of thousands of dollars in lost revenue at the eco resort which she closed to host the Constance team election night party-open bar, canapés and all.
On these YouGov numbers, the Coalition are down more than 2% on last election first preferences and the ALP down about .5%.
On the 2PP the ALP is up slightly on last election whilst the Coalition is down slightly.
In my opinion, no matter which way you look at these numbers, the Coalition look doomed and it would take a monumental stuff up by the ALP not to form a majority Government.
I’d think Labor is on track for minority govt in a strong enough position where they have many options on the crossbench to get legislation through the House of Reps or regain a small majority if they can maintain their primary vote at about 2022 levels.
Trump has loomed large over the campaign, put the options in perspective and has not allowed Dutton to run his campaign the way he would have liked to. As it’s turned out a May election looks to be if anything working in Labor’s favour.
Dutton’s campaign has been amateurish and what’s going on in the background just adds to the LNP’s problems.
The LNP vehicle fuel efficiency announcements are confusing at best and reek of desperation.
Playing to the hoons and the Bogan Tradies isn’t working out too well really.
Dutton’s campaign has been amateurish and what’s going on in the background just adds to the LNP’s problems.
I think we’re going to find out all about it when Niki Savva writes her next book.
Important to note: these are the first numbers wholly since “Liberation Day”. Other polls were partly before. The 33 LNP primary number is a killer.
As I suggested, this started showing up in internal tracking polls on the weekend. Therefore it explains Dutton’s backflips.
All I want to say to people in the ALP ( a was a member at university, but let it slip) that are the driving QLD campaign is this:
in 2012, Labor lost power with 6-7seats …
in 2024, they lost power and held 36 seats ( including Mansfield, Aspley, Mt Ommaney< Springwood, Cooper, Greenslopes, Ferny Hills, even they won South Brisbane…even Gavan..?
People in Brisbane, with reason or fear, will vote for Labor.
I get concerned when I hear about wasting $ outside of Brisbane: Brisbane stuck with Labor at the 2024 elections; that was not the case outside Brisbane.
I'd like for to Labor to win Capricornia, Leichardt, Hinkler, Flynn.. of course, but focus on Brisbane, as they gave you their votes even when the state government was dying.
there's a good 6-8 seats around Brisbane that right now should be very vulnerable, as Labor keeps going upwards in the TPP.
Don't be silly, and just focus on Greens seats; but the fact that they won three seats last election should tell you that seats CAN FALL IN QUEENSLAND IF YOU PUSH HARD ENOUGH.
including, Mr ' I don't know how to act normal when I've just bloodied your face' Duttons seat, held on a very, very, very, very tiny 1.7 %.
Labor: please focus on QLD, if the TPP vote is 52.5% – and increasing in every poll – well, like Howard with the Tampa/ terrorist attack on the US… Labor now is the party in power while very bad things or a real 'black swan event' has happened (i.e. Trump election, stock market collapse) and they can deservedly ( honestly, like has Mr Dutton or his colleagues done any , any homework in 3 years ( 36 months) ? … uhhh , no) AND THEY MUST push into territory that for years has eluded it.
And, thank you Shaun Carney for finally amongst the Australian media be willing to call out Dutton's disrespectful, lazy and divisive leadership as the crazy scam it has been ( let's not forget Jane 'caravan anecdote' Hume) and Angus ( Rhodes scholar"!!!! seriously, what are the standards ?????????????????????????!) all along . AND, NUCLEAR POWER? WHOEVER SAID THEY WANTED THAT ????!. NO ONE, THAT I' VE EVER MET. And, yeah, I do mix with diverse crowds.
Let's think about Queensland:
Dickson: held by Labor 1998-2001 ( Cheryl Kernot);
Petrie: held by Yvette D'ath from 2007-2013;
Bonner: held by Kerry Rea from 2007-2010;
Longman: held by Susan Lamb from 2016-2019;AND EARLIER FROM 2007-2010 by Jon Sullivan;
Forde: held by Brett Laguse from 2007-2010;
Bowman: Labor came within 1% of winning in 2007;
Clearly right now Labor is in the BOX SEAT; how how about they act like it and sweep all these 'waiting to fall' QLD seats.. at 52.5% Labor, and I expect it go higher, Labor needs to brutalise their opponents like they would do themselves.
Come on : take back these Brisbane seats: it's so so so long overdue.
PLEASE MAKE A BIG EFFORT !!!!!!
It looks like a win coming up for Labor.
I hope so because the very thought of Dutton and his maga-infected party taking Australia down the orange pumpkin path is nauseating.
There is no mythical swing in Victoria to the lib/nats from Labor or non lib/nats members, why the federal lib/nats are likely to lose more seats than Labor in Victoria
Just musing about “fairness” and equal time on the media: we need to recognise that the major parties are becoming less significant. That’s especially so for whomever comes in second – likely not far ahead of third place.
After the next government is formed, I’d like the ABC especially to give equal time to all the non-government parties in proportion to their result. In the current parliament that means that Adam Bandt and Pauline Hanson need better presence, and a fair go needs to be given to the Teals – and even Clive Palmer – at the expense of the ridiculous elevation in status we now see of the rump LNP.
The primary votes are Coalition 33.5% (down one-and-a-half),
————————————————————–
if this poll is accurate that is a 2.2% swing against the federal lib/nats, from the 2022 federal election
The federal lib/nats 43-46 seats in the house of reps
mj says:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 5:28 am
I’d think Labor is on track for minority govt in a strong enough position where they have many options on the crossbench to get legislation through the House of Reps or regain a small majority if they can maintain their primary vote at about 2022 levels.
———————————————
If the federal lib/nats combined primary vote is 33.5%
Labor is heading towards the biggest increase in majority for a first term government , in Australia’s political history
“Luigi Smithsays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 6:24 am
Just musing about “fairness” and equal time on the media: we need to recognise that the major parties are becoming less significant. That’s especially so for whomever comes in second – likely not far ahead of third place.
After the next government is formed, I’d like the ABC especially to give equal time to all the non-government parties in proportion to their result. In the current parliament that means that Adam Bandt and Pauline Hanson need better presence, and a fair go needs to be given to the Teals – and even Clive Palmer – at the expense of the ridiculous elevation in status we now see of the rump LNP.”
Surely the Teals get far more air time than the Greens given they have far more seats?
And fortunately due to the electoral reforms, Clive Palmer is probably at his last election where he gets over 1/100th of the vote
Rocket Rocketsays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 2:29 am
S&P 500 and Dow Jones both down 5% in first three hours of trading.
Bizarre
—————————–
Market doesn’t go in a straight line and yesterday was a technical bounce and the market is headline driven and Trump keeps giving mixed messages.
There was panic buying on Wednesday. A more sober look saw that things were all sunshine and lollipops.
Fund Managers Worry Trump Might Be “Insane”
Donald Trump’s moves are making people who actually understand the economy very nervous.
As Donald Trump’s tariff plan slams the stock market, investors are beginning to wonder if the president doesn’t have some broader economic agenda—but rather if he’s just mentally ill.
“In the last few days, we have had many conversations with macro fund managers,” wrote Tom Lee, the head of research at the financial analysis firm FSInsights.
“And their concern is that the White House is not acting rationally, but rather on ideology. And some even fear that this may not even be ideology,” Lee continued. “A few have quietly wondered if the President might be insane.”
https://newrepublic.com/post/193805/donald-trump-investors-freak-out-economic-policies
Hi Damon they began thinking about Queensland 2 weeks ago. It was all conditional on internal data from Melbourne suggesting a recovery in the 2pp and consistently improving seat by seat sets.
That’s been confirmed and supposedly the added bonus of an Atlantic salmon seat.
The Queensland offensive our cane toad comrades have embarked upon is equally as impressive as it is cunning.
There is some happy hunting to be done not just in Brisbane but also regions right up to Leichhardt. Warren entsch is a throughly decent human being and the greatest regional QLD MP Labor never had. He’s held a seat founded by working class unionist sugar industry workers on his personal popularity alone and I suspect it will be a fairly low hanging fruit for Labor.
Also hot off the press I’m hearing today that the PM or the treasurer will head up to Kennedy very soon with a possible bag of goodies or mid tier project. Kennedy will be a wildcard to watch. Bob Katter has run his race and his primary vote has been deflating over the last few cycles. This would be a great strategic pick up for Labor- fuck Katter off, sandbag and pork the living daylights out of it and start creating newly minted Labor seats north of Brisbane which has been the torment of the state executive for 2 decades.
I credit former Premier Stephen Miles for this new found optimism in QLD. The former union corridor crawler was only supposed to be the patsy serving out the arse end of Labor’s decade of power but instead went off script by saving more than just the furniture and ensuring that David spaghetti and the LNP will be little more than a one term wonder. Miles will be given his pick of seats federally in 2028. He may be a future federate parliamentary leader.
Paul Krugman…
Question of the day: Does the 10 percent rate still apply to the penguins of the Heard and McDonald islands?
University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers….
“US government bonds, that’s how we fund the government debt, typically regarded as the safest asset in the world because the US government is in charge of an amazing economy and we’d never screw things up.
And safe is the important word here. Like an investment advisor would tell you, do you want to be safe? Do you want to rest easy?
Safety. It’s our safe space. It’s our economic safe space.
It’s the only thing safer than money under the mattress.
Yes, money under, right, right, right.”
I think money under the mattress is the best bet
I’m wondering if part of the decline in the coalition primary vote is due to voters in regional and rural electorates transferring their loyalty from the Nationals to independents.
Would be nice if the Nationals got smashed – one right in the eye for Gina.
We may see the whole electoral landscape rewritten this election
This is a comedy piece..
As Donald Trump’s tariff plan slams the stock market, investors are beginning to wonder if the president doesn’t have some broader economic agenda—but rather if he’s just mentally ill.
“In the last few days, we have had many conversations with macro fund managers,” wrote Tom Lee, the head of research at the financial analysis firm FSInsights.
“All I want to say to people in the ALP ( a was a member at university, but let it slip) that are the driving QLD campaign is this:
in 2012, Labor lost power with 6-7seats …
in 2024, they lost power and held 36 seats ( including Mansfield, Aspley, Mt Ommaney< Springwood, Cooper, Greenslopes, Ferny Hills, even they won South Brisbane…even Gavan..?
People in Brisbane, with reason or fear, will vote for Labor."
@Damon
I don't think it that's simple. After Campbell Newman voters in Brisbane have more distrust with the LNP at the state level then they do with their federal colleagues. And yes the abortion issue did keep seats to Labor in Brisbane at the state election- but Newman's slash and burn polarising premiership also made moderate Brisbane voters reluctant to give the LNP another go. As one source said in the guardian the state LNP are 'too crazy' for Brisbane voters.
On top of that state issues (health, education) go to Labor strengths with voter perceptions and federal issues (immigration, economic management) go to Liberal strengths with voters perceptions. Is why state and federal elections are apples and oranges. There two very different beasts and it's not as simple state and federal results should mimic each other.
Dr Bonham has a tub thumping 2022 preference calculation…
And now it’s not just Morgan. #YouGov ALP 32 L-NP 33.5 GRN 13 ON 8.5 TOP 1 IND 9* other 3
* generic ballot, likely inflated
2PP 52.5 to ALP by YouGov modified prefs (I get 53.6 by 2022 prefs)
Could the LNP possibly end up sub _:_ ?
Norfolk Island was due to business/government dummies mistaking Norfolk Virginia regarding tariffs.
Trump Bump for incumbents notice people saying that electorate not focused on election then same people crowing about labors got it in bag.
18 month plus trend of labors vote until recently going backwards me thinks when closer to election they are going to focus the so called unwashed on labors failures which are many.
World News & Politics Patrol:
U.S. slaps 145% tariff on China in sharpest trade escalation yet: https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/policy/u-s-slaps-145-tariff-on-china-in-sharpest-trade-escalation-yet
Japan says it wants to join a NATO command for the support of Ukraine: https://apnews.com/article/japan-defense-nato-rutte-china-15de39e226c57a893fbf9755f600dcdb
UK supports plan for military tribunal to prosecute Putin for war crimes against Ukraine after US president withdrew all involvement: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/10/britain-backs-nuremberg-style-russia-trial-trump-opposition/
Ukrainian long-range strikes cut Russia’s shell fire rate by nearly half: https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-deep-strikes-cut-russias-ammunition-use-by-half-military-chief-says/
EU Sends Ukraine $1B From Interest of Frozen Russian Assets: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/50549
EU could tax big tech if Trump trade talks fail: https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-could-tax-big-tech-if-trump-trade-talks-fail-von-der-leyen-says-ft-2025-04-10/
Petition to protect UK food standards against chlorinated chicken hits 60,000 signatures: https://leftfootforward.org/2025/04/petition-to-protect-uk-food-standards-against-us-chlorinated-chicken-hits-60000-signatures/
Nigel Farage paid £40,000 by firm that helps super rich cut tax bills: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/farage-reform-tax-nomad-capitalist-b2730810.html
House votes to overturn Biden-era rule limiting bank overdraft fees to $5, sends to Trump to sign: https://apnews.com/article/overdraft-fees-bank-vote-house-senate-cra-8849f082f0f63e23d66602b8be90c653
Ocasio-Cortez: Colleagues ‘should probably disclose’ recent stock purchases now: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5242235-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-congress-stock-donald-trump-tariffs/
SAVE Act: House Passes GOP Voting Bill That Could Disenfranchise Millions: https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/house-passes-save-act-voter-suppression-law/
Trump Admin Faces ‘Insider Trading’ Investigation Over Stock Market Surge: https://www.newsweek.com/trump-admin-insider-trading-stock-markets-surge-2057766
RFK Jr. orders HHS to determine the cause of autism by September: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/rfk-jr-orders-hhs-to-determine-the-cause-of-autism-by-september
A bill aimed at restricting federal courts from using national injunctions to block White House actions has tensions simmering between some Republican members of Congress, as one GOP lawmaker came out on Thursday as a vocal opponent of the measure: https://www.courthousenews.com/gop-infighting-over-bill-to-restrict-nationwide-injunctions/
Johnson to budget holdouts: Remove me if I don’t keep my promises: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/04/10/congress/mike-johnson-spending-cuts-blood-oath-00283661
Florida teacher loses job for calling student by ‘preferred’ name: https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2025/04/09/florida-teacher-loses-job-for-calling-student-by-preferred-name/
There are new reports that the U.S. Department of Agriculture plans to dismantle its headquarters in D.C. and lay off thousands more workers: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/usda-close-down-dc-headquarters-lay-off-thousands-workers-report
Apple airlifts 600 tons of iPhones from India ‘to beat’ Trump tariffs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-airlifts-600-tons-iphones-india-to-beat-trump-tariffs-sources-say-2025-04-10/
All the polling actions on the liberal side but labor’s going nowhere.
Sprocket I’m just waiting for all the sane geniuses here at PB to once again downgrade their Labor projections in the house of reps following the drop of this latest yougov. Thus far only mj.
Climate 200 and little brother surely won’t be very happy with this 53-47 fake news. He’d want us all to believe it’s 50 -50 line ball so his teals can end up dominating the crossbench.
“Mexicanbeemersays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 7:05 am
All the polling actions on the liberal side but labor’s going nowhere.”
Excepting that 33.5 Coalition versus 32 Labor equals expanded majority
I would say that is “somewhere”
Baked in Sprocket.
Andy do you promise to be a good boy and endeavour to both read and accept some briefs and leave the submarine speak for the weekend ?
The Revisionistsays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 7:07 am
“Mexicanbeemersays:
Friday, April 11, 2025 at 7:05 am
All the polling actions on the liberal side but labor’s going nowhere.”
Excepting that 33.5 Coalition versus 32 Labor equals expanded majority
I would say that is “somewhere”
—————-
Didn’t labor poll 32% last election?
US bond rates have began heading north again. Slower than the other day but steady.
Remember shares for the show, bonds for the pro.