First up, note that the post below this one covers a new Victorian state poll from RedBridge Group. On to the latest from the federal campaign:
• Paul Sakkal of Nine Newspapers reports Labor is experiencing a surge of donations both from wealthy backers hoping to court favour with the party now favoured to win, and from small donors galvanised by hostility to Donald Trump.
• Ellen Ransley of The Nightly reports Labor is dedicating an extra $130,000 to campaigning in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson after its research suggested the race there was “closer than originally thought”. As with the last report broaching the possibility, it also notes that “LNP insiders insist they aren’t worried about the seat”.
• Local news site Fremantle Shipping News reports, without going into much detail, that independent hopeful Kate Hulett has successfully renounced her British citizenship and will be able to proceed as planned with her run for the federal seat of Fremantle. Hulett came within 424 votes of unseating state government minister Simone McGurk in the state seat of Fremantle last month. Last week she related on her podcast that she had been making multiple representations to British parliamentarians and to the Home Office and High Commission in an effort to get the matter resolved in time.
• Jeremy Neal, Liberal National Party candidate from the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, is distancing himself from “poorly worded” social media posts from between 2020 and 2022 in which he railed against COVID restrictions and vaccines, called for the ABC to be defunded, and expressed more enthusiasm for Donald Trump than is now considered politic. Labor is hoping the retirement of veteran incumbent Warren Entsch will give it a shot of overhauling the seat’s 3.4% margin.
• The Financial Review reports a uComms poll for Climate 200 has Allegra Spender, teal incumbent candidate for Wentworth, leading Liberal challenger Ro Knox 58-42 in Wentworth. The primary votes have Spender on 32.9%, Knox on 32.5% and Labor candidate Savanna Peake on 12.2%, with “nearly 7%” undecided. The report says the poll had a sample of 1015 but does not specify field work dates.
• The Australian reports a poll of Chris Bowen’s western Sydney seat of McMahon by Compass has independent Matt Camenzuli on 41%, the Liberals on 20% and Bowen on just 19%, as compared with 48.0% in 2022. Labor sources are said to be “dismissive”, and expect Camenzuli to come third. Camenzuli is an IT entrepreneur and former conservative Liberal activist who took Scott Morrison and others to court in 2022 after the party’s national executive took control of the federal preselection process. Compass is chiefly noted for finding strong support for conservative culture war positions for suitably disposed clients. The only voting intention poll I know it to have conducted was in North Sydney during the 2022 campaign, which found the eventual winner, teal independent Kylea Tink, running third on 13.6%, or barely more than half her actual result of 25.2%. The report does not identify who commissioned the poll, which was conducted by MMS and SMS from a sample of 1003 on dates unspecified, but I think I can guess.
The tech companies importing millions of indians to depress wages despite their shitty code (cf, windows 11) and to do their ubereats deliveries.
Anyone remember the first big fight between MAGA and Musk was Musk and the Indian fella whose name escapes me who wanted to keep getting rid of white people from the tech sector and replacing them with more Indians.
Fun bit of trivia about the Federal division of Monash. It roughly covers most of the 1927 State district of Gippsland South, which incidentally holds one of the records of the winning 2cp candidate having the lowest primary vote.
Independent candidate Henry Bodman won from a primary vote of 20.3%, of course very narrowly since it was very truly a 4-cornered contest between him and the Country, Labor and Nationalist parties.
In fact I do wonder why Thomas Anderson and David White of the Country Party felt the need to run against each other there in that year, it might have spared the Nationalist MP Walter West the humiliation of losing such a contest.
Finally the penny drops…
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/10/donald-trump-ignites-insider-trading-accusations-after-global-tariffs-u-turn
I seem to recall that it was relatively common for the Country Party to run multiple candidates in those days? The Country Party actually won McMillan (Monash’s predecessor) from third with something like a 17% primary in 1972, in quite similar circumstances to now (sitting Liberal member was disendorsed and recontested as an independent, only getting 6% himself but helping the Country Party get ahead of the Liberals with his preferences). I haven’t heard anything about the Nationals contesting this time, although as an open seat they in theory could.
BT @ #554 Thursday, April 10th, 2025 – 10:12 pm
So far it looks like the only seat in Victoria with both a Liberal and National candidate running is Bendigo, and since that seems to be fairly safe for Labor, probably won’t be a serious contest.
But surprises might arise tomorrow once the ballots are formally declared.
The Nationals seem to be throwing a bit of effort at Bendigo, which is a little surprising given they’ve only got their deposit back once in their last three attempts (and haven’t made double figures since 1990).
BT @ #556 Thursday, April 10th, 2025 – 10:26 pm
They did come close in Bendigo West in 2010, running Steven Oliver, a Carlton footballer as their candidate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2010_Victorian_state_election_(Legislative_Assembly)#Bendigo_West
Both the Nationalist and Country parties at that stage were pretty loose in terms of party structure. There could easily have been different branches in different towns who each had a candidate and head office was not going to play favourites. The Nationals were still sometimes doing that into the early 80s.
As it was Henry Bodman died shortly after taking office and Walter West won the by-election. But he then lost to a Country Party candidate in 1929. In Victoria at that stage, the Country and Nationalist parties were not on very friendly terms. And it wasn’t until the Kennett era that they first form a coalition.
B. S. Fairman @ #558 Thursday, April 10th, 2025 – 10:32 pm
Yeah, that’s true. Probably the most bizarre thing about pre-WW2 Victorian politics is that even though Labor held more seats than the Country party, they still supported the Country leader Albert Dunstan to be Premier from 1935-1943.
Also in this part of Victoria, Russell Northe won Morwell in 2018 with 19.5%, which must be pretty close to a record.
The CDP ran about a dozen candidates in a by-election in a safe Liberal seat when Rudd was PM (some nonsense about the 12 disciples?) – I think the AEC banned multiple candidates after that.
Thank you Trent yes the name is now instantly recognisable!
If that’s the case re gentrification and the moving on of the signs I’d not bother again.
Also sorry to you Trent for having a lot shit at you for daring running a counter comment to the partisan one way st that is PB.
I guess just like many others here there is only room for one conservative and that’s our beloved Lars VT.
As much as Andy and c@t might claim otherwise it is a tad troubling to see his extended absence.
He has old money connected subtly and comes from the old school pre teal educated metro broad church NSW Lib moderate classes.
I’m actually warming to pied piper because I can he is is reasonably smart and with a mischievous fitting which I like to see in bludgers.
I can’t think of how shit this site would be if Lars managed himself out to be replaced by the crass, tacky and simple nothing burgers that are Nath, Paul A and of course his half brother scrioll
Mavis says:
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 9:47 pm
C@tmomma:
Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 8:50 pm
[‘Mavis,
Yes, it’s something I noticed when I went to the West Coast of the US and was driving around Redmond, Washington State, which is where the headquarters of Microsoft is located. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw a Cricket Supplies shop!’]
Cat, while that is surprising, in the 1930s cricket was quite popular in California, at least among mainly British expat actors. There was even a Hollywood Cricket Club. Americans eschewed cricket as they thought it was too elitist & English.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/rewind-an-englishman-abroad-charles-aubrey-smith-and-the-story-of-hollywood-cc-784571
——————————————————————————————————————-
Ah C. Aubrey Smith, one of the great character actors of Hollywood’s Golden Age.
Here he is in excerpts from the great early musical Love Me Tonight with the beautiful Myrna Loy playing his man-crazy nympho niece.
This pre-code film had a witty and bawdy script, brilliant direction by Rouben Mamoulian that was way ahead of its time and a scintillating musical score by Rodgers and Hart..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgLqK_e8s6w
“Valentine, can you go for a doctor? Certainly, bring him right in.”
“Do you ever think about about anything but men? Yes, schoolboys.”
And one of the most imaginative musical episodes, starting with the incomparable Maurice Chevalier and ending with his costar Jeanette Macdonald and a classic Rodgers and Hart song.
And to think that this film is nearly 100 years old, just a couple years into the sound era.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGNQ7TrVDrg
Ha! No worries. I certainly don’t have a conservative lean, just not rusted onto the ALP and don’t understand the Michael Danby level of ALP v Greens hatred you see on here sometimes.
Raccoon Club wasn’t too different, still a dive bar, but it was just much busier than when I had been in the past and with a much more trendy crowd (perhaps it’s just different on Saturdays), and unfortunately no more framed vintage ALP signs. I guess Preston is no longer as deep-red as it once was as it’s become more like Thornbury.
Speaking of Michael Danby, he and Tony Lupton have teamed up to start a Facebook group called Macnamara Voters Against Extremism, advocating to put the Greens last.
Paul A you are obviously hurting .
I’m honoured by the amount of time you spent to retrieve that.
I’d also hope a sober you would be able to outwit the 23 standard drinks into it leftie brawler.- not by much of course but you’d still be declared winner by count back
All good leftie brawler.
WB did a big “snip”, but your original posts are all still sitting there from April 5th.
Might come in handy down the track. I’ll remember.
We have another pontificator on this site – he believed Alaska would turn Democrat.
Always good to remind these sorts of posters when required.
Good night.
“Andy big “E”.
Which 3 seats in Vic do you think are in strife for your lot?”
_____
My 3 seats lost prediction was made at the beginning of the year. I preferred to think of seats in play, rather than predict which ones would actually change hands. I think the lists referred to by Milner and Kos probably give a pretty good indication of which ones were at least ‘in play’ at the beginning of the year. The MRP polling done my both RedBridge and YouGov would also indicate ‘where the winds were blowing’ and ‘how strong are those winds blowing’ at the time of the polling BUT they do not provide a reliable indicator of individual seat outcomes. However the last MRP recently has shown that the headwinds that Labor faces in Victoria have abated substantially, which is also backed up by movements towards labor in more traditional polling for Victoria over the last month.
At the moment I’d say Aston, Dunkley, Chilsolm and perhaps the Greens targeted seats are still ‘in play’, but the situation for Labor’s position does appear to be improving pretty rapidly. I’d also now say (shout out to Scotty) that perhaps Deakin and Menzies are also in play again. … and the Teals will be comfortably returned.
Paul A I see a bit of a trouble maker in you if I’m to be completely honest.
I think you’ve got it in you to reach the dizzying PB rabble rouser levels of the Mk 1 versions of bush fire bill and leftie brawler- sans the insightful, devil may care witty and intriguing commentaries.
You mentioned man with the big stick.
You also need to understand that he is omnipresent as you may have just found out for yourself in the last 10 minutes.
You may also learn the hard lesson of man with big stick’s particular disapprovals of dredging up done and dusted ancient history for purposes not compatible with the continued established and accepted PB hegemony.
Only time will tell if you try to touch the fire one too many times.
When I, Nath, Lars , c@t, Andy E , Rex, boer , entropy et al appear to be giving it to one another it is little more than some good natured back and forth. There is no actual intent or malignancy to it below the surface.
But you appear to genuinely be angry. Don’t be angry Paul A. Just go with the flow.
So now Dutton is promising to remove the Vehicle Efficiency Standards, because ….. Australians deserve cars with worse fuel economy?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-10/coalition-to-dump-fuel-efficiency-laws/105162808
Its like 2013 all over again. Like Abbott, Dutton’s only plan is to destroy Labor achievements. He has no plan to improve the country.
Also, judging by this move, Dutton; has all but given up any hope of recapturing the Teal seats. That means there is no possibility of a Dutton majority government IMO. Night all.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=hooked+on+a+feeling&atb=v314-1&ia=videos&iax=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DWqt_iZBvtCo
On that, goodnight from me!
Goodnight been there- the ever Loyal Beazley to my Hawke.
A friend indeed .
Why Trump’s approval rating is still so high: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oWwX-KvewBo
Team Katich 907pm
Thanks for posting that Nate Silver article.
It reminded me of something I read early this year I think by a retired US judge about what could the justice system do if Trump and his acolytes just refused to follow judicial orders (pretty prescient in light of a few recent things)
He talked about going after the lawyers, but realising that federal convictions could be pardoned by Trump. He said the lawyers could be disbarred. But ultimately he said that chaos in the stock and bond markets brought on by people treating America like a banana republic would cause the administration to come to their senses (relatively).
I’ll try and find the article.
New thread.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/16/opinion/what-if-trump-defies-courts.html
Highlights –
If a court is met with extended and clear recalcitrance, it will most likely take that as definitive evidence that the government is intentionally refusing to comply. Government lawyers who make misrepresentations to a court about the government’s actions could face serious professional discipline, including potential disbarment. So, too, could any other administration officials who are lawyers and participate in defying a court order.
The court may consider holding the noncomplying officials in contempt of court. Merely threatening executive officials with contempt can sometimes be enough to induce sufficient compliance to de-escalate the situation.
In our political environment, the prospect or reality of a contempt threat might not bring any sense of shame or rebuke; some officials might instead consider it a badge of honor or a mark of loyalty.
*****
Here again, the president may raise the stakes by ordering line-level U.S. marshals not to enforce the court order or by directing the head of the Marshals Service or the attorney general not to issue such an order.
***
An administration that was openly ordering more and more government officials to flout the courts and the law would most likely face significant costs outside the judiciary. The U.S. economy enjoys a “safe harbor premium.” The longstanding stability and certainty of our independent judicial system guarantee reliable protection of contract and property rights, which in turn enables long-term investments by the U.S. business community and attracts immense foreign investment in the economy.
The chaos precipitated by so radically destabilizing the judiciary and the rule of law might well have serious economic consequences, including in the stock markets. Foreign investment would likely flee the country; the dollar would fall. This would bring added pressure on the White House to comply with the courts and on Congress to demand such compliance.
Judicial independence and the stability of the rule of law take generations to establish in a credible, durable way. A foolish administration that seeks to defy the courts for short-term political gains or simply to show its “dominance” of other institutions would soon seek shelter from the whirlwind it would undoubtedly unleash.
Was Albert Dunstan any relation to Don Dunstan, Kirsdarke?
All US markets down including NASDAQ 4.3%
YouGov’s latest Public Data poll reveals that Labor has extended its lead over the Coalition in the race for the upcoming Federal election, while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has strengthened his position as the preferred Prime Minister.
Labor now leads the Coalition 52.5% to 47.5% in the two-party preferred vote, marking a 1.5% increase from last week’s public poll. This result YouGov’s highest two-party preferred vote for Labor in 18 months, slightly surpassing the Labor party’s winning result in the 2022 Federal Election.
https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/51999-yougov-poll-labor-extends-lead-over-coalition-to-525-475
Paul Krugman…
Question of the day: Does the 10 percent rate still apply to the penguins of the Heard and McDonald islands?
University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers….
“US government bonds, that’s how we fund the government debt, typically regarded as the safest asset in the world because the US government is in charge of an amazing economy and we’d never screw things up.
And safe is the important word here. Like an investment advisor would tell you, do you want to be safe? Do you want to rest easy?
Safety. It’s our safe space. It’s our economic safe space.
It’s the only thing safer than money under the mattress.
Yes, money under, right, right, right.”
I think money under the mattress is the best bet